This is important because if 60% of CEOs think there will be a recession then that leads to at least 60% of CEOs slowing down or freezing hiring.
In addition, at a consumer level, based on UMICH survey results, ~60% of consumers think econ conditions will be worse - that means all of those consumers will be pulling back spending as well.
Exactly. Belief there will be a recession can cause a recession.
The trade war, no matter how quickly Trump folds or how much he postpones or exempts, cause people to be more cautious and careful in the future.
At best, there is a spike from people trying to to outrun the tariffs, but business have already done that and consumers don't really do it as much. Once that's over, it's businesses and people cutting back and being careful with their spending to help weather the coming storm.
If Trump really wants to stabilize the economy at this point then the tariff madness needs to end. Pick a tariff rate and keep it there or just go back to the old rates just several months ago. Also, just consider the government firing frenzy as accomplished and let the federal government return to normal for a while.
Even if he does back to the old rates, the damage is done and our trade partners are going to be hesitant, or downright against testing the US as a partner for a very long time. Good reason too, as long as a large chunk of the population continues to be fervent cult members.
There was a survey a couple of weeks ago of CFOs where likewise 60% said they expect a recession later this year and an additional 15% said they expect one early next year. So yeah, with those kind of numbers it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone expect a downturn, so everyone cuts spending, which brings about a downturn.
Not sure which one you're referring to, there's a lot of sorta bullshit "CEO/CFO Surveys" out there that have extremely suspect data sets. The one that's respected in the econ/financial community is the richmond Fed/Duke survey: https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/cfo_survey/data_and_results/2025/20250326_data_and_results
Optimism sat at 60% before the election, spiked hard after, and is now back down to 62%. Obviously there's some significant political bias driving that spike (as there is with every sentiment survey), but it is interesting how quickly the optimism has evaporated.
The problem with all of these surveys is that most are a bit of a black box with regard to the data set, and most do that to obfuscate the reality that they generally aren't getting great participation from the fortune 500 crowd (think about it, if you're a CEO of like CocaCola or Fedex are you doing 5 surveys a month on sentiment?).
For instance the survey referred to in the CNBC article is one published by "ChiefExecutive.net". You can read the actual primary source here. (again with this sub being allergic to primary sourcing). The telling part is that all of the execs they name as respondents are smaller scale local/regional entities. That's not necessarily bad in aggregate, but like the CEO of a cleaning products vendor in Sun Prairie Wisconsin isn't necessarily a valuable data point for most.
The Richmond Fed/Duke one is the only one I pay attention to. None of em are perfect, but that one generally is regarded to have the most true large cap executive participation.
> all of those consumers will be pulling back spending
This is the one the billionaires are having trouble talking their way out of. They've been spouting a lot of calming, encouraging hot air, but people are going to tighten their pursestrings. It's one of our first, primal responses to uncertain times.
The billionaires are openly celebrating mass layoffs of the federal workforce and it's scaring a lot of their customers.
I’ve already made and continue my massive reduction of anything I don’t need. That involves not going to Walmart or Target. I still shop online as little as possible. I’m not buying one single item I don’t need. Including clothes and shoes. Need a new mattress. But I am not buying one. Going out to eat will be extremely limited. Gift giving very limited. And if I can think of anything else, it goes on the list. Have I forgotten anything?
If we experience inflation and people buy less things but end up spending the same amount of dollars, that doesn't decrease GDP much, right? If that's the case, I worry the metrics will show a slight drop in GDP backdropped against high inflation and the narrative will be that we didn't have as big a drop in GDP as everyone's expecting.
We saw this same phenomenon in 2022 though. While dangerously strong GDP growth helped, the preparation by damn near all sectors likely helped avoid a recession by not allowing things to get too far out of control from an over investment standpoint.
If we do not have a credit crunch we will not have a recession assuming major tariffs do not stick. Unemployment is too low and consumer/corporate balance sheets are too healthy for a bust. It’s more likely we just have very slight growth for a number of months until confidence and conditions improve.
>“I think we're very close, if not in, a recession now,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."
Really, that's alarming, and Fink's perspective just shows the need for a cautious, realistic outlook, especially considering that even with some brighter spots, profit growth isn't keeping pace, a major worry.
It's truly disheartening, I mean, really concerning, that so many CEOs are now predicting a recession, especially considering that just a few months ago, a staggering 76% of them were optimistic about their companies' profits, indicating a clear shift in the economic outlook and showing the need for policies that prioritize stable trade and working families, something we all need.
I think this drastic of a shift is more illustrative of how poorly versed the C-suite is in geopolitics. The level of disinformation is so high that 76% (your number) of economic leaders with dedicated support teams and nigh-unlimited resources still failed to see what was coming, and quite frankly, it was completely obvious to anyone paying attention.
> The level of disinformation is so high that 76% (your number) of economic leaders with dedicated support teams and nigh-unlimited resources still failed to see what was coming
I mean, in fairness we have already had Trump as a president and he definitely didn't do anything remotely like this.
I don't think it's hard to conceptualize that most people were basing their expectations off their experience, and the experience was a mostly bumbling administration full of divisive rhetoric and destructive tendencies toward various progressive initiatives, but very little in terms of policy that was immediately detrimental to the overall economy.
Trump this time around is a significant departure in terms of aggressiveness from even his most efficient days in his first term.
The targeted steel tariffs? Yes. Do you remember markets reaction? Fairly mild. Do you know why? Because their net impact to the US economy was fairly mild.
Bad policy? for sure. equivalent to blanket tariffs on every country? No.
I don't understand what you're taking issue with. You found it absurd that people didn't expect his trade policy to be this bad, I am noting that most people were likely basing that on experience from his first term. IDK if you're really young and weren't paying attention then or what, but that shouldn't be something you're getting this worked up over lol.
I find it absurd that it's so hard for you to comprehend that this is a major departure from first term policy, which is surprising for many. It's just not that complex of a thought my man, and certainly not something you need to go acting like an ass to others about.
His behavior at the beginning of his second term is commensurate if not worsened from the end of his first term, which was not acceptable then or now. For you to throw your hands up and plead ignorance is the highest level of stupidity
This seems to be the case. I'm expecting more red days in the market as wealthy people start to see outside of their bubble and see the reality of American businesses struggling to compete in the global market as political isolation occurs.
I mean, I looked at project 2025, did they not? This is the doing of the man they elected. This is what the other candidate warned us about, but because she’s brown and a woman, they didn’t listen
What's really surprising to me about this is that apparently close to 40% of American companies are led by delusional and/or economically illiterate morons.
All you have to do to conclude that we're barreling face first into a recession is pay even the slightest bit of attention to economics and finance news.
I'd bet they're just hardcore trumpets who will say 2+2=5 if party line demands it. They also know a depression is coming they just absolutely won't be honest about it.
If indeed, the government certifies that a recession is underway, and I would expect the monster in the White House to clamp down on that, it will mean that from this fall on the voters in the midterms will have recession and low consumer confidence and layoffs on their mind. It’s the economy, stupid, And the Trump party should pay a price at the polls.
Just a point of clarity, the entity that tracks contractions/expansions is not part of the government. NBER is an independent economic entity that's tasked with many of these goals, but is not subject to government interference.
All this tariff BS is completely AVOIDABLE and UNNECESSARY!! We are destroying every relationship throughout the world and crashing our economy at the same time! This is NOT the 1940’s anymore and we are in a global environment…. We need to learn to adapt
fanofpotatoes | 7 months ago
This is important because if 60% of CEOs think there will be a recession then that leads to at least 60% of CEOs slowing down or freezing hiring.
In addition, at a consumer level, based on UMICH survey results, ~60% of consumers think econ conditions will be worse - that means all of those consumers will be pulling back spending as well.
I don't see how GDP doesn't drop significantly.
ZerexTheCool | 7 months ago
Exactly. Belief there will be a recession can cause a recession.
The trade war, no matter how quickly Trump folds or how much he postpones or exempts, cause people to be more cautious and careful in the future.
At best, there is a spike from people trying to to outrun the tariffs, but business have already done that and consumers don't really do it as much. Once that's over, it's businesses and people cutting back and being careful with their spending to help weather the coming storm.
nmgsypsnmamtfnmdzps | 7 months ago
If Trump really wants to stabilize the economy at this point then the tariff madness needs to end. Pick a tariff rate and keep it there or just go back to the old rates just several months ago. Also, just consider the government firing frenzy as accomplished and let the federal government return to normal for a while.
Venutianspring | 7 months ago
Even if he does back to the old rates, the damage is done and our trade partners are going to be hesitant, or downright against testing the US as a partner for a very long time. Good reason too, as long as a large chunk of the population continues to be fervent cult members.
vanalla | 7 months ago
perhaps the US Government should honour the trade agreements they themselves negotiated.
CremedelaSmegma | 7 months ago
Our CEO’s, and those of our peers started that late Q4 2024.
They went full bunker mode in January to control costs.
If you work at a company that employs people making real things likely something similar is happening or started even before tariffs.
I can’t speak for the services sectors. They may be lagging a bit in their response function.
Manufacturing though? Trying to predict demand into and past 2025 was cloudy as hell and that was making them cautious at the very least.
FuguSandwich | 7 months ago
There was a survey a couple of weeks ago of CFOs where likewise 60% said they expect a recession later this year and an additional 15% said they expect one early next year. So yeah, with those kind of numbers it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone expect a downturn, so everyone cuts spending, which brings about a downturn.
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 7 months ago
Not sure which one you're referring to, there's a lot of sorta bullshit "CEO/CFO Surveys" out there that have extremely suspect data sets. The one that's respected in the econ/financial community is the richmond Fed/Duke survey: https://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/cfo_survey/data_and_results/2025/20250326_data_and_results
Optimism sat at 60% before the election, spiked hard after, and is now back down to 62%. Obviously there's some significant political bias driving that spike (as there is with every sentiment survey), but it is interesting how quickly the optimism has evaporated.
The problem with all of these surveys is that most are a bit of a black box with regard to the data set, and most do that to obfuscate the reality that they generally aren't getting great participation from the fortune 500 crowd (think about it, if you're a CEO of like CocaCola or Fedex are you doing 5 surveys a month on sentiment?).
For instance the survey referred to in the CNBC article is one published by "ChiefExecutive.net". You can read the actual primary source here. (again with this sub being allergic to primary sourcing). The telling part is that all of the execs they name as respondents are smaller scale local/regional entities. That's not necessarily bad in aggregate, but like the CEO of a cleaning products vendor in Sun Prairie Wisconsin isn't necessarily a valuable data point for most.
The Richmond Fed/Duke one is the only one I pay attention to. None of em are perfect, but that one generally is regarded to have the most true large cap executive participation.
FuguSandwich | 7 months ago
This is the one I was referencing:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/25/recession-is-coming-pessimistic-corporate-cfos-say-cnbc-survey.html
So actually the same source as the new CEO survey. And yeah, it appears n=20 so not exactly a huge sample.
makebbq_notwar | 7 months ago
Not just hiring, capex spending is also being put on hold.
rafikiknowsdeway1 | 7 months ago
I would assume this becomes self fulfilling at that point, no?
Uellerstone | 7 months ago
All going according to plan
SidewaysFancyPrance | 7 months ago
> all of those consumers will be pulling back spending
This is the one the billionaires are having trouble talking their way out of. They've been spouting a lot of calming, encouraging hot air, but people are going to tighten their pursestrings. It's one of our first, primal responses to uncertain times.
The billionaires are openly celebrating mass layoffs of the federal workforce and it's scaring a lot of their customers.
Capable-Pollution-29 | 7 months ago
I’ve already made and continue my massive reduction of anything I don’t need. That involves not going to Walmart or Target. I still shop online as little as possible. I’m not buying one single item I don’t need. Including clothes and shoes. Need a new mattress. But I am not buying one. Going out to eat will be extremely limited. Gift giving very limited. And if I can think of anything else, it goes on the list. Have I forgotten anything?
twittalessrudy | 7 months ago
If we experience inflation and people buy less things but end up spending the same amount of dollars, that doesn't decrease GDP much, right? If that's the case, I worry the metrics will show a slight drop in GDP backdropped against high inflation and the narrative will be that we didn't have as big a drop in GDP as everyone's expecting.
devliegende | 7 months ago
GDP is adjusted for inflation. Thus if people spend the same in nominal terms while inflation is high, GDP will go down.
twittalessrudy | 7 months ago
Thanks!
belovedkid | 7 months ago
We saw this same phenomenon in 2022 though. While dangerously strong GDP growth helped, the preparation by damn near all sectors likely helped avoid a recession by not allowing things to get too far out of control from an over investment standpoint.
If we do not have a credit crunch we will not have a recession assuming major tariffs do not stick. Unemployment is too low and consumer/corporate balance sheets are too healthy for a bust. It’s more likely we just have very slight growth for a number of months until confidence and conditions improve.
Tremenda-Carucha | 7 months ago
>“I think we're very close, if not in, a recession now,” BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."
Really, that's alarming, and Fink's perspective just shows the need for a cautious, realistic outlook, especially considering that even with some brighter spots, profit growth isn't keeping pace, a major worry.
belovedkid | 7 months ago
Fink is trying to get Trump to back off. We aren’t in a recession. Credit spreads are not even remotely pricing in a recession.
sifl1202 | 7 months ago
we are though
avid-learner-bot | 7 months ago
It's truly disheartening, I mean, really concerning, that so many CEOs are now predicting a recession, especially considering that just a few months ago, a staggering 76% of them were optimistic about their companies' profits, indicating a clear shift in the economic outlook and showing the need for policies that prioritize stable trade and working families, something we all need.
PracticableSolution | 7 months ago
I think this drastic of a shift is more illustrative of how poorly versed the C-suite is in geopolitics. The level of disinformation is so high that 76% (your number) of economic leaders with dedicated support teams and nigh-unlimited resources still failed to see what was coming, and quite frankly, it was completely obvious to anyone paying attention.
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 7 months ago
> The level of disinformation is so high that 76% (your number) of economic leaders with dedicated support teams and nigh-unlimited resources still failed to see what was coming
I mean, in fairness we have already had Trump as a president and he definitely didn't do anything remotely like this.
I don't think it's hard to conceptualize that most people were basing their expectations off their experience, and the experience was a mostly bumbling administration full of divisive rhetoric and destructive tendencies toward various progressive initiatives, but very little in terms of policy that was immediately detrimental to the overall economy.
Trump this time around is a significant departure in terms of aggressiveness from even his most efficient days in his first term.
PracticableSolution | 7 months ago
There literally was a plan
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 7 months ago
IDK why that's at odds with the idea that many people based their expectations on experience.
PracticableSolution | 7 months ago
Ffs, were you awake for the last round?
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 7 months ago
The targeted steel tariffs? Yes. Do you remember markets reaction? Fairly mild. Do you know why? Because their net impact to the US economy was fairly mild.
Bad policy? for sure. equivalent to blanket tariffs on every country? No.
I don't understand what you're taking issue with. You found it absurd that people didn't expect his trade policy to be this bad, I am noting that most people were likely basing that on experience from his first term. IDK if you're really young and weren't paying attention then or what, but that shouldn't be something you're getting this worked up over lol.
PracticableSolution | 7 months ago
I find it absurd that anyone would think an insane person would act sanely.
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 7 months ago
I find it absurd that it's so hard for you to comprehend that this is a major departure from first term policy, which is surprising for many. It's just not that complex of a thought my man, and certainly not something you need to go acting like an ass to others about.
PracticableSolution | 7 months ago
His behavior at the beginning of his second term is commensurate if not worsened from the end of his first term, which was not acceptable then or now. For you to throw your hands up and plead ignorance is the highest level of stupidity
Matt2_ASC | 7 months ago
This seems to be the case. I'm expecting more red days in the market as wealthy people start to see outside of their bubble and see the reality of American businesses struggling to compete in the global market as political isolation occurs.
ApolloRubySky | 7 months ago
I mean, I looked at project 2025, did they not? This is the doing of the man they elected. This is what the other candidate warned us about, but because she’s brown and a woman, they didn’t listen
Ahstruck | 7 months ago
>More than 60% of CEOs expect a recession in the next 6 months as tariff turmoil grows
Are these the same CEOs that thought Trump was good for business?
VonDukez | 7 months ago
Yes
Xeynon | 7 months ago
What's really surprising to me about this is that apparently close to 40% of American companies are led by delusional and/or economically illiterate morons.
All you have to do to conclude that we're barreling face first into a recession is pay even the slightest bit of attention to economics and finance news.
DataCassette | 7 months ago
I'd bet they're just hardcore trumpets who will say 2+2=5 if party line demands it. They also know a depression is coming they just absolutely won't be honest about it.
Xeynon | 7 months ago
> hardcore trumpets who will say 2+2=5 if party line demands it
> delusional and/or economically illiterate morons
You say po-tay-to, I say po-tah-to.
moreesq | 7 months ago
If indeed, the government certifies that a recession is underway, and I would expect the monster in the White House to clamp down on that, it will mean that from this fall on the voters in the midterms will have recession and low consumer confidence and layoffs on their mind. It’s the economy, stupid, And the Trump party should pay a price at the polls.
RIP_Soulja_Slim | 7 months ago
Just a point of clarity, the entity that tracks contractions/expansions is not part of the government. NBER is an independent economic entity that's tasked with many of these goals, but is not subject to government interference.
HarryPyhole | 7 months ago
> is not subject to government interference.
Just another guardrail yet to be dismantled.
BigShaker1177 | 7 months ago
All this tariff BS is completely AVOIDABLE and UNNECESSARY!! We are destroying every relationship throughout the world and crashing our economy at the same time! This is NOT the 1940’s anymore and we are in a global environment…. We need to learn to adapt