Because coding is no longer scarce, we are abandoning the commons for a million Kakapos. This will only stay possible as long as the tokens keep flowing.
And this is why we have companies and investment firms pouring 100's of billions of dollars into AI junk. Because it will partition the powerful open-source commons of the last 30 years into a million little boutique solutions, all paying rent to the AI models.
There is definitely a "rent seeking" angle from the big AI providers. It's their whole model. We need the government to step in and offer tokens as a utility.
But the broader issue is economic. We should let the government have a pool of money to fund open source projects so the commons stay viable even as private companies leave.
Two reasons, overall AI costs are getting higher because per token is getting cheaper. Jevons Paradox means aggregate spend on LLMs will only go up.
Second and more depressing is Limits to Growth. Energy costs at some point will get much higher because they have to. We can't keep growing on a finite planet so eventually that growth will stop. Either we stop it through policy, or we see organized human life collapse.
What’s wrong if overall spending on AI goes up? That’s a sure way unit cost goes down and it becomes even more widely available.
The second statement assumes no technological advances. Given a world with rapid and widespread advances in AI we can assume the opposite: an acceleration in all fields of science and technology.
Oh wow, those are stunning. As a Kiwi, seeing more Kākāpō items would be super cool. Might be time to get a couple Christmas presents early, thanks for the post!
icefox | 11 hours ago
And this is why we have companies and investment firms pouring 100's of billions of dollars into AI junk. Because it will partition the powerful open-source commons of the last 30 years into a million little boutique solutions, all paying rent to the AI models.
[OP] mempko | 10 hours ago
There is definitely a "rent seeking" angle from the big AI providers. It's their whole model. We need the government to step in and offer tokens as a utility.
But the broader issue is economic. We should let the government have a pool of money to fund open source projects so the commons stay viable even as private companies leave.
gerikson | 10 hours ago
Just tax the companies 25% and accept payment in tokens.
[OP] mempko | 9 hours ago
If the government does that, they are turning tokens into money. Imagine if I can pay my taxes in tokens. hmmm
zladuric | 7 hours ago
Am interesting experiment would be for a government to solve the copyright etc problem by just sending copyright and intellectual property void.
The fight that would ensue would be colossal.
kghose | 6 hours ago
Why would anyone think AI costs will get higher when we have a century long trend of compute getting cheaper?
[OP] mempko | 6 hours ago
Two reasons, overall AI costs are getting higher because per token is getting cheaper. Jevons Paradox means aggregate spend on LLMs will only go up.
Second and more depressing is Limits to Growth. Energy costs at some point will get much higher because they have to. We can't keep growing on a finite planet so eventually that growth will stop. Either we stop it through policy, or we see organized human life collapse.
kghose | 2 hours ago
What’s wrong if overall spending on AI goes up? That’s a sure way unit cost goes down and it becomes even more widely available.
The second statement assumes no technological advances. Given a world with rapid and widespread advances in AI we can assume the opposite: an acceleration in all fields of science and technology.
[OP] mempko | an hour ago
The Limits to Growth models accounted for that. Doesn't change the trajectory. Growth will end.
bmo | 6 hours ago
Tokens are a subsidized loss leader product while compute is a commodity.
simonw | 6 hours ago
I'm going to use this as an opportunity to show off my new set of Kākāpō nesting bowls, by artist Karen James. They're absolutely delightful.
[OP] mempko | 5 hours ago
These are absolutely adorable!
jessicah | 4 hours ago
Oh wow, those are stunning. As a Kiwi, seeing more Kākāpō items would be super cool. Might be time to get a couple Christmas presents early, thanks for the post!