Oil prices rise after Saudi Arabia shut down critical pipeline that bypasses Strait of Hormuz

1212 points by One-Emu-1103 15 hours ago on reddit | 92 comments

james_the_wanderer | 15 hours ago

Some of us have been waiting for this since social media (eww) broke the news in the wee hours of Friday morning (EST). The confirmation not occuring until just after 3pm EST was...interesting.

Even now, dissembling seems like a hamfisted PR move.

AssumptionLive2246 | 13 hours ago

Yes the market was very muted, and oil down … it was very odd.

Easy_Fee9781 | 12 hours ago

I think the market has become almost numb to the volatility created by Trump’s big fat mouth, writing checks that his butt can’t cash. The rest of the world is getting used to it the same way we have. People don’t even react anymore when the US president talks about using a nuclear weapon. He’s normalized all this dysfunctional behavior, and just completely managed to screw up EVERYTHING in a matter of a year and a half, and it’s not stuff that we’ll be able to just fix. The damage he’s done to our military, relationships with our allies, turning Americans against each other, and constantly saying our elections are being rigged. These things will take decades, to fix, if ever.

kaprixiouz | 8 hours ago

I wish that were the case.

The algorithmic engines that power much of the stock trading clearly gave heavy weight to what the Orange Mussolini was saying. And, in traditional times, understandably so. "Yes, we hit back because it felt impossible not to.. but peace is on the horizon" coming from pretty much any prior POTUS would and should carry a lot of weight. The algorithms, in this case, unfortunately believed the world's most prolific pathological liar repeatedly.

SizzlingSpit | 11 hours ago

Yeah, it's insane. we're past impeachments and assassinations. Mind aswell start learning Chinese.

catchfish | 6 hours ago

Bone Apple Tea

anchorwind | 6 hours ago

Might as well?

Xeynon | 13 hours ago

The market has been detached from reality for awhile now.

Counterpoint-4 | 7 hours ago

Another price hike that piles more pain on the poor - Trump hasn't one to give.

FunGeologist218 | 2 hours ago

Yet everyone during Biden was “gas prices are so high” when that shit was 3.60

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 15 hours ago

The single most important pipeline in global oil trade is offline, and the clock on the world's fuel reserves is measured in days. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which normally routes around 4 million barrels per day from the kingdom's eastern oilfields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was shut down over the weekend after Houthi strikes hit Saudi infrastructure. That line alone carries roughly 4% of global supply. Stocks already sitting at Yanbu can keep tankers loading for only 5 to 7 days, with Egypt's Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir terminals adding just a few more days of buffer. One source told Reuters repairs could take five to six weeks.

If the pipeline stays down through October and crude retests the $138 April peak, the pump price does not stay in the low $4s.

What to Watch in the Next Two Weeks

The specific signal is a Saudi Aramco or energy ministry statement confirming either a partial restart or a fixed timeline. Silence past day seven, when Yanbu's tank stocks run dry, tells markets the outage is real and open-ended. Watch for two follow-ons: an emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve release (the SPR sat at 243.5 million barrels in recent quarters, well below its historical level), and any OPEC+ statement on unwinding voluntary cuts. If neither arrives before the Yanbu tanks empty, $4.31 gasoline will look cheap by Halloween.

DrFortuitous | 3 hours ago

It's a good way to test the waters for our Worlds future where no crude exists and only renewable energy innovation needs to step up...

FunGeologist218 | 2 hours ago

That is true. We should already be on renewable energy n resources but maybe this will have everyone get there shit together

Distinct-Swing-5802 | 4 hours ago

Get a life

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 15 hours ago

Points

  • The Saudis closed the East-West pipeline after drones launched from Iraq damaged it. Riyadh has not disclosed how badly it is damaged or how long it will stay closed.
  • The pipeline, which can carry 7 million barrels per day, has played a key role in easing the severe oil supply disruption triggered by the Iran war.
  • A diplomatic meeting between Iran and the Gulf Arab states to discuss the situation in Hormuz was abruptly postponed after the pipeline attack.

Shmeepsheep | 15 hours ago

Just to add, there was released satellite imagery of the pumping station. Its one giant charred mess in the photo

Xeynon | 13 hours ago

Yeah it's completely FUBAR. Has to be rebuilt from scratch and spare parts are apparently in short supply. And there's nothing to stop the Iranians or their allies from hitting it again and undoing any progress.

im-ba | 11 hours ago

They could double tap it, too, killing any skilled laborers and engineers attempting to rebuild the site. I wouldn't want to attempt it until some sort of treaty or security guarantees could be established.

Xeynon | 7 hours ago

Yep. I would be shocked if they didn't try. I think "the pipeline will be repaired in 4-6 weeks" is the new "the Strait will reopen by the beginning of June".

Delicious-Square | an hour ago

No one said which June it would reopen in…

decomposition_ | an hour ago

I think if that happens Saudi Arabia will probably launch direct attacks on Iran which will even further inflame the entire conflict

Thanks, added that one to my Bingo card

Sonamdrukpa | an hour ago

Fun fact: if you run out of storage and have to shut in an oil well, restarting it is a difficult and expensive process and the well flow may be permanently decreased!

JamesLahey08 | 14 hours ago

You said how long repairs could take in the post then commented that no repair timeline was given?

NewCelebration2850 | an hour ago

And yet asleep while the Houthis takes over Islands in the read sea? Hello?

kaspar42 | 11 hours ago

> The Saudis closed the East-West pipeline after drones launched from Iraq damaged it.

You mean Iran?

aintmesum1else | 9 hours ago

No...they mean Iraq and Houthi rebels.

Xeynon | 13 hours ago

The pipeline going offline will take an additional ~4 million BPD of oil production offline. That's 4% of global daily consumption. This of course being partially in addition to the throughput that's been lost from Hormuz and partially in substitution of it. And the word is it will be a matter of months at least before repairs are completed because multiple pumping stations were destroyed.

SPRs were already nearing depletion and now China is starting to buy again. It's going to get very, very rough very, very soon.

emp-sup-bry | 7 hours ago

All in time for heating oil season

InsertCleverNickHere | 7 hours ago

And the "beauty" of climate change is that you can get both hotter summers and colder winters! Thanks, Republican shitstains!

Extreme_Artist3218 | 14 hours ago

Probably a dumb question but how bad will things get?

If I recall even if local supply isn’t affected oil prices go up for everyone because of there’s less total oil and the more scarce supply the higher value, so gasoline and more importantly diesel which is central to logistics will skyrocket internationally.

Cost of living crisis is gonna get a lot worse isn’t it…

TheGoldenMonkey | 8 hours ago

> Cost of living crisis is gonna get a lot worse isn’t it…

Buckle up.

Affectionate_One_700 | 13 hours ago

> how bad will things get?

Well, that depends on your point of view.

The oil companies have record profits, and I imagine most defense contractors will for decades.

Extreme_Artist3218 | 11 hours ago

I’m more concerned about food, I know oil companies etc are gonna be fat and happy but with diesel going up food is gonna go up sooner or later for everyone

Affectionate_One_700 | 11 hours ago

As a proportion of income, Americans pay much less for food than most people do.

Since the start of the wars in Ukraine and Iran, the price of food (and cooking oil/gas) already has gone up for much of the world.

Extreme_Artist3218 | 11 hours ago

I’m thankfully not American so I know from experience how bad food pricing already is in Europe. If it’s this bad here already it’s probably gonna get a lot worse because of the pipeline and shipping lane being closed?

Ateist | 13 hours ago

Consider that pipeline to be dead till Saudies make peace with Iran/Yemen: repairs would take six weeks and you can expect repeat if the pipeline is operating again.

SeaworthinessDry269 | 9 hours ago

I'd they don't hit it during repair, I mean there is a massive target written hit here for massive effect. They could send a few drones here and there to make the work takes way longer.

Eudaimonics | 7 hours ago

There’s some easy and obvious things we can do to help decrease demand on our end.

Foremost is having companies allow workers to work from home again.

States could offer rebates for e-bikes and alternative forms of transportation.

If it’s a bloodbath in November for Republicans, the New Democrat led House and Senate could possibly drum up enough support to pass new subsidies/rebates for EVs, e-bikes and charging stations that are Veto proof.

Funny, but the worst things get, the faster we’re going to transition to greener technology. The technology is finally there to support the market. Of course that won’t happen overnight but in 5-10 years we can make a ton of progress.

Even if just 10-20% of people switch to public transportation or green alternatives, that would help keep gas prices in check. Everyone would benefit from this even if you want to keep driving your gas guzzler.

Extreme_Artist3218 | 7 hours ago

I hope so, I’m not American but that orange fuck has screwed pretty much everyone over. Already seen food prices go up since the start of his little ‘incursion’

Eudaimonics | 7 hours ago

Food prices and everything that’s transported by trucks and diesel trains will keep going up in price.

Logistic companies also have the option to switch over to EVs, which will take a long time but become an attractive option.

snoogins355 | 4 hours ago

I've owned e-bikes for 7 years and 8k+ miles. It's a great way to get around. There are limits but it's so nice. Turn down the assist and you get a good workout. You can't be on your phone, so you just live in the moment. You can be on your phone but you'll crash...

Eudaimonics | 3 hours ago

Seriously, the average commute in the US is 14 miles, very doable on e-bike.

Checktheusernombre | 2 hours ago

I'd love to ebike to work but I'd likely get killed on the main road there that is a two lane road with no space for bikes that people do 50mph on. We need infrastructure investments too

Eudaimonics | 2 hours ago

Sure, but the more the demand the more pressure there is to build the infrastructure.

artisanrox | 4 hours ago

We can't do any of that, that's socialism.

/s

Eudaimonics | 3 hours ago

But we can hand out $5,000 checks. Dumbest timeline.

Key-Seaworthiness227 | 13 hours ago

But at least we are winning!

snoogins355 | 4 hours ago

Gunna be real interesting if MAGA turns on Trump. Crazy gas prices would probably do it at $5/gallon. And they own a lot of REDDIT REDACTED

MonsieurPF | 13 hours ago

And the hideous thing is , people get "used" to it and then there is no incentive to ever lower the cost again. Its enraging when you can only see, and know, things are going to get worse and worse

John-AtWork | 6 hours ago

I see these stupid truck owners spending half their paycheck on fuel and I gotta just shake my head.

snoogins355 | 4 hours ago

Global market. Everyone bids on the goods while supply goes down.

Not good

cash_flagg | an hour ago

Not a dumb question at all. If I’ve learned anything it’s that the oil companies will raise prices if a leaf falls. Or a cloud passes. You think they’re going to miss out on all this angst and not rake in profits? Bastards. I’m stressed about home heating oil this winter too.

BigTimeRaptor | 12 hours ago

Its starting to look like we might be back to odd or even license plates again. Waiting on gas station lines just like we had to do during the gasoline shortage in the 70's.

If your cars license plate # ended with an even number you could only get gas on even numbered dates and the same went for odd number ending plates, you could only gas up on odd dates.

There were long lines and gas stations routinely ran out of gas and were closed. Some still had to wait in line because they ran out of gas, many were pushing their cars in line. Some were stuck there waiting for a fuel truck delivery. Everything ground to a halt.

alkbch | 11 hours ago

What if you license plate didn’t have numbers?

BigTimeRaptor | 7 hours ago

No worries they had you covered also, lettered plates were designated as odd# plates.

InsertCleverNickHere | 7 hours ago

Look, ASSMAN, you knew this could happen when you bought that coveted plate. Back of the line for you!

Eudaimonics | 7 hours ago

I also think we’ll see a huge uptick in EV and e-bike sales. You’ll see a lot more people commute by those annoying scooters.

Also, eventually companies will allow their workers to WFH again.

These weren’t viable options in the 70s.

snoogins355 | 3 hours ago

I am surprised how many people are speeding everywhere. Was more fuel to the next red light or traffic. Going 20, even 30mph over the speedlimit on the highway adds up

GhostReddit | 2 hours ago

People will bemoan the price of gas but the biggest evidence that it doesn't matter is that it doesn't really change their habits at all.

The best selling cars are big trucks, people don't carpool, and they speed. They don't care about what they're spending on gas because there are plenty of ways they already could have reduced it, they just want to bitch.

HeadPush223 | 58 minutes ago

That actually has changed before. Near the end of the Bush years and all through Obama's presidency the popularity of SUVs plummeted due to persistent high gas costs, while compact and sub-compact hatchbacks started dominating like the Honda Fit and Hybrids like the Toyota Prius. SUVs didn't become popular again until gas prices eased, and hybrid options like the Toyota RAV-4 and Honda CR-V became available. We could easily go through something similar here were smaller, more efficient cars become popular while gas-hungry ICE SUVs are left behind again.

GhostReddit | 8 minutes ago

We could, but I don't see that trend repeating for a while, I think these things were less tied up in identity and that weird righteousness that was less the case before. The whole issue of global warming/climate change was also a hotter issue back then, now it seems to have mostly gone away and nobody gives a shit as evidenced by the complete capitulation of government policy to the AI datacenter buildout everywhere and return to office even though keeping remote work saved millions of barrels of oil.

082426grateful | 4 hours ago

I’ve heard about that time, and wondering how it would be enforced? We had full service stations across America back in those days, but not as prevalent now (aside from Nee Jersey and maybe some other places).

We gonna put flock cameras on every gas pump now? Alter the programming on the self service, pay at the pump keyboards to request a tag number be input? Hire a bunch of attendants to come out and monitor pumps?

I don’t see how it’s possible to have this kind of fuel rationing done by tag number. What I could see is just limits on max fuel purchased at a time. 8 gallons. 10 gallons, so on.

And some people are going to be coming up a lot of gas pumps, with their poor fuel efficiency habits.

aurelorba | 7 hours ago

Not really. There's still plenty of oil production in the western hemisphere to supply all the regional needs. Of course the price is fungible so you will be paying more for it, but the supply will be there - unless Trump insists the US doesn't need the 60% of oil imported from Canada.

Ashattackyo | 5 hours ago

Listen, my FRTFACE plate should get front of the line. I’m doing a public service by sharing laughs 😂

Baudoinia | 6 hours ago

He's stupid enough to not rule anything out.

deraser | 15 hours ago

So are we winning the not war that was not started because our stupid president….I mean “leader” didn’t consider that it should not be a thing we should do…or am I missing something?

Alarmed-Lead-7005 | 14 hours ago

the leader with the plan fired everyone who said it was a stupid idea and what would happen. He hired yes people who stand to make a profit with his dumb ideas. Look where we are now, winning everything.

Key-Art-7802 | 14 hours ago

I'm tired of winning.

shewel_item | 9 hours ago

yeah, there's a few things you're missing, but namely it wasn't Iran who attacked the not pipeline that is stopping the stupid pipeline from being used.. does that make sense?

Baudoinia | 6 hours ago

What you wrote? No reread it.

shewel_item | 5 hours ago

simplified version: Iran did not attack the Saudi Arabian pipeline

rhetorical question: is there any relevant information missing in saying that

Curiousier11 | 5 hours ago

Iranian proxies attacked the pipeline. Houthi’s are funded by Iran, and certainly affiliated. I’m sure we’ll strike at them again. Even Yemen is speaking of attacks.

The problem with all of this is it is getting much harder to protect against all the groups who can build weapons and damage infrastructure.

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 15 hours ago

besides the fact that they rigged the election?

alkbch | 11 hours ago

No, ”they” didn’t.

emp-sup-bry | 7 hours ago

Do you consider closing polling locations rigging? What if those locations that were closed followed a pattern?

What about dropping actively registered voters right before elections with late to no notice?

Republicans do this constantly. Even if we never learn about any software fuckery, THIS is election rigging. And it’s treasonous. Support for this is anti-American and supporting treason.

NihiloZero | 7 hours ago

It's probably gonna be a big day for all the markets in general. Am I wrong in my understanding that oil and fuel are rather somewhat important to the economy overall? Or does this just mean that everyone everywhere is suddenly going to become wealthier? Market reactions often seem to be rather irrational.

Connect_Raisin_1771 | 4 hours ago

Bull market for sure. The line only goes up and to the right.

As long as it keeps going to the right - when it turns left, THAT is when we have problems

tauceties | 4 hours ago

At least try to find out which countries import from that region and then calculate how much is left over from the 80% bought by China – so much that it significantly affects our prices.

Valuable_Violinist30 | 2 hours ago

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that oil industry and oil producing nations are also in on the 🎃's constant manipulation of the price so that we in the USA get used to gas prices being over$4.50-5.00 per gallon. when it goes below $4.50 American public thinks wow gas is cheap fill up every can and tank. Gas hasn't been cheap since the 1970's. it will NEVER be cheap again. Too bad wages do not keep pace with this volatile commodity. Let's push for a monthly wage adjustment based on price of oil that can never go down. watch how fast that price would tank.

schtickshift | 48 minutes ago

Has the winter crop been planted in the Northern hemisphere yet? If not demand for diesel is going to spike soon. There is also a risk that high diesel prices influence farmers about to plant the next crop.

PaganWizard2112 | 3 hours ago

And yet, people still think that Saudi Arabia, is a "friend" of the USA. I haven't trusted Saudi Arabia since 9/11. Binladen and most of his crew were from Saudi Arabia.