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Trade between Brazil and China in 2025 was $171 billion.
Trade between US and Brazil during that same year was 25% of that. And today Trump announced that it was putting 25% additional tariffs on Brazilian products.
It’d be similar to the Ukraine war in which any power that is interested in taking the US down a peg wouldn’t directly intervene, but they would send us a lot of weaponry.
If the EU didnt come for the defence of liberty and democracy in Cuba and Venezuela, then it won’t for Canada, and no, it wont also do it even though Canada is part of NATO. The EU is not a superpower because it doesnt want to. So yeah, nobody will.
I think most citizens dont want imperialism. Id hope if the orange man gave orders for ANY troops to do anything to a friendly nation, it wouldnt happen.
Sadly his ICE demonstrations will prove that wrong, he will find small angry men to do his bidding
More than one issue. Everyone I know that voted Trump did so because of inflation. Didn’t matter what caused it. Didn’t matter if who was president would have made it different. All that mattered is prices were lower at the end of Trump’s first term than at the end of Biden’s.
Immigration too. Trump picked up support in 2024 in lower income brown and higher immigration neighborhoods like mine in Los Angeles. Most voters are naturalized immigrants and many from mixed status families here, and the neighborhood like many others that are similar swung 30 points from a huge majority Biden to a modest majority Harris. I know immigrants who are very upset about our broken immigration system and really thought that Trump wouldn’t go full Brown Shirts after they voted for him. They regret it now. But often the issue on which he polls best (even among immigrants!) is immigration policy, although they hate the tactics.
From these immigrants in mixed-status families and communities I have also heard that they were motivated by high crime in their neighborhoods, cost of living, and education for their kids. These are ideologically Democrats who the mainstream national Democratic Party doesn’t care about. That is the problem.
The fact that many is fine with it being a negotiation tactic means that they don't find the idea nearly repulsive enough to not be convinced in the future that it is fine not being just a negotiation tactic.
They’re single issue voters who only want to crush the other party. Most of them don’t even know whether Canada is north or south, or if it’s a US state already
Seriously. If you conducted a survey that included 70 million people, no one would say that wasn't a big enough sample size to apply to the population in general.
Trump won the popular vote and likely has a greater proportion of supporters in the US military than among the general population. Not only will they obey this order they are hoping to get it.
Very much so. BYD is selling cars for half the price and the only reason American companies aren't already closing up is because they have a captured market in the US.
Need to clarify something: The Trump administration is determined, not the US as a whole. Additionally, there is zero way to isolate ourselves from the rest of the world. There's no way to put that geany back in the bottle.
Jumped to #1 in Brazil over a year time period. Considering what the alternatives are, it's not totally surprising. Long distance driving isn't really a thing in Brazil. But also the lack of any super charger infrastructure says something.
The car manufacturers became too comfortable. 60% interest rates. 30% profit margins on the car itself. Offering up absolute junk that fell apart in 7 years. Basically what you would expect from a 20 year old car elsewhere.
The BYD came in about 15% higher than the lowest end cars, and in some states they offered 0% yearly registration fees (which are normally 4% of the cars current value), so basically within 4 years they cost the same as the lowest end models.
They are going to destroy these markets. They don't need to take over completely, they only need to eat enough market share where these other companies are losing out, where the parts manufactures start going under and they will wipe them all out.
They probably are, I don't watch the news here and use adblocker, so I don't know what is being pushed ad wise. However from the model that are most popular, they don't have the hybrids. In fact the best selling option is the lowest range I believe.
I also see the simplest options everywhere now (byd wise). I even wonder if they are selling so well because they offer different colours. They basically sell a white or black car with like 5% being red and red is hard to resell apparently. But BYD is coming in with a whole slew of colours and so they're very visible.
But in reality, gas is expensive for the average consumer, so they have never learned to just drive everywhere for any reason. So the lowest model versions probably work great for every one of their needs.
A road trip will require some extra planning, because the infrastructure is so weak, but in my small tourist city they do have 2 chargers that I know of, but they are SINGLE chargers. Proper credit card systems, but just 1 car at a time. Not sure about their charger speeds either, I'm assuming just a simple 240v @ 60amps. Good enough when planned for, but you're waiting awhile.
>They basically sell a white or black car with like 5% being red and red is hard to resell apparently. But BYD is coming in with a whole slew of colours and so they're very visible.
Traditional automakers usually offer their cars in black, white, shades of grey, because it's cheaper for automaker.
But lots of people like colors.
I also think Fiat 500 is very popular in Europe in part because they are being sold in so many different colors.
There are a few shades of grey now, but 10 years ago it was black or white with zero other colour options (or zero being sold). I see a few more greys these days, but those might also be imports, I never really looked at the models.
The Brazilian made cars are basically white/black, based off the car colours on the road, I would say they don't even offer any other colour options, other than possibly red, but this is something I have never bothered to look into either.
But the chinese car companies are definitely offering various colours and two tones, along with splashes of colours such as on the grill.
Hmm yeah, you are right. I just found that they stopped producing ICE. I thought they still produced it. I wonder why? Maybe they predict that ICE will stop selling within a decade? In that case Toyota will not do well
Their first models were ICE cars, and BYD completely gave up on them. Currently 50% of their sold cars are EV's, 50% PHEV's.
I think the main reason is... BYD is working on sodium batteries. These batteries are not as energy dense as lithium batteries, not as much range, but they work at greater range of temperatures, they can charge faster, they can be built for much, much cheaper, and they are built using common materials so if you wanted to build a billion cars or ten billion cars, materials wouldn't be a bottleneck.
BYD will be able to build these sodium battery EV's and PHEV's for cheaper then ICE cars. And these cars are also cheaper to operate since electricity is cheaper then petrol.
Which:
a) keeps reducing Chinese dependence on imported oil, reduces their imports too.
b) opens a huge international market for China because their cheapest EV's will be competitive with cheapest ICE cars.
If BYD produces EV's and PHEV's which are competitive with cheapest ICE cars, maybe bans are not even going to be needed.
Just like solar became so cheap it is replacing gas/oil without any subsidies.
And electric bikes, scooters are so cheap they are replacing ICE scooters.
P.S. I live on a small island and in these past two years soooo many people bought electric scooters and small electric pick-up trucks. Only ICE vehicles remaining are three tractors which are needed o haul construction material.
Every the EU has scaled back their requirement, and they’ll probably scale it back even more because they have little political will to build nuclear which is their only way out of energy dependence.
In reality the transition is going to happen anyway without the eu mandate. 2026 is 25% full ev, 10% PHEVs, growing 35% a year. https://www.reuters.com/business/europe-ev-sales-top-1-million-first-half-demand-accelerates-2026-07-16/
Add more cheap Chinese EVs and it’ll grow even more
This is where the belt and road initiative comes to place. Injecting monies into the partner countries, also injecting liquidities by way of whatever investments they do, creating jobs, increasing gdp, etc. Which also benefit China since their base market (non-US customers) is also eventually growing.
The beauty of non-developed countries customers is that they have less bias regarding established brands. Many of the first items they bought are Chinese anyway.
The rest of the world is catching up economically. Developing countries now have a growing and vibrant middle class that BYD is going to capture at the expense of U.S manufacturer’s.
The US ability to consume is collapsing because of wealth inequality. The top 10% drives something like 90% of the consumption. With some absurd number, like 99% of new car sales are into that top 10%.
Americans are rapidly becoming too poor to afford new automobiles.
I think a more likely alternative would be like the UK in the 60s and 70s. Where you have a nation that’s moved from an amazing economy pre-WW2, to just a good economy post-WW2. The result being it can’t afford the things it was able to do before.
The US is rich and successful because of its constant growth and innovation. The moment it loses that, and is not first place, the economy moves from being great to just good. That will have a seismic effect on reducing what the US is capable of doing.
The middle class is actively being priced out of being so in the US, so it will likely come earlier than in 20 years. Especially as the more affluent elder generations die off, but the wealth floats up instead of down due to elder accommodations
The UK in the 70's was inches away from needing an IMF bailout and I think the US is quite far off from that. Depends on the survival of the petrodollar though.
I just thought the scenario where a class of oligarchs keeps funding themselves and the military while living standards for ordinary people consistently fall was more likely given how you can see it already starting to happen.
The president got on TV last night and basically told the world he's going to fuck with midterms. Keep your head in the sand, should work out nicely for you.
>The US will become a failed nation within our lifetime
> What does this have to do with the president or tv or midterms?
You're not operating at 100% are ya? Hmm, I wonder what the lack of free and fair elections might have to do with the US becoming a failed state... If you hate reddit so much, leave, you won't be missed.
Yes, it was. It is not that BYD chose to avoid the US. BYD accepted that reality of US imposed restrictions and still believes that it can become the #1 car maker without the US.
It's already #1 in quite a few markets. I was surprised that it jumped to #1 in 2024 in Singapore (a unique market that favoured more luxurious cars due to the Certificate of Entitlement scheme) and continued expanding its lead.
American consumers were only valuable post-WWii because the war left every peer nation destitute. America became the world leader in science, technology and manufacturing. Everyone else who could compete before the war was bombed or taken behind the iron curtain. The very threat of communism led to concessions that grew the American middle-class. Now that middle-class is gone and Trump makes that more transparent than ever.
Selling EV’s in the US might be harder than it’s worth for them.
There’s barriers to entry due to tariffs, then the loss of EV tax incentives while traditional ICE cars are still subsidised, the charging network infrastructure also might not be up to standard for the figures that they would want to sell too.
It’s an uphill battle for any EV company let alone a Chinese one.
US GDP per capita is like 7x China though. Per Cap GDP also 40% more then the UK - the US buys 16 million cars a year, the UK 2 million. Americans buy a lot per person.
The US consumer is different to EU and Asia. A significant portion of US folks have an affinity for petrol/diesel vehicles.
In the U.K. we’re quite indifferent and EVs are booming, as charging infrastructure improves. China also offers fairly affordable EVs to many Asian markets, where incomes are much lower and fuel prices are rising, so both continents are better for BYD tbh
Well, the day will come when the big boys simply choose not to sell in the US, because getting through regulatory dealing with all the import/export shit will be not worth it. I'm gonna laugh when the new iPhones and Galaxy phones and stuff don't make it to the US until a year or two after first launch.
There are already a lot of cars that get made that aren't sold in the US. None of Japan's K-cars are legal in the US. We don't get any of Ford's coupes or sedans, except the Mustang. There are very few inexpensive, fun little sports cars on the market (all we have right now is the Miata and the GR86, and 2027 is the last model year for the 86). Most of what Toyota sells are Rav4s and Prius's. The Prius at least is a decent vehicle despite being butt ugly and uninspiring, with a cheap feeling interior. The civic is cool but they aren't bringing in the Type R (the good one) any more. We barely got the Ford Focus ST, possibly the coolest of the hot hatches. I don't know that we got ANY of the ones with Volvo's hot little 5cyl engine.
or it just goes to show how they believe their vertical integration will allow them to dominate the market. I doubt they are decoupling and will actually get started on some factories in the US in due time. It's just business. Who wouldnt want some sweet sweet US consumer dollars?
I don’t think they will be able to do that without becoming much more competent at making ICE engines, which is a much bigger challenge for them than making electric cars.
EVs are not ideal for every application or market, so they are not 100 percent the future from a market share perspective. So while they may be positioned to dominate EV sales they really are going to be missing a large portion of the auto market; particularly the lucrative commercial/industrial half. So while they may be very large, other automaker that sells both would likely be able to be larger from a sales volume perspective.
In terms of their ICE development. It was the limiting factor from China dominating earlier. Their ICE engines are decades behind Japan, Germany and even the US.
heavy industrial: heavy mining trucks are already becoming EV, see australian mega mines.
commercial last mile deliveries: amazon is rapidly electrifying their whole van fleet, the start stop of deliveries massively favour EVs. commercial vans will become all EV.
short to medium haul trucking: over 50% of truck sales in china are already EV.
long haul trucking: yeah EVs have no solution for this today. Fairly small segment of the overall market though.
So what exactly is left for ICE that is such a sizeable market?
75 percent of the new car market is ICE. That maybe goes down to 70-65 percent in 5 years. So unless they control near 100 percent of new electric car sales, which they won’t. They will not be the largest car manufacturer.
i guess we just disagree on the speed of the transition. 2026 data is already predicting >28% EV sales globally. New tech shipping in the next 12mo (semi solid state, cheap sodium batteries+cheaper EVs, ) is going to make consumer EVs more and more attractive from a cost and performance PoV. We're rapidly approaching the tipping point where an EV is cheaper than its equivalent ICE model - once that happens the transition will turn exponential. in 5 years we'll be way over 50% imo
EV sales growth accelerates versus decelerate. Growth is currently deaccelerating, which even BYD is experiencing with negative sales growth domestically.
BYD captures almost all of those additional sales.
The car industry is very competitive and a bit like fashion. People don’t drive a Mercedes or BMW because it is significantly better than a Toyota, they drive it because it is a status symbol, so the idea one company can suddenly capture the whole market is a bit naive.
Unless you have any evidence to suggest the global ev share growth is declining, im going to believe the professional modelers.
they dont have to capture all new sales. From here "Last year, BYD sold 4.55 million cars globally. For comparison, Toyota sold 10.5 million units (excluding Daihatsu and Hino). For 2026, BYD has guided for 5.0 to 5.5 million total global NEV sales"
So, they're already at half toyotas share. Toyotas share will decline as the ICE sales pool rapidly shrinks unless they can make some decent cheap EVs, making it easier to catch them.
Im not saying its guaranteed but its very possible. Whoever first ships EVs that are cheaper than their ICE counterpart is going to win a massive chunk of the world. Its far more likely thats BYD than stuck-in-the-past toyota.
Already happening in Indonesia with about 300 million population. Traditional japanese carmakers used to rule but their sales have dropped significantly since BYD came in. And it looks like the same is happening in the rest of SEA.
Really doesn't help that brands like Toyota are charging premium prices for their EVs which most people won't bother buying when they can get similar quality for cheaper from BYD.
I know Toyota is behind in the EV game but how exactly do you compete against BYD who flood the world market with dumping prices? BYDs goal is to eliminate as much competition as possible and then they will raise prices and make their money when no competition is left.
America hasn't been able to compete in the automotive industry since the 1980's without protectionism, threats and tariffs.
Canada will gladly shed their grifting American automobile companies that constantly ask for more funds, bail outs and protectionism if BYD brings manufacturing or assembly over.
Hilariously, protectionism, largely from the Trump admin, is what's going to do them in. Weakening the transition to EVs in the US market has made US manufactures non-player in the world market.
> Hilariously, protectionism, largely from the Trump admin, is what's going to do them in.
the defensible part of capitalism is markets, but capitalism, especially american capitalism, hates markets with the fury of 1000 suns. so we get this shitty capitalism where nobody is able to compete because they've been spending all of their money trying to eliminate market competition.
Besides one companies internal claims can you prove this? I don't believe that US consumer demand is slowing and it is still the largest in the world by a long shot.
So funnily enough, it is actually the ending of the protectionism which made US automakers uncompetitive.
There used to be requirements on the parts for US auto which forced manufacturers to make those parts locally. But the US auto-industry is highly unionized, which is something both political parties have hated.
So what happened? The US reduced regulations protecting local workers in favor of allowing the big auto manufacturers to offshore large portions of their car production.
That offshoring is exactly what ultimately enabled offshore auto manufacturers to start thriving. When china is already making like 90% of the parts, it makes sense they could decide the just take the 10% and start producing full cars.
The US policy of protecting just the corporate offices and not the US workers is what's caused US auto to be a joke globally. We outsourced all of our experience and expertise and now we are paying the price.
US has ~4% of world population. So not that difficult on paper as rest of the world move toward the future w/o the US. Or rather US decides to isolate itself from rest of the world.
US GDP is larger than the 150 countries at the bottom combined. Then entire GDP of ASEAN would be that of California.
Chinese phones absolutely dominate in volumes for example but Apple has more revenue and profit than all Chinese brands combined.
While BYD can overtake Toyota in volume. Toyota will have more profits than all Chinese brands combined and 2025 was a good year for them despite all the competition from China.
Toyota thought that by taking a more conservative approach in developing EVs, they can develop better and more reliable EVs while protecting its brand image. They aren't rushing like what BYD is doing because if even one poor-quality EV gets released, it damages their reputation. This is a logical and reasonable approach, however, by the time Toyota has developed an affordable/reliable EV, many consumers would have gotten used to the cheaper BYD cars.
They would think "Hey, I've been driving this cheap EV for years now. It doesn't feel as good as a Toyota but I've gotten used to it and it saves me money". Personally, I prefer the more reliable EV, and the real question is, "Is it worth the extra money?". Sometimes, better quality can save you maintenance costs, other times, it makes negligible difference. It is going to be difficult to choose between Toyota or BYD, and BYD is a serious competitor.
They certainly haven't done this with their large truck platform which has tanked their reputation. It seem when high margins are available for quick profits, all that quality and careful planning stuff goes out the window.
The BZ was a flop with wheels falling off when it launched. It wasn’t until the refresh and lowered prices that it became competitive in the N. American market. It’s still completely uncompetitive against newer Chinese EV’s.
So much for taking the conservative approach to avoid poor quality and damaging brand reputation.
Subjevtively, it is also one of the least conservative designs, and i dont think there is any of current Toyota EVs that does look nice (except the jointly chinese developed bz3). Ugly, out of date on release, but carried by great financing. I see way too many of these eyesores around
You have to be kidding yourself if you think a Toyota feels that much better, if any at all, to drive than a BYD. I have tried both, and there is a reason i drive a BYD today
The question is also how reliable the Brand is in supporting their products for decades
If I buy a BYD can I rely on support down the line?
I think that reputation is not there yet (because it's a young and unknown company outside CN) but if BYD is still there in 10 years, then they will have build it
> Toyota thought that by taking a more conservative approach in developing EVs, they can develop better and more reliable EVs while protecting its brand image
they could have spun up another brand like they did with scion to test their EV platforms, and if that all worked out, they could absorb it back into the parent brand, like they did with the scions that survived.
Kinda obvious. While the US isolates itself China will just take over the rest. Eventually they'll have such scale and lead that US automakers will become limited to their captive market and unable to compete globally.
I don’t understand - what American car companies have been doing this for decades? When has a single company “taken over the rest of the countries” like that to the point that we refer to them as their country name (“China”) and not as the company?
Well BYD is just the one with the biggest name. There's loads of Chinese brands. Omada, Jaecoo, Leap motor, Great wall motors, MG, Polestar, XPeng, BYD
Sure but as this very thread pointed out (and did so happily), it’s “China” that is taking over, which is an apropos moniker, since they’re all heavily state involved.
Also, EV are mechanically much simpler, so they don't employ nearly as many people in the assembly lines anyways. That is as true for Chinese EVs and Western ones.
The idea of the auto industry as a major driver of employment is dying, Chinese EVs or not.
Ford, GM, Audi, Renault, FIAT, Toyota and Honda all have factories in Brazil sending profit back to their respective home countries. Same is true for Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Morocco, Thailand, Spain, Eastern Europe, Turkey and many other places.
What difference does it make to any of the countries I listed if the car sale profit in their market goes to China or to Germany? Why would they prefer WV over BYD?
To any of them, BYD being state subsidized or not is utterly irrelevant.
No, we generally don’t celebrate a single company as a proxy for an entire country “taking over” another country. Thats what the “British east India corporation” was.
Sorry, no one in Brazil cares about any of that. If anything we're really happy that the traditional car companies who for so many years have exploited the domestic car market with their exorbitant pricing are gettting pounded. People just want their cheap EVs.
Sure - I have no doubt that some Brazilians are fine with being a Chinese colony and used as a dumping ground for exports over time, tolerating the secularly high unemployment that creates in the long run.
I’m simply wondering if every other country outside of the US is. I’m strongly guessing no.
Taking over mean u will harm the nation car sector. U will hit many cake. Unless u can be the replacement and give your profit to the local, you will face increasw import duty, get call dumping.
The profit from car factories in developing countries has ALWAYS gone back to the headquarters in the host country. What’s the difference if that factory is American owned, Chinese owned, or Japanese owned?
Functionally for Brazil, it’s the same thing. Profits are taken out of the country. Also, if you look at the history of Latin America, very often multinational businesses work closely with the US government as well.
In all practicality, how what is the difference between a Chinese company having members of the government on their board and an US company employing lobbyists that shape US foreign policy on their board?
Why are you saying China is deindustrializing Brazil? They’ve actually been aiding them to industrialize.
One is entirely under the direction of Chinese government agents and its foreign policy interests.
The second is routinely doing things solely for shareholder interest to the point where it’s a meme that it’s often AGAINST US foreign policy interests.
What’s confusing lmao?
And why are you confused about deindustrialization? Their goal is very much trying to sell TO them, not employ them.
Well it's happening. For every country that engaged in protectionism another country will open it's market because they want Chinese cars which are cheaper and better.
Sure and those that do will soon face electoral issues because foreign state sponsored take overs of domestic industries generally leads to secular unemployment and unrest.
We know this because China herself didn’t allow it in her own market without enormous concessions on ownership, tech transfer, and the like.
That too will happen regardless of how much Reddit glazes China for literally anything it does ever.
Most countries absolutely do have domestic industries that create parts for cars.
Your joyous declarations of Chinese dominance in all things as a Chinese partisan are premature (which is typical for you folks) - I bet protectionism rises in tandem in these countries and you’ll be wearing a shocked pikachu face (imported from Japan) when it happens.
China is the pre-eminent leader in EVs and battery tech. No amount of protectionism is going to unwind the mega trend of electrification.
You think they won't follow the same path as Korea and Japan.
It's not about joy. It's about reality. Protectionism without progress leads to regression and museum culture. If Japan doesn't get it's act together it will lose market after market to Chinese cars which are technologically superior and cheaper.
Yes, it’s always reality that China is going to endlessly win and others should just let it happen.
Naturally lmao.
This sub may glaze you for saying that but the electoral constituents of most of those countries won’t when you deindustrialize them and they have no jobs.
Well China doesn't owe them anything and it was America that deindustrialised itself. It was US captains of industry who outsourced their industries for more profits and shareholder returns.
China doesn't owe any of these countries anything. It's job is to look after it's own people.
It's a strong opinion held by a lot of asian countries. South Korea has a tense relationship with China because they still trade with North Korea and they're strong allies with the US.
Japan and China have always been neck and neck with China taking the lead in recent years.
Taiwan is afraid China will attack them.
Korea and Japan buy their own country's cars because of nationalism, they have the means to make EVs (while their ICE and hybrid cars are demonstrably better) and also it's just more efficient when every repairman knows the most commonly sold cars.
South east asia just buys the cars available to them.
It's easier now for an export-driven company to make money by ignoring the US market, as many there have a low disposable income.
The purchasing power of ordinary Americans is falling while that of many in developing countries is rising. As of February 2026 (according to Statista), 50% of the population own just 2.5% of the net worth of the country. One percent own 31.7%, and 10% own 68%.
So why bend over backwards to sell affordable EVs into 20% of the global market where most customers don't have much money and a predatory system of dealerships sits between the manufacturer and the customer trying to screw consumers at every turn? Europe, Latin America, South-East Asia, and Australia combined have way more people with money in their pocket for the products BYD sells.
The median price of new car sales in China is around $23K. There’s far less profit (actually a lot of these sales are likely at a loss) in the Chinese market than the US. Most Chinese auto companies are losing money.
Gaining market share through chinese government subsidized pricing is entirely a different matter than gaining brand loyalty for quality and dependability. Toyota built a reputation through meticulous quality, BYD through government manipulation.
BYD has traditionally been a battery maker and their vehicles offer a number of bells and whistles, but suffer from being glitchy and spotty service. The chinese government whines and cries for markets to open for their vehicles exports, but closes off their own domestic markets to foreign competition in every way possible. They do not practice fair trade.
Make no mistake that chinese control of any industry is eventually used as a form of extortion for their government to promote their geopolitical agenda. Opening a domestic market to chinese subsidized imports of autos is weakening your cou trus domestic industry base.
You say all of this as if US auto manufacturers aren't propped up almost entirely by the US taxpayer. Trump literally gets on TV and cries about BYD and countries needing to buy US autos. I don't agree with either and think consumers are getting worked over in the end, but pretending China is evil when the US does the exact same shit is laughable.
> Make no mistake that chinese control of any industry is eventually used as a form of extortion for their government to promote their geopolitical agenda.
The US via Trump has cut off Visa/Mastercard access to foreign judges he personally disagrees with.
I suppose it was luck but I bought it right after I test drove and ordered my Model X. Back then they were really quite different than other cars. China has definitely caught up and is now gonna destroy the legacy makers and most likely Tesla too
Have been in them and for sure they’re good cars (can’t speak to longevity though). I figured the cost is because they’ve been subsidized and operate at thin margins to capture market share
till big countries with cheap market like India doesn’t open there market with EU and America it will be a very temporary boom like there smartphones every year a company changes and loses it market
Many years ago, all multinational companies were doing everything they could to enter the Chinese market, because they thought Chinese market is the future. If they had not did it, CEOs would be blamed for losing the future of the companies. Nowadays, less and less multinational companies care about Chinese market anymore, because they can still be the largest companies in their industries without Chinese market anymore. Chinese market is very national protective for decades and foreign companies cannot make money nowadays. However, nobody in the sub blamed Chinese government for this. When other countries did the same, everyone blamed them. I want to say good luck to BYD. U.S. market is very profitable. Companies can ditch Chinese market right now because it is almost not profitable. I hope BYD will not be bankrupt in the future soon like the once largest Chinese building company Evergrande Group because of the huge debts.
And it is not just about the population, which is huge. It is about US market which is obsessed with the cars.
While Europe and Asia are more focused on trains, planes or other transport projects which will limit the car transport.
Also, it is absolutely normal for any citizen of these continent to not have a car, while american mindset is have at least one or two.
The BYD hype train keeps on going. Yup, the math is not mathing. Plus, outside Europe and North America and a few other countries we are talking about very low average incomes. In many countries, the cheapest BYD is already more expensive than annual incomes. Not much of a market there. I also doubt they have that much more room to grow in China. There’s only so many people willing to buy a BYD in any place.
The idea that fast-growing regions like South-East Asia are populated by penniless peasants who can't afford a $US15,000 car from BYD is absurd.
You sound very, very old and the world has changed exponentially since the 1950s and 1960s stereotypes that populate your brain. Europe and the US make up about 13% of the world's population. If you combine Europe, Latin America, Africa, Oceania and South-East Asia car sales that dwarfs the US. China crushes it, and that's not even mentioning Japan, Korea and the emerging massive market of India.
SEA incomes are very low overall, but you are looking at where the people are, not where the sales are. There’s about 95 million car sales annually. 17 are in US, 12-13 are in Europe. That’s 1/3 of the market. Japan and Korea are 6 million together. India is another 5 million. China is 34 million, so that’s another 1/3 roughly. If you add up these numbers, we are already up to 75 million sales, so the rest of the world combined is about 20 million, right? Let’s just say that the US, Japan, Korea, Germany, France won’t buy any BYD cars, because they largely favor their domestic companies. I highly doubt India will just let BYD in to flood their market with imports. They already have the Chinese market, so to surpass Toyota they’ll need to gain market share from the remaining 20 million roughly, right? They’d need to gain something like 5 million sales (25% market share!) out of these 20 million to make up for Toyota’s lead. That’s not going to happen. Remember that Toyota is highly profitable and has a lot of room to lower prices if they see their market share erode. Obviously these are rough numbers, but it goes to show the scale needed. It doesn’t help BYD’s case that the Chinese market is tanking currently.
This plus public transport as Asia and Europe are developing it and many citizens will not need a car to get somewhere.
They will simply use train, plane or ship, so car markets there will shrink.
While US doesn't have such mentality, so the car market will be still the same.
These are very densely populated areas where parking is often either non-existent or comes at a premium. Then, you have the charging aspect, where it’s not all that convenient for apartment dwellers. In the US, parking is usually free and plentiful and most people (especially ones that buy EVs) live in single family homes with garages. Very different worlds and experiences.
“Made in China” is synonymous with cheap, temporary products.
If there’s one thing I know, it’s how often someone needs to pound their Chinese chest on this sub, lol, saying China is supreme. Ok buddy, let’s a give “carnewschina.com” the respect it deserves, nada, lol
>“Made in China” is synonymous with cheap, temporary products.
What is this, 1990? In reality, China has the best tooling, best trained factory workforce and most efficient supply chains in the world. You can't even find people in the US to setup and tool a factory, I've tried.
this is a very out of date take. They have most of the highest quality manufacturing in the world now. Yes, they also manufacture cheap crap but they also do top end now too.
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[OP] cambeiu | a day ago
That BYD feels confident that it can become the largest car maker in the world WITHOUT selling a single car in the US is the bigger story here.
Since the end of World War 2, access to the American consumer has been the holy grail for global corporations.
Today, China’s biggest carmaker is openly saying it doesn’t need that consumer to become number one.
That is a seismic shift in global trade and demonstrates how serious China is taking decoupling from the USA.
Arctic-Material611 | a day ago
Well the US is determined to isolate itself from everyone. Likely shrinking their own companies markets in the process
Legitimate-Type4387 | a day ago
As a Canadian I wish.
They’re spiting their allies while hungrily eyeing the entirety of North and South America.
That’s the opposite of isolationist.
[OP] cambeiu | a day ago
Well, Brazil is already lost to the US.
Trade between Brazil and China in 2025 was $171 billion.
Trade between US and Brazil during that same year was 25% of that. And today Trump announced that it was putting 25% additional tariffs on Brazilian products.
StunningCloud9184 | a day ago
Thats what happens when youre not a right wing dictator and put them in jail like brazil does.
akius0 | a day ago
South America is dominated by BYD and other Chinese brands... Mexico, Colombia Brazil... US automakers have zero chance here
Sleepybystander | a day ago
Hope EU comes to your defence, if not idk who will
Legitimate-Type4387 | a day ago
We’re entering Eurovision so there’s still hope lol
sicklyslick | a day ago
We're entering Eurovision because several countries have boycotted Eurovision because of Israel. We're seat fillers.
Sleepybystander | a day ago
Babystep
ElectroMagnetsYo | a day ago
It’d be similar to the Ukraine war in which any power that is interested in taking the US down a peg wouldn’t directly intervene, but they would send us a lot of weaponry.
rich84easy | a day ago
EU which doesn’t spend much on military will somehow cross the Atlantic Ocean and come help Canada. EU will have Eurovision in support of Canada
Valoneria | a day ago
Ah yes, some roughly $400 billion a year is not much.
dyslexda | a day ago
> will somehow cross the Atlantic Ocean and come help Canada
That's the important part.
GikFTW | a day ago
Number doesnt matter if it doesnt want to defend its interests.
froz3nt | a day ago
It doesnt spend as much as US but it certainly spends a lot.
GikFTW | a day ago
If the EU didnt come for the defence of liberty and democracy in Cuba and Venezuela, then it won’t for Canada, and no, it wont also do it even though Canada is part of NATO. The EU is not a superpower because it doesnt want to. So yeah, nobody will.
Shmeepsheep | a day ago
I think most citizens dont want imperialism. Id hope if the orange man gave orders for ANY troops to do anything to a friendly nation, it wouldnt happen.
Sadly his ICE demonstrations will prove that wrong, he will find small angry men to do his bidding
Bhavacakra_12 | a day ago
>I think most citizens dont want imperialism
Trump won the popular vote. All those people and their values aren't going to magically disappear by 2028.
Shmeepsheep | a day ago
Yes, and those idiots thought they were getting no new wars and america first isolationism.
Hawk13424 | a day ago
More than one issue. Everyone I know that voted Trump did so because of inflation. Didn’t matter what caused it. Didn’t matter if who was president would have made it different. All that mattered is prices were lower at the end of Trump’s first term than at the end of Biden’s.
StunningCloud9184 | a day ago
How they feeling now? Its funny how we had daily news articles about the price of ground beef under biden yet its up 30% under trump and crickets.
People get told what to think. Democrats dont have a chance with right wing billionaires owning all means of communication
JefeRex | a day ago
Immigration too. Trump picked up support in 2024 in lower income brown and higher immigration neighborhoods like mine in Los Angeles. Most voters are naturalized immigrants and many from mixed status families here, and the neighborhood like many others that are similar swung 30 points from a huge majority Biden to a modest majority Harris. I know immigrants who are very upset about our broken immigration system and really thought that Trump wouldn’t go full Brown Shirts after they voted for him. They regret it now. But often the issue on which he polls best (even among immigrants!) is immigration policy, although they hate the tactics.
From these immigrants in mixed-status families and communities I have also heard that they were motivated by high crime in their neighborhoods, cost of living, and education for their kids. These are ideologically Democrats who the mainstream national Democratic Party doesn’t care about. That is the problem.
Weird_Ad_1398 | a day ago
It's not like he won on the platform of "invade Canada"
Bhavacakra_12 | a day ago
His approval rating is still in the 30s. Which, apparently, means he's still within striking distance of democrat approval ratings.
He may not have won on the platform of invading Canada, but evidently, his supporters don't care if he does.
Hawk13424 | a day ago
No, they just care more about other issues. Some also just don’t think he’d do it. That it’s a “negotiation tactic”.
Danne660 | a day ago
The fact that many is fine with it being a negotiation tactic means that they don't find the idea nearly repulsive enough to not be convinced in the future that it is fine not being just a negotiation tactic.
ReserveFormal3910 | a day ago
He sure isn't losing that much support from his rabid supporters.
SlideRuleLogic | a day ago
They’re single issue voters who only want to crush the other party. Most of them don’t even know whether Canada is north or south, or if it’s a US state already
6158675309 | a day ago
True. But that’s still only about 30% of eligible voters. I’m pretty sure most citizens do not want that.
It may not change anything though. The way the system works in the US you don’t need a majority of citizens, you need about 30%.
Even if the population wants something the politicians don’t have to vote for it.
Plenty of non partisan topics that will never get anywhere
8004612286 | a day ago
Every time I see this argument people seem to assume that the 30% that didn't vote would somehow be a 100% democratic vote. Makes no sense.
There's no reason to assume that if people were forced to vote the result would be any different.
AnAncientBog | a day ago
Seriously. If you conducted a survey that included 70 million people, no one would say that wasn't a big enough sample size to apply to the population in general.
ElectroMagnetsYo | a day ago
They’d disapprove at first but once American soldiers start coming home draped in a flag the programmed nationalism will take over.
AnAncientBog | a day ago
Trump won the popular vote and likely has a greater proportion of supporters in the US military than among the general population. Not only will they obey this order they are hoping to get it.
Zank_Frappa | a day ago
The vast, vast majority of Americans vote for imperialism, what are you talking about?
Charming_Raccoon4361 | a day ago
canada will not side with china in favour of china
earache30 | a day ago
IMO the us auto industry is dead on its feet.
AnAncientBog | a day ago
Very much so. BYD is selling cars for half the price and the only reason American companies aren't already closing up is because they have a captured market in the US.
BroughtBagLunchSmart | a day ago
Reagan did his best to destroy the middle class and we are still paying for that.
JitteryJoes1986 | a day ago
We gave the candy store in the 70s and 80s and its taken almost 40-50 years to feel the effects of globalization. It's pushing us to the brink IMO.
Its a damn if you do, damn if you don't scenario.
Alt4816 | a day ago
Tariffing almost everyone else in the world is basically the same as putting some sanctions on yourself.
Fresh-Quantity-7554 | a day ago
Need to clarify something: The Trump administration is determined, not the US as a whole. Additionally, there is zero way to isolate ourselves from the rest of the world. There's no way to put that geany back in the bottle.
pkennedy | a day ago
Jumped to #1 in Brazil over a year time period. Considering what the alternatives are, it's not totally surprising. Long distance driving isn't really a thing in Brazil. But also the lack of any super charger infrastructure says something.
The car manufacturers became too comfortable. 60% interest rates. 30% profit margins on the car itself. Offering up absolute junk that fell apart in 7 years. Basically what you would expect from a 20 year old car elsewhere.
The BYD came in about 15% higher than the lowest end cars, and in some states they offered 0% yearly registration fees (which are normally 4% of the cars current value), so basically within 4 years they cost the same as the lowest end models.
They are going to destroy these markets. They don't need to take over completely, they only need to eat enough market share where these other companies are losing out, where the parts manufactures start going under and they will wipe them all out.
[OP] cambeiu | a day ago
>But also the lack of any super charger infrastructure says something.
Aren't they pushing plug-in hybrids to address the lack of charging infrastructure?
pkennedy | a day ago
They probably are, I don't watch the news here and use adblocker, so I don't know what is being pushed ad wise. However from the model that are most popular, they don't have the hybrids. In fact the best selling option is the lowest range I believe.
I also see the simplest options everywhere now (byd wise). I even wonder if they are selling so well because they offer different colours. They basically sell a white or black car with like 5% being red and red is hard to resell apparently. But BYD is coming in with a whole slew of colours and so they're very visible.
But in reality, gas is expensive for the average consumer, so they have never learned to just drive everywhere for any reason. So the lowest model versions probably work great for every one of their needs.
A road trip will require some extra planning, because the infrastructure is so weak, but in my small tourist city they do have 2 chargers that I know of, but they are SINGLE chargers. Proper credit card systems, but just 1 car at a time. Not sure about their charger speeds either, I'm assuming just a simple 240v @ 60amps. Good enough when planned for, but you're waiting awhile.
PunkPirate56364 | a day ago
>They basically sell a white or black car with like 5% being red and red is hard to resell apparently. But BYD is coming in with a whole slew of colours and so they're very visible.
Traditional automakers usually offer their cars in black, white, shades of grey, because it's cheaper for automaker.
But lots of people like colors.
I also think Fiat 500 is very popular in Europe in part because they are being sold in so many different colors.
pkennedy | a day ago
There are a few shades of grey now, but 10 years ago it was black or white with zero other colour options (or zero being sold). I see a few more greys these days, but those might also be imports, I never really looked at the models.
The Brazilian made cars are basically white/black, based off the car colours on the road, I would say they don't even offer any other colour options, other than possibly red, but this is something I have never bothered to look into either.
But the chinese car companies are definitely offering various colours and two tones, along with splashes of colours such as on the grill.
PunkPirate56364 | a day ago
50% of BYD sales are plug-in hybrids, 50% are EV's.
And their PHEV's are great.
AnAncientBog | a day ago
At the prices they are selling for, people are willing to make some compromises.
moiwantkwason | a day ago
It’s possible. China is the biggest car market in the world and they already captured that
VEMODMASKINEN | a day ago
It's not possible. They're not even close and growth wise they've slowed down YoY in regards to vehicles produced.
It's not like Toyota is standing still either, they've increased production the last few years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automotive_manufacturers_by_production
moiwantkwason | a day ago
How is toyota sales breakdown by country? I can imagine the sell the most in the U.S.
BYD has been focused on EVs but when they ramp up ICE I could imagine their number will rise up significantly
VEMODMASKINEN | a day ago
Ramp up ICE? You'll have to elaborate there because they have PHEVs and EVs. I somehow doubt they'd go back to producing ICE vehicles.
moiwantkwason | a day ago
Hmm yeah, you are right. I just found that they stopped producing ICE. I thought they still produced it. I wonder why? Maybe they predict that ICE will stop selling within a decade? In that case Toyota will not do well
PunkPirate56364 | a day ago
Their first models were ICE cars, and BYD completely gave up on them. Currently 50% of their sold cars are EV's, 50% PHEV's.
I think the main reason is... BYD is working on sodium batteries. These batteries are not as energy dense as lithium batteries, not as much range, but they work at greater range of temperatures, they can charge faster, they can be built for much, much cheaper, and they are built using common materials so if you wanted to build a billion cars or ten billion cars, materials wouldn't be a bottleneck.
BYD will be able to build these sodium battery EV's and PHEV's for cheaper then ICE cars. And these cars are also cheaper to operate since electricity is cheaper then petrol.
Which:
a) keeps reducing Chinese dependence on imported oil, reduces their imports too.
b) opens a huge international market for China because their cheapest EV's will be competitive with cheapest ICE cars.
moiwantkwason | a day ago
Let’s see how it plays out over the decade. More and more countries are banning ICE sales
PunkPirate56364 | a day ago
If BYD produces EV's and PHEV's which are competitive with cheapest ICE cars, maybe bans are not even going to be needed.
Just like solar became so cheap it is replacing gas/oil without any subsidies.
And electric bikes, scooters are so cheap they are replacing ICE scooters.
P.S. I live on a small island and in these past two years soooo many people bought electric scooters and small electric pick-up trucks. Only ICE vehicles remaining are three tractors which are needed o haul construction material.
User-NetOfInter | a day ago
Who? Ethiopia?! Cmon now
Every the EU has scaled back their requirement, and they’ll probably scale it back even more because they have little political will to build nuclear which is their only way out of energy dependence.
dalyons | a day ago
In reality the transition is going to happen anyway without the eu mandate. 2026 is 25% full ev, 10% PHEVs, growing 35% a year. https://www.reuters.com/business/europe-ev-sales-top-1-million-first-half-demand-accelerates-2026-07-16/
Add more cheap Chinese EVs and it’ll grow even more
moiwantkwason | a day ago
They only pushed it off not totally allergic to the idea
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles
User-NetOfInter | a day ago
Nonsense
moiwantkwason | a day ago
What a shrewd analysis
friedapple | a day ago
This is where the belt and road initiative comes to place. Injecting monies into the partner countries, also injecting liquidities by way of whatever investments they do, creating jobs, increasing gdp, etc. Which also benefit China since their base market (non-US customers) is also eventually growing.
The beauty of non-developed countries customers is that they have less bias regarding established brands. Many of the first items they bought are Chinese anyway.
vinashayanadushitha | a day ago
The rest of the world is catching up economically. Developing countries now have a growing and vibrant middle class that BYD is going to capture at the expense of U.S manufacturer’s.
Hawk13424 | a day ago
Number one in volume of cars. Probably not number one in revenue or profit. What matters to a company long term is profit.
earache30 | a day ago
I saw a ton of these in Spain last month. They’re definitely competitive.
__Geg__ | a day ago
The US ability to consume is collapsing because of wealth inequality. The top 10% drives something like 90% of the consumption. With some absurd number, like 99% of new car sales are into that top 10%.
Americans are rapidly becoming too poor to afford new automobiles.
Bloodyfinger | a day ago
The US will become a failed nation within our lifetime
VEMODMASKINEN | a day ago
Not even North Korea or Iran have failed entirely ..
Istoilleambreakdowns | a day ago
Feels a bit hyperbolic to say failed nation.
Though if the USA in 20 years resembles Russia more than the EU I wouldn't be shocked.
jl2352 | a day ago
I think a more likely alternative would be like the UK in the 60s and 70s. Where you have a nation that’s moved from an amazing economy pre-WW2, to just a good economy post-WW2. The result being it can’t afford the things it was able to do before.
The US is rich and successful because of its constant growth and innovation. The moment it loses that, and is not first place, the economy moves from being great to just good. That will have a seismic effect on reducing what the US is capable of doing.
Valoneria | a day ago
The middle class is actively being priced out of being so in the US, so it will likely come earlier than in 20 years. Especially as the more affluent elder generations die off, but the wealth floats up instead of down due to elder accommodations
lozo78 | a day ago
Or you could be like my mom who gave most of her estate to a fringe Catholic cult.
Istoilleambreakdowns | a day ago
The UK in the 70's was inches away from needing an IMF bailout and I think the US is quite far off from that. Depends on the survival of the petrodollar though.
I just thought the scenario where a class of oligarchs keeps funding themselves and the military while living standards for ordinary people consistently fall was more likely given how you can see it already starting to happen.
I agree about innovation though.
Legitimate-Type4387 | a day ago
One can only hope it happens before they have the opportunity to go full fascist on the rest of the continent.
JitteryJoes1986 | a day ago
lol peak reddit comment here
This is why most people don't reddit. lmao
303uru | a day ago
The president got on TV last night and basically told the world he's going to fuck with midterms. Keep your head in the sand, should work out nicely for you.
JitteryJoes1986 | a day ago
What does this have to do with the president or tv or midterms?
lmao you are so hyperbolic lmao
Another reddit nugget comment lmao
303uru | a day ago
>The US will become a failed nation within our lifetime
> What does this have to do with the president or tv or midterms?
You're not operating at 100% are ya? Hmm, I wonder what the lack of free and fair elections might have to do with the US becoming a failed state... If you hate reddit so much, leave, you won't be missed.
JitteryJoes1986 | a day ago
Another gold one!
bladex1234 | a day ago
Africa is a huge growth market. China is looking to capitalize on that while the US twiddles its thumbs. Just look at the Belt and Road Initiative.
bjran8888 | a day ago
As a Chinese person, I’m confused: Wasn’t it the U.S. that rejected Chinese cars first?
Do you remember the 100% tariff on Chinese cars during the Biden administration? It’s still in effect.
[OP] cambeiu | a day ago
Yes, it was. It is not that BYD chose to avoid the US. BYD accepted that reality of US imposed restrictions and still believes that it can become the #1 car maker without the US.
bjran8888 | a day ago
Actually, BYD has an electric bus factory in the U.S. … Of course, it entered the market around 2018.
As for what happened afterward… we all know the story.
Durian881 | a day ago
It's already #1 in quite a few markets. I was surprised that it jumped to #1 in 2024 in Singapore (a unique market that favoured more luxurious cars due to the Certificate of Entitlement scheme) and continued expanding its lead.
Exciting-Emu-3324 | a day ago
American consumers were only valuable post-WWii because the war left every peer nation destitute. America became the world leader in science, technology and manufacturing. Everyone else who could compete before the war was bombed or taken behind the iron curtain. The very threat of communism led to concessions that grew the American middle-class. Now that middle-class is gone and Trump makes that more transparent than ever.
ReeceJSmith | a day ago
Selling EV’s in the US might be harder than it’s worth for them.
There’s barriers to entry due to tariffs, then the loss of EV tax incentives while traditional ICE cars are still subsidised, the charging network infrastructure also might not be up to standard for the figures that they would want to sell too.
It’s an uphill battle for any EV company let alone a Chinese one.
Constant-Plant-9378 | a day ago
The population of the United States is only about 338 million.
The population of the rest of the world is nearly 8 billion people.
The EU alone is about 450 million. Britain is about 68 million.
Toyota is already very well established across the globe. BYD will have their work cut out for them to eclipse Toyota, regardless of the US market.
TheGrog | a day ago
US GDP per capita is like 7x China though. Per Cap GDP also 40% more then the UK - the US buys 16 million cars a year, the UK 2 million. Americans buy a lot per person.
I_AmA_Zebra | a day ago
The US consumer is different to EU and Asia. A significant portion of US folks have an affinity for petrol/diesel vehicles.
In the U.K. we’re quite indifferent and EVs are booming, as charging infrastructure improves. China also offers fairly affordable EVs to many Asian markets, where incomes are much lower and fuel prices are rising, so both continents are better for BYD tbh
ElijahBrown69 | a day ago
That's impossible lmao
elebrin | a day ago
Well, the day will come when the big boys simply choose not to sell in the US, because getting through regulatory dealing with all the import/export shit will be not worth it. I'm gonna laugh when the new iPhones and Galaxy phones and stuff don't make it to the US until a year or two after first launch.
There are already a lot of cars that get made that aren't sold in the US. None of Japan's K-cars are legal in the US. We don't get any of Ford's coupes or sedans, except the Mustang. There are very few inexpensive, fun little sports cars on the market (all we have right now is the Miata and the GR86, and 2027 is the last model year for the 86). Most of what Toyota sells are Rav4s and Prius's. The Prius at least is a decent vehicle despite being butt ugly and uninspiring, with a cheap feeling interior. The civic is cool but they aren't bringing in the Type R (the good one) any more. We barely got the Ford Focus ST, possibly the coolest of the hot hatches. I don't know that we got ANY of the ones with Volvo's hot little 5cyl engine.
ensui67 | a day ago
or it just goes to show how they believe their vertical integration will allow them to dominate the market. I doubt they are decoupling and will actually get started on some factories in the US in due time. It's just business. Who wouldnt want some sweet sweet US consumer dollars?
Tresspass | a day ago
If they can do it without Chinese government subsidies then I’ll will applaud them.
normVectorsNotHate | a day ago
AI generated slop
etempleton | a day ago
I don’t think they will be able to do that without becoming much more competent at making ICE engines, which is a much bigger challenge for them than making electric cars.
dalyons | a day ago
What are you talking about? They used to make ICE, and no longer do because they’re smart enough to know 100% ev is the future
etempleton | a day ago
EVs are not ideal for every application or market, so they are not 100 percent the future from a market share perspective. So while they may be positioned to dominate EV sales they really are going to be missing a large portion of the auto market; particularly the lucrative commercial/industrial half. So while they may be very large, other automaker that sells both would likely be able to be larger from a sales volume perspective.
In terms of their ICE development. It was the limiting factor from China dominating earlier. Their ICE engines are decades behind Japan, Germany and even the US.
dalyons | a day ago
i mean, so says you. from my POV i see:
heavy industrial: heavy mining trucks are already becoming EV, see australian mega mines.
commercial last mile deliveries: amazon is rapidly electrifying their whole van fleet, the start stop of deliveries massively favour EVs. commercial vans will become all EV.
short to medium haul trucking: over 50% of truck sales in china are already EV.
long haul trucking: yeah EVs have no solution for this today. Fairly small segment of the overall market though.
So what exactly is left for ICE that is such a sizeable market?
etempleton | a day ago
75 percent of the new car market is ICE. That maybe goes down to 70-65 percent in 5 years. So unless they control near 100 percent of new electric car sales, which they won’t. They will not be the largest car manufacturer.
dalyons | a day ago
i guess we just disagree on the speed of the transition. 2026 data is already predicting >28% EV sales globally. New tech shipping in the next 12mo (semi solid state, cheap sodium batteries+cheaper EVs, ) is going to make consumer EVs more and more attractive from a cost and performance PoV. We're rapidly approaching the tipping point where an EV is cheaper than its equivalent ICE model - once that happens the transition will turn exponential. in 5 years we'll be way over 50% imo
etempleton | a day ago
That assumes two things that are unlikely:
The car industry is very competitive and a bit like fashion. People don’t drive a Mercedes or BMW because it is significantly better than a Toyota, they drive it because it is a status symbol, so the idea one company can suddenly capture the whole market is a bit naive.
dalyons | a day ago
Overall global EV sales share continues to grow 25% share in 25, 28% share in 26. With no real sign of slowing down.
JD predicts linear growth numbers for the next few years - even on their conservative estimates that dont take into account new tech we're hitting 50% by ~2032.
China ev total sales are down because their whole car market sales are down.
Unless you have any evidence to suggest the global ev share growth is declining, im going to believe the professional modelers.
So, they're already at half toyotas share. Toyotas share will decline as the ICE sales pool rapidly shrinks unless they can make some decent cheap EVs, making it easier to catch them.
Im not saying its guaranteed but its very possible. Whoever first ships EVs that are cheaper than their ICE counterpart is going to win a massive chunk of the world. Its far more likely thats BYD than stuck-in-the-past toyota.
quatroquatro0 | a day ago
Already happening in Indonesia with about 300 million population. Traditional japanese carmakers used to rule but their sales have dropped significantly since BYD came in. And it looks like the same is happening in the rest of SEA.
Really doesn't help that brands like Toyota are charging premium prices for their EVs which most people won't bother buying when they can get similar quality for cheaper from BYD.
HoustonAdventure | a day ago
Nope. Toyota continue to rule Indonesia market. Kijang is 6x BYD sales and growing.
vegeful | a day ago
Your gov not gonna charge import tax on that?
[OP] cambeiu | a day ago
China's BYD to complete $1 billion Indonesia plant by year-end
Treewithatea | a day ago
I know Toyota is behind in the EV game but how exactly do you compete against BYD who flood the world market with dumping prices? BYDs goal is to eliminate as much competition as possible and then they will raise prices and make their money when no competition is left.
NavyDean | a day ago
America hasn't been able to compete in the automotive industry since the 1980's without protectionism, threats and tariffs.
Canada will gladly shed their grifting American automobile companies that constantly ask for more funds, bail outs and protectionism if BYD brings manufacturing or assembly over.
303uru | a day ago
Hilariously, protectionism, largely from the Trump admin, is what's going to do them in. Weakening the transition to EVs in the US market has made US manufactures non-player in the world market.
dust4ngel | a day ago
> Hilariously, protectionism, largely from the Trump admin, is what's going to do them in.
the defensible part of capitalism is markets, but capitalism, especially american capitalism, hates markets with the fury of 1000 suns. so we get this shitty capitalism where nobody is able to compete because they've been spending all of their money trying to eliminate market competition.
[OP] cambeiu | a day ago
This is not about American automakers, but about the declining relevance of the US consumer market.
angrysquirrel777 | a day ago
Besides one companies internal claims can you prove this? I don't believe that US consumer demand is slowing and it is still the largest in the world by a long shot.
VeganBaguette | a day ago
26-30 millions new vehicles / year in China (of which 16 millions electric)
15-16 millions new vehicles / year in the USA (of which 1.5 millions electric)
13 millions new vehicles / year in Europe (about 3 millions electric)
In a decade or two every country but the USA will be exclusively buying electric cars.
cogman10 | a day ago
So funnily enough, it is actually the ending of the protectionism which made US automakers uncompetitive.
There used to be requirements on the parts for US auto which forced manufacturers to make those parts locally. But the US auto-industry is highly unionized, which is something both political parties have hated.
So what happened? The US reduced regulations protecting local workers in favor of allowing the big auto manufacturers to offshore large portions of their car production.
That offshoring is exactly what ultimately enabled offshore auto manufacturers to start thriving. When china is already making like 90% of the parts, it makes sense they could decide the just take the 10% and start producing full cars.
The US policy of protecting just the corporate offices and not the US workers is what's caused US auto to be a joke globally. We outsourced all of our experience and expertise and now we are paying the price.
flt1 | a day ago
US has ~4% of world population. So not that difficult on paper as rest of the world move toward the future w/o the US. Or rather US decides to isolate itself from rest of the world.
dusjanbe | a day ago
US GDP is larger than the 150 countries at the bottom combined. Then entire GDP of ASEAN would be that of California.
Chinese phones absolutely dominate in volumes for example but Apple has more revenue and profit than all Chinese brands combined.
While BYD can overtake Toyota in volume. Toyota will have more profits than all Chinese brands combined and 2025 was a good year for them despite all the competition from China.
dripboi-store | a day ago
Don’t see how that’s a good thing for consumers
dust4ngel | a day ago
> US has ~4% of world population
which means americans with any money to spend is ~0.4% of the world population.
NoSun37 | a day ago
Toyota thought that by taking a more conservative approach in developing EVs, they can develop better and more reliable EVs while protecting its brand image. They aren't rushing like what BYD is doing because if even one poor-quality EV gets released, it damages their reputation. This is a logical and reasonable approach, however, by the time Toyota has developed an affordable/reliable EV, many consumers would have gotten used to the cheaper BYD cars.
They would think "Hey, I've been driving this cheap EV for years now. It doesn't feel as good as a Toyota but I've gotten used to it and it saves me money". Personally, I prefer the more reliable EV, and the real question is, "Is it worth the extra money?". Sometimes, better quality can save you maintenance costs, other times, it makes negligible difference. It is going to be difficult to choose between Toyota or BYD, and BYD is a serious competitor.
lilbitcountry | a day ago
They certainly haven't done this with their large truck platform which has tanked their reputation. It seem when high margins are available for quick profits, all that quality and careful planning stuff goes out the window.
Legitimate-Type4387 | a day ago
The BZ was a flop with wheels falling off when it launched. It wasn’t until the refresh and lowered prices that it became competitive in the N. American market. It’s still completely uncompetitive against newer Chinese EV’s.
So much for taking the conservative approach to avoid poor quality and damaging brand reputation.
Valoneria | a day ago
Subjevtively, it is also one of the least conservative designs, and i dont think there is any of current Toyota EVs that does look nice (except the jointly chinese developed bz3). Ugly, out of date on release, but carried by great financing. I see way too many of these eyesores around
special_edition_5 | a day ago
Seriously, he was talking out of his ass
theactiveaccount | a day ago
If the byd isn't up to US safety regulations, then why are the tariffs necessary?
Valoneria | a day ago
You have to be kidding yourself if you think a Toyota feels that much better, if any at all, to drive than a BYD. I have tried both, and there is a reason i drive a BYD today
Bodoblock | a day ago
Toyota also went all in on hydrogen rather than EVs.
ima_leafonthewind | a day ago
The question is also how reliable the Brand is in supporting their products for decades
If I buy a BYD can I rely on support down the line?
I think that reputation is not there yet (because it's a young and unknown company outside CN) but if BYD is still there in 10 years, then they will have build it
dust4ngel | a day ago
> Toyota thought that by taking a more conservative approach in developing EVs, they can develop better and more reliable EVs while protecting its brand image
they could have spun up another brand like they did with scion to test their EV platforms, and if that all worked out, they could absorb it back into the parent brand, like they did with the scions that survived.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
Kinda obvious. While the US isolates itself China will just take over the rest. Eventually they'll have such scale and lead that US automakers will become limited to their captive market and unable to compete globally.
Bodoblock | a day ago
Yes, but American car manufacturers were shit long beforehand.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
And the other countries will…just allow that? They’re just cool with hollowing out their domestic industries and having increased unemployment?
quatroquatro0 | a day ago
american, japanese and european car companies have been doing the same for decades.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
I don’t understand - what American car companies have been doing this for decades? When has a single company “taken over the rest of the countries” like that to the point that we refer to them as their country name (“China”) and not as the company?
Ahoramaster | a day ago
Well BYD is just the one with the biggest name. There's loads of Chinese brands. Omada, Jaecoo, Leap motor, Great wall motors, MG, Polestar, XPeng, BYD
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Sure but as this very thread pointed out (and did so happily), it’s “China” that is taking over, which is an apropos moniker, since they’re all heavily state involved.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
BYD is private.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Lmao sure.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
It is a fact.
Meanwhile basically all US car companies got bailed out by the US government.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
No it really isn’t. This is like saying Fannie Mae is private.
At least try to find a new slant instead of this dumb trope.
[OP] cambeiu | a day ago
China’s Car Brands Move From Import Boom To Factory Takeover In Brazil
Also, EV are mechanically much simpler, so they don't employ nearly as many people in the assembly lines anyways. That is as true for Chinese EVs and Western ones.
The idea of the auto industry as a major driver of employment is dying, Chinese EVs or not.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
I’m still not understanding - that profit doesnt go back into the country so it’s still being siphoned off to go to China.
Unless BYD is completely divesting from its Brazilian franchise?
[OP] cambeiu | a day ago
Ford, GM, Audi, Renault, FIAT, Toyota and Honda all have factories in Brazil sending profit back to their respective home countries. Same is true for Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Africa, Morocco, Thailand, Spain, Eastern Europe, Turkey and many other places.
China is taking over those markets.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Right….those aren’t “state operated heavily subsidized” car companies that “took over the rest”.
You’ve even dropped the corporate language and just say “China will take over those markets”.
What’s confusing to you about my question?
[OP] cambeiu | a day ago
What difference does it make to any of the countries I listed if the car sale profit in their market goes to China or to Germany? Why would they prefer WV over BYD?
To any of them, BYD being state subsidized or not is utterly irrelevant.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
No, we generally don’t celebrate a single company as a proxy for an entire country “taking over” another country. Thats what the “British east India corporation” was.
Again, what exactly is confusing you?
EducationalMilk7829 | a day ago
Sorry, no one in Brazil cares about any of that. If anything we're really happy that the traditional car companies who for so many years have exploited the domestic car market with their exorbitant pricing are gettting pounded. People just want their cheap EVs.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Sure - I have no doubt that some Brazilians are fine with being a Chinese colony and used as a dumping ground for exports over time, tolerating the secularly high unemployment that creates in the long run.
I’m simply wondering if every other country outside of the US is. I’m strongly guessing no.
reggionh | a day ago
it's "taking over" the car market of a country bro, not "taking over" a country. drama much.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
The entire thing is being posted in geopolitical terms in this very thread.
So, uh, why are they doing that bro?
You partisans tell on yourselves way too easily nowadays lmao.
vegeful | a day ago
Taking over mean u will harm the nation car sector. U will hit many cake. Unless u can be the replacement and give your profit to the local, you will face increasw import duty, get call dumping.
No sane gov will do that.
Radiant_Radio_8681 | a day ago
The profit from car factories in developing countries has ALWAYS gone back to the headquarters in the host country. What’s the difference if that factory is American owned, Chinese owned, or Japanese owned?
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Because one is a proxy for the state and the others are not?
When you make a deal with Apple, it’s not the US government. When you make a deal with BYD, it IS the CCP.
Radiant_Radio_8681 | a day ago
Functionally for Brazil, it’s the same thing. Profits are taken out of the country. Also, if you look at the history of Latin America, very often multinational businesses work closely with the US government as well.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Sure but the actual ownership of all Chinese companies (specifically their board governance) have members of the CCP mandated to be on it.
This is like saying the US army with a mandated Republican Party overseer is going to sell your civilians cars and help deindustrialize your country.
Radiant_Radio_8681 | a day ago
In all practicality, how what is the difference between a Chinese company having members of the government on their board and an US company employing lobbyists that shape US foreign policy on their board?
Why are you saying China is deindustrializing Brazil? They’ve actually been aiding them to industrialize.
resuwreckoning | 22 hours ago
One is entirely under the direction of Chinese government agents and its foreign policy interests.
The second is routinely doing things solely for shareholder interest to the point where it’s a meme that it’s often AGAINST US foreign policy interests.
What’s confusing lmao?
And why are you confused about deindustrialization? Their goal is very much trying to sell TO them, not employ them.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
Well it's happening. For every country that engaged in protectionism another country will open it's market because they want Chinese cars which are cheaper and better.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Sure and those that do will soon face electoral issues because foreign state sponsored take overs of domestic industries generally leads to secular unemployment and unrest.
We know this because China herself didn’t allow it in her own market without enormous concessions on ownership, tech transfer, and the like.
That too will happen regardless of how much Reddit glazes China for literally anything it does ever.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
Not all countries have domestic car industries. China will gobble up the rest whether Germany or Japan likes it or not.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Most countries absolutely do have domestic industries that create parts for cars.
Your joyous declarations of Chinese dominance in all things as a Chinese partisan are premature (which is typical for you folks) - I bet protectionism rises in tandem in these countries and you’ll be wearing a shocked pikachu face (imported from Japan) when it happens.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
China is the pre-eminent leader in EVs and battery tech. No amount of protectionism is going to unwind the mega trend of electrification.
You think they won't follow the same path as Korea and Japan.
It's not about joy. It's about reality. Protectionism without progress leads to regression and museum culture. If Japan doesn't get it's act together it will lose market after market to Chinese cars which are technologically superior and cheaper.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Yes, it’s always reality that China is going to endlessly win and others should just let it happen.
Naturally lmao.
This sub may glaze you for saying that but the electoral constituents of most of those countries won’t when you deindustrialize them and they have no jobs.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
Well China doesn't owe them anything and it was America that deindustrialised itself. It was US captains of industry who outsourced their industries for more profits and shareholder returns.
China doesn't owe any of these countries anything. It's job is to look after it's own people.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
I mean nobody owes China anything in equal measure and you’re going to soon see that lmao.
krazyboi | a day ago
You know all of Asia hates china right...
Bodoblock | a day ago
They love BYD just fine though.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
You present as fact an opinion wrapped in shit.
krazyboi | a day ago
It's a strong opinion held by a lot of asian countries. South Korea has a tense relationship with China because they still trade with North Korea and they're strong allies with the US.
Japan and China have always been neck and neck with China taking the lead in recent years.
Taiwan is afraid China will attack them.
Korea and Japan buy their own country's cars because of nationalism, they have the means to make EVs (while their ICE and hybrid cars are demonstrably better) and also it's just more efficient when every repairman knows the most commonly sold cars.
South east asia just buys the cars available to them.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
Japan, Taiwan and Korea are vassal states. You casually dismiss most of Asia as just buying what's available to them. It's idiotic.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Lmao “vassal states” - you really are a transparent shill.
Ahoramaster | a day ago
You don't know what a shill is.
What else would you call states who host US military bases following their conquest post WW2 / cold war?
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Sure I do - we need merely read your comments lmao?
Ahoramaster | a day ago
Ok bro. Your opinion is not reality. It's just an opinion, a dumb one, but still just an opinion.
CertainCertainties | a day ago
It's easier now for an export-driven company to make money by ignoring the US market, as many there have a low disposable income.
The purchasing power of ordinary Americans is falling while that of many in developing countries is rising. As of February 2026 (according to Statista), 50% of the population own just 2.5% of the net worth of the country. One percent own 31.7%, and 10% own 68%.
So why bend over backwards to sell affordable EVs into 20% of the global market where most customers don't have much money and a predatory system of dealerships sits between the manufacturer and the customer trying to screw consumers at every turn? Europe, Latin America, South-East Asia, and Australia combined have way more people with money in their pocket for the products BYD sells.
pmacdon1 | a day ago
Lol. USA has the highest or close to the highest disposable income in the world. Not sure where you are getting your information from
Legitimate-Type4387 | a day ago
You can tell just how much disposable income that bottom 50% has by the fact that they own literally nothing or even less than nothing. /s
ResponsibleClock9289 | a day ago
Why do you comment in an economics subreddit if you just genuinely have no idea what you are talking about?
Acceptable_Dot_1248 | a day ago
Dude, you have no idea what you’re talking about. Median new can sale price in the US market is $40k and there are 16-17 million sales annually.
CertainCertainties | a day ago
So about half of China, which sells 34 million annually.
Acceptable_Dot_1248 | a day ago
The median price of new car sales in China is around $23K. There’s far less profit (actually a lot of these sales are likely at a loss) in the Chinese market than the US. Most Chinese auto companies are losing money.
Alone-Supermarket-98 | a day ago
Gaining market share through chinese government subsidized pricing is entirely a different matter than gaining brand loyalty for quality and dependability. Toyota built a reputation through meticulous quality, BYD through government manipulation.
BYD has traditionally been a battery maker and their vehicles offer a number of bells and whistles, but suffer from being glitchy and spotty service. The chinese government whines and cries for markets to open for their vehicles exports, but closes off their own domestic markets to foreign competition in every way possible. They do not practice fair trade.
Make no mistake that chinese control of any industry is eventually used as a form of extortion for their government to promote their geopolitical agenda. Opening a domestic market to chinese subsidized imports of autos is weakening your cou trus domestic industry base.
303uru | a day ago
You say all of this as if US auto manufacturers aren't propped up almost entirely by the US taxpayer. Trump literally gets on TV and cries about BYD and countries needing to buy US autos. I don't agree with either and think consumers are getting worked over in the end, but pretending China is evil when the US does the exact same shit is laughable.
tpounds0 | a day ago
> Make no mistake that chinese control of any industry is eventually used as a form of extortion for their government to promote their geopolitical agenda.
The US via Trump has cut off Visa/Mastercard access to foreign judges he personally disagrees with.
Any monopolistic company is bad.
VeganBaguette | a day ago
Yeah since a french judge have been cut of from Visa/Mastercard I've changed my debit card to avoid them.
Retired-Yam8988 | a day ago
Legacy automakers are cooked - my thesis since about 2017 when I dumped 30k into TSLA and paid off a house and more from it in 2020. Thank you Elon
303uru | a day ago
You got lucky on a meme stock, Tesla can be lumped right in with US manufacturers who will succumb to BYD.
Retired-Yam8988 | a day ago
I suppose it was luck but I bought it right after I test drove and ordered my Model X. Back then they were really quite different than other cars. China has definitely caught up and is now gonna destroy the legacy makers and most likely Tesla too
303uru | 22 hours ago
I don’t disagree, I’m a model 3 owner. Have you driven a BYD? I have in Europe a few times and for the asking price they’re incredible.
Retired-Yam8988 | 22 hours ago
Have been in them and for sure they’re good cars (can’t speak to longevity though). I figured the cost is because they’ve been subsidized and operate at thin margins to capture market share
Ok-Juggernaut-2190 | a day ago
till big countries with cheap market like India doesn’t open there market with EU and America it will be a very temporary boom like there smartphones every year a company changes and loses it market
ImpressiveLong5558 | a day ago
Many years ago, all multinational companies were doing everything they could to enter the Chinese market, because they thought Chinese market is the future. If they had not did it, CEOs would be blamed for losing the future of the companies. Nowadays, less and less multinational companies care about Chinese market anymore, because they can still be the largest companies in their industries without Chinese market anymore. Chinese market is very national protective for decades and foreign companies cannot make money nowadays. However, nobody in the sub blamed Chinese government for this. When other countries did the same, everyone blamed them. I want to say good luck to BYD. U.S. market is very profitable. Companies can ditch Chinese market right now because it is almost not profitable. I hope BYD will not be bankrupt in the future soon like the once largest Chinese building company Evergrande Group because of the huge debts.
GrinchForest | a day ago
I think it is impossible, not without US market.
And it is not just about the population, which is huge. It is about US market which is obsessed with the cars.
While Europe and Asia are more focused on trains, planes or other transport projects which will limit the car transport. Also, it is absolutely normal for any citizen of these continent to not have a car, while american mindset is have at least one or two.
Acceptable_Dot_1248 | a day ago
The BYD hype train keeps on going. Yup, the math is not mathing. Plus, outside Europe and North America and a few other countries we are talking about very low average incomes. In many countries, the cheapest BYD is already more expensive than annual incomes. Not much of a market there. I also doubt they have that much more room to grow in China. There’s only so many people willing to buy a BYD in any place.
CertainCertainties | a day ago
The idea that fast-growing regions like South-East Asia are populated by penniless peasants who can't afford a $US15,000 car from BYD is absurd.
You sound very, very old and the world has changed exponentially since the 1950s and 1960s stereotypes that populate your brain. Europe and the US make up about 13% of the world's population. If you combine Europe, Latin America, Africa, Oceania and South-East Asia car sales that dwarfs the US. China crushes it, and that's not even mentioning Japan, Korea and the emerging massive market of India.
Acceptable_Dot_1248 | a day ago
SEA incomes are very low overall, but you are looking at where the people are, not where the sales are. There’s about 95 million car sales annually. 17 are in US, 12-13 are in Europe. That’s 1/3 of the market. Japan and Korea are 6 million together. India is another 5 million. China is 34 million, so that’s another 1/3 roughly. If you add up these numbers, we are already up to 75 million sales, so the rest of the world combined is about 20 million, right? Let’s just say that the US, Japan, Korea, Germany, France won’t buy any BYD cars, because they largely favor their domestic companies. I highly doubt India will just let BYD in to flood their market with imports. They already have the Chinese market, so to surpass Toyota they’ll need to gain market share from the remaining 20 million roughly, right? They’d need to gain something like 5 million sales (25% market share!) out of these 20 million to make up for Toyota’s lead. That’s not going to happen. Remember that Toyota is highly profitable and has a lot of room to lower prices if they see their market share erode. Obviously these are rough numbers, but it goes to show the scale needed. It doesn’t help BYD’s case that the Chinese market is tanking currently.
GrinchForest | a day ago
This plus public transport as Asia and Europe are developing it and many citizens will not need a car to get somewhere. They will simply use train, plane or ship, so car markets there will shrink. While US doesn't have such mentality, so the car market will be still the same.
Acceptable_Dot_1248 | a day ago
These are very densely populated areas where parking is often either non-existent or comes at a premium. Then, you have the charging aspect, where it’s not all that convenient for apartment dwellers. In the US, parking is usually free and plentiful and most people (especially ones that buy EVs) live in single family homes with garages. Very different worlds and experiences.
dalyons | a day ago
China is over 50% ev sales. Vietnam is 45% and rising. Tell me again how these dense Asian countries can’t use EVs?
omahawizard | a day ago
“Made in China” is synonymous with cheap, temporary products.
If there’s one thing I know, it’s how often someone needs to pound their Chinese chest on this sub, lol, saying China is supreme. Ok buddy, let’s a give “carnewschina.com” the respect it deserves, nada, lol
303uru | a day ago
>“Made in China” is synonymous with cheap, temporary products.
What is this, 1990? In reality, China has the best tooling, best trained factory workforce and most efficient supply chains in the world. You can't even find people in the US to setup and tool a factory, I've tried.
OlympicAnalEater | a day ago
Tesla and America cars quality are no better.
PointmanW | a day ago
it's the 2020s, perception of Chinese quality is much better now, have you been in cryo sleep for 20 years?
dalyons | a day ago
this is a very out of date take. They have most of the highest quality manufacturing in the world now. Yes, they also manufacture cheap crap but they also do top end now too.
Lemp_Triscuit11 | a day ago
> “Made in China” is synonymous with cheap, temporary products.
Just because your grandad said that doesn't mean it's necessarily true, especially in 2026