Scott Bessent is ‘playing with fire’ as the Treasury’s debt buyback risks putting the dollar in a devaluation spiral like the yen, economist warns

1139 points by yrotsihfoedisgnorw 7 hours ago on reddit | 129 comments

Always_Curious_One2 | 6 hours ago

The administration believes in a weaker dollar. They think this will lead to exports growth.
Despite the fact that No country Ever has devalued its way to prosperity.

B0xGhost | 6 hours ago

After pissing off people with tariffs , what countries would want to do business with us ?

MikeOKurias | 4 hours ago

Russia, obvs. ^/s

That's who he works for after all. Israel might get a little pissed when they realize we cannot subsidize their free Healthcare and education anymore but thems the shakes.

ccbmtg | 3 minutes ago

just wanna take this opportunity to remind folks of the Internet Research Agency, aka the Russian troll farm, which was responsible for vast amounts of misinformation which directly contributed to the conman-in-chief's first election.

for somebody who constantly whines about election interference, he sure has benefitted from it.

Alone_Hunt1621 | 5 hours ago

Roman Empire speed run

Microtom_ | 5 hours ago

It increases the numerical value of the stock market. That's a win for someone.

gotnotendies | 4 hours ago

lol they don’t care about the country, they just want to be rich enough to never face any consequences for anything

ThePensiveE | 5 hours ago

Fascism consumes by it's nature. It does not grow because it's focus is subtraction and extraction.

HornedShoe | 4 hours ago

It's not about American prosperity. It's about billionaire prosperity.

TenderfootGungi | 3 hours ago

I am not saying what he is doing is a good idea, but several developing economies have purposely held the value of their currency down to grow their economy. China is probably the biggest user of this tool.

But devaluing our currency is nearly impossible if we also maintain reserve currency status.

VerdantField | 2 hours ago

Trumps personal experience is filing bankruptcy repeatedly as a business strategy to avoid paying his lenders. He’s just applying that philosophy to our entire country in a way.

Thestoryteller987 | 2 hours ago

>The administration believes in a weaker dollar. They think this will lead to exports growth.
Despite the fact that No country Ever has devalued its way to prosperity.

What are you talking about? Devaluing the Yuan is practically China's entire financial strategy. It's how the CCP maintains its edge in the export market, disenfranchises its workers, and suppresses domestic demand.

absentgl | 2 hours ago

Their strategy makes more sense when you realize who benefits from the devaluation: the ownership class. They would get to sell more American goods abroad.

It’s the average American who would suffer, as the cheap imported goods we rely on to survive disappear.

KeepTheGoodLife | 6 hours ago

I am curious, isnt this what China did?

Wonderful-Lab7375 | 5 hours ago

China’s economy relies on exports. The US, not as much. Not to mention the dollar is also the world’s main currency for trade + reserve currency.

duofuzz | 6 hours ago

Is one thing when you’re uplifting hundreds of millions of peasants out of poverty, and another when you are already the world’s center of innovation.

LTNBFU | 5 hours ago

Yeah, when they were at the bottom.

Nervous-Present-6890 | 4 hours ago

No, the Yuan has constantly strengthened vs the dollar.

devliegende | 4 hours ago

I believe the UK grew faster directly after the famous Soros incident

dragon3301 | 4 hours ago

Japan, china

Choice-Ad7599 | 4 hours ago

The administration believes in a weaker dollar because Putin wants that (for real though, Google “Project Russia”).

trogdor1234 | 6 hours ago

I for one can’t believe that paying off your mortgage with your credit card might cause problems. I guess we’ll see what happens and the repercussions.

B0xGhost | 6 hours ago

We can always send in the military haha

HeyUKidsGetOffMyLine | 4 hours ago

Nuke it like a hurricane!

m_sobol | 4 hours ago

If a B2 bomber drops a JDAM bomb on your credit card statement, the balance goes away, right?

Bravefan212 | 2 hours ago

As long as you’re holding the statement at the time

heruskael | 3 hours ago

"He didn't say that." "He didn't mean it like that." "Wow you're just over reacting." "Why would Obama do this."

UpstairsCheetah235 | 4 hours ago

Yeah cause Iran is going amazing. World is shaking in their boots.

elbow8075 | 5 hours ago

[ Removed by Reddit ]

glory_holelujah | 9 minutes ago

But think of the points you could get!

For fr. As someone who buys everything with a cc and pays it all off for the points, I would love to be able to add the mortgage.

Diamond1africa | 6 hours ago

Sigh, this is exactly what he wants. When they openly say they want to outgrow the debt, they mean doing so by hyper-expanding the money supply, purchasing back excessive debt in lieu of alternative measures. This has happened in every major civilization that has had a central bank or a reserve currency, dating back to Roman times. It's so obvious and has been so for over a decade. P.S. History does repeat itself!!

Horatio2200 | 6 hours ago

Theyve been paying us diluted silver deneriuses for years now.

wirthmore | 6 hours ago

Linguistic nerdery: "denarius" is a Latin word, so the plural is "denarii".

English words ending in "us" don't get that treatment.

Horatio2200 | 6 hours ago

Ha ha I knew what I wrote was probably wrong but thanks for the education. I genuinely am interested

anythingbuttaken | 6 hours ago

There’s others that enjoy learning this stuff too. Thanks !

jp_in_nj | 6 hours ago

Thanks for saving me from being the pedantic one on the internet today

kirime | 5 hours ago

English is consistent in being completely inconsistent, so there's no obvious rule which words ending with "-us" get treated as Latin words or as English words adopted from Latin.

Bonus, cactus, colossus, fungus, virus, and so on are all Latin words directly imported into English, yet some get a Latin plural form while the others get an English one, or even both of them at the same time when used in different contexts.

Diamond1africa | 6 hours ago

Haha exactly except without the silver 😆

uncoolcentral | 4 hours ago

Thank you. This puts a very fine point on what I was going to pedantically retort re OC.

Rolandersec | 6 hours ago

Look at how well it worked for all those South American countries in the 80s and 90s.

toolkitxx | 6 hours ago

Only partly true though. While they clearly wanted the dollar value to sink, the rates are not in their interest. There is some 1.5 trillion this year again that need roll-over if I am not mistaken and any plan they had to do that cheaply is gone by now.

JC_Hysteria | 6 hours ago

Nah, history rhymes…the only way empires maintain their control is militarily- because the relative prosperity of its average citizens can’t keep growing indefinitely.

Another nation-state will inevitably want what another has.

Diamond1africa | 6 hours ago

Solid point power projection is a huge factor, hence why there's a direct cause/effect correlation with debt crises and world wars

JC_Hysteria | 6 hours ago

We’re in a populist period right now- a lot of citizens are stirred up for one reason or another.

I doubt we’re going to elect someone who makes their message “we should turn the temperature down and stop trying to blame each other for things”, for example.

If we see inflation and people’s jobs get disrupted, I’m not sure it’ll lead to stagflation- it’ll lead to disruption.

FrankRizzo319 | 6 hours ago

And so what does this mean for common folk?

Diamond1africa | 6 hours ago

Invest in commodities and equities that benefit from inflation, or prepare to see the largest wealth gap in history. Unfortunately The common folk holding cash will experience pain; how much isn't quantifiable without insider data.

Fractales | 6 hours ago

Which commodities benefit the most from inflation?

Diamond1africa | 6 hours ago

The most common is obviously gold, but I'd recommend oil and precious metals (MP), specifically due to changes in magnet supply. I like uranium and copper, but really there are a lot of solid options; just do your due diligence.

pattydickens | 2 hours ago

I love these hot takes from people who obviously don't understand poverty. "Just invest in commodities". Motherfucker, I can't even afford gas.

OhGr8WhatNow | 6 hours ago

Not uranium. The price never changes. It's just hype

ThrasymachianJustice | 4 hours ago

> Not uranium. The price never changes. It's just hype

shouldn't over time uranium reduce to half of its initial value?

deanremix | 2 hours ago

I appreciate the response. I'm a recent home owner and I'm hoping my asset appreciates. I bought largely because I could afford it but also because I felt the dumb ass in charge would hyper inflate assets. Do you think the direction we're going in validates my thoughts? I'm also comfy holding for a long time so it's not the end of the world whenever happens. I just appreciate the insight. Know it's highly variable.

panna__cotta | 6 hours ago

Ding ding ding

j909m | 4 hours ago

It means you should buy some gold.

Spinoza42 | 6 hours ago

Well, I think this time around it will be a bit more aggressive. Bessent used to work for Soros, he knows that the real money can be made in shorting a government. But with Thiel and Musk in the wings they're not going to stop ar a black Wednesday. Go bust or go home!

Osama-bin-sexy | 6 hours ago

Break this down for me if you would. How would this scheme work?

Misfiring | 4 hours ago

Well that is why it's always better to invest most of your money into something other than cash. You lose money by simply keeping money in a savings account.

Dazzling-Rub-8550 | 23 minutes ago

Weimar German vibes. Around when Drumpf’s great grandfather left.

Alone_Hunt1621 | 5 hours ago

Speed run. Just make more!

Medical-Button-5493 | 6 hours ago

So what is the save investment here?

Diamond1africa | 6 hours ago

Commodities and equities that benefit from inflationary environments. I would even avoid TIPS with the current bond yield curve. Hedging is also a profitable play depending on your knowledge and experience with derivatives.

Zachincool | 6 hours ago

guns

Always_Curious_One2 | 6 hours ago

Only if you believe that Bitcoin has value and will hold value (I do versus printed dollars) STRF has several benefits :
1). It has the first call on distributions as the most senior preferred
2). It is cumulative so in the case that Bitcoin falls very far down in value and dividends have to be suspended (analysts see below $20k btc before this happens) - the unpaid dividends accumulate and in fact are ratcheted up for the time value. You will get your payment plus time value. Again btc would have to fall a Lot for this to even occur.
3). STRF distributions are classified as Returns of Capital for tax purposes, not regular income. So your dividends are taxed Far below the regular income tax rates of other fixed income.
So your tax equivalent dividend yield is in the teens.

For those that hate Bitcoin there’s no need to send hate messages. This post is for the rest of us.

Medical-Button-5493 | 5 hours ago

Ok but I'll just buy BTC

Isthatamole1 | 6 hours ago

This administration wants to destroy the dollar. Trump literally just got his cryptocurrency/bank a week ago? Thats why all the data centers are going up. It’s for infrastructure of cryptocurrency, surveillance, AI security etc. project 2025 literally talks about destroying the dollar and the fed. It even talks about killing horses on BLM land which is happening now.

Financial-Barnacle79 | 6 hours ago

Yeah,’with all these crypto bros hanging around this administration, no doubt they’d love to have their currency replace the $.

Horatio2200 | 6 hours ago

Wondering if there's a plan to pump bitcoin to distract the masses from buying gold, silver and oil.

Financial-Barnacle79 | 6 hours ago

Put on your conspiracy hat now because anything seems plausible be these days.

The_Frozen_Inferno | 2 hours ago

Might work on the masses but I have no interest in a 20-year old made up currency that could end up crumbling when quantum computing breaks it. Give me the physical metals that humanity has cherished and valued for thousands of years

Isthatamole1 | 6 hours ago

💯

Dphre | 6 hours ago

The horses too? Damn.

What’s crazier is that all of this will immediately become the next presidents fault, not this administration.

Isthatamole1 | 6 hours ago

Um please read project 2025 and Curtis Yarvin. They are trying to make sure we don’t have another democratic election—ever. Despite his age, Trump is already talking about his “next term”.

And yeah the horse stuff is so freaking sad. It’s all over my social media feeds. The videos had me crying.

Richandler | 3 hours ago

Read the history of it all. They've been attempting this stuff for a long time. https://washingtonspectator.org/paranoia-on-parade/

Financial-Barnacle79 | 6 hours ago

Yup. I can’t imagine anyone wanting to be the person to pick up the reins. IF we are somehow to right this ship through reduced spending and raising taxes, that person will only be in office for 1 term.

OkIron6206 | 6 hours ago

This 💯

sweatboxy | 6 hours ago

After Chase tagged Trump accounts for money laundering, his own bank was the best way to get around the law. DOJ is never going to prosecute, much less ever investigate

Spinoza42 | 6 hours ago

Dollar must go and so must democracy or nation states. They're blowing it all up!

Richandler | 3 hours ago

Good time to read about the roots of this movement if people are interested: https://washingtonspectator.org/paranoia-on-parade/ Audio form at the bottom. tl;dr It's a long-standing class warfare from crazy rich people against eveyone else.

WellHung67 | 5 hours ago

Why are we letting these clowns destroy all of our futures? Is this recoverable? Should I buy a lot of stuff now because inflation is about to fuck is all in the ass with no lube? How can a country destroy itself this thoroughly, like shouldn’t there be uprisings? This isn’t a joke of a country fundamentally. Why would Republicans and even rich people let this happen? Can no one stand up to Trump?

9783883890272 | 4 hours ago

> like shouldn’t there be uprisings?

LMAO. All you goofballs do is whine online about why aren't there uprisings while looking hopefully at each other and can't see the obvious. Fucking hilarious.

WellHung67 | 3 hours ago

What’s the obvious?

dust4ngel | 2 hours ago

the real move is to talk shit on reddit

Apocalypsis_velox | 4 hours ago

Unlubed ass-fuckings will continue until morale improves

Original-Rush139 | 3 hours ago

>  Why are we letting these clowns destroy all of our futures?

Because we were Uncommitted to our democracy in the 2024 election. Do you remember all of the anti genocide protestors occupying college campuses? They destroyed Kamala’s chance and really helped Trump. Now, they’re getting deported and Israel hasn’t stopped the genocide.

WellHung67 | 3 hours ago

I would say there’s lots of blame to go around for the 2024 election

ObservationalHumor | 28 minutes ago

95%+ of the population has no idea what's going on here or its implications. That's part of the problem with knowledge specialization in the modern world. There's a ton going on with the economy, data privacy, defacto circumvention of the 4th amendment and a ton of other things that the public just isn't aware of or well enough educated to understand it.

That's why in theory we have elected representatives to watch this stuff and weigh in when things get out of pocket but they aren't going to do anything about it either. Most of the GOP is too scared of getting bullied by the president online to say or do anything that might upset him and hope that they can just implement some Christian nationalist utopia before this all falls apart. Most of the Democrats are still deluded into thinking that this will all somehow be a positive thing because they'll do better in the polls and people will finally given them the 20+ years need to implement their game plan and completely forgetting what happened the last time Trump lost an election.

Lots of congress can see the fuse burning and could fix the problem tomorrow if they had consensus and courage to do so, they just don't. Most disaster don't result from a single point of failure but a bunch of missed opportunities and a culture that discourages safety and preemptive action. Unfortunately our government is no different.

King-Meister | 6 hours ago

I know that releasing 4Bn into the economy isn’t a big deal, but wouldn’t this technically lead to more inflation in the short term (assuming they aren’t issuing new debt to fund the buy back)?

Horatio2200 | 6 hours ago

I guess more importantly it will lead to the expectation that this will happen again and again. Everytime the thirty year yield spikes, they have set the precedent. The global money supply will continue expanding and expanding.

brainrotbro | 6 hours ago

More so I think he’s signaling that the treasury is ready and willing to prop up treasuries in order to prevent major offloading.

Stock-Ad-7486 | 6 hours ago

Actuall it’s for the entire quarter with 4 operations per quarter so the amount is around 14 billion. Year to date they already bought a record 138 billion as of today.💰

King-Meister | 5 hours ago

I am assuming a lot of it was done against issuance of new debt?

Stock-Ad-7486 | 4 hours ago

I believe they’re buying one end to decrease the other. Short vs long term bonds basically putting out fires. We have operating bond issuance in 4 sales per quarter. .25 cents of every dollar we borrow goes to interest payments so our real interest rate is 25% plus the amount of the bond.

King-Meister | 4 hours ago

If that's the case then is it not a feedback loop?

Stock-Ad-7486 | 3 hours ago

Well yes

ResolveLeather | 5 hours ago

No. It will increase bond rates which increases the cost of money. That usually slows inflation.

King-Meister | 5 hours ago

Wait, isn't the treasury buyback supposed to reduce bond yields so that the cost of borrowing for the government doesn't increase a lot?

ResolveLeather | 5 hours ago

My bad, you are right. I was thinking of the consequences of not doing it.

King-Meister | 4 hours ago

No worries.

Hautamaki | 5 hours ago

Doesn't this assume that Bessent wants to maintain the value of the dollar? What if the real play all along is drastically devaluing the dollar? That makes US exports much more attractive and devalues the massive US debt burden.

Say the USD loses 25-40% of its value relative to the Euro, CDN, Yuan, Yen, etc. That might be really bad for the American economy as a whole, particularly in terms of inflation, but on the other hand it would accomplish three of their known objectives of making US exports drastically more competitive on the global stage, putting an unofficial 'tariff' on all imports, and reducing the burden of US debt by devaluing it relative to all other currencies.

And the US has long accused other countries of purposefully devaluing their own currencies in order to gain such advantages over the US; from their perspective, this is just turnabout being fair play. I too am curious to see how this works out, but I hold out the possibility that maybe Bessent does have a plan, it's just not what they say publicly, it's to devalue the USD on purpose.

Nervous-Present-6890 | 4 hours ago

not gonna happen. other countries are all pegged or soft pegged to the dollar

Hautamaki | 4 hours ago

meaning they're all stuck in the car as Bessent drives it off a cliff?

sjbglobal | an hour ago

Not really

argentpurple | 3 hours ago

The goal of this government is to straight up just impoverish the average American. There is literally no other logical or rational explanation for their actions at this point.

PhilMyu | 6 hours ago

When do we come to terms with the fact that this monetary system isn‘t sustainable.

(This said, it’s clearly the unnecessary Iran war that is putting oil to the fire and Trump and his cronies are too stupid and proud to admit it.)

NicoBeingAModelCitiz | 5 hours ago

when the majority of the population can't buy food with the dollar at its face value.

wastingtoomuchthyme | 4 hours ago

Trump is doing exactly what he's been groomed recruited to do by the Russian government and China since the 80's. At first it was a massive money laundering operation and then that became an opportunity to bribe politicians and judges while the Russian government offered the muscle for the credible threats for anyone who doesn't take the bribe.

The credible threat component is why nobody has broken ranks and exposed the RICO operation

Defiant_Wolf5934 | 2 hours ago

When the donor class starts to feel the pain (i.e., the actual big businesses that run Congress), expect impeachment proceedings to take place and Senators actually warn Trump that he is at risk of being convicted in the Senate. Only then will Trump back down and pull out of Iran, etc.

pig_newton1 | 3 hours ago

Thé dollar devaluation is the goal. It’s the only lever they can use to get out of this situation. It’s not a risk so much as a final outcome that needs guidance in getting there carefully. That’s bessents challenge.

The only other levers are worse like raising taxes, austerity or defaulting. I don’t think any other person in his situation would be doing things much differently

vertigo3pc | 29 minutes ago

>The only other levers are worse like raising taxes...

>I don’t think any other person in his situation would be doing things much differently

So you think the reasonable thing to do, which is what Bessent is doing, which is NOT raising taxes? You think that's what markets want to see?

Richandler | 3 hours ago

Any dollar weakness is coming from Trump pissing literally everybody off and putting tariffs on everyone (remember that money would normally go to those bond buyers since they don't buy much from the US because they can't afford to). Nothing to do with these buybacks.

Memitim | 42 minutes ago

Well, duh, He's a Republican. While adept at failure across all disciplines, screwing up the economy is a particular specialty of theirs. We've seen it for decades at this point.

Chill--Cosby | 38 minutes ago

Guys what happens to us? What happens to the lives we are living now if this happens?

I want to go to grad school. Is this going to ruin everything for us?