Consumer sentiment hits fresh record low in May as Iran war fuels inflation worries

398 points by Illustrious_Lie_954 a day ago on reddit | 48 comments

LostMyKarmaElSegundo | a day ago

Reminds me of the woman behind me at the grocery checkout in December 2024.  She overheard my total and said, "that's going to be way lower next month!!!"

It's like she actually believed that Joe Biden was causing prices to be higher and Trump could just flip a switch and make things cheaper.

I wonder how she's doing now...

Consistent_Laziness | a day ago

Still probably saying the exact same line lmao. Poor thing. I wish I was that delusional

7ddlysuns | 23 hours ago

I met one of them. In march he swore gas prices were going to $2 a gallon this summer.

LostMyKarmaElSegundo | 23 hours ago

I'm sure he's found some way to rationalize the current situation.  I'm shocked at the number of people I see wearing Trump merchandise.  Cult is gonna cult, I guess.

Chemical-Fault-7331 | 21 hours ago

The racism. It’s always been the racism.

Zepcleanerfan | a day ago

Turned out, trump had a switch to flip to raise the price of everything.

[OP] Illustrious_Lie_954 | a day ago

This is becoming less about temporary inflation and more about consumer psychology breaking down. When sentiment hits record lows even while stocks stay near highs, it usually means regular households and financial markets are living in two completely different realities. Rising gas prices from the Iran war, higher grocery costs, expensive debt, and elevated bond yields are all hitting consumers at once.The University of Michigan sentiment index dropped to a record low 44.8, while inflation expectations kept rising showing people still don’t trust prices are under control. What stands out to me is that this starts creating a dangerous mix: weak confidence + sticky inflation + higher rates.That’s the kind of setup where spending eventually slows, even if markets keep rallying short term. Feels like Wall Street is still pricing optimism while Main Street is pricing stress.

IrlArizonaBoi | a day ago

I'm a simple man, and in 2019 I was making 40% less money than I am today.

I could afford, with smart shopping of sales, to eat 2 ribeye steaks a day, every day. Every 2 months, 5.99/lb no limit on sale.

Now, if I tried that it would cost more than my rent, and there are no sales to shop. $27/lb.

My Ribeye Steak economic index is in the shitter.

Own-Chemist2228 | a day ago

The price of beef is insane right now. I was at Costco a couple of days ago looking at the beef section and noticed so many people walking up to the freezer, looking at the prices, and walking away to get pork or chicken. I did the same.

Maximum-Side568 | a day ago

Sounds more like you were getting a great deal on ribeye back then and a shit deal right now.

7ddlysuns | 23 hours ago

Sure, but both things can be true. There was a time when deals were possible and now they arent

IrlArizonaBoi | 23 hours ago

Yes I was getting that price on a sale that was ran every 3 months or so and stocking the freezer.

NoForm5443 | a day ago

I mean, beef is one thing that's gone up a lot, but I can get Ribeye for 15/lb, and was definitely not buying it for $3 in 2019 ;)

d4electro | a day ago

Nah, I'm sure it's fine and won't lead to any negative consequences

AmyWilliamse | a day ago

Inflation hurts more when people stop believing it's temporary. Markets may stay high, but people may feel groceries, rent, fuel and interest rates everyday...and that slowly destroys consumer confidence.

d4electro | a day ago

We can eat data centers

Sea_Dawgz | 21 hours ago

they can eat you though.

GWS2004 | a day ago

Trump told everyone his plans and people voted for him anyway. It's the "find out" stage for these people. I have no faith they will learn a lesson about voting for the GOP though.

vincethered | a day ago

No; they will again fall hook line and sinker for “the democrats want kookie shit in high school bathrooms” again.

Prince_Ire | a day ago

When did Trump talk about starting a war with Iran? I'm pretty sure he said he would do literally the opposite

GWS2004 | a day ago

Tarrifs. Openly supported tarrifs since 2016. Tarrifs are playing a HUGE part in price increases.

jewel_flip | a day ago

I live in Canada and we are experiencing this exact level of financial strain. Our guy is as interesting as a piece of unbuttered toast. Has Trumps choices impacted all of our realities? Yes. But so has unmitigated greed from the owner/investor class. He’s a part of the story but he isn’t the only hungry ghost we’re up against. It seems to be built into all their genetics. It’s a class war. The vast majority of our leaders are cut from the same cloth as Trump, he’s just far louder than any of them have been before. Stop fighting left/right, it’s what they want us to do.

Test-NetConnection | 20 hours ago

You have my axe

GWS2004 | a day ago

"Stop fighting left/right, it’s what they want us to do."

Excellent point.

They have us blaming down and adjacent, but not up. "Don't look up".

Icedidit | a day ago

The problem with this thinking is that the right loves the elite and wealthy class.

The right would eat shit and walk on glass for a billionaire that’s lobbying to kill them before they even think about helping the left.

GWS2004 | a day ago

Agreed.

Petrichordates | a day ago

It's a terrible point.

This is literally happening because americans stupidly keep voting republican.

It's basically just telling you to ignore reality and try to pretend the problem isnt the electorate.

OMellito | a day ago

"It's not left/right" procedes to describe class war.

[Deleted] | a day ago

I want to decom an old machine, but to do so I need to buy a USB blueray burner to keep that functionality. This is a purchase I'd normally just make.

I have 2 people in my life who are always in a bad way, and I know I am going to need to help them out. So while I have the means, the rise in expenses, and the possibility that I will need to keep people from becoming homeless, means I'm spending less.

Y0___0Y | 21 hours ago

And yet consumer spending just keeps ticking up more and more and more month after month.

Target announced 2 days ago that their revenue exceeded expectations in Q1. Americans don’t seem to be struggling as much as they claim if they’re still driving to target and buying stupid shit they don’t need…

fail-deadly- | 10 hours ago

Is target actually selling more stupid shit, or are they selling less stupid shit, but at higher prices?

Proud_Photo_5227 | 21 hours ago

What does Target sell that people don’t need?

RealisticForYou | 17 hours ago

SuziQ does not need 20 pairs of shoes, and yet, shoppers always buy more than they need.

guachi01 | 22 hours ago

On the other hand, even tariffs had no discernable effect on Americans evaluation of their own financial situation in 2025.

I'm fine; it's everyone else who is suffering.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/report-economic-well-being-us-households.htm

[OP] Illustrious_Lie_954 | a day ago

This is becoming less about temporary inflation and more about consumer psychology breaking down. When sentiment hits record lows even while stocks stay near highs, it usually means regular households and financial markets are living in two completely different realities. Rising gas prices from the Iran war, higher grocery costs, expensive debt, and elevated bond yields are all hitting consumers at once. The University of Michigan sentiment index dropped to a record-low 44.8, while inflation expectations kept rising showing people still don’t trust prices are under control.What stands out to me is that this starts creating a dangerous mix: weak confidence + sticky inflation + higher rates. That’s the kind of setup where spending eventually slows, even if markets keep rallying short term. Feels like Wall Street is still pricing optimism while Main Street is pricing stress.

RealisticForYou | a day ago

Watch what people do, not what they say....

Consumer confidence data has proven to be nothing more than data collection from people who want to bitch about everything that is wrong.

I can say I hate inflation and that the country is headed in the wrong direction, while I buy a plane flight to Hawaii. Even Wall Street analysts have ignored consumer confidence data because the data does not reflect peoples spending habits.

LivefromPhoenix | 23 hours ago

Are the people reporting low confidence in the economy the same people making big luxury purchases? I don't know if this says people are lying or if it says consumer spending is being increasingly driven by a relatively small amount of high income earners.

guachi01 | 22 hours ago

Yes. Sentiment about the local and national economy has crashed while sentiment about personal financial situation has remained stable. I'm fine. It's that guy in the state I never visit who's suffering.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/report-economic-well-being-us-households.htm

RealisticForYou | 23 hours ago

Don't know. But someone on Reddit said something I believe is true.

When a Dem is in office, Rep's will say they have no confidence. When a Rep is in office, Dem's will say they have no confidence.

For years, I have heard that consumer confidence data can be more political than economic.

LivefromPhoenix | 22 hours ago

But that isn't true, you can look at the historical graph and see consumer sentiment has been high under democrats and republicans. If it was just partisan signalling wouldn't we see sentiment stay around the same mid-low level consistently? Not to mention the biggest declines happen around actual economic events like the COVID recession in March 2020, high inflation in 2022 and Trump's global tariffs in February 2025. If it was just politics wouldn't those declines happen immediately after elections/inaugurations?

RealisticForYou | 18 hours ago

I never said it was just politics…did I? I just gave an example of how people think.

RealisticForYou | a day ago

Tired of all the doom on Reddit...

Reported this morning is that even with high gas prices, airline flights are booking fast, while this travel season is looking to be the best in U.S. history.

Like the inflation spike in 2022, the U.S. did NOT hit a recession as many feared as consumers continued to spend money...both at the low income and high income consumer base.