Yes, I don't like Bill Gates either. I do agree with what he is saying here.
His warning is a striking shift from three years ago, when he wrote that the coming “bumpy” AI job disruption would lead to a “manageable” transition and that the technology would help people work efficiently. Now, he says it will wreak economic catastrophe, with “far fewer” jobs than exist today, thanks to the speed of AI’s advancements and what he calls a non-existent response from government and tech leaders.
“I am in a state of shock that I’m sort of the first one saying, ‘This is crazy. This is insane,’” he said. “I’m just deafened by the silence.”
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Gates said it isn’t the speed of the revolution that worries him. It’s the breadth. “There isn’t a job that isn’t affected,” he said, predicting that, in the majority of occupations, humans will eventually be “vastly inferior to the AI doing the job.”
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The private sector, too, is ill-equipped to handle the problem on its own, Gates argued. Model builders are “not policy people,” he said, and have “a little bit of a bias against talking about the potential negatives of their products.” “The response can’t be, ‘Hey industry, you solve this,’” he said.
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Gates brushed aside the idea that his suggestions might draw pushback from the accelerationist voices in the tech industry. He said he has no financial reason to hold back. Ultimately, his pushback to the “accelerate at all costs” ethos is that not every problem caused by AI will be magically solved by the free market. Sometimes, inefficiency plays a role in capitalism.
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“The goal of humanity is not economic optimization,” he says.
The private sector, too, is ill-equipped to handle the problem on its own, Gates argued.
All part of the plan. they want to recklessly increase profits until it can't and leave society to clean the train wreck.
The goal of humanity is not economic optimization
No, but the goal of business leaders is. And they pretty much bought out the country. So how do we fix that? Maybe by admitting that capitalism isn't the best economic model ever, as a start?
I agree with some of the things being said; however, I'm sick of billionaires telling people what is best for society. Even if it's one of the marginally less problematic billionaires. A billionaire's wealth represents their ability to step on the neck of their fellow humans and vampirically extract money from them. It does not represent their expertise in government, economics, or AI.
I think posting an article to his own website is fine. Anyone can do that.
I skimmed it and I didn't think he was saying anything new. Other people have made similar predictions, but nobody really knows. I didn't see any evidence that I thought was interesting, so I didn't reshare.
But apparently someone else thought it was worth writing a "celebrity has an opinion" story, and someone shared it here, so here we are.
I saw it too many times, when politic or top manager retires they usually become populistic opponents of the same thing they implemented before. Of course, this is not exact case in this case, but... billioner is billioner. It's practically impossible to become billioner fairly.
From, like, a regulatory capture angle? I'm not sure I'm following.
The proposal in his blog post seems meaningfully different to me. It isn't one that's aimed at a slowdown or a pause:
If someone had a credible plan for slowing down AI advances globally, I would likely support it. However, I don’t think that’s going to happen. The geopolitical and economic incentives are pushing too hard to go full speed ahead.
I think his plan is a little too fluffy personally, certainly not something that's going to let Microsoft catapult anyone.
[OP] streblo | 12 hours ago
Yes, I don't like Bill Gates either. I do agree with what he is saying here.
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raze2012 | 12 hours ago
All part of the plan. they want to recklessly increase profits until it can't and leave society to clean the train wreck.
No, but the goal of business leaders is. And they pretty much bought out the country. So how do we fix that? Maybe by admitting that capitalism isn't the best economic model ever, as a start?
Probably not.
screamname | 11 hours ago
I agree with some of the things being said; however, I'm sick of billionaires telling people what is best for society. Even if it's one of the marginally less problematic billionaires. A billionaire's wealth represents their ability to step on the neck of their fellow humans and vampirically extract money from them. It does not represent their expertise in government, economics, or AI.
skybrian | 10 hours ago
I think posting an article to his own website is fine. Anyone can do that.
I skimmed it and I didn't think he was saying anything new. Other people have made similar predictions, but nobody really knows. I didn't see any evidence that I thought was interesting, so I didn't reshare.
But apparently someone else thought it was worth writing a "celebrity has an opinion" story, and someone shared it here, so here we are.
[OP] streblo | 10 hours ago
I agree that billionaires both have too much influence and in this case it’s more that media/society/me choose to read/write/share on the topic.
FWIW I shared it because I think it’s interesting that someone with presumably far greater access than most is saying/believing this.
skybrian | 10 hours ago
Yeah, fair enough. I think it's fairly inevitable that we're going to talk about articles like this one, in part because of who wrote it.
kingofsnake | 10 hours ago
Agreed, and while I'd defer to Bill over plenty of other billionnaires out there, I'm tired of the pedestal we put these people on.
Deely | 9 hours ago
I saw it too many times, when politic or top manager retires they usually become populistic opponents of the same thing they implemented before. Of course, this is not exact case in this case, but... billioner is billioner. It's practically impossible to become billioner fairly.
snake_case | 9 hours ago
This cant possibly be cause copilot sucks, nah
[OP] streblo | 8 hours ago
In what way do you think they would be connected?
I don't really see how the proposed solutions he is arguing for help copilot at all. A token tax would actively harm it.
snake_case | 5 hours ago
I mean that if Copilot didn't suck, he'd be keeping his whole mouth shut about all of this.
[OP] streblo | an hour ago
From, like, a regulatory capture angle? I'm not sure I'm following.
The proposal in his blog post seems meaningfully different to me. It isn't one that's aimed at a slowdown or a pause:
I think his plan is a little too fluffy personally, certainly not something that's going to let Microsoft catapult anyone.