TLDR: Economists are providing gloomy forecasts, the jobs data, consumer sentiment, and inflation numbers look bad, but some big investment banking “We’re always in a bull market,” investors say, “It can’t be that bad,” so cheer up buttercup! We’re getting 2.9 percent GDP growth by the end of 2025 based on some good feelings.
In other words, the people who know what they're talking about are forecasting a recession and the delusional greedmongers who always fail to see the bucket they're about to step in think we're fine.
>Bear Stearns is fine. Do not take your money out. If there’s one takeaway, Bear Stearns is not in trouble. I mean, if anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear. That’s just being silly. Don’t be silly.
Nah, they are not delusional. Bankers are smart people. They are protecting their own interest/investment and trying to prevent panic selling (before they unload)
You know the scene in that movie where Steve Carell goes to the convention and the rich douchebag is being a condescending dick to him, and as soon as he gets out of the meeting Carell tells his assistant "find out everything that guy has money in and short all of it"?
The people saying "don't worry, we're going to have 2.9% growth" are that rich douchebag.
2008 was a financial disaster that nearly sent the world into a deep depression. Credit markets were frozen, so all the banks stopped lending to each other and average businesses just completely shut down as they couldn't get short term financing for day to day operations.
Society cannot function without credit. We were hours away from a complete collapse of the financial system. ATM's would've stopped working, there would've been a run on every bank in the country, and supermarket shelves would've been empty.
Lots of people trying to compare a 10% market correction due to erratic and damaging fiscal policy to 2008 at the moment, and I'm convinced none of them were old enough to even remember just how close to the abyss we were back then.
I will say though, that things don't "break" in the financial system until they do, and you'll usually never see it coming. Financial crises tend to happen when the economy is overleveraged and already slowing, which you can argue is the scenario right now. If you throw in a financial crisis on top of an escalating trade war and an economy only just starting to feel the pain of higher rates the last 3 years, then yeah, we're in big trouble. Could say that about every slowdown in history though
A slowdown looks harmless in a normal economy. But is it in an overleveraged one, or can it lead to a catastrophic chain reaction? ATMs already have more limits than before i.e. barely working, and we started to have bank failures due to liquidity when rates increased. I’m not an economist so can you reassure me in the system resilience to slowdowns and significative recessions?
The system is resilient and has been resilient for a while. That's why the financial crises didn't result in a depression. What you're seeing now is concern about an attempt to dismantle the system.
The banks failed because Congress didn’t renew the budget and the government took “extraordinary measure”, which included raiding the fund that lends money overnight to banks so they don’t fail over short-term liquidity issues.
Yeah, Hollywood doesn’t make movies about normal recessions. We were on the brink of a complete meltdown of our modern economic system in 2008. For those aware of what was happening in the banking and credit markets back then, it was a scary moment.
I worked in rock center back then. I still remember the day I showed up to work and all the Lehman guys were drunk as shit looking shell shocked at 8 in the morning.
Working for a boring private bank felt pretty good that day.
What’s fucked about the system now? I think it’s different this time because concentrated in crypto. There are some companies like Tesla that are holding crypto but can it really cause the type of meltdown we saw in 2008?
And they will use all the bailouts that George Bush did, only now there is more debt and tax cuts. I wouldn’t hate it if FOX News ceased to exist. It would save a lot of money.
Solution to the former is obviously going to be to sack all the government specialists involved with orchestrating economic data points as being DEI fake news, and outsource the reports to an unbiased economic authority like newsmax.
The best economists say we've got the bigliest wins coming!
Or even worse they are purposely pump and dumping the entire world economy so they and their friends can continuously buy the dips, inflate a tad sell again before you announce another horrid economic policy.
There has been a pending recession since literally 2022-23, I work for a financial services company that has been preaching a recession for literally years.
...the top line of the article and the data experts in the article literally say none of that.
They predict a slowdown, which is normal for economies to move through. Prolonged slowdown leads to depression and they don't see that yet.
I kinda' hate that Trump has sucked both the intelligence from the right and the left. It's like reading the article was too hard or something, even though they literally break it down into sections for everyone and start with the topline of "Guys a depression isn't coming."
...You're literally replying to someone and agreeing with them pointing into a "gloomy forecast" - Which implies the same thing all of the top replies are parroting.
"Sport".
Or did you also not read what you replied to?
Not only this, but the article literally showcases how the prediction isn't even "correct".
>but there’s ample evidence to suggest the U.S. is not necessarily on the doorstep of a downturn. As recently as the summer of 2023, Goldman’s recession model signaled a more than 30% chance of a recession, just before the U.S. ripped off seven consecutive quarters of more than 1.5% GDP growth and the stock market surged, even as monetary policy remained restrictive. There’s also evidence the GDPNow model may be skewed negatively, as Goldman attributes much of the Atlanta Fed’s model downward shift to its accounting of gold imports amid the safe haven surge, and the New York Fed’s rival first-quarter GDP projection calls for robust 2.9% growth.
Edit: He blocked me when I quoted the article he didn't read. Lol.
How hard is it to just read the article, "sport"? It's okay to just say you didn't.
They shouldn't have propped up 08 like they did, Covid should have been more targeted. When you keep trying to delay a natural recession cycle you get something much worse.
I don't think that argument works when the president is deliberately (if unintentionally given that he's a moron) engineering the recession with terrible policy.
At the end of 2023 those same economists were predicting 90% chance of recession by the end of 2024. As the year went on, the chance of recession continued to drop. Most think there's now a small chance of a recession. But over the last month the chance has moved up slightly to around 20%, the media acts like this is new because they haven't been paying attention and now the sky is falling. I wouldn't bet on a recession, but it does seem like Trump is doing everything he can to try and cause one.
90% recession chance if they keep the same trajectory and policy. Credit to Powell and Biden administration that successfully navigate the soft landing.
Now, Trump is doing the reverse for a hard crash. Heck his administration already admitted that economy is going to suffer (as planned). No pain, no gain is their mantra now and I would love to see how many of their MAGAs will swallow that excuse when it hits them
That's a clever line, but when deliquencies are rising, GDP and consumer spending are falling, unemployment is rising, and you have a dumbass implementing economically destructive policies in the White House, it doesn't take a genius to predict one is coming when all the indicators that say "we're facing a recession" start to flash.
True…but you can’t accurately call a recession until it’s already happened. Economists have been predicting them ad nauseam over the past 10-15 years. There’s been one that was extremely shallow, short lived, and uniquely caused by a global pandemic.
They might be right this time (and the reasons for it are plentiful and fair), but “economists calling for recession” isn’t the canary in the coal mine, it’s literally what they always do
It's really not "what they always do". Economists are obviously a large group of people with heterogeneous views so you can always find a few who are saying a recession is likely, but they almost never have a unified opinion that such is the case. However, in this case there is an emerging consensus that the leading economic indicators all look extremely bad.
The canary in the coal mine isn't the forecasts, it's those indicators. Bankruptcies and delinquencies are up. Household debt is up. Consumer confidence and spending are shaky. Unemployment is rising and hiring is slowing down. The stock market has historically inflated P/E ratios and there are signs of asset bubbles elsewhere as well (crypto etc.). The uncertainty index is at all time highs. Treasury yields are dropping. All of these things have historically been indicators of an incipient recession. If just one or two of them were happening, maybe it's a one-off aberration you can write off. But when they're all happening simultaneously, it's very ominous. Add in all the qualitative information that's cause for concern (trade wars and tariff insanity, policy uncertainty, etc.) and it starts to get pretty easy to connect the dots.
I'm not an economist, but I am a market analyst who analyzes this stuff for a living. My employer is anticipating that a recession is quite likely in the next year. The only true certainties in life are death and taxes but if I had to bet that's the outcome I'd put my money on for sure.
They've been wrong only for the past 4 years, surely this time is the actual recession time! Btw please forget that the phrase "soft landing" exist, that's soooo 2024.
My dude, literally every leading indicator we have is flashing red saying DOWNTURN COMING. That was not the case for the last four years, at all.
If you don't understand what's actually happening you shouldn't be commenting because you have nothing to contribute. You certainly shouldn't be snarking like this because you've done the opposite of earn the right to do so.
If one build infrastructure such as solar farms and power lines you can get extra growth every year for the next 20 years because of the free electricity. Once you've added it together you'll find your panic about a deficit was silly and unnecessary.
Or to put it differently. Capital investment is a good thing because it will boost future growth.
I'm well aware that deficits are run in the hope of long term return on the investments.
US deficit spending has been massive though, and now Trump is reversing lots of the industrial strategy that the deficits were being spent on regarding chip manufacturing, green energy investments and is engaging with trade wars with almost the entire world.
I don't see those investments as getting the returns they were intended now there's been a 180 flip in industrial and trade policy.
Economists love the good old capital investment strategy.
The problem is it's not going to work. GDP numbers are just not showing the real issue at play which is wealth inequality. Rich people keep getting increasingly richer, making the economy look somewhat stable, while average working class and lower income families fall deeper and deeper into the hole.
Nothing is ever going to properly change until wealth equality is brought back in line. It doesn't matter how good the numbers look on growth projections. Biden just did the whole investment strategy and it didn't work despite constantly talking about how the economy isn't that bad, it's just not reality for most people. The U.K government is employing the same strategy and it's also going to fail. Borrow a little, spend a little, invest a little.
Tax the ultra wealthy. Stop letting them abuse loop holes. The best time in recent history for the average family was when countries were actively taking money from the uber wealthy and redistributing it to the working and middle class. Over time systems have been taken away and replaced with tax breaks for the rich, while increasing tax on the middle class which has brought us to this moment where the wealth gap is beyond comprehension.
Is it the case that gdp growth will rebound more quickly after a recession? So let’s say over four years on average you might have say 4% gdp growth. With no recession this is equalised roughly over four year. But if you have a recession you might get two years contraction and two years of growth concentrated.
I’m a moron but could this be the idea? Crash the economy and then take credit for the oversized growth in years 3/4? I know obviously it doesn’t necessarily work that way but could this explain the insanity?
People lose homes and jobs in the two years of recession, that they won't be able to get back in the two years of growth. Someone else will now have two homes that they rent out. Total wealth is up, but societal good is down. GDP is just one number describing the economy, not how well people.are doing. Take the economy of Russia for example, their GDP is doing great building tanks and bombs that get blown up in Ukraine, the war is basically a works program and peace would collapse the economy.
Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy. As consumers fear job loses from Federal cuts, possible cuts from Medicaid and disturbances from the Social Security administration, AND inflation from Tariffs, the economy is sure to tank.
The perfect storm! But why are they promulgating chaos in what is an already fragile economic situation, who has anything to gain, obviously a tighter control on liberties and hence you end up with a dictatorship and undo 250 years of the republic, IMHO, from across the pond!
Small businesses and property owners will be forced to sell and oligarchs will be there to buy it all up for cheap. Alongside the tax gifts for the super wealthy, this is essentially a massive redistribution from wage and salary workers towards oligarchs.
Putin is trump’s handler. Russia is winning the Cold War. Billionaires fully own American politicians. So you have to frame it as primarily: ‘What would Putin want for America?’ and a lesser but still disastrous ‘what best serves the billionaire parasite class?’
3-4 late social security payments and you'll see people in the streets - either because they're homeless, rioting, or both. There's a lot of people on fixed incomes.
Nah it will take at least 2. One late payment can be handwaived as a processing error, especially if the GOP handles the media well. 2 payments is much harder to hand waive
I saw an interview with a former admin of SSA. He says that with all the recent employment cuts within the Social Security administration, those fragile COBOL mainframe systems will eventually collapse.
Is it fair to say that if consumers ignored the fear mongering, they would be fine? The unemployment rate came in a 4.1% so as long as consumers still have a job and a credit card the economy should be fine.
If consumers pull back and stop spending, then they could start the recession cycle even though much hasn’t changed fundamentally.
Tariffs incoming, mass firings of federal workers, cutoff of funding for research and for other programs that spend on US goods (like to USAID programs that buy American crops). There’s plenty of policy to drive a recession outside of consumers feeling a bit down on the economy.
Okay, but those factors need to be quantified to determine their impact.
From what I’ve seen tariffs will cost the average American 1-1.2k a year.
What is the impact of mass federal firing and can the private sector absorb some of those jobs? Just because you fire 100k doesn’t mean 100k people will be out of works for years.
Why are we taking about people being out of work for years? There’s a bunch of people out of work now, suddenly,and many businesses that those people spent money on where now they will draw back. I agree we need to quantify those factors to understand the impact. Maybe those things alone wouldn’t be sufficient to start a recession, but the consumer confidence and economic outlook would justifiably be impacted by those factors.
And let’s not forget the looming budget crisis and then the debt ceiling. The amount of uncertainty is another major factor. Businesses don’t know whether to invest or not, whether to stock up inventory or not. Investors have uncertainty too, impacting the availability of capital. I don’t know the scale of those impacts, but I would suspect they are growing and will jointly be more than enough to trigger a recession. I guess a couple more months will tell.
Yes, you are right about that, it’s consumer spending, however, currently, confidence is in the toilet. And even if confidence were to come back, there are already signs of a struggling consumer as noted by late car payments and high charge card balances. It’s a perfect storm
The best time to commit to a world wide trade war where you attack literally everyone but Russia, directly after your predecessor narrowly patched up a shaky inflation crisis and while your economy is just starting to recover fully.
The amount of global consumers ditching American products irrespective of tartifs is staggering. I assume we won't see those impacts for a few months in sales numbers.
This estimate doesn’t yet account for the surge in imports making their way into inventory, since they don’t get inventory updates until March 17th. When accounting for the gold imports, this changes their forecast to 0.4% growth in Q1, and this still doesn’t account for the other 40% of imports, so it’ll end up getting revised higher
They released an article about it a couple days ago on LinkedIn and also on the Atlanta Fed twitter, but this sub doesn’t allow for links to either
For what it’s worth, the NY Fed nowcast is showing 2.7% growth
The Atlanta Fed twitter has a post about it from a couple days ago, and wrote an article on LinkedIn about it, but this sub doesn’t allow for links to either of those. But it’s easy to find if you go to their twitter page
The reason for the change is that the data is showing a 3.8% reduction in GDP due to higher January imports, but we know that imports don’t actually reduce GDP. They just haven’t yet received updated inventory numbers to show these imports, which they’ll receive on the 17th
They’re showing 0.4% Q1 growth now after accounting for ~60% of the import effect, so it’ll be revised upwards further when they account for the rest of the imports
I don't think any one data point is the be-all-end-all but the U6 unemployment/underemployment rate jumped 0.5% in February. In the last 30 years that's only happened a few times and each time was when the US was in a recession.
The other times:
September 2001
October 2001
May 2008
July 2008
October 2008
November 2008
December 2008
January 2009
February 2009
March 2009 (lol, things were really bad in the Great Recession)
The recession alarm bells are getting louder. Unemployment is creeping up, job growth is slowing, and even the Fed seems unsure about what’s next. Meanwhile, markets are still acting like nothing’s wrong. Feels a lot like early 2008, cracks forming, but everyone pretending its fine. If the labor market weakens further, a downturn could come faster than people expect.
His threats of tariffs on the campaign, and the on/off/on/off implementation of same are all that's needed to crash the US economy. If buyers don't know which end is up, they stop buying. When things get too expensive, buyers stop buying. It makes forecasting for manufacturing and suppliers impossible, which leads to scarcity, higher prices, layoffs--rinse and repeat.
So while federal workers and the US population in general continue to experience mental whip-lash and are reeling from the poorly threatened/executed layoffs, we get increased uncertainty and financial insecurity. Consumer spending grinds to a halt. People stop going out to eat, on vacations, buying more crap, getting their nails done.
Internationally, as Canada and others have clearly embraced, this administration's trade policy cannot be trusted going forward.
You gotta love how they spin the data. Massive layoffs, not for any reason but to reduce taxes for corporations. They recent layoffs have not been added to the data, but they will. I believe by Q2, reality will hit.
This article is weird. It claims recession is unlikely while presenting evidence recessionis happening, then the contra consists solely of "well, we've had indicators before and only went into recession some of those times".
Every day it's a new unknown, a new illegal order, a new attack on an ally. It's exceedingly arrogant for these clowns to write this article "there's no data to suggest a recession is looming" after listing all the data. Sure everything took a huge sharp downturn after 6 weeks of Trump, but since there's only one month of data its not a trend yet so, hey, everything is great. Obviously it will go back to normal next month.
Well yes! All the stats are trending that way, Unemployment will start to increase, slowly at first, but then faster. Which the normal response from government would be to increase spending. But not with this bunch of idiots. They will push to “balance the budget “ which the opposite of what they need to do. A lot of pain and suffering is in our very near future.
They will in no way ever push to balance the budget. Yes they will say they are and their poodles will say they are but at the same time they will add trillions and trillions by cutting taxes for the most wealthy.
I think consumer confidence is pointing that way. And it's an odd situation. The MAGA people seem to want it, because it will make their perceived enemies suffer. They don't realize they will suffer as well.
Trump is trying to talk the economy into a recession, the US has +-10 trillion to refinance in the next 9 months. Every drop in interest rates matters.
Hate that they used Q2 2020 as the previous reference point. That quarter was a total anomaly and isn’t relevant. Compare the projection to this quarter to the lowest quarter of growth that wasn’t due to a reason as anomalous as the initial outbreak of COVID. You’d have to go back over 15 years to find a quarter that bad.
The thing about the -2.4% growth estimated by the Atlanta fed is that -3.8% of that comes from a huge increase in the import deficit by companies getting ahead of the tariffs, once we see the inventory change a lot of that decrease should go away tbh.
These companies will have to raise prices to cope with tariffs, which will dampen the demand by a good amount. But the orange head and short-sighted people leading the government now (to be fair, democrats are just as guilty of shortsighted thinking in other areas) seem to think that onshore-ing of manufacturing will happen and that the lag time and the will to invest in such uncertain time to establish domestic manufacturing prowess is trivial. This is wrong and what will end up happening is the consumer demand will get lower due to rising prices (not a bad thing IMO because Americans consume too much and waste too much), and the US economy will shrink.
This is not counting in the factors such as the wage level needed to start a manufacturing place in the US is much higher and the way the US government works is disjointed (due to the nature of federal democracy where states have a lot of say in policies and implementation) unlike in places like China there is central planning and policy assurance for years.
but though the odds of an economic slowdown are higher, the evidence does not suggest a recession is imminent.
Just leaving this here since everyone didn't seem to read even the first paragraph. It seems unlikely we'll be in a recession but yes we'll be in a slump. Can this guy totally ruin us? Yes. But it isn't a guarantee yet. Also I'm just going to keep saying things here because I can't seem to ever leave a comment long enough that it isn't auto removed by the automod. Reddit can be really Fkn annoying sometimes am I right?
No recession people, did you see nvda’s last earnings? We were at ath on the indexes a couple weeks ago. Its a bull market people. Only problem right now is the idiot in the White House
NVDA earnings are not correlated with the odds of recession. I'd rely more on the opinion of the Atlanta Fed, which is tasked with analyzing the entire market.
I don’t know, but what says we are heading into a recession? All we have had was stock market panic and that because of that orangutan in office fucking with everyones mind
We've been in a recession on and off for years. We were in a recession in 2022, when we had 2 quarters of negative growth, (the literal definition) but the administration at the time, decided to rename the definition.
That's not nonsense, that's facts but let me guess, even now, when the feds tell you the economy is doing great, you believe them. 🤣
I'll take the word of the millions that have been struggling for years, can't afford groceries without putting them on a credit card, can't afford to move out of their parents place, can't even afford life in general, over the fed.
Cost of living and people struggling is literally the definition of a recession. Lmao. Our economy is based on consumer spending and consumers pumping more money into it. When consumers stop spending as much and the economy slows.... that's a fucking recession.
Making shit up? OK man, go listen to daddy government like a good little boy. The U.S. is doing amazing, everyone is rich as fuck, no 36 trillion dollars in debt here. Everyone is still flush with cash from covid and soooo happy.
You can keep imagining my view on the economy if you want. You’re just trying to deflect from the fact that you’re economically ignorant. You just made up a super weird definition of a recession. and tried to pass it off as the “literal definition”. LOL.
I get it. You’re uneducated and bitter. But you think you’re really smart so you take license to just make sh!t up and think people will just believe you.
It just makes you sound super dumb.
I have an MBA with a focus on Macroeconomics so I don’t need google. But, you can find the actual longstanding definition easily. Here’s some help Jethro.
Bitter? Why would I be bitter? You're literally making shit up as you tell me I'm making shit up. 🤣🤣
Bro, I have a family, home, $20,000 worth of snakes I love and equipment, guns, live peacefully out in the country, my families health. I'm far from bitter.
You fabricated out of thin air the “literal” definition of a recession. Explain that.
And yes… bitter. You’re on here crying about people not being able to afford anything or buy a house,etc. and then you come on here bragging about $20k in snakes like that’s a flex? Wow. you’re rolling dude.
I’m gonna wait for you to explain why you lied about what a recession is. Until you take the L and admit that you just made it up, I’ll sit back and enjoy knowing you’re just weak.
And? It's still a recession and yes, it was self inflicted. Lmao. What do you mean? Trump and Biden printed 40% of all the money in the history of the U.S. in a few years.
A lot of you are so brainwashed, you don't even understand how bad things truly are and they are going to get a whole lot worse.
The U.S. is currently adding 1 trillion in debt every 100 days. The American consumer is now over 1 trillion dollars in credit card debt. Repos and foreclosures are surging. Inflation is going back up. Interest rates will be going back up to combat rising inflation. The average home price is almost 500k for a single family home. Unemployment is about to skyrocket.
2022 was not a recession. You should refresh your source.
There was Trump’s recession in 2020, The great recession 13 yrs prior and the 2001 recession this century. That’s not remotely close to “in and out” of recessions.
Initial economic data point releases are literally always revised and have been for many decades. That’s why the US has always relied on the same panel to determine if we’re in a recession. And that’s why 2022 was never considered a recession. Job growth was robust, consumer confidence was improving, and the initial GDP forecast was a negligible retraction. Essentially flat. They predicted it was an anomaly and they were right.
That’s not some conspiracy of the Biden admin “redefining the definition” of a recession.
I was going by the 2 quarters of negative growth as well, but I've been trying to study and increase my understanding in response to Trumps tariffs and current economic outlook. I think there was some political spin by the Biden administration to avoid the negative political impact, but there wasnt lies or misinformation.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official authority on declaring US recessions. Having 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth is a common indicator, but it's not the full definition. Also the Bureau of Economic Analysis did revise their information based on more complete data. They stated that Q2 2022 that GDP grew by 0.3% so no we didnt have 2 quarters of negative growth. The NBER take into account job growth, economic spending, and industrial production. Job growth was still good, unemployment wasn't rising, consumer spending was still strong, and industrial production was also growing.
We could get more into the specifics, but point is no we didnt have two quarters of negative GDP growth and even if we did that doesn't official declare a recession because other metrics need to be accounted for to paint the whole picture.
There's nothing sudden about it as the headline tries to make it sound. The economy was already in perilous shape. For 2023 and 2024 GDP growth in the non-govt portion of the economy was negative.
The only part of the economy for the last 2 years where GDP grew was govt. And the growth was due to massive spending and debt. Govt spending in 2024 was 50% above pre-COVID 2019.
Basically, gigantic deficits papered over a 2-year recession. If deficits had "only" been $1T we would ha e been in recession for 2 years now.
Edit: Can't reply because thread is locked. GDPP, whatever that is, is not what I posted about. Here are the raw numbers I alluded to. Deficits papered over a recession in the rest of the economy.
Nah, consumer spending is always about 2/3rds of GDP and consumers have savings and higher wages, despite inflation. Fixed investment was also positive.
Consumer sentiment has been tanking since Trump took office, because of layoffs, tariffs and his rhetoric. And if inflation doesn't come lower, rates won't decline. So, that's the headwind to consumer spending and jobs. Which will give us a recession versus the soft landing the Fed orchestrated
What are you talking about? The economy was at an all time HIGH and inflation was basically ZERO when Biden/Harris handed it off to MOSCOW DON. Now look! Him and Nazi sympathizer Elon are gonna drive this thing off a cliff and try to blame it on poor old BIDEN. All Biden ever tried to do was be a morally decent man.
I was impersonating the average brain dead Redditor response when discussing the economy under trump. The scary part is that it easily passes as 100% serious
We've been heading to a recession for 4 years. Everyone's seen this, and it goes back years.
Stimulus and Covid payouts gave people enough runway to hang themselves and the only thing holding up the economy was the money made by people selling houses from 2020-now.
We have been in a recession since 2022 idk why everyones heads are spinning now. I hate the guy just as much as you but this is only going to make extremists worse if we keep spewing nonsense.
There's nothing sudden about it as the headline tries to make it sound. The economy was already in perilous shape. For 2023 and 2024 GDP growth in the non-govt portion of the economy was negative.
The only part of the economy for the last 2 years where GDP grew was govt. And the growth was due to massive spending and debt. Govt spending in 2024 was 50% above pre-COVID 2019.
Basically, gigantic deficits papered over a 2-year recession. If deficits had "only" been $1T we would ha e been in recession for 2 years now.
Edit: Thread is locked so I can no longer reply. Here are the numbers I alluded to:
There's nothing sudden about it as the headline tries to make it sound. The economy was already in perilous shape. For 2023 and 2024 GDP growth in the non-govt portion of the economy was negative.
The only part of the economy for the last 2 years where GDP grew was govt. And the growth was due to massive spending and debt. Govt spending in 2024 was 50% above pre-COVID 2019.
Basically, gigantic deficits papered over a 2-year recession. If deficits had "only" been $1T we would ha e been in recession for 2 years now.
Kingkongcrapper | 10 months ago
TLDR: Economists are providing gloomy forecasts, the jobs data, consumer sentiment, and inflation numbers look bad, but some big investment banking “We’re always in a bull market,” investors say, “It can’t be that bad,” so cheer up buttercup! We’re getting 2.9 percent GDP growth by the end of 2025 based on some good feelings.
Xeynon | 10 months ago
In other words, the people who know what they're talking about are forecasting a recession and the delusional greedmongers who always fail to see the bucket they're about to step in think we're fine.
Recession coming.
47_for_18_USC_2381 | 10 months ago
Maybe.. Whats Jim Cramer callin for? If he says we're bullish keep buyin?
We're properly fucked.
Astandsforataxia69 | 10 months ago
I would've liked if i was bought some cigarettes and a nice dinner before getting fucked
Money-Introduction54 | 10 months ago
You'd be lucky to get a punch in the back of the neck. There ain't no hate like republican love.
Septopuss7 | 10 months ago
>No! No! No!
>Bear Stearns is fine. Do not take your money out. If there’s one takeaway, Bear Stearns is not in trouble. I mean, if anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear. That’s just being silly. Don’t be silly.
Barnaboule69 | 10 months ago
I'd love to hear the utterly panicked phone call he must have received from Bear Sterns just before his show that day lol.
Septopuss7 | 10 months ago
I just watched the clip against yesterday, I'm SO glad I never deluded myself into thinking I was going to make it financially ahahaha
Xeynon | 10 months ago
The state of Lehman Brothers is strong.
amouse_buche | 10 months ago
I mean, a recession is a great time to keep buying.
Molassesonthebed | 10 months ago
Nah, they are not delusional. Bankers are smart people. They are protecting their own interest/investment and trying to prevent panic selling (before they unload)
Makra567 | 10 months ago
I just watched the big short a few weeks ago, this is all starting to sound really familiar.
Xeynon | 10 months ago
Yup.
You know the scene in that movie where Steve Carell goes to the convention and the rich douchebag is being a condescending dick to him, and as soon as he gets out of the meeting Carell tells his assistant "find out everything that guy has money in and short all of it"?
The people saying "don't worry, we're going to have 2.9% growth" are that rich douchebag.
Money-Introduction54 | 10 months ago
I think the 2.9 growth they talk about is their penis.
Xeynon | 10 months ago
2.9 nanometers.
k3t4mine | 10 months ago
2008 was a financial disaster that nearly sent the world into a deep depression. Credit markets were frozen, so all the banks stopped lending to each other and average businesses just completely shut down as they couldn't get short term financing for day to day operations.
Society cannot function without credit. We were hours away from a complete collapse of the financial system. ATM's would've stopped working, there would've been a run on every bank in the country, and supermarket shelves would've been empty.
Lots of people trying to compare a 10% market correction due to erratic and damaging fiscal policy to 2008 at the moment, and I'm convinced none of them were old enough to even remember just how close to the abyss we were back then.
I will say though, that things don't "break" in the financial system until they do, and you'll usually never see it coming. Financial crises tend to happen when the economy is overleveraged and already slowing, which you can argue is the scenario right now. If you throw in a financial crisis on top of an escalating trade war and an economy only just starting to feel the pain of higher rates the last 3 years, then yeah, we're in big trouble. Could say that about every slowdown in history though
flatfisher | 10 months ago
A slowdown looks harmless in a normal economy. But is it in an overleveraged one, or can it lead to a catastrophic chain reaction? ATMs already have more limits than before i.e. barely working, and we started to have bank failures due to liquidity when rates increased. I’m not an economist so can you reassure me in the system resilience to slowdowns and significative recessions?
devliegende | 10 months ago
The system is resilient and has been resilient for a while. That's why the financial crises didn't result in a depression. What you're seeing now is concern about an attempt to dismantle the system.
mccoyn | 10 months ago
The banks failed because Congress didn’t renew the budget and the government took “extraordinary measure”, which included raiding the fund that lends money overnight to banks so they don’t fail over short-term liquidity issues.
FrequencyHigher | 10 months ago
Yeah, Hollywood doesn’t make movies about normal recessions. We were on the brink of a complete meltdown of our modern economic system in 2008. For those aware of what was happening in the banking and credit markets back then, it was a scary moment.
__Art__Vandalay__ | 10 months ago
You want scary? Try being a new employee of a Bear Stearns subsidiary with 3 young children in March 2008
Probably the most stressful time of my life
Ok_Ice_1669 | 10 months ago
I worked in rock center back then. I still remember the day I showed up to work and all the Lehman guys were drunk as shit looking shell shocked at 8 in the morning.
Working for a boring private bank felt pretty good that day.
ku2000 | 10 months ago
Hope you are doing better now.
das_war_ein_Befehl | 10 months ago
2008 and a 10% correction are the same thing if you lose your job and can’t find one fast enough to replace it.
WhatAmTrak | 10 months ago
Yep, and it’s happening everywhere. Trump is just speed running to try and collapse the western civilization. (wonder why he’d want that?)
VaselineHabits | 10 months ago
Because his real daddy Putin demands it. America installed a Russian asset as President.
Ok_Ice_1669 | 10 months ago
What’s fucked about the system now? I think it’s different this time because concentrated in crypto. There are some companies like Tesla that are holding crypto but can it really cause the type of meltdown we saw in 2008?
Good_kido78 | 10 months ago
And they will use all the bailouts that George Bush did, only now there is more debt and tax cuts. I wouldn’t hate it if FOX News ceased to exist. It would save a lot of money.
Decadent_Pilgrim | 10 months ago
Solution to the former is obviously going to be to sack all the government specialists involved with orchestrating economic data points as being DEI fake news, and outsource the reports to an unbiased economic authority like newsmax.
The best economists say we've got the bigliest wins coming!
/S
Cyber-Insecurity | 10 months ago
CNBC talking heads were throwing around the “we’re in a recession” chatter just this week.
Don’t know what this adds to the convo, but if they’re already talking about it…
phillosopherp | 10 months ago
Or even worse they are purposely pump and dumping the entire world economy so they and their friends can continuously buy the dips, inflate a tad sell again before you announce another horrid economic policy.
Psychological-Pea815 | 10 months ago
It's already here. -2.4 GDP since February. Look up GDPNow from the Atlanta fed. Not a good sign.
95Daphne | 10 months ago
Apparently gold transfers to the US confused the trade deficit data here.
Having said that 0-1% GDP growth is not great though.
Snakenmyboot-e | 10 months ago
There has been a pending recession since literally 2022-23, I work for a financial services company that has been preaching a recession for literally years.
Xeynon | 10 months ago
We've definitely been at risk for one, there's been a lot of stuff to worry about (asset bubbles etc.). But it looks like it's here now.
SadCritters | 10 months ago
...the top line of the article and the data experts in the article literally say none of that.
They predict a slowdown, which is normal for economies to move through. Prolonged slowdown leads to depression and they don't see that yet.
I kinda' hate that Trump has sucked both the intelligence from the right and the left. It's like reading the article was too hard or something, even though they literally break it down into sections for everyone and start with the topline of "Guys a depression isn't coming."
Xeynon | 10 months ago
Given that I didn't say anything about a depression you're in no position to be impugning anybody else's reading comprehension skills, sport.
SadCritters | 10 months ago
...You're literally replying to someone and agreeing with them pointing into a "gloomy forecast" - Which implies the same thing all of the top replies are parroting.
"Sport".
Or did you also not read what you replied to?
Not only this, but the article literally showcases how the prediction isn't even "correct".
>but there’s ample evidence to suggest the U.S. is not necessarily on the doorstep of a downturn. As recently as the summer of 2023, Goldman’s recession model signaled a more than 30% chance of a recession, just before the U.S. ripped off seven consecutive quarters of more than 1.5% GDP growth and the stock market surged, even as monetary policy remained restrictive. There’s also evidence the GDPNow model may be skewed negatively, as Goldman attributes much of the Atlanta Fed’s model downward shift to its accounting of gold imports amid the safe haven surge, and the New York Fed’s rival first-quarter GDP projection calls for robust 2.9% growth.
Edit: He blocked me when I quoted the article he didn't read. Lol.
How hard is it to just read the article, "sport"? It's okay to just say you didn't.
Xeynon | 10 months ago
A "gloomy forecast" is not the same thing as a "depression". Please consult your dictionary to understand the difference.
Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.
Rise_Up_And_Resist | 10 months ago
“What rake?”
Low_Key_Cool | 10 months ago
They shouldn't have propped up 08 like they did, Covid should have been more targeted. When you keep trying to delay a natural recession cycle you get something much worse.
Xeynon | 10 months ago
I don't think that argument works when the president is deliberately (if unintentionally given that he's a moron) engineering the recession with terrible policy.
Qorsair | 10 months ago
At the end of 2023 those same economists were predicting 90% chance of recession by the end of 2024. As the year went on, the chance of recession continued to drop. Most think there's now a small chance of a recession. But over the last month the chance has moved up slightly to around 20%, the media acts like this is new because they haven't been paying attention and now the sky is falling. I wouldn't bet on a recession, but it does seem like Trump is doing everything he can to try and cause one.
Molassesonthebed | 10 months ago
90% recession chance if they keep the same trajectory and policy. Credit to Powell and Biden administration that successfully navigate the soft landing.
Now, Trump is doing the reverse for a hard crash. Heck his administration already admitted that economy is going to suffer (as planned). No pain, no gain is their mantra now and I would love to see how many of their MAGAs will swallow that excuse when it hits them
Bodes_Magodes | 10 months ago
Economists have correctly predicted 9 out of the last 2 recessions
Xeynon | 10 months ago
That's a clever line, but when deliquencies are rising, GDP and consumer spending are falling, unemployment is rising, and you have a dumbass implementing economically destructive policies in the White House, it doesn't take a genius to predict one is coming when all the indicators that say "we're facing a recession" start to flash.
Bodes_Magodes | 10 months ago
True…but you can’t accurately call a recession until it’s already happened. Economists have been predicting them ad nauseam over the past 10-15 years. There’s been one that was extremely shallow, short lived, and uniquely caused by a global pandemic.
They might be right this time (and the reasons for it are plentiful and fair), but “economists calling for recession” isn’t the canary in the coal mine, it’s literally what they always do
Xeynon | 10 months ago
It's really not "what they always do". Economists are obviously a large group of people with heterogeneous views so you can always find a few who are saying a recession is likely, but they almost never have a unified opinion that such is the case. However, in this case there is an emerging consensus that the leading economic indicators all look extremely bad.
The canary in the coal mine isn't the forecasts, it's those indicators. Bankruptcies and delinquencies are up. Household debt is up. Consumer confidence and spending are shaky. Unemployment is rising and hiring is slowing down. The stock market has historically inflated P/E ratios and there are signs of asset bubbles elsewhere as well (crypto etc.). The uncertainty index is at all time highs. Treasury yields are dropping. All of these things have historically been indicators of an incipient recession. If just one or two of them were happening, maybe it's a one-off aberration you can write off. But when they're all happening simultaneously, it's very ominous. Add in all the qualitative information that's cause for concern (trade wars and tariff insanity, policy uncertainty, etc.) and it starts to get pretty easy to connect the dots.
Bodes_Magodes | 10 months ago
This reads like it was written by an economist…
Xeynon | 10 months ago
I'm not an economist, but I am a market analyst who analyzes this stuff for a living. My employer is anticipating that a recession is quite likely in the next year. The only true certainties in life are death and taxes but if I had to bet that's the outcome I'd put my money on for sure.
FlatTransportation64 | 10 months ago
They've been wrong only for the past 4 years, surely this time is the actual recession time! Btw please forget that the phrase "soft landing" exist, that's soooo 2024.
Xeynon | 10 months ago
My dude, literally every leading indicator we have is flashing red saying DOWNTURN COMING. That was not the case for the last four years, at all.
If you don't understand what's actually happening you shouldn't be commenting because you have nothing to contribute. You certainly shouldn't be snarking like this because you've done the opposite of earn the right to do so.
burnthatburner1 | 10 months ago
We landed already. And Trump is going to crash the plane anyway.
DesignFreiberufler | 10 months ago
Nothing to see here. Please disperse.
phillosopherp | 10 months ago
And we will hear "stagflation is good actually, also was still the reason that keysianism needed to die"
Dimmo17 | 10 months ago
2.9 percent GDP growth whilst running a 6% of GDP deficit! Absolutely speedrunning going broke.
devliegende | 10 months ago
If one build infrastructure such as solar farms and power lines you can get extra growth every year for the next 20 years because of the free electricity. Once you've added it together you'll find your panic about a deficit was silly and unnecessary.
Or to put it differently. Capital investment is a good thing because it will boost future growth.
Dimmo17 | 10 months ago
I'm well aware that deficits are run in the hope of long term return on the investments.
US deficit spending has been massive though, and now Trump is reversing lots of the industrial strategy that the deficits were being spent on regarding chip manufacturing, green energy investments and is engaging with trade wars with almost the entire world.
I don't see those investments as getting the returns they were intended now there's been a 180 flip in industrial and trade policy.
Ok_Ice_1669 | 10 months ago
Trump fucking sucks at strategic thinking. That’s why all his businesses are scams.
devliegende | 10 months ago
Then the problem is not with the deficit but rather the ending of the deficit
Suitable-Economy-346 | 10 months ago
That's what China is doing. We're doing nothing, except giving trillion dollar handouts to the ruling class.
brianstormIRL | 10 months ago
Economists love the good old capital investment strategy.
The problem is it's not going to work. GDP numbers are just not showing the real issue at play which is wealth inequality. Rich people keep getting increasingly richer, making the economy look somewhat stable, while average working class and lower income families fall deeper and deeper into the hole.
Nothing is ever going to properly change until wealth equality is brought back in line. It doesn't matter how good the numbers look on growth projections. Biden just did the whole investment strategy and it didn't work despite constantly talking about how the economy isn't that bad, it's just not reality for most people. The U.K government is employing the same strategy and it's also going to fail. Borrow a little, spend a little, invest a little.
Tax the ultra wealthy. Stop letting them abuse loop holes. The best time in recent history for the average family was when countries were actively taking money from the uber wealthy and redistributing it to the working and middle class. Over time systems have been taken away and replaced with tax breaks for the rich, while increasing tax on the middle class which has brought us to this moment where the wealth gap is beyond comprehension.
jorgepolak | 10 months ago
This is the Wall Street's equivalent of "the institutions will protect us!".
AntDogFan | 10 months ago
Is it the case that gdp growth will rebound more quickly after a recession? So let’s say over four years on average you might have say 4% gdp growth. With no recession this is equalised roughly over four year. But if you have a recession you might get two years contraction and two years of growth concentrated.
I’m a moron but could this be the idea? Crash the economy and then take credit for the oversized growth in years 3/4? I know obviously it doesn’t necessarily work that way but could this explain the insanity?
erublind | 10 months ago
People lose homes and jobs in the two years of recession, that they won't be able to get back in the two years of growth. Someone else will now have two homes that they rent out. Total wealth is up, but societal good is down. GDP is just one number describing the economy, not how well people.are doing. Take the economy of Russia for example, their GDP is doing great building tanks and bombs that get blown up in Ukraine, the war is basically a works program and peace would collapse the economy.
AntDogFan | 10 months ago
Genuinely I wasnt saying it was a good thing. I was just wondering if that might be the thinking behind the US government actions.
PickingPies | 10 months ago
Do you think all the markets abroad will ever be recovered?
RealisticForYou | 10 months ago
Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy. As consumers fear job loses from Federal cuts, possible cuts from Medicaid and disturbances from the Social Security administration, AND inflation from Tariffs, the economy is sure to tank.
That_Touch5280 | 10 months ago
The perfect storm! But why are they promulgating chaos in what is an already fragile economic situation, who has anything to gain, obviously a tighter control on liberties and hence you end up with a dictatorship and undo 250 years of the republic, IMHO, from across the pond!
-_Weltschmerz_- | 10 months ago
Small businesses and property owners will be forced to sell and oligarchs will be there to buy it all up for cheap. Alongside the tax gifts for the super wealthy, this is essentially a massive redistribution from wage and salary workers towards oligarchs.
That_Touch5280 | 10 months ago
What do you think would happen if the house un american activities body was still sitting?
KerouacsGirlfriend | 10 months ago
Putin is trump’s handler. Russia is winning the Cold War. Billionaires fully own American politicians. So you have to frame it as primarily: ‘What would Putin want for America?’ and a lesser but still disastrous ‘what best serves the billionaire parasite class?’
That_Touch5280 | 10 months ago
Reverse communism, as in The good old USSR!
HexTalon | 10 months ago
3-4 late social security payments and you'll see people in the streets - either because they're homeless, rioting, or both. There's a lot of people on fixed incomes.
Ulex57 | 10 months ago
Correction: one late SS will have people in the streets.
MeringueSuccessful33 | 10 months ago
Nah it will take at least 2. One late payment can be handwaived as a processing error, especially if the GOP handles the media well. 2 payments is much harder to hand waive
Advanced-Blackberry | 10 months ago
And when the start paying again he’ll claim he saved SS for them and trump bucks mania starts all over again
RealisticForYou | 10 months ago
I saw an interview with a former admin of SSA. He says that with all the recent employment cuts within the Social Security administration, those fragile COBOL mainframe systems will eventually collapse.
loudtones | 10 months ago
Add in AI and middle white collar jobs
Preme2 | 10 months ago
Consumer confidence or consumer spending?
Is it fair to say that if consumers ignored the fear mongering, they would be fine? The unemployment rate came in a 4.1% so as long as consumers still have a job and a credit card the economy should be fine.
If consumers pull back and stop spending, then they could start the recession cycle even though much hasn’t changed fundamentally.
tgillet1 | 10 months ago
Tariffs incoming, mass firings of federal workers, cutoff of funding for research and for other programs that spend on US goods (like to USAID programs that buy American crops). There’s plenty of policy to drive a recession outside of consumers feeling a bit down on the economy.
northwest333 | 10 months ago
Don’t forget the suspension of income driven student loans. Many former students will see a massive hike in their monthly payments soon.
je66b | 10 months ago
Is this something I missed? My understanding was they stopped processing IBR applications, not that they were removing IBR.
Preme2 | 10 months ago
Okay, but those factors need to be quantified to determine their impact.
From what I’ve seen tariffs will cost the average American 1-1.2k a year.
What is the impact of mass federal firing and can the private sector absorb some of those jobs? Just because you fire 100k doesn’t mean 100k people will be out of works for years.
tgillet1 | 10 months ago
Why are we taking about people being out of work for years? There’s a bunch of people out of work now, suddenly,and many businesses that those people spent money on where now they will draw back. I agree we need to quantify those factors to understand the impact. Maybe those things alone wouldn’t be sufficient to start a recession, but the consumer confidence and economic outlook would justifiably be impacted by those factors.
And let’s not forget the looming budget crisis and then the debt ceiling. The amount of uncertainty is another major factor. Businesses don’t know whether to invest or not, whether to stock up inventory or not. Investors have uncertainty too, impacting the availability of capital. I don’t know the scale of those impacts, but I would suspect they are growing and will jointly be more than enough to trigger a recession. I guess a couple more months will tell.
WholeLiterature | 10 months ago
The unemployment rate is far higher and falsely deflated by counting people who make less than $10k a year and/or work just gig economy jobs.
Preme2 | 10 months ago
Sure it could be a flawed metric but as long as it’s consistent when the economy was doing “great” under Biden then I don’t see how that’s relevant.
WholeLiterature | 10 months ago
It wasn’t doing great, that’s why Trump keeps winning.
RealisticForYou | 10 months ago
Yes, you are right about that, it’s consumer spending, however, currently, confidence is in the toilet. And even if confidence were to come back, there are already signs of a struggling consumer as noted by late car payments and high charge card balances. It’s a perfect storm
cjwidd | 10 months ago
I thought Forbes was banned because of the contributor program?
Either way the Atlanta Fed signal plus nonstop, capricious trade wars with our allies doesn't require a PHD to interpret the prospects of.
gplfalt | 10 months ago
The best time to commit to a world wide trade war where you attack literally everyone but Russia, directly after your predecessor narrowly patched up a shaky inflation crisis and while your economy is just starting to recover fully.
Everyone knows this.
Wonderful-Nobody-303 | 10 months ago
The amount of global consumers ditching American products irrespective of tartifs is staggering. I assume we won't see those impacts for a few months in sales numbers.
Obvious_Chapter2082 | 10 months ago
The Atlanta fed revised their estimate to show positive growth, btw
cjwidd | 10 months ago
They did not (from the Atlanta Fed website):
Latest estimate: -2.4 percent — March 06, 2025
Obvious_Chapter2082 | 10 months ago
This estimate doesn’t yet account for the surge in imports making their way into inventory, since they don’t get inventory updates until March 17th. When accounting for the gold imports, this changes their forecast to 0.4% growth in Q1, and this still doesn’t account for the other 40% of imports, so it’ll end up getting revised higher
They released an article about it a couple days ago on LinkedIn and also on the Atlanta Fed twitter, but this sub doesn’t allow for links to either
For what it’s worth, the NY Fed nowcast is showing 2.7% growth
pelicane136 | 10 months ago
Source on that?
Obvious_Chapter2082 | 10 months ago
The Atlanta Fed twitter has a post about it from a couple days ago, and wrote an article on LinkedIn about it, but this sub doesn’t allow for links to either of those. But it’s easy to find if you go to their twitter page
The reason for the change is that the data is showing a 3.8% reduction in GDP due to higher January imports, but we know that imports don’t actually reduce GDP. They just haven’t yet received updated inventory numbers to show these imports, which they’ll receive on the 17th
They’re showing 0.4% Q1 growth now after accounting for ~60% of the import effect, so it’ll be revised upwards further when they account for the rest of the imports
guachi01 | 10 months ago
I don't think any one data point is the be-all-end-all but the U6 unemployment/underemployment rate jumped 0.5% in February. In the last 30 years that's only happened a few times and each time was when the US was in a recession.
The other times:
September 2001
October 2001
May 2008
July 2008
October 2008
November 2008
December 2008
January 2009
February 2009
March 2009 (lol, things were really bad in the Great Recession)
March 2020
April 2020
Oh... Edit to add the FRED graph.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/u6rate
milhouse_vanhalen | 10 months ago
It seems to need to happen more than once. Good thing those government layoffs hit the most recent jobs report.
Wait, they didn’t? Uh oh.
ROOFisonFIRE_usa | 10 months ago
A whole host of numbers still coming from people just recently laid off.
Lionzzo | 10 months ago
The recession alarm bells are getting louder. Unemployment is creeping up, job growth is slowing, and even the Fed seems unsure about what’s next. Meanwhile, markets are still acting like nothing’s wrong. Feels a lot like early 2008, cracks forming, but everyone pretending its fine. If the labor market weakens further, a downturn could come faster than people expect.
loli_popping | 10 months ago
I really think the fed will do more qe when the time comes. between inflation and recession, they will pick inflation anytime
No_Land_6119 | 10 months ago
His threats of tariffs on the campaign, and the on/off/on/off implementation of same are all that's needed to crash the US economy. If buyers don't know which end is up, they stop buying. When things get too expensive, buyers stop buying. It makes forecasting for manufacturing and suppliers impossible, which leads to scarcity, higher prices, layoffs--rinse and repeat.
So while federal workers and the US population in general continue to experience mental whip-lash and are reeling from the poorly threatened/executed layoffs, we get increased uncertainty and financial insecurity. Consumer spending grinds to a halt. People stop going out to eat, on vacations, buying more crap, getting their nails done.
Internationally, as Canada and others have clearly embraced, this administration's trade policy cannot be trusted going forward.
doslobo33 | 10 months ago
You gotta love how they spin the data. Massive layoffs, not for any reason but to reduce taxes for corporations. They recent layoffs have not been added to the data, but they will. I believe by Q2, reality will hit.
VaselineHabits | 10 months ago
Then when people aren't spending money, the private sector will cut jobs
Gotta keep the shareholders happy
GamemasterJeff | 10 months ago
This article is weird. It claims recession is unlikely while presenting evidence recessionis happening, then the contra consists solely of "well, we've had indicators before and only went into recession some of those times".
DoontGiveHimTheStick | 10 months ago
Every day it's a new unknown, a new illegal order, a new attack on an ally. It's exceedingly arrogant for these clowns to write this article "there's no data to suggest a recession is looming" after listing all the data. Sure everything took a huge sharp downturn after 6 weeks of Trump, but since there's only one month of data its not a trend yet so, hey, everything is great. Obviously it will go back to normal next month.
SunOdd1699 | 10 months ago
Well yes! All the stats are trending that way, Unemployment will start to increase, slowly at first, but then faster. Which the normal response from government would be to increase spending. But not with this bunch of idiots. They will push to “balance the budget “ which the opposite of what they need to do. A lot of pain and suffering is in our very near future.
alt-mswzebo | 10 months ago
They will in no way ever push to balance the budget. Yes they will say they are and their poodles will say they are but at the same time they will add trillions and trillions by cutting taxes for the most wealthy.
Troubador222 | 10 months ago
I think consumer confidence is pointing that way. And it's an odd situation. The MAGA people seem to want it, because it will make their perceived enemies suffer. They don't realize they will suffer as well.
Sea-Resort730 | 10 months ago
I can picture his fat head saying " i just got here, this is Bidens inflation for the bad deals he got ripped off LIKE CHYNA"
meanwhile there is a global and domestic movement to boycott anything remotely related to his policies
zekoslav90 | 10 months ago
US - yes, but Europe? this whole thing seems to be doing wonders for our economy. German 2025 GDP predictions are up 1.5% or something like that.
surebegrand2023 | 10 months ago
Trump is trying to talk the economy into a recession, the US has +-10 trillion to refinance in the next 9 months. Every drop in interest rates matters.
harbison215 | 10 months ago
Hate that they used Q2 2020 as the previous reference point. That quarter was a total anomaly and isn’t relevant. Compare the projection to this quarter to the lowest quarter of growth that wasn’t due to a reason as anomalous as the initial outbreak of COVID. You’d have to go back over 15 years to find a quarter that bad.
Tierbook96 | 10 months ago
The thing about the -2.4% growth estimated by the Atlanta fed is that -3.8% of that comes from a huge increase in the import deficit by companies getting ahead of the tariffs, once we see the inventory change a lot of that decrease should go away tbh.
plartoo | 10 months ago
These companies will have to raise prices to cope with tariffs, which will dampen the demand by a good amount. But the orange head and short-sighted people leading the government now (to be fair, democrats are just as guilty of shortsighted thinking in other areas) seem to think that onshore-ing of manufacturing will happen and that the lag time and the will to invest in such uncertain time to establish domestic manufacturing prowess is trivial. This is wrong and what will end up happening is the consumer demand will get lower due to rising prices (not a bad thing IMO because Americans consume too much and waste too much), and the US economy will shrink.
This is not counting in the factors such as the wage level needed to start a manufacturing place in the US is much higher and the way the US government works is disjointed (due to the nature of federal democracy where states have a lot of say in policies and implementation) unlike in places like China there is central planning and policy assurance for years.
Alwaysfavoriteasian | 10 months ago
but though the odds of an economic slowdown are higher, the evidence does not suggest a recession is imminent.
Just leaving this here since everyone didn't seem to read even the first paragraph. It seems unlikely we'll be in a recession but yes we'll be in a slump. Can this guy totally ruin us? Yes. But it isn't a guarantee yet. Also I'm just going to keep saying things here because I can't seem to ever leave a comment long enough that it isn't auto removed by the automod. Reddit can be really Fkn annoying sometimes am I right?
Only_Neighborhood_54 | 10 months ago
No recession people, did you see nvda’s last earnings? We were at ath on the indexes a couple weeks ago. Its a bull market people. Only problem right now is the idiot in the White House
donquixote2000 | 10 months ago
NVDA earnings are not correlated with the odds of recession. I'd rely more on the opinion of the Atlanta Fed, which is tasked with analyzing the entire market.
Only_Neighborhood_54 | 10 months ago
Okay what about the New York fed that forecasts 3.0% growth. Who is right?
donquixote2000 | 10 months ago
Neither. They are forecasts. Based on models. But you weren't using either in forming your No recession argument.
Only_Neighborhood_54 | 10 months ago
I don’t know, but what says we are heading into a recession? All we have had was stock market panic and that because of that orangutan in office fucking with everyones mind
donquixote2000 | 10 months ago
We shall see.
devliegende | 10 months ago
The key question to ask whether the ATH of a couple of weeks ago will turn out to have been the ATH for a couple weeks or a couple of years.
Only_Neighborhood_54 | 10 months ago
No one knows, but every dip theses days people freak out like crazy
Pythonbrongallday | 10 months ago
We've been in a recession on and off for years. We were in a recession in 2022, when we had 2 quarters of negative growth, (the literal definition) but the administration at the time, decided to rename the definition.
vfam51 | 10 months ago
No we have not been in a recession on and off for years. That’s nonsense.
Pythonbrongallday | 10 months ago
That's not nonsense, that's facts but let me guess, even now, when the feds tell you the economy is doing great, you believe them. 🤣
I'll take the word of the millions that have been struggling for years, can't afford groceries without putting them on a credit card, can't afford to move out of their parents place, can't even afford life in general, over the fed.
vfam51 | 10 months ago
Cost of living pressures and people struggling is not a recession Einstein.
Stick to factual data you can back up.
Pythonbrongallday | 10 months ago
Cost of living and people struggling is literally the definition of a recession. Lmao. Our economy is based on consumer spending and consumers pumping more money into it. When consumers stop spending as much and the economy slows.... that's a fucking recession.
vfam51 | 10 months ago
LOL. Jesus you’re just making sh!t up as you go to cover your azz.
Pythonbrongallday | 10 months ago
Making shit up? OK man, go listen to daddy government like a good little boy. The U.S. is doing amazing, everyone is rich as fuck, no 36 trillion dollars in debt here. Everyone is still flush with cash from covid and soooo happy.
vfam51 | 10 months ago
You can keep imagining my view on the economy if you want. You’re just trying to deflect from the fact that you’re economically ignorant. You just made up a super weird definition of a recession. and tried to pass it off as the “literal definition”. LOL.
I get it. You’re uneducated and bitter. But you think you’re really smart so you take license to just make sh!t up and think people will just believe you.
It just makes you sound super dumb.
I have an MBA with a focus on Macroeconomics so I don’t need google. But, you can find the actual longstanding definition easily. Here’s some help Jethro.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/recession/
Pythonbrongallday | 10 months ago
Bitter? Why would I be bitter? You're literally making shit up as you tell me I'm making shit up. 🤣🤣
Bro, I have a family, home, $20,000 worth of snakes I love and equipment, guns, live peacefully out in the country, my families health. I'm far from bitter.
vfam51 | 10 months ago
You fabricated out of thin air the “literal” definition of a recession. Explain that.
And yes… bitter. You’re on here crying about people not being able to afford anything or buy a house,etc. and then you come on here bragging about $20k in snakes like that’s a flex? Wow. you’re rolling dude.
I’m gonna wait for you to explain why you lied about what a recession is. Until you take the L and admit that you just made it up, I’ll sit back and enjoy knowing you’re just weak.
redrabbit1977 | 10 months ago
You need to use different words. What you're talking about is not recession. That's why everyone is laughing and downvoting you.
Pythonbrongallday | 10 months ago
When I buy $2000 snakes, that's money in someone's pocket, they use to go buy more shit, keeping the economy going.
You buy a coffee, coffee shop pays bills, pays employees, expands, keeps pumping along.
AllThingsWierd | 10 months ago
You're a snake breeding Trump supporter trying to give out econ lessons 🤣🤣🤣
goinupthegranby | 10 months ago
Sir this is the economics subreddit, not the 'word of the millions' subreddit
devliegende | 10 months ago
Have you considered the possibility that it was only you who've been struggling on and off for several years?
To struggle is bad and you have my sympathies but when they talk about "the economy" it's about the average person, not the stragglers.
froandfear | 10 months ago
The NBER did not change their definition, which was and continues to be more complex than two quarters negative GDP.
AllThingsWierd | 10 months ago
Bro you're a trump supporter that breeds snakes. Econ ain't your strong point
tackle | 10 months ago
Sorry, this is not r/conservative. This is real life where facts are facts.
fumar | 10 months ago
Yeah that was bullshit on their part. That one was not self inflicted though like this coming one will be.
Pythonbrongallday | 10 months ago
And? It's still a recession and yes, it was self inflicted. Lmao. What do you mean? Trump and Biden printed 40% of all the money in the history of the U.S. in a few years.
A lot of you are so brainwashed, you don't even understand how bad things truly are and they are going to get a whole lot worse.
The U.S. is currently adding 1 trillion in debt every 100 days. The American consumer is now over 1 trillion dollars in credit card debt. Repos and foreclosures are surging. Inflation is going back up. Interest rates will be going back up to combat rising inflation. The average home price is almost 500k for a single family home. Unemployment is about to skyrocket.
2008 will be amazing compared to what's coming.
vfam51 | 10 months ago
2022 was not a recession. You should refresh your source.
There was Trump’s recession in 2020, The great recession 13 yrs prior and the 2001 recession this century. That’s not remotely close to “in and out” of recessions.
Pythonbrongallday | 10 months ago
In 2022, was there not 2 quarters of negative growth? Yes or no.
vfam51 | 10 months ago
Nope. It was in fact 1 qtr. Try to keep up champ.
Initial economic data point releases are literally always revised and have been for many decades. That’s why the US has always relied on the same panel to determine if we’re in a recession. And that’s why 2022 was never considered a recession. Job growth was robust, consumer confidence was improving, and the initial GDP forecast was a negligible retraction. Essentially flat. They predicted it was an anomaly and they were right.
That’s not some conspiracy of the Biden admin “redefining the definition” of a recession.
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/26/2022-recession-gdp-revision
Successful_Rest_9138 | 10 months ago
I was going by the 2 quarters of negative growth as well, but I've been trying to study and increase my understanding in response to Trumps tariffs and current economic outlook. I think there was some political spin by the Biden administration to avoid the negative political impact, but there wasnt lies or misinformation.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official authority on declaring US recessions. Having 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth is a common indicator, but it's not the full definition. Also the Bureau of Economic Analysis did revise their information based on more complete data. They stated that Q2 2022 that GDP grew by 0.3% so no we didnt have 2 quarters of negative growth. The NBER take into account job growth, economic spending, and industrial production. Job growth was still good, unemployment wasn't rising, consumer spending was still strong, and industrial production was also growing.
We could get more into the specifics, but point is no we didnt have two quarters of negative GDP growth and even if we did that doesn't official declare a recession because other metrics need to be accounted for to paint the whole picture.
AspenLF | 10 months ago
No there wasn't. Early data showed it but was revised up with more data.
Other data shiwed we weren't even close to a recession.
This raw data is all available online
Poopedinbed | 10 months ago
If that was a recession we did pretty well
CapeMOGuy | 10 months ago
There's nothing sudden about it as the headline tries to make it sound. The economy was already in perilous shape. For 2023 and 2024 GDP growth in the non-govt portion of the economy was negative.
The only part of the economy for the last 2 years where GDP grew was govt. And the growth was due to massive spending and debt. Govt spending in 2024 was 50% above pre-COVID 2019.
Basically, gigantic deficits papered over a 2-year recession. If deficits had "only" been $1T we would ha e been in recession for 2 years now.
Edit: Can't reply because thread is locked. GDPP, whatever that is, is not what I posted about. Here are the raw numbers I alluded to. Deficits papered over a recession in the rest of the economy.
Deficits: FY2023: 1.69T FY2024: 1.86T
GDP growth: FY2023: 1.6T FY2024: 1.5T
Mrknowitall666 | 10 months ago
Nah, consumer spending is always about 2/3rds of GDP and consumers have savings and higher wages, despite inflation. Fixed investment was also positive.
Consumer sentiment has been tanking since Trump took office, because of layoffs, tariffs and his rhetoric. And if inflation doesn't come lower, rates won't decline. So, that's the headwind to consumer spending and jobs. Which will give us a recession versus the soft landing the Fed orchestrated
thecodeofsilence | 10 months ago
https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/take-the-government-out-of-gdp/
That’s not a true statement. GDPP (gross domestic private product) was positive in lockstep with traditional GDP.
HtownCg | 10 months ago
What are you talking about? The economy was at an all time HIGH and inflation was basically ZERO when Biden/Harris handed it off to MOSCOW DON. Now look! Him and Nazi sympathizer Elon are gonna drive this thing off a cliff and try to blame it on poor old BIDEN. All Biden ever tried to do was be a morally decent man.
CapeMOGuy | 10 months ago
Inflation was 3% when Biden left office.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
And none of that refutes anything I said about GDP growth anyway.
HtownCg | 10 months ago
I was impersonating the average brain dead Redditor response when discussing the economy under trump. The scary part is that it easily passes as 100% serious
CapeMOGuy | 10 months ago
I'm sorry I couldn't tell that from a typical reply to my political and economics comments. ☹️
YahoooUwU | 10 months ago
You scare incredibly easily.
SorbetStrong8029 | 10 months ago
Biden was anything but moral! And the rest of the crime syndicate
RynheartTheReluctant | 10 months ago
>And the rest of the crime syndicate
You must surely be referring to Trump, Koch, the Heritage Foundation and the Tech bros.
Pee-Pee-TP | 10 months ago
We've been heading to a recession for 4 years. Everyone's seen this, and it goes back years.
Stimulus and Covid payouts gave people enough runway to hang themselves and the only thing holding up the economy was the money made by people selling houses from 2020-now.
It's been a balloon and now it's time.
SenseMotor5435 | 10 months ago
We have been in a recession since 2022 idk why everyones heads are spinning now. I hate the guy just as much as you but this is only going to make extremists worse if we keep spewing nonsense.
CapeMOGuy | 10 months ago
There's nothing sudden about it as the headline tries to make it sound. The economy was already in perilous shape. For 2023 and 2024 GDP growth in the non-govt portion of the economy was negative.
The only part of the economy for the last 2 years where GDP grew was govt. And the growth was due to massive spending and debt. Govt spending in 2024 was 50% above pre-COVID 2019.
Basically, gigantic deficits papered over a 2-year recession. If deficits had "only" been $1T we would ha e been in recession for 2 years now.
Edit: Thread is locked so I can no longer reply. Here are the numbers I alluded to:
Deficits: FY2023: 1.69T FY2024: 1.86T
GDP growth: FY2023: 1.6T FY2024: 1.5T
devliegende | 10 months ago
You're making a good argument for why deficits were needed then
CapeMOGuy | 10 months ago
There's nothing sudden about it as the headline tries to make it sound. The economy was already in perilous shape. For 2023 and 2024 GDP growth in the non-govt portion of the economy was negative.
The only part of the economy for the last 2 years where GDP grew was govt. And the growth was due to massive spending and debt. Govt spending in 2024 was 50% above pre-COVID 2019.
Basically, gigantic deficits papered over a 2-year recession. If deficits had "only" been $1T we would ha e been in recession for 2 years now.