I suspect we'll be seeing it a lot more in the coming years.
There's no easy way out of this. Hard choices must be made, and there is no leadership in place that is willing to even accept this reality, let alone make those hard choices.
Remember, he does not use words to lie or tell the truth. He uses whatever words will get him what he wants, and he doesn't care what those words are.
Will people vote my way if I say things are good? Things are good. Will people vote my way if I say things are bad? Things are bad. Who gives a shit, vote like I tell you.
The fatal flaw is that the economy really only works if people have faith that it works. Not everyone of course, but enough people to keep the wheels spinning. When you look at statements from the Fed, they're carefully crafted to say "We are adults. We are competent. More than competent, we are experts. We collect enormous amounts of information. We weigh it carefully. We are doing the best we can to understand the economy at every level and to keep you employed and keep inflation steady and modest. Rely on us. Rely on yourselves to participate in this thing our society depends on." This fills people with confidence. "Words are only a tool for me to get what I want" uttered by a president does not fill people with confidence unless they think they can use idiocy for profit. Low confidence, economy starts to falter and stutter. Bad times for most. And bad times lead to poor decisions, panicked decisions.
> is a 1986 essay, published as a book in 2005, by the American philosopher Harry G. Frankfurt which presents a theory of bullshit that defines the concept [as] speech intended to persuade without regard for truth. The liar cares about the truth and attempts to hide it; the bullshitter doesn't care whether what they say is true or false.
I'm not making a statement or anything like that because I've no place to really speak but - as an observer and someone who is Irish and experienced our monumental collapse back in 08.
In the lead up to everything going belly up - the news was constantly reporting on the Bond markets, that would have been when I learned about interest rates and inflation.
On the ground there was constant job losses but it wasn't the main subject of news.
Over a period of about 2months the big bodyshop I was with, we went from 15cars a week to 5 - and then we had an empty yard. The whole empty yard thing might'nt be very important to most folks but fuck me - we were up shit creek without a paddle all of a sudden, things slowed slightly then everything went to shit, shops closed, the local family businesses got decimated and the bwankers got bailed out.- that was literally the only time I've seen an empty yard locally. They do look like they're running slower though at the moment.
Our collapse was only worse than most countries suffered because, at the time we had a criminally inept government that were too ignorant to see what was coming - in short "I think we're proper fucked!"
Sorry you had to go through that. I agree that the situation of ordinary folk often tells more than the big economic numbers. I believe we are seeing signs of it in the US such as stories on social media about farmers struggling etc. But there is so much misinformation today many people can dismiss these stories as fake, or turn to fake stories that tell a different narrative.
But common sense tells us that such fundamentally bad economic policy cannot have a good outcome.
I see unfortunate and very real stories like this dismissed by absolutely everyone on both sides of the political spectrum here in the US.
One huge thing that contributed to Orange's win was the opposition party (Dems!) horrifically scolding people with stories exactly like this as being irrelevant because "Look! My chart says we're making more money than ever! Best economy! Huge income gains!".
It's absolutely enraging that stories of regular people are being ignored by EVERYONE from top financial influencers to politicians who love to say they're ready to make things better without actually listening to anyone or considering REAL economic insecurity as fictional and mindless.
To address the farmer issue, nobody disbelieves farming or Ag issues aren't real but they put the same exact guy in office AGAIN that trashed their own sector the last time he was in at a rate of almost 80%.
I don't know what election you were following, but Kamala Harris' core message in 2024 was about helping families who were struggling. She advocated policies such as hosing assistance, legal limits on price increases, increased child tax credits, all funded by increased corporate taxes.
Meanwhile Trump was going on about immigrants eating dogs and cats and, of course, lowering taxes for the wealthy.
I didn't really like all of The Democratic party policies, and doubt some of them would be effective. But your suggestion that "both sides" were equally tone deaf to the struggles of ordinary Americans is simply not based on fact.
Trump was doing all those awful things and prominent Dems on social media (not necessarily the Harris campaign) were flat out pretending financial uncertainty was imaginary because Best Economy Ever in 2023.
I mean you're doing it too. There are VERY horrible things wrong with Dem messaging and how Dem stats guys deal with financial uncertainty on social media and that's why a lot of people sat out last time.
You saw something somewhere on social media that contradicted the messaging of the party leadership, and that proves that the party was horrible at messaging?
Stuff like this is absolutely maddening and is one of the reasons that the collective punishment known as Donald J. Trump is deserved by far more than the people in his cult.
So I have been reading some spilled ink on the concept of "legibility" as it applies to people sitting on top of a long ladder or tall pyramid. Like, say, national level politicians who don't do a lot of walking around town talking to people authentically and organically. What is legible to them? What can they "read" and understand? But also there is the question of timeliness that I think is key.
How many people are employed and how busy are they? These top-line numbers are reasonably easy to understand even if they miss nuance, because nuance is too broad to wrap up into a convenient statistic. For example for you, those numbers would be: how many individuals did your body shop employ this month and how many hours did they work and how much did they get paid; and how much revenue did the shop book, and what were the expenses. That is fairly legible but making it so requires significant work and time to collect the data, analyze it... and revise it as more data comes in. By the time the alarm bells are sounding because 50% of body shops have started to idle, it has been two, three months. Then the question is, is it only one part of one sector or is it a broader issue? Maybe another month or two to know for sure. So when bad times hit, it can take months of lag time to collect the statistics to show this is the case. What is obvious to you on the ground is not only not obvious to people "up there" but it may also be wrong, eg, maybe your employer is idling because they fucked up their business but everyone else is as busy as ever.
But the bond market... the basics of the bond market are simple to understand and use as heuristics, and, prices and yields move every day, published widely and available to all. When prices paid for a bond vs the face value of the bond dips, and when yields soar, that information is available within scant minutes to everyone who looks at it. Including you and me. We might have a 15 or 30 minute delay at worst. It's both legible and timely information so it's very easy to report on. It's also immediately relevant to politicians figuring out economic policy, vs the lives of peons earning modest wage.
The choices aren't even that 'hard' relatively speaking. We probably only need to get the deficit down to about 1-1.2 trillion a year. Raise taxes on everyone (in a progressive way), reform the estate/gift tax and trusts, cut defense spending, raise corpo taxes, put more limits on allowed expensive end of life treatments for Medicare, and implement some federal civil service reforms.
And then as far as social security fixes when the trust fund runs out, raise the retirement age by about two year and/or make the spousal/divorcee/widow benefit less generous, and either raise the cap a bit or make top level benefits less generous in some form
Hard to wage a trade war when your waging it against the top holders of US treasuries while they degrade into junk.
This only goes
one way, bonds go completely worthless (unlikely) or Trump does the biggest TACO of his life as he repeals all tariffs to bring back foreign buyers to bonds.
The question is just how far the ego goes before admitting defeat.
There's no one in the Republican party with the courage to start a coup against Trump. Like any totalitarian leader, he's structured his organization to protect against it. Anyone that even suggests he be removed will be fired, outcast, branded a traitor, and likely prosecuted with sham charges.
The only Republicans left in power are those that abandoned their oath to the country in exchange for power granted by Trump. None of them are willing to take the risk. In their value system, there is nothing to gain by standing up to Trump, and much to lose.
Losing your office is worth more to them than betraying Trump. A noble martyr for the MAGA cause will find a soft landing amongst their wealthy constituents doing something else. A traitor will have to flee their home and change their name, nevermind getting re-elected.
Like who? Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg, Thiel, Dell, Ellison, Koch's are 8 of the top 12 richest people in USA and they are all-in on Trump.
Thiel has always been setting up Vance to follow Trump, I don't think the rest protest that so long as Vance funnels them money the way Trump has been.
Heritage is the most powerful lobby in DC and it's all in on Trump too, etc. Oil is all in on Trump, etc.
I don't remember specifics but there were at least two high profile donors (below a top 20 wealthiest tier, anyway) recently pulling the plug on some of their donations pending reviews. They're not about to cross Trump publicly, but they're not necessarily throwing even more money at the prospect of sustaining him. They may sense better returns in shorting up moderate and business-friendly democrats.
Word is that Ellison is moving to replace Weiss, and I bet Heritage is on the third revision of their novel on why Trump, and not conservatism, has failed.
Yes, it will be all the same ideas and beliefs and policies, but they're going to try to rebrand it and disassociate it from him (just like they did with Bush, and Bush before him...)
But, when even folks like Matt Walsh on the Daily Wire seem to be at their wit’s end, the idea of Trump being shoved out the door immediately before or after the midterms isn’t so hard to believe.
I would love to see it. I think it would be really therapeutic for the country to have a president removed from office. It would be a great reminder to the public that the Constitution is the law of the land. It would be one of the most important history lessons for generations to come.
But Trump has entrenched himself with powerful people through blatant corruption. There are many people that have a lot to lose by seeing him go. It will be an ugly fight.
I also don't think it's a sure win for Vance if he takes over for a year. That may be all he gets. Remember Gerald Ford? People actually liked him, but still voted against Nixon's VP. The country is more partisan now, so who knows?
If he is to be shoved out, my prediction would be that it would not happen immediately after midterms. Vance becomes eligible for two additional terms if they wait until 2 years post inauguration.
Why not? He’s an ailing 80 year old blathering liar, who has lost his marbles and belongs in a home not the peoples house. Just look at what he just did: offering to sell arms to China?!? That’s impeachment material by itself. He has no idea what he’s doing
It only takes a few to stand up and I guarantee the dam will break
The first to stand up will likely be arrested. Or someone in their family will be arrested.
That's not an exaggeration. The charges might not stick, but they will still have to go through hell fighting them. It will take years. Just look what they are doing to James Comey and he wasn't even remotely a political threat to Trump. Or Mark Kelly...
The choice for any Republican leader at this point is: Maintain the charade for a couple more years, or risk political suicide (or even criminal prosecution.)
Most of them have been in office for decades. Most of them have been playing corrupt politics for decades. They have no principles.
Did any of them say anything when McConnell's corpse was wheeled out on the floor to vote?
They won't even vote to release the Epstein files.
They have been looking the other way their entire careers. All of them will choose to wait out Trump's term, no matter how bad it gets. As it gets worse, they will just blame Democrats harder.
Vance could potentially serve as president for a long time if takes over for Trump and then be elected twice if he take over after January 20, 2027. So 9-10 years in total.
Who's plan? It surely wasn't Trump's plan. He never really had one except to get into power and stay until he no longer wants to be there. But the day will never come that he no longer wants to be in power. He will never give up the spotlight.
If anyone tries to start a process of replacing Trump with Vance, Trump will simply have anyone supporting the plan arrested on bogus charges. He would even arrest Vance if he had do.
He can do that because the president has all the power, the vice president has none. Remember Mike Pence? Trump threw him to the wolves the second Pence (reluctantly) sided with the Constitution over Trump.
The last thing Trump will ever do is follow a plan that involves himself conceding power.
Project 2027 and Thiel’s goons, but yes, they clearly overestimated their ability to rein Trump in and to be liked by even a sliver of the broader public.
Fortunately, republicans are so toxic at the moment that his home state is about to flip. And if the bubble does pop before 2028 (seems extremely likely), then I doubt he would even win a primary in Ohio, much less actually win the general.
Vance is probably destined to be a failed author and an occasional fox news commentator much like Pence.
If Vance were to take over after the two-year mark of Trump's term (after January 20, 2027), that time would count as his first term limit eligibility, meaning he could only run for one more election in 2028
Nothing I am saying, I asked AI for that situation with JD Vance which I got "If Vance were to take over after the two-year mark of Trump's term (after January 20, 2027), that time would count as his first term limit eligibility, meaning he could only run for one more election in 2028" -- and in an age where AI is supposed to be this amazing thing, I dunno if it's correct on this or your comment.
It seems like the AI got it backwards. It would not make sense for it to be "if JD serves >2 years, it doesn't count against his eligibility, but if he serves<2 years, it does"
It's a classic AI mistake, in that it is very close, and gets the idea and details right (I believe the 01/20/2027 date is correct, but not 100% sure) - but gets the actual focal point wrong.
Flip the word "after" for "before" and it's a spot on answer.
And this is a perfect example of why you should not actually rely on AI's answer for anything. At best take its answer and check the source it gives to confirm for yourself.
They could also let the economy tank, walking back just enough tarrifs to be able to place blame for the failing economy on the incoming Democratic majority.
You don't need to impeach the president to rein in the tariff garbage. Congress just needs to do its job. But over the last 20 years, they seem to think their job is to do nothing and pass on responsibility to the executive.
Votes don’t matter.
Not saying don’t do it. But have realistic expectations, unless quite a few political assassinations happen, nothing is changing for the better in the next few years, regardless of what “the people” want..
Are you unfamiliar with how we got out of the Gilded Age? It just seems like if “assassinations” is your only solution, you haven’t done much reading into how other places and our own country have dealt with this stuff in the past.
When I talk about our country, I’m talking about the US, so yes. And yes, absolutely other modern examples have had to deal with mass surveillance and groups far worse that fucking MAGA and the dipshits at ICE, particularly in sheer numbers and force.
Also, it’s pretty clear these dinguses haven’t studied our history, based on the laws they keep trotting out. They’re literally reenacting the greatest hits that one would absolutely not reenact if they had any sense.
Have you really never heard about the shift to the Progressive Era? People died. It wasn’t smooth. It wasn’t just voting. It was also successful. You should really, really check it out. That and the farmworker rights movement as well. Start with John Brown, Eugene Debbs, and the Triangle Shirtwaist Fire aftermath. Hell, read the famous “Bread and Roses” speech and see how closely it tracks to right now.
If they don't also hold the Senate by a significant majority, it won't much matter what they do. We saw this even when Obama was in office. The house will pass legislation, it will get shut down in the Senate through threat of filibuster. And if anything passes the Senate, Trump will veto.
Republicans have one dominating policy agenda: Prevent Democrats from advancing anything.
They do not care what it costs the country. In a functioning democracy this behavior should have greatly diminished their power. But it hasn't hurt them at all in the past two decades, so they are unlikely to change course. There are very few Republicans left in power that even understand compromise or win-win.
The best we can hope for is that midterms give Democrats enough of a majority to neuter Trump until 2028, and prevent him from corrupting elections so that a Democrat can win the presidency in a fair election. Once again, in a functioning democracy this would be a certainty. But at this point it's a strong maybe, at best.
Won't really matter. They won't hold enough of a congressional majority to really do anything, especially in an impeachment sense, and Trump will just veto literally anything they try to pass.
We're in a for a bad, bad two years, and even cholesterol finally doing its job doesn't just make the world better if Vance decides that his political future depends on trying to maintain the MAGA cult.
I see nothing that indicates Trump has a single incentive to give a shit about his legacy as president or working to improve conditions. He is surrounded by yes men and lives a completely separate, delusional reality. And he's still accomplishing what I believe he's only ever cared about, which is enriching himself, his family, and their business associates.
Millions and millions of Trump voters are watching their livelihoods be destroyed, and in the aftermath, they'll just became a great wave of apathetic non-voters who, rather than try to understand who will actually advocate for their well-being, will just say "All politicians are corrupt!" and pretend like they didn't make this happen.
I agree with everything you said, except that he does care about his legacy in a very Trump-minded way.
His obsession with putting himself on monuments, money, Mt. Rushmore, etc. is his way of ensuring he enters the club of "great" presidents. Of course he doesn't comprehend that he needs to earn that honor, and that it can only bestowed by the people after his death. Or maybe he does understand and knows that he would never receive these honors, so he has to force them to happen.
It's a unique kind of pathetic, at least by American standards.
i have a feeling that if trump can't maintain his fantasy that he'll be remembered as a hero, he'll settle for being remembered as the man who ended civilization.
Congress has investigative authority - even if they can't get any laws past his desk, they sure af can start exploring just how corrupt this motherfucker has been for the past 2 years and just how deep it goes. Let's see how many cockroaches scatter in the light. Find enough bad shit, may even be able to convince Republicans to do the right thing (that's assuming he's still in the high 20's approval or lower of course, if that goes back up, they'll stonewall behind their orange leader)
He will fiddle while it burns. Europe is in real trouble. The market has been shockingly underestimating how idiotic and incapable this President is. I am a professional oil trader and have been left in awe by the depth and breadth of this mans stupidity. Its even more surprising how sensitive the market is to his tweets. This will be a banner year for traders who simply bet on the obvious: Trump is not in control, our debt is not in control. Those two trades alone will make for an early retirement.
Edit: May God have mercy on us all.
Pretty sure there's nothing at this point that could bring bond holders back in any significant numbers. The rates it would take to overcome expected inflation would be unsustainable for the US.
Is this that fabled winning that we've been hearing so much about?
This sub is probably going to have to post this headline every week now for god knows how long. I can't fathom why so many of the American people still look at the GOP as the party of fiscal responsibility and economic success. How much more data do you need?
RIP to everyone who hoped to refi their mortgage rates anytime soon.
The U.S. plans to borrow indefinitely as long they find a way to lower the interest rates.
At the moment the U.S. doesn't have a solid plan that both parties willing to implement if needed if it turns out that economy won't grow faster than debt. That plan should have been created long time ago, it just show that lots politicians doesn't take their job seriously.
Debt ceiling is a joke that doesn't work and abused to achieve different goals
Politicians don't want to make unpopular decisions because they want to stay in office and people don't want to suffer. They would rather pass these problems on to future generations.
The implementation of the debt ceiling is a purposeful poison pill. When one party has a presidency, business as usual. When the other does, it's a neverending PR cudgel of "how could THEY be so wasteful, all they do is tax and waste."
Like yeah what we should do, we being the House, is pass a budget with a large deficit and then have an entirely separate vote four times a year on whether we're going to borrow money to pay our deficit or if we should just shut down the government and maybe default. That's what we should do. Debating the debt ceiling during budget time is obviously the wrong time to do it, let's just do brinksmanship later.
A housing disaster is in the making as far as I see it. Take my inlaws situation, they have a second home in the mountains, it's a good chunk of their "retirement savings." Most of their life the number has just ticked up and up. They refinanced it several years back at 2.25%. They're now getting ready to sell and lo and behold, there is no one to sell too. You see for the past 30+ years the same group of boomers were essentially swapping these things, younger entrants to the secondary housing market never existed. They've moved between 6 different cabins in the same area over the last 40 years and I asked them how old was they buyer each time, "always about our age." Hmm, see any potential problem with that?
But now boomers are looking to get rid of their second homes for retirement savings, downsizing, etc... and there exists no market to purchase them. My inlaws are looking at listings around them that have been up for over a year now and anything selling is going for 25% under asking. I tried to get them to sell during COVID when there was demand, they scoffed at me. Now they're stuck. I think this tale plays out across the market for primary and secondary homes, boomers with low rates and their retirement caught up in their house are expecting to make money on their home but there exists no market to purchase them.
They're deeply arrogant. I remember when Mom renovated their house (in their style) to sell and they were annoyed the buyer gutted it. They made a big deal about including the hydraulic car lift in the sale, only for the buyer to sell it immediately.
Open gates of hell , i mean illegal imigration doors again and let illegal aliens buying 500k houses with 10$/h jobs (or even better, unemployed)
house market + GDP will go brrrrrrrrrrr again
Worse schools, healthcare, crimes? Who cares? A price has to be paid for keeping number 1 economy on abolute numbers when others countries have 1 billion people
What were you guys doing during the end of the American empire? I think once the recession hits, we should tax Trump voters to fund the non Trump voters. I know that will total like two cents and a couple of loose teeth but it’s about sending a message
Own-Chemist2228 | 5 hours ago
Been seeing this headline a lot lately.
I suspect we'll be seeing it a lot more in the coming years.
There's no easy way out of this. Hard choices must be made, and there is no leadership in place that is willing to even accept this reality, let alone make those hard choices.
big-papito | 5 hours ago
He was just on TV saying that the prices were lower on everything...
johnnypalace | 5 hours ago
Maybe he just meant prices of bonds
gimpwiz | 5 hours ago
Remember, he does not use words to lie or tell the truth. He uses whatever words will get him what he wants, and he doesn't care what those words are.
Will people vote my way if I say things are good? Things are good. Will people vote my way if I say things are bad? Things are bad. Who gives a shit, vote like I tell you.
The fatal flaw is that the economy really only works if people have faith that it works. Not everyone of course, but enough people to keep the wheels spinning. When you look at statements from the Fed, they're carefully crafted to say "We are adults. We are competent. More than competent, we are experts. We collect enormous amounts of information. We weigh it carefully. We are doing the best we can to understand the economy at every level and to keep you employed and keep inflation steady and modest. Rely on us. Rely on yourselves to participate in this thing our society depends on." This fills people with confidence. "Words are only a tool for me to get what I want" uttered by a president does not fill people with confidence unless they think they can use idiocy for profit. Low confidence, economy starts to falter and stutter. Bad times for most. And bad times lead to poor decisions, panicked decisions.
dust4ngel | an hour ago
> Remember, he does not use words to lie or tell the truth
On Bullshit:
> is a 1986 essay, published as a book in 2005, by the American philosopher Harry G. Frankfurt which presents a theory of bullshit that defines the concept [as] speech intended to persuade without regard for truth. The liar cares about the truth and attempts to hide it; the bullshitter doesn't care whether what they say is true or false.
bobspuds | 4 hours ago
I'm not making a statement or anything like that because I've no place to really speak but - as an observer and someone who is Irish and experienced our monumental collapse back in 08.
In the lead up to everything going belly up - the news was constantly reporting on the Bond markets, that would have been when I learned about interest rates and inflation.
On the ground there was constant job losses but it wasn't the main subject of news.
Over a period of about 2months the big bodyshop I was with, we went from 15cars a week to 5 - and then we had an empty yard. The whole empty yard thing might'nt be very important to most folks but fuck me - we were up shit creek without a paddle all of a sudden, things slowed slightly then everything went to shit, shops closed, the local family businesses got decimated and the bwankers got bailed out.- that was literally the only time I've seen an empty yard locally. They do look like they're running slower though at the moment.
Our collapse was only worse than most countries suffered because, at the time we had a criminally inept government that were too ignorant to see what was coming - in short "I think we're proper fucked!"
Own-Chemist2228 | 4 hours ago
Sorry you had to go through that. I agree that the situation of ordinary folk often tells more than the big economic numbers. I believe we are seeing signs of it in the US such as stories on social media about farmers struggling etc. But there is so much misinformation today many people can dismiss these stories as fake, or turn to fake stories that tell a different narrative.
But common sense tells us that such fundamentally bad economic policy cannot have a good outcome.
artisanrox | 4 hours ago
I see unfortunate and very real stories like this dismissed by absolutely everyone on both sides of the political spectrum here in the US.
One huge thing that contributed to Orange's win was the opposition party (Dems!) horrifically scolding people with stories exactly like this as being irrelevant because "Look! My chart says we're making more money than ever! Best economy! Huge income gains!".
It's absolutely enraging that stories of regular people are being ignored by EVERYONE from top financial influencers to politicians who love to say they're ready to make things better without actually listening to anyone or considering REAL economic insecurity as fictional and mindless.
To address the farmer issue, nobody disbelieves farming or Ag issues aren't real but they put the same exact guy in office AGAIN that trashed their own sector the last time he was in at a rate of almost 80%.
Own-Chemist2228 | 4 hours ago
You are really trying to "both sides" this issue?
I don't know what election you were following, but Kamala Harris' core message in 2024 was about helping families who were struggling. She advocated policies such as hosing assistance, legal limits on price increases, increased child tax credits, all funded by increased corporate taxes.
Meanwhile Trump was going on about immigrants eating dogs and cats and, of course, lowering taxes for the wealthy.
I didn't really like all of The Democratic party policies, and doubt some of them would be effective. But your suggestion that "both sides" were equally tone deaf to the struggles of ordinary Americans is simply not based on fact.
artisanrox | 4 hours ago
Trump was doing all those awful things and prominent Dems on social media (not necessarily the Harris campaign) were flat out pretending financial uncertainty was imaginary because Best Economy Ever in 2023.
I mean you're doing it too. There are VERY horrible things wrong with Dem messaging and how Dem stats guys deal with financial uncertainty on social media and that's why a lot of people sat out last time.
Own-Chemist2228 | 3 hours ago
You saw something somewhere on social media that contradicted the messaging of the party leadership, and that proves that the party was horrible at messaging?
...and therefore you didn't vote?
Great job!
Qeltar_ | 3 hours ago
Stuff like this is absolutely maddening and is one of the reasons that the collective punishment known as Donald J. Trump is deserved by far more than the people in his cult.
oldirtyrestaurant | 30 minutes ago
You're a special one.
gimpwiz | 3 hours ago
So I have been reading some spilled ink on the concept of "legibility" as it applies to people sitting on top of a long ladder or tall pyramid. Like, say, national level politicians who don't do a lot of walking around town talking to people authentically and organically. What is legible to them? What can they "read" and understand? But also there is the question of timeliness that I think is key.
How many people are employed and how busy are they? These top-line numbers are reasonably easy to understand even if they miss nuance, because nuance is too broad to wrap up into a convenient statistic. For example for you, those numbers would be: how many individuals did your body shop employ this month and how many hours did they work and how much did they get paid; and how much revenue did the shop book, and what were the expenses. That is fairly legible but making it so requires significant work and time to collect the data, analyze it... and revise it as more data comes in. By the time the alarm bells are sounding because 50% of body shops have started to idle, it has been two, three months. Then the question is, is it only one part of one sector or is it a broader issue? Maybe another month or two to know for sure. So when bad times hit, it can take months of lag time to collect the statistics to show this is the case. What is obvious to you on the ground is not only not obvious to people "up there" but it may also be wrong, eg, maybe your employer is idling because they fucked up their business but everyone else is as busy as ever.
But the bond market... the basics of the bond market are simple to understand and use as heuristics, and, prices and yields move every day, published widely and available to all. When prices paid for a bond vs the face value of the bond dips, and when yields soar, that information is available within scant minutes to everyone who looks at it. Including you and me. We might have a 15 or 30 minute delay at worst. It's both legible and timely information so it's very easy to report on. It's also immediately relevant to politicians figuring out economic policy, vs the lives of peons earning modest wage.
Whaddduptho | 26 minutes ago
But the US economy is far more resilient than the economy in Ireland ever was.
morbie5 | 4 hours ago
The choices aren't even that 'hard' relatively speaking. We probably only need to get the deficit down to about 1-1.2 trillion a year. Raise taxes on everyone (in a progressive way), reform the estate/gift tax and trusts, cut defense spending, raise corpo taxes, put more limits on allowed expensive end of life treatments for Medicare, and implement some federal civil service reforms.
And then as far as social security fixes when the trust fund runs out, raise the retirement age by about two year and/or make the spousal/divorcee/widow benefit less generous, and either raise the cap a bit or make top level benefits less generous in some form
NavyDean | 5 hours ago
Hard to wage a trade war when your waging it against the top holders of US treasuries while they degrade into junk.
This only goes one way, bonds go completely worthless (unlikely) or Trump does the biggest TACO of his life as he repeals all tariffs to bring back foreign buyers to bonds.
The question is just how far the ego goes before admitting defeat.
br_k_nt_eth | 5 hours ago
Other option: midterms sweep that results in impeachment or them saying his health is bad so he needs to step down and put Vance in charge.
Own-Chemist2228 | 5 hours ago
There's no one in the Republican party with the courage to start a coup against Trump. Like any totalitarian leader, he's structured his organization to protect against it. Anyone that even suggests he be removed will be fired, outcast, branded a traitor, and likely prosecuted with sham charges.
The only Republicans left in power are those that abandoned their oath to the country in exchange for power granted by Trump. None of them are willing to take the risk. In their value system, there is nothing to gain by standing up to Trump, and much to lose.
23rdCenturySouth | 4 hours ago
> courage to start a coup against Trump
Depending how the elections go, they could be doing it out of panic - not courage.
Yvaelle | 3 hours ago
Losing your office is worth more to them than betraying Trump. A noble martyr for the MAGA cause will find a soft landing amongst their wealthy constituents doing something else. A traitor will have to flee their home and change their name, nevermind getting re-elected.
23rdCenturySouth | 3 hours ago
The wealthy donors have already started bailing on Trump so they can scheme to have the next Republican elected.
Yvaelle | 2 hours ago
Like who? Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg, Thiel, Dell, Ellison, Koch's are 8 of the top 12 richest people in USA and they are all-in on Trump.
Thiel has always been setting up Vance to follow Trump, I don't think the rest protest that so long as Vance funnels them money the way Trump has been.
Heritage is the most powerful lobby in DC and it's all in on Trump too, etc. Oil is all in on Trump, etc.
23rdCenturySouth | an hour ago
I don't remember specifics but there were at least two high profile donors (below a top 20 wealthiest tier, anyway) recently pulling the plug on some of their donations pending reviews. They're not about to cross Trump publicly, but they're not necessarily throwing even more money at the prospect of sustaining him. They may sense better returns in shorting up moderate and business-friendly democrats.
Word is that Ellison is moving to replace Weiss, and I bet Heritage is on the third revision of their novel on why Trump, and not conservatism, has failed.
Yes, it will be all the same ideas and beliefs and policies, but they're going to try to rebrand it and disassociate it from him (just like they did with Bush, and Bush before him...)
B1G_Fan | 4 hours ago
A year ago, I might agree.
But, when even folks like Matt Walsh on the Daily Wire seem to be at their wit’s end, the idea of Trump being shoved out the door immediately before or after the midterms isn’t so hard to believe.
Own-Chemist2228 | 4 hours ago
I would love to see it. I think it would be really therapeutic for the country to have a president removed from office. It would be a great reminder to the public that the Constitution is the law of the land. It would be one of the most important history lessons for generations to come.
But Trump has entrenched himself with powerful people through blatant corruption. There are many people that have a lot to lose by seeing him go. It will be an ugly fight.
I also don't think it's a sure win for Vance if he takes over for a year. That may be all he gets. Remember Gerald Ford? People actually liked him, but still voted against Nixon's VP. The country is more partisan now, so who knows?
ditchdiggergirl | 2 hours ago
If he is to be shoved out, my prediction would be that it would not happen immediately after midterms. Vance becomes eligible for two additional terms if they wait until 2 years post inauguration.
Whaddduptho | 24 minutes ago
Who is Matt Walsh? What does daily wire have to do with it?
HappilyDisengaged | 3 hours ago
Why not? He’s an ailing 80 year old blathering liar, who has lost his marbles and belongs in a home not the peoples house. Just look at what he just did: offering to sell arms to China?!? That’s impeachment material by itself. He has no idea what he’s doing
It only takes a few to stand up and I guarantee the dam will break
Own-Chemist2228 | 3 hours ago
The first to stand up will likely be arrested. Or someone in their family will be arrested.
That's not an exaggeration. The charges might not stick, but they will still have to go through hell fighting them. It will take years. Just look what they are doing to James Comey and he wasn't even remotely a political threat to Trump. Or Mark Kelly...
The choice for any Republican leader at this point is: Maintain the charade for a couple more years, or risk political suicide (or even criminal prosecution.)
Most of them have been in office for decades. Most of them have been playing corrupt politics for decades. They have no principles.
Did any of them say anything when McConnell's corpse was wheeled out on the floor to vote?
They won't even vote to release the Epstein files.
They have been looking the other way their entire careers. All of them will choose to wait out Trump's term, no matter how bad it gets. As it gets worse, they will just blame Democrats harder.
ScannerBrightly | 56 minutes ago
He's a lame duck. What's he going to do, coup us again?
[OP] KoseteBamse | 5 hours ago
Vance could potentially serve as president for a long time if takes over for Trump and then be elected twice if he take over after January 20, 2027. So 9-10 years in total.
Icy-Grab-5722 | 5 hours ago
That would be yucky. 🤮
Lalalama | 4 hours ago
Couches wouldn’t like this
MarkIsARedditAddict | 3 hours ago
I'd rather it be couches than kids
I think I just discovered vance's campaign slogan to distance himself from trump
br_k_nt_eth | 5 hours ago
I figured this was the original plan honestly. Seemed pretty clear. Too bad people don’t like Vance.
Automatic-Yam-1433 | 4 hours ago
Too bad? Do you know why people don’t like Vance?
br_k_nt_eth | 4 hours ago
Oh I mean too bad for them. Fuck Vance. I’d say that to his doughy face.
Username_Reported | 4 hours ago
That wont stop vance
Own-Chemist2228 | 4 hours ago
Who's plan? It surely wasn't Trump's plan. He never really had one except to get into power and stay until he no longer wants to be there. But the day will never come that he no longer wants to be in power. He will never give up the spotlight.
If anyone tries to start a process of replacing Trump with Vance, Trump will simply have anyone supporting the plan arrested on bogus charges. He would even arrest Vance if he had do.
He can do that because the president has all the power, the vice president has none. Remember Mike Pence? Trump threw him to the wolves the second Pence (reluctantly) sided with the Constitution over Trump.
The last thing Trump will ever do is follow a plan that involves himself conceding power.
br_k_nt_eth | 3 hours ago
Project 2027 and Thiel’s goons, but yes, they clearly overestimated their ability to rein Trump in and to be liked by even a sliver of the broader public.
gravescd | an hour ago
Cult leaders don't plan for succession. Successors are rivals who undermine the leader's authority.
br_k_nt_eth | an hour ago
Yup. Actually insane that the brilliant minds at the GOP didn’t realize this.
karl4319 | 4 hours ago
Fortunately, republicans are so toxic at the moment that his home state is about to flip. And if the bubble does pop before 2028 (seems extremely likely), then I doubt he would even win a primary in Ohio, much less actually win the general.
Vance is probably destined to be a failed author and an occasional fox news commentator much like Pence.
ZoomZoom_Driver | 4 hours ago
I'm convinced this is their plan. And on the way out, vance will pardon all of trumps treasonous actions.
snitchinbubs410 | 4 hours ago
fuck you!
0o0o0o0o0o0z | 3 hours ago
If Vance were to take over after the two-year mark of Trump's term (after January 20, 2027), that time would count as his first term limit eligibility, meaning he could only run for one more election in 2028
che-che-chester | 3 hours ago
Incorrect. The 22nd Amendment says anything less than 2 years and it doesn't count. Vance could serve two more full terms as POTUS.
0o0o0o0o0o0z | 3 hours ago
> Incorrect. The 22nd Amendment says anything less than 2 years and it doesn't count. Vance could serve two more full terms as POTUS.
I love that I dunno if the AI is wrong (which gave me the answer), literally reading the law and/or the Constitution, or what... 🤷♂️
che-che-chester | 3 hours ago
What exactly about my extremely brief response reads as AI?
0o0o0o0o0o0z | 2 hours ago
Nothing I am saying, I asked AI for that situation with JD Vance which I got "If Vance were to take over after the two-year mark of Trump's term (after January 20, 2027), that time would count as his first term limit eligibility, meaning he could only run for one more election in 2028" -- and in an age where AI is supposed to be this amazing thing, I dunno if it's correct on this or your comment.
FlarkingSmoo | 2 hours ago
It seems like the AI got it backwards. It would not make sense for it to be "if JD serves >2 years, it doesn't count against his eligibility, but if he serves<2 years, it does"
0o0o0o0o0o0z | 2 hours ago
Thanks!
HVAvenger | 2 hours ago
It's a classic AI mistake, in that it is very close, and gets the idea and details right (I believe the 01/20/2027 date is correct, but not 100% sure) - but gets the actual focal point wrong.
Flip the word "after" for "before" and it's a spot on answer.
0o0o0o0o0o0z | 2 hours ago
Thank you.
dyslexda | 2 hours ago
And this is a perfect example of why you should not actually rely on AI's answer for anything. At best take its answer and check the source it gives to confirm for yourself.
Masters_of_Sleep | 4 hours ago
They could also let the economy tank, walking back just enough tarrifs to be able to place blame for the failing economy on the incoming Democratic majority.
bill_gonorrhea | 4 hours ago
You don't need to impeach the president to rein in the tariff garbage. Congress just needs to do its job. But over the last 20 years, they seem to think their job is to do nothing and pass on responsibility to the executive.
jankyt | 4 hours ago
Other options is Dems take both houses and they reverse things while Trump claims victory for their work and another GOP president is in there in 2028
Whaddduptho | 25 minutes ago
Even if they impeach him they're not going to remove him. You're dreaming.
I don't see why they would quite truthfully.
13Krytical | an hour ago
Votes don’t matter.
Not saying don’t do it. But have realistic expectations, unless quite a few political assassinations happen, nothing is changing for the better in the next few years, regardless of what “the people” want..
br_k_nt_eth | an hour ago
Are you unfamiliar with how we got out of the Gilded Age? It just seems like if “assassinations” is your only solution, you haven’t done much reading into how other places and our own country have dealt with this stuff in the past.
13Krytical | an hour ago
Right, are any of those places as large and diverse as the United States of America?
Are any of those comparable with a time when the bad guys studied the things are taking about just as hard…
They didn’t have Flock and maga back then, nor drones and an ice army of machine gun touting death troopers…
Am I wrong?
br_k_nt_eth | 35 minutes ago
When I talk about our country, I’m talking about the US, so yes. And yes, absolutely other modern examples have had to deal with mass surveillance and groups far worse that fucking MAGA and the dipshits at ICE, particularly in sheer numbers and force.
Also, it’s pretty clear these dinguses haven’t studied our history, based on the laws they keep trotting out. They’re literally reenacting the greatest hits that one would absolutely not reenact if they had any sense.
Have you really never heard about the shift to the Progressive Era? People died. It wasn’t smooth. It wasn’t just voting. It was also successful. You should really, really check it out. That and the farmworker rights movement as well. Start with John Brown, Eugene Debbs, and the Triangle Shirtwaist Fire aftermath. Hell, read the famous “Bread and Roses” speech and see how closely it tracks to right now.
Qeltar_ | 4 hours ago
> The question is just how far the ego goes before admitting defeat.
Well, that would only be a problem if he was the world's biggest narcissist, right?
[OP] KoseteBamse | 5 hours ago
It will be interesting to see what Democrats will do if they take the House and if they have the guts to do something at all.
Own-Chemist2228 | 5 hours ago
If they don't also hold the Senate by a significant majority, it won't much matter what they do. We saw this even when Obama was in office. The house will pass legislation, it will get shut down in the Senate through threat of filibuster. And if anything passes the Senate, Trump will veto.
Republicans have one dominating policy agenda: Prevent Democrats from advancing anything.
They do not care what it costs the country. In a functioning democracy this behavior should have greatly diminished their power. But it hasn't hurt them at all in the past two decades, so they are unlikely to change course. There are very few Republicans left in power that even understand compromise or win-win.
The best we can hope for is that midterms give Democrats enough of a majority to neuter Trump until 2028, and prevent him from corrupting elections so that a Democrat can win the presidency in a fair election. Once again, in a functioning democracy this would be a certainty. But at this point it's a strong maybe, at best.
rvasko3 | 4 hours ago
Won't really matter. They won't hold enough of a congressional majority to really do anything, especially in an impeachment sense, and Trump will just veto literally anything they try to pass.
We're in a for a bad, bad two years, and even cholesterol finally doing its job doesn't just make the world better if Vance decides that his political future depends on trying to maintain the MAGA cult.
Kershiser22 | 2 hours ago
> We're in a for a bad, bad two years
Worse than the past 18 months?
rvasko3 | an hour ago
I see nothing that indicates Trump has a single incentive to give a shit about his legacy as president or working to improve conditions. He is surrounded by yes men and lives a completely separate, delusional reality. And he's still accomplishing what I believe he's only ever cared about, which is enriching himself, his family, and their business associates.
Millions and millions of Trump voters are watching their livelihoods be destroyed, and in the aftermath, they'll just became a great wave of apathetic non-voters who, rather than try to understand who will actually advocate for their well-being, will just say "All politicians are corrupt!" and pretend like they didn't make this happen.
Own-Chemist2228 | an hour ago
I agree with everything you said, except that he does care about his legacy in a very Trump-minded way.
His obsession with putting himself on monuments, money, Mt. Rushmore, etc. is his way of ensuring he enters the club of "great" presidents. Of course he doesn't comprehend that he needs to earn that honor, and that it can only bestowed by the people after his death. Or maybe he does understand and knows that he would never receive these honors, so he has to force them to happen.
It's a unique kind of pathetic, at least by American standards.
dust4ngel | an hour ago
i have a feeling that if trump can't maintain his fantasy that he'll be remembered as a hero, he'll settle for being remembered as the man who ended civilization.
SanDiegoDude | 2 hours ago
Congress has investigative authority - even if they can't get any laws past his desk, they sure af can start exploring just how corrupt this motherfucker has been for the past 2 years and just how deep it goes. Let's see how many cockroaches scatter in the light. Find enough bad shit, may even be able to convince Republicans to do the right thing (that's assuming he's still in the high 20's approval or lower of course, if that goes back up, they'll stonewall behind their orange leader)
artisanrox | 4 hours ago
> if they have the guts to do something at all.
Ugh. not too sure about this. Which is a very very subtle reason, but a reason nonetheless why bonds are skyrocketing.
boboshoes | 2 hours ago
We’re getting a mega TACO before midterms
Spinoza42 | 4 hours ago
Trump's bosses want a default, so the sky is literally the limit.
HaveAKlondike | 3 hours ago
I put more money on Mango man getting kicked out or dying on this hill. I just can’t imagine him pulling back on the main thing of his presidency.
Chronochrome | 3 hours ago
>The question is just how far the ego goes before admitting defeat.
There's no question in my mind, he will die before he ever admits defeat. He's literally incapable of it.
nerdpox | 3 hours ago
> Trump does the biggest TACO of his life as he repeals all tariffs to bring back foreign buyers to bonds.
this will never happen. tariffs are gospel to him, he's believed in them for decades. he will die before he runs that back
Zestyclose-Big7719 | 4 hours ago
At this point not much can bring back foreign buyers. Maybe an impeachment which won't happen but even so I still doubt
Industrious_Badger | 4 hours ago
He will fiddle while it burns. Europe is in real trouble. The market has been shockingly underestimating how idiotic and incapable this President is. I am a professional oil trader and have been left in awe by the depth and breadth of this mans stupidity. Its even more surprising how sensitive the market is to his tweets. This will be a banner year for traders who simply bet on the obvious: Trump is not in control, our debt is not in control. Those two trades alone will make for an early retirement.
Edit: May God have mercy on us all.
KnowledgeMediocre404 | 4 hours ago
Pretty sure there's nothing at this point that could bring bond holders back in any significant numbers. The rates it would take to overcome expected inflation would be unsustainable for the US.
rvasko3 | 4 hours ago
Is this that fabled winning that we've been hearing so much about?
This sub is probably going to have to post this headline every week now for god knows how long. I can't fathom why so many of the American people still look at the GOP as the party of fiscal responsibility and economic success. How much more data do you need?
RIP to everyone who hoped to refi their mortgage rates anytime soon.
[OP] KoseteBamse | 5 hours ago
The U.S. plans to borrow indefinitely as long they find a way to lower the interest rates.
At the moment the U.S. doesn't have a solid plan that both parties willing to implement if needed if it turns out that economy won't grow faster than debt. That plan should have been created long time ago, it just show that lots politicians doesn't take their job seriously.
Debt ceiling is a joke that doesn't work and abused to achieve different goals
Politicians don't want to make unpopular decisions because they want to stay in office and people don't want to suffer. They would rather pass these problems on to future generations.
gimpwiz | 5 hours ago
The implementation of the debt ceiling is a purposeful poison pill. When one party has a presidency, business as usual. When the other does, it's a neverending PR cudgel of "how could THEY be so wasteful, all they do is tax and waste."
Like yeah what we should do, we being the House, is pass a budget with a large deficit and then have an entirely separate vote four times a year on whether we're going to borrow money to pay our deficit or if we should just shut down the government and maybe default. That's what we should do. Debating the debt ceiling during budget time is obviously the wrong time to do it, let's just do brinksmanship later.
Ericovich | 5 hours ago
Makes me wonder if the housing market will have a hiccup or people buy now before interest rates go any higher.
Almost a percent up in a month with no clear path downwards is scary.
303uru | 2 hours ago
A housing disaster is in the making as far as I see it. Take my inlaws situation, they have a second home in the mountains, it's a good chunk of their "retirement savings." Most of their life the number has just ticked up and up. They refinanced it several years back at 2.25%. They're now getting ready to sell and lo and behold, there is no one to sell too. You see for the past 30+ years the same group of boomers were essentially swapping these things, younger entrants to the secondary housing market never existed. They've moved between 6 different cabins in the same area over the last 40 years and I asked them how old was they buyer each time, "always about our age." Hmm, see any potential problem with that?
But now boomers are looking to get rid of their second homes for retirement savings, downsizing, etc... and there exists no market to purchase them. My inlaws are looking at listings around them that have been up for over a year now and anything selling is going for 25% under asking. I tried to get them to sell during COVID when there was demand, they scoffed at me. Now they're stuck. I think this tale plays out across the market for primary and secondary homes, boomers with low rates and their retirement caught up in their house are expecting to make money on their home but there exists no market to purchase them.
Ericovich | 2 hours ago
I see this attitude a lot.
"Of course someone will want my property."
They're deeply arrogant. I remember when Mom renovated their house (in their style) to sell and they were annoyed the buyer gutted it. They made a big deal about including the hydraulic car lift in the sale, only for the buyer to sell it immediately.
Electrical-Box-4845 | 2 hours ago
Open gates of hell , i mean illegal imigration doors again and let illegal aliens buying 500k houses with 10$/h jobs (or even better, unemployed)
house market + GDP will go brrrrrrrrrrr again
Worse schools, healthcare, crimes? Who cares? A price has to be paid for keeping number 1 economy on abolute numbers when others countries have 1 billion people
WellHung67 | 2 hours ago
THANKS TRUMP.
What were you guys doing during the end of the American empire? I think once the recession hits, we should tax Trump voters to fund the non Trump voters. I know that will total like two cents and a couple of loose teeth but it’s about sending a message
Whaddduptho | 28 minutes ago
It's partially because the economy is running hot. Partially because of the war in Iran. Partially because of the war in Ukraine.
Atlanta fed is estimating 5% real gdp growth for Q3.