They held off on increases the rate right before the election to please daddy Trump. Now they have to increase even more. If the affair with a chinese spy, failed profit realizations, trillions in debt and unbreakable contracts, and disappointmented IPO launches don't trigger the burst this year, high rates will.
Yeah, until today perhaps I suppose, US stocks haven't been trading on rate fears, it's been AI fears. You can even look at the QQQ/TLT pair and see the Nasdaq going down while bonds are bid since last month.
If this sticks (good chance it does), this finally looks more like a 2022 style day US stock wise except for the oil sector being down a percent (granted, these types of days have been happening on occasion, it's just not been consistent).
This is not 2022 what are you smoking? Futures have been pricing in 2+ hikes for a very long time now. One days reaction does not change the overall narrative that much, especially considering the recent fall in oil prices.
Relating to oil pricing, I’m seeing 1/4 cars be EVs, and expecting their demand to double in the near future.—this is only a portion of the market for that commodity, sure.
The infrastructure for charging across the SE US is becoming well adopted. Even comparing costs at super chargers it makes a ton of sense that US motorists could transition depending on their regional availability.
I would not be extremely excited about rebuilding an oil field right now.
How are you making comparisons to market action in 2022 when the literal fundamental driver of market action then, a complete repricing of discount rate expectations, is not a factor here in any capacity?
I am and will never stop because people still like to say that it's always as easy as hurr durr, 10 year yield up, tech gets hammered, when that's not been the case.
The expectation was 70-30 against a consecutive rate hike and the Fed has by default a "wait and see" approach. Trump doesn't have the pull over the Fed that he, and you, think he does.
Now, I do agree that they should have had a rate hike last meeting, but I'm a "If all I have is a hammer" sicko, and I'm not a Fed board member for a good reason.
It’s so funny that we’re watching the Fed utter hawkish rhetoric left and right as well as hike rates and there’s still mouthbreathers in this sub that think they’re somehow trying to appease Trump lol.
Well, something is definitely going to break. Constantly raising rates may fight inflation (and may not) but it is causing a whole lot of problems elsewhere. It's hard to really see them seriously maintaining a hiking posture and keeping it there for very long.
I think some of it is going to depend on what happens politically over the next two months. Perhaps a lot of it.
If there are actual signs that the war is going to wind down, that will probably cause them to delay making too many changes while they see what it does.
At the same time, they will need to keep an eye on the AI bubble and the real estate market, the latter of which is going to get more and more locked up if rates keep going higher.
I know it goes against the fed watch tool and what expectations are for the next fed meeting but for some reason I just feel like they are not raising rates in the next meeting. We could very well be seeing growth fall off if we are actually expecting to cut and limit data center projects. The AI build out is such a large part of our GDP now if we handicap that, growth is gonna fall off a cliff
It was always going to be handicapped. Either by the power infrastructure, lack of advanced chips, running out of venture capital, or by people who go NIMBY with datacenters.
The idea that your average consumer knows or cares about the fed is laughable. And here's an even dirtier little secret [whisper voice]: they don't care about interest rates either. Consumers care about access to debt; so long as they can open and max new credit cards, buy $80,000 trucks with 7 year loans, etc. they don't care about the rate.
Of course the timing is exactly what was planned. The writing was on the wall but they intentionally delayed until after the midterms, and not that the Dems dominated, expect a half point hike and grandpa will blame the Dems and will continue to complain about how the Dems ruined the economy for the next 2 years.
If the fed really wants to crush inflation once and for all then they need to jack rates up so damn high it kills the economy a bit and then inflation will be back under the feds control.
rate hike from dovish fed? they should have hiked last meeting and didnt. they will hike next? i seriously doubt it. they will just let bond market do the job confirming rising higher inflation and higher yield.
karl4319 | 2 hours ago
They held off on increases the rate right before the election to please daddy Trump. Now they have to increase even more. If the affair with a chinese spy, failed profit realizations, trillions in debt and unbreakable contracts, and disappointmented IPO launches don't trigger the burst this year, high rates will.
CptnAlex | 2 hours ago
The market has expected a December rate hike for like 5 months. I don’t think most members of the FOMC give a damn what trump thinks
95Daphne | an hour ago
Yeah, until today perhaps I suppose, US stocks haven't been trading on rate fears, it's been AI fears. You can even look at the QQQ/TLT pair and see the Nasdaq going down while bonds are bid since last month.
If this sticks (good chance it does), this finally looks more like a 2022 style day US stock wise except for the oil sector being down a percent (granted, these types of days have been happening on occasion, it's just not been consistent).
belovedkid | 45 minutes ago
This is not 2022 what are you smoking? Futures have been pricing in 2+ hikes for a very long time now. One days reaction does not change the overall narrative that much, especially considering the recent fall in oil prices.
crowcawer | 23 minutes ago
Relating to oil pricing, I’m seeing 1/4 cars be EVs, and expecting their demand to double in the near future.—this is only a portion of the market for that commodity, sure.
The infrastructure for charging across the SE US is becoming well adopted. Even comparing costs at super chargers it makes a ton of sense that US motorists could transition depending on their regional availability.
I would not be extremely excited about rebuilding an oil field right now.
95Daphne | 21 minutes ago
Where did I suggest this was a complete copy and paste of 22? Sigh.
This is more talking market action instead of suggesting that CPI/PCE inflation will be going to 5-6%ish or that markets would be surprised by a hike.
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 15 minutes ago
How are you making comparisons to market action in 2022 when the literal fundamental driver of market action then, a complete repricing of discount rate expectations, is not a factor here in any capacity?
95Daphne | 12 minutes ago
I am and will never stop because people still like to say that it's always as easy as hurr durr, 10 year yield up, tech gets hammered, when that's not been the case.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 27 minutes ago
2022?? Fixed income markets have had hike expectations priced in since May or so my man, what are you talking about??
MEDICARE_FOR_ALL | an hour ago
Expected a rate hike, sure. I think most were expecting .25 though?
CptnAlex | 57 minutes ago
Yes but it’s market effects. It has nothing to do with trump
karl4319 | 22 minutes ago
Inflation is primarily from the tariffs and the Iran war
OrangeJr36 | an hour ago
The expectation was 70-30 against a consecutive rate hike and the Fed has by default a "wait and see" approach. Trump doesn't have the pull over the Fed that he, and you, think he does.
Now, I do agree that they should have had a rate hike last meeting, but I'm a "If all I have is a hammer" sicko, and I'm not a Fed board member for a good reason.
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 48 minutes ago
It’s so funny that we’re watching the Fed utter hawkish rhetoric left and right as well as hike rates and there’s still mouthbreathers in this sub that think they’re somehow trying to appease Trump lol.
Qeltar_ | an hour ago
Well, something is definitely going to break. Constantly raising rates may fight inflation (and may not) but it is causing a whole lot of problems elsewhere. It's hard to really see them seriously maintaining a hiking posture and keeping it there for very long.
Jdobbs07 | an hour ago
I think after the next rate hike the fed will hold for a couple meetings in 2027 and then is gonna have to start cutting again
Qeltar_ | an hour ago
I think some of it is going to depend on what happens politically over the next two months. Perhaps a lot of it.
If there are actual signs that the war is going to wind down, that will probably cause them to delay making too many changes while they see what it does.
At the same time, they will need to keep an eye on the AI bubble and the real estate market, the latter of which is going to get more and more locked up if rates keep going higher.
carlos_the_dwarf_ | an hour ago
Please stop repeating this. They hiked unanimously against his wishes just recently.
Preme2 | an hour ago
You were begging for rate increases, they finally want to give you rate increases and now you’re whining and complaining per usual.
karl4319 | an hour ago
Who is complaining? The bubble bursting now is much better than adding another couple of trillion to it to pop next year.
Jdobbs07 | an hour ago
I know it goes against the fed watch tool and what expectations are for the next fed meeting but for some reason I just feel like they are not raising rates in the next meeting. We could very well be seeing growth fall off if we are actually expecting to cut and limit data center projects. The AI build out is such a large part of our GDP now if we handicap that, growth is gonna fall off a cliff
karl4319 | an hour ago
It was always going to be handicapped. Either by the power infrastructure, lack of advanced chips, running out of venture capital, or by people who go NIMBY with datacenters.
TheHomersapien | an hour ago
The idea that your average consumer knows or cares about the fed is laughable. And here's an even dirtier little secret [whisper voice]: they don't care about interest rates either. Consumers care about access to debt; so long as they can open and max new credit cards, buy $80,000 trucks with 7 year loans, etc. they don't care about the rate.
cheddarben | 2 hours ago
So, better than expected jobs report, a fairly strong GDP estimate, and worse than expected inflation report that is going in the wrong direction.
hmmm.... I wonder where this might be going?
PlanetCosmoX | an hour ago
Jobs was strong due to election spending, its a transient boost. Those ppl are now unemployed.
Basically, disregard jobs report. It’s inaccurate due to election.
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 47 minutes ago
Jobs are adjusted for seasonality, and the areas with job gains had nothing to do with election spending.
PlanetCosmoX | 9 minutes ago
It’s not seasonal and you’re expecting too much.
The boost is due to election, the areas you’re referring to only contributed.
We’ll see in December, although that will be muddled by seasonal.
HeatWaveToTheCrowd | 32 minutes ago
Of course the timing is exactly what was planned. The writing was on the wall but they intentionally delayed until after the midterms, and not that the Dems dominated, expect a half point hike and grandpa will blame the Dems and will continue to complain about how the Dems ruined the economy for the next 2 years.
HistorianOk142 | an hour ago
If the fed really wants to crush inflation once and for all then they need to jack rates up so damn high it kills the economy a bit and then inflation will be back under the feds control.
Overall_Issue_2482 | an hour ago
rate hike from dovish fed? they should have hiked last meeting and didnt. they will hike next? i seriously doubt it. they will just let bond market do the job confirming rising higher inflation and higher yield.