Long before the Trump administration started deporting hundreds of thousands of immigrants, many with school-age children, public schools nationwide faced a massive and accelerating drop in student enrollment caused mostly by shrinking families.
"Birth rates here in Los Angeles County have been declining for decades, which means fewer children enrolled in our schools," said Kelly Gonez, a board member in the LA Unified School District (LAUSD), the second largest in the country, which lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades.
But Los Angeles isn't alone. The population of children under age 18 began to fall nationwide after 2010, according to U.S. Census data, dropping by roughly 2.1 million kids through 2025.
With public schools in much of the country facing a demographic cliff, the Trump administration last year began detaining and expelling large numbers of foreign residents. A study by the Migration Policy Institute found as many as 1.9 million people left the U.S. during the first 18 months of Trump's second term.
As part of the crackdown effort, federal officials weakened restrictions that prevented ICE agents from operating near public schools. "Many of our families immediately went into hiding," Gonez said. "We were predicting a 2% drop in enrollment. It was double that."
Researchers who study education and population trends aren't surprised.
This is the first time in nearly a century, since the era of the Great Depression, that birth rates and immigration levels are low at the same time. Large-scale deportations mean even bigger and more rapid changes in areas with large immigrant communities.
Based on data gathered before Trump's immigration crackdown began, federal researchers project enrollment will decline by at least another 2 million students by 2030. That would mean a 7% national decline in roughly a decade.
Declining birth rates + less immigrants + more private, charter, and homeschooling is definitely a powerful combination to reduce public school enrollment.
I wonder how counties will deal with that? There could be a sense in shutting down existing schools and consolidating say, the three elementary schools' districts into two schools. There is an obvious efficiency there, you'll need less support staff overall and you don't have to pay for water/electricity for three schools.
But, you do already own the buildings and I'm sure they are difficult to repurpose/sell. Also, there is a transportation efficiency in having more schools closer to more children. Also, what if some societal trend brings birth rates, public-schooling, and immigration back up? To allow a school to be destroyed or cease maintaining it and allow it to go into disarray seems risky given that possibility.
But overall, I'm sure we're going to see a lot of school-zone consolidation in the next 10 years, and many older (and likely less attractive/costlier to maintain schools) will be destroyed. Maybe a couple of old schools get turned into daycares, homeless shelters, or private schools, but I'm sure those will be the minority.
It can't be that difficult to sell an elementary school. Developers buy strip malls and old apartment buildings to tear them down and turn them into highrise condos or 5 over 1 apartment buildings all the time.
This is a good point. My simple mind naturally goes to complex solutions to repurpose the schools as they stand. But yeah, just tearing the school down and building some 5 over 1 apartment complexes on top of these often conveniently-located campuses could be financially viable in many places.
One school in Chicago have been converted into condos. It was a beautiful early 1900s schoolrooms with hardwood floors and real plaster walls and 14ft ceilings.
The factors you mentioned are the ones driving the problems but recognizing that if the first step in addressing them. First we need to understand that funding for all of this comes from the Federal Government because they have the sole authority to create the money to address the problems.
Secondly, the Trump administration’s wrongheaded policy of defunding education must be reversed and funding for the forever wars diverted to rebuilding and renovating schools for the 21st century that are relevant today. This includes developing the infrastructure and skills for rebuilding our teaching system at all levels.
Actually we have surplus commercial real estate that we can repurpose for this as well as housing too. But the trillions of dollars wasted of weapons and infrastructure for foreign wars must be used instead for purposes like this.
We really need a set of progress in the mold of the New Deal and the Great Society immediately to make this happen. Something very similar to what happened in mainland China.
We have the resources and skills needed to make this happen. We just need to plan, mobilize and implement those programs now. There are people who can and will make this happen once we identify and mobilize them. But we need to get politicians who will work to make this possible. And get rid of the the ones who made the problems in the first place. Inappropriate privatization has to be dismantled.
It's intentional. Our marketing and enrollment depts at a state university I worked at have been preparing for this since Q1 2025 around the time they fired all remote-working staff due to federal pressure to "return to work" or have funding withheld.
Population decline from the bottom up is in fact bad. It's statistical evidence of the inability of a species to procreate. The USA isn't the best or worst country, it's economy is an excellent barometer for everyone else because of its size, population strata, amount of global commerce, and property rights.
North American homo sapiens are declining despite having zero other predators to worry about, 57% of jobs being office oriented, having access to shelter from climate change, and reporting constantly that they have a near infinite supply of assets. That means that a species free of natural danger and comfortable enough to get fat (in a good way) can't do what it is biologically designed to do. This means that at least one of the factors above is in fact false. The only one that could possibly be is the asset supply, which is the worst possible economic news you could ever imagine hearing. Asset hoarding makes all of the modern world happen. The moment it doesn't functionally exist we go back to the dark ages.
While many polarizing opinions exist on the matter, the fact that less and less children exist, pushes a capitalist society to compensate the short term fallout which would normally increase immigration. Even if that happens now it doesn't guarantee those immigrants will be able to have children either. There's something functionally wrong with the demographic area. Are the assets spoiled? Did the assets ever exist? Does the timeline between when Americans had a boom of babies and now show any biological indicators at the cellular level?
If I understand correctly, even a linear rate of decline would still be about 1,000 years before we'd reach 50% population. Given that if we don't cut off carbon emissions in four years time we enter carbon sink state globally which erodes precipitation to zero within about 800 years. If more than just cutting carbon emissions isn't done by 2040 the increased ocean surface temperatures self perpetuate until the microorganisms responsible for 70% of oxygen die off and oxygen levels to plant crops drop below threshold around 2150. And before that happens we have world leaders currently threatening nuclear strikes. Am I off about this?
There are positives to this. NYC DOE is reducing class sizes to 20 in elementary and 25 in high schools. This is only possible because of the reduction in the number of students, and hopefully leads to better education for the kids who are there.
[OP] npr | 17 hours ago
Long before the Trump administration started deporting hundreds of thousands of immigrants, many with school-age children, public schools nationwide faced a massive and accelerating drop in student enrollment caused mostly by shrinking families.
"Birth rates here in Los Angeles County have been declining for decades, which means fewer children enrolled in our schools," said Kelly Gonez, a board member in the LA Unified School District (LAUSD), the second largest in the country, which lost more than 300,000 students over the last two decades.
But Los Angeles isn't alone. The population of children under age 18 began to fall nationwide after 2010, according to U.S. Census data, dropping by roughly 2.1 million kids through 2025.
With public schools in much of the country facing a demographic cliff, the Trump administration last year began detaining and expelling large numbers of foreign residents. A study by the Migration Policy Institute found as many as 1.9 million people left the U.S. during the first 18 months of Trump's second term.
As part of the crackdown effort, federal officials weakened restrictions that prevented ICE agents from operating near public schools. "Many of our families immediately went into hiding," Gonez said. "We were predicting a 2% drop in enrollment. It was double that."
Researchers who study education and population trends aren't surprised.
This is the first time in nearly a century, since the era of the Great Depression, that birth rates and immigration levels are low at the same time. Large-scale deportations mean even bigger and more rapid changes in areas with large immigrant communities.
Based on data gathered before Trump's immigration crackdown began, federal researchers project enrollment will decline by at least another 2 million students by 2030. That would mean a 7% national decline in roughly a decade.
Kevim_A | 13 hours ago
Declining birth rates + less immigrants + more private, charter, and homeschooling is definitely a powerful combination to reduce public school enrollment.
I wonder how counties will deal with that? There could be a sense in shutting down existing schools and consolidating say, the three elementary schools' districts into two schools. There is an obvious efficiency there, you'll need less support staff overall and you don't have to pay for water/electricity for three schools.
But, you do already own the buildings and I'm sure they are difficult to repurpose/sell. Also, there is a transportation efficiency in having more schools closer to more children. Also, what if some societal trend brings birth rates, public-schooling, and immigration back up? To allow a school to be destroyed or cease maintaining it and allow it to go into disarray seems risky given that possibility.
But overall, I'm sure we're going to see a lot of school-zone consolidation in the next 10 years, and many older (and likely less attractive/costlier to maintain schools) will be destroyed. Maybe a couple of old schools get turned into daycares, homeless shelters, or private schools, but I'm sure those will be the minority.
MajesticBread9147 | 12 hours ago
It can't be that difficult to sell an elementary school. Developers buy strip malls and old apartment buildings to tear them down and turn them into highrise condos or 5 over 1 apartment buildings all the time.
Kevim_A | 12 hours ago
This is a good point. My simple mind naturally goes to complex solutions to repurpose the schools as they stand. But yeah, just tearing the school down and building some 5 over 1 apartment complexes on top of these often conveniently-located campuses could be financially viable in many places.
abielle1177 | 10 hours ago
If they can be torn down they're worth a fortune.
This scenario has been a problem since the 1970s. There is nothing new here. Lets move on.
Chicago1871 | 11 hours ago
One school in Chicago have been converted into condos. It was a beautiful early 1900s schoolrooms with hardwood floors and real plaster walls and 14ft ceilings.
Theyre actually stunning units.
digitalgimp | an hour ago
The factors you mentioned are the ones driving the problems but recognizing that if the first step in addressing them. First we need to understand that funding for all of this comes from the Federal Government because they have the sole authority to create the money to address the problems.
Secondly, the Trump administration’s wrongheaded policy of defunding education must be reversed and funding for the forever wars diverted to rebuilding and renovating schools for the 21st century that are relevant today. This includes developing the infrastructure and skills for rebuilding our teaching system at all levels.
Actually we have surplus commercial real estate that we can repurpose for this as well as housing too. But the trillions of dollars wasted of weapons and infrastructure for foreign wars must be used instead for purposes like this.
We really need a set of progress in the mold of the New Deal and the Great Society immediately to make this happen. Something very similar to what happened in mainland China.
We have the resources and skills needed to make this happen. We just need to plan, mobilize and implement those programs now. There are people who can and will make this happen once we identify and mobilize them. But we need to get politicians who will work to make this possible. And get rid of the the ones who made the problems in the first place. Inappropriate privatization has to be dismantled.
Seneca_B | 13 hours ago
It's intentional. Our marketing and enrollment depts at a state university I worked at have been preparing for this since Q1 2025 around the time they fired all remote-working staff due to federal pressure to "return to work" or have funding withheld.
PortablePenguinoo | 12 hours ago
Isnt this a good thing? Most public schools are already tight on resources.
Corporate_Overlords | 6 hours ago
They are just going to shut schools and consolidate. They are going to fire teachers and class sizes will still be too high.
persian_mamba | 12 hours ago
Yea I'm confused by this. Less kids plus same tax revenue should mean public schools improving right
redbananass | 3 hours ago
A lot of federal school funding (like title 9 schools) is based somewhat on student numbers. Less students, less money.
GreenMycologist87 | 22 minutes ago
Population decline from the bottom up is in fact bad. It's statistical evidence of the inability of a species to procreate. The USA isn't the best or worst country, it's economy is an excellent barometer for everyone else because of its size, population strata, amount of global commerce, and property rights.
North American homo sapiens are declining despite having zero other predators to worry about, 57% of jobs being office oriented, having access to shelter from climate change, and reporting constantly that they have a near infinite supply of assets. That means that a species free of natural danger and comfortable enough to get fat (in a good way) can't do what it is biologically designed to do. This means that at least one of the factors above is in fact false. The only one that could possibly be is the asset supply, which is the worst possible economic news you could ever imagine hearing. Asset hoarding makes all of the modern world happen. The moment it doesn't functionally exist we go back to the dark ages.
While many polarizing opinions exist on the matter, the fact that less and less children exist, pushes a capitalist society to compensate the short term fallout which would normally increase immigration. Even if that happens now it doesn't guarantee those immigrants will be able to have children either. There's something functionally wrong with the demographic area. Are the assets spoiled? Did the assets ever exist? Does the timeline between when Americans had a boom of babies and now show any biological indicators at the cellular level?
GreenMycologist87 | 13 hours ago
If I understand correctly, even a linear rate of decline would still be about 1,000 years before we'd reach 50% population. Given that if we don't cut off carbon emissions in four years time we enter carbon sink state globally which erodes precipitation to zero within about 800 years. If more than just cutting carbon emissions isn't done by 2040 the increased ocean surface temperatures self perpetuate until the microorganisms responsible for 70% of oxygen die off and oxygen levels to plant crops drop below threshold around 2150. And before that happens we have world leaders currently threatening nuclear strikes. Am I off about this?
Famous-Prior6590 | an hour ago
There are positives to this. NYC DOE is reducing class sizes to 20 in elementary and 25 in high schools. This is only possible because of the reduction in the number of students, and hopefully leads to better education for the kids who are there.