Former gasoline blender, refinery economist, and oil market forecaster here.
Different than No. 2 Diesel and related Kero/Jet/No. 1, Gasoline gets less expensive each fall and into the winter because of the two factors of the law of Supply and Demand acting at the same time.
Supply: More volume of gasoline is able to be made in the colder months because the specifications (primarily governed by ASTM D-4814) require more butane and other light molecules be added so that there is enough vapor in cold weather to allow the engine to start. The farther north you go, the higher the Reid Vapor Pressure allowed. When I was in Chicago, the RVP spec for mid winter was 15psi. When the sample bottle was brought into the warm lab and the lid taken off, it would bubble. On average, about 10% additional butane is blended into gasoline in the winter than the summer. This is 10% more SUPPLY.
Demand: Gasoline demand drops after Labor Day because people are driving less for vacation and outings. It’s not a whole lot of demand reduction but it is measurable. You can see miles driven each month on the US DOT web site.
More Supply and Less Demand = lower prices.
Diesel/Jet/Kero have an opposite effect going on. Supply generally remains the same as there is not a seasonal spec issue to the same degree as gasoline, but demand increases for these molecules in the winter because of Heating demand. This effect has reduced over time as heating oil has been increasingly replaced by natural gas, but there is an increment of additional demand in the US and Northern Europe. In this tight diesel market, that additional amount makes a big impact.
Careful, I’ve never seen a real economist refer to supply and demand as a singular law like this guy does (it’s two separate laws, a mistake very common with people who want to pretend they know economics). Also, the comment has no peer-reviewed citations which would be very important for real economists. It’s highly likely just a Redditor spouting bullshit with fake credentials.
Edit: More likely AI generated actually, since the phrasing and mistake matches some AAA website training data. This also tracks with the lack of citation.
I have a phd in commentology from Stanford. You seem to be suffering from pretendinitis and your requirement for peer-reviewed citation contains no peer-reviewed citation. Therefore I deem your comment to be bullshittery and pedantic.
Except it's wrong. The primary driver of price is almost always the brent crude price. Sure those other things play a factor, and the article notes similar things as well. But at the end of the day, it's not the primary reason it's going down.
Just like has always been the case with reddit, what sounds good is more important than what is right. And RTFA.
Fair point. And partially true because more oil is making it out, although this has nothing to do with the increased supply at the pump the post in question is talking snout.
But price has gone down on speculation that the diplomacy between the US and Iran is ramping up
It’s not wrong. Gas always goes down a bit in the fall for the above reasons (outlined in the article too, with less technical clarity). Reminder that even though it’s lower now due to the annual switch, it’s stillmore than $1/gallon higher than it was a year ago.
Well, no, it doesn't always come down in the fall. It just tends to because of what the top level comment describes. We only have to go back to 2021 to see an example of the opposite.
Saying this always applies downward pressure on the price is accurate, but saying it's the primary driver of current downward trends in price is inaccurate.
But I have to again reiterate how all-time reddit this is. The explanation is in the article which even includes discussing what this comment is talking about. But, as is typical for reddit and always has been, noone reads the article. Lol
Wait, so there are different additives in gasoline in the winter vs. The summer? And gasoline from a pump in Florida has different additives than in new hampshire?
My guy, appreciate the well detailed response but the war hungry president just got neutered. The world knows the war will be over as soon as the new congress is sworn in.
How do you think we're going to end the war? Israel-captured democrats aren't willing to surrender to Iran any more than the republicans are. Unlike every other imbroglio we've gotten ourselves into, this one we can't just end by going home and leaving them alone.
Correct. But unlike every other imbroglio we've gotten ourselves into, this one we can't just end by going home and leaving them alone.
Supposing we do that. They still control the strait. They're still exchanging missiles with Israel, and if they want to our "allies" in the gulf. Their allies, the Houthis, still threaten all of Saudi Arabia's oil production. We have bases all over the region they can continue to strike or blockade.
It would be better. We absolutely should do it. I completely agree. But Vietnam couldn't do anything to the US once the US left. Afghanistan couldn't follow us across a continent and an ocean. Iraq might have been able to hypothetically strike at bases in the region, but they didn't have a chokehold on global trade.
This is the cost of losing a war. We attempted to use our force to get Iran to comply with our will. We have discovered that the amount of force that would be required is much more than we were expecting to have to spend, and much more than we are willing to spend.
If our goal is to sit around and say "we don't like this!" while doing nothing that's capable of changing that reality (my how Trumpers have discovered they actually love sanctions in the past six months), we're doing a great job of that.
I get that since you guys have no actual policy to point to, you just accuse everyone else of being a bot. But having seen this same playbook used by corporate Dems in 2006, as an anti-war voter who wore out shoes pounding the streets for the Democrats to see them continue the mideast wars, you don't know what the fuck you're babbling about.
I gave sources elsewhere in the thread - now fuck off and admit you're an idiot.
> and can say that democrats supported that due to the fake intel bush gave them.
Oh, nevermind, you already did admit you're an idiot here. A child could see that the Bush admin was lying (and plenty did). The removal of Blix alone made it obvious.
Much like yourself, any Democratic politician that was fooled either wanted to be, or is such an idiot they're not qualified to be a dog catcher, much less in control of the US government.
Hilariously, you just did the Republican Side Step. You bypassed the linked evidence to attack, and gave the traditional "look it up" response rather than sharing the link or even just linking the comment in question where you cited sources.
But you know what? Self doubt is important. Admitting when you are wrong is important. In any reasonable debate, you must verify. So I looked it up**.**
The vote to invade Iraq in 2002 was less than two weeks before the midterms. During that time, the Democrats held 50 seats to the 49 Republican seats and 1 Independent seat in the senate, and they had fewer seats than Republicans in the House.
Not sure if you were around then, but the majority of America was in Moron Mode at the time. They were angry, stupidly angry. The Republicans were already labeling everyone with the slightest objection as unamerican, and it was working.
In spite of that, more than half of the Democrats in both house and senate voted against the invasion. At a time where a significant majority of Americans were pro-invasion, and not falling in line could cost them, they none the less voted against it.
No, Democrats are not lilly pure and white. We got our own assholes, like Schumer, the paragon of corpo Democrats. But "most" did not vote for Iraq II, and "most" did not vote for Iran. If you bothered to look at the link the other person provided, it gives a handy list with links to the actual results of all 14 votes against the Iranian invasion, and all of them were party line against the war except for bloody Fetterman.
You are factually wrong with directly linked evidence on hand to prove it, and you will never admit it, because god forbid we dare to actually check sources and admit failure when caught out. At best, you're no better than what you oppose, mindless in your fury, and at worst this entire argument is in bad faith. Either way, there was little point in bothering to do all this colossal waste of time, but at least I was willing to double check my beliefs.
You mean like accusing everyone who doesn't want to believe in the nonsense seen time and time again from the Democratic leadership a bot?
> and gave the traditional "look it up" response
Right here, exactly where I said it was. You, however, were far too busy getting on your soapbox about how only you are a good person, and everyone else is apparently a Republican.
Yeah, I was in the streets getting tear gassed opposing the war. The one supported by the same ghouls you're defending.
Funny enough, I could see the intel was bullshit. Millions others could. Tell me, how are we then not more qualified to lead than the idiots you're idiotically defending here?
> The Republicans were already labeling everyone with the slightest objection as unamerican, and it was working.
And it was working because the Democrats were going along with it. Which is why even someone as milquetoast as Dean was slandered, because his support was for actually having the temerity to oppose the war.
Which, of course, is the same nonsense we see now.
> and you will never admit it, because god forbid we dare to actually check sources
See above, dumbshit.
> Either way, there was little point in bothering to do all this colossal waste of time
Oh, there was the point. To reinforce your belief that only you are actually intelligent, and anyone that doesn't agree with your belief that's all that's needed it to vote harder for Team Blue and it will all be OK.
> but at least I was willing to double check my beliefs.
Of course you weren't. You were willing to waste time reinforcing them - but not to check exactly where you were told to.
Tell you what, let's see what happens in January. I have a feeling THE PARLIMENTARIAN might decide the war has to go on, and Chuck will "reluctantly" agree.
Also iran was running itself ragged in the strait to get the oil price up for the mid term, and now they have to resupply.Saudis did the same in 2022, just with turning the tap down a little instead of downing tonnage.
Careful, I’ve never seen a real economist refer to supply and demand as a singular law like this guy does (it’s two separate laws). Also, the comment has no peer-reviewed citations which would be very important for real economists. It’s highly likely just a Redditor spouting bullshit.
Wow, that article has the same phrasing and makes the same mistake. It’s now clear that the comment was AI-generated with that article as training data.
Yeah that comment certainly wasn’t AI generated. If you think an AI makes the grammar mistakes seen above, you must not use AI often. Maybe we can try the EIA on for size.
Prompt: “give me an explanation of gas price changes using the grammar of a typical Reddit post”
ChatGPT:
Title: Why tf are gas prices going up anddown? (An explanation for anyone whodoesn't want to major in economics)
Okay, so basically, gas prices are kind of likethat one friend who can't make up their mind.
One week you're paying $3.20 a gallon,and the next week it's $3.80. Like bro,WHAT HAPPENED??
Here's the breakdown: 1. Crude oil prices 📈
Gasoline starts as crude oil, so when crudeoil gets more expensive, gas usually follows.
Wars or conflicts can mess with oil supplies.
Oil-producing countries can decideto pump less oil.
Higher global demand can push prices up.
Basically, less oil available + people stillneeding gas = 💀 your wallet.
…etc, didn’t copy the rest to save space
Key points: also no citations, says whatever is popular with possibly some correct info mixed in.
Ah yes, let’s explicitly tell AI to have bad grammar, and then act like that’s the norm for AI. Let’s be real here, you came across as snarky and asked for citations. When someone came along with citations that prove the original comment, IT MUST BE AI! Can you not fathom that some people do know things that aren’t common knowledge? Enjoy learning about different gas blends. Keep yelling at the clouds, you folks bring me daily entertainment.
Not an expert at all but I’ve read also recently that the waning hours of day light and the the end of day light savings time also reduce demand as people tend to drive less when it’s dark.
The main driver is the falling price of Brent crude oil, which is now down to about $90 a barrel, and which is what refineries need to make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
That price is falling because there's a bit more oil coming out of the Middle East via pipelines, and because market traders have rejoiced at the intensifying diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran.
Feels like I see a post about a blown up oil tanker every other day, and I thought Houthi’s were blowing up the pipelines. How is more oil successfully coming out of the Middle East??
We already had a treaty that prevented Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
One of Trump’s strategic fuckups was tearing up that agreement because he had a childish disdain for the guy who made the deal.
Then, another one of Trump’s strategic fuckups was to start a war that broke the world oil economy to get Iran to not-do what Iran already agreed to not-do under Obama. And that deal would have worked if only we’d held up our end of the deal — which we didn’t under Trump!
Trump is truly a stupid fucking moron when it comes to geopolitical strategy — and our nation is in a much weaker position as a result.
As Iran was successfully, and predicably, able to increase the price of gas before an election, the Democrats were able to sweep the election. Having accomplished this goal, and Trump saying he's not into it anymore, the assumption is that it'll peter out.
Of course, Iran will be interested to maintain control of the strait. Trump would like everyone to believe he's a big strong guy and can make choices good for his portfolio at any moment. So we'll see if it fruits
While tankers and pipelines are still being attacked throughout the Middle East, oil production and exports have actually recovered substantially from their lows earlier this year.
According to the EIA, approximately 10.9 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude production were shut in at the peak of the conflict in May. By October, that figure had fallen to approximately 2.54 million barrels per day, meaning roughly 77% of the disrupted production had been restored.
A major reason is that producers have adapted. Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its East-West Pipeline to move crude to the Red Sea, entirely bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE has similar infrastructure, while exporters have also expanded ship-to-ship transfers near Oman.
There’s also a speculative component to falling oil prices. Markets are pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic resolution, reducing the geopolitical risk premium on crude.
The important distinction is that Middle Eastern oil production and exports are recovering relative to the worst months of the conflict, not that the region has returned to normal. The infrastructure remains vulnerable, and a successful attack on a major export pipeline or terminal could still reverse these improvements relatively quickly.
There is increased flow through the SoH but the cost for tanker transportation is now about $30/bbl instead of $3. Tanker owners get a premium for putting their vessels at risk, the crew get a bit more, the insurance companies get more, and the cost of reverse lightering off Fujariah has increased and is an added step. So, while the flow is back up, the marginal step of getting that barrel out of the Gulf is setting the price. When those costs unwind, prices will fall but perhaps not as much as one might think, there is a new demand layer that will need to be satisfied: refilling stocks that were drained.
Look at Malacca not Hormuz for a more accurate picture. Tanker traffic is almost back to pre-war levels.
Oil is being shuttled through Hormuz by state owned tankers, and a few companies willing to take the risk, but they are doing this at night, running dark, AIS off, so they are not reported to normal tracking data.
This has been the case for months, and has been widely reported on. At this point I have to question the motivations of people who still wilfully do not accept what is taking place.
I think the cost of moving the oil this way is higher (risk taking ships doing the back and forth across the strait, then transferring the oil to the ships that will take the oil to market). Efficiency is down due to having to do things this way.
There are also hidden costs, such as US military escorts, as well as attrition.
Yes, if this is the new status quo, gas prices will stay higher than pre-war, but we should still see further drops in prices. The major factor leading to the highest peaks of gas prices this year was the supply glut caused by the first months of the war, when neither side was getting any oil out, and the subsequent drop in refined product as many of the worlds major refining nations drasticaly cut their production, to conserve their oil reserves.
We are just now experiencing the effects of the oil supply returning as countries like China only started firing up their refinering capacity months after the oil supply had already stabalised. Gas is just a lagging indicator.
This is the real answer and I’m glad at least someone here understands it. The lead time from oil being loaded on to a VLCC to refined product reaching a gas station can be months. When crude transfers from the gulf started to recover a few months ago, there was already a massive deficit of oil in transit and at refineries. Prices at the pump are only now beginning to reflect that recovery which shouldn’t come as a surprise. This has been forecasted for quite a while now.
Oil tanker blowing up brings in more clicks than pipelines being built. Also we just finished the election. Need to get as much negative information out as possible to win
If there’s more oil than before the war than why is my diesel still like 60% more expensive than pre war? They have control of that still which is making everything still expensive here
For one week there was more oil. Then there’s an 8 week lag time to even get that oil to us refineries. What’s important is that the week before the election the administration risked the lives of US sailors to a greater degree so they could make the claim that oil flow was back to normal. The reason we haven’t been escorting tankers through the straight to that degree the whole time is because Iran can sink any one of our Naval escorts if they wanted to and there’s nothing we could do to stop them. It’s a huge unmitigated risk. It’s the whole reason we don’t have battle ships and air craft carriers parked out there. We can’t protect them. Period.
And for those that don't know: Saudi Arabia has ungoldy amounts of oil and is and has been for a loooong time the margin price setter. As much as people politically might hate the regime, being in their favor is an incredible source of US power.
The article cites a few other contributors if you actually read it:
One reason: It's no longer summer, which is the peak season for gas. (Fewer people drive in colder weather, AAA points out.) With less demand, there's a touch more gas on the market.
Refineries also finish their annual maintenance by late fall. So that adds a bit more gas to go around.
And the blend of gasoline that's on the market gets cheaper.
Refineries make two types of gasoline every year: summer and winter blends. The summer blend produces less smog, because it evaporates less quickly in the heat; the winter blend helps engines start up in freezing weather, and uses a bit more butane, which helps lower its cost.
It sounds like we are exiting peak oil consumption season but you’re saying refiners are also just finishing annual maintenance - so refiners shut down during peak season?? Is that because gasoline isn’t their focus?
That's more 2022. When Oil hit and stuck to $120, over the thought and fear of Russia's 3% of global production capacity being hindered by sanctions. Now we have shortages in Russia with their refineries being taken offline, Aramco having to purchase diesel, and the rest of the Middle East issues. The SPR's are still at record lows, refining capacity is still maxed out. Yes, the domestic oil fields continued their progression of record production since 2021, but supply lines are still tight like the ramp up from Trump's covid oil production reduction deal. Ultimately when it comes to futures and trading, the feelings of those making the deals matter more than the overall reality, until physical shortages hit. There's enough logistical magic happening to keep those shortages at bay, but there's no good reason it should be that cheap considering winter is coming. At best you can thank BYD and China for demand destruction through solar and electrification.
diesel still $6.75/gal in michigan so it doesn’t really matter. I can control how much i drive because my employer pays for my commute. I can’t control how much the shipping companies have to pay to get the products i want to buy to the store
Came to point this out - whatever pressure has reduced gas, it's had *zero* impact on diesel, which means every product shipped by truck or train, not to mention all the farm equipment, is still just as expensive as it was before these drops.
You’re being downvoted but you aren’t wrong. The US is exporting about 1.3 million barrels of diesel per day at the moment. Down from 1.5 million a couple of weeks ago, but still 1.3 is crazy high compared to any other year.
I’d only add that we may be in a recession for the consumer already. But only for maybe 75-80% of us.
There exists a larger, more wealthy, 20-25% who are thus far immune to recession at this severity. And we know GDP can remain positive, very much so, due to that 20-25% of the consumer, and a now much larger non-consumer component, in an arms race currently to build out via capex spending in the AI competition.
TLDR: gas drops severely when demand drops off. A recession is the usual cause.
I think I’m on your side, but that’s a trick question as there is no real simple definition the other user could quote - there is a simplification of a rule of thumb but it’s actually decided by a group without any easily quantifiable/quotable metrics.
Unimportant. Households of lower and middle income levels are pulling back. Upper income households haven’t pulled back…yet. And there are more of them than ever before, which is a good thing.
But there are many more millions of households feeling recessionary conditions. They drive distances to work. They have jobs for now, but that income isn’t keeping pace.
Winter blend gas is cheaper and easing of geopolitical risk reduces futures pricing which sets wholesale pricing.
The reverse was the main drivers of the process soaring. Everyone knows the price of gas skyrocketed because oil shipments essentially ended due to the Iran war but it was already going to go up for seasonal reasons. Double whammy. Fortunately, the stable genius didn’t even try to blame the season for the gas prices.
Trump waived the RFG rules set by the US EPA. He did not have the power to waive the state level specifications and the internal specifications of refiners that are primarily based on ASTM D-4814 that requires lower volatility gasoline in the summer so that cars can operate. No refiner is going to make a product that isn’t fit for purpose and saleable.
Really? I swear I remember articles about summer blend causing a 75 cent+ surge in one day in May. I saw it jump across all of Michigan when I drove across it that week.
It's the change of seasons, so they change the fuel mix. More butane is mixed in during the winter months. Prices go down slightly, but I also notice gas mileage going down slightly in my car. So, it's a wash for me anyway.
There’s a few other factors in the change in fuel economy as well. Cooler air means higher density which means your car’s computer increases fuel volume to compensate. And, longer engine warm up time means more fuel used in the first several minutes of driving, as the engine wants to reach operating temperature as soon as it can for efficiency and emissions reasons.
This is true. Because of the design qualities of my car's engine it's warmed up for 3 minutes at every start-up. And I use Top-Tier Premium (the car requires premium, and additive packages in gasoline extend the life of the block), so I haven't seen under $4 for gas since the start of the war.
Many states, mine included, have allowed gas companies to sell winter blend gas all summer to try to cut the costs. At least here, that is not the reason.
Colder weather means boats and RVs have been parked for the season (which is typical for this time of year). Also, the Strait of Hormuz has had more traffic flowing through it lately.
Because a ton of oil is getting through the strait at great expense fully subsidized by the US taxpayer. That coupled with a full shift to winter blend and refineries running nonstop to make diesel will drive gasoline prices down.
I don’t think winter blend is making much difference. Butane for November it’s trading at $1.95 a gallon. That 130 percent increase from last year. Demand us down. East West pipeline is back up. Strait of Hormuz is still crippled. Iran bombed 37 ships in October. 11 ships so far this month. It’s still a shit show over there. U.S. just walked away. Because high gas prices were unpopular.
Butane vs isooctane spread is what matters, not the nominal butane price.
Also a ton of oil is coming out, as shown by the production numbers from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. We don't see the real cost of it because the US navy absorbs it all without passing it on (except to taxpayers!)
Iran stopped droning oil transport ships to reduce attacks and release more crude oil through the strait, Iran did it to apply pressures so GOP would lose. They did the same with Carter and the the US hostages, its an old script.
It’s the seasonal shift, this is normal and happens every year. Reminder: It’s also still $1/gallon higher than it was in January, on average, nationwide.
The main driver is the US putting excessive strain on the refining capacity. This is the time of year when companies dial back production for maintenance and repair. That has been sidelined and refining is continuing at 98% capacity or higher. Prices will continue to moderate until there are issues at the refinery level, then they will spike again.
Because prices are being manipulated. The people pulling the strings aren’t really trying to hide it much anymore. We’ve all been robbed and now different folks will come in and change a few things. Make it look like stuff is being set back right. Then the talk will start again about how these poor non working individuals are freeloading and folks will see red again. Then it’s back to robbing us all again.
The working people in this country are asleep. Wake up America. We’re being farmed. Farmed for our time, productivity and resourcefulness. It’s our lives they are taking. The best years.
So I guess you’re saying OPEC was anti Trump (presumably because of the war’s impact on their ability to sell oil, and all the collateral damage) and so therefore they worked to get Dems elected?
Individual gas stations don’t set their own prices, they get directives from the owners as to what they should set the prices to, and since profit margins are so low almost every station belongs to a chain
The pricing is often algorithmic and affects the entire chain so prices will rise and fall in huge areas all at the same time
Specifically the price and oil dropped because Global oil futures dropped 13% because of de-escalation talks with iran, Democrats winning the White House meaning the wars days are likely numbered, as well as possible negotiations between Ukrainian and Russia. Also shortly before the election Trump ignored the sanctions against Russia and bought oil from Russia. However this was not enough to reduce gas prices by a large margin.
Smallish point of order, the Democrats did not Win the White House, as that is the next big election, this was mid-term, now the DNC did have massive but not veto-proof controlling wins in both the House and the Senate, plus a ton of state governorship.
Don't bother here, this subreddit keeps popping up in my feed, and every single time I go into the comments, the rhetoric is based entirely on vibes, rather than any sound economic theory.
FFS there is a guy responding to you getting more upvotes by claiming this is the result of OPEC lmao.
Across the board the quality of conversation on this site has continued to drop, but there's still subreddits like this that stand out with the distinct feeling it's just 90% comprised of bots talking to bots.
My brother's Sundays Sams Club gas run cost per gallon has dropped from 479 to 429 and most recently 379 in the past 3 weeks. Part of it is normal seasonal demand falling off a bit. Some of it is the elections too I think.
The only answer: Trump now has checks and balances rather than the spineless republicans in the majority. His war powers will be limited, the war will ramp down, manipulation in the market by the administration will be investigated and stop, and market volatility will chill. Markets like predictability.
Gasoline prices are based on futures. Look it up. The market thinks that the democrats are going to do something about this ridiculous pedo-distraction war.
Yeah but trump claims credit for stuff the instant he won when he had not done anything and yet years later he still blames the other guy for things that trump did.
It is perfectly reasonable to think adults might be charge again would have some effect on the markets
And "illegal wars look like having an end in the near future" doesn't mean gas companies are going to preemptively lower their prices, since the present price pressures haven't changed.
>But none of those are the biggest reason why gas prices are falling, says Jorge León, head of geopolitics at the research group Rystad Energy. The main driver is the falling price of Brent crude oil, which is now down to about $90 a barrel, and which is what refineries need to make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
>That price is falling because there's a bit more oil coming out of the Middle East via pipelines, and because market traders have rejoiced at the intensifying diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran.
The price of gas is a distilled single number that represents a complex web of interactions that moves it from dinosaur to diesel at the pump.
Expectations that there will be a ceasefire or end to hostility (and therefore more future supply) makes the current value of the commodity all along the pipeline today go down.
Before the election a trader may have assumed future supply would continue to be squeezed. Now he is looking at the new Congress and thinking they are going to force a deal. In scenario 1 it is better to hold onto a barrel of oil (reducing current supply) with the assumption you can sell it at a higher price in 6 months. Now they may just unwind the trade (dumping the oil in the market today, Lowering today's prices) because holding isn't worth the carrying cost.
They never heard of demand destruction or low winter season demand or the price difference between summer gas formulas and winter gas formulas. If everyone knew how shit worked, Reddit would be a ghost town.
Neither party controls the global oil market on a week to week basis. Gas spiked earlier this year because the Iran conflict choked off Middle East shipping and it’s dropping now because refineries switched to cheaper winter grade fuel, autumn demand fell, and crude prices cooled off. Presidents and Congress don't have a gas price dial on their desks. Amazing how voting blue lowered gas prices two months before anyone they voted for actually takes office.
Red hatted morons suddenly have economics degrees when their rapist in chief actually fucks up everything including oil prices and tells people to cope.
Orange man even talked Opec and Russia into cutting production by the largest amount ever in a deal. Price per barrel of oil went negative during that time.
This is just wholly inaccurate. Even adjusting for inflation the Biden term had much higher gas prices than Trumps first term. And this is a trend across the last ~30 years:
Democrats (Clinton, Obama, Biden): about $3.45
Republicans (Bush Sr., Bush Jr., Trump 1, Trump 2): about $3.18
It’s obviously a political strategy when moving towards renewables to deprioritize gas and this is the result but let’s call a spade a spade.
The Democrats are probably gonna ruin the country by letting the cheap reliable workers enter the country, forget to tariff our allies, provide “entitlements” for the undeserving,and probably gonna stop blowing up children.
Uzed2BFaster | 9 hours ago
Former gasoline blender, refinery economist, and oil market forecaster here.
Different than No. 2 Diesel and related Kero/Jet/No. 1, Gasoline gets less expensive each fall and into the winter because of the two factors of the law of Supply and Demand acting at the same time.
Supply: More volume of gasoline is able to be made in the colder months because the specifications (primarily governed by ASTM D-4814) require more butane and other light molecules be added so that there is enough vapor in cold weather to allow the engine to start. The farther north you go, the higher the Reid Vapor Pressure allowed. When I was in Chicago, the RVP spec for mid winter was 15psi. When the sample bottle was brought into the warm lab and the lid taken off, it would bubble. On average, about 10% additional butane is blended into gasoline in the winter than the summer. This is 10% more SUPPLY.
Demand: Gasoline demand drops after Labor Day because people are driving less for vacation and outings. It’s not a whole lot of demand reduction but it is measurable. You can see miles driven each month on the US DOT web site.
More Supply and Less Demand = lower prices.
Diesel/Jet/Kero have an opposite effect going on. Supply generally remains the same as there is not a seasonal spec issue to the same degree as gasoline, but demand increases for these molecules in the winter because of Heating demand. This effect has reduced over time as heating oil has been increasingly replaced by natural gas, but there is an increment of additional demand in the US and Northern Europe. In this tight diesel market, that additional amount makes a big impact.
Capt0bvi0us | 5 hours ago
This comment reminds me of old reddit before it was taken over by bots and extra-amateur comedians.
Mrexcellent | an hour ago
About halfway through that read I was 95% sure the undertaker was going to show back in 1998 and throw mankind off hell in a cell
ThreeGoldStars | 3 hours ago
"extra-amateur comedians"
eXtRa-imMatuRe cOmediAnS
SecondBestNameEver | 2 hours ago
This guy comedians /s
Thisismyfinalstand | an hour ago
There we go, new reddit comments wouldn't be complete without the sarcastic assholes who contribute nothing. (Yes, I'm the plural part of that.)
InvertedEyechart11 | 32 minutes ago
Hey, comedian gotta comedian 🙄
Jonnny | 17 minutes ago
Same. Ahh those days, back before nation-states and corporations decided this was a public thought arena to be psyop'd...
TheGoldenMonkey | 5 minutes ago
Any "public space" will eventually be co-opted by corporations and entities pushing their agendas.
SliFi | an hour ago
Careful, I’ve never seen a real economist refer to supply and demand as a singular law like this guy does (it’s two separate laws, a mistake very common with people who want to pretend they know economics). Also, the comment has no peer-reviewed citations which would be very important for real economists. It’s highly likely just a Redditor spouting bullshit with fake credentials.
Edit: More likely AI generated actually, since the phrasing and mistake matches some AAA website training data. This also tracks with the lack of citation.
upvoatsforall | 51 minutes ago
I have a phd in commentology from Stanford. You seem to be suffering from pretendinitis and your requirement for peer-reviewed citation contains no peer-reviewed citation. Therefore I deem your comment to be bullshittery and pedantic.
eptesicusfuscus | an hour ago
"It's highly likely" you didn't verify any of the claims. I did. It's a solid answer.
UnableChard2613 | an hour ago
Except it's wrong. The primary driver of price is almost always the brent crude price. Sure those other things play a factor, and the article notes similar things as well. But at the end of the day, it's not the primary reason it's going down.
Just like has always been the case with reddit, what sounds good is more important than what is right. And RTFA.
Redtitwhore | an hour ago
But aren't supply & demand primary drivers of brent crude prices?
UnableChard2613 | 35 minutes ago
Fair point. And partially true because more oil is making it out, although this has nothing to do with the increased supply at the pump the post in question is talking snout.
But price has gone down on speculation that the diplomacy between the US and Iran is ramping up
DonEscapedTexas | 46 minutes ago
Brent is just one spec and a fraction of global supply
demand for petroleum is inelastic: plot out spot vs supply rate over the last century
wbruce098 | 46 minutes ago
It’s not wrong. Gas always goes down a bit in the fall for the above reasons (outlined in the article too, with less technical clarity). Reminder that even though it’s lower now due to the annual switch, it’s still more than $1/gallon higher than it was a year ago.
UnableChard2613 | 21 minutes ago
Well, no, it doesn't always come down in the fall. It just tends to because of what the top level comment describes. We only have to go back to 2021 to see an example of the opposite.
Saying this always applies downward pressure on the price is accurate, but saying it's the primary driver of current downward trends in price is inaccurate.
But I have to again reiterate how all-time reddit this is. The explanation is in the article which even includes discussing what this comment is talking about. But, as is typical for reddit and always has been, noone reads the article. Lol
IPDaily | 48 minutes ago
And yet you’re still here
papabearmormont01 | 6 hours ago
This is actually the most interesting explanation I have ever heard, thank you!
Limp-Plantain3824 | 2 hours ago
Top five I’ve seen on any topic here.
cwestn | 57 minutes ago
Wait, so there are different additives in gasoline in the winter vs. The summer? And gasoline from a pump in Florida has different additives than in new hampshire?
TheSpanxxx | 43 minutes ago
Yes. And yes.
Royaltyyyy | 47 minutes ago
Here is a good read.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67464
ParaBellumOutfitters | 4 hours ago
This guy hydrocarbons
army-of-juan | 9 hours ago
My guy, appreciate the well detailed response but the war hungry president just got neutered. The world knows the war will be over as soon as the new congress is sworn in.
CosmicLovepats | 5 hours ago
How do you think we're going to end the war? Israel-captured democrats aren't willing to surrender to Iran any more than the republicans are. Unlike every other imbroglio we've gotten ourselves into, this one we can't just end by going home and leaving them alone.
carterartist | 5 hours ago
Done it before. After Vietnam we were still bombing their neighbors. New Congress came in and said they won’t pay for it.
It was over
CosmicLovepats | 5 hours ago
Correct. But unlike every other imbroglio we've gotten ourselves into, this one we can't just end by going home and leaving them alone.
Supposing we do that. They still control the strait. They're still exchanging missiles with Israel, and if they want to our "allies" in the gulf. Their allies, the Houthis, still threaten all of Saudi Arabia's oil production. We have bases all over the region they can continue to strike or blockade.
It would be better. We absolutely should do it. I completely agree. But Vietnam couldn't do anything to the US once the US left. Afghanistan couldn't follow us across a continent and an ocean. Iraq might have been able to hypothetically strike at bases in the region, but they didn't have a chokehold on global trade.
xorfivesix | 4 hours ago
If Iran controls the strait so be it. There is no plan from the executive to change that.
naijaboiler | 3 hours ago
just pay the Iran tax and move on. That was the cost of going to a stupid war.
Eudaimonics | 53 minutes ago
We don’t need to pay the tax since we can just get oil from other sources and India/China already have agreements with Iran.
As long as India/China gets their oil, that reduces pressure on the entire market.
SweetHatDisc | 40 minutes ago
This is the cost of losing a war. We attempted to use our force to get Iran to comply with our will. We have discovered that the amount of force that would be required is much more than we were expecting to have to spend, and much more than we are willing to spend.
If our goal is to sit around and say "we don't like this!" while doing nothing that's capable of changing that reality (my how Trumpers have discovered they actually love sanctions in the past six months), we're doing a great job of that.
Sniter | 6 minutes ago
So be it
Atomic-Avocado | 8 hours ago
Neutered in 2 months*
He still has Mike Johnson’s senate to help him out
greenconsumer | 7 hours ago
House, but we get what you mean.
wirthmore | 7 hours ago
And it’s Gym Jordan’s House Republicans now, Mike Johnson quit in a fit of pique and “voters are wrong” whinging
CloudCobra979 | 53 minutes ago
The Democrats aren't going to take the loss here and have it turned around on them in 2028.
TheGloomyWoodpecker | 7 hours ago
That’s literally what the article says
a_library_socialist | 5 hours ago
> The world knows the war will be over as soon as the new congress is sworn in
Oh sweet summer child.
Assuming the Democrats actually opposed this war (most do not), you're ignoring it takes only one state to start a war, but two to end it.
carterartist | 5 hours ago
Most do not? Where did you get that?
Bignholy | 5 hours ago
Same place they got the tired "Both Sides" opinion that ignores everything that has happened, from their prompt.
a_library_socialist | 5 hours ago
> that ignores everything that has happened
Which is exactly what?
I get that since you guys have no actual policy to point to, you just accuse everyone else of being a bot. But having seen this same playbook used by corporate Dems in 2006, as an anti-war voter who wore out shoes pounding the streets for the Democrats to see them continue the mideast wars, you don't know what the fuck you're babbling about.
carterartist | 5 hours ago
I got out before 9-11 (technically IRR at the time), and can say that democrats supported that due to the fake intel bush gave them.
We’ve seen democrats vote against this war
https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/after-democrats-force-14th-vote-to-stop-iran-war-schumer-slams-republicans-for-caving-to-trumps-recklessness
Now cite your source or admit it’s just an uneducated idiom
a_library_socialist | 5 hours ago
I gave sources elsewhere in the thread - now fuck off and admit you're an idiot.
> and can say that democrats supported that due to the fake intel bush gave them.
Oh, nevermind, you already did admit you're an idiot here. A child could see that the Bush admin was lying (and plenty did). The removal of Blix alone made it obvious.
Much like yourself, any Democratic politician that was fooled either wanted to be, or is such an idiot they're not qualified to be a dog catcher, much less in control of the US government.
Bignholy | 4 hours ago
Hilariously, you just did the Republican Side Step. You bypassed the linked evidence to attack, and gave the traditional "look it up" response rather than sharing the link or even just linking the comment in question where you cited sources.
But you know what? Self doubt is important. Admitting when you are wrong is important. In any reasonable debate, you must verify. So I looked it up**.**
The vote to invade Iraq in 2002 was less than two weeks before the midterms. During that time, the Democrats held 50 seats to the 49 Republican seats and 1 Independent seat in the senate, and they had fewer seats than Republicans in the House.
Not sure if you were around then, but the majority of America was in Moron Mode at the time. They were angry, stupidly angry. The Republicans were already labeling everyone with the slightest objection as unamerican, and it was working.
In spite of that, more than half of the Democrats in both house and senate voted against the invasion. At a time where a significant majority of Americans were pro-invasion, and not falling in line could cost them, they none the less voted against it.
No, Democrats are not lilly pure and white. We got our own assholes, like Schumer, the paragon of corpo Democrats. But "most" did not vote for Iraq II, and "most" did not vote for Iran. If you bothered to look at the link the other person provided, it gives a handy list with links to the actual results of all 14 votes against the Iranian invasion, and all of them were party line against the war except for bloody Fetterman.
You are factually wrong with directly linked evidence on hand to prove it, and you will never admit it, because god forbid we dare to actually check sources and admit failure when caught out. At best, you're no better than what you oppose, mindless in your fury, and at worst this entire argument is in bad faith. Either way, there was little point in bothering to do all this colossal waste of time, but at least I was willing to double check my beliefs.
a_library_socialist | 2 hours ago
> You bypassed the linked evidence to attack
You mean like accusing everyone who doesn't want to believe in the nonsense seen time and time again from the Democratic leadership a bot?
> and gave the traditional "look it up" response
Right here, exactly where I said it was. You, however, were far too busy getting on your soapbox about how only you are a good person, and everyone else is apparently a Republican.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1xu1b55/comment/19siip28k1qo1/
> Not sure if you were around then
Yeah, I was in the streets getting tear gassed opposing the war. The one supported by the same ghouls you're defending.
Funny enough, I could see the intel was bullshit. Millions others could. Tell me, how are we then not more qualified to lead than the idiots you're idiotically defending here?
> The Republicans were already labeling everyone with the slightest objection as unamerican, and it was working.
And it was working because the Democrats were going along with it. Which is why even someone as milquetoast as Dean was slandered, because his support was for actually having the temerity to oppose the war.
Which, of course, is the same nonsense we see now.
> and you will never admit it, because god forbid we dare to actually check sources
See above, dumbshit.
> Either way, there was little point in bothering to do all this colossal waste of time
Oh, there was the point. To reinforce your belief that only you are actually intelligent, and anyone that doesn't agree with your belief that's all that's needed it to vote harder for Team Blue and it will all be OK.
> but at least I was willing to double check my beliefs.
Of course you weren't. You were willing to waste time reinforcing them - but not to check exactly where you were told to.
a_library_socialist | 5 hours ago
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/8/kamala-harris-says-iran-is-greatest-adversary-of-us
https://capitalandempire.com/p/top-democrats-try-to-stop-vote-that
carterartist | 5 hours ago
https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/after-democrats-force-14th-vote-to-stop-iran-war-schumer-slams-republicans-for-caving-to-trumps-recklessness
Is Kamala in office?
a_library_socialist | 5 hours ago
I'm glad you're enjoying the theater.
Tell you what, let's see what happens in January. I have a feeling THE PARLIMENTARIAN might decide the war has to go on, and Chuck will "reluctantly" agree.
leasthanzero | an hour ago
Chuck will not be in leadership
nolongerbanned99 | 7 hours ago
He is describing basic economics.
ibashdaily | an hour ago
Oh you sweet summer child. If you think the uniparty is ending this war soon, you have not been paying attention for the last three decades.
roastbeeftacohat | 42 minutes ago
Also iran was running itself ragged in the strait to get the oil price up for the mid term, and now they have to resupply.Saudis did the same in 2022, just with turning the tap down a little instead of downing tonnage.
AdvocateForBee | 8 hours ago
Great explanation! Thank you
SliFi | an hour ago
Careful, I’ve never seen a real economist refer to supply and demand as a singular law like this guy does (it’s two separate laws). Also, the comment has no peer-reviewed citations which would be very important for real economists. It’s highly likely just a Redditor spouting bullshit.
Royaltyyyy | an hour ago
Here is a nice article from AAA that covers most of what he outlined. It’s in fact not just bullshit.
https://www.acg.aaa.com/connect/blogs/4c/auto/what-to-know-about-gasoline-blends-summer-vs-winter
Edit: Adding the EIA article link here since some folks think everything is AI.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67464
SliFi | an hour ago
Wow, that article has the same phrasing and makes the same mistake. It’s now clear that the comment was AI-generated with that article as training data.
Royaltyyyy | an hour ago
Yeah that comment certainly wasn’t AI generated. If you think an AI makes the grammar mistakes seen above, you must not use AI often. Maybe we can try the EIA on for size.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67464
SliFi | 56 minutes ago
You must not use much AI.
Prompt: “give me an explanation of gas price changes using the grammar of a typical Reddit post”
ChatGPT:
Title: Why tf are gas prices going up anddown? (An explanation for anyone whodoesn't want to major in economics)
Okay, so basically, gas prices are kind of likethat one friend who can't make up their mind.
One week you're paying $3.20 a gallon,and the next week it's $3.80. Like bro,WHAT HAPPENED??
Here's the breakdown:
1. Crude oil prices 📈
Gasoline starts as crude oil, so when crudeoil gets more expensive, gas usually follows.
Wars or conflicts can mess with oil supplies.
Oil-producing countries can decideto pump less oil.
Higher global demand can push prices up.
Basically, less oil available + people stillneeding gas = 💀 your wallet.
…etc, didn’t copy the rest to save space
Key points: also no citations, says whatever is popular with possibly some correct info mixed in.
Royaltyyyy | 49 minutes ago
Ah yes, let’s explicitly tell AI to have bad grammar, and then act like that’s the norm for AI. Let’s be real here, you came across as snarky and asked for citations. When someone came along with citations that prove the original comment, IT MUST BE AI! Can you not fathom that some people do know things that aren’t common knowledge? Enjoy learning about different gas blends. Keep yelling at the clouds, you folks bring me daily entertainment.
moratnz | 3 hours ago
You make sparkling petrol?
Does it have an appellation?
Jonnny | 19 minutes ago
Does this mean the old problem of cars not starting in the cold has been solved? It is this just a mitigation?
harbison215 | 7 minutes ago
Not an expert at all but I’ve read also recently that the waning hours of day light and the the end of day light savings time also reduce demand as people tend to drive less when it’s dark.
MountainMongrel | 5 hours ago
This is the way. Though I'd wager futures would also be going down with a new congress in January.
JUST1N0 | 5 hours ago
This guy gasolines.
AgreeableGravy | 7 hours ago
Do you think we are just taking the supply shock of the last year on the chin or was it all overblown?
stravant | 6 hours ago
Why isn't it possible to mostly arbitrage this away?
UngratefulChinaman | 10 hours ago
For those too lazy to read:
The main driver is the falling price of Brent crude oil, which is now down to about $90 a barrel, and which is what refineries need to make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
That price is falling because there's a bit more oil coming out of the Middle East via pipelines, and because market traders have rejoiced at the intensifying diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran.
Atomic-Avocado | 9 hours ago
Feels like I see a post about a blown up oil tanker every other day, and I thought Houthi’s were blowing up the pipelines. How is more oil successfully coming out of the Middle East??
WizeAdz | 9 hours ago
Oil traders have been much more optimistic than I am about a resolution to the U.S.-Iran war.
I’m just a guy on the Internet and I’ve been mostly right.
Oil traders just can’t believe politicians would be as stupid and disruptive as Trump is.
I can’t wait for the Trump Era to be over so being a cynical grouch about these guys stops making me so fucking fucking prescient.
CautiousOptimism09 | 9 hours ago
I just don't see iran giving up nuclear or tge US telling israel to shove it. Buy USO if you agree
WizeAdz | 6 hours ago
We already had a treaty that prevented Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.
One of Trump’s strategic fuckups was tearing up that agreement because he had a childish disdain for the guy who made the deal.
Then, another one of Trump’s strategic fuckups was to start a war that broke the world oil economy to get Iran to not-do what Iran already agreed to not-do under Obama. And that deal would have worked if only we’d held up our end of the deal — which we didn’t under Trump!
Trump is truly a stupid fucking moron when it comes to geopolitical strategy — and our nation is in a much weaker position as a result.
digitalliquid | 5 hours ago
We haven't even begun to talk about how this little maneuver burned up all of our soft and hard power in the region.
sault18 | 2 hours ago
And depleted our missile stockpiles.
zookotz | an hour ago
I think you mean "world"
StatusSociety2196 | 7 hours ago
Netenyahu also lost his election and Eisenkot isn't perfect but is opposed to full scale war with Iran.
datumerrata | 8 hours ago
As Iran was successfully, and predicably, able to increase the price of gas before an election, the Democrats were able to sweep the election. Having accomplished this goal, and Trump saying he's not into it anymore, the assumption is that it'll peter out.
Of course, Iran will be interested to maintain control of the strait. Trump would like everyone to believe he's a big strong guy and can make choices good for his portfolio at any moment. So we'll see if it fruits
UngratefulChinaman | 9 hours ago
While tankers and pipelines are still being attacked throughout the Middle East, oil production and exports have actually recovered substantially from their lows earlier this year.
According to the EIA, approximately 10.9 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude production were shut in at the peak of the conflict in May. By October, that figure had fallen to approximately 2.54 million barrels per day, meaning roughly 77% of the disrupted production had been restored.
A major reason is that producers have adapted. Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its East-West Pipeline to move crude to the Red Sea, entirely bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE has similar infrastructure, while exporters have also expanded ship-to-ship transfers near Oman.
Reuters reported that 37 vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz during October, yet oil shipments continued recovering. Attacks have made transportation more dangerous and expensive, but they haven’t completely prevented oil from reaching international markets.
There’s also a speculative component to falling oil prices. Markets are pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic resolution, reducing the geopolitical risk premium on crude.
The important distinction is that Middle Eastern oil production and exports are recovering relative to the worst months of the conflict, not that the region has returned to normal. The infrastructure remains vulnerable, and a successful attack on a major export pipeline or terminal could still reverse these improvements relatively quickly.
Uzed2BFaster | 8 hours ago
There is increased flow through the SoH but the cost for tanker transportation is now about $30/bbl instead of $3. Tanker owners get a premium for putting their vessels at risk, the crew get a bit more, the insurance companies get more, and the cost of reverse lightering off Fujariah has increased and is an added step. So, while the flow is back up, the marginal step of getting that barrel out of the Gulf is setting the price. When those costs unwind, prices will fall but perhaps not as much as one might think, there is a new demand layer that will need to be satisfied: refilling stocks that were drained.
Life_Without_Lemon | 9 hours ago
More like every day and somehow all the damage on pipelines magically already all been repaired
Suspicious_Chart5817 | 9 hours ago
Because reporting Tanker #2352 successfully went through the straits doesn’t drive clicks
PatsFanInHTX | 9 hours ago
Strait traffic is still way down so no that's not really why.
No-Space937 | 8 hours ago
Look at Malacca not Hormuz for a more accurate picture. Tanker traffic is almost back to pre-war levels.
Oil is being shuttled through Hormuz by state owned tankers, and a few companies willing to take the risk, but they are doing this at night, running dark, AIS off, so they are not reported to normal tracking data.
This has been the case for months, and has been widely reported on. At this point I have to question the motivations of people who still wilfully do not accept what is taking place.
Flimsy_Transition688 | 8 hours ago
I think the cost of moving the oil this way is higher (risk taking ships doing the back and forth across the strait, then transferring the oil to the ships that will take the oil to market). Efficiency is down due to having to do things this way.
There are also hidden costs, such as US military escorts, as well as attrition.
No-Space937 | 7 hours ago
Yes, if this is the new status quo, gas prices will stay higher than pre-war, but we should still see further drops in prices. The major factor leading to the highest peaks of gas prices this year was the supply glut caused by the first months of the war, when neither side was getting any oil out, and the subsequent drop in refined product as many of the worlds major refining nations drasticaly cut their production, to conserve their oil reserves.
We are just now experiencing the effects of the oil supply returning as countries like China only started firing up their refinering capacity months after the oil supply had already stabalised. Gas is just a lagging indicator.
sucknduck4quack | an hour ago
This is the real answer and I’m glad at least someone here understands it. The lead time from oil being loaded on to a VLCC to refined product reaching a gas station can be months. When crude transfers from the gulf started to recover a few months ago, there was already a massive deficit of oil in transit and at refineries. Prices at the pump are only now beginning to reflect that recovery which shouldn’t come as a surprise. This has been forecasted for quite a while now.
ohhhbooyy | 8 hours ago
Oil tanker blowing up brings in more clicks than pipelines being built. Also we just finished the election. Need to get as much negative information out as possible to win
Kdave21 | 9 hours ago
There’s more oil coming out of the Middle East, now than pre-Iran. Mostly due to the very competent convoy efforts lead by the US navy
roarjah | 9 hours ago
If there’s more oil than before the war than why is my diesel still like 60% more expensive than pre war? They have control of that still which is making everything still expensive here
projectFT | 8 hours ago
For one week there was more oil. Then there’s an 8 week lag time to even get that oil to us refineries. What’s important is that the week before the election the administration risked the lives of US sailors to a greater degree so they could make the claim that oil flow was back to normal. The reason we haven’t been escorting tankers through the straight to that degree the whole time is because Iran can sink any one of our Naval escorts if they wanted to and there’s nothing we could do to stop them. It’s a huge unmitigated risk. It’s the whole reason we don’t have battle ships and air craft carriers parked out there. We can’t protect them. Period.
projectFT | 9 hours ago
*for a single week at the end of last month more oil came out of the region than prewar levels. So that’s like 38 weeks to 1.
RedowlRides | 8 hours ago
Verifiably untrue.
Richandler | 9 hours ago
And for those that don't know: Saudi Arabia has ungoldy amounts of oil and is and has been for a loooong time the margin price setter. As much as people politically might hate the regime, being in their favor is an incredible source of US power.
USSMarauder | 9 hours ago
The market thinks that the war is coming to an end because Trump has been defeated
User-no-relation | 9 hours ago
oh the price of oil at the pump is down because the price of oil is down. wow, such an insightful story
UngratefulChinaman | 9 hours ago
The article cites a few other contributors if you actually read it:
One reason: It's no longer summer, which is the peak season for gas. (Fewer people drive in colder weather, AAA points out.) With less demand, there's a touch more gas on the market.
Refineries also finish their annual maintenance by late fall. So that adds a bit more gas to go around.
And the blend of gasoline that's on the market gets cheaper.
Refineries make two types of gasoline every year: summer and winter blends. The summer blend produces less smog, because it evaporates less quickly in the heat; the winter blend helps engines start up in freezing weather, and uses a bit more butane, which helps lower its cost.
ibashdaily | an hour ago
Did summer end on November 3rd?
no-name-here | an hour ago
It sounds like we are exiting peak oil consumption season but you’re saying refiners are also just finishing annual maintenance - so refiners shut down during peak season?? Is that because gasoline isn’t their focus?
juicevibe | 9 hours ago
Because more supply is coming out of Middle East via pipelines. Read the entire comment you are replying to.
frisch85 | 3 hours ago
Is this because Trump said he'll be calling out his friends regarding price gouging? I mean it's not the same words, he didn't say friends but I'm pretty sure they are at least his monetary lobbying friends. (President Trump just CONFIRMED he’s ordered a MAJOR DOJ investigation into oil companies for price gouging Americans at the pump ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, and more.)
Ligma_baws_2x | an hour ago
They're going to buy some trump coin and the investigations will find that Biden and Ukraine are the problem.
Fickle_Ad_8227 | 9 hours ago
Someone told me that the oil companies were driving up prices so trump would lose
Round_Rice_9475 | 9 hours ago
That's nonsense. Oil companies love him
1776FreeAmerica | 9 hours ago
That's more 2022. When Oil hit and stuck to $120, over the thought and fear of Russia's 3% of global production capacity being hindered by sanctions. Now we have shortages in Russia with their refineries being taken offline, Aramco having to purchase diesel, and the rest of the Middle East issues. The SPR's are still at record lows, refining capacity is still maxed out. Yes, the domestic oil fields continued their progression of record production since 2021, but supply lines are still tight like the ramp up from Trump's covid oil production reduction deal. Ultimately when it comes to futures and trading, the feelings of those making the deals matter more than the overall reality, until physical shortages hit. There's enough logistical magic happening to keep those shortages at bay, but there's no good reason it should be that cheap considering winter is coming. At best you can thank BYD and China for demand destruction through solar and electrification.
dwightpower420 | 10 hours ago
diesel still $6.75/gal in michigan so it doesn’t really matter. I can control how much i drive because my employer pays for my commute. I can’t control how much the shipping companies have to pay to get the products i want to buy to the store
ActualSpiders | 10 hours ago
Came to point this out - whatever pressure has reduced gas, it's had *zero* impact on diesel, which means every product shipped by truck or train, not to mention all the farm equipment, is still just as expensive as it was before these drops.
Axsonjaxson16 | 9 hours ago
Great insight. Thank you.
fumar | 10 hours ago
I think the diesel price is because of how much we're shipping to Europe.
Victory18 | 7 hours ago
You’re being downvoted but you aren’t wrong. The US is exporting about 1.3 million barrels of diesel per day at the moment. Down from 1.5 million a couple of weeks ago, but still 1.3 is crazy high compared to any other year.
Pplthrowaway123 | 6 hours ago
He's being downvoted because he's going against the reddit narrative.
082426grateful | 9 hours ago
It’s what you said.
I’d only add that we may be in a recession for the consumer already. But only for maybe 75-80% of us.
There exists a larger, more wealthy, 20-25% who are thus far immune to recession at this severity. And we know GDP can remain positive, very much so, due to that 20-25% of the consumer, and a now much larger non-consumer component, in an arms race currently to build out via capex spending in the AI competition.
TLDR: gas drops severely when demand drops off. A recession is the usual cause.
MBBIBM | 9 hours ago
What’s your definition of a recession?
no-name-here | an hour ago
I think I’m on your side, but that’s a trick question as there is no real simple definition the other user could quote - there is a simplification of a rule of thumb but it’s actually decided by a group without any easily quantifiable/quotable metrics.
082426grateful | 9 hours ago
Unimportant. Households of lower and middle income levels are pulling back. Upper income households haven’t pulled back…yet. And there are more of them than ever before, which is a good thing.
But there are many more millions of households feeling recessionary conditions. They drive distances to work. They have jobs for now, but that income isn’t keeping pace.
MBBIBM | 8 hours ago
Okay, well that’s not what a recession is and you can’t even define the word
JT00000000000000 | 9 hours ago
Recession drives down the price of assets in general. If you’re wealthy, recessions are perfect times to convert your cash into goods
Possible-Nectarine80 | 9 hours ago
As long as the markets stay up, the Boomers and older Gen-X'ers at the top 10% will feel immune and continue to spend.
ddawson100 | 9 hours ago
Winter blend gas is cheaper and easing of geopolitical risk reduces futures pricing which sets wholesale pricing.
The reverse was the main drivers of the process soaring. Everyone knows the price of gas skyrocketed because oil shipments essentially ended due to the Iran war but it was already going to go up for seasonal reasons. Double whammy. Fortunately, the stable genius didn’t even try to blame the season for the gas prices.
rcumming557 | 9 hours ago
Trump allowed winter blend to stay in the pumps this summer
Uzed2BFaster | 8 hours ago
Trump waived the RFG rules set by the US EPA. He did not have the power to waive the state level specifications and the internal specifications of refiners that are primarily based on ASTM D-4814 that requires lower volatility gasoline in the summer so that cars can operate. No refiner is going to make a product that isn’t fit for purpose and saleable.
aCellForCitters | 9 hours ago
Really? I swear I remember articles about summer blend causing a 75 cent+ surge in one day in May. I saw it jump across all of Michigan when I drove across it that week.
ddawson100 | 9 hours ago
Oh, that’s right! Thank you for the correction.
InvertedEyechart11 | an hour ago
It's the change of seasons, so they change the fuel mix. More butane is mixed in during the winter months. Prices go down slightly, but I also notice gas mileage going down slightly in my car. So, it's a wash for me anyway.
Trump still has his war, though...
Minimum-Composer-905 | 43 minutes ago
There’s a few other factors in the change in fuel economy as well. Cooler air means higher density which means your car’s computer increases fuel volume to compensate. And, longer engine warm up time means more fuel used in the first several minutes of driving, as the engine wants to reach operating temperature as soon as it can for efficiency and emissions reasons.
InvertedEyechart11 | 34 minutes ago
This is true. Because of the design qualities of my car's engine it's warmed up for 3 minutes at every start-up. And I use Top-Tier Premium (the car requires premium, and additive packages in gasoline extend the life of the block), so I haven't seen under $4 for gas since the start of the war.
Accomplished_Egg7069 | 24 minutes ago
Many states, mine included, have allowed gas companies to sell winter blend gas all summer to try to cut the costs. At least here, that is not the reason.
Familiar-Conflict152 | 12 minutes ago
Wait…I thought we won the war? Doesn’t that mean it’s over? /s
ay-papy | 8 minutes ago
The US won the war and can keep the war as a trophy. Iran as the loser had to keep all that dirty Oil.
archetypaldream | 40 minutes ago
Do they also put butane in diesel? Cuz diesel is down too. ETa, yes, per another fellow.
ImaHalfwit | 10 hours ago
Colder weather means boats and RVs have been parked for the season (which is typical for this time of year). Also, the Strait of Hormuz has had more traffic flowing through it lately.
Trucks are still trucking.
MostlyH2O | 9 hours ago
Because a ton of oil is getting through the strait at great expense fully subsidized by the US taxpayer. That coupled with a full shift to winter blend and refineries running nonstop to make diesel will drive gasoline prices down.
macsogynist | 8 hours ago
I don’t think winter blend is making much difference. Butane for November it’s trading at $1.95 a gallon. That 130 percent increase from last year. Demand us down. East West pipeline is back up. Strait of Hormuz is still crippled. Iran bombed 37 ships in October. 11 ships so far this month. It’s still a shit show over there. U.S. just walked away. Because high gas prices were unpopular.
MostlyH2O | 8 hours ago
Butane vs isooctane spread is what matters, not the nominal butane price.
Also a ton of oil is coming out, as shown by the production numbers from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. We don't see the real cost of it because the US navy absorbs it all without passing it on (except to taxpayers!)
Southerncaly | an hour ago
Iran stopped droning oil transport ships to reduce attacks and release more crude oil through the strait, Iran did it to apply pressures so GOP would lose. They did the same with Carter and the the US hostages, its an old script.
FoogYllis | 51 minutes ago
Looks like they got what the White House was talking about. Regime change.
talino2321 | an hour ago
Their 2 for 2 on it working, if that's your theory.
Southerncaly | an hour ago
it is
wbruce098 | 50 minutes ago
It’s the seasonal shift, this is normal and happens every year. Reminder: It’s also still $1/gallon higher than it was in January, on average, nationwide.
MalikTheHalfBee | 18 minutes ago
How would increasing the flow of oil prior to an election apply more pressure to the gop? 🤔
Southerncaly | 14 minutes ago
They asked why prices fall after the election, this action is after the election. Pls read the title to which you are responding?
glory_holelujah | 38 minutes ago
Know your enemy. They took it to heart.
Raven_Photography | 8 hours ago
The main driver is the US putting excessive strain on the refining capacity. This is the time of year when companies dial back production for maintenance and repair. That has been sidelined and refining is continuing at 98% capacity or higher. Prices will continue to moderate until there are issues at the refinery level, then they will spike again.
South_Efficiency7019 | 9 hours ago
Because prices are being manipulated. The people pulling the strings aren’t really trying to hide it much anymore. We’ve all been robbed and now different folks will come in and change a few things. Make it look like stuff is being set back right. Then the talk will start again about how these poor non working individuals are freeloading and folks will see red again. Then it’s back to robbing us all again.
The working people in this country are asleep. Wake up America. We’re being farmed. Farmed for our time, productivity and resourcefulness. It’s our lives they are taking. The best years.
macsogynist | 8 hours ago
How do you manipulate gas prices?
Please be specific. More than a dollar one way or the other.
VarusAlmighty | 8 hours ago
OPEC controls the price of oil based on many factors, or none. Gasoline comes from oil.
no-name-here | an hour ago
So I guess you’re saying OPEC was anti Trump (presumably because of the war’s impact on their ability to sell oil, and all the collateral damage) and so therefore they worked to get Dems elected?
shabi_sensei | 8 hours ago
Individual gas stations don’t set their own prices, they get directives from the owners as to what they should set the prices to, and since profit margins are so low almost every station belongs to a chain
The pricing is often algorithmic and affects the entire chain so prices will rise and fall in huge areas all at the same time
no-name-here | an hour ago
Are store gas prices not related to wholesale prices globally?
good_looking_corpse2 | 12 minutes ago
I think you meant: tacit collusion
https://people.duke.edu/~marx/bio/papers/Tacitly_Negotiating_Collusion.pdf
Azguy303 | 6 hours ago
Specifically the price and oil dropped because Global oil futures dropped 13% because of de-escalation talks with iran, Democrats winning the White House meaning the wars days are likely numbered, as well as possible negotiations between Ukrainian and Russia. Also shortly before the election Trump ignored the sanctions against Russia and bought oil from Russia. However this was not enough to reduce gas prices by a large margin.
dagamore12 | 58 minutes ago
Smallish point of order, the Democrats did not Win the White House, as that is the next big election, this was mid-term, now the DNC did have massive but not veto-proof controlling wins in both the House and the Senate, plus a ton of state governorship.
No-Space937 | 4 hours ago
Don't bother here, this subreddit keeps popping up in my feed, and every single time I go into the comments, the rhetoric is based entirely on vibes, rather than any sound economic theory.
FFS there is a guy responding to you getting more upvotes by claiming this is the result of OPEC lmao.
Across the board the quality of conversation on this site has continued to drop, but there's still subreddits like this that stand out with the distinct feeling it's just 90% comprised of bots talking to bots.
Swear I muted this place already...
Bikeitfool | 9 hours ago
My brother's Sundays Sams Club gas run cost per gallon has dropped from 479 to 429 and most recently 379 in the past 3 weeks. Part of it is normal seasonal demand falling off a bit. Some of it is the elections too I think.
lowrads | 5 hours ago
I think we can just call it what it is, which is demand destruction.
Azul-panda | 23 minutes ago
The only answer: Trump now has checks and balances rather than the spineless republicans in the majority. His war powers will be limited, the war will ramp down, manipulation in the market by the administration will be investigated and stop, and market volatility will chill. Markets like predictability.
FartrelCluggins | 11 minutes ago
It's still a republican majority for the rest of the year you know...
Azul-panda | 10 minutes ago
You do know markets are forward looking
Tromperri | 10 hours ago
This is the kind of thing that happens when you vote blue… and useless illegal wars look like having an end in the near future.
Having gas over 4 is what happens when you elect a rapist pedo moron that promised no war and started a idiotic one only for personal economic gains.
oakfan52 | 10 hours ago
Nobody is this dumb right.....right? You realize they don't even take office for several more months.
Armenoid | 10 hours ago
Learn from this. Pricing is speculative, future predictive
RoyH0bbs | 10 hours ago
Gasoline prices are based on futures. Look it up. The market thinks that the democrats are going to do something about this ridiculous pedo-distraction war.
RogueAOV | 9 hours ago
Yeah but trump claims credit for stuff the instant he won when he had not done anything and yet years later he still blames the other guy for things that trump did.
It is perfectly reasonable to think adults might be charge again would have some effect on the markets
Baberam7654 | 10 hours ago
I’ve seen dumber, those who don’t blame trump’s economic and foreign policies for higher costs
PurpleCoat6656 | 10 hours ago
It's called 'speculation' little buddy.
Keep up.
gingersaurus82 | 10 hours ago
And "illegal wars look like having an end in the near future" doesn't mean gas companies are going to preemptively lower their prices, since the present price pressures haven't changed.
OnionQuest | 9 hours ago
>But none of those are the biggest reason why gas prices are falling, says Jorge León, head of geopolitics at the research group Rystad Energy. The main driver is the falling price of Brent crude oil, which is now down to about $90 a barrel, and which is what refineries need to make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.
>That price is falling because there's a bit more oil coming out of the Middle East via pipelines, and because market traders have rejoiced at the intensifying diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran.
The price of gas is a distilled single number that represents a complex web of interactions that moves it from dinosaur to diesel at the pump.
Expectations that there will be a ceasefire or end to hostility (and therefore more future supply) makes the current value of the commodity all along the pipeline today go down.
Before the election a trader may have assumed future supply would continue to be squeezed. Now he is looking at the new Congress and thinking they are going to force a deal. In scenario 1 it is better to hold onto a barrel of oil (reducing current supply) with the assumption you can sell it at a higher price in 6 months. Now they may just unwind the trade (dumping the oil in the market today, Lowering today's prices) because holding isn't worth the carrying cost.
Anon-Knee-Moose | 9 hours ago
Gas prices follow wti up and back down
Exact-Site9980 | 10 hours ago
They never heard of demand destruction or low winter season demand or the price difference between summer gas formulas and winter gas formulas. If everyone knew how shit worked, Reddit would be a ghost town.
Ldghead | 10 hours ago
Lol, still $5.69 in Burbank, CA
fumar | 10 hours ago
California has really high gas taxes. When gas is $3 or less around the country, they're still over $4
Straight-Ad6926 | 10 hours ago
Neither party controls the global oil market on a week to week basis. Gas spiked earlier this year because the Iran conflict choked off Middle East shipping and it’s dropping now because refineries switched to cheaper winter grade fuel, autumn demand fell, and crude prices cooled off. Presidents and Congress don't have a gas price dial on their desks. Amazing how voting blue lowered gas prices two months before anyone they voted for actually takes office.
Sad-Celebration-7542 | 9 hours ago
I think usually this is true but when you attack the 1 country with the oil shut off valve yeah it kinda is the presidents fault
Dub-MS | 10 hours ago
Biden had $4 gas as well. Braindead.
tribbans95 | 10 hours ago
Due to a war Russia started
Whaddduptho | 9 hours ago
Due to regime change that Bidet and Obummer started in 2014.
ENVIDEOUS | 10 hours ago
AND THE COST OF EGGS! /S
https://newrepublic.com/post/186233/jd-vance-caught-lying-egg-prices-video
Red hatted morons suddenly have economics degrees when their rapist in chief actually fucks up everything including oil prices and tells people to cope.
Picks6x | 10 hours ago
Due to what war?
Muted-Woodpecker-469 | 10 hours ago
Wasn’t gas under $2.50 during Covid with red orange man?
AllTearGasNoBreaks | 9 hours ago
Yep when there was no global demand due to lockdowns
Independent-Wheel886 | 9 hours ago
Democrats hate the one weird MAGA trick, crashing the economy to lower gas prices.
1776FreeAmerica | 9 hours ago
Orange man even talked Opec and Russia into cutting production by the largest amount ever in a deal. Price per barrel of oil went negative during that time.
Individual_Laugh1335 | 9 hours ago
This is just wholly inaccurate. Even adjusting for inflation the Biden term had much higher gas prices than Trumps first term. And this is a trend across the last ~30 years:
It’s obviously a political strategy when moving towards renewables to deprioritize gas and this is the result but let’s call a spade a spade.
FxkCanA | 9 hours ago
The war has not ended and the dems have very little power to force trump to stop it.
Whaddduptho | 9 hours ago
The article is about gas.
And first thing people do it bring up diesel.
Diesel is still up and therefore products are still up?
My gas is still cheaper either way.
BadHillbili | 10 hours ago
Why ask why? Just accept this post-election gift with thanksgiving and move on. It could easily spike again so, for right now, enjoy the reprieve.
Ateist | 9 hours ago
Because midterms and high gasoline prices might be related, with the prices being intentionally inflated above market levels?
Champagne-MKultra | 9 hours ago
☝️💯
Outside_Ad1669 | 9 hours ago
Haha post election n gift. Kind of like how I once took $20 from my dad's wallet. And bought him a birthday card and put $10 in it for him as a gift.
BadHillbili | 8 hours ago
Cool story bruh
EnvironmentalMix421 | 9 hours ago
lol what
Baron-Munc | an hour ago
The Democrats are probably gonna ruin the country by letting the cheap reliable workers enter the country, forget to tariff our allies, provide “entitlements” for the undeserving,and probably gonna stop blowing up children.
Sidney_Squid | 32 minutes ago
Don't tell me they'll be willing to let people live as who they are!
Baron-Munc | 29 minutes ago
People must conform, the Democrats refuse to force people to be good.