I’ve done a few gas price forecasts, recently, for a 4 figure person attendance economics summit.
The forecasts (a few metro areas in CA specific) say unlikely until mid-2027, and that’s only if it reopens today.
If it stays functionally shut until after the summer driving season (or end of year), it won’t be until 2028 until it normalizes.
In the opens today forecast, gas prices peak in August, before falling slowly over time, until May 2027, we get to where prices would have been.
In worst case scenario (closed rest of year), average gas prices peak January 2027. The price would be $9.03 (Los Angeles), $8.89 (San Diego), and $9.19 (San Fran). They would fall more rapidly, but take longer to get back to normal.
Even if you don’t drive, because I don’t, we’re still fucked because all goods are rooted in transportation. My bike to the grocery store is still more expensive because of this war
All I have to say is midterms. Fucking get out and vote. Vote with your wallet. Everything more expensive now because of orange man's decision? Fucking vote. Get these fuckers out.
Total crude inventory in the US (including the SPR) seems to be falling off a cliff, and if it maintains the current rate, we'll go below the 5y low (from 2023) in about 2 weeks.
You think the administration will try to stop companies from selling crude and related products out of the US when that happens?
No; the past few years has seen loosening of restrictions on oil exports that we haven’t seen in a long time. I don’t think we get back to severe restrictions.
The longer this situation lasts, the closer we get to a sudden and exponential rise in costs. Refiners are running at lower capacity and drawing down their exisiting inventory of refined products, and overall feedstock is also getting drawn down.
EU and South Asia will be particularly hit hard when that happens. It will get really messy after that, as I don't really sense enough demand destruction (if any at all). Policy makers will have their work cut out for them.
Damn. We should be investing in solar, wind, and geothermal to offload the energy demands from oil to something that’s a little bit more consistent and stable.
Interesting, that's actually more optimistic than some forecasts I've seen.
The problem is that a lot of oil & gas infrastructure in the Gulf has been damaged, and it will take a long time to repair. I'm seeing estimates of 2-4 years before the GCC nations get back to the level of oil & gas exports they had in February.
Did your forecasts account for that? Or do think that won't matter in the US, because we're less dependent on foreign oil?
So, it was CA specific, and we don’t have an easy way to refine product or a pipeline from the east coast, so it’s a lot from Asia. It did take it into account, but those estimates are also very tightly held trade secrets, so there is a lot of uncertainty in them.
You're asking a moron whose blaming dem voters and not say, oh idk, republicans for this mess. I think you're asking for too high a bar to be cleared here.
You have a point there. I must've misunderstood their comment to be about democrat voters nationwide sitting out and blaming that on Trump winning. My bad!
On top of all that, trump admin cancelled all renewable energy projects while data centres are being built. America is fucked, any growth would squeeze household because of energy or force a delay in these projects because of energy cost. It just seems so predictable. Perfect timeline for the second round of inflation of the 80’s before Volker stepped in. Time to insure your stocks or liquidate for the enviable at the point.
I try to look at the bright side of things, because why not. The upside is that we'll finally have a solid reason to get away from the oil economy, which is disastrous for the planet. Trump continues to be the accidental reason for the world moving to renewables.
I was wondering what that number was, thanks for providing that. That isn't as big as I was expecting, but especially in the context of the Trump administration's attempts to roll back climate protections and kill green energy projects, I'll take any reduction I can get.
Carbon that goes into plastics, rubbers, lubricants, etc. mostly doesn't end up in the atmosphere though. It creates its own environmental issues but isn't as big a contributor to climate change.
Add to your bright side that if gas prices continue to rise, we probably see the GOP lose the senate as well as the house.
Look at the actions this week. There is a real concern about republicans wanting to decouple from trump. I don’t know how far it goes or how long it lasts, but they’re about to get an earful during this break.
If the US goes after Castro is pretty much game over.
Problem is that China is ahead of the game on that one. They have better tech in many areas because their government has prioritized renewables while the United States have prioritized propping up their oil conglomerates. Hell, the United States is still trying to keep their coal industry afloat in areas that don't even need it. That means when the world seeks to convert to renewables, they will buy Chinese tech and products rather than buying American.
i mean "back to normal" is back to what kind of prices? like where we're at now? or like before the whole strait issue started? I worry that the gas companies will just realize that it's such an inelastic good they'll just keep prices elevated to whatever they want.
This is why energy shocks are so dangerous for the economy.Even if the Iran war ended tomorrow, fuel prices probably wouldn’t normalize quickly because oil markets price in disruption, fear, and supply risk long before actual shortages appear.The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20–25% of global oil flows, so even partial disruption changes inflation expectations worldwide. What stands out to me is how this spreads far beyond gas stations. Higher fuel costs eventually hit shipping, food, flights, manufacturing, and consumer confidence. The U.S. average gasoline price is already around $4.55 per gallon, up sharply since the conflict began, and analysts warn the war premium in oil could last months even after a ceasefire. Feels like markets are still underestimating how persistent energy-driven inflation can become once it gets embedded into the broader economy. This isn’t just an oil story anymore it’s becoming a macro story.
It's impressive how quickly MAGA has shifted the narrative to "normal" prices. Even more impressive is how they get away with not defining what normal is. $4/gallon? $3/gallon? I don't want a fucking normal gas price. I want a price that makes up for the 5 dollars a gallon I have been and will be paying for the foreseeable future.
So let's hear it, Republicans: when can we expect gas to fall to $1.50/gallon (and for how long) to make up for the Epstein War?
I think stagflation is more or less baked in at this point. I'm choosing to be optimistic by believing this is for the best, because Americans insisted on touching the stove by re-electing Trump and getting burned by truly traumatic economic pain might be one of the only things capable of teaching them not to do anything that stupid again.
I think you are overly optimistic. Some people are stubborn and will refuse to change their opinions or behavior rather than admitting to themselves that they were wrong.
I agree wirh you some people will never reconsider their views. Hoover got 40% of the vote even after doing nothing but making the Great Depression worse for three years. You may be right that it's too many to make a difference. I hope not because we're cooked otherwise.
Its Trump, his supporters and the market investors & economy will get a good shift upward once he gets his butt out of Iran/US "interests" and can finally focus more on the economy and the US people itself.
He can play the economy game if he wills, but his current will is more on US interests and has been sense his first presidency (his 1st presidency was the anti-China game..... which backfired)
Aren’t the terms basically what Iran had already proposed before the war? So what was the point of going to war—spending tens of billions, causing U.S. casualties, and sacrificing the American public economy? It seems like they turned a previously functioning Strait of Hormuz into a vulnerability for no reason.
One thing Ive learned about investing and social/news cycle is :
News Media : The situation is/will be bad
Social Media : The situation is WAY WORSE than what the news is saying its going to be
Reality : Overtime - Prices stabilize, uncertainty is gone, markets adjust to supply/demand. Stock market all time highs. Governments across the globe adjust fiscal policies to support economies.
EconomistWithaD | 3 hours ago
I’ve done a few gas price forecasts, recently, for a 4 figure person attendance economics summit.
The forecasts (a few metro areas in CA specific) say unlikely until mid-2027, and that’s only if it reopens today.
If it stays functionally shut until after the summer driving season (or end of year), it won’t be until 2028 until it normalizes.
In the opens today forecast, gas prices peak in August, before falling slowly over time, until May 2027, we get to where prices would have been.
In worst case scenario (closed rest of year), average gas prices peak January 2027. The price would be $9.03 (Los Angeles), $8.89 (San Diego), and $9.19 (San Fran). They would fall more rapidly, but take longer to get back to normal.
So, decent chance drivers are fucked.
tombrady011235 | 3 hours ago
Even if you don’t drive, because I don’t, we’re still fucked because all goods are rooted in transportation. My bike to the grocery store is still more expensive because of this war
EconomistWithaD | 3 hours ago
Yes. You’re going to see food prices accelerate (fuel and fertilizer), but a lot of goods and services prices will see pressure soon too.
CurzesTeddybear | an hour ago
And don't forget food prices are getting hit twice, first by the cost of fertilizer, second by the cost of transporting them to market
Alphadestrious | 32 minutes ago
All I have to say is midterms. Fucking get out and vote. Vote with your wallet. Everything more expensive now because of orange man's decision? Fucking vote. Get these fuckers out.
AngelousSix66 | 3 hours ago
Total crude inventory in the US (including the SPR) seems to be falling off a cliff, and if it maintains the current rate, we'll go below the 5y low (from 2023) in about 2 weeks.
You think the administration will try to stop companies from selling crude and related products out of the US when that happens?
EconomistWithaD | 3 hours ago
No; the past few years has seen loosening of restrictions on oil exports that we haven’t seen in a long time. I don’t think we get back to severe restrictions.
We want to be an energy exporter.
AngelousSix66 | 2 hours ago
The longer this situation lasts, the closer we get to a sudden and exponential rise in costs. Refiners are running at lower capacity and drawing down their exisiting inventory of refined products, and overall feedstock is also getting drawn down.
EU and South Asia will be particularly hit hard when that happens. It will get really messy after that, as I don't really sense enough demand destruction (if any at all). Policy makers will have their work cut out for them.
BobbyBucherBabineaux | 3 hours ago
Damn. We should be investing in solar, wind, and geothermal to offload the energy demands from oil to something that’s a little bit more consistent and stable.
Why didn’t we think of that 10-20 years ago?
EconomistWithaD | 2 hours ago
Hey, I’ve done my part in doing several economic impact studies to justify solar farms.
Even in CA, regulatory red tape kills them.
Wurm42 | 3 hours ago
Interesting, that's actually more optimistic than some forecasts I've seen.
The problem is that a lot of oil & gas infrastructure in the Gulf has been damaged, and it will take a long time to repair. I'm seeing estimates of 2-4 years before the GCC nations get back to the level of oil & gas exports they had in February.
Did your forecasts account for that? Or do think that won't matter in the US, because we're less dependent on foreign oil?
EconomistWithaD | 3 hours ago
So, it was CA specific, and we don’t have an easy way to refine product or a pipeline from the east coast, so it’s a lot from Asia. It did take it into account, but those estimates are also very tightly held trade secrets, so there is a lot of uncertainty in them.
Apprehensive-Ad9523 | 2 hours ago
No excuses now. You got what you voted for. And the stupid Dems helped.
EconomistWithaD | 2 hours ago
Can you make a post that makes sense?
sundayfundaybmx | 2 hours ago
You're asking a moron whose blaming dem voters and not say, oh idk, republicans for this mess. I think you're asking for too high a bar to be cleared here.
EconomistWithaD | 2 hours ago
I mean, CA has its fair share of blunders related to oil production and refining. We will see a disparate and quicker impact.
sundayfundaybmx | an hour ago
You have a point there. I must've misunderstood their comment to be about democrat voters nationwide sitting out and blaming that on Trump winning. My bad!
EconomistWithaD | an hour ago
Not your bad. I’m still trying to figure out what the fuck they are actually saying.
DeepPeeps | 2 hours ago
On top of all that, trump admin cancelled all renewable energy projects while data centres are being built. America is fucked, any growth would squeeze household because of energy or force a delay in these projects because of energy cost. It just seems so predictable. Perfect timeline for the second round of inflation of the 80’s before Volker stepped in. Time to insure your stocks or liquidate for the enviable at the point.
Dadoftwingirls | 3 hours ago
I try to look at the bright side of things, because why not. The upside is that we'll finally have a solid reason to get away from the oil economy, which is disastrous for the planet. Trump continues to be the accidental reason for the world moving to renewables.
EconomistWithaD | 3 hours ago
It may portend a deeper shift to EV’s, but we aren’t getting away from oil. It’s in everything. Pharma. Plastics. Cosmetics.
Especially after Trump shocking the supply chain already .
holymacaronibatman | 3 hours ago
But we can significantly reduce our consumption of oil if this shock does result in a big shift to EVs and Hybrids
EconomistWithaD | 3 hours ago
45% of oil is for auto fuel (not diesel). It won’t be as big of a drop as many would probably hope for (with regards to the climate).
holymacaronibatman | 3 hours ago
I was wondering what that number was, thanks for providing that. That isn't as big as I was expecting, but especially in the context of the Trump administration's attempts to roll back climate protections and kill green energy projects, I'll take any reduction I can get.
EconomistWithaD | 3 hours ago
Hey, economics is about marginal improvements.
Now if only the tangerine turd can have something painful, debilitating, but non-fatal.
holymacaronibatman | 3 hours ago
In an effort not to fedpost, I'll say I agree with all but one of your points
EconomistWithaD | 2 hours ago
😃
Xeynon | 2 hours ago
Carbon that goes into plastics, rubbers, lubricants, etc. mostly doesn't end up in the atmosphere though. It creates its own environmental issues but isn't as big a contributor to climate change.
Dadoftwingirls | 3 hours ago
Don't forget fertilizer!
We're lucky to be in Canada, where we have lots of potash, but it's priced globally, of course.
We're also lucky to have immense resources to move to a more electrified economy.
EconomistWithaD | 3 hours ago
Yes. Absolutely. Fertilizer, helium, aluminum. The strait is an all inclusive shock.
CliftonForce | 3 hours ago
The meme is "Reduce, Reuse, Recycle", not "Eliminate."
EconomistWithaD | 3 hours ago
I understand that, but perhaps look at the language used by the person I’m responding to?
AustinBike | 2 hours ago
Add to your bright side that if gas prices continue to rise, we probably see the GOP lose the senate as well as the house.
Look at the actions this week. There is a real concern about republicans wanting to decouple from trump. I don’t know how far it goes or how long it lasts, but they’re about to get an earful during this break.
If the US goes after Castro is pretty much game over.
Alarmed_Guarantee140 | 2 hours ago
Problem is that China is ahead of the game on that one. They have better tech in many areas because their government has prioritized renewables while the United States have prioritized propping up their oil conglomerates. Hell, the United States is still trying to keep their coal industry afloat in areas that don't even need it. That means when the world seeks to convert to renewables, they will buy Chinese tech and products rather than buying American.
tombrady011235 | 3 hours ago
I feel like we’re going to learn nothing from this and improve nothing
Dadoftwingirls | 3 hours ago
Probably true
ChoppedChef33 | an hour ago
i mean "back to normal" is back to what kind of prices? like where we're at now? or like before the whole strait issue started? I worry that the gas companies will just realize that it's such an inelastic good they'll just keep prices elevated to whatever they want.
EconomistWithaD | an hour ago
It’s a globally traded commodity, and sellers of gas have very limited pricing power.
It will go back to pre-Strait prices.
ChoppedChef33 | an hour ago
thank you!
Apprehensive-Ad9523 | 2 hours ago
Oh it will "normalize" at least 100.oo gallon. Watch. Closer to 120.00
Spectrum1523 | 2 hours ago
living divorced from reality is bad no matter what side you're on.
Illustrious_Lie_954 | 3 hours ago
This is why energy shocks are so dangerous for the economy.Even if the Iran war ended tomorrow, fuel prices probably wouldn’t normalize quickly because oil markets price in disruption, fear, and supply risk long before actual shortages appear.The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20–25% of global oil flows, so even partial disruption changes inflation expectations worldwide. What stands out to me is how this spreads far beyond gas stations. Higher fuel costs eventually hit shipping, food, flights, manufacturing, and consumer confidence. The U.S. average gasoline price is already around $4.55 per gallon, up sharply since the conflict began, and analysts warn the war premium in oil could last months even after a ceasefire. Feels like markets are still underestimating how persistent energy-driven inflation can become once it gets embedded into the broader economy. This isn’t just an oil story anymore it’s becoming a macro story.
TheHomersapien | 2 hours ago
It's impressive how quickly MAGA has shifted the narrative to "normal" prices. Even more impressive is how they get away with not defining what normal is. $4/gallon? $3/gallon? I don't want a fucking normal gas price. I want a price that makes up for the 5 dollars a gallon I have been and will be paying for the foreseeable future.
So let's hear it, Republicans: when can we expect gas to fall to $1.50/gallon (and for how long) to make up for the Epstein War?
Xeynon | 2 hours ago
I think stagflation is more or less baked in at this point. I'm choosing to be optimistic by believing this is for the best, because Americans insisted on touching the stove by re-electing Trump and getting burned by truly traumatic economic pain might be one of the only things capable of teaching them not to do anything that stupid again.
dweaver987 | 2 hours ago
I think you are overly optimistic. Some people are stubborn and will refuse to change their opinions or behavior rather than admitting to themselves that they were wrong.
Xeynon | 2 hours ago
I agree wirh you some people will never reconsider their views. Hoover got 40% of the vote even after doing nothing but making the Great Depression worse for three years. You may be right that it's too many to make a difference. I hope not because we're cooked otherwise.
Dizzy-Captain7422 | 55 minutes ago
The problem is that Republicans can simply blame trans people and their voters will swallow it down like the swine they are.
Zef-Daytrade | an hour ago
Its Trump, his supporters and the market investors & economy will get a good shift upward once he gets his butt out of Iran/US "interests" and can finally focus more on the economy and the US people itself.
He can play the economy game if he wills, but his current will is more on US interests and has been sense his first presidency (his 1st presidency was the anti-China game..... which backfired)
Bulky_Jellyfish9012 | an hour ago
Aren’t the terms basically what Iran had already proposed before the war? So what was the point of going to war—spending tens of billions, causing U.S. casualties, and sacrificing the American public economy? It seems like they turned a previously functioning Strait of Hormuz into a vulnerability for no reason.
128-NotePolyVA | 59 minutes ago
That is correct. And perhaps for the best if it means constituents and their elected officials might be inclined to limit the power of the presidency.
jennysonson | an hour ago
One thing Ive learned about investing and social/news cycle is :
News Media : The situation is/will be bad
Social Media : The situation is WAY WORSE than what the news is saying its going to be
Reality : Overtime - Prices stabilize, uncertainty is gone, markets adjust to supply/demand. Stock market all time highs. Governments across the globe adjust fiscal policies to support economies.