Of course that fundraise was the last one: [0], everyone getting ready to dump their pre-IPO shares on to you as China catches up with their open models.
Better to do it now than to wait a day longer and the tokens are not getting any cheaper here.
Obviously OpenAI will file for IPO certainly this month, or even this week in response both SpaceX, and Anthropic.
It's the contents of the submission that are confidential, not the fact that they are submitting.
The contents themselves contain a lot of detailed information about the internals of the company including financials, revenue, ownership details etc... those details are what's confidential until the SEC gives its approval, at which point the public can then review the document.
Every post anthropic generates feels like misdirection and bad summarization using AI. There is no sense of who the audience for this post is for and includes a lot of redundant information.
Is there any real reason to have generated announcements anyway? You could get more polished text with some copy editors and I can't imagine cost is really a big concern for it.
Can't see the relevance of this comment to the post. You can do a Google search for "confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC" to see other examples of companies announcing these submissions and they're all written in the same way.
It's just a standard/template that most companies reuse.
With SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, we're likely to see 3 of the largest IPOs ever (by a wide margin) this year. Will existing institutional investors trim other positions to allocate a lot of capital for these mega listings or is this not a concern?
They are scared of underperfoming the market and failing to exist as an index. Losing money with everyone else is a more sustainable risk than losing money while other indexes go up.
Maybe. If you read the fine print they are not. They have the goal of matching the index returns, but they never say anywhere they have exactly the stocks in the index.
Index funds all make active choices and often hold companies not in the original index. They are more passive than a traditional funds that buys and sells all the time, but they still make active choices. When an index changes stocks they can look up the price - but the funds mirroring the index need to make real trades that if not carefully done will change the value of the stocks (and cause the fund to under perform the index), so index funds have plans to prevent this. Compared to a traditional fund an index fund looks passive and there is much much less for the manager to do - but that doesn't mean the managers do nothing.
But only the amount the company floats for many index funds. So in the case of SpaceX, they are only floating 5% of the company. So the number of shares something like VTI has to buy is much smaller than the total market cap (5% of it).
Most likely. Funds generally don't have much unallocated cash, they operate fully invested, so three huge IPOs will force an asset rebalancing which can cause some liquidity drain from the rest of the market.
Plus as insider lockup periods expire, that's a ton of dollars pulled out of the market and into safer assets. It's going to be a huge net exit of capital.
I'd expect a lot of volatility and pretty heavy downward pressure across the rest of tech.
It means that Anthropic has submitted a document that it intends to share with the public in order to solicit public investment. This document includes details about its business, financials/revenue, ownership structure, risks, etc...
The document itself is what's confidential until the SEC approves it, at which point Anthropic will release that document to the public and IPO.
This is actually the pin everyone was looking for that will pop this AI bubble, including the token cost falling in China and the release of open models that are good and run locally.
It could be, but the market could bounce right back. And if it does, it's hard to know who will emerge stronger. Anthropic could end up like Amazon, or it could end up like Yahoo.
If OpenAI and Anthropic eventually become public companies with trillion-dollar valuations, it will be interesting to see if their company ethos remains the same. With that much purchasing power, it's very tempting to gobble up competitors and raise prices.
Who else right now is making competing models that are roughly as capable? Now factor in hardware availability / future delivery contracts and capital requirements for building datacenters and running new training. If you're trying to compete and lease all that with VC money or loans, good luck actually competing.
I’m curious which labs will start producing hardware be it robotics, consumer or commercial devices, chips, energy infrastructure or transforming shipping crates into housing for displaced and jobless humans. O_o
The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.
You speak so authoritatively about quality and performance of these models, yet there are no quantitative metrics that correlate to real world outcomes that indicate that the quality and performance of these models is anything but subjective noise and classic benchmark nonsense.
A company consumed half a billion dollars worth of tokens in a month and nobody noticed anything until the bill came due.
Tha $500m dollars is roughly equivalent to 2000 people working for a year or 500 people working for four years, they can and would accomplish a lot if they worked in companies that add value to the economy by solving real problems.
Indeed Its irrelevant. Each firm will make its own cost-benefit analysis, especially since the frontier labs are raising prices.
Marketing only takes you so far in creating noise.
Its weird seeing this focus on bench marks again - PC's did this for quite some time. But in the end it came down to - what does all this additional horsepower let you do? Oh create interesting apps, multi-tasking etc. Which was really the value-add.
It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs.
The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026.
The plan is to rapidly drive these prices up in the first 15 days, get the companies listed in the NASDAQ so funds are forced to purchase them at higher prices, then leave retirement accounts holding the bag.
I get the sentiment that this is unscrupulous, however, isn't 15 days enough time to find the right price? Or will that not really happen until first quarterly earnings report, which will not occur within that 15 day window?
You can protect yourself, but many won't be aware of the situation until it's too late, and institutionally managed funds won't be able to change their rules in time to avoid holding these as part of the index funds they hold.
Total market indexes and target date funds will include this and SpaceX on float adjusted basis I believe. The blast radius is much larger than funds that track the NASDAQ directly.
Very true. Anthropic just raised money at the end of last week.
There's no way they could have done that without telling those investors the S-1 was prepared and awaiting their signature on the round before they hit Submit, so to speak.
almost all 401k plans offer funds based on s&p 500, not nasdaq/russell others. s&p has also halved their trading days requirement from 1 yr to 6 months, but that's still sufficient to be past the post-ipo lock-up period.
As you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices.
The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.
And as suspected, the Anthropic deal is not recurring revenue, its just a think they can cancel anytime with 90 days notice...Release the bad news slowly and when people are looking somewhere else...
SpaceX AI segment lost about $2.5B from operations in Q1 2026 on $818M revenue...they are burning dollars. Musk controls about 85% of voting power through supervoting shares, and cannot be fired...go IPO buyers...nothing like economic exposure without control....
I've heard of the changes to the NASDAQ rules and I somewhat get how they make it so these stocks are included in index funds earlier than before. As far as I know, NYSE and others haven't done the same change so index funds there are "safe", i.e. will include the stocks only after a longer period, implying that it will have settled in value by then. Is that true at all? I'm sure the situation is much more complicated, but I do wonder how to figure out how much I'm affected.
There is a huge amount of misinformation on this topic, including in this thread, at the minute.
Some index funds have a very long horizon before they include them (e.g. a year). Others are "fast-tracked" (e.g. notably VTI). Most of those, however, are float-adjusted, so only the stock available for trade is considered part of the marketcap. So e.g. VTI / VTSAX will buy spacex relatively quickly after the IPO but at the float-adjusted weight of ~$75B because that's the % of stock available.
If you care alot about this, now is the time to understand how your index fund treats IPOs wrt to delays + float adjustment.
Specifically, I do a typical 3FP and own VTSAX, but I don't read bogleheads or anything. True set-it-and-forget-it, but I do want to read more if things are shifting.
You should not trust me, but here's my understanding. I wish there was a really good writeup somewhere to explain this authoritatively but I'm not sure there is one. Would also love to see one. Frankly vanguard should do it.
VTSAX (and VTI) follow the CRSP index. This is float-adjusted but they likely will be fast tracked (these are two separate rules in how this index chooses to weight things and participate in new stocks). At ~5% float, these companies will be in the 50-100B range. So under all those assumptions, they'll end up representing less than 1% of VTSAX.
why did they raise 3 days ago? What's the benefit of doing this instead of going public right away? If it's just cash to pay for GPUs, can't they issue bonds or something?
IPO isn't really about "raising money for the company" any longer, unless one means raising the money in their wallets so they can take the money and run.
You pretty much always do a late-stage private round shortly before an IPO, that is the standard. The goal of the late-stage funding round is to give a better idea of how much capital can be raised by the IPO. It helps reduce uncertainty about expectations of what the company is worth before going public.
Is it actually refreshing? It's actually refreshing to see Stripe staying private for so long. That means, they have a sustainable business model, and can take on projects that might benefit users in the long term despite negative short term consequences instead of focus on growing at all cost for the most part.
Stripe seems to be doing fairly well as a private company. They continually offer liquidity events for employees to cash out, while also retaining less pressure for hypergrowth from outside activists and investors.
ch4s3 | an hour ago
ssgodderidge | an hour ago
kylecazar | an hour ago
ConnorBoyd | an hour ago
chinathrow | an hour ago
rvz | an hour ago
Better to do it now than to wait a day longer and the tokens are not getting any cheaper here.
Obviously OpenAI will file for IPO certainly this month, or even this week in response both SpaceX, and Anthropic.
Then AGI will then have been achieved externally.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48313390
freediddy | an hour ago
Sol- | an hour ago
iLoveOncall | an hour ago
sh34r | an hour ago
iLoveOncall | 53 minutes ago
0123456789ABCDE | an hour ago
iLoveOncall | 54 minutes ago
0123456789ABCDE | 29 minutes ago
† https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h
Maxatar | an hour ago
The contents themselves contain a lot of detailed information about the internals of the company including financials, revenue, ownership details etc... those details are what's confidential until the SEC gives its approval, at which point the public can then review the document.
outside1234 | an hour ago
jmtulloss | 49 minutes ago
root-parent | 17 minutes ago
kenyuz | an hour ago
nemomarx | an hour ago
luka598 | an hour ago
Maxatar | an hour ago
It's just a standard/template that most companies reuse.
https://www.figma.com/blog/s1-confidential-submission
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/gemini-announces-co...
https://investors.navan.com/news-releases/news-release-detai...
https://www.round1-group.co.jp/docs/pdf/2026/20260507_news_e...
Catloafdev | an hour ago
conductr | an hour ago
It's a required public disclosure following a format traditionally used in mandatory public disclosures.
hubraumhugo | an hour ago
nemomarx | an hour ago
whateveracct | an hour ago
chilipepperhott | an hour ago
qwytw | an hour ago
nemomarx | 56 minutes ago
nly | an hour ago
qwytw | an hour ago
Of course IIRC they looking into tweaking the rules to allow some handpicked extremely unprofitable companies in, due to "reasons"....
s1artibartfast | 12 minutes ago
DenisM | an hour ago
bluGill | an hour ago
Index funds all make active choices and often hold companies not in the original index. They are more passive than a traditional funds that buys and sells all the time, but they still make active choices. When an index changes stocks they can look up the price - but the funds mirroring the index need to make real trades that if not carefully done will change the value of the stocks (and cause the fund to under perform the index), so index funds have plans to prevent this. Compared to a traditional fund an index fund looks passive and there is much much less for the manager to do - but that doesn't mean the managers do nothing.
outside1234 | 59 minutes ago
thewebguyd | 28 minutes ago
Plus as insider lockup periods expire, that's a ton of dollars pulled out of the market and into safer assets. It's going to be a huge net exit of capital.
I'd expect a lot of volatility and pretty heavy downward pressure across the rest of tech.
kypro | an hour ago
Maxatar | an hour ago
The document itself is what's confidential until the SEC approves it, at which point Anthropic will release that document to the public and IPO.
root-parent | an hour ago
"The stock market just did something eerily similar to the dot-com bubble top in 2000" - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/the-stock-market-just-did-so...
rvz | an hour ago
bensyverson | an hour ago
bjtitus | an hour ago
baal80spam | an hour ago
I've seen this comment on HN at least 5 times already.
dgellow | an hour ago
leonidasv | an hour ago
neovive | an hour ago
daseiner1 | an hour ago
herpdyderp | an hour ago
pton_xd | 58 minutes ago
Arubis | 38 minutes ago
mirekrusin | 32 minutes ago
pqtyw | an hour ago
What? In what way would the change? They are already raising prices..
blmarket | an hour ago
seanp2k2 | 52 minutes ago
CompoundEyes | 50 minutes ago
johnQdeveloper | 47 minutes ago
The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.
fieldcny | 32 minutes ago
A company consumed half a billion dollars worth of tokens in a month and nobody noticed anything until the bill came due.
Tha $500m dollars is roughly equivalent to 2000 people working for a year or 500 people working for four years, they can and would accomplish a lot if they worked in companies that add value to the economy by solving real problems.
4ffdd | 11 minutes ago
Marketing only takes you so far in creating noise.
Its weird seeing this focus on bench marks again - PC's did this for quite some time. But in the end it came down to - what does all this additional horsepower let you do? Oh create interesting apps, multi-tasking etc. Which was really the value-add.
2OEH8eoCRo0 | 39 minutes ago
ozgrakkurt | 36 minutes ago
cmiles8 | an hour ago
gonzalohm | an hour ago
roadside_picnic | an hour ago
The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026.
The plan is to rapidly drive these prices up in the first 15 days, get the companies listed in the NASDAQ so funds are forced to purchase them at higher prices, then leave retirement accounts holding the bag.
chinathrow | 48 minutes ago
cryo32 | 9 minutes ago
Edit: oh looky did I inflame the PE simians?
giarc | 47 minutes ago
FireBeyond | 26 minutes ago
Meanwhile some of these companies are also lobbying to be able to only have to submit annual or biannual earnings reports, too.
Everyone is looking for multiple ways to leave the dumb money holding the bag.
iTokio | 25 minutes ago
And there are plenty of ways to manipulate the price, such as issuing a low float to a hyper hyped stock..
collinmcnulty | 19 minutes ago
cdelsolar | 44 minutes ago
bittercynic | 28 minutes ago
yeswecatan | 12 minutes ago
noelsusman | 43 minutes ago
alemanek | 5 minutes ago
FireBeyond | 30 minutes ago
There's no way they could have done that without telling those investors the S-1 was prepared and awaiting their signature on the round before they hit Submit, so to speak.
findjashua | 7 minutes ago
thomascountz | an hour ago
[1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...
onlyrealcuzzo | an hour ago
roadside_picnic | an hour ago
The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.
s1artibartfast | 19 minutes ago
FuckButtons | an hour ago
boringg | 19 minutes ago
root-parent | 25 minutes ago
SpaceX AI segment lost about $2.5B from operations in Q1 2026 on $818M revenue...they are burning dollars. Musk controls about 85% of voting power through supervoting shares, and cannot be fired...go IPO buyers...nothing like economic exposure without control....
jbkkd | 12 minutes ago
sschueller | an hour ago
PUSH_AX | an hour ago
rottencupcakes | 48 minutes ago
barbazoo | 34 minutes ago
lbrandy | 25 minutes ago
Some index funds have a very long horizon before they include them (e.g. a year). Others are "fast-tracked" (e.g. notably VTI). Most of those, however, are float-adjusted, so only the stock available for trade is considered part of the marketcap. So e.g. VTI / VTSAX will buy spacex relatively quickly after the IPO but at the float-adjusted weight of ~$75B because that's the % of stock available.
If you care alot about this, now is the time to understand how your index fund treats IPOs wrt to delays + float adjustment.
avensec | 16 minutes ago
Specifically, I do a typical 3FP and own VTSAX, but I don't read bogleheads or anything. True set-it-and-forget-it, but I do want to read more if things are shifting.
lbrandy | 5 minutes ago
VTSAX (and VTI) follow the CRSP index. This is float-adjusted but they likely will be fast tracked (these are two separate rules in how this index chooses to weight things and participate in new stocks). At ~5% float, these companies will be in the 50-100B range. So under all those assumptions, they'll end up representing less than 1% of VTSAX.
outside1234 | an hour ago
dcre | an hour ago
thewebguyd | 25 minutes ago
zipy124 | 5 minutes ago
eamag | an hour ago
44df | 56 minutes ago
Price setting.
gedy | 51 minutes ago
Maxatar | 51 minutes ago
40acres | 57 minutes ago
parthdesai | 45 minutes ago
mcast | 25 minutes ago
ParkRanger | 19 minutes ago