‘The stakes are enormous’: how a prolonged Iran war could shock the global economy

349 points by Vengeful_Pathogen 22 hours ago on reddit | 44 comments

[OP] Vengeful_Pathogen | 22 hours ago

With each day, more problems are emerging. From the soaring price of petrol and diesel for motorists, to cancelled flights and the worst travel disruption since the Covid pandemic.

tweak06 | 20 hours ago

>cancelled flights

I already got notifications that my flight is being moved to a a different goddamn day

the FIRST vacation I take in 10 goddamn years and now because of this shit I may not even be able to do it because I’m at the whims of a chimp with a machine gun

I’m so, so tired of the shit, man. God fucking damnit.

I’m gonna go lay down.

bork99 | 14 hours ago

>I’m so, so tired of the shit, man. God fucking damnit.

Second comma is optional.

horseradishstalker | 7 hours ago

Standard for voice to text.

tweak06 | 7 hours ago

I’m glad that’s what you took away from this 😂

RegisterElectronic78 | 21 hours ago

i felt this during the last crisis

Buwski | 20 hours ago

Are you talking about the one from last month?

[OP] Vengeful_Pathogen | 19 hours ago

This month alone we're looking at 3 major crisis, thank whatever you believe in February only has 28 days otherwise March would've had pick up the pace.

Buwski | 19 hours ago

Incredible what happened in the last year, i just say this. Not even half of Trump administration

The_Wolf_Of_Midnight | 20 hours ago

This is why shoot-from-the-hip manchildren grifters should never be elected President. Especially ones who raped kids on a sex trafficker's private island. MAGA are the dumbest voters in U.S. history.

It's mind boggling how dumb they are to still be defending their bad decision even as he tanks the global economy, does almost the opposite of everything they wanted despite him basically telling them that he would, and all so they can be 50% more racist in public.

Years and millions of people telling them this would happen, literal road maps of his real intentions in project 2025, his history as a shit businessman and convicted fraudster, and being born a spoiled rich kid and then becoming a draft dodger like all his ancestors: apparently not good enough clues.

I'm going to make ot my life's mission to remind Republicans how stupid they are, and of this fuck up which proves it inarguably, until my dying day.

vineyardmike | 22 hours ago

Trump will pull back before the midterms and then claim he brought down gas prices. Republicans will believe him.

Successful_Gas_5122 | 21 hours ago

There's no unringing this bell. Iran will respond, and you better believe it's gonna be asymmetric. Get ready for War on Terror 2.0, only this time the people in charge are even bigger morons.

vineyardmike | 14 hours ago

We could have a generation of terrorist attacks. All to delay the obvious truth that Trump is a pedophile.

philomathie | 19 hours ago

Ask yourself how America would react from a completely unprovoked attack that deliberately attacked civilians, civilian infrastructure, and killed thousands...

spudmarsupial | 16 hours ago

They would cheer Trump and say the victims deserved it.

Oh wait, you mean if Iran did it? How the fuck would Iran hit mainland USA?

Hang on, we know the answer to this. The USA would stop investigating irregularities in the election, create a department for witch hunting Americans, kidnap Americans and hold them without charge, and suspend a lot of civil liberties that the US claimed to be based on. Oh, and invade Afghanistan because of evidence that Saudi Arabia perpetrated the attack.

whateverthefuck666 | 16 hours ago

> a completely unprovoked attack

What

irregular_caffeine | 12 hours ago

They might bomb someone, invade even?

No, they just go full 1933 on the american people.

fosterbuster | 15 hours ago

“unprovoked”.

I’m curious to hear, what you think is going on in Iran.

Outsider-Trading | 12 hours ago

"Trump single-handedly chose to invade Iran because he wanted to distract from the Epstein files"

This is literally the depth of insight of half of "intellectual" TrueReddit.

horseradishstalker | 7 hours ago

Does that really matter if it’s true? Both Trump and Natanyahu  are facing significant legal and moral problems in their respective countries. Distraction  is a common human attempt to shift attention.

CharlesBeckford | 13 hours ago

When are the midterms?

horseradishstalker | 7 hours ago

Only if all those stickers that can be put on the pump on Etsy blaming Trump for gas prices don’t succeed. /s

Fuddle | 22 hours ago

“Goldman Sachs told clients it expected temporary disruption. “Oil prices to decline throughout the year. But risks are skewed to the upside,” its analysts wrote. UniCredit suggested crude would be capped at about $80 a barrel. “Given its struggle for survival, the Iranian regime has an incentive to keep its response measured”.”

I’m sorry, this entire analysis is assuming both the U.S. and Iran are acting rationally. Why? Nothing about the current leadership in either country is acting rationally.

Successful_Gas_5122 | 21 hours ago

Iranian leadership is behaving perfectly rationally. Closing the Strait will hurt the US way more than killing the Ayatollah has hurt Iran.

peteft | 13 hours ago

Why? Wouldn’t they eventually face severe financial consequences - no oil sales, no stream of income- how are they going to pay their millions of combatants in iran?

nostrademons | an hour ago

Latest intel is that they’ve turned it into a checkpoint. You can pass the straight if you are from a friendly nation (eg India, China, or Russia) and pay them $2M. Also, Iranian oil exports have increased since the war started.

Between the tolls, Iran’s ability to ship oil with impunity, and the increased price of oil, Iran’s finances have never been better.

Successful_Gas_5122 | 13 hours ago

Supposedly they can keep it closed for up to six months, at least according to US intelligence. If that’s true, then that suggests the Iranian regime squirrelled away massive reserve funds for just this occasion. They’re definitely going to suffer long term, but Trump fucked himself and the US big time. Full closure of the Strait is going to mean even more skyrocketing gas prices.

WhyAmINotStudying | 18 hours ago

The greatest danger of fake news in 2026 is that AI models are looking at these articles as dependable and factual information. It's predicting what the markets are saying, which is that this will all be cleared up by the end of the year. The last time shit got this bad was never, but it was close and it caused the strait to be closed for four years.

AI isn't going to solve this problem.

Neither-Wallaby-924 | 15 hours ago

Four fucking YEARS?!?!

thelordofunderpants | 12 hours ago

You must realize institutions like GS, JPM etc. Will advice their top clients, and general public with different bits of information. I'm not saying they will outright lie, but general public will never received the actual analysis, just a optimistic spin of it.

The-cultured-swine39 | 22 hours ago

Those who protested the 24 election and stayed home really showed us.

respectwalk | 21 hours ago

Jill Fucking Stein

Spez_is-a-nazi | 21 hours ago

Her Russian bosses are quite pleased with her.

Prestigious_Yak8551 | 19 hours ago

Australia's biggest enemy, the one doing the most damage to our country, is the USA.

Kom34 | 5 hours ago

And we still have his followers here, I talk to parents who are die hard trumpers as he ruins their kids futures and their lives and hurts our country and none of them are US citizens.

Social media propaganda is a powerful drug.

SeeMarkFly | 19 hours ago

The stakes are enormous and the man is stupid.

This will not end well...FOR US

Standard-Square-7699 | 21 hours ago

shock

geraldinep3tal8740 | 21 hours ago

sometimes ignoring doesn't solve everything

Impossible_Walrus555 | 18 hours ago

Doh

protoanarchist | 13 hours ago

Yup. But here's the punchline: Average Americans barely know what's going on or simply don't care.

They are so mentally isolated, other parts of the world feel to them like fiction. Lands far far away that could just as easily be made up.