This, combined with the surprising jobs report of last week, says the economy is running hot. Have to hike.
They’ll be modest with it. But the inflation is reality. Now, stock markets are oblivious to it all now, so don’t be confused, dear reader. That is a separate and distinct ecosphere, regardless of what business school or talking heads may have attempted to convince you of. Stock markets are fully gamified now.
But, the overall strength of our economy rests on jobs, first. Sounds like it’s going very well. Oh, I have doubts, but I’m just a “doomer”, unpatriotic, so don’t listen to me.
Low hire, low fire. Boomers are retiring, some people are moving up and the bottom isn't being replaced. It's not a healthy labor market. I expect this January to more messy than usual as commercial loan rates reset to much higher ones.
A strong labor market generally is as clear a signal as any that inflation is at least partially a factor of demand. It’s pretty hard to argue with the data here.
Stock market futures drifted lower following the release while Treasury yields jumped. Traders fully priced in a quarter-percentage-point increase when the Fed next meets Dec. 8-9 and put odds at a half-point at 13.6%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
Costs for goods and services rose more than expected in October, providing fresh warning signs for the Federal Reserve in its fight to lower inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
The consumer price index, a broad gauge of costs across the U.S. economy, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase.
Stripping out volatile food and energy, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% against the forecast for a 0.2% gain.
Probably need to uncap social security. Two birds with one stone. Tax increase reduces spending, doesn’t burden the lower and lower middle class who are debt dependent anyway, and mitigates any pay hikes companies are giving. And importantly funds social security for a longer time. These 25 point rate increases are doing nothing. The mortgage and auto loan market is dead anyway and piling on it won’t do anything extra. All it’ll do is drive small businesses extinct. Or maybe that’s the point.
Yes. The proposal it to (A) raise taxes, and (B) increase payments from their current baseline, which slates them to be cut by 22% in a few years.
This completely cancels out any anti-inflation effect of raising taxes, since the tax money raised and then paid out in benefits will still create demand in the economy.
Paper napkin math but since we don't have the October report from a year ago, I took the average of sept 25 and November 25 reports to make a baseline for the missing Oct report, ended up with a YoY figure of 4.0%... not good.
Both headline and core CPI beat expectations, but I’d separate the surprise from a lasting inflation trend: the article notes shelter drove over 30% of the headline rise, while the year-over-year comparison is unavailable. For markets, the immediate jump in Treasury yields and repricing of a December hike—including a small chance of 50 basis points—are clearer signals than the headline alone; the next few prints will show whether the pressure is broad and persistent. One hot month raises risk, but it does not by itself establish a new trend.
Barnyard_Rich | 2 hours ago
Just a brutal report. Shelter, food, and energy all continue to drive overall inflation, and they're the costs virtually no one can escape.
This should all but guarantee a rate hike in December, and should at least increase discussion of two rate hikes next year, rather than one.
082426grateful | an hour ago
This, combined with the surprising jobs report of last week, says the economy is running hot. Have to hike.
They’ll be modest with it. But the inflation is reality. Now, stock markets are oblivious to it all now, so don’t be confused, dear reader. That is a separate and distinct ecosphere, regardless of what business school or talking heads may have attempted to convince you of. Stock markets are fully gamified now.
But, the overall strength of our economy rests on jobs, first. Sounds like it’s going very well. Oh, I have doubts, but I’m just a “doomer”, unpatriotic, so don’t listen to me.
Maxpowr9 | an hour ago
Low hire, low fire. Boomers are retiring, some people are moving up and the bottom isn't being replaced. It's not a healthy labor market. I expect this January to more messy than usual as commercial loan rates reset to much higher ones.
082426grateful | an hour ago
Oh, I agree with you. It’s a frozen job market just like the housing market. Frozen in time, circa late 2022-early 2023.
And now it’s almost 2027.
We’re all out here just trying to survive.
african_cheetah | an hour ago
Fitting supply side inflation by raising rates means consumers get further into crunch.
All of this is one reason. Price of gas.
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 25 minutes ago
A strong labor market generally is as clear a signal as any that inflation is at least partially a factor of demand. It’s pretty hard to argue with the data here.
[OP] TorukMaktoM | an hour ago
Stock market futures drifted lower following the release while Treasury yields jumped. Traders fully priced in a quarter-percentage-point increase when the Fed next meets Dec. 8-9 and put odds at a half-point at 13.6%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch.
[OP] TorukMaktoM | 2 hours ago
Costs for goods and services rose more than expected in October, providing fresh warning signs for the Federal Reserve in its fight to lower inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
The consumer price index, a broad gauge of costs across the U.S. economy, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% for the month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% increase.
Stripping out volatile food and energy, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% against the forecast for a 0.2% gain.
Randomdumpling | an hour ago
Probably need to uncap social security. Two birds with one stone. Tax increase reduces spending, doesn’t burden the lower and lower middle class who are debt dependent anyway, and mitigates any pay hikes companies are giving. And importantly funds social security for a longer time. These 25 point rate increases are doing nothing. The mortgage and auto loan market is dead anyway and piling on it won’t do anything extra. All it’ll do is drive small businesses extinct. Or maybe that’s the point.
Raichu4u | an hour ago
I agree with uncapping social security, but how is this comment relevant at all to this CPI report?
Randomdumpling | an hour ago
Deals with inflation indirectly. CPI is high...you either raise taxes or interest rates and the latter is clearly not doing anything.
Person_756335846 | 18 minutes ago
How would raising taxes reduce inflation if the plan is to instantly shell the money back out by increasing Social Security payments?
walkingthecowww | 10 minutes ago
You wouldn’t increase the payments, the current system isn’t making enough money to fund itself in the future at the current rates.
Person_756335846 | 9 minutes ago
Yes. The proposal it to (A) raise taxes, and (B) increase payments from their current baseline, which slates them to be cut by 22% in a few years.
This completely cancels out any anti-inflation effect of raising taxes, since the tax money raised and then paid out in benefits will still create demand in the economy.
Lopsided-End-1985 | 40 minutes ago
Paper napkin math but since we don't have the October report from a year ago, I took the average of sept 25 and November 25 reports to make a baseline for the missing Oct report, ended up with a YoY figure of 4.0%... not good.
Fonsietrader | 21 minutes ago
Both headline and core CPI beat expectations, but I’d separate the surprise from a lasting inflation trend: the article notes shelter drove over 30% of the headline rise, while the year-over-year comparison is unavailable. For markets, the immediate jump in Treasury yields and repricing of a December hike—including a small chance of 50 basis points—are clearer signals than the headline alone; the next few prints will show whether the pressure is broad and persistent. One hot month raises risk, but it does not by itself establish a new trend.