So, that is about 7% of the total oil flowing through Hormuz, in about 18 months.
This will have absolutely no impact on the economic consequences of Iran today. Best case scenario, this reduces Iran’s (as well as OPEC’s) grip slightly in the future.
Iran can target oilfields, pumping stations, depots, docks etc. and it looks like it's really difficult to protect everything from both missiles and drones
It's almost like human beings are intelligent and can adapt concepts to different circumstances...
If proactively building defense into their infrastructure is the new norm for the UAE, you can then build to protect against the main weapons of today (Shahed drones). But then Iran, if they want to destroy said infrastructure, will then just build new weapons that counteract building underground infrastructure.
One of the best ways to defend against this is to just make infrastructure incredibly cheap/efficient to easily repair.
Iran doesn't have to come out ahead, only to inflict more pain than his enemy are likely to support and their can't support the same pain levenl as Iran does.
If this was the only thing happening, you would be right, but it is reasonable to expect multiple initiatives like this from multiple countries which will all add up.
UAE is the only country geographically situated to bypass the strait. Saudi Arabia could build pipelines to the Red Sea, but that would be very costly and take many years. Also, they would have to transport all their oil past Yemen, which isn't guaranteed to be any safer than Hormuz.
Exactly, the port in Yanbu can only handle 5mbpd out of the 7mbpd of the pipeline capacity. KSA is already working on expanding port capacity, with some of the works finishing this year.
Saudi Arabian pipeline is already built to handle 7mil bpd. But the export port at Yanbu can only handle 5mil bpd, and expansion effort is already in progress.
Furthermore, the Kirkuk pipeline in Iraq has a capacity of 0.5mbpd, but it was closed due to political reasons before the war. It has been reopened and being scaled up, with still 0.3mbpd capacity left to increase.
Lastly, there are efforts to move oil via trucks, it's more expensive and limited, but Iraq is running such operation to thr Syrian port in Baniyas already to the tune of 0.15mbpd, similar efforts in UAE would be even more effective due to shorter distances, and are now in the works.
Iran is also trying to boost oil exports through train to Pakistan, some 100k's mbpd more would be returned to market through those means too.
Lastly, there is a general increase in oil production across the world, so the effect of those mbpd would be felt to finish the closing gap.
That’s not what it’s about. It’s about an impact, specifically on UAE’s ability to export even if no one else can.
Of course, if Iran wanted, the pipeline’s endpoint is still not more than a few miles further from Iran so it wouldn’t solve the problem at all; the entire UAE is well within Iranian missile range and easily within rocket range. The southeastern coast of UAE is only about 60 miles from Iran.
Iran exists and will play the game to continue existing. Inflicting the most pain on the US is how they think they can convince Americans to stop attempting regime change and airstrikes
Right? Which country decided to assasainate the others leaders and start a bombing campaign in the middle of negotiations, after starting a bombing campaign during the last negotiations?
Iran is not great, but we've made it impossible to claim the moral superiority.
That’s very problematic, but claiming moral superiority for a country that jails citizens without due process and deports them to foreign prisons because of skin color, randomly invades other countries, threatens to invade allies, doesn’t respect election results, pollutes the world and is sending the world into an economic tailspin that is likely to kill millions from famine is a very bold statement. And all this while staging a theocracy that does not think kindly about LBGTQ, women, and people of other religions.
We can certainly cause the deaths of millions of civilians. I’m not sure the regime would care. They’d hide in a mountain and launch random rockets until they all died.
The article was too factual, so the editor had to add a dollop of pro-Trump propaganda so the readership wouldn't get confused by the sudden appearance of facts.
Trump has done more for green energy and China than any anyone in history. Europe and Asia are plotting out a fossil fuel free economy by 2035 built on top of Chinese solar and wind products.
This seems more to me like a move with interesting geopolitical implications, meaning that the UAE will put on the market as much oil as they wish, and will curry favors with Iran in a good neighbouring policy in order to limit the risks for bad surprises.
Any plan for physical circumvention from Hormuz will take years and billions to have any parctical effect on a world energy market scale. But it fits with the intention agreed between the US, the EU, the middle east and India to create an alternative energy, communication and logistics route between all those blocs to put aside the strangleholds Russia and Iran have on the region.
They will not be cozying up to Iran, they were the biggest target by Iran, friends with Israel, Israel even lent them golden dome, and they even conducted their own strikes in Iran, likely on behalf of Israel. Their pipeline is a massive target and Iran will do anything to make that happen.
They are a target as long as they maintain their alignment with the US and Saudi Arabia. Leaving OPEC is a blow to the latter.
As for the US, don't underestimate how fluid are things currently in the middle east. They have been proven that the US security guarantee is basically worth peanuts, and have any interest to cozy up further with China, which turns out to be on cordial terms with Iran.
There is space here for further diplomatic manoeuver in the years ahead.
Pretty much the opposite is happening. The gulf states are strengthening ties with the US and Israel. Iran blindly attacking everyone in the region has soured opinions on them. Turns out bombing people is a bad way to get them to do what you want. You’d think Iran would have realized that when the US and Israel bombing them achieved the opposite goal.
So far only UAE has double down while Saudi, Kuwait, and Qatar have somewhat reach silent agreement not to attack or support the current war of United States and Israel on Iran. Since April, the escalation towards those 3 countries have been non existent and the recent report of retaliation were all attacks carried in March.
Nonetheless, maybe this was part of the ceasefire agreement brokered by Pakistan who is closed with Saudi but it's looking UAE is alone among the GCC right now.
It will be the opposite. The UAE are the most anti-Iran of the entire GCC, have cosied up with Israel, and demanded the US keep attacking during the kinetic war. They left OPEC partially out of anger with Iran, and the new pipeline is an attempt to cut Iran out of the equation.
It's more likely that if the Strait remains only partially open (with Iran granting access to countries like China, Malaysia, Pakistan, Iraq and eventually ones like Japan and France), the UAE will remain in the shit list and be denied passage or restricted more heavily. People forget that traffic travels in both directions, and the Gulf States are struggling to import enough food currently.
It’s funny how many people are saying that Iran will target this. Like of course they will if they could. They have been targeting the current pipeline for a while. And failing. 3000 missiles and drones in total, and the UAE blocked over 90% of that, and dealt with what went through.
The longer the Strait stays closed the more likely it becomes that the age of oil dependence reduces prematurely in which case the UAE is facing tough challenges from now on. The same goes for Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. China once again stands to benefit from the chaos as its solar and battery industries continue to crank up to supply the world with clean energy production equipment. It’s not hard to see a near future where oil is used for commercial transportation but not domestic transportation and solar and wind power ever bigger percentages of grids.
UAE is basically now a satellite state for Israel. That's why they went and setup Iron Dome there. I bet Iran is itching to level UAE once and for all if the war starts again.
EconomistWithaD | 14 days ago
An additional 1.4 million BBD, finished in 2027.
So, that is about 7% of the total oil flowing through Hormuz, in about 18 months.
This will have absolutely no impact on the economic consequences of Iran today. Best case scenario, this reduces Iran’s (as well as OPEC’s) grip slightly in the future.
caseybvdc74 | 14 days ago
Not to mention that it’s a military target
EconomistWithaD | 14 days ago
Absolutely. Agree 100%.
But I was working under the implicit assumption that these numbers are best case, no more war and no more closure, outcomes.
uzmifune | 13 days ago
A target that is literally closer to Iran than most urban commutes in the US!
averysmallbeing | 14 days ago
Or like two dudes and a camel really.
MrF_lawblog | 13 days ago
Are they acting like Iran can't target that pipeline?
zanzara1968 | 13 days ago
Iran can target oilfields, pumping stations, depots, docks etc. and it looks like it's really difficult to protect everything from both missiles and drones
dusjanbe | 13 days ago
You know they build pipelines underground right? It took the Saudis a few days to repair theirs.
MrF_lawblog | 13 days ago
Oh I forgot if they are underground they are off limits
wubwubwubwubbins | 13 days ago
It's almost like human beings are intelligent and can adapt concepts to different circumstances...
If proactively building defense into their infrastructure is the new norm for the UAE, you can then build to protect against the main weapons of today (Shahed drones). But then Iran, if they want to destroy said infrastructure, will then just build new weapons that counteract building underground infrastructure.
One of the best ways to defend against this is to just make infrastructure incredibly cheap/efficient to easily repair.
yadaredyadadit | 14 days ago
UAE will always be a target going forward. They might as well move right next to Isreal
indconquistador | 13 days ago
anither reason to invest masively in defence
yadaredyadadit | 13 days ago
Yeah...but who will fight for UAE ? Bangalis, Indian s and Filipinos?
indconquistador | 13 days ago
You dont need superior manpower, you need superior militafy technology adn weapons. This is not thr 1500's
yadaredyadadit | 12 days ago
So basically pay US and Israel to defend UAE ?
damian2000 | 13 days ago
They’re building a secret army of robot warriors
dusjanbe | 13 days ago
Western military contractors, Indians, Pakistanis, Israeli and so on. They pay is really good.
DameLasNalgas | 13 days ago
They deported all the Pakistanis and they would never fight for UAE.
indconquistador | 13 days ago
no they didnt, 10.1% of the uae population is pakistani.
yadaredyadadit | 13 days ago
Pakis are with Saudis . UAE might use Indians:)
poincares_cook | 13 days ago
And so will be Iran. So far Iran has not come out ahead in the exchange
zanzara1968 | 13 days ago
Iran doesn't have to come out ahead, only to inflict more pain than his enemy are likely to support and their can't support the same pain levenl as Iran does.
yadaredyadadit | 13 days ago
There is no winner but US definitely losing friends in Europe.
loaferuk123 | 14 days ago
If this was the only thing happening, you would be right, but it is reasonable to expect multiple initiatives like this from multiple countries which will all add up.
OddlyFactual1512 | 14 days ago
UAE is the only country geographically situated to bypass the strait. Saudi Arabia could build pipelines to the Red Sea, but that would be very costly and take many years. Also, they would have to transport all their oil past Yemen, which isn't guaranteed to be any safer than Hormuz.
loaferuk123 | 14 days ago
Saudi Arabia already have pipelines to the Red Sea which can take over half of their daily production.
Moikanyoloko | 13 days ago
But their port infrastructure in the Red Sea is lacking compared to the Persian Gulf, which has bottlenecked attempts to export that way.
loaferuk123 | 13 days ago
Currently.
poincares_cook | 13 days ago
Exactly, the port in Yanbu can only handle 5mbpd out of the 7mbpd of the pipeline capacity. KSA is already working on expanding port capacity, with some of the works finishing this year.
OddlyFactual1512 | 13 days ago
>it is reasonable to expect multiple initiatives like this from multiple countries which will all add up.
That is what I replied to. It is an inaccurate statement. Go ahead, attempt to support what MULTIPLE countries will be able to bypass the strait.
poincares_cook | 13 days ago
Saudi Arabian pipeline is already built to handle 7mil bpd. But the export port at Yanbu can only handle 5mil bpd, and expansion effort is already in progress.
Furthermore, the Kirkuk pipeline in Iraq has a capacity of 0.5mbpd, but it was closed due to political reasons before the war. It has been reopened and being scaled up, with still 0.3mbpd capacity left to increase.
Lastly, there are efforts to move oil via trucks, it's more expensive and limited, but Iraq is running such operation to thr Syrian port in Baniyas already to the tune of 0.15mbpd, similar efforts in UAE would be even more effective due to shorter distances, and are now in the works.
Iran is also trying to boost oil exports through train to Pakistan, some 100k's mbpd more would be returned to market through those means too.
Lastly, there is a general increase in oil production across the world, so the effect of those mbpd would be felt to finish the closing gap.
zanzara1968 | 13 days ago
I heard that last week they sent 2mbpd a day trought the pipeline
wbruce098 | 13 days ago
That’s not what it’s about. It’s about an impact, specifically on UAE’s ability to export even if no one else can.
Of course, if Iran wanted, the pipeline’s endpoint is still not more than a few miles further from Iran so it wouldn’t solve the problem at all; the entire UAE is well within Iranian missile range and easily within rocket range. The southeastern coast of UAE is only about 60 miles from Iran.
doubagilga | 14 days ago
Iran’s “grip” is simply terrorism. Nothing will end it. They can bomb a boat or a pipeline.
EconomistWithaD | 14 days ago
I mean, there ARE ways to end it.
It’s just that those options are largely no longer easily available with “limited intervention”, given how we cluster fucked this entire operation.
Pretend_Handle_7639 | 14 days ago
Everything you don't like is terrorism lmao
Iran exists and will play the game to continue existing. Inflicting the most pain on the US is how they think they can convince Americans to stop attempting regime change and airstrikes
poincares_cook | 13 days ago
Striking random civilians is terrorism, except when Iran does that.
ihavestrings | 14 days ago
Shooting at random ships isn't terrorism /s
ill_be_huckleberry_1 | 14 days ago
Who was it that bombed a school full of children again?
Describing_Donkeys | 14 days ago
Right? Which country decided to assasainate the others leaders and start a bombing campaign in the middle of negotiations, after starting a bombing campaign during the last negotiations?
Iran is not great, but we've made it impossible to claim the moral superiority.
EconomistWithaD | 14 days ago
Uh. Yes, we can claim moral superiority over Iran, even with all of our (increasing under Trump) faults.
BasvanS | 14 days ago
Sure, you can claim anything. Doesn’t make it true though
EconomistWithaD | 14 days ago
Do you understand how they treat LGBTQ, women, non-Muslims, and other groups there?
When’s the last time Trump pulled your internet?
There’s a reason the entire Middle East loathes them and they have had economic sanctions for years.
Edit: read below:
https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-world/2024
BasvanS | 14 days ago
That’s very problematic, but claiming moral superiority for a country that jails citizens without due process and deports them to foreign prisons because of skin color, randomly invades other countries, threatens to invade allies, doesn’t respect election results, pollutes the world and is sending the world into an economic tailspin that is likely to kill millions from famine is a very bold statement. And all this while staging a theocracy that does not think kindly about LBGTQ, women, and people of other religions.
EconomistWithaD | 14 days ago
Find any “freedom index” that has the US equivalent to Iran.
I’ll even take the ones produced by people with 70 IQ. Just one.
Slander? Fucking child, I asked for evidence.
Edit: oh, look, the children are here.
BasvanS | 14 days ago
When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser.
Enjoy your “freedom” while it lasts.
zvexler | 14 days ago
Iran literally does all of those things too
BasvanS | 14 days ago
Where’s the moral superiority then?
Duckbilling2 | 14 days ago
You're not wrong
And nothing justifies that
I am against the tangerine tyrant
Iran did murder 5000 of it's own people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres
Israel needs to stop that shit too.
"Stop killing people
you fucking twats"
poincares_cook | 13 days ago
Iran murdered closet yo 30-40k.
But according to reddit, that's cool too.
indconquistador | 13 days ago
I mean we can end iran lol. The longer this goes one, more countries can be convinced to stop iran
doubagilga | 13 days ago
We can certainly cause the deaths of millions of civilians. I’m not sure the regime would care. They’d hide in a mountain and launch random rockets until they all died.
poincares_cook | 13 days ago
It's 1.8-1.9BPD in 7 months out of 8mil bpd missing now is 25%, that is massive.
EconomistWithaD | 13 days ago
20-21 MBD went through Hormuz
CertainCertainties | 14 days ago
The editor's note at the end was funny.
The article was too factual, so the editor had to add a dollop of pro-Trump propaganda so the readership wouldn't get confused by the sudden appearance of facts.
Infinite-Pomelo-7538 | 14 days ago
The "article" is just a collection of reposted Twitter posts and a short summary paragraph about them.
Is this really the kind of "journalism" that enabled Trump and his goons? I always thought the US had higher standards for real journalism.
This reads more like propaganda, and in every country I know, it would likely be flagged as such.
Ok_Belt2521 | 13 days ago
Townhall is a conservative news org. Thats why it reads as propaganda.
kettal | 14 days ago
the business model is selling subscriptions to right wing partisans
Cold_Specialist_3656 | 14 days ago
Dino juice is a dying industry.
Trump has done more for green energy and China than any anyone in history. Europe and Asia are plotting out a fossil fuel free economy by 2035 built on top of Chinese solar and wind products.
HyperbenCharities | 13 days ago
Thank Dog the Yew Ess will never have a green future; or any.
DramaticSimple4315 | 14 days ago
This seems more to me like a move with interesting geopolitical implications, meaning that the UAE will put on the market as much oil as they wish, and will curry favors with Iran in a good neighbouring policy in order to limit the risks for bad surprises.
Any plan for physical circumvention from Hormuz will take years and billions to have any parctical effect on a world energy market scale. But it fits with the intention agreed between the US, the EU, the middle east and India to create an alternative energy, communication and logistics route between all those blocs to put aside the strangleholds Russia and Iran have on the region.
averysmallbeing | 14 days ago
They will not be cozying up to Iran, they were the biggest target by Iran, friends with Israel, Israel even lent them golden dome, and they even conducted their own strikes in Iran, likely on behalf of Israel. Their pipeline is a massive target and Iran will do anything to make that happen.
DramaticSimple4315 | 14 days ago
They are a target as long as they maintain their alignment with the US and Saudi Arabia. Leaving OPEC is a blow to the latter.
As for the US, don't underestimate how fluid are things currently in the middle east. They have been proven that the US security guarantee is basically worth peanuts, and have any interest to cozy up further with China, which turns out to be on cordial terms with Iran.
There is space here for further diplomatic manoeuver in the years ahead.
shitposterenthusiast | 14 days ago
Pretty much the opposite is happening. The gulf states are strengthening ties with the US and Israel. Iran blindly attacking everyone in the region has soured opinions on them. Turns out bombing people is a bad way to get them to do what you want. You’d think Iran would have realized that when the US and Israel bombing them achieved the opposite goal.
Timmetie | 14 days ago
> Turns out bombing people is a bad way to get them to do what you want.
Turns out starting a war and then not defending your so-called allies at all is a bad way to get what you want.
The Gulf states didn't want this war, still don't want this war, and are getting blockaded because Israel and the US want this war.
The US straight up abandoned all their bases in the Gulf and basically let Iran do what it wanted.
Prestigious_Load1699 | 14 days ago
A worse way to get what you want is to indiscriminately attack neighboring nations.
The gulf nations want both an end to this conflict and increased ties with America & Israel.
We didn’t attack them and they used our weapons to defend themselves. Iran offers nothing.
Timmetie | 14 days ago
> The gulf nations want both an end to this conflict
This conflict is entirely one-sided. Ofcourse they don't want it they're the ones being cut off, America is fine with the strait of Hormuz closed.
Melonprimo | 14 days ago
not true.
So far only UAE has double down while Saudi, Kuwait, and Qatar have somewhat reach silent agreement not to attack or support the current war of United States and Israel on Iran. Since April, the escalation towards those 3 countries have been non existent and the recent report of retaliation were all attacks carried in March.
Nonetheless, maybe this was part of the ceasefire agreement brokered by Pakistan who is closed with Saudi but it's looking UAE is alone among the GCC right now.
Halbaras | 14 days ago
It will be the opposite. The UAE are the most anti-Iran of the entire GCC, have cosied up with Israel, and demanded the US keep attacking during the kinetic war. They left OPEC partially out of anger with Iran, and the new pipeline is an attempt to cut Iran out of the equation.
It's more likely that if the Strait remains only partially open (with Iran granting access to countries like China, Malaysia, Pakistan, Iraq and eventually ones like Japan and France), the UAE will remain in the shit list and be denied passage or restricted more heavily. People forget that traffic travels in both directions, and the Gulf States are struggling to import enough food currently.
nostrTXB | 13 days ago
The UAE was Iran's second biggest trading partner before the war (second to China), which will of course change moving forward.
Iran thought this war through as much as the US did, which of course is not really well.
LiveLearnCoach | 13 days ago
It’s funny how many people are saying that Iran will target this. Like of course they will if they could. They have been targeting the current pipeline for a while. And failing. 3000 missiles and drones in total, and the UAE blocked over 90% of that, and dealt with what went through.
vonnoor | 13 days ago
Source?
schtickshift | 12 days ago
The longer the Strait stays closed the more likely it becomes that the age of oil dependence reduces prematurely in which case the UAE is facing tough challenges from now on. The same goes for Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. China once again stands to benefit from the chaos as its solar and battery industries continue to crank up to supply the world with clean energy production equipment. It’s not hard to see a near future where oil is used for commercial transportation but not domestic transportation and solar and wind power ever bigger percentages of grids.
guachi01 | 14 days ago
Tadej Pogacar really can do everything. Maybe now Jonas Vingegaard and Paul Seixas stand a chance if Pogacar is in the Gulf instead of France.
DameLasNalgas | 13 days ago
UAE is basically now a satellite state for Israel. That's why they went and setup Iron Dome there. I bet Iran is itching to level UAE once and for all if the war starts again.