'Nightmare Scenario' Looms as Global Markets Head for the Biggest Oil Output Disruption in History, Daniel Yergin, vice chair of S&P Global Warns

2746 points by T_Shurt a month ago on reddit | 261 comments

Playingwithmyrod | a month ago

Calls on influencers who make rice, bean, and chicken recipes.

Does anyone know the actual damage done to oil infrastructure over there? Like say the straight was completely opened back up, what the MBPD affect of what has already happened?

Lord_Vesuvius2020 | a month ago

Check out r/oil. There are several good detailed posts about war damage. Spoiler: it’s worse than you think.

Adorable-Database187 | a month ago

Off course there is a sub for oil.

Track_Boss_302 | a month ago

It must be invaded!

SuperSaiyanGod210 | a month ago

The classic formula that has explained American Imperialism post-WW2.

Oil + War + “you have a anti-American leader” = FREEDUMB!!™️🦅🇺🇸 😎

/sarcasm. Or is it?

DepopulationXplosion | a month ago

🤣

Defiant-Feedback8235 | a month ago

It is literally the most important chemical and commodity in the world...why wouldn't there be?

Levitlame | a month ago

I also didn’t know, but seeing it now It’s surprisingly reasonable. Not what I expected at all

Lightzephyrx | a month ago

Very civil and respectable. Not just a buncha righties

solomons-mom | a month ago

https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/s/UrhWLmr0by

I am very glad I read this when there were only 20 or 30 comments. With the hundreds that have come since I would have never made it down to this one.

https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/s/FnmdjjNwlP

Years before before I read Daniel Yergin's book, I had access to Charlie Maxwell's reports.

i-was-way- | a month ago

Look up the recession chef on TT (not sure if he’s on other socials). He’s been saving my vain lately with good, cost effective recipes.

zzoomann | a month ago

I read that it was storage depots that were taken out, but not the production capabilities (drilling / refining)

CyberSmith31337 | a month ago

Boy this Sunday has just been filled with rosy headlines.

I don’t know what we are supposed to do with any of this information. National economic collapse is beyond my pay grade. If government destroys the economy, then the government should be completely dismantled and disbanded.  It feels like everyone knows which way we are going. No one wants to say the quiet part out loud.

That being said, I am fully expecting 401Ks to completely fall apart when this all starts to snowball out of control.

Gimme_The_Loot | a month ago

>I don’t know what we are supposed to do with any of this information.

Maybe just go to the Winchester, have a pint and wait for all this to blow over

CyberSmith31337 | a month ago

Unfortunately the gas will be too expensive to get to Winchester :c

FunkyPlunkett | a month ago

Also have you seen drink prices at a Bar. No thank you

lopix | a month ago

So walk to the corner store, buy a 12 pack, take it home and drink slowly while staring into the middle distance.

FunkyPlunkett | a month ago

What the hell does that have to do with Winchester joke. Also why you so much weird sexual stuff on your profile you know you can hide that. Weird weird fish stuff man.👨

Shemozzlecacophany | a month ago

Lmao

matjoeman | a month ago

Don't kink shame

NoAvocado7971 | a month ago

He has hidden it all now but seriously wtf… that was some kink I’d not thought people capable of. Like seriously… fish? Wtf.

Capt-Crap1corn | a month ago

Wtf did I miss lmao

FunkyPlunkett | a month ago

Captain Fish Fucker u/lopix

lopix | a month ago

BroughtBagLunchSmart | a month ago

> If government destroys the economy, then the government should be completely dismantled and disbanded

The right wing fascist billionaires who are bombing Iran want the government dismantled so they can privatize everything and fuck us over even harder.

CyberSmith31337 | a month ago

The government didn’t have to choose to back that group of people.

We have to stop acting like Congress hasn’t been completely complicit this entire time. They absolutely have.

That is 100% the Project 2025 doctrine, for sure, but the government hasn’t done a single thing to stop it from happening. The reality is that our system has been captured from top to bottom by the oligarchs. If government can’t regulate oligarchs, then what is its function?

Asiriya | a month ago

As long as the dollar is worth something, the oligarchs have more of it than anyone else and can buy their will. Dismantling the government doesn't solve that. You still have a bunch of people that need controlling, and a bunch of rich people that want the control.

stop_touching_that | a month ago

[ Removed by Reddit ]

303uru | a month ago

To your point, I think we are seeing the true end of this form of US government. The legislative branch has sceded power to the executive and the judicial has become a rubber stamp. In many ways I’m surprised we made it this far, any government this reliant on good faith actors following “norms” was doomed to fail.

Ultium | a month ago

No matter how things go these next 3.75 years or where we end up after, this will be the defining lesson learned for all parties involved.

Norms are not laws. The Washington system has become so used to individuals acting the way they are supposed to, and never bothered to codify it because they assumed this would continue forever. Hopefully the next administration will have the unpleasant task of scrambling to patch all the holes we have now learned are there for bad actors to exploit.

ooferomen | a month ago

What about all the clearly illegal stuff they are doing, though? Norms may not be laws but it seems laws are just norms. We can write down as much stuff as we want, but there is just no enforcement.

Reagalan | a month ago

All laws require some sort of buy-in from the populace to enforce them. A ton of us are sick of the bullshit laws (you know the ones) and the hypocrisy and selective enforcement and have adopted a "didn't see it, don't recall" to everything. It's the inconsistency that's ruined it.

It's not dissimilar to how an authoritarian parenting style fosters deception and resentment. It's that but on a society-wide scale.

Sommern | a month ago

>patch holes

That isn’t going to work.

There will never be an improvement until we hold these people accountable. The only reason Trump was even able to start this war in the first place was the refusal to prosecute George Bush and his gang for war crimes of starting a perfidious war of aggression in 2003. The Obama Administration continued the War on Terror and codified the disastrous Patriot Act as a bipartisan precedent. Same with not prosecuting the criminals behind the 2008 financial crisis.

We put kids in prison for slinging dope for 10+ years and yet powerful criminals in the Epstein Class get to plea the 5th, and that’s in the rare instances that charges are filed. Crime is baked into the everyday business of Washington DC and Wall Street.

I don’t think America will course correct barring a full blown political revolution; a complete rethinking of how we interpret the Constitution, total reconstruction of the legal system, and tribunals to set examples for the next generation. The Democrats are fully in support of reverting to the 2015 status quo which led to Trumpism in the first place.

GhostofBeowulf | a month ago

Let me guess you sub to mostly leftist groups and bluesky?

There was no political will to hold GWB to accountant for "war crimes" (something only leftists say) or breaking whatever laws you seem to believe he broke for the 2008 crash, besides about 30% on the far left. Oddly enough, the same amount of diehard trump supporters there were, and very similar to the vote totals Hitler received.

Point being while the fascists will use tricks to convince you their 30% are the loudest biggest and most dangerous (the reason they fail actually, because they cannot accept accurate intel without blowing smoke up their ass) their 30% is about the same size as yours, and counter balance. The majority of people just want to go to work and pay their bills without paying too much or too much interference.

Paul_Gambino | a month ago

What an incredibly enlightened take. I'm sure your centrist position will win out and lead to the best outcome in the end- surely we need to just stay the course.

DazzlingAnimal581 | a month ago

2.75 years.

averysmallbeing | a month ago

A lifetime.

Unkechaug | a month ago

And when you get into the habit of codifying everything, you are creating an absolute nightmare as well as a “if it’s technically legal, it’s fine” as opposed to some vagueness that should be interpreted as with a moral and ethical lens. The world is far too complex to codify every little thing, if that were possible it could be programmed as such. It’s our responsibility as a society to cast out those who behave in an uncivilized manor like this administration is doing.

This is a cultural problem that we need to fix, to begin removing sociopaths and narcissists from the world before they are able to damage society further.

Asiriya | a month ago

That was supposed to be Biden. He didn't win enough, everything got locked up in Congress and Trump faced absolutely no challenge to being elected again.

Ultimately the only thing ensuring a functioning US government is the quality of Democratic candidates and their ability to turn out voters. Or the ability for an incumbent Republican to fuck up.

It feels like the US government has had a precession for decades and is finally too imbalanced. Either Republicans corrupt the elections now or later, but I don't see how this gets undone.

Tricky_Condition_279 | a month ago

I imagine the founders believed that voting was the true correction for bad government--but I don't think they anticipated how quickly things can change 200+ years in the future. 18th Century America could wait 4 years to vote out a tyrant. Now we don't have that kind of time.

Kokkor_hekkus | a month ago

I think the founders probably assumed that hundreds of years in the future we'd update how our government functions, not treat a document meant to set out a prototype of democracy as inviolate holy doctrine.

Lysmerry | a month ago

They couldn’t dream of the tech we have today. They modeled their government on Ancient Greek and Rome and it probably would work in both eras, when they didn’t have to deal with smart phones and AI fakes

DontHaveWares | a month ago

Ben Franklin would go crazy with porn on demand

Pseudanonymius | a month ago

Nah, I dont think that's the problem. I think the founders would never have imagined the people chosing such a wanna-be-dictator a second time.

SnowyBlackberry | a month ago

Any government will have problems if enough of its members stop following laws as written. The problem isn't some norms being violated, the problem is that the majority party in all three branches collectively have decided to ignore the law.

Could more safety mechanisms be put in place? Sure. But if those are ignored too, you're just as screwed.

Omegoa | a month ago

> Any government will have problems if enough of its members stop following laws as written. The problem isn't some norms being violated, the problem is that the majority party in all three branches collectively have decided to ignore the law.

Going further, the people the law breakers represent refuse to hold them accountable. Republican voters have broken the social contract, have for decades. Of course the society comes crashing down when 1/3 of the population is in favor of blatant sedition so long as their team "wins."

HumorAccomplished611 | a month ago

Exactly. known faults since andrew jackson. congress could empower judges to give them an enforcement mechanism like being able to impound certain for uses

zedazeni | a month ago

I generally stray from conspiracy theories, however…

We know Project 2025/the Butterfly Revolution was written largely in secret by a non-governmental organization/group of affluent private individuals

We know Musk, Thiel, and other authors of these clandestine groups are directly involved with this current regime.

We know based on the published works of these groups that their intent is to overthrow the US government and post-War global order and establish a new economic, social, and political order.

That’s 100% the legal definition of a conspiracy. We know all of this to be true. What we don’t know yet is:

1: how long has this been going on

2: how deep does this go/who is involved

Here’s my long take:

The elites have been trying to maintain a proto-fascist state in the USA since its independence. This is exactly what the Confederacy was—it proto-fascist state of the elites establishing an in- and out-group. When they failed to maintain their order, they went to Jim Crowe. They fought tooth and nail against progress. This eventually led to Nixon’s Southern Strategy and the marriage of American proto-fascism with Evangelicalism. From this movement we got individuals such as Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich.

They were going to try this back in the early aughts. They had the 2000 election between Bush and Gore fixed by the SCOTUS. They knew 9/11 was going to happen and planned on using the inevitable economic collapse and expensive war to bankrupt the USA the same way that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan destroyed the USSR. Instead, the world rallied around the USA. They again tried this with 2008, but people had had enough and ended electing Obama.

The new order then decided to go all-in, thereby allowing for the Tea Party to come to fruition. This was when racism and anti-intellectualism became mainstream. When politicians were blatantly racist against Obama (remember, Trump’s role with the so-called birther movement). The GOP’s official policy during Obama’s presidency was to try to force the government to come to a halt.

Finally, they wanted to test the waters—see if America was socially ready for the Revolution. They needed the dumbest, most incendiary person they could find—Trump. He was hated among the elites. He was a laughing stock. He was “in” in their organization, but still despised as a narcissist, crook, liar, etc…someone that they could manipulate and easily live without when his time was over.

They let him run in 2016 as a test-run. I don’t know if COVID was a planned event, or if was truly just a natural virus (perhaps they wanted to use the pandemic to turn the masses against scientists and intellectualism once and for all, perhaps they intentionally unleashed it to again try to crash the global economy…). Nevertheless, they tested the waters. Now, in 2024 with Trump re-elected, they know that the MAGA base has fully embraced fascism, anti-intellectualism, and will ignore reality in the most Orwellian manner. It’s go-time.

That is my conspiracy theory in the conventional definition.

DontHaveWares | a month ago

You mean let him run in 2016 as a test run

zedazeni | a month ago

Indeed. Thanks for the catch.

actuallyapossom | a month ago

3 years ago I felt completely differently about the possibility of retirement and the value of my meager capital.

Too many things have become plausible to trust the money I have. It's a very ugly foreseeable future, even if it doesn't become catastrophic.

CyberSmith31337 | a month ago

I also was pretty sure I would be retiring a few years ago. Now, I just cannot picture it. Industries are falling apart, the government is completely useless, runaway inflation is outpacing everything.

To be honest, I expect my currency itself to become useless before I am 65.

saiboule | a month ago

Suddenly socialism doesn’t look so bad? Maybe we all should have been taking care of each other this whole time

kvk1990 | a month ago

There is something satisfying about the Republican Party self-immolating in slow motion, though. If only it didn’t burn the rest of us, too.

ReserveFormal3910 | a month ago

And they will probably lose the house, but keep the senate and face no real repercussion.

kvk1990 | a month ago

I thought the same thing, but I do think Iowa, Maine and North Carolina are likely to flip. I’m not as bullish on Texas, but Iowa, Maine and NC puts the Democrats within striking distance. They would need to flip one more. Alaska and Ohio are going to be closer than most people think.

If Trump puts boots on the ground in Iran and the casualties mount, the economy heads into recession, and inflation goes up over 3% (all likely scenarios at this point), then the Republicans will lose the House to a sizable Democratic majority, and in the Senate, lose Maine, Iowa and NC for sure, probably Alaska and Ohio, might even lose Texas, and possibly even another state like Nebraska or Montana. That sets up a political wipeout in ‘28, where the Dems could possibly flirt with a supermajority in the Senate like in ‘08.

CardiologistPrize712 | a month ago

If things get any worse I could imagine Democrats putting up Reagan numbers

AndyTheSane | a month ago

We were test driving electric cars today..

Comfortable-Web9763 | a month ago

Too bad that $7500 tax credits gone. Only missed it by 67 days

ihavenoidea12345678 | a month ago

Bought a used EV last year. Works great as a commuter to work and back.

Comfortable-Web9763 | a month ago

Subaru really stepped up their EV game this year. Converted the Legacy plant in Indiana to an all EV plant. Im thinking my next cars gonna be one and then I can kiss the oil companies goodbye

Pleasant_Studio9690 | a month ago

Same. It's a great little runabout/commuter.

AndyTheSane | a month ago

I'm in the UK .. I can get a decent electric runaround for around £10k second hand.

No_Zombie2021 | a month ago

Check out the Inoniq 5

mahnkee | a month ago

EV prices dropped $7500 after the tax credit went away. The manufacturers were always the beneficiary of that policy, not consumers.

GreenTrees797 | a month ago

No they didn’t

mahnkee | a month ago

Yes, they did. Some of em, anyways, depending on how supply constrained production was.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a68157139/2026-hyundai-ioniq-5-pricing/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2025/10/07/tesla-unveils-cheaper-model-y-and-model-3-countering-tax-credit-loss/

GreenTrees797 | a month ago

It ended in September

SurinamPam | a month ago

Used EVs are an amazing bargain… right now.

If you’re thinking about it, make a decision before the demand pushes prices up.

Top-Acadia-1936 | a month ago

Once again we hear, “hurry up” “buy now” or “be priced out!”

We didn’t used to live this way.  Major, expensive purchases weren’t rushed on the population using fear, a noose constructed of inflation, or a guillotine of “AI”.

Folks, be ok with remaining still.  calm.

Lysmerry | a month ago

The ‘you will be the permanent underclass if you don’t learn AI and start scamming seniors STAT’ is the worst of it

Unkechaug | a month ago

The amount of FOMO since COVID has been ridiculous. It will change again during the next downturn, when people don’t have the means to “buy now” even if they wanted to.

Top-Acadia-1936 | a month ago

I guess that’s sadly what’s needed at this point.

Too much “wealth” was distributed post Covid.  Investments made it multiply.  Spending fueled  inflation.

It all just pisses me off.

_aliased | a month ago

this tie is different.... because inflation is going crazy. fed better not drop rates this year, or that national debt going to have credit agencies drop US rating, which precedes a major usd selloff.

hondashadowguy2000 | a month ago

Those who have the luxury to drop $15k+ on a used EV, and have the necessary infrastructure in their local area to make EVs feasible, good for you. Everybody else has to suffer

CoffieQueens | a month ago

It doesn’t seem like you can get any decent used car for under 15k anyway, so cars are a luxury now.

MassiveBoner911_3 | a month ago

How is it that every single fucking time I turn around its back to work Monday, and my weekends are filled with insane news like what OP posted.

svrtngr | a month ago

Could be why it feels like the current administration and the oligarchs are looting everything on the way out.

CyberSmith31337 | a month ago

In corporate raids, I’ve heard lawyers describe this as the equivalent of ”robbing the house while it is on fire” because everyone is so busy talking about the building being burned down that they don’t even pay attention to the looters. Feels like it to me, too.

tachyonvelocity | a month ago

Crude oil prices up +30% in 1 day, you can only laugh in disbelief, gasoline prices will literally jump 30% tomorrow, after jumping 30% the last few weeks. The ripple effect will be huge, since everything needs to be transported, expect almost all goods to jump in price. It's not just oil either, the Gulf is a huge source of fertilizer and natural gas, expect a food price jump, expect energy prices to jump for almost everyone in the world. Since Asia the exporter uses a lot of natural gas for production, expect all import prices to jump on top of the tariff price.

Thank you for electing the affordability president. Thank you for not choosing the Democrats because you thought inflation was too high. What an absolute disaster the US is. Open a fcking economics textbook before voting and spare us the suffering please.

Canuck-overseas | a month ago

You will drive less. Shit will become more expensive. Life will go on.

big-papito | a month ago

But at least we don't have to listen to HER LAUGH.

HumorAccomplished611 | a month ago

The 10 million dead africans dont have that choice

Infinite-Pomelo-7538 | a month ago

So.. if 20% of world's oil is gone by blocking Hormuz. Oil should be about 20% more expensive. What am I missing that it's already ~~40%~~ 100% more expensive?

tachyonvelocity | a month ago

It was $55 in December, it's $110 now. Good job Trump voters. This has been an inflation shock worse than almost any time in history,

Infinite-Pomelo-7538 | a month ago

Just saw futures opening 15% up from Friday. Hilarious. When will the US finally get rid of that fat fuck? Does nobody in the US have any spine anymore?

Pleasant_Studio9690 | a month ago

The Christofascists have their hands on all the levers of power, so to answer your question, no. We're basically living under a takeover by the ghost of the Civil War Confederacy. As long as Trump hunts down trans people, gay people, and brown people, that's all they care about.

jammy-git | a month ago

Wait, so you're saying that Trump just took control of a whole country's oil reserves (most of which was sold on black markets or indiscreet ways to the likes of India, Iran and Russia), then invaded another oil-producing country, doubling the price of that oil overnight, and now Trump could make a fortune selling that invaded country's oil and pocketing the money?

warren2345 | a month ago

What you are missing is that supply and demand curves are not linear. When there is abundant supply, producers are forced to compete on price. When there is very limited supply, folks with money end up bidding each other up

solomons-mom | a month ago

The price will go up by a much greater percent than the percent of the shortfall --- I think it was Charlie Maxwell (the Daniel Yergin of the '70s) who said a 2% shortfall could cause a 20% rise because some people/governmemts will.pay whatever is needed to get what they need.

DeliciousPangolin | a month ago

Imagine I have ten units of thing you absolutely need to live. There's another guy that also has ten units. There are fifteen of you. Now I shoot the other guy. Five of you aren't getting shit, and the other ten are going to have to empty their wallets before I decide what the price is.

dalyons | a month ago

The entire field of economics?

Infinite-Pomelo-7538 | a month ago

Great explanation!

dalyons | a month ago

Look I didn’t expect to have to explain marginal pricing on the economics subreddit

warblingContinues | a month ago

Well this is what voters wanted.  Voters have a chance in Nov to say otherwise.

FlyEaglesFly536 | a month ago

While i am a never trumper, i know that he will either cancel the election, somehow get a third term that only he can have, or both. This is exactly what his voters wanted, and unfortunately we are going to suffer the consequences.

CyberSmith31337 | a month ago

People keep saying that, but honestly, I don’t even think the Democrats have a platform.

Honest question for you; what is the Democrats platform for 2026? I’m pretty sure it’s just ”Not them.”

ThisUsernameIsTook | a month ago

Which right now is sufficient for me. I would really like to at least hear concepts of a plan from Dem leadership however.

Famous_Owl_840 | a month ago

The stuff screwing the world economy would have occurred no matter which party was in office. Domestic policy is not causing this. Further, trumps domestic policy is only slightly different than kamalas would have been.

The foreign policy would be exactly the same because our government is occupied by a foreign power and serves foreign interests.

Asiriya | a month ago

No, this is just Trumpist cope. There's 0 chance Harris would have declared war on Iran. She's not nearly as corru[t and exposed as Trump, whichever lever is being used against him (blackmail, war spoils, dementia) wouldn't have existed for Harris, and she'd have a competent team that would have advised her against this.

Tier0001 | a month ago

This is like people getting mad at Kamala for saying nothing will fundamentally change. "Nothing will fundamentally change" would have been so much better than this whole shit show, and it's not even close. The bar at this point is under ground, and even just being on the ground should be enough. If this is gonna be another "the Democrats didn't promise the world so may as well sit out" situation, then everyone better just give up on the country and elections now and accept Trump as the dictator and let them do whatever they want.

CyberSmith31337 | a month ago

I didn’t ask for the world.

I asked for a platform. The fact that this hyperbolic garbage continues to be the defensive counterpoint for, quite literally the lowest bar possible, is ridiculous.

If the entire party can’t fucking find something to rally around and behind after this administration, then they will lose again, and just like last time, it won’t be the voters’ fault; it will be the Democrats fault for literally failing to provide the most basic platform imaginable. That isn’t asking for the world; it is expecting that they can adapt and learn why they lost 2024 in the first place.

There is such a wide plethora of options. They can literally pick anything. Healthcare. Student loan forgiveness. Raising the minimum wage. Expanding social security. Taxing the oligarchy effectively. Breaking up monopolies. Like, pick literally ANY OF THEM and start getting the chants going ffs.

Tier0001 | a month ago

> There is such a wide plethora of options. They can literally pick anything. Healthcare. Student loan forgiveness. Raising the minimum wage. Expanding social security. Taxing the oligarchy effectively. Breaking up monopolies. Like, pick literally ANY OF THEM and start getting the chants going ffs.

Oh you mean the very stuff they've been campaigning on for years now? Which got them fucking nowhere and the voters still decided to sit out anyway and give power to a wannabe dictator instead? Twice! Yeah amazing. The same dictator wannabe who has been dismantling the US for the last year, and started a needless war in the middle east with no plan or anything.

> Student loan forgiveness.

This one is especially hilarious because Biden tried that, Republicans blocked it every step of the way, and then the voters blamed Biden for not fulfilling his campaign promises. But but but THE PLATFORM! WHERE IS THE PLATFORM!!??

And then people like you wonder why the Democrats aren't trying hard enough, and it's because the American people appear to genuinely be fucking stupid. Like mind numbingly fucking dumb.

The only thing they can hope to accomplish at this point is to be an obstacle for Trump's agenda to try and keep the US out of a death spiral, and all because the voters have let this whole thing erode so far there aren't many more options. And yet you still expect them to promise this and that as if any of that can be done. All the stuff you listed? Yeah, the ship has sailed for all of them, at least for the next decade. It will take at least 2 sane governments back to back just to fix all this and right the ship, let alone getting fucking healthcare. But since the American people are fucking stupid, they'll just blame the first sane government for not fixing everything fast enough and elect another Trump to destroy it all again.

*And you block me. Fucking idiot.

ReserveFormal3910 | a month ago

https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/FINAL-MASTER-PLATFORM.pdf

Here was the 2024 platform was it just not them?

sxales | a month ago

> I don’t know what we are supposed to do with any of this information

Take to the streets, usually.

hollow-fox | a month ago

The eruption of the Russia–Ukraine war and the subsequent US energy sanctions imposed on Russia have resulted in a significant surge in crude oil prices. On March 7, 2022, the WTI crude oil futures price touched $133.460/barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures price reached $139.130/barrel, the highest price since July 2008.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-023-02526-9

So is this article just a lie for clicks.

artisanrox | a month ago

> I don’t know what we are supposed to do with any of this information.

Stock up your pantries. Everyone who has the storage room for supplies should be doing this. I just spent half a grand at Costco for that exact reason.

Top-Acadia-1936 | a month ago

But, those same 401k’s, which most don’t even look at until end of quarter, can be all “padded back up” with one or two days of fantastic booming numbers.

We’ve been doing all this for a few years now, without fail.  One gangbusters up month, one month of floating along, one terrifying down month.  Nearly quarter.

When the statement hits the account holder, all looks “well”.

“Book the fantastic trip!”  “Spend your hard earned money!”   “Scared money don’t make money!”

And we continue on.

dabroh | a month ago

The Democrats that voted not to stop the president's war powers...what a bunch of c()nts.

GWS2004 | a month ago

Yeah, this is ALL the Democrats fault. /s

The GOP loves people like you. It's what keeps them in office.

bammerburn | a month ago

I mean, ping pong signs.

ZeeBeeblebrox | a month ago

So...Fetterman, that's literally the only one.

Akira282 | a month ago

It's already begun. I don't think anyone's 401k has done much this year.

Trakeen | a month ago

My all world index was doing pretty good (crazy good last year) but i think that party is over for a while

big-papito | a month ago

If you are in SPY, that is, but everything is about to take a beating. I am thinking I am going to load up on reverse SPY ETF and see what happens. If this blows over, not much downside, but if shit goes downhill, at least I will stay even.

NoAvocado7971 | a month ago

Is tha YPS?

big-papito | a month ago

SDS, SPXS if you really came to play or short on cash.

This-is-obsurd | a month ago

Isn’t the only thing holding America together 401ks?

tachyonvelocity | a month ago

Oil prices are up 20% to $110 right now, the government is destroying the economy as we speak, maybe start thinking about completely dismantling the current government then.

Rude_Mirror7441 | a month ago

We’re in the bubble of all bubbles right now. 401k’s will get blown up eventually regardless of what’s going on.

Ill-Bullfrog-5360 | a month ago

Naw those oldies in congress need it

SuperSaiyanGod210 | a month ago

And unfortunately, it’s going to take 401Ks collapsing for people to MAYBE realize him being in power is not in the best of interest for literally anyone

StackIsMyCrack | a month ago

Well, since you mentioned your 401k, maybe rebalance your 401k to mostly cash and wait it out. Maybe an energy fund or something for now, depending on what they offer.

Preeng | a month ago

>If government destroys the economy, then the government should be completely dismantled and disbanded.

"If things get horrible, we should make it even worse."

Fucking genius. How about just looking at who is causing this mess and punishing those people?

CyberSmith31337 | a month ago

Because that is an idealistic, stupid take. Have you been paying attention, at all, to 2026?

Has anyone, anywhere, responsible for any of this been held accountable in any way? Anyone go to jail for the Epstein files? Any senators arrested for insider trading? Any oligarchs been arrested for bribing Congress?

The whole fucking system is rotten. Citizens United made sure of that.

NoAvocado7971 | a month ago

Prince Andrew has been arrested

Preeng | a month ago

>Because that is an idealistic, stupid take.

Burning it all down and starting over has NEVER been better than fixing what you have. Idealistic take? Look in the fucking mirror.

CyberSmith31337 | a month ago

Right. Revolution has literally never worked in history. Not once.

Done wasting my time talking to your stupid ass.

Asiriya | a month ago

You're welcome to a revolution, just remember they're often followed by things like "the Terror" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reign_of_Terror

eufemiapiccio77 | a month ago

It’s all noise. Ships have restarted transiting the straits.

Magellan092 | a month ago

Would love a source on that one, only Iranian and Russian shadow vessels are crossing currently.

bautofdi | a month ago

wtf are you talking about. A tug boat was destroyed today.

Even if ships are transiting, what they’re paying the crew and for insurance costs will still cause prices to skyrocket

Upstairs_Baby8424 | a month ago

> While other analysts have warned that oil could hit $100 a barrel with the Strait of Hormuz closed, markets aren’t there yet. On Friday, Brent crude settled at $92.69 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate ended at $90.90.

We are like 2 days away from this being a reality. The article acts like it’s some spooky prediction that may not actually happen.

gtrocks555 | a month ago

Right. Beginning of the month Crude was right around $70 and ended this week a little over 90. 100 is a given at this point.

datums | a month ago

Oil doesn't trade from Friday night to Sunday night at 6pm eastern, 23 minutes ago.

WTI and Brent are both at $109.

Solid_Owl | a month ago

Other posters in other subs are freaking about $200 oil. What once seemed preposterous now sounds like possible hyperbole.

bobbo6969- | a month ago

If we don’t TACO Iran is going to end up attacking the oil fields and desalination plants in our gulf allied states. That will get us to $200 pretty quick.

At that point the next step is a massive recession triggered by the gulf states unwinding their US equity positions in order to pay to arm themselves against the Iranian attacks. Not to mention.. you know, drinking water, which they kindof need.

Then there’s the loss of the petrodollar if that happens.

Trump kindof HAS to TACO. The consequences of not stopping asap are all unthinkably severe.

I guess he could nuke them, but an irradiated strait of Hormuz also seems really bad…

justaguywithadream | a month ago

Trump doesn't have to TACO. He's at his end, he knows it, and he doesn't care about anybody or anything besides himself.

The real question is will the GOP accept this and force him to or be impeached? (No)

Cybertronian10 | a month ago

> I guess he could nuke them, but an irradiated strait of Hormuz also seems really bad

I am starting to think that he will actually do it.

bobbo6969- | a month ago

It’s not off the table. The bets are happening on the prediction markets which we know insiders like to place bets on using insider information.

It’s quite scary, because idk another way we can ‘win’. He said he wants “unconditional surrender”, that’s flat out not going to happen. Iran is huge and they have been preparing for this for decades. This is exactly what the hardliners have been saying the US would do, so they are now vindicated and will be the ones who people follow.

What are they going to do, start the draft again and throw hundreds of thousands of American teenagers into a Vietnam-esq meat grinder and expect not to face massive civil unrest at home?

So if winning on the ground is out… winning from the air has never been a thing anywhere ever… and a protracted ground/air campaign results in Iran destroying the global economy and the petrodollar…

TACO or nuke seems like the options on the table.

We’re already fucked though. Just wait until the loan wolf terrorist attacks start on the west. We just killed their version of the pope while our “department of war” publicly called it a holy war.

It’s like they are trying to get Americans killed at home.

bmyst70 | a month ago

That vile orange POS literally is willing to set the world on fire to save himself.

SoulShatter | a month ago

I pretty much lost faith that the US actually has a redline on what Trump is allowed to do, but if anything sending nukes should be an instant impeach/removal. The geopolitical ramifications of using a nuke are horrific.

It's one of the absolute taboos of the world. Breaking that is opening pandoras box

Omegoa | a month ago

> if anything sending nukes should be an instant impeach/removal.

It won't be, Republicans are death cultist lunatics who are mad the Rapture didn't happen and are now trying to start it themselves.

TheFatJesus | a month ago

The guy has been so desperate to use a nuke that he was suggesting nuking hurricanes. There's no way he isn't planning on nuking Iran.

keytiri | a month ago

Orange Hitler is too dumb to TACO, he’s going to put boots on the ground in Iran.

itsANOMALEEZ | a month ago

He would put boots on the ground AND then nuke it just to distract everyone from the fact he raped children

Asiriya | a month ago

Very CoD4. What's old is new again

austinwiltshire | a month ago

Enemy gets a vote. Frankly, most of the success conditions the US could claim have already been done. Iran has little to lose by continuing. They can embarrass us air defense ineptitude around drones, they can extort their neighbors, they can work with Russia to kill Americans.

I don't know what to tell people but America's weakness in virtually every war in the last 75 years is tunnel systems. Our ability to continue to damage them is very low.

Sommern | a month ago

We bombed North Vietnam for years, killed hundreds of thousands, and they never surrendered. If anything they got stronger by Chinese and Soviet assistance and got better at shooting down planes (Iran already gets intelligence and possibly material aid from RU and CN). But the point is, bombing didn’t work. Without the threat of a ground invasion, the enemy can endure strategic bombing as long as the population maintains its will to fight.

America is going to lose.

Sommern | a month ago

He can’t TACO, the Iranians are at the drivers seat in this one. They refuse to meet with the American negotiators because we killed their Supreme Leader DURING negotiations. Trump could say tomorrow that the war is over and the Iranians will say “fuck you!” continue pounding bases and oil infrastructure until they decide to end it.

People keep forgetting that we murdered their head of state and spiritual Shia leader in a completely unprovoked attack. Imagine the Japanese, instead of attacking Pear Harbor, steamed the Kido Butai off Chesapeake Bay and bombed the White House killing FDR, his staff, and his entire family, and then bombed the Capitol Building and the Supreme Court, and bombed a school killing children.

They are not going to negotiate, period. Not unless the Americans decide to acquiesce to something radical like withdrawing from all their Middle Eastern bases. At the very lease, they need assurances that the Americans and Israel will not just attack them in the next 6 months like they did after last June of 2025. I don’t think people understand the gravity of how bad Trump fucked up by not only killing the Supreme Leader, but over 100 school girls in a sneak attack during diplomatic negotiations.

Back_at_it_agains | a month ago

Honestly, as they should.

A lot of folks will cry fowl and say this proves that they are evil, but when the U.S. is blowing up schools, attacking things needed for people to survive (hospitals, desalination plants, etc.), and making comments about Iran being annihilated, then the country is going to feel backed into a corner and will need to lash out in asymmetrical and unorthodox ways.

Remember, Iran didn’t start this war. The U.S. and Israel did.

Solid_Owl | a month ago

I want to believe that Trump would do the sane thing and pull back instead of doubling-down to prove strength, or that Iran would let this go as an "oopsie". Israel also seems unlikely to just stop.

MassiveBoner911_3 | a month ago

The American congress must act NOW or its all about to crash and burn.

Maxpowr9 | a month ago

And all those US companies being bankrolled by Gulf countries, especially SA; will find themselves in precarious situations. They'll find out how broke so much of the US actually is.

bk7f2 | a month ago

> I guess he could nuke them, but an irradiated strait of Hormuz also seems really bad…

Using nukes in this specific situation is like opening Pandora's box.

bobbo6969- | a month ago

Being in this situation is already Pandora’s box.

France is talking about building more nukes.

Poland is talking about building nukes for themselves.

South Korea and Japan are getting in on the fun too.

The cat’s already out of the bag. All we have to find out now is if this is really really bad for the world, super fucking bad, or balls to the wall apocalyptic.

I guess it’s great for China, but I’m American so I consider that to be really really bad.

StreetAssignment5494 | a month ago

Taco…bell?

bobbo6969- | a month ago

Not sure if this is a serious question. But in case it is…

TrumpAlwaysChickensOut - it’s what wall st. traders called the trade where you wait for Trump to come out with some policy that would destroy the world, markets panic, they buy the dip, then Trump reverses course.

StreetAssignment5494 | a month ago

It was haha. Thanks

lopix | a month ago

Oil was $155bbl what? Like 20 years ago now. Sorry, $124 in 2008. Which is just over $187 in today USD.

Solid_Owl | a month ago

I'm with you in believing it's not the end of the world. We've seen expensive oil before, and that's not so bad. It will constrain the economy a little, that's true, but it's no $20/gallon. And if it was, that would certainly re-light that "energy independence" fire.

baverdi | a month ago

Cruse oil was 35 in 2008

loftbrd | a month ago

May it hit 127, and by December dropped to 41.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

alotofironsinthefire | a month ago

Qatar is now saying 150 is absolutely a possibility. Which translates to what $6-750 a gallon at the pump?

illini81 | a month ago

We could be there by the end of March, or even the end of next week.

MassiveBoner911_3 | a month ago

Bro refresh your news feed and RIP. Oil is at 106$ and climbing fast.

PropDrops | a month ago

Just hit $100 lmao (I hate my life)

Edit: And keeps going up :)

Substantial__Unit | a month ago

I fucking hate this kind of reporting.

XLauncher | a month ago

100 dollars a barrel used to be the nightmare figure quoted in my fiction reading as a kid, the general short hand for "the world economy has gone to shit."

This was a while ago of course, an inflation has done more work than anything else to make that figure a coming reality, but it still hits me a type of way.

AllTearGasNoBreaks | a month ago

Oil hit 145 in 2008, hovered around 100 in the early 2010s. This isn't new really

SoulShatter | a month ago

It hit 115 back in the middle of 2022 following Russias invasion. Basically fat inflation is back on the menu

XLauncher | a month ago

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I was a kid...a while ago, so what I'm saying is that it's interesting to me that something presented to me as a doomsday scenario is a thing that just happens now.

Malarazz | a month ago

Oil hit $40 a barrel in the infamous oil crisis of the 70s, which when adjusted for today's dollars would be something like $150.

But the world was a lot less prepared for it back then. That event made the US create the strategic oil reserve, for example.

warblingContinues | a month ago

Oil was $100 a barrell after 9/11.

illini81 | a month ago

Oh, we're very much there. Futures opened at $110. One in five barrels of oil that go all around the globe have been halted with no replacement and no end in sight.

Only-Comb-6283 | a month ago

It in fact didn’t even take this long 😔

DatzQuickMaths | a month ago

We are now at $100!

5upertaco | a month ago

And we drive EVs :)

The_Lost_Jedi | a month ago

I'm feeling very very glad about having gotten an EV, now.

rbart4506 | a month ago

Your food isn't farmed or delivered by an EV....

OddlyFactual1512 | a month ago

... yet

waldorflover69 | a month ago

Also data centers will be happy to pass those elctricity costs on

Alarming_Lock_1387 | a month ago

Hopefully they have solar power or wind powering their electricity too

User-no-relation | a month ago

It's Trump. For all we know he'll declare victory tomorrow morning and the straight will be open again

rks404 | a month ago

Impossible, one has to assume that the greatest president in history and his team of intellectual heavyweights freed from the chains of DEI and political correctness would understand second order effects.

reddit_user13 | a month ago

There must be a secret pocket of woke agents jacking up oil prices…

NotPaidByTrump | a month ago

Thanks Obama!

PlanetCosmoX | a month ago

As a sociopath you can always trust that Trump will throw everyone else under the bus before he gets run over.

Which means, that if this turns into an issue, Trump won’t be taco’ing, he’ll be putting boots on the ground and ensuring a safe passage for ships through the Hormuz strait.

He’ll also do this because suddenly the war is a real war, and never in American history has the “Commander in Chief” lost an election during a war. So he’ll be doing this in order to bring his majority through midterms. This is his ace in the hole card. Everything is going as predicted because NONE of this is hard to predict.

So to everyone else on this board. Relax

OddlyFactual1512 | a month ago

The US has never been in a war as unpopular as this one.

FunkyHedonist | a month ago

Truth! Iran war is polling at 44%. This is less popular than Vietnam at the end of Vietnam, after all the drafts and bodies. This war could easily drop to 20% popularity. The beginning of the war is normally the high point for a war's popularity.

TwoCentsShort | a month ago

Plus Johnson had the good sense not to run for another term.

Robdd123 | a month ago

The Republicans were already in for a blue tsunami during the midterms, boots on the ground and Americans coming back dead will make it worse for them, not better. This easily could be the exception to the President never losing an election during a war; nobody outside of the cult wants this war and even some of them will come around when they wake up to gas being 10 dollars a gallon at the pump.

Either way this is just another chip in the quickly eroding "America First" farce he peddles; his only hope is if Iran surrenders or has a regime change but they simply aren't going to do that. If he really wanted a regime change the time to strike was months ago when the people were trying to fight back.

Thick-Cover8761 | a month ago

America First  ???  ... or Israel First.

helluvastorm | a month ago

Or he might get bored claim victory and pull Al the US assets to Cuba for his next shiney thing. We simply can’t predict anything anymore.

I remember over a hundred dollars a barrel oil. We got through it. Wasn’t fun but we did survive. Stayed home a lot . Entertainment was cards with neighbors BBQs movies at home ect.

transmedium_human | a month ago

> and never in American history has the “Commander in Chief” lost an election during a war.

There's always time for a first.

sweetequuscaballus | a month ago

Setting the world on fire, crashing the markets and economy, all to protect Orange One from having us collectively face that he r-ped 12 year old girls, and likely participated in killing them and eliminating their bodies. That is the kind of colossally inverted priorities that mark the end of 1,000 year eras in history.

The importance of shutting down the flow of 20% of oil to the world is thoroughly understated. Historians of the future will wonder at how we could be so stupendously asleep at the wheel.

Apparently, death cults actively supported by an abdicated Congress and Judiciary make for bad governance.

Top-Acadia-1936 | a month ago

You all know the AI-enabled, algorithmic trading market participants literally feed off our doom and gloom postings here on Reddit, other places, right?

Almost too easy to expect oil to dump overnight and into tomorrow, and have a 1-2% up day in equities.

OddlyFactual1512 | a month ago

DJIA & S&P500 futures are down ~2%

jrobbio | a month ago

But is the DOW over 50k?

Frank_Von_Tittyfuck | a month ago

aged like milk

Top-Acadia-1936 | a month ago

Futes are fake, like always.  Still waiting on that Sunday night announcement from someone in DC.

OddlyFactual1512 | a month ago

LMAO. The futures market is MASSIVE and very real. Take your red hat off. It's disrupting the logic centers in your brain. That is something you can ill afford.

Frank_Von_Tittyfuck | a month ago

lol they hated you because you were right

NoAvocado7971 | a month ago

Wow. I just checked your post history. That is some pretty freaky cuckold stuff. You know that there’s a setting to hide that now right? You can adjust it so people looking at your account don’t see all those posts.

Top-Acadia-1936 | a month ago

wtf are you on about, mate?  Looking at your own profile or something?

Anyway….

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins | a month ago

Of course now you set your post history to private

averysmallbeing | a month ago

You can still search it, commenting to return to.

Top-Acadia-1936 | a month ago

I didn’t set anything, dickwithears.

Why are you coming here to Reddit to bag on me personally?  Could it be that I’ve struck a nerve?  Maybe over-leveraged in your investments?  Paid a bit too much for a home?  Feeling like you jumped on the FOMO train a tad too hasty?

Enjoy. You invested in “forever up”.  It doesn’t work like that.

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins | a month ago

What are you even talking about? I wrote nothing related to anything you just word-vomited.

Psychological-Map441 | a month ago

The US produces more oil than it requires annually.

The US population will be able to get to work it would appear, but will pay the new international price.

However, affordability of domestically produced products and imports will be an even bigger financial issue i suspect.

America IS starting to feel great again I'm sure, just not for those who don't own oil stocks.

Decent-District-1459 | a month ago

Ok. And? How does this affect me? Life is pretty messed up now anyways.

Guess I'll join the Nomads when we all start traveling in our SUVs and motor homes eeking out a living.

DrJaneGoodallsChimp | a month ago

You can’t afford the gas.