> The war against Iran that the United States and Israel launched on February 28, 2026, will likely end in an American retreat. The United States cannot continue the war without producing disastrous consequences
This is assuming Trump cares the slightest bit about disastrous consequences.
Trump told one of his aides that "[he] doesn‘t care, because we all die soon.“
That‘s why you don’t elect people that will never see the consequences of their actions. Electing an 80 years old tub of lard thinking that he will save your future. Morons.
Yup! And while Trump puts his name on things everywhere, it will be the rest of the world that has maps with "United States of Disastrous Consequences."
Hes already handed over the world economic superpower status to China on a silver platter. The consequences are here, they just arent being fully felt yet.
Yes countries that had scaled back trade with China over the past 5 years have all run back and signed new trade agreements with them as the US tariffs were put into place…. Great job Dump
I think “disastrous consequences” is actually the goal here.
The one thing he won’t do is put boots on the ground because he knows that’s what got Obama elected. But he’s too brain addled to remember anything else and it’s gone on for longer than 2 weeks so he’s ready to change the channel but doesn’t like to be seen losing.
It really doesn't. It's only a matter of when. Trump fucked it up already, so there's no real path to victory for the US government. Hell, he never even outlined any raison d'etre, so literally nothing is a victory.
That in itself wouldn’t stop him from randomly declaring victory. He likes to create his own reality. Very much “the emperor has no clothes” sort of crazy cult.
He would have done it months ago if it would have been effective. A bbc program in April noted that much of the fallout on one specific nuke facility in a mountain would result in the fallout spreading over the gulf coast countries. the alternative is to nuke Tehran and other major cities, and that wouldn’t stop the iranians from retaliating anyway
I too am worried about this “after the elections”
Stuff. He is just fucking nuts enough to launch a nuclear strike on them just after the midterms thinking it’s good timing because now he is “unleashed” or whatever nonsense his cult believes in
One thing that makes stupid people dangerous is that they are too stupid to know when they have lost. Trump will salvage nothing from his defeat, he is too stupid to cut Americas losses early, so America's strategic losses will be incalculably worse than under more competent leadership. A competent leader wouldn't have started this obviously unwinnable war in the first place.
I don't buy it, all the anti USA acts by our own current garbage administration seems very deliberate, even if they put a clown face in front of it all, by clown face I mean trump heh heh heh
While the world slowly move away from fossil fuel, Trump double down on the Drill Baby, Drill motto.
He kills all renewables in the US, dreams about Venezuela and Canada's oil riches.
It is not a stretch to think he intends to annex Iran's oil with a compliant new regime to have new oil block: US-Venezuela-Canada-Iran and Greenland for its potential.
It is sad that fantasies of an old men ends in so much pain and death all over the world.
>The Iranian government did not fracture. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), far from being decapitated, emerged with a tightened internal command and an expanded role in the national-security architecture. The supreme leader’s office held; the religious establishment closed ranks behind it; and the population rallied against external attack.
Disagree with this part, there has been a regime change but not in the US favor. The Supreme Leader is in a Schrodinger state of ambiguity with still no public appearances despite being allegedly alive. He is very much in a weaker position than his father
Iran seemingly has transitioned from a theocracy to more of a military junta with the IRGC itself filling in the vacuum. Problem for the US is that this junta is very much ideologically inclined to go maximalist instead of for further negotiations like the civilian government tries to do. You often see two distinct messages of conciliation coming from Pezeshkian and aggression coming from the IRGC, with the IRGC leading the actual show
EDIT: Reading it fully, this is a rather one-sided article
T would kill him at any time. T also could’ve killed his father at any time in term 1. I don’t know if he’s in a weaker position, I’m sure once this dies down, if he’s actually alive, he’s gonna be public all the time.
If he’s truly disfigured, then that sucks. For him, obviously. But his lack of public appearances would be less about political power and more about his physical deformity.
I mean, yes. There’s very likely no other way out of this war.
Trump cannot put troops on the ground in any way that would do any good. He can’t bomb Iran into submission. He doesn’t have the weapons to continue the war as is indefinitely. And they don’t trust him with a treaty after he already violated negotiated talks twice. All he can really do is periodically bomb Iran, and hope something else happens that causes them to sue for peace.
The smartest move Trump did was transition the war into an attrition phase with heightened sanctions and a blockade. It is actually having a bad effect on Iran that is forcing them to make increasingly difficult choices to continue
Problem is that the endgame for that attrition is extremely vague as the US is just hoping the worsening conditions will lead to capitulation. The IRGC has two things going for it that is making them hold out; they know about TACO and that Trump very much lacks the spine to take a hard stance at negotiations. The second factor is that the IRGC is very much willing to get its hands stained with blood to keep the public compliant during a collapsing economy as seen by the massacres early this year.
> The smartest move Trump did was transition the war into an attrition phase with heightened sanctions and a blockade. It is actually having a bad effect on Iran that is forcing them to make increasingly difficult choices to continue
Iran has been sanctioned for like 50 years though. The population has already been living under harsh economic conditions. The war of attrition is costing the US a great deal more than it is costing Iran. Not only through the cost of it's military expenditure but also the cost to it's global reputation.
Most of the world isn't thrilled with this war as it is making life more expensive for pretty much everyone and the US doesn't seem to have a path forward that will result in any kind of win so what is the point? To simply punish everyone for no good reason? It's absolutely daft
by massacres you mean trump, netenyahu openly bragging that they armed thousands of dissidents who were filmed in 4K burning police stations and shooting cops and civilians? no nation would tolerate marauders armed by foreigners to cause civil strife in their country
Why is a opinion piece, that has nothing on economics and written by people who aren’t even economist in this sub. Mods need to remove this propaganda junk.
So I wasted more time after seeing your reply. This is from May and there is no mention of anything related to economist in the article. I read his profile and what is “sustainable development”
I'd feel better if top 1% of economics didn't post editorials that didn't have any real connection to economics. I'd feel better if the economics subreddit went back to somewhat educated discussions of economics.
Something being written by an economist doesn't mean that it was written from an economic perspective as required by the rules. You post it while you know the mods are asleep with the knowledge it'll be taken down. Hopefully they ban you.
Everything being done by the USA during the Trump administrations can be explained by him being a foreign asset. He has done nothing that is in the best interest of the countries or even a minority of Americans unless you single out the Billionaires and even that's a stretch. They're just unintended beneficiaries since the Trump administrations are so corrupt.
yes, this I buy, even if the "conservatives" hide behind clown face trump, the very deliberate actions of kneecapping US capabilities is very very hard to hide.
I suspect right after elections we will get a true accounting of the cost of the war which is clearly being covered up.
The cost in equipment, armaments (which given inflation will be much more expensive to replace), ship maintenance, and most especially personnel related costs (when it is officially reclassified as a 'war') will be an order of magnitude beyond what's claimed.
Not in the near term. First, the blockade is relatively cheap to maintain and fairly effective. Second, Trump's ego is too fragile to end the war on someone else's terms. So unless congress grows a spine and forces a retreat, we're not going anywhere anytime soon.
It is possible this is a long play to inflate the debt as far as possible until the next POTUS election and retreat just before that to regain popularity by easing prices.
Yea no shit unless we drop a nuke. Even if we destabilize their military entirely they will resort to guerilla warfare and it will be Iraq and Vietnam all over again.
Ah yes, Al Jazeera, bastion of unbiased and free press.
Iran is clearly feeling immense pressure from economic sanctions and the blockade. The Hormuz is losing its importance the longer it stays out of commission, weakening the pain of its closure. It also doesn't make the news but oil is making its way out as exporters find ways around the threat Iran poses (small transport vessels which unload to larger ships docked out of the straight)
The point is that none of that rules out an American retreat.
Say that Iran's economy continues its current path and devolves into a failed state with a military junta, will that prevent Iranian nuclear ambitions? Say that every single barrel that used to go through the strait will now pass through alternative routes, will that prevent Iran from developing atom bombs?
The US conditions for peace is that Iran will not and can not operate nuclear weapons, any cessation of war before those claims are met is an American retreat.
They’re bleak for Iran as well but they have the great advantage of being quite hard boiled compared to Americans and the regime not having to fear mid terms.
This sub loves to post the hopes and dreams of Iranian propaganda.
Fact of the matter is America will never withdraw from the Middle East. Americans love their oil.
The US is fine with the status quo. Trump's oil buddies make more money. Saudi Arabia finds alternative routes to ship their oil. Demand destruction is occurring by people buying more electric cars. Iran is too wrecked to develop nuclear weapons.
Republicans have already lost the midterms, so what happens now in Iran and the Middle East doesn't matter to them.
Trump can just sit and wait; Iran can't do anything meaningful except launch a shoulder fired rocket at the occasional cargo ship like a simple terrorist. The world is moving on.
David Petraeus has given multiple interviews now where hes admitted that 15 American military bases in the middle east are no longer useable because of Irans bombing. In his own words, he said the American basing strategy, including these 15 bases, are no longer viable.
American General Barry McCaffery said that the US would have to retreat to Southern Europe and make new arrangements with these countries as that's where the activity will go.
These are American generals admitting Iran has destroyed the US basing strategy in the middle east, and the US will have to move farther away from Iran to be safe.
That is retreating.
As far as America winning, we failed to protect our middle eastern allies. Even as Saudi Arabia is begging for help. We let Israel bomb Qatar that is supposed to be one of our closest allies. And we are now leaving running from our bases.
All while Trump replaced a Khamenei with a Khamenei.
That's not winning, that is a diminished America. That is an America that damn sure can't take on China, because it can't even beat Iran. I would be horrified if I was Taiwan.
Toadfinger | 13 hours ago
> The war against Iran that the United States and Israel launched on February 28, 2026, will likely end in an American retreat. The United States cannot continue the war without producing disastrous consequences
This is assuming Trump cares the slightest bit about disastrous consequences.
Smartimess | 13 hours ago
Trump told one of his aides that "[he] doesn‘t care, because we all die soon.“
That‘s why you don’t elect people that will never see the consequences of their actions. Electing an 80 years old tub of lard thinking that he will save your future. Morons.
missbwith2boys | 11 hours ago
“ we all die soon”?
Makes me think a meteor is our salvation.
SargeUnited | 12 hours ago
To be fair, he did save many of our futures. It’s just that he’s also emotionally draining me by doing all this nonsense
Strong_as_an_axe | 12 hours ago
Elaborate
ClubLowrez | 11 hours ago
He hasn't saved the USA's future thats for sure, maybe some high ranking israili's got saved I dunno lol
harps86 | 10 hours ago
Go on
WickedFrags | 13 hours ago
Isn't "Disastrous Consequences" like... his middle name?
Toadfinger | 12 hours ago
Yup! And while Trump puts his name on things everywhere, it will be the rest of the world that has maps with "United States of Disastrous Consequences."
I'm tired boss!
_Gobulcoque | 12 hours ago
> > > > > I'm tired boss!
Tired... of so much winning!
Whatdosheepdreamof | 12 hours ago
They mean disastrous for the US. Power projection, inflation, food shortages etc.
Busterlimes | 12 hours ago
Hes already handed over the world economic superpower status to China on a silver platter. The consequences are here, they just arent being fully felt yet.
nelly2929 | 10 hours ago
Yes countries that had scaled back trade with China over the past 5 years have all run back and signed new trade agreements with them as the US tariffs were put into place…. Great job Dump
wbruce098 | 12 hours ago
I think “disastrous consequences” is actually the goal here.
The one thing he won’t do is put boots on the ground because he knows that’s what got Obama elected. But he’s too brain addled to remember anything else and it’s gone on for longer than 2 weeks so he’s ready to change the channel but doesn’t like to be seen losing.
in2the4est | 10 hours ago
Does changing the channel look something like this?
The US lays groundwork for possible military action in Cuba, according to 'CBS News'
dr-broodles | 13 hours ago
He told tucker Carlson he doesn’t care about the consequences as ‘we all die’
progbuck | 12 hours ago
It really doesn't. It's only a matter of when. Trump fucked it up already, so there's no real path to victory for the US government. Hell, he never even outlined any raison d'etre, so literally nothing is a victory.
missbwith2boys | 11 hours ago
That in itself wouldn’t stop him from randomly declaring victory. He likes to create his own reality. Very much “the emperor has no clothes” sort of crazy cult.
MaddogFinland | 11 hours ago
My honest concern is that this guy wants to use nuclear weapons. And our law gives him the sole authority to do it.
Cap_Tuvix | 11 hours ago
He would have done it months ago if it would have been effective. A bbc program in April noted that much of the fallout on one specific nuke facility in a mountain would result in the fallout spreading over the gulf coast countries. the alternative is to nuke Tehran and other major cities, and that wouldn’t stop the iranians from retaliating anyway
Ok_Primary_1075 | 11 hours ago
And that’s why he’s announcing it after the elections….he feels announcing it before will be more disastrous for the GOP
MaddogFinland | 11 hours ago
I too am worried about this “after the elections”
Stuff. He is just fucking nuts enough to launch a nuclear strike on them just after the midterms thinking it’s good timing because now he is “unleashed” or whatever nonsense his cult believes in
newaccount47 | 10 hours ago
As Trump says "we're all going to die someday anyway."
TheTench | 12 hours ago
One thing that makes stupid people dangerous is that they are too stupid to know when they have lost. Trump will salvage nothing from his defeat, he is too stupid to cut Americas losses early, so America's strategic losses will be incalculably worse than under more competent leadership. A competent leader wouldn't have started this obviously unwinnable war in the first place.
ClubLowrez | 11 hours ago
I don't buy it, all the anti USA acts by our own current garbage administration seems very deliberate, even if they put a clown face in front of it all, by clown face I mean trump heh heh heh
Money-University8717 | 12 hours ago
While the world slowly move away from fossil fuel, Trump double down on the Drill Baby, Drill motto.
He kills all renewables in the US, dreams about Venezuela and Canada's oil riches. It is not a stretch to think he intends to annex Iran's oil with a compliant new regime to have new oil block: US-Venezuela-Canada-Iran and Greenland for its potential. It is sad that fantasies of an old men ends in so much pain and death all over the world.
dwarffy | 13 hours ago
>The Iranian government did not fracture. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), far from being decapitated, emerged with a tightened internal command and an expanded role in the national-security architecture. The supreme leader’s office held; the religious establishment closed ranks behind it; and the population rallied against external attack.
Disagree with this part, there has been a regime change but not in the US favor. The Supreme Leader is in a Schrodinger state of ambiguity with still no public appearances despite being allegedly alive. He is very much in a weaker position than his father
Iran seemingly has transitioned from a theocracy to more of a military junta with the IRGC itself filling in the vacuum. Problem for the US is that this junta is very much ideologically inclined to go maximalist instead of for further negotiations like the civilian government tries to do. You often see two distinct messages of conciliation coming from Pezeshkian and aggression coming from the IRGC, with the IRGC leading the actual show
EDIT: Reading it fully, this is a rather one-sided article
SargeUnited | 12 hours ago
T would kill him at any time. T also could’ve killed his father at any time in term 1. I don’t know if he’s in a weaker position, I’m sure once this dies down, if he’s actually alive, he’s gonna be public all the time.
If he’s truly disfigured, then that sucks. For him, obviously. But his lack of public appearances would be less about political power and more about his physical deformity.
Heffe3737 | 13 hours ago
I mean, yes. There’s very likely no other way out of this war.
Trump cannot put troops on the ground in any way that would do any good. He can’t bomb Iran into submission. He doesn’t have the weapons to continue the war as is indefinitely. And they don’t trust him with a treaty after he already violated negotiated talks twice. All he can really do is periodically bomb Iran, and hope something else happens that causes them to sue for peace.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes I guess.
dwarffy | 12 hours ago
The smartest move Trump did was transition the war into an attrition phase with heightened sanctions and a blockade. It is actually having a bad effect on Iran that is forcing them to make increasingly difficult choices to continue
Problem is that the endgame for that attrition is extremely vague as the US is just hoping the worsening conditions will lead to capitulation. The IRGC has two things going for it that is making them hold out; they know about TACO and that Trump very much lacks the spine to take a hard stance at negotiations. The second factor is that the IRGC is very much willing to get its hands stained with blood to keep the public compliant during a collapsing economy as seen by the massacres early this year.
Heffe3737 | 4 hours ago
Totally agreed.
JFHermes | 9 hours ago
> The smartest move Trump did was transition the war into an attrition phase with heightened sanctions and a blockade. It is actually having a bad effect on Iran that is forcing them to make increasingly difficult choices to continue
Iran has been sanctioned for like 50 years though. The population has already been living under harsh economic conditions. The war of attrition is costing the US a great deal more than it is costing Iran. Not only through the cost of it's military expenditure but also the cost to it's global reputation.
Most of the world isn't thrilled with this war as it is making life more expensive for pretty much everyone and the US doesn't seem to have a path forward that will result in any kind of win so what is the point? To simply punish everyone for no good reason? It's absolutely daft
Cap_Tuvix | 11 hours ago
by massacres you mean trump, netenyahu openly bragging that they armed thousands of dissidents who were filmed in 4K burning police stations and shooting cops and civilians? no nation would tolerate marauders armed by foreigners to cause civil strife in their country
ClueOk1833 | 12 hours ago
The logical end is famine and economic collapse. Everyone looses this war even those choosing not to participate. Let's run away to Chile
Beginning-Luck-4026 | 11 hours ago
Why is a opinion piece, that has nothing on economics and written by people who aren’t even economist in this sub. Mods need to remove this propaganda junk.
[OP] DeRpY_CUCUMBER | 11 hours ago
The piece is written by well known American economist Jeffrey Sachs. You were so mad you wrote yoir comment before even checking. Lazy…
Beginning-Luck-4026 | 11 hours ago
So I wasted more time after seeing your reply. This is from May and there is no mention of anything related to economist in the article. I read his profile and what is “sustainable development”
eptesicusfuscus | 11 hours ago
Yeah okay but wouldn't you feel better knowing America is dumb and losing?
fx2600 | 10 hours ago
I'd feel better if top 1% of economics didn't post editorials that didn't have any real connection to economics. I'd feel better if the economics subreddit went back to somewhat educated discussions of economics.
fx2600 | 10 hours ago
Something being written by an economist doesn't mean that it was written from an economic perspective as required by the rules. You post it while you know the mods are asleep with the knowledge it'll be taken down. Hopefully they ban you.
Otherwise_Volume_128 | 12 hours ago
Everything being done by the USA during the Trump administrations can be explained by him being a foreign asset. He has done nothing that is in the best interest of the countries or even a minority of Americans unless you single out the Billionaires and even that's a stretch. They're just unintended beneficiaries since the Trump administrations are so corrupt.
ClubLowrez | 11 hours ago
yes, this I buy, even if the "conservatives" hide behind clown face trump, the very deliberate actions of kneecapping US capabilities is very very hard to hide.
wildyam | 11 hours ago
Likely? It already has. Bases abandoned, re-supply and mission capabilities lost or severely degraded, allies abandoned, credibility destroyed….
neck_iso | 9 hours ago
I suspect right after elections we will get a true accounting of the cost of the war which is clearly being covered up.
The cost in equipment, armaments (which given inflation will be much more expensive to replace), ship maintenance, and most especially personnel related costs (when it is officially reclassified as a 'war') will be an order of magnitude beyond what's claimed.
Bill_Salmons | 11 hours ago
Not in the near term. First, the blockade is relatively cheap to maintain and fairly effective. Second, Trump's ego is too fragile to end the war on someone else's terms. So unless congress grows a spine and forces a retreat, we're not going anywhere anytime soon.
Shaskakmat | 9 hours ago
Cheap ? I don't think it's Cheap for US citizen or Europe citizen, costs are rising fast.
Bottlecrate | 11 hours ago
You mean Republicans in Congress grow a spine. Which won’t happen so when Dems take over…
Puzzled-Hornet7473 | 13 hours ago
It is possible this is a long play to inflate the debt as far as possible until the next POTUS election and retreat just before that to regain popularity by easing prices.
Rekrabsrm | 11 hours ago
The reason Iran wants nuclear weapons is to protect them selves from more US attacks. Maybe stop giving them reasons to want nuclear weapons???
Redditisannoying69 | 10 hours ago
Yea no shit unless we drop a nuke. Even if we destabilize their military entirely they will resort to guerilla warfare and it will be Iraq and Vietnam all over again.
Unlucky_Company_945 | 12 hours ago
Ah yes, Al Jazeera, bastion of unbiased and free press.
Iran is clearly feeling immense pressure from economic sanctions and the blockade. The Hormuz is losing its importance the longer it stays out of commission, weakening the pain of its closure. It also doesn't make the news but oil is making its way out as exporters find ways around the threat Iran poses (small transport vessels which unload to larger ships docked out of the straight)
[OP] DeRpY_CUCUMBER | 12 hours ago
Look at who wrote the piece. Its Jeffrey Sachs. An American Economist and highly respected around the world.
Chipay | 12 hours ago
The point is that none of that rules out an American retreat.
Say that Iran's economy continues its current path and devolves into a failed state with a military junta, will that prevent Iranian nuclear ambitions? Say that every single barrel that used to go through the strait will now pass through alternative routes, will that prevent Iran from developing atom bombs?
The US conditions for peace is that Iran will not and can not operate nuclear weapons, any cessation of war before those claims are met is an American retreat.
Easy_Hearing8247 | 11 hours ago
U know this was qritten 6 months ago right. Almost a couple weeks after this shit started.
Rupperrt | 11 hours ago
Yeah and things look even more bleak for US now
Easy_Hearing8247 | 11 hours ago
Is that why Iran's PM just spent the week in New York telling any reporter who would talk to them that they wish the M.o.M. back. 🤔
Rupperrt | 11 hours ago
They’re bleak for Iran as well but they have the great advantage of being quite hard boiled compared to Americans and the regime not having to fear mid terms.
IamInternationalBig | 12 hours ago
American retreat?
This sub loves to post the hopes and dreams of Iranian propaganda.
Fact of the matter is America will never withdraw from the Middle East. Americans love their oil.
The US is fine with the status quo. Trump's oil buddies make more money. Saudi Arabia finds alternative routes to ship their oil. Demand destruction is occurring by people buying more electric cars. Iran is too wrecked to develop nuclear weapons.
Republicans have already lost the midterms, so what happens now in Iran and the Middle East doesn't matter to them.
Trump can just sit and wait; Iran can't do anything meaningful except launch a shoulder fired rocket at the occasional cargo ship like a simple terrorist. The world is moving on.
If nothing changes, America has already won.
[OP] DeRpY_CUCUMBER | 12 hours ago
David Petraeus has given multiple interviews now where hes admitted that 15 American military bases in the middle east are no longer useable because of Irans bombing. In his own words, he said the American basing strategy, including these 15 bases, are no longer viable.
American General Barry McCaffery said that the US would have to retreat to Southern Europe and make new arrangements with these countries as that's where the activity will go.
These are American generals admitting Iran has destroyed the US basing strategy in the middle east, and the US will have to move farther away from Iran to be safe.
That is retreating.
As far as America winning, we failed to protect our middle eastern allies. Even as Saudi Arabia is begging for help. We let Israel bomb Qatar that is supposed to be one of our closest allies. And we are now leaving running from our bases.
All while Trump replaced a Khamenei with a Khamenei.
That's not winning, that is a diminished America. That is an America that damn sure can't take on China, because it can't even beat Iran. I would be horrified if I was Taiwan.
scout376 | 12 hours ago
Maybe not fully but had to retreat already from several key bases in the Middle East that Iran bombed.