Efforts to topple Iran's leadership may backfire and strengthen the regime, former US diplomat says

237 points by Majano57 a day ago on reddit | 20 comments

resilindsey | 20 hours ago

Yeah, opening the salvo by bombing over 100 children, then double-tapping it so rescue workers also get caught in the fray would do that. I don't know if the regime will survive in its previous/current form (likely not), but don't think this will bring about meaningful change.

Hell, even terrible regime-changes (as the US loved to do in LATAM) that happened with popular support (at least initially) and were stable for some time, starts with working with opposition movements within the country to make it at first seem like they did it themselves. Just bombing them and telling the populace to protest/revolt is the stupidest strategy.

There is no actual plan or even concern for meaningful regime change. Same as in Venezuela where we left without even trying to get the opposition party (who likely won the prior election) more power. Trump and the drunk at the DoD don't actual give a shit about the regime being undemocratic or cruel, they just want fear and subservience and an opportunity to play with their cool military toys and be pretend "war heroes."

An don't get me wrong. Maduro sucks. Iran's gov't sucks. But that doesn't justify any of this. Like any schoolyard bully, they're just picking on the least-popular and least-protected kids first so they have the minimal blowback as the other countries kind of do that Curb Your Enthusiasm gif/meme.

sharp11flat13 | 15 hours ago

Excellent and accurate take. Thank you.

barnacledoor | a day ago

Anyone who believes otherwise is really living with their head in the sand. These attacks on Iran are going to only create new terrorist orgs or strengthen existing ones and lead to more plans to attack the US. It is terrible, but Trump is clearly trying to start WWIII in order to cancel the mid-term elections in November. He doesn't care who dies. He just knows that if the Democrats pull in enough seats, they are going to impeach him and may have enough to remove him from office. At that point, maybe they'll be able to act on his actions that were exposed in the Epstein files.

bobrobor | 23 hours ago

They cant impeach without senate.

Edit: effectively. Missed a word

barnacledoor | 23 hours ago

I'm not sure what you're saying. Are you disagreeing with me or just adding clarity?

bobrobor | 21 hours ago

I dont think dems will get both houses. Conviction and removal from office require a two-thirds majority vote of senators present. So impeachment alone is just theatre. Waste of taxpayers money.

Fanytastiq | 21 hours ago

Remember how this president was impeached twice in office by the House but never removed from office thanks to the senate?

bobrobor | 20 hours ago

Exactly

lgodsey | 17 hours ago

All this assumes that freeing the Iranian people from an oppressive regime is the point of this war. As a desperate attempt to distract from the Epstein files, it's not bad. Just fling enough MAGA atrocities at the world and no one can keep up with anything.

kagoolx | 21 hours ago

I don’t know how it strengthens existing terrorist orgs. The likes of Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis etc were funded and armed by Iran. So you’d expect all of these to be significantly weakened from the Iranian regime being weakened or overthrown.

Sure, if Israel and the US keep causing destruction and hitting places like Beirut, it could drive lots of people towards radicalisation, but I’m not sure it’s clear cut that the affect of that would outweigh them being weakened by a weaker Iran.

noor1717 | 20 hours ago

If Iran survives this. China and Russia are coming in hard and helping them rebuild even better. They’ll come back stronger and more advanced in 5-10 years. China and Russia are already all over this and feeding Iran intel

nonsense39 | a day ago

The Iranian regime is a danger to the world, but it's nowhere near as dangerous as the American regime. Iran's leadership are religious fanatics, but for a safer world get rid of Trump.

Couchpatator | a day ago

Talk me through how that’s done. Or are you just venting?

nonsense39 | a day ago

My comment was an observation about Trump, not about how to get rid of him. For sure most of the world agrees that he's much more dangerous than any Iranian leader. I'm Canadian so I can only offer thoughts and prayers that he's gone ASAP. It's really up to Americans how to get rid of him.

Couchpatator | 23 hours ago

Ah, wallahi we are trying.

SpinningHead | a day ago

Points at Israel.

sharp11flat13 | 15 hours ago

Points at the US supplying Israel with weapons.

SpinningHead | 5 hours ago

100%

DrDorg | 16 hours ago

Uh, that’s the idea-