I get a lot of value from prediction markets and query for them most days. Today for the Los Angeles Mayor's race and the Kentucky 4th district Representative race. In both cases I saw a big difference between the market and the vibe on my feeds. I believe that the market emits higher quality predictions.
Each market is a community with a financial incentive to think outside of the bubble.
Those markets create pressure to ensure that real physical goods and useful services are priced accurately. Prediction “markets“ are in my estimation no different than roulette.
If you cross your eyes hard enough, you could claim that roulette gambling provides economic pressure to ensure that roulette wheels are balanced evenly. But when the roulette wheel is Vanah White’s dress color, what does that mean? Charitably, it’s a fun pass time. Through a dystopian lens, prediction markets pressure all public figures to play a kind of Keynsian Beauty Contest with their own behavior. Like social cooling for the celebrity/owning class.
there is one upside, its a big incentive to indirectly leak things like album release dates and military operations. anything that helps get some secrets out is a positive in my book
No, this doesn't work. Predictions markets can only resolve to things that are publicly verifiable, so any leaked information is information that was destined to become public anyway. Furthermore, the leaker is disincentivized to leak in such a way that the act of leaking could compromise their insider knowlege; the structure of the markets means that leakers don't want you to have this information in any way that opponents could usefully invalidate.
They're just gambling. I'm not trying to argue for or against gambling here, but please stop trying to delude yourselves into thinking these gambling sites are anything other than gambling.
There's the same upside as pretty much all other forms of gambling. Plenty of people enjoy it and it can be used to generate tax revenue for the state.
Don't get me wrong, there's tons of harm that can come from it, but the arguments to allow them are essentially the same arguments for allowing sports betting.
This is true, however many of those arguments are weaker when applied to things for which the outcome is more consequential than the outcome of a sporting game.
Whenever I see something weird happen in a sports game, or even a lack of effort by individual players, my first thought is if sports betting was responsible.
as the article notes, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC as a commodities futures contract, so I'm not sure how any state law survives a federal pre-emption challenge. On the other hand, it's a little unusual to see a federal agency suing to protect its turf. Would've expected a class action by a Minnesota user of the service to bring the challenge instead.
I'm curious to see how this works out, because sports betting is _not_ in the CFTC's remit, and Kalshi etc's argument that states can't regulate them because they're not technically sports betting is contrary to the spirit of the law
SCOTUS will probably soon rule that extracting wealth from alienated gamblers is a fundamental American right, that the founding fathers had in mind when drafting the constitution.
The difference in my mind is that prediction markets and gambling are betting on outcomes, not long term behaviors. You could make the argument that they are the same, in the sense that buying a stock is "betting" on a company to do well, but I think you'd be making a silly argument. Stocks are intangible these days, but they were traditionally a physical thing that one would trade. If you're betting on prediction markets, there's nothing to trade after the event happens, just payouts.
Stocks are shares of ownership. Now, in practice many people buy them as bets, but even those aren't really predictions. Prediction markets are time-boxed all-or-nothing plays. You are either correct, or you lose your entire stake.
Now yes, people bet on the derivative value of those ownership shares... but that also happens to basically every asset. If a stock is a prediction market, then so is corn, and gold, and your home.
Couldn’t we say that any market rewards prediction? And that this is generally seen as a beneficial quality that results in more accurate valuations with better liquidity?
For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting.
We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider trading or morally wrong fall a bit flat when you realize that traditional sportsbooks let you bet on things like college basketball player props and the little league world series.
I'm still not sure Minnesota will win their case, but it feels like that detail gives them a lot better chance of winning compared to many other states.
I think you could make a case in separating the two, of course opening further discussion, but because sports betting takes place in a comparatively very controlled environment I think the risk profile is pretty different versus, idk, betting that the temperate will be at or above a certain point and then someone sticks a hair dryer on the thermostat[1]. Cheating can happen in sports of course, but the risk profile and real-world impact I think is quite a bit different. Worth discussing, but I think that's an important distinction.
Separately, I believe over time that prediction markets will become the source of real world truth. Why? Because money is at stake and so validity and verification matter. It'll be interesting to see how, if this comes to fruition, how laws in states like Minnesota affect news reporting and journalism. It seems likely to me that at a certain point prediction markets will buy traditional media and news outlets to hire out the fact-finding and reporting teams to ensure ground truth, and of course to use journalism as the gateway to the market. So you read an article "China disappears random person" and then at the end you click a button and bet whether that person is alive or dead or whatever.
> I think you could make a case in separating the two, of course opening further discussion, but because sports betting takes place in a comparatively very controlled environment I think the risk profile is pretty different versus, idk, betting that the temperate will be at or above a certain point and then someone sticks a hair dryer on the thermostat[1]. Cheating can happen in sports of course, but the risk profile and real-world impact I think is quite a bit different. Worth discussing, but I think that's an important distinction.
That's kind of the point I was getting that. That's not really an argument about prediction markets, it's about what things should we be allowed to bet on.
I'm looking at FanDuel right now and I can bet on 1v1 eSports games of FIFA. The bets aren't even just who will win, but it's things like how many goals will a team score or who will score first. During the last Superbowl books were offering bets on things like what color tie the announcers would wear. I get that there's maybe a slight difference between that and betting on what words a sports announcer will say during the broadcast, but IMO, you're splitting hairs. They're both very easily to manipulate and very open to insider trading.
I think you probably agree with this, but IMO, there needs to be two separate conversations. One, are prediction markets sportsbooks by another name? Two, are there certain markets that we should not allow betting on?
Personally, I think the answer to both of those is yes, but I think if you smush them together into one conversation it makes things really messy.
> So you read an article "China disappears random person" and then at the end you click a button and bet whether that person is alive or dead or whatever.
So think really hard about what the problem with this whole concept might be...
I mean, that's exactly why a state has the right to regulate this, historically it has been an extremely regulated activity. You can personally feel however you want, but the fact that a state does allow sports betting does not diminish this even slightly.
This has been banned for generations. It's called gambling.
Of course, we all have to sit through another round of Silicon Valley pretending they've discovered some new exciting business model that's just vice.
Unlicensed gypsy cabs, SROs, shift work, patent medicines, narcotics dealing, customs fraud, and smuggling already had established market entrants I guess.
But I thought the Supreme Court said online sports betting was interstate commerce and out of the domain of state legislation. Or did I get that completely wrong?
> The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.
That's a creative interpretation by NPR. The law doesn't mention VPNs. The law bans:
> provid[ing] supportive services to a prediction market or consumer knowing that the services will be used to identify a consumer’s location, transfer money, or make or process payments for the purpose of allowing consumers to make wagers or to settle wagers made by consumers in violation of this section.
There should be a ban on the instagram reels showing gambling like it's not a big deal. They are deliberately targeting teens and it's quite sickening.
If you work at one of these companies it's the same as working for a payday loan company. You are making blood money.
I could imagine cases where prediction markets could offer some actual insight, but in practice they seem few and far between. Most markets I've seen devolve into one or more of: betting on unimportant events (e.g. sports games), insider trading, or poorly written ambiguous resolution criteria. It's just hard for me to imagine that, on net, these markets will offer more societal good than the harm we've seen from sports betting.
VikingCoder | 2 hours ago
hootz | an hour ago
superfrank | 52 minutes ago
> EFFECTIVE DATE This section is effective August 1, 2026, and applies to crimes committed on or after that date.
everdrive | 2 hours ago
nom | 2 hours ago
stock_toaster | 2 hours ago
At the very least maybe it would make the advertising (tv, college campuses, etc) of prediction markets illegal in Minnesota?
That alone seems like a good thing.
delichon | an hour ago
Each market is a community with a financial incentive to think outside of the bubble.
rizzom5000 | an hour ago
free_bip | an hour ago
justonceokay | an hour ago
If you cross your eyes hard enough, you could claim that roulette gambling provides economic pressure to ensure that roulette wheels are balanced evenly. But when the roulette wheel is Vanah White’s dress color, what does that mean? Charitably, it’s a fun pass time. Through a dystopian lens, prediction markets pressure all public figures to play a kind of Keynsian Beauty Contest with their own behavior. Like social cooling for the celebrity/owning class.
bronson | an hour ago
tancop | an hour ago
kibwen | 48 minutes ago
They're just gambling. I'm not trying to argue for or against gambling here, but please stop trying to delude yourselves into thinking these gambling sites are anything other than gambling.
freejazz | 45 minutes ago
superfrank | 45 minutes ago
There's the same upside as pretty much all other forms of gambling. Plenty of people enjoy it and it can be used to generate tax revenue for the state.
Don't get me wrong, there's tons of harm that can come from it, but the arguments to allow them are essentially the same arguments for allowing sports betting.
kube-system | 28 minutes ago
ungreased0675 | 11 minutes ago
1899-12-30 | an hour ago
mark212 | an hour ago
ranger207 | an hour ago
nojito | an hour ago
SoftTalker | an hour ago
nojito | an hour ago
They charge trading fees.
hilariously | 57 minutes ago
dymk | 34 minutes ago
tshaddox | 45 minutes ago
jimt1234 | an hour ago
kevin_thibedeau | 33 minutes ago
This is Don Jr's consulting fee at work.
thallium205 | 20 minutes ago
SilverElfin | an hour ago
tardedmeme | an hour ago
thrance | 23 minutes ago
tardedmeme | an hour ago
foobarchu | an hour ago
steve1977 | an hour ago
wnc3141 | an hour ago
foobarchu | an hour ago
nojito | an hour ago
SoftTalker | 58 minutes ago
kube-system | 53 minutes ago
Now yes, people bet on the derivative value of those ownership shares... but that also happens to basically every asset. If a stock is a prediction market, then so is corn, and gold, and your home.
rizzom5000 | 43 minutes ago
ahepp | 23 minutes ago
calvinmorrison | an hour ago
superfrank | 57 minutes ago
We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider trading or morally wrong fall a bit flat when you realize that traditional sportsbooks let you bet on things like college basketball player props and the little league world series.
I'm still not sure Minnesota will win their case, but it feels like that detail gives them a lot better chance of winning compared to many other states.
ericmay | 43 minutes ago
Separately, I believe over time that prediction markets will become the source of real world truth. Why? Because money is at stake and so validity and verification matter. It'll be interesting to see how, if this comes to fruition, how laws in states like Minnesota affect news reporting and journalism. It seems likely to me that at a certain point prediction markets will buy traditional media and news outlets to hire out the fact-finding and reporting teams to ensure ground truth, and of course to use journalism as the gateway to the market. So you read an article "China disappears random person" and then at the end you click a button and bet whether that person is alive or dead or whatever.
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/polymarke...
superfrank | 30 minutes ago
That's kind of the point I was getting that. That's not really an argument about prediction markets, it's about what things should we be allowed to bet on.
I'm looking at FanDuel right now and I can bet on 1v1 eSports games of FIFA. The bets aren't even just who will win, but it's things like how many goals will a team score or who will score first. During the last Superbowl books were offering bets on things like what color tie the announcers would wear. I get that there's maybe a slight difference between that and betting on what words a sports announcer will say during the broadcast, but IMO, you're splitting hairs. They're both very easily to manipulate and very open to insider trading.
I think you probably agree with this, but IMO, there needs to be two separate conversations. One, are prediction markets sportsbooks by another name? Two, are there certain markets that we should not allow betting on?
Personally, I think the answer to both of those is yes, but I think if you smush them together into one conversation it makes things really messy.
XorNot | 22 minutes ago
So think really hard about what the problem with this whole concept might be...
ericmay | 20 minutes ago
quaddoggy | 29 minutes ago
Canterbury Park would like a word…
CPLX | 26 minutes ago
This has been banned for generations. It's called gambling. Of course, we all have to sit through another round of Silicon Valley pretending they've discovered some new exciting business model that's just vice.
Unlicensed gypsy cabs, SROs, shift work, patent medicines, narcotics dealing, customs fraud, and smuggling already had established market entrants I guess.
rdataguy | 22 minutes ago
bmelton | 15 minutes ago
> "congress can regulate sports gambling directly, but if it elects not to do so, each state is free to act on its own."
OsrsNeedsf2P | 45 minutes ago
I'm sorry, what the fuck?
kube-system | 35 minutes ago
> provid[ing] supportive services to a prediction market or consumer knowing that the services will be used to identify a consumer’s location, transfer money, or make or process payments for the purpose of allowing consumers to make wagers or to settle wagers made by consumers in violation of this section.
"knowing" is key here.
sergiotapia | 40 minutes ago
If you work at one of these companies it's the same as working for a payday loan company. You are making blood money.
kube-system | 24 minutes ago
mghackerlady | 38 minutes ago
rebekkamikkoa | 31 minutes ago
elictronic | 16 minutes ago
CPLX | 29 minutes ago
Of course, we all have to sit through another round of Silicon Valley pretending they've discovered some new exciting business model that's just vice.
Unlicensed gypsy cabs, SROs, shift work, patent medicines, narcotics dealing, customs fraud, and smuggling already had established market entrants I guess.
Imnimo | 22 minutes ago
Robotbeat | 18 minutes ago
yamillove | 11 minutes ago