I was gonna type it out but I found this more succinct reply
Silver acts as both a precious metal and a critical industrial commodity (used in electronics and solar panels), its performance during high inflation heavily depends on industrial demand alongside investor panic.
That's true but not the main reason why the price moves as it does. Gold moves somewhat similarly and has very few actualy usages in the industry/economy.
People buy silver or other precious metals in expectation of inflation, which moves their price way before any inflation takes place (if it does).
So if the interest rates are expected to be rise inflation expectations are curbed which leads to silver prices dropping in the short term. Vice versa if a long period of low interest rates is expected that then leads to silver prices spiking. Or gold.
I consider myself to be one of those people that are not a brain dead moron, of which there are many more than I think anybody thought in this country. Having said that I have to say I don’t have a clue what that means. Would you mind giving the short version? Please and thank you.
The 10 year treasury yield is 1, kind of like a credit score for a country, and 2, acts as the benchmark for lending for the entire economy. Higher bond yields mean the US credit rating is worse, people don’t want to lend to the US because of bad policy. Higher yields also means the entire financial system would rather have higher lending rates. This means your credit card rates go up, your car borrowing rates go up, your mortgage rates go up. Every day Americans will see their discretionary spend fall because they have to hold off spending on things that require credit.
Basically, people are about to see just how Trump managed to bankrupt his casinos. Pray he doesn’t bankrupt the US. Yields at 5% means we’re on our way to a debt spiral.
Its a weird back and forth. Yes youre correct but the big picture is a big pullback in money supply and deflating assets across the board. If you own 1 million bucks worth of gold and Nvidia stock drops 50%, youd probbaly consider selling it to buy some of that stock.
While the precious metals are a hedge, they arent immune to macroeconomic forces. As otherwise stated they also have many industrial uses (even gold and especially silver.)
Fed is far behind. The fear is that the Fed will have to create another depression/financial crisis to get inflation under control. (meaning forced to leave rates higher as cracks already are forming and some disinflation is showing up in some sectors) If there is already a narrative of inflation (it appears they finally got the memo after a decade), then they'll keep rates high regardless of data.
if something breaks, silver going down is natural
if something doesn't break, silver literally could skyrocket in the next 10 years
A friendly reminder to first time economists, inflation is a psychological narrative. To be fair it's not only psychological, but in deeply inflationary times, it absolutely can be.
Fed isn't far behind given this is a supply driven price shock and not self-reinforcing inflation expectations. Long run inflation expectations are still solidly anchored, for now.
Considering we already had the self-reinforcing inflation expectations with record runs throughout all asset classes, now we will see what will happen next. What happened to bitcoin, real estate, gold etc etc is still inflation. Those carry psychological weight and put real fear into savers holding dollars. It causes people to buy anything that will grow in value at the earliest opportunity exacerbating inflation and causing real problems in being able to control it. To be fair, holding dollars right now is likely the right thing to do but still this is about very basic theory on inflation and expectations of it.
Help me understand why Silver will skyrocket if nothing breaks? (Seems to me it’s well positioned in either case- strong industrial demand + inflation hedge during a potential debt spiral)
Silver price is a volatility calculation derived from western financial algorithms. If volatility stays suppressed, it will grow uncontrollably and parabolically from here. If liquidity is drained due to liquidity problems due to inflation, silver will go down and the bubble of all assets will pop. My guess? My personal opinion is that volatility is an abstraction derived from market algorithms. Volatility actually went down more after Ukraine and Russia went to war then it went up lol, so it very well could mean that silver is going to be driven up from here as the market is making money off of traders, and the more traders bet against it the more it will go up (0DTE options essentially currently guarantee this). That's all I know though. Very interesting times. Doubtful if the US would do the right thing and let the bubble pop. Just listen to Trump. So my guess is considering the volatility calculation of silver, I think it could grow in ways in the next decade that would make essentially all other asset holder incredibly jealous. (one of my scenarios is it happening even if the bubble pops) Silver isn't really owned by anybody. It's just an industrial metal at the forefront of technology and the more somebody pays for a piece of electronics, the more silver will be in the device. This is the age of AI and robotics and we likely will see several decades of growth from it imo. From google ai:
High-end robotics typically contain between 15 and 30 grams of silver per unit. While this seems like a small amount, it is significantly higher than other advanced tech; for context, a smartphone contains only about 0.25 to 0.35 grams, and a standard laptop holds roughly 1 gram.
Because silver has the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of any metal, it is a vital, non-negotiable material for the delicate, rapid data processing required by advanced autonomous systems.
This is a stupid ass article. Silver went from being 30 some dollars forever. Then it jumped 300% and now has coasted back down some. It's still 75 bucks so over double what it was a year ago.
The last, best opportunity was then. Next last, best opportunity is TODAY because everybody knows having Cheeto Man for President things are going to go up and get pricey…
20 years from now there will be another digit added to everything….not hard to see it….we went from $97 Nintendo GameCubes and 99 cent gas to the next decimal point over…
Now we have $500 Nintendo Switches and $5.00 gas…this is what loss of purchasing power and currency inflation feels like..
What if inflation will (is already) go up But rates will not go up because Trump and his administration will muscle the Fed to stay put. I think this is a very likely scenario and it will last another 2.5 years. At the same time Gov spending has no limits cuz no one cares / we don’t have to pay it back ever.
People forget metals reacts more to interest rates than inflation itself sometimes => hotter inflation leads to fewer Fed cuts then higher yields then pressure on gold/silver and silver get hit even harder because it’s also an industrial metal.
Is manipulation/ a fake ass system that revolves around the bankers. It’s as simple as that. Until more people understand that our dollar and any other currency is not worth shit, then we’ll continue this cycle of getting poorer each year while the elites that control the system gets richer. I bought silver ( a lot in short period of time). I lost faith that it’ll never go up to where it should be on price. Don’t get me wrong wrong, it pisses me off when these Ashlee come rich by being sleezy like Friday but the difference is I am not surprised.
Primsun | 15 hours ago
What, isn't precious metals supposed to be insulated from inflation? Unless you are assuming higher rates that increase the real rate of interest?
Seems to defeat the purpose if it loses actual and then relative value under inflation.
MayContainRawNuts | 15 hours ago
I was gonna type it out but I found this more succinct reply
Silver acts as both a precious metal and a critical industrial commodity (used in electronics and solar panels), its performance during high inflation heavily depends on industrial demand alongside investor panic.
WhenTheLightHits30 | 14 hours ago
Aka, if we see a global recession largely driven by these oil shortages that means less need for the industrial side
findingmike | 12 hours ago
But we aren't seeing that, data centers are still getting build and sucking up all kinds of resources, including silver.
tehifimk2 | 8 hours ago
Kind of. A lot of those projects are stalling, it seems. Or permits being granted, then nothing, or just someone preliminary works, then nothing.
Jove_ | 9 hours ago
For now…
averysmallbeing | 5 hours ago
For how long?
BaronOfTheVoid | 13 hours ago
That's true but not the main reason why the price moves as it does. Gold moves somewhat similarly and has very few actualy usages in the industry/economy.
People buy silver or other precious metals in expectation of inflation, which moves their price way before any inflation takes place (if it does).
So if the interest rates are expected to be rise inflation expectations are curbed which leads to silver prices dropping in the short term. Vice versa if a long period of low interest rates is expected that then leads to silver prices spiking. Or gold.
findingmike | 12 hours ago
Shouldn't silver be going up then since demand for it is still high?
1mp3rf3c7 | 9 hours ago
It should. But it has also run up a lot in the past 2 years, like gold.
HeftyAd6216 | 8 hours ago
Funny another way to put what you said
MaksimilenRobespiere | 15 hours ago
Wait for the treasury yields go over 5 and see how “precious” those metals are. There will be blood………………..
Primsun | 15 hours ago
30-year already went over 5%
MaksimilenRobespiere | 14 hours ago
Yup, 10-year will follow.
MaxPower303 | 14 hours ago
Fuck. Wish more brain dead morons understood what this means for the U.S.
BigDuck777 | 14 hours ago
I consider myself to be one of those people that are not a brain dead moron, of which there are many more than I think anybody thought in this country. Having said that I have to say I don’t have a clue what that means. Would you mind giving the short version? Please and thank you.
tachyonvelocity | 13 hours ago
The 10 year treasury yield is 1, kind of like a credit score for a country, and 2, acts as the benchmark for lending for the entire economy. Higher bond yields mean the US credit rating is worse, people don’t want to lend to the US because of bad policy. Higher yields also means the entire financial system would rather have higher lending rates. This means your credit card rates go up, your car borrowing rates go up, your mortgage rates go up. Every day Americans will see their discretionary spend fall because they have to hold off spending on things that require credit.
Basically, people are about to see just how Trump managed to bankrupt his casinos. Pray he doesn’t bankrupt the US. Yields at 5% means we’re on our way to a debt spiral.
devliegende | 3 hours ago
5% is some sort of magic number?
BigDuck777 | an hour ago
Appreciate it. Thank you!
TheProfessional9 | 14 hours ago
Things are headed towards a very bad place. Think 2000 and 2007 but with heavy inflation alongside it
frezzzer | 14 hours ago
More like 70s
jaraxel_arabani | 13 hours ago
Stagflation is the term
BrianLefevre5 | 12 hours ago
But instead of those jobs coming back after the upcoming recession, they’ll be consumed by AI and the populace will be worse off in the long run.
MaxPower303 | 13 hours ago
How much time do you have and do you have a good understanding of the fundamentals of economic theory? That’s a good place to start.
BukkakeKing69 | 14 hours ago
Higher bond yields make them more attractive, pushing down investor demand for precious metals.
Last I remember reading Warsh was known for wanting to shrink the balance sheet quite a bit, which if he does will raise bond yields.
The_Admiral_ | 14 hours ago
Higher real bond yields, if inflation catches up it should be neutral for metals.
macgart | 15 hours ago
They will probably raise rates better to have the $ on hand and see where it is going.
hiricinee | 6 hours ago
Its a weird back and forth. Yes youre correct but the big picture is a big pullback in money supply and deflating assets across the board. If you own 1 million bucks worth of gold and Nvidia stock drops 50%, youd probbaly consider selling it to buy some of that stock.
While the precious metals are a hedge, they arent immune to macroeconomic forces. As otherwise stated they also have many industrial uses (even gold and especially silver.)
Virtual_Magazine_860 | 12 hours ago
Fed is far behind. The fear is that the Fed will have to create another depression/financial crisis to get inflation under control. (meaning forced to leave rates higher as cracks already are forming and some disinflation is showing up in some sectors) If there is already a narrative of inflation (it appears they finally got the memo after a decade), then they'll keep rates high regardless of data.
if something breaks, silver going down is natural
if something doesn't break, silver literally could skyrocket in the next 10 years
A friendly reminder to first time economists, inflation is a psychological narrative. To be fair it's not only psychological, but in deeply inflationary times, it absolutely can be.
Primsun | 12 hours ago
Fed isn't far behind given this is a supply driven price shock and not self-reinforcing inflation expectations. Long run inflation expectations are still solidly anchored, for now.
Virtual_Magazine_860 | 12 hours ago
Considering we already had the self-reinforcing inflation expectations with record runs throughout all asset classes, now we will see what will happen next. What happened to bitcoin, real estate, gold etc etc is still inflation. Those carry psychological weight and put real fear into savers holding dollars. It causes people to buy anything that will grow in value at the earliest opportunity exacerbating inflation and causing real problems in being able to control it. To be fair, holding dollars right now is likely the right thing to do but still this is about very basic theory on inflation and expectations of it.
gethereddout | 11 hours ago
Help me understand why Silver will skyrocket if nothing breaks? (Seems to me it’s well positioned in either case- strong industrial demand + inflation hedge during a potential debt spiral)
Virtual_Magazine_860 | 8 hours ago
Silver price is a volatility calculation derived from western financial algorithms. If volatility stays suppressed, it will grow uncontrollably and parabolically from here. If liquidity is drained due to liquidity problems due to inflation, silver will go down and the bubble of all assets will pop. My guess? My personal opinion is that volatility is an abstraction derived from market algorithms. Volatility actually went down more after Ukraine and Russia went to war then it went up lol, so it very well could mean that silver is going to be driven up from here as the market is making money off of traders, and the more traders bet against it the more it will go up (0DTE options essentially currently guarantee this). That's all I know though. Very interesting times. Doubtful if the US would do the right thing and let the bubble pop. Just listen to Trump. So my guess is considering the volatility calculation of silver, I think it could grow in ways in the next decade that would make essentially all other asset holder incredibly jealous. (one of my scenarios is it happening even if the bubble pops) Silver isn't really owned by anybody. It's just an industrial metal at the forefront of technology and the more somebody pays for a piece of electronics, the more silver will be in the device. This is the age of AI and robotics and we likely will see several decades of growth from it imo. From google ai:
High-end robotics typically contain between 15 and 30 grams of silver per unit. While this seems like a small amount, it is significantly higher than other advanced tech; for context, a smartphone contains only about 0.25 to 0.35 grams, and a standard laptop holds roughly 1 gram.
Because silver has the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of any metal, it is a vital, non-negotiable material for the delicate, rapid data processing required by advanced autonomous systems.
evident_lee | 14 hours ago
This is a stupid ass article. Silver went from being 30 some dollars forever. Then it jumped 300% and now has coasted back down some. It's still 75 bucks so over double what it was a year ago.
brightheaded | 14 hours ago
Lol and it was 20$ for like a decade
AgentUnknown821 | 2 hours ago
Double or 4 times more than 10 years ago….
The last, best opportunity was then. Next last, best opportunity is TODAY because everybody knows having Cheeto Man for President things are going to go up and get pricey…
20 years from now there will be another digit added to everything….not hard to see it….we went from $97 Nintendo GameCubes and 99 cent gas to the next decimal point over…
Now we have $500 Nintendo Switches and $5.00 gas…this is what loss of purchasing power and currency inflation feels like..
coalescence2071 | 6 hours ago
What if inflation will (is already) go up But rates will not go up because Trump and his administration will muscle the Fed to stay put. I think this is a very likely scenario and it will last another 2.5 years. At the same time Gov spending has no limits cuz no one cares / we don’t have to pay it back ever.
[OP] VulcanSpark | 6 hours ago
then Y powel said he wil stay on? U dont trust him as well?
Low_Ability4450 | 24 minutes ago
People forget metals reacts more to interest rates than inflation itself sometimes => hotter inflation leads to fewer Fed cuts then higher yields then pressure on gold/silver and silver get hit even harder because it’s also an industrial metal.
Ok-Newspaper-4801 | 9 hours ago
Is manipulation/ a fake ass system that revolves around the bankers. It’s as simple as that. Until more people understand that our dollar and any other currency is not worth shit, then we’ll continue this cycle of getting poorer each year while the elites that control the system gets richer. I bought silver ( a lot in short period of time). I lost faith that it’ll never go up to where it should be on price. Don’t get me wrong wrong, it pisses me off when these Ashlee come rich by being sleezy like Friday but the difference is I am not surprised.
averysmallbeing | 5 hours ago
What