His solution is apparently to take over Hormuz (Iran would never let that happen peacefully), and he says he has someone in mind to replace Mojtaba Khamenei.
Neither of these statements point to the war nearing an end, if anything it will be an entirely new level of escalation.
I claim insider trading. His buddies got butthurt, he said some bullshit, and now they all can make money and sell at the top.
Right and Iran is gonna just peacefully let that happen.
They'll bomb the shit out of the Gulf so that there's nothing to flow through that Strait before they give it up. Hormuz is the one tool they have to cause pain to the West.
Do you actually think Iran is winning or even holding their own? There are numerous reports of IRGC members fleeing, and the units that are staying are not coordinated.
Winning? No. A stalemate/quagmire for US and Isreal? Thats a lot more possible. For the straight of Hormuz, you don’t know coordination, just a few crews to pop out at fling some missions as ships passing by. There’s a lot of mountains to hide in. As for the reports of IRGC member fleeing- maybe that’s true. Assuming it is, where are they fleeing from and fleeing too? Fleeing away from their bases? That’s probably smart if we are bombing the shit out of them, but that doesn’t mean they don’t take their equipment with them nor that they are unarmed and unable to fight. Based on my experience as a vet in our last adventures into that region, lack of coordination doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t hit back.
China has let Iran use their BeiDou nagaviation system and likely providing targeting data. A Chinese Navy Radar ship has been sitting in the Gulf since before the start of the war.
Correct, the world has already witness a nation that’s been preparing for a death to America war for nearly 50 years lose leadership in a day, it’s navy in a few days & give it’s enemies complete air superiority to bomb whatever they want in the same time frame. Another pathetic paper tiger
It was never about winning conventionally though. And even if half of the IRGC were to flee, that would still leave hundreds of thousands of members still available. You would still have to contend with nuisances in the straight for years. Possible sabotage and espionage. So you'll still see lowering traffic through the strait especially since the taking of Iran would be a much more difficult task than taking either Iraq or Afghanistan. A much more intricate and supplied military on the backing of Russian intelligence, the religious zealots that Afghanistan displayed with the same mountainous terrain. Iran doesn't have to win at all, they just have to make it a bigger headache for world economics than we've seen since the first Persian Gulf War and that would be effectively considered a victory. We've seen this play out in Vietnam, Iraq the second time and Afghanistan, especially with a very similar playbook that put the US in an effectively decade long war in Iraq. And while militarily the US wins handily, the middle east is often worse for it and the US economically gets into more debt and the American people longterm become more poor.
The IRGC only has 125-190k based on estimates, so no if they had an exodus they would be in a bad spot, combined with the fact that their air defense is wrecked and their military infrastructure is depleted
You right about the number, I was thinking of the combined number of the basij which is their internal paramilitary force that is under the irgc. Though regardless, it would still mean tens of thousands of irgc still exist with the possibility of commanding of upwards of another 600k members of the basij. though if let's say a 20% of that were to show up, that still would be over 100k extra members. And even without air defense capability and much of their infrastructure, having been to the strait of hormuz myself being shadowed by Iranians during my time in the navy, it would be a massive headache for any freighter to still go through the strait especially with the possibility of drones that don't need complex infrastructure to launch. That would also be extra strain my taxpayers to keep escorts in the strait. Plus throughout the middle east you still tens of thousands of proxies in Lebanon with hezbollah even though they are getting whipped by Israel. You still have the houthis in Yemen. And you still have splinter Iraqi paramilitary forces that are sympathetic towards Iran and funded by Iran before the war. Plus, you still have very vulnerable infrastructure in the gulf that could make it hell for the gulf for example desalination plants. The US and Israel just targeted one in Iran, but they provide a smaller percentage of freshwater to Iran than the ones in other gulf states do that provide anywhere from 40-90% of those countries freshwater supply. And international reports right now also have it that the US and Israeli media aren't telling us the true extent of the damages that are unfolding that have come from Iranian retaliation with some international news outlets saying that multiple US bases are functionally not capable anymore and hundreds of more Americans and Israeli military are casualties than what our media is reporting. So it's probably a mix and average of both at the moment.
I don't understand how people have so quickly forgotten the war in two countries where small, poorly armed, poorly trained, and often badly led fighters kept us busy for ~20 years. No one credible has ever claimed the Iranian conventional forces are a match for the U.S. military, but that's beside the point. A coalition of nations was needed to keep the Red Sea open from Houthi attacks, and even that looks like it might start up again. The Strait of Hormuz is a much harder problem.
Vietnam, iraq, afghanistan. Sounds like all those again doesn't it? They can't win but they will make insurance/security crazy complex so america can't stay and trade can't go through there.
To get a compliant government that while it might not be up to western standards, is at least slightly secular - basically pretty much what the rest of the major Middle East countries have become
Above ground infrastructure. The IRGC live like the dwarves in Lotr for a reason. Their important stuff is 50m underground or literally under a mountain
I don't think you understand what winning is. The NVA and Viet Cong got killed by the score in 'Nam, but holding the battlefield and racking up kills isn't how modern wars are won. The US shellacked the Taliban in conventional warfare and forced them to hole up in the mountains for 20 years because they lacked the strength to force the US out of Kabul, but look who's in control of the country now and who wasted 20 years and trillions of dollars just to suffer the embarrassment of the Afghani army drop their US gifted weapons and flee.
> but holding the battlefield and racking up kills isn't how modern wars are won.
You're right, but I'd even go a step further and say that's not even how most ancient wars were won. The term Pyrrhic Victory come from a greek general who won battle after battle but at so high a cost as to make overall victory worthless. The Romans famously lost to Hannibal time and time again, but shrugged, raised new armies, and went back to fighting. Unless you're literally going scortched Earth and killing everyone in a country, the only way to win a war is to break the enemy's will.
I don’t see them winning but then again I didn’t see the Taliban winning either. Best case scenario we stabilize things for a while before things go off the rails eventually. I’d like to be wrong obviously.
Not good enough. You need a buffer zone with roadblocks and check points. Alternatively you can kill every living soul indiscriminately 50km from the coast to inland, but we are not there yet.
>France, US and allies are launching a mission to clear the strait
Lmao
There is no "clear the strait" with some temporary mission from the air the strait can be closed by one sheepherder with a rpg, thats all it takes to close it, one ship gets struck and insurance companies say fuck off, no insurance for you and boom, strait is closed for all intents and purposes.
You all are under some fantasy spell or something...like theres a human chain of Iranians physically blocking the strait and we just need to go over there and disperse them and everythings good
We would need to physically occupy the area and GOOD fucking luck with that, we dont have the stomach to do that and maintain it
And this shit trumo is saying like were going to have the navy escort all the tankers and put up government insurance on the product? What are we a fucking taxi service? Uber Oil? Im sure the American people are going to stand for that when these clowns say we cant afford to pass ACA subsidies for the American People but we can afford a Billion dollars a day sending a fucking Carrier Strike Group back and forth through the strait of hormuz to taxi oil tankers and cover their losses when theyre inevitably attacked?
>Redditors might be the least optimistic people on the planet on any issue 😂
Im a realist and i pay attention to geopolitics.
Have you ever seen the strait of hormuz on a map? I think you should go look one up, make sure it has a milage scale and topographical information on it and maybe youll understand how silly it is that they can just "clear the strait"
From a tactical and strategic perspective its militarily trivial to "close" that area to shipping either literally or ostensibly by simply attacking ships as they go through every now and then and having commercial insurance pulled. Imagine a hallway shaped like triangle and youre standing on top of the wall at the point and you have to prevent or damage anything that goes down the hallway lol its a tactical dream position and iran holds the whole one side of the bank.
The Houthis disrupted shipping in far more navigable waters for months and theyre nothing but a ragtag ass militia group....this is a nationstate of a 100M people with military industrial capacity. The only way that area is going to be made safe is to occupy the territory and like i said, good fucking luck with that
You have a lot more faith in the drunken white supremacist leading the operation than I do. Did you forget they fired all the smart people and kept the bootlickers?
You mean the oil from the facilities we're currently blowing up? What oil lol
Thats what people arent realizing, i meant what i said when i said "Death Ground", they are absolutely destroying the country, we are taking out the oil infrastructure and leaving them no way out and no incentive to stop
No, the export facilities, and the actual drilling facilities and infrastructure for that is still fully intact. Not to say the United States could not go after that, but they have not. That would be a major escalation and would affect a lot of other countries like China and destroying the Iran economy would hurt its people
To take over the strait they’d need an ever present air and naval force as well as boots on the ground holding a good piece of territory plus a no man’s land around that. Every time Iran or a proxy got their hands on a missile they’d lob it at the whole setup to disrupt.
Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, etc. have to say (publicly or privately if they must) that they are sick of the Iranian regime’s strangle hold on their major resource. Take the strait, say it’s an international trade route and share the responsibility of keeping it open. Assist with the talks and plan to make Iran a team player in the region. Israel is never going anywhere.
I've been trading since 2012 and I've never seen a market so full of cope. Even a whiff of Trump doing 50% of the insane stuff he says he will do instead of 100% and the market jumps because they hang on his every word.
Rhetorical question: how can "the markets" be this braindead? It's one thing for an inbred hillbilly in Arkansas to believe Trump when he says it's not a war and everything is going great. But these financial institutions have smart people working for them and analyzing actual data. How the hell can they be so easily hoodwinked?
They aren't. It just that there hasn't been this level of overt insider trading and setups before. They just don't feel they need to hide it at all anymore. It's making everything seem completely irrational, because it is. It's just extracting liquidity non stop.
It's not retail investors moving this market, it's high frequency trading that's built on algorithms that, as part of trading analysis, consider news headlines. The headlines post and the algos complete trades before a retail investor's click on their brokerage's buy/sell button even registers to its server.
I mean Trump will absolutely end the war if it hurts gas prices enough. He doesn't have any tangible goals in mind so he can declare victory at any point
Trump comments on war being over soon (lol); https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Also; “Earlier finance ministers from G7 countries met to discuss the energy crisis and decided not to release emergency petrol reserves, but said they “stand ready” to do so.”
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adjoining imagine carpenter spoon simplistic exultant hard-to-find nutty melodic close
People bid up futures over the possibility of the worst case scenario. Now that it's seeming less likely, process are falling, and the people who bid up the price are losing money.
I got crucified for saying it would. People were trading it to the moon like a fucking meme coin. “I’m not selling” bullshiters piled on saying it’s going to 10k this week like seriously fuck off.
Not sure really. the big drop happened more recently. I imagine there will be quite a bit of volatility in the numbers for a while.
Commodities and the like also do seem to be untethered to reality a fair bit. Could also be that Trump is threatening more people with war unless they keep oil going and the like. Who really knows?
Overnight it was over $100 a barrel. Prices are still pretty high and probably go back up. Steep changes usually reverse as quickly as they happen unless I missed something in the news. Even if the war ended now I do not know that Iran opens up things to help the US and other countries in the region are threatening to stop or majorly cut back production too based on the war.
Reflexivity. The market cant crash if everyone thinks its will (and positions themseves as such). Put-call ratio on Friday indicated as much (not too mention the weekend of doom in terms of expectations).
The fact that commodities are so sensitive like this just makes me think that large institutional investors have way too much influence over them, and that really shouldn't be allowed.
Oil is an inelastic good, factories, power stations, cars, always require a certain amount of oil no more no less and it costs a tonne of money to store it. The petrol in your car was probably still under ground just last week.
Banning investing in oil doesn't suddenly make the $1.50/barrel/month storage fee dissapear or make the market more elastic.
The stock market feels so divorced from economic realities and moves solely on vibes and tweets from one guy. I know that JP Morgan has to prognosticate but it feels like this is anyone's guess as to how this will shake out. We're still anticipating 15% tariffs being implemented, right? That gets called off and tariff refunds start going out and we could hit all time highs
There's basically two economies now. The goods/services economy, and the investment economy. They used to be highly intertwined, but they've become increasingly detached due to repeated bouts of Fed stimulus to paper over market losses, which has been more absorbed by the latter, rather than the former. In effect, what it's done is shove those losses onto laborers, the young, and those without assets, so that investment class can be insulated from those losses. And it remains that way as the market has gradually consolidated into fewer and fewer large companies (employers / sources of investment capital), where labor remains divided and so does not have the bargaining power to force parity.
Give it till tomorrow or the next day and it’ll be right back down. This entire year has been back and forth because he makes such chaotic and volatile decisions.
Seems a bit low to me, plus how can anyone really guess when we have no idea how long the war will last or how many sleeper cells/false flags will bring disaster to the States
I guess it would be interesting to see how fluctuations in the price of oil correlate with all that. If there is a tight correlation, and the Strait stays closed, then the impact of the Iran war could be more severe
Mid war money printer is rolling and government spending increases. It’s after the war when the unwinding happens that shit hits the fan as industrial demand craters
10% is like not great but happens all the time. For instance the post Liberation day drop was over 10%, you get a 10% drop in stocks about every 12-18 months.
Also, the Bloomberg article on this is a lot less fear mongery lol: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/jpmorgan-sees-10-correction-in-s-p-500-as-war-risks-build-up?srnd=phx-markets
Bad for stocks? Sure, is JPM calling for a market crash? no lol.
Thanks Trump, thanks republicans, thanks idiot voters who voted for either of those two categories, thanks social media for cooking everyone’s brains, a small honorary thanks to the Democratic Party who could have embraced better candidates and maybe beaten Trump to avoid this but in the end the majority if not all of the thanks goes to Trump
Trump has created a generation of Middle East against the USA - if we get out of this, it is because Iran walks away.!but… expect some terrorism later on - jus facts
I’m getting the sense stock market manipulation is the real reason for bombing Iran. I still have no clue why we would do that otherwise. They keep pump and dumping the stock market, concentrating wealth, and this just seems like another round of it.
Oil started pumping on Friday, when a Qatari official said Oil would rise to $150. Trump reiterated the bombing would be intense on Sunday evening. Oil gaps up Monday, and 6 hrs late the G7 news comes out, with Trump later saying, war is close to over.
I know we're a small % of people following and trading the markets, but the manipulation has been non stop since the Greenland saga in January.
10% from the war alone. Once the job losses kick in, people start defaulting on auto loans, credit cards, and finally mortgages, expect even larger draw downs. And fuck every last business that has helped spur this along by price gouging the fuck out of their customer base.
"The index is restricted to perceptions and does not cover issues like money laundering, tax fraud, or corporate corruption. Some critics argue it can be subjective due to its reliance on perception, and it may not fully capture the nuance of corruption in every country."
2.) You provided an opinion-base website that leaves out some critical metrics of determining true corruption. So it's really not a source. It's an opinion arguing an opinion.
It’s ALL insider trading for panic sellers to sell so his buddies can dip the cost and buy at the lowest point. This has happened several times in the past year and experienced huge surges within the matter of a week.
The administration breeds corruption because nothing is ever done as punishment so unless you plan on retiring this month I wouldn’t worry at all.
They must not have heard the announcement from taco Trump that the war is complete. The US is gonna hang the mission accomplished banner and call it a day, apparently. 😀
Wall Street traders are ill-prepared for an expected sharp 10% plunge in the S&P 500 triggered by Trump’s escalating war in Iran, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk warned Monday, as oil soared past $100 a barrel and risks of stagflation loomed.
Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence at the financial giant, shifted to a “tactically bearish” stance on U.S. stocks.
Such a correction from the index’s peak would drag the S&P down to about 6,270 - a 7% slide from Friday’s close.
They highlighted that it took nearly five months for oil prices to fall under $100 from their peak of nearly $125 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Some institutional idiot pumped Nvidia today. Who could it have been? Maybe…Nvidia? AI is a ponzi scheme with an extra step. Look up Julian Whatley on YouTube. He lays it out simply for the smooth brains like me.
lol they’re issuing call orders for active duty personnel to get ready. This shit isn’t over anytime soon. Just more of Trump trying to let his buddies sell while it’s high.
jpm finally woke up, lol. 10% looks a bit low if the oil price reaches $120 and stays that way. Everyone is betting on a quick recovery, but we can't even make the engines or 5G chips for the defense technology without the minerals that China is currently choking off.
birdie_Sea | a day ago
Oil prices collapse below $84/barrel, now down over -30% since last night’s highs.
What is going on? The oil market is acting like a meme coin.
Is the special military operation over or something?
RichIndependence8930 | a day ago
Apparently the markets are reacting to the G7 emergency oil release and a recent Trump statement saying the war is almost over
imo, its cope
and standard market irrationality
prophishonal | a day ago
His solution is apparently to take over Hormuz (Iran would never let that happen peacefully), and he says he has someone in mind to replace Mojtaba Khamenei.
Neither of these statements point to the war nearing an end, if anything it will be an entirely new level of escalation.
I claim insider trading. His buddies got butthurt, he said some bullshit, and now they all can make money and sell at the top.
Used_Ad6860 | a day ago
France, US and allies are launching a mission to clear the strait
prophishonal | a day ago
Right and Iran is gonna just peacefully let that happen.
They'll bomb the shit out of the Gulf so that there's nothing to flow through that Strait before they give it up. Hormuz is the one tool they have to cause pain to the West.
Used_Ad6860 | a day ago
Do you actually think Iran is winning or even holding their own? There are numerous reports of IRGC members fleeing, and the units that are staying are not coordinated.
PhilosophyEasy71 | 23 hours ago
They just break up into smaller pieces of secretarian groups.
jfc its like nobody opened a history book
strangemedia6 | 23 hours ago
Winning? No. A stalemate/quagmire for US and Isreal? Thats a lot more possible. For the straight of Hormuz, you don’t know coordination, just a few crews to pop out at fling some missions as ships passing by. There’s a lot of mountains to hide in. As for the reports of IRGC member fleeing- maybe that’s true. Assuming it is, where are they fleeing from and fleeing too? Fleeing away from their bases? That’s probably smart if we are bombing the shit out of them, but that doesn’t mean they don’t take their equipment with them nor that they are unarmed and unable to fight. Based on my experience as a vet in our last adventures into that region, lack of coordination doesn’t necessarily mean they can’t hit back.
RichIndependence8930 | a day ago
Numerous reports from propaganda outlets, I really doubt the IRGC is fleeing in mass.
First casualty in war is truth
They don't need to be coordinated to conduct operations, look at what they are doing uncoordinated
Dougal12 | 23 hours ago
Iran is fed intelligence by Russia, they know where to strike to cause the most pain.
HonestBalloon | 22 hours ago
China has let Iran use their BeiDou nagaviation system and likely providing targeting data. A Chinese Navy Radar ship has been sitting in the Gulf since before the start of the war.
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/china-liaowang-1-spy-ship-gulf-of-oman-us-israel-iran-war-surveillance/
RichIndependence8930 | 23 hours ago
And Russia has no reason to stop. Its payback for the USA helping Ukraine, and it helps their money making capacity when oil is expensive
Dougal12 | 23 hours ago
And Trump even relaxed the sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. It’s almost like he’s compromised….
MrFrode | 16 hours ago
And Russia has every reason to want oil prices to get high and stay high.
its_boVice | a day ago
Fog of war
MalikTheHalfBee | 22 hours ago
So not much?
RichIndependence8930 | 22 hours ago
I doubt there is much that could convince you in words if what you see already is insufficient to do so
MalikTheHalfBee | 21 hours ago
Correct, the world has already witness a nation that’s been preparing for a death to America war for nearly 50 years lose leadership in a day, it’s navy in a few days & give it’s enemies complete air superiority to bomb whatever they want in the same time frame. Another pathetic paper tiger
jastop94 | a day ago
It was never about winning conventionally though. And even if half of the IRGC were to flee, that would still leave hundreds of thousands of members still available. You would still have to contend with nuisances in the straight for years. Possible sabotage and espionage. So you'll still see lowering traffic through the strait especially since the taking of Iran would be a much more difficult task than taking either Iraq or Afghanistan. A much more intricate and supplied military on the backing of Russian intelligence, the religious zealots that Afghanistan displayed with the same mountainous terrain. Iran doesn't have to win at all, they just have to make it a bigger headache for world economics than we've seen since the first Persian Gulf War and that would be effectively considered a victory. We've seen this play out in Vietnam, Iraq the second time and Afghanistan, especially with a very similar playbook that put the US in an effectively decade long war in Iraq. And while militarily the US wins handily, the middle east is often worse for it and the US economically gets into more debt and the American people longterm become more poor.
Used_Ad6860 | a day ago
The IRGC only has 125-190k based on estimates, so no if they had an exodus they would be in a bad spot, combined with the fact that their air defense is wrecked and their military infrastructure is depleted
jastop94 | 23 hours ago
You right about the number, I was thinking of the combined number of the basij which is their internal paramilitary force that is under the irgc. Though regardless, it would still mean tens of thousands of irgc still exist with the possibility of commanding of upwards of another 600k members of the basij. though if let's say a 20% of that were to show up, that still would be over 100k extra members. And even without air defense capability and much of their infrastructure, having been to the strait of hormuz myself being shadowed by Iranians during my time in the navy, it would be a massive headache for any freighter to still go through the strait especially with the possibility of drones that don't need complex infrastructure to launch. That would also be extra strain my taxpayers to keep escorts in the strait. Plus throughout the middle east you still tens of thousands of proxies in Lebanon with hezbollah even though they are getting whipped by Israel. You still have the houthis in Yemen. And you still have splinter Iraqi paramilitary forces that are sympathetic towards Iran and funded by Iran before the war. Plus, you still have very vulnerable infrastructure in the gulf that could make it hell for the gulf for example desalination plants. The US and Israel just targeted one in Iran, but they provide a smaller percentage of freshwater to Iran than the ones in other gulf states do that provide anywhere from 40-90% of those countries freshwater supply. And international reports right now also have it that the US and Israeli media aren't telling us the true extent of the damages that are unfolding that have come from Iranian retaliation with some international news outlets saying that multiple US bases are functionally not capable anymore and hundreds of more Americans and Israeli military are casualties than what our media is reporting. So it's probably a mix and average of both at the moment.
Cdub7791 | 4 hours ago
I don't understand how people have so quickly forgotten the war in two countries where small, poorly armed, poorly trained, and often badly led fighters kept us busy for ~20 years. No one credible has ever claimed the Iranian conventional forces are a match for the U.S. military, but that's beside the point. A coalition of nations was needed to keep the Red Sea open from Houthi attacks, and even that looks like it might start up again. The Strait of Hormuz is a much harder problem.
yuxulu | 21 hours ago
Vietnam, iraq, afghanistan. Sounds like all those again doesn't it? They can't win but they will make insurance/security crazy complex so america can't stay and trade can't go through there.
prophishonal | a day ago
The lack of reporting on the western media makes me think the war is at the very least balanced.
Used_Ad6860 | a day ago
I don’t see how it’s balanced, 80% of their air defense is gone, and a ton of infrastructure is destroyed
Consistent_Laziness | a day ago
Can I ask you something. What is the actual objective here?
ProcedureHopeful2944 | 23 hours ago
well, not much mention of those files lately - so there's that
Used_Ad6860 | a day ago
What do you mean?
MalikTheHalfBee | 22 hours ago
To get a compliant government that while it might not be up to western standards, is at least slightly secular - basically pretty much what the rest of the major Middle East countries have become
RichIndependence8930 | a day ago
Above ground infrastructure. The IRGC live like the dwarves in Lotr for a reason. Their important stuff is 50m underground or literally under a mountain
ViolatoR08 | 5 hours ago
And most of that has been caved in.
screamingzen | a day ago
Sauce?
Numerous_Ice_4556 | 19 hours ago
I don't think you understand what winning is. The NVA and Viet Cong got killed by the score in 'Nam, but holding the battlefield and racking up kills isn't how modern wars are won. The US shellacked the Taliban in conventional warfare and forced them to hole up in the mountains for 20 years because they lacked the strength to force the US out of Kabul, but look who's in control of the country now and who wasted 20 years and trillions of dollars just to suffer the embarrassment of the Afghani army drop their US gifted weapons and flee.
Cdub7791 | 4 hours ago
> but holding the battlefield and racking up kills isn't how modern wars are won.
You're right, but I'd even go a step further and say that's not even how most ancient wars were won. The term Pyrrhic Victory come from a greek general who won battle after battle but at so high a cost as to make overall victory worthless. The Romans famously lost to Hannibal time and time again, but shrugged, raised new armies, and went back to fighting. Unless you're literally going scortched Earth and killing everyone in a country, the only way to win a war is to break the enemy's will.
Chemical-Fault-7331 | 23 hours ago
Insurgencies are the hardest elements to combat. Just because there is no organized militia, doesn't mean Iran is just going to roll over.
Tricky-Engineering59 | 23 hours ago
I don’t see them winning but then again I didn’t see the Taliban winning either. Best case scenario we stabilize things for a while before things go off the rails eventually. I’d like to be wrong obviously.
Emotional_Goal9525 | a day ago
Nope, but the reality is that you can't hold the strait unless you commit boots on the ground and take control of the coast.
Used_Ad6860 | a day ago
Which they’ve been doing, blowing up rocket launchers, boats etc
Emotional_Goal9525 | a day ago
Not good enough. You need a buffer zone with roadblocks and check points. Alternatively you can kill every living soul indiscriminately 50km from the coast to inland, but we are not there yet.
Used_Ad6860 | a day ago
Is that so? Seems to me like the major militaries in the world disagree with this entirely.
A non Iranian tanker already passed through the strait today
orangemememachine | 4 hours ago
Lmao I remember this
MalikTheHalfBee | 21 hours ago
They wish Iran was winning so they gotta cope with that ‘it’s coming’. I guess hoping Iran finds some Rayguns crate drop or something 🤷♂️
dvduval | 18 hours ago
Iran needs the oil to flow too. Yes, they probably will let that happen.
MalikTheHalfBee | 22 hours ago
With what? Their response had been pathetic. Another paper tiger army
padizzledonk | 22 hours ago
>France, US and allies are launching a mission to clear the strait
Lmao
There is no "clear the strait" with some temporary mission from the air the strait can be closed by one sheepherder with a rpg, thats all it takes to close it, one ship gets struck and insurance companies say fuck off, no insurance for you and boom, strait is closed for all intents and purposes.
You all are under some fantasy spell or something...like theres a human chain of Iranians physically blocking the strait and we just need to go over there and disperse them and everythings good
We would need to physically occupy the area and GOOD fucking luck with that, we dont have the stomach to do that and maintain it
And this shit trumo is saying like were going to have the navy escort all the tankers and put up government insurance on the product? What are we a fucking taxi service? Uber Oil? Im sure the American people are going to stand for that when these clowns say we cant afford to pass ACA subsidies for the American People but we can afford a Billion dollars a day sending a fucking Carrier Strike Group back and forth through the strait of hormuz to taxi oil tankers and cover their losses when theyre inevitably attacked?
This shit is crazy lol
MalikTheHalfBee | 22 hours ago
Redditors might be the least optimistic people on the planet on any issue 😂
padizzledonk | 22 hours ago
>Redditors might be the least optimistic people on the planet on any issue 😂
Im a realist and i pay attention to geopolitics.
Have you ever seen the strait of hormuz on a map? I think you should go look one up, make sure it has a milage scale and topographical information on it and maybe youll understand how silly it is that they can just "clear the strait"
From a tactical and strategic perspective its militarily trivial to "close" that area to shipping either literally or ostensibly by simply attacking ships as they go through every now and then and having commercial insurance pulled. Imagine a hallway shaped like triangle and youre standing on top of the wall at the point and you have to prevent or damage anything that goes down the hallway lol its a tactical dream position and iran holds the whole one side of the bank.
The Houthis disrupted shipping in far more navigable waters for months and theyre nothing but a ragtag ass militia group....this is a nationstate of a 100M people with military industrial capacity. The only way that area is going to be made safe is to occupy the territory and like i said, good fucking luck with that
Even-Stranger5764 | 16 hours ago
One exploded oil tanker in that passage and that shit is probably unusable as well.
MalikTheHalfBee | 21 hours ago
Has it ever occurred to you that the individuals who have wargamed this exact scenario for 40+ years might know a wee bit more than you?
Coldfriction | 18 hours ago
and that is why nobody has directly attacked Iran before. The strategists knew it was stupid to do so.
MalikTheHalfBee | 18 hours ago
I guess the current batch of generals & admirals are dummies, right
ConLawHero | 19 hours ago
Based on every conflict since Vietnam, I don't think your statement is as strong as you think it is.
MalikTheHalfBee | 18 hours ago
Ah, another armchair general has entered the discussion. Tally ho
hw999 | 15 hours ago
You have a lot more faith in the drunken white supremacist leading the operation than I do. Did you forget they fired all the smart people and kept the bootlickers?
MalikTheHalfBee | 11 hours ago
Luckily everyone knows anyone who post on r/antiwork is a failure who shouldn’t be taken seriously 😂
dvduval | 18 hours ago
But Iran needs the oil to flow too. Their government especially depends on it. The oil will flow.
padizzledonk | 18 hours ago
You mean the oil from the facilities we're currently blowing up? What oil lol
Thats what people arent realizing, i meant what i said when i said "Death Ground", they are absolutely destroying the country, we are taking out the oil infrastructure and leaving them no way out and no incentive to stop
dvduval | 18 hours ago
No, the export facilities, and the actual drilling facilities and infrastructure for that is still fully intact. Not to say the United States could not go after that, but they have not. That would be a major escalation and would affect a lot of other countries like China and destroying the Iran economy would hurt its people
Kokkor_hekkus | 17 hours ago
Israel is the one running the show, and they don't care who's affected.
DontHaveWares | 18 hours ago
Ohhhh a “mission”! That’ll do it! I wonder why they didn’t launch a “mission” in the first place. What a meaningless statement.
128-NotePolyVA | 23 hours ago
To take over the strait they’d need an ever present air and naval force as well as boots on the ground holding a good piece of territory plus a no man’s land around that. Every time Iran or a proxy got their hands on a missile they’d lob it at the whole setup to disrupt.
Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, etc. have to say (publicly or privately if they must) that they are sick of the Iranian regime’s strangle hold on their major resource. Take the strait, say it’s an international trade route and share the responsibility of keeping it open. Assist with the talks and plan to make Iran a team player in the region. Israel is never going anywhere.
EatMyShortzZzZzZ | 22 hours ago
Does he really think he can just make things happen by saying it out loud? Take over the Strait of Hormuz? What the hell is he talking about?
evantom34 | 22 hours ago
He rapes kids, he’s not a bastion of truth or knowledge.
hw999 | 15 hours ago
Don't forget the US just murdered the new guys parents, wife, and children. I'm sure he isn't a white hot ball of rage right now.
303uru | 18 hours ago
lol, “take over the Hormuz”
Poorly armed Houthi rebels caused an absolute shitshow on the water. Iran can destroy a ship at anytime.
newpua_bie | 11 hours ago
I bet the "someone" is Jared
artbystorms | 23 hours ago
I've been trading since 2012 and I've never seen a market so full of cope. Even a whiff of Trump doing 50% of the insane stuff he says he will do instead of 100% and the market jumps because they hang on his every word.
BerryLanky | a day ago
The new ruler of Iran lost his entire family in the first strike. Don’t think it’s almost over.
VaporCarpet | 22 hours ago
Rhetorical question: how can "the markets" be this braindead? It's one thing for an inbred hillbilly in Arkansas to believe Trump when he says it's not a war and everything is going great. But these financial institutions have smart people working for them and analyzing actual data. How the hell can they be so easily hoodwinked?
DilbertedOttawa | 20 hours ago
They aren't. It just that there hasn't been this level of overt insider trading and setups before. They just don't feel they need to hide it at all anymore. It's making everything seem completely irrational, because it is. It's just extracting liquidity non stop.
Embarrassed-Wolf-609 | 8 hours ago
Lots of retail investors are brain dead. If you have 10 million people with $10000, that's 100 billion in money. That enough to influence the market
WestCoastBestCoast01 | 6 hours ago
It's not retail investors moving this market, it's high frequency trading that's built on algorithms that, as part of trading analysis, consider news headlines. The headlines post and the algos complete trades before a retail investor's click on their brokerage's buy/sell button even registers to its server.
PhilosophyEasy71 | 23 hours ago
It's collusion. Pump and dump BS. The world is owned by fraudsters
afoley947 | 20 hours ago
This is like zodiac signs and crystals but for rich white men.
handsoapdispenser | 23 hours ago
I mean Trump will absolutely end the war if it hurts gas prices enough. He doesn't have any tangible goals in mind so he can declare victory at any point
RichIndependence8930 | 23 hours ago
Sure, but I can see Israel not stopping and Iran not stopping either.
vtsandtrooper | 21 hours ago
TACO will back out of this just like everything else.
millerlit | a day ago
Trump posted some bullshit about war almost over
birdie_Sea | a day ago
Trump has stated:
War is over.
We are taking over the strait of Hormuz.
We will kill the new leader.
Things seem pretty interesting
CountyNo9975 | a day ago
Trump comments on war being over soon (lol); https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/08/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Also; “Earlier finance ministers from G7 countries met to discuss the energy crisis and decided not to release emergency petrol reserves, but said they “stand ready” to do so.”
Simple-Fault-9255 | a day ago
This post's content has been permanently erased using Redact. It may have been deleted for privacy, to prevent scraping, for security, or for personal reasons.
adjoining imagine carpenter spoon simplistic exultant hard-to-find nutty melodic close
Jest_out_for_a_Rip | a day ago
People bid up futures over the possibility of the worst case scenario. Now that it's seeming less likely, process are falling, and the people who bid up the price are losing money.
eufemiapiccio77 | a day ago
I got crucified for saying it would. People were trading it to the moon like a fucking meme coin. “I’m not selling” bullshiters piled on saying it’s going to 10k this week like seriously fuck off.
bd2999 | a day ago
Not sure really. the big drop happened more recently. I imagine there will be quite a bit of volatility in the numbers for a while.
Commodities and the like also do seem to be untethered to reality a fair bit. Could also be that Trump is threatening more people with war unless they keep oil going and the like. Who really knows?
Overnight it was over $100 a barrel. Prices are still pretty high and probably go back up. Steep changes usually reverse as quickly as they happen unless I missed something in the news. Even if the war ended now I do not know that Iran opens up things to help the US and other countries in the region are threatening to stop or majorly cut back production too based on the war.
Numerous_Ice_4556 | 19 hours ago
Everything is a meme these days.
alilhillbilly | 21 hours ago
>What is going on?
They are going to get the market to roar one last time so huge institutions can get money out.
Then the pain will hit.
>The oil market is acting like a meme coin.
The president is a meme coin. Meme coins are a corrupt casino.
The United States is no longer a place where there's any rule of law.
maxtheninja | 23 hours ago
Reflexivity. The market cant crash if everyone thinks its will (and positions themseves as such). Put-call ratio on Friday indicated as much (not too mention the weekend of doom in terms of expectations).
Nullacrux | 22 hours ago
algorithms have been set to FULL RETART
2CommaNoob | 21 hours ago
Insiders sold their calls
evonebo | 20 hours ago
r/wallstreetbets
Some people were going all in on Energy with derivatives play on the assumption oil was going to sky rocket.
Word1_Word2_4Numbers | 15 hours ago
Gotta have a dump after the pump. Then you load up for another pump. Or you just move on.
Since we don't know when the 180s on policy direction are coming, we can't really trade it.
Ezpz_commentz | 14 hours ago
Markets reacting to Trump opening his mouth. You'd think people would have learned by now.
raynorelyp | 23 hours ago
Has everyone forgotten TACO?
Carbon-Base | a day ago
Oil prices drop due to G7 countries discussing the release of petroleum reserves. Below $85 at the time of this comment.
Any bad news and the price of oil will shoot right back up. More good news and it stabilizes or goes lower.
Chemical-Fault-7331 | 23 hours ago
The fact that commodities are so sensitive like this just makes me think that large institutional investors have way too much influence over them, and that really shouldn't be allowed.
SUMBWEDY | 23 hours ago
Oil is an inelastic good, factories, power stations, cars, always require a certain amount of oil no more no less and it costs a tonne of money to store it. The petrol in your car was probably still under ground just last week.
Banning investing in oil doesn't suddenly make the $1.50/barrel/month storage fee dissapear or make the market more elastic.
irespondwithmyface | 22 hours ago
So can you just lie and say the "war is complete?" Is that considered good news? Because that seems to have happened.
The market is so fake.
User-no-relation | a day ago
Lol. That's usually how it works yes. It's goes up or down
SquirtleStomp | a day ago
The stock market feels so divorced from economic realities and moves solely on vibes and tweets from one guy. I know that JP Morgan has to prognosticate but it feels like this is anyone's guess as to how this will shake out. We're still anticipating 15% tariffs being implemented, right? That gets called off and tariff refunds start going out and we could hit all time highs
FIFofNovember | 21 hours ago
The markets pumped 1% after a tweet from trump that said “eh maybe the war will end soon”
Thats all it took, this market is totally detached from reality
SignificantError6221 | 20 hours ago
There's basically two economies now. The goods/services economy, and the investment economy. They used to be highly intertwined, but they've become increasingly detached due to repeated bouts of Fed stimulus to paper over market losses, which has been more absorbed by the latter, rather than the former. In effect, what it's done is shove those losses onto laborers, the young, and those without assets, so that investment class can be insulated from those losses. And it remains that way as the market has gradually consolidated into fewer and fewer large companies (employers / sources of investment capital), where labor remains divided and so does not have the bargaining power to force parity.
lawn_furniture | 21 hours ago
Give it till tomorrow or the next day and it’ll be right back down. This entire year has been back and forth because he makes such chaotic and volatile decisions.
Julian_Thorne | a day ago
Seems a bit low to me, plus how can anyone really guess when we have no idea how long the war will last or how many sleeper cells/false flags will bring disaster to the States
Affectionate-Panic-1 | a day ago
After Pearl Harbor the S and P 500 dropped 17% in the first few months and then rose 60% until the end of the war in 1945.
Going back further it rose 14% after the invasion of Poland, but dropped 6% after the fall of France.
Could use other examples but basically I'm saying that war and violence doesn't necessarily translate to poor market returns.
MisterKeene | a day ago
Defense and weaponry seem baked into the fabric of the market’s success.
Julian_Thorne | a day ago
I guess it would be interesting to see how fluctuations in the price of oil correlate with all that. If there is a tight correlation, and the Strait stays closed, then the impact of the Iran war could be more severe
hammerheadattack | 21 hours ago
Mid war money printer is rolling and government spending increases. It’s after the war when the unwinding happens that shit hits the fan as industrial demand craters
RIP_Soulja_Slim | a day ago
10% is like not great but happens all the time. For instance the post Liberation day drop was over 10%, you get a 10% drop in stocks about every 12-18 months.
Also, the Bloomberg article on this is a lot less fear mongery lol: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/jpmorgan-sees-10-correction-in-s-p-500-as-war-risks-build-up?srnd=phx-markets
Bad for stocks? Sure, is JPM calling for a market crash? no lol.
WellHung67 | 23 hours ago
Thanks Trump, thanks republicans, thanks idiot voters who voted for either of those two categories, thanks social media for cooking everyone’s brains, a small honorary thanks to the Democratic Party who could have embraced better candidates and maybe beaten Trump to avoid this but in the end the majority if not all of the thanks goes to Trump
NOLA-Bronco | a day ago
Trump is going to try and TACO this at 5pm today
Claim victory, retreat, let his propaganda mills keep the cattle in the cult in line.
Hoping Iran stops bombing Israel and US bases.
Try and do it all again before the election, probably.
turtlefan32 | a day ago
Trump has created a generation of Middle East against the USA - if we get out of this, it is because Iran walks away.!but… expect some terrorism later on - jus facts
kingofwale | 23 hours ago
You act like they like US to begin with… let’s not act stupid here.
crzycanuk | 20 hours ago
Not exactly the first time the US has meddled in their affairs.
evantom34 | 22 hours ago
This is just the newest generation of middle easterners that hate the US.
riickdiickulous | 23 hours ago
I’m getting the sense stock market manipulation is the real reason for bombing Iran. I still have no clue why we would do that otherwise. They keep pump and dumping the stock market, concentrating wealth, and this just seems like another round of it.
NoBailOnReddit | 10 hours ago
Oil started pumping on Friday, when a Qatari official said Oil would rise to $150. Trump reiterated the bombing would be intense on Sunday evening. Oil gaps up Monday, and 6 hrs late the G7 news comes out, with Trump later saying, war is close to over.
I know we're a small % of people following and trading the markets, but the manipulation has been non stop since the Greenland saga in January.
Chemical-Fault-7331 | 23 hours ago
10% from the war alone. Once the job losses kick in, people start defaulting on auto loans, credit cards, and finally mortgages, expect even larger draw downs. And fuck every last business that has helped spur this along by price gouging the fuck out of their customer base.
Lower-Condition-4104 | a day ago
Markets across the world hitting huge selloffs.....American markets: "Watch this! We going green baby!!"
I hate I have to live in the timeline watching America be the most corrupt country in the world.
kingofwale | 23 hours ago
Imaging thinking America is the most corrupt county in the world….
Lower-Condition-4104 | 23 hours ago
Imagine thinking it's not while housing the biggest billionaires in the world who puppeteer the government.
tkronew | 4 hours ago
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2025
Lower-Condition-4104 | 4 hours ago
Well this is easy to refute by a quite research:
"The index is restricted to perceptions and does not cover issues like money laundering, tax fraud, or corporate corruption. Some critics argue it can be subjective due to its reliance on perception, and it may not fully capture the nuance of corruption in every country."
tkronew | 4 hours ago
Sounds like you enjoy conspiracy.
Lower-Condition-4104 | 3 hours ago
I enjoy logic.
tkronew | 2 hours ago
So you downvote because I provide a source - maybe provide one that proves your point instead? Nah, too logical.
Lower-Condition-4104 | 2 hours ago
1.) I didn't downvote
2.) You provided an opinion-base website that leaves out some critical metrics of determining true corruption. So it's really not a source. It's an opinion arguing an opinion.
Mr-Nanny | 22 hours ago
Buy the S&P and chill.
It’s ALL insider trading for panic sellers to sell so his buddies can dip the cost and buy at the lowest point. This has happened several times in the past year and experienced huge surges within the matter of a week.
The administration breeds corruption because nothing is ever done as punishment so unless you plan on retiring this month I wouldn’t worry at all.
JourneymanInvestor | 20 hours ago
They must not have heard the announcement from taco Trump that the war is complete. The US is gonna hang the mission accomplished banner and call it a day, apparently. 😀
[OP] T_Shurt | a day ago
From the article:
Wall Street traders are ill-prepared for an expected sharp 10% plunge in the S&P 500 triggered by Trump’s escalating war in Iran, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s trading desk warned Monday, as oil soared past $100 a barrel and risks of stagflation loomed.
Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence at the financial giant, shifted to a “tactically bearish” stance on U.S. stocks.
Such a correction from the index’s peak would drag the S&P down to about 6,270 - a 7% slide from Friday’s close.
They highlighted that it took nearly five months for oil prices to fall under $100 from their peak of nearly $125 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
eufemiapiccio77 | a day ago
This isn’t Ukraine/Russia though the worlds changed since all that happened.
mshorts | a day ago
And it took one day for oil to fall below $100 this time.
ShartingTaintum | 22 hours ago
Some institutional idiot pumped Nvidia today. Who could it have been? Maybe…Nvidia? AI is a ponzi scheme with an extra step. Look up Julian Whatley on YouTube. He lays it out simply for the smooth brains like me.
evilsniperxv | 18 hours ago
lol they’re issuing call orders for active duty personnel to get ready. This shit isn’t over anytime soon. Just more of Trump trying to let his buddies sell while it’s high.
Upbeat_Can98 | 2 hours ago
jpm finally woke up, lol. 10% looks a bit low if the oil price reaches $120 and stays that way. Everyone is betting on a quick recovery, but we can't even make the engines or 5G chips for the defense technology without the minerals that China is currently choking off.