Brent Oil is going to finish the day above 100. I’m curious how much higher it can go.
Market is in turmoil and I’m curious how long people will keep believing Trumps assurances things are fine. It feels like his old tricks to calm the markets just aren’t working anymore. It’s bizarro world in that capacity as there really aren’t any weapons at ready to combat a downturn in the market.
When the market tanks what desperate act will he do? Completely disengage from Iran begging for mercy in some way he might save face? Completely pull back on tariffs? I’m curious to see the big changes to come.
I can start to hear the circus music it’s so close
The problem is that anytime Trump is in a corner, and it's always his fault, he reacts with a burn everything down response. His reaction will cause more problems.
He’s going to invade on the ground to secure the Iranian side of the straits. It will be a fucking disaster and will make everything even worse. He will somehow blame Biden for it.
Republicans only behave this way because their voters allow it. If their voters stopped for two seconds and said “Trump has been president for a year now, this is on him” and stopped swallowing the propaganda, all this would change overnight.
But these rather be lied to than admit any culpability in all of this.
I have seen MAGA claim that this should all be irrelevant because the Strategic Oil Reserve is supposed to have enough to last the nation for years. But Biden drained it dry.
I'm probably a bit cynical, but it's getting to the point where I kind of hope that's all he'll do. Because that toddler loves quick "fixes", and he was fully willing to use certain type of bombs on hurricanes..
Well the other take most of us heard in the last year is that he always chickens out, hence the term TACO. That's what I go with and I think that's what some of the market are assuming. But who knows, I'm just staying short in SPY in any event.
Yup. Iran has been attacked multiple times now on their own territory. In the attacks we made a school full of innocent kids and the supreme leader Martyrs. In their minds, this will not stop until they end the threat, because they view it as an existential crisis.
I would expect them to prepare stealthy longer term retaliation(s) until repeatedly successful. So even when the immediately hot action subsides, it simply isn't over. It is forever escalated.
We kicked the hornets nest and them hornets are simply not going to go back inside.
What did anyone with even a quarter of a brain expect? This kills more Americans, plain and simple.
Iran would be a moron to ever agree to any long term deal with the US. Everyone would know it would be all parties stalling until the next time Israel decides to bomb Iran again in a few months
Considering their current leader's father was just killed and he's possibly severely injured (or in a coma and they're lying on his behalf) and he already wanted to fight harder than his dad before this, I'd say they're not going to back down anytime soon.
His overall support barely dipped with the Epstein news that shit doesn't affect MAGA because they are deplorable. A worldwide recession/depression would.
Israel got their ultimate wish, for the US, some big ass nation a fucking ocean away, to decide to go after Israel's biggest enemy in the Middle East. OK, Bibi has worked the US Govt at all levels, and probably has a copy of the full video of the epstein files, he worked for them, after all...so our Dotard said "great idea" and told TV presenter Keg-seth to get a woody.
Agreed it's too late for him to TACO his way out of it. There will be lasting macroeconomic effects resulting from it. I think the resulting stagflation is going to crack the long term bond market with implications for equities that entails.
I always hated the term TACO. I feel like we want trump to chicken out versus doubling down. His response to that term could be so consequential to the globe.
Yep, usually he just sues some people or declares bankruptcy, cut ties and lies to cover his tracks. But you can’t just move on with a war and everyone can see the petrol prices everyday so there’s no distractions.
I think when the prices at the pump go up they'll turn. His base has a tendency to not care about things that don't impact them directly. Few things are more direct than hurting your wallet.
They're also more likely to ride fuel inefficient cars.
I think it's going to be a perfect storm that maybe even gerrymandering won't fix for them.
But who knows? He's been the Teflon Don for so long it's anybody's guess if it sticks.
He can stop the war any time he wants, so if he gets enough pressure he'll just wrap things up, say, 'Mission Accomplished' and Iran will likely re-open the straight to some traffic, if not all.
The mission will be accomplished btw, because this whole thing reeks of distraction from the Epstein files, as well as a gift for US fossil fuel producers who are reaping huge profits as long as the war goes on.
>Completely disengage from Iran begging for mercy in some way he might save face?
Trump does not care about saving face, because his actions have no impact on the support of his base. They can't even locate Iran on a map and they consistently vote and support for tax and economic plans that disproportionately hurt them. Trump's ego is separate from reality and it can be assuaged by himself whenever he wants. TACO has shown he has no care for following through on anything and it doesn't seem to bother him that everyone knows this. He can self-soothe by accepting a few hundred million dollars in bribes and go along his way.
Reparations? They got bombed into oblivion after being kowtowed and pushed around for years, but now they have nothing to lose and hold the fate of the world’s economy in their hands for the next few years. Oh, and their leader, if still alive, lost his whole family.
I wouldn’t expect too much anytime soon from them.
The Iranian government is, honestly, getting what it deserves for causing problems for so long and destabilizing the middle east a bit. If they wanted to be seen as "innocents," they shouldn't have spent so much money funding Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Gulf States and Riyadh have been positioning themselves to oppose Iran's ambitions for quite some time now. No one really expected the current situation to happen like this, but a confrontation with Iran was, frankly, inevitable. This is not a regime that deserves pity nor respect. But better planning with more precise actions should definitely have taken place, and all necessary allies and resources should have been positioned to ensure this was quick and decisive.
International law has rules, Donny! This isn’t ’Nam!
Seriously though, regardless of the shitbags they are, this is not a way to win a war. The U.S. and Israel are making it very easy for Iran. They also don’t care, because the war is a distraction for their leaders’ scandals, i.e., the Epstein files and Netanyahu’s corruption case. We’re just collateral damage.
Why would Iran reopen the Strait? Best case scenario is that they get bombed to shit again six months from now after the US introduces a level of logistics and planning into the operation.
This is the ONE care they have and they’re not going to just fold that card in exchange for a short term draw back of US forces.
“Likely re-open the strait” literally no one is saying this will happen outside Trump and his cronies. Maybe in a month or two when after a 5 percent drop in the markets week over week. Oil obviously has an upper limit that is approaching but that pain will be felt long after. Iran has 0 reason to stop the bleeding the U.S. is feeling. The amount of money being spent and economic damage occurring is crazy and the Iranians seem to not care about the constant bombing. Trump absolutely will try to back out, but Iran won’t let him. He’ll have to do something drastic to fix this.
“The mission will be accomplished btw because… Epstein files” agreed but this was only temporary an what’s happened is worse
Unless the US is also pulling out of all of its bases in the region and ending support for Israel, Iran wont stop. This is an existential battle at this point for them. Negotiations are dead because the US has just used them to murder Iranians multiple times now. Its endgame shit now.
He already tried the Mission Accomplished tract and Iran told us to fuck all the way off and that the war ends when they say it does, we are absolutely backed into a geopolitical corner of nothing but self-inflicted stupid choices.
Iran won't. They were just bombed during negotiations. Interceptors are depleting for the Gulf states. They won't just accept a peace that Israel will violate in 6 months time.
> He can stop the war any time he wants, so if he gets enough pressure he'll just wrap things up, say, 'Mission Accomplished' and Iran will likely re-open the straight to some traffic, if not all.
Why would they? The regime does not appear to be in danger of collapsing and they don't give a shit about their citizens suffering, while they have every incentive to inflict as much pain as possible on Trump to discourage him (or any other American leader) from ever attacking them again. They've rejected ceasefire overtures and I expect them to continue wanting to hurt Trump at least until the midterm elections.
What a great article. I wonder what percentage of average Joes are aware of the Strait? I have no idea since I'm kinda dialed in politically. I literally don't know how I would go about defending the Trump admin's decisions in this war to the populace. There appears to be no goal, no strategy, they just had the opportunity to kill a bunch of leaders. They didn't stop there because.... I don't see any reason besides Trump's and Hegseth's egos?
"Iran is going to win the war by surviving" I don't think Trump has the gonads to make this not true. He'd need regime change but no one wants boots on the ground.
So getting back to the Average Joe and the Strait. If a significant number of Americans don't see this painfully obvious economic pain coming, they're not going to make enough noise about ending the war. I hope I'm wrong, but it seems like there's a good chance the US sleepwalks into an economic crisis with this war with no goals or ends.
Trump, after maybe a couple more days of strikes, declares a “victory” (it’ll be the greatest, most beautiful, best ever victory ever declared)…but
Nothing will have changed - no regime change, IRGC still largely intact, and a more united population against the west then there was before (in part thanks to that blunder of a strike on the girls school)
Leaving the future of this crisis in the hands of Iran. What does Iran do? Lick their wounds and rebuild and hope to fight again another day? Or do they decide the war isn’t over and continue their strikes or Hormuz closure? There by forcing the Americans/Israelis to continue the strikes?
This whole thing was a colossal mistake with no defined goals, no clear path to victory, and a potential trap of continuing war.
"Well they've weakened so much... If you look at the leaders before we bombed.... And there's no one left. No one left. Complete destruction. They've completely surrendered. Like no one has ever seen."
Ya pretty much. He can spin it however he likes. Unless the Iranian government falls and a new democratic government is put in place, this war only accomplishes temporary disarment. We will be here again in another twenty years. T
I have no idea what is going on in Iran, but I have read a lot of history. It would not be too surprising if Trump ends up making the current rulers of Iran more firmly in control. When attacked by an external force, the people often rally around whoever is the current leader.
He finally screwed himself this time. He can’t veto, or use his executive powers, or rely on NATO, or strong arm Congress or the Supreme Court to fix this mess. Plus he hired the worst possible Secretary of War(mongering) on the planet to execute a war “plan” devised by Ghouls with no knowledge of anything but stealing money from the poor and giving to themselves or other people. This country has become a pariah of the world in just over a year of this administration…. And we have 3 more years of this orange menace to completely destroy the US and world economies. Buy stock in gold and sell everything else.
Why is it surprising that an administration that doesn’t publicly acknowledge and demonstrate understanding of fairly simple topic as tariffs which have been studied, documented and observed for over a 100 years, can’t fully anticipate the economic impacts of a war that they didn’t even wanted to start but forced into joining. Hopefully, we will learn in the coming years how little preparation and analysis went into estimating economic and political impacts.
We are paying the price for the ill-advised actions of a man-child figure sitting in the white house.
Does Trump possess the strategic capacity to think through the consequences of his ill-advised actions.
It is difficult to fathom that an attack was launched against a country that controls the space through which 25% of the world's energy passes without any clear plan.
He disrupted the world economy. Wait for the oil prices to reach $200 per barrel.
Stlr_Mn | a day ago
Brent Oil is going to finish the day above 100. I’m curious how much higher it can go.
Market is in turmoil and I’m curious how long people will keep believing Trumps assurances things are fine. It feels like his old tricks to calm the markets just aren’t working anymore. It’s bizarro world in that capacity as there really aren’t any weapons at ready to combat a downturn in the market.
When the market tanks what desperate act will he do? Completely disengage from Iran begging for mercy in some way he might save face? Completely pull back on tariffs? I’m curious to see the big changes to come.
I can start to hear the circus music it’s so close
joebalooka84 | a day ago
The problem is that anytime Trump is in a corner, and it's always his fault, he reacts with a burn everything down response. His reaction will cause more problems.
Murder_Bird_ | 22 hours ago
He’s going to invade on the ground to secure the Iranian side of the straits. It will be a fucking disaster and will make everything even worse. He will somehow blame Biden for it.
Automatic-Duck1680 | 22 hours ago
Ted Cruz has already started with that one.
Mr_DeskPop | 20 hours ago
Ofc Cancun Cruz would smfh
OpenTheLanes | 5 hours ago
Canadian Cancun Cruz
RoninChaos | 18 hours ago
Republicans only behave this way because their voters allow it. If their voters stopped for two seconds and said “Trump has been president for a year now, this is on him” and stopped swallowing the propaganda, all this would change overnight.
But these rather be lied to than admit any culpability in all of this.
CliftonForce | 17 hours ago
I have seen MAGA claim that this should all be irrelevant because the Strategic Oil Reserve is supposed to have enough to last the nation for years. But Biden drained it dry.
Reality: No, it dosen't. And no, Biden didn't.
SoulShatter | 9 hours ago
Conveniently dodging the question on why Trump himself didn't replenish the oil reserve. The moron even promised to do so before getting elected
padizzledonk | 18 hours ago
>He’s going to invade on the ground to secure the Iranian side of the straits. It will be a fucking disaster and will make everything even worse
I wish him luck with that one lol
stillphat | 21 hours ago
he's blaming Biden for the supposed open borders. Any attack on US soil will thus become Bidens fault and trump will escape accountability.
SoulShatter | 9 hours ago
I'm probably a bit cynical, but it's getting to the point where I kind of hope that's all he'll do. Because that toddler loves quick "fixes", and he was fully willing to use certain type of bombs on hurricanes..
KnowerOfUnknowable | 5 hours ago
Taking control of the Iranian side of the straits is meaningless. They can launch drones from anywhere in the country to hit ships in the straits.
charlesleestewart | 23 hours ago
Well the other take most of us heard in the last year is that he always chickens out, hence the term TACO. That's what I go with and I think that's what some of the market are assuming. But who knows, I'm just staying short in SPY in any event.
Upper_Author2105 | 23 hours ago
But he can’t just TACO out of this one with a tweet. Iran has every incentive to keep the pressure up until real cracks in Trump’s support emerge.
dogs_gt_cats | 23 hours ago
Yup. Iran has been attacked multiple times now on their own territory. In the attacks we made a school full of innocent kids and the supreme leader Martyrs. In their minds, this will not stop until they end the threat, because they view it as an existential crisis.
Trump can't walk this back.
CrackerJackKittyCat | 21 hours ago
I would expect them to prepare stealthy longer term retaliation(s) until repeatedly successful. So even when the immediately hot action subsides, it simply isn't over. It is forever escalated.
We kicked the hornets nest and them hornets are simply not going to go back inside.
What did anyone with even a quarter of a brain expect? This kills more Americans, plain and simple.
ForsakenRelief2662 | 21 hours ago
Iran would be a moron to ever agree to any long term deal with the US. Everyone would know it would be all parties stalling until the next time Israel decides to bomb Iran again in a few months
HiImDan | 21 hours ago
Considering their current leader's father was just killed and he's possibly severely injured (or in a coma and they're lying on his behalf) and he already wanted to fight harder than his dad before this, I'd say they're not going to back down anytime soon.
lurksAtDogs | 22 hours ago
He’d have to TACO all the way out of the Middle East, abandoning US bases and Israel, which he won’t do or they’ll release the Epstein videos.
ReserveFormal3910 | 22 hours ago
His overall support barely dipped with the Epstein news that shit doesn't affect MAGA because they are deplorable. A worldwide recession/depression would.
StandupJetskier | 20 hours ago
Israel got their ultimate wish, for the US, some big ass nation a fucking ocean away, to decide to go after Israel's biggest enemy in the Middle East. OK, Bibi has worked the US Govt at all levels, and probably has a copy of the full video of the epstein files, he worked for them, after all...so our Dotard said "great idea" and told TV presenter Keg-seth to get a woody.
charlesleestewart | 22 hours ago
Agreed it's too late for him to TACO his way out of it. There will be lasting macroeconomic effects resulting from it. I think the resulting stagflation is going to crack the long term bond market with implications for equities that entails.
kermelie | 10 hours ago
I always hated the term TACO. I feel like we want trump to chicken out versus doubling down. His response to that term could be so consequential to the globe.
random_encounters42 | 21 hours ago
Yep, usually he just sues some people or declares bankruptcy, cut ties and lies to cover his tracks. But you can’t just move on with a war and everyone can see the petrol prices everyday so there’s no distractions.
totpot | 21 hours ago
Bloomberg is forecasting 164 if it’s closed for 3 months
LyptusConnoisseur | 15 hours ago
Experts are saying $150 is when we will see serious demand destruction starting from the Poor nations.
OK_x86 | an hour ago
I think when the prices at the pump go up they'll turn. His base has a tendency to not care about things that don't impact them directly. Few things are more direct than hurting your wallet.
They're also more likely to ride fuel inefficient cars.
I think it's going to be a perfect storm that maybe even gerrymandering won't fix for them.
But who knows? He's been the Teflon Don for so long it's anybody's guess if it sticks.
Traum77 | a day ago
He can stop the war any time he wants, so if he gets enough pressure he'll just wrap things up, say, 'Mission Accomplished' and Iran will likely re-open the straight to some traffic, if not all.
The mission will be accomplished btw, because this whole thing reeks of distraction from the Epstein files, as well as a gift for US fossil fuel producers who are reaping huge profits as long as the war goes on.
>Completely disengage from Iran begging for mercy in some way he might save face?
Trump does not care about saving face, because his actions have no impact on the support of his base. They can't even locate Iran on a map and they consistently vote and support for tax and economic plans that disproportionately hurt them. Trump's ego is separate from reality and it can be assuaged by himself whenever he wants. TACO has shown he has no care for following through on anything and it doesn't seem to bother him that everyone knows this. He can self-soothe by accepting a few hundred million dollars in bribes and go along his way.
gingerzombie2 | 23 hours ago
>and Iran will likely re-open the straight to some traffic, if not all.
Will they? They seem pretty pissed. I guess I don't know what they would accomplish by keeping it closed. Reparations?
BasvanS | 22 hours ago
Reparations? They got bombed into oblivion after being kowtowed and pushed around for years, but now they have nothing to lose and hold the fate of the world’s economy in their hands for the next few years. Oh, and their leader, if still alive, lost his whole family.
I wouldn’t expect too much anytime soon from them.
anewbys83 | 21 hours ago
The Iranian government is, honestly, getting what it deserves for causing problems for so long and destabilizing the middle east a bit. If they wanted to be seen as "innocents," they shouldn't have spent so much money funding Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Gulf States and Riyadh have been positioning themselves to oppose Iran's ambitions for quite some time now. No one really expected the current situation to happen like this, but a confrontation with Iran was, frankly, inevitable. This is not a regime that deserves pity nor respect. But better planning with more precise actions should definitely have taken place, and all necessary allies and resources should have been positioned to ensure this was quick and decisive.
BasvanS | 20 hours ago
International law has rules, Donny! This isn’t ’Nam!
Seriously though, regardless of the shitbags they are, this is not a way to win a war. The U.S. and Israel are making it very easy for Iran. They also don’t care, because the war is a distraction for their leaders’ scandals, i.e., the Epstein files and Netanyahu’s corruption case. We’re just collateral damage.
unfunnysexface | 20 hours ago
What would have made it quick and decisive?
anewbys83 | 21 hours ago
I mean...they like money from their oil. They'll reopen. But others might have to pay them a "transportation tax" now.
Hi_Im_Dadbot | 23 hours ago
Why would Iran reopen the Strait? Best case scenario is that they get bombed to shit again six months from now after the US introduces a level of logistics and planning into the operation.
This is the ONE care they have and they’re not going to just fold that card in exchange for a short term draw back of US forces.
Stlr_Mn | 23 hours ago
“Likely re-open the strait” literally no one is saying this will happen outside Trump and his cronies. Maybe in a month or two when after a 5 percent drop in the markets week over week. Oil obviously has an upper limit that is approaching but that pain will be felt long after. Iran has 0 reason to stop the bleeding the U.S. is feeling. The amount of money being spent and economic damage occurring is crazy and the Iranians seem to not care about the constant bombing. Trump absolutely will try to back out, but Iran won’t let him. He’ll have to do something drastic to fix this.
“The mission will be accomplished btw because… Epstein files” agreed but this was only temporary an what’s happened is worse
sheltonchoked | 21 hours ago
If they keep it closed for 2 months, the Great Depression will look like the Panic of 1873.
EatMyShortzZzZzZ | 23 hours ago
Unless the US is also pulling out of all of its bases in the region and ending support for Israel, Iran wont stop. This is an existential battle at this point for them. Negotiations are dead because the US has just used them to murder Iranians multiple times now. Its endgame shit now.
wambulancer | 23 hours ago
He already tried the Mission Accomplished tract and Iran told us to fuck all the way off and that the war ends when they say it does, we are absolutely backed into a geopolitical corner of nothing but self-inflicted stupid choices.
Overton_Glazier | 22 hours ago
Iran won't. They were just bombed during negotiations. Interceptors are depleting for the Gulf states. They won't just accept a peace that Israel will violate in 6 months time.
RickCrenshaw | 21 hours ago
Iran has literally no reason to re-open the straight
Gluteous_Maximus | 20 hours ago
It has its own allies and customers, but yeah in general, its their key escalation leverage.
Xeynon | 22 hours ago
> He can stop the war any time he wants, so if he gets enough pressure he'll just wrap things up, say, 'Mission Accomplished' and Iran will likely re-open the straight to some traffic, if not all.
Why would they? The regime does not appear to be in danger of collapsing and they don't give a shit about their citizens suffering, while they have every incentive to inflict as much pain as possible on Trump to discourage him (or any other American leader) from ever attacking them again. They've rejected ceasefire overtures and I expect them to continue wanting to hurt Trump at least until the midterm elections.
anewbys83 | 21 hours ago
Sounds like we need to keep going, then, and finish the job.
Xeynon | 21 hours ago
That will require boots on the ground, trillions of dollars, and thousands of American lives.
TheBestNarcissist | 19 hours ago
What a great article. I wonder what percentage of average Joes are aware of the Strait? I have no idea since I'm kinda dialed in politically. I literally don't know how I would go about defending the Trump admin's decisions in this war to the populace. There appears to be no goal, no strategy, they just had the opportunity to kill a bunch of leaders. They didn't stop there because.... I don't see any reason besides Trump's and Hegseth's egos?
"Iran is going to win the war by surviving" I don't think Trump has the gonads to make this not true. He'd need regime change but no one wants boots on the ground.
So getting back to the Average Joe and the Strait. If a significant number of Americans don't see this painfully obvious economic pain coming, they're not going to make enough noise about ending the war. I hope I'm wrong, but it seems like there's a good chance the US sleepwalks into an economic crisis with this war with no goals or ends.
squailtaint | 17 hours ago
I believe this is how it plays out:
This whole thing was a colossal mistake with no defined goals, no clear path to victory, and a potential trap of continuing war.
KidKilobyte | 16 hours ago
Not saying you’re wrong, but how does Trump get around saying only total surrender would be accepted?
TheBestNarcissist | 16 hours ago
"Well they've weakened so much... If you look at the leaders before we bombed.... And there's no one left. No one left. Complete destruction. They've completely surrendered. Like no one has ever seen."
squailtaint | 16 hours ago
Ya pretty much. He can spin it however he likes. Unless the Iranian government falls and a new democratic government is put in place, this war only accomplishes temporary disarment. We will be here again in another twenty years. T
strictlymissionary | 9 hours ago
I read this in his voice
CarbsLVR | 15 hours ago
He'll claimed he talked on the phone with somebody and made a deal.
bejammin075 | 5 hours ago
I have no idea what is going on in Iran, but I have read a lot of history. It would not be too surprising if Trump ends up making the current rulers of Iran more firmly in control. When attacked by an external force, the people often rally around whoever is the current leader.
love-SRV | 19 hours ago
He finally screwed himself this time. He can’t veto, or use his executive powers, or rely on NATO, or strong arm Congress or the Supreme Court to fix this mess. Plus he hired the worst possible Secretary of War(mongering) on the planet to execute a war “plan” devised by Ghouls with no knowledge of anything but stealing money from the poor and giving to themselves or other people. This country has become a pariah of the world in just over a year of this administration…. And we have 3 more years of this orange menace to completely destroy the US and world economies. Buy stock in gold and sell everything else.
akos_beres | 17 hours ago
Why is it surprising that an administration that doesn’t publicly acknowledge and demonstrate understanding of fairly simple topic as tariffs which have been studied, documented and observed for over a 100 years, can’t fully anticipate the economic impacts of a war that they didn’t even wanted to start but forced into joining. Hopefully, we will learn in the coming years how little preparation and analysis went into estimating economic and political impacts.
abhicoinexpansion | 12 hours ago
We are paying the price for the ill-advised actions of a man-child figure sitting in the white house.
Does Trump possess the strategic capacity to think through the consequences of his ill-advised actions.
It is difficult to fathom that an attack was launched against a country that controls the space through which 25% of the world's energy passes without any clear plan.
He disrupted the world economy. Wait for the oil prices to reach $200 per barrel.