January’s producer price index, which is a measure of wholesale inflation, came in hotter than expected at a 0.5% increase for the month. Economists polled by Dow Jones saw the headline reading coming in at 0.3%. Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI recorded a 0.8% gain, much more than the anticipated 0.3% rise economists anticipated.
The next meeting, it's hard to predict the whole year when policies get tossed around and then revoked on a whim. Even in the best of times, predicting the Fed's decisions for an entire year isn't that reliable.
Oh i misread what you wrote got it. I read it as "The only chance of even a .25 cut was at 10%" as in inflation would have to hit 10% and i was thinking that seemed like a biiit too high of a threshold. Your statement makes a lot morse sense now than you for clarifying
At this point, literally every BLS Commissioner of the past 13 years has explicitly said you can still trust the agency. Other multiple Dem-aligned economists (Paul Krugman, Jed Kolko, etc.) have said the same. Not a single economist has identified faked data in any BLS report. And the BLS is clearly still willing to publish higher inflation numbers, terrible jobs figures, and low GDP growth (Q4).
Is there literally no evidence that will dispel you of your conspiracy theory at this point?
I don't think they are intentionally falsifying numbers, but IMO there is something wrong with their methodology when, for instance, jobs numbers are constantly revised down by large amounts.
Job numbers are always revised. There's usually upwards revisions in a boom and downwards revisions if the economy ain't so hot.
And there has been conspiracy theories about this on both the right wing and left wing going back at least 25 years. The problem is just that the estimates tend to be a little conservative and the corrections tend to be in the direction of the trend.
The gold bugs were all freaking out over that kind of thing back in the Greenspan/Bernanke terms.
The Trump appointee that I would've been fine with being nominated for Chair (he's from 1.0 tho) has already said that if the next jobs report looks good, a pause would be fine.
Doesn't matter, he doesn't have enough time to replace the entire board of fed governors. He got one in, he'll get another when Powell's term ends. Two votes ain't enough.
It doesn’t matter what they tell him. Because he can only control his own stooges, which will add up to about three people total. This is not something he’ll have a say in.
The federal reserve is not a dictatorship. The new chair will only get a vote, they don’t get to decide policy. The same voting body will remain in place when he takes the position. I agree this administration is terrible, focus your energy where it’s useful.
There’s 12 voting members all with different expiring term limits, he can’t replace the entire board only the ones whose terms expire. Another poster said he can replace up to two max. It’s rather that you don’t understand how the fed works.
He already fired Lisa Cook. While SCOTUS might overturn this, they allowed him to fire members of other boards. So it's not 100% they will put her back on the board.
What's to stop him from finding reasons to fire the others?
I understand how the fed works under normal presidencies. This is not normal.
> He fired Lisa Cook under suspect circumstances. Tell me how he cannot do it for the rest.
Perhaps not the best example for you to pick, because the courts have so far repeatedly blocked Trump's attempt to remove her and she remains on the board to this day.
I like to think that Trump read a report on climate change that concluded the USA is the hottest country on earth (by actual temperature) and his dementia-addled brain twisted into his new “hottest country” slogan
"has erroneously cited an enormous winter storm that is set to deliver freezing temperatures and heavy snow to half of the US as supposed proof that the world is not heating up due to the burning of fossil fuels.
trump, who has repeatedly questioned and mocked established climate science in the past, posted of the storm on truth social: “Rarely seen anything like it before. Could the Environmental Insurrectionists please explain – WHATEVER HAPPENED TO GLOBAL WARMING???”
I was looking for updated PPI numbers the other day to bolster my argument in another post that firms are absorbing the costs of tariffs. Inflation at the consumer level hasn't been hit that hard because firms are taking the hit at the wholesale level was my hypothesis. Looks like I was right.
I mean you didn't need PPI to tell you this, it's pretty evident in the profit margins from the last 3 quarters of earnings. It's also not a terrible thing. Good management keeps profit margins healthy despite increased cost, and the fact that it hasn't trickled down to consumers yet is a good sign it probably won't in a meaningful way.
Is the inflation increase not being driven by firms beginning to pass through tariff costs? The UK saw similar issue post Brexit as cost increases trickled through for a longer period than the rest of the world saw inflation spike. If it is due to tariff costs then that’s not easily fixed with monetary policy decisions and increasing rates won’t necessarily do anything to bring inflation down.
This is PPI - Producer Price Index. It's the price increase at the manufacturer of goods. I think it's basically the manufacturers are finally running out of materials/inventory and are having to import more materials, which is bringing tariffs into play.
Exactly. And by the same token, if unemployment increases mainly due to automation and enterprise AI, cutting rates will only encourage more capex on automation and AI. But I almost never see anyone talking about whether traditional monetary policy is going to work in the current environment.
Yeah I'd like to see more proof of concept of this in CPI and PCE as while there have been occasional higher numbers on both, it hasn't been consistent and I have my doubts it'll get consistent (cough, layoffs).
Like with February, I think headline CPI is going to be an increase due to energy translating more for that month, maybe if you're looking for inflation to perk up involving core inflation, we see a MoM read of over 0.3.
No, making a knee jerk reaction by raising rates is not warranted. The Fed is not a day trader looking for the next big score, they base decisions on data.
Data right now doesn't look spectacular for the labor market, so raising rates is off the table unless CPI gets well above 3%
That is now two straight months of this. This also included a month in which gas prices plummeted which actually made the numbers look better than they would be otherwise.
The problem is not a recession. The problem is creating too much demand and as a result too much inflation.
They need to raise interest rates. Has absolutely nothing to do with day trading.
Yeah it is how it works. I realize you are being a smartass. The point is the gas prices have done the opposite this month which has a real probability of next months being even higher or even worse.
How much more evidence of economic turmoil resulting from DJT’s ineptitude will be needed to clearly demonstrate unfitness for office? This feels like the Keystone version of Barnum & Bailey’s circus is running the asylum.
Just enough for the economy to collapse as a Democratic administration takes over and has to spend the next four years fixing things. Then just when things are starting to turn around the voters get impatient and vote Republicans back in again.
The deficient has always gone up under republicans this century... GTFO with the "Dems are the ones who spend". $75 Billion dollars for fucking ICE... Fucking wars all over the middle east, we're gonna be in another one today....
The S&P year to date is up only .2 up. A good high yield savings account gives you about 4%APR. That's would be about .66% for the last 2 months, and it's safe. When investors think that regular bank accounts are better than the stock market that's when they pull out.
Watching CNBC and we're at the stage where the hosts and guests are yelling at the camera that there is nothing to worry about, and people need to just shut the fuck up and stop selling. Cue Leslie Nielsen gif of "Nothing to see here"
Text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text
Help me out... Is this a stagflation warning? We have virtually zero job creation. We have imminent layoffs and perhaps a fundamental shift of the economy looming because of AI and wholesale prices are skyrocketing....
A hot wholesale print pushes rate expectations higher and tightens financial conditions quickly. When inflation surprises to the upside, duration-sensitive tech feels it first. The bigger issue is whether this shifts the policy path or just delays easing.
[OP] PurpleReign123 | 8 hours ago
Donnie,
“Hottest country in the world?”
Or
Country with the hottest inflation?
January’s producer price index, which is a measure of wholesale inflation, came in hotter than expected at a 0.5% increase for the month. Economists polled by Dow Jones saw the headline reading coming in at 0.3%. Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI recorded a 0.8% gain, much more than the anticipated 0.3% rise economists anticipated.
Cilantro_Larry | 8 hours ago
Wow this is much higher than I anticipated. There’s just no way the Fed can cut now.
OrangeJr36 | 8 hours ago
The chance of even a .25 cut was at something like 10%.
The Fed has expected a possible read like this far more than the market has. This doesn't change their thinking, it just confirms it.
avaslash | 7 hours ago
10% in a month or over the year?
OrangeJr36 | 7 hours ago
The next meeting, it's hard to predict the whole year when policies get tossed around and then revoked on a whim. Even in the best of times, predicting the Fed's decisions for an entire year isn't that reliable.
avaslash | 4 hours ago
Oh i misread what you wrote got it. I read it as "The only chance of even a .25 cut was at 10%" as in inflation would have to hit 10% and i was thinking that seemed like a biiit too high of a threshold. Your statement makes a lot morse sense now than you for clarifying
OrangeJr36 | 4 hours ago
Oh, if we had a reading of 10% on CPI or PPI it's time to get Volcker out of his tomb and jack rates up to 20%
Homeless-Coward-2143 | 8 hours ago
And these are the fake numbers. Jesus.
zynamiqw | 6 hours ago
Honest question:
At this point, literally every BLS Commissioner of the past 13 years has explicitly said you can still trust the agency. Other multiple Dem-aligned economists (Paul Krugman, Jed Kolko, etc.) have said the same. Not a single economist has identified faked data in any BLS report. And the BLS is clearly still willing to publish higher inflation numbers, terrible jobs figures, and low GDP growth (Q4).
Is there literally no evidence that will dispel you of your conspiracy theory at this point?
Bossanova12345 | 6 hours ago
Never. This is Reddit.
Russian_Bot1337 | 2 hours ago
I don't think they are intentionally falsifying numbers, but IMO there is something wrong with their methodology when, for instance, jobs numbers are constantly revised down by large amounts.
Word1_Word2_4Numbers | 2 hours ago
Job numbers are always revised. There's usually upwards revisions in a boom and downwards revisions if the economy ain't so hot.
And there has been conspiracy theories about this on both the right wing and left wing going back at least 25 years. The problem is just that the estimates tend to be a little conservative and the corrections tend to be in the direction of the trend.
The gold bugs were all freaking out over that kind of thing back in the Greenspan/Bernanke terms.
Russian_Bot1337 | 2 hours ago
My question is if they are always revised anyways why not just wait until they can get the numbers as accurate as possible?
Homeless-Coward-2143 | 3 hours ago
It's not a conspiracy theory and no, fake data would not dispel the fact that they are faking the data.
Bossanova12345 | 6 hours ago
What makes you think these are fake?
SwindlingAccountant | 2 hours ago
I wouldn't say they are fake but they are using a lot more estimates compared to previous admins thanks to DOGE cuts and other moves.
Icy-Map9410 | 13 minutes ago
No, they’re not.
ngfldar | 8 hours ago
You don't think they'll push through cuts anyway?
95Daphne | 8 hours ago
If jobs continue to look fine overall, then no.
The Trump appointee that I would've been fine with being nominated for Chair (he's from 1.0 tho) has already said that if the next jobs report looks good, a pause would be fine.
ngfldar | 8 hours ago
I understand (and agree with) the economic theory behind what you're saying. I'm just asking if you think *this* administration will care about that.
Trump has been pretty clear that he wants interest rate cuts, and he only hires sycophants. Do you think any of them will dare to tell him "no"?
Quercusa1ba | 8 hours ago
Doesn't matter, he doesn't have enough time to replace the entire board of fed governors. He got one in, he'll get another when Powell's term ends. Two votes ain't enough.
Icy-Map9410 | 7 minutes ago
🎯🎯🎯🎯
95Daphne | 8 hours ago
And I am telling you that he is going to have a hard time getting "what he wants" if one of his appointments from 2020 is starting to waver.
Heck, the guy that's supposed to be a mouthpiece for him as a temp appointee was supposedly starting to say more hawkish things.
ngfldar | 8 hours ago
I guess we'll see.
Icy-Map9410 | 7 minutes ago
It doesn’t matter what they tell him. Because he can only control his own stooges, which will add up to about three people total. This is not something he’ll have a say in.
Icy-Map9410 | 8 minutes ago
The new Fed governor has one vote, he can’t push anything through.
themage78 | 8 hours ago
Until he fires Powell and hires his stooge for the Fed Chair. Then it's negative interest rates.
Canuck-overseas | 8 hours ago
Ah yes, the Turkey-ication of the USA.
Feisty-Barracuda5452 | 7 hours ago
Can't wait for the high teen unemployment numbers...
walkingthecowww | 6 hours ago
That’s not how the federal reserve works.
themage78 | 6 hours ago
Wake up. Of course that's not how it works, but the only thing impeding his power is SCOTUS, and they barely put up a fight.
walkingthecowww | 6 hours ago
The federal reserve is not a dictatorship. The new chair will only get a vote, they don’t get to decide policy. The same voting body will remain in place when he takes the position. I agree this administration is terrible, focus your energy where it’s useful.
themage78 | 6 hours ago
There was 3 votes asking to cut rates more the last vote.
He's going to replace the entire body once he gets a chance.
Waving it away and say focus on something else doesn't help either.
Trapezuntine | 6 hours ago
There’s 12 voting members all with different expiring term limits, he can’t replace the entire board only the ones whose terms expire. Another poster said he can replace up to two max. It’s rather that you don’t understand how the fed works.
themage78 | 5 hours ago
He already fired Lisa Cook. While SCOTUS might overturn this, they allowed him to fire members of other boards. So it's not 100% they will put her back on the board.
What's to stop him from finding reasons to fire the others?
I understand how the fed works under normal presidencies. This is not normal.
https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/01/supreme-court-appears-inclined-to-prevent-trump-from-firing-fed-governor/
zynamiqw | 6 hours ago
>He's going to replace the entire body once he gets a chance.
I think you should explain the exact mechanism by which you think this would be possible, and why it has not occurred already.
themage78 | 5 hours ago
He fired Lisa Cook under suspect circumstances. Tell me how he cannot do it for the rest.
Also has fired members of the National Labor Relations Board, Consumer Product Safety Commission, and the Merit Systems Protection Board.
zynamiqw | 5 hours ago
> He fired Lisa Cook under suspect circumstances. Tell me how he cannot do it for the rest.
Perhaps not the best example for you to pick, because the courts have so far repeatedly blocked Trump's attempt to remove her and she remains on the board to this day.
Kinda answered your own question there, champ.
hippydipster | 7 hours ago
What other way out is there of fiscal dominance other than inflation?
Possible_Bee_4140 | 8 hours ago
Well, well, well…if it isn’t ”everything people have been saying was gonna happen.”
Personal-Walrus-3682 | 8 hours ago
You mean tariffs cause stagflation? No way.
Yeah, learned that in econ 101.
Fcuked4life | 7 hours ago
Each explanation of how they were supposed to work in theory came across almost exactly like the South Park - Underpants Gnomes business model.
rocketblue11 | 3 hours ago
I learned that in Ferris Bueller's Day Off.
Bossanova12345 | 6 hours ago
Inflation is quite a bit cooler than 3 years ago, and not too dissimilar to Canada, UK etc.
Just_Candle_315 | 8 hours ago
"THE DOW IS AT 50000 DOLLARS"
And then it immediately started collapsing. Like King Midas in reverse.
Feisty-Barracuda5452 | 7 hours ago
ETTD
martin | 6 hours ago
Such a great book. Wilson really had him dead to rights.
the-hostile-tomato | 8 hours ago
I like to think that Trump read a report on climate change that concluded the USA is the hottest country on earth (by actual temperature) and his dementia-addled brain twisted into his new “hottest country” slogan
National-Charity-435 | 6 hours ago
"has erroneously cited an enormous winter storm that is set to deliver freezing temperatures and heavy snow to half of the US as supposed proof that the world is not heating up due to the burning of fossil fuels.
trump, who has repeatedly questioned and mocked established climate science in the past, posted of the storm on truth social: “Rarely seen anything like it before. Could the Environmental Insurrectionists please explain – WHATEVER HAPPENED TO GLOBAL WARMING???”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/23/trump-winter-storm-climate-crisis
British_Rover | 7 hours ago
I was looking for updated PPI numbers the other day to bolster my argument in another post that firms are absorbing the costs of tariffs. Inflation at the consumer level hasn't been hit that hard because firms are taking the hit at the wholesale level was my hypothesis. Looks like I was right.
ImmortalPoseidon | 7 hours ago
I mean you didn't need PPI to tell you this, it's pretty evident in the profit margins from the last 3 quarters of earnings. It's also not a terrible thing. Good management keeps profit margins healthy despite increased cost, and the fact that it hasn't trickled down to consumers yet is a good sign it probably won't in a meaningful way.
makemeking706 | 8 hours ago
He made billions. Of course he is loving it.
gwenver | 6 hours ago
Yes, but the price of eggs is down so we're all good...
Bossanova12345 | 6 hours ago
UK 3% Canada 2.3% Australia 3.8% US 2.4%
Pretty similar to Canada, really.
Better than UK or Australia.
[OP] PurpleReign123 | 6 hours ago
USA 2.4%, buddy?
That’s so last-month. Look forward.
zynamiqw | 6 hours ago
This thread is literally about last month's wholesale numbers.
You posted it...
[OP] PurpleReign123 | 5 hours ago
2.4% is last month’s CPI!
PPI eventually leads to CPI …
zynamiqw | 5 hours ago
You realise how ridiculous it looks to post January data, then criticise someone for discussing other January data?
[OP] PurpleReign123 | 5 hours ago
If you think the US is going to continue to register CPI of c. 2.4% in the coming months, I cannot help you.
I can only suggest you read more as to how PPI eventually impacts CPI and PCE.
zynamiqw | 5 hours ago
>If you think the US is going to continue to register CPI of c. 2.4% in the coming months, I cannot help you.
You don't need to make up things I haven't said or implied.
I'm just pointing out how hypocritical it is for you to call someone out for discussing last month's data, when you're posting last month's data too.
Logical-Boss8158 | 7 hours ago
US inflation is still much lower than other developed nations. Why are you lying?
devliegende | 7 hours ago
Not true
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-25022026-ap
Usual-Appearance-452 | 7 hours ago
Yeah but what if we excluded all those countries and just looked at Romania /s
Ashamed-Reaction-548 | 7 hours ago
The comments here have me scratching my head. We have people talking about pausing rate cuts. Pausing? They should be raising interest rates. WTF
Contren | 7 hours ago
Yeah, inflation racing back towards 4% should have the Fed thinking of raising rates for sure.
Moist1981 | 7 hours ago
Is the inflation increase not being driven by firms beginning to pass through tariff costs? The UK saw similar issue post Brexit as cost increases trickled through for a longer period than the rest of the world saw inflation spike. If it is due to tariff costs then that’s not easily fixed with monetary policy decisions and increasing rates won’t necessarily do anything to bring inflation down.
AbletonUser333 | 6 hours ago
This is PPI - Producer Price Index. It's the price increase at the manufacturer of goods. I think it's basically the manufacturers are finally running out of materials/inventory and are having to import more materials, which is bringing tariffs into play.
sizzlingthumb | 6 hours ago
Exactly. And by the same token, if unemployment increases mainly due to automation and enterprise AI, cutting rates will only encourage more capex on automation and AI. But I almost never see anyone talking about whether traditional monetary policy is going to work in the current environment.
Bossanova12345 | 6 hours ago
Racing back to 4?
Dude it’s 2.4% it hasn’t been above 4% since the Biden administration.
dispatch00 | 7 hours ago
Indeed. But then again we elected a felonius rapist so...
Barnyard_Rich | 7 hours ago
That's how narratives shift. The narrative was too bullish on cuts, now it's shifting to holds, and then the conversation really starts on raising.
It'll take months of data like this to move the narrative to raising rates.
95Daphne | 6 hours ago
Yeah I'd like to see more proof of concept of this in CPI and PCE as while there have been occasional higher numbers on both, it hasn't been consistent and I have my doubts it'll get consistent (cough, layoffs).
Like with February, I think headline CPI is going to be an increase due to energy translating more for that month, maybe if you're looking for inflation to perk up involving core inflation, we see a MoM read of over 0.3.
OrangeJr36 | 7 hours ago
No, making a knee jerk reaction by raising rates is not warranted. The Fed is not a day trader looking for the next big score, they base decisions on data.
Data right now doesn't look spectacular for the labor market, so raising rates is off the table unless CPI gets well above 3%
Ashamed-Reaction-548 | 7 hours ago
That is now two straight months of this. This also included a month in which gas prices plummeted which actually made the numbers look better than they would be otherwise.
The problem is not a recession. The problem is creating too much demand and as a result too much inflation.
They need to raise interest rates. Has absolutely nothing to do with day trading.
zynamiqw | 6 hours ago
>This also included a month in which gas prices plummeted which actually made the numbers look better than they would be otherwise.
... yep, that's how numbers work...
Ashamed-Reaction-548 | 6 hours ago
Yeah it is how it works. I realize you are being a smartass. The point is the gas prices have done the opposite this month which has a real probability of next months being even higher or even worse.
Arcturus_Nova | 7 hours ago
How much more evidence of economic turmoil resulting from DJT’s ineptitude will be needed to clearly demonstrate unfitness for office? This feels like the Keystone version of Barnum & Bailey’s circus is running the asylum.
British_Rover | 6 hours ago
Just enough for the economy to collapse as a Democratic administration takes over and has to spend the next four years fixing things. Then just when things are starting to turn around the voters get impatient and vote Republicans back in again.
The cycle repeats.
boston_617617 | 4 hours ago
How is more spending going to help with inflation?
NeuroLeak | 4 hours ago
The deficient has always gone up under republicans this century... GTFO with the "Dems are the ones who spend". $75 Billion dollars for fucking ICE... Fucking wars all over the middle east, we're gonna be in another one today....
thomasrat1 | 2 hours ago
The last two democrats started their admin during a crisis. Obama was the gfc, and Biden was covid.
The deficit decreased as time continued with them.
Icy-Map9410 | 45 minutes ago
It’s not.
Snoo-85072 | 7 hours ago
2.5 years, I think.
Reduntu | 6 hours ago
Unemployment is the only economic metric that matters unless inflation increases at least a couple percent.
ImmortalPoseidon | 7 hours ago
This is economic turmoil? Genuinely asking. Do you think this is an economy that is in true turmoil?
moyismoy | 5 hours ago
The S&P year to date is up only .2 up. A good high yield savings account gives you about 4%APR. That's would be about .66% for the last 2 months, and it's safe. When investors think that regular bank accounts are better than the stock market that's when they pull out.
Fuddle | 7 hours ago
Watching CNBC and we're at the stage where the hosts and guests are yelling at the camera that there is nothing to worry about, and people need to just shut the fuck up and stop selling. Cue Leslie Nielsen gif of "Nothing to see here"
Text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text text
PetriDishCocktail | 5 hours ago
Help me out... Is this a stagflation warning? We have virtually zero job creation. We have imminent layoffs and perhaps a fundamental shift of the economy looming because of AI and wholesale prices are skyrocketing....
ORei29987 | 4 hours ago
A hot wholesale print pushes rate expectations higher and tightens financial conditions quickly. When inflation surprises to the upside, duration-sensitive tech feels it first. The bigger issue is whether this shifts the policy path or just delays easing.