Inflation rate projected to hit 6% in the second quarter, top economic forecasters say

1772 points by Due_Willingness_3277 13 hours ago on reddit | 86 comments

Konukaame | 12 hours ago

>Consumer price inflation is projected to hit 6% for the first quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters, a blue-ribbon group that is polled each quarter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

First quarter (article) or second quarter (headline)?

And I'd love to know what magic wand they see getting waved to justify this:

>Elevated inflation levels are expected to persist into the third quarter, with headline CPI projected at 3% and core at 2.9%. Both levels are expected to ease by the end of the year, with the fourth quarter at 2.5% and 2.7% respectively.

Because "things go almost back to pre-Iran-War normal by the end of the year" sounds crazy given everything that's happening right now.

Koufas | 12 hours ago

2nd quarter

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2026

I think theyre basing the forecast off oil prices tapering off towards year-end. Idt its consistent with Brent at 100 in Q4

Sea_Dawgz | 11 hours ago

It’s so wild to see the billionaire media try and write off what’s happening now vs when they were all “RECESSION ANY DAY NOW, PROBABLY HERE ALREADY” for the entire Biden presidency.

SpaceyCoffee | 11 hours ago

Propaganda is a helluva drug

content_enjoy3r | 7 hours ago

Behavioral economics is never talked about enough. But it's pretty clear they were trying to will a recession into existence as a self-fulfilling prophecy, but it didn't work.

Jest_out_for_a_Rip | 10 hours ago

Inflation from an oil price shocks is fairly rapid and then the inflation rate moves back towards the baseline inflation rate. Basically, the price increases from higher energy costs get passed through fairly quickly and then prices stop rising faster because the price increase have already passed through. They aren't saying prices will go back down. They are saying the inflation rate, meaning the rate of price increases will go back down towards where it was.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/oil-price-shocks-and-inflation-in-a-dsge-model-of-the-global-economy-20240802.html

https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/papers/2026/wp2609.pdf

Test-NetConnection | 7 hours ago

This heavily depends on how long the oil price shock sticks around. A company like FDP will eat the additional transportation and fertilizer costs in the short-term, but if we are talking a year or more then they will have to raise prices. It takes time for shocks like an oil shortage to work their way through the economy, and when it starts there tends to be a snowball effect. I don't see Iran giving up their nuclear material or trump retreating with his tail between his legs - Israel would have to take the stick out of his ass for that to happen. I'm betting on a prolonged conflict slowly escalating into a hot war that cripples global energy production. There are too many vested interests in watching the middle-east burn.

Jest_out_for_a_Rip | an hour ago

Fairly rapid, per the studies I linked is 10 quarters. But most of it happens in the first 3. We aren't talking about this month versus next month. But by next year, the vast majority of the inflation will have already happened and we will be returning to baseline inflation. Basically, don't expect a decade of inflation.

IPissExcellentThrows | 11 hours ago

I'm in Bloomberg. It's for 6/30. The 3/31 figure is 2.65. 6/30 is 5.96. Weirdly, my terminal doesn't have their third and fourth quarter projections.

FeelingPixely | 11 hours ago

Inside sources are reporting that US will escalate with Iran next week. Surely these projections don't take that into account.

OddlyFactual1512 | 6 hours ago

Source?

liroyjenkins | 6 hours ago

“Inside sources”

OddlyFactual1512 | 6 hours ago

I mean, shouldn't we just do the thing where it's something we want to agree with and assume it's true? I wish the mods would start giving warnings and banning the accounts of those that post completely unsupported claims. Why?...

It's an economics sub. At the very top of the right it says: "Serving as a central forum for users to read, discuss, and learn more about topics related to the economic discipline"

It's hard to justify this is what the forum is based on the nonsense comments.

FeelingPixely | 4 hours ago

Ben Meiselas

I_Enjoy_Beer | 12 hours ago

I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

Can't imagine it will get much better in Q3 either.  Between data center development sucking up all the power and driving everyone's electric bills up, gas prices continuing their upward climb, and those increased energy costs trickling into the production and supply chains for everything, this extremely foolish foray into yet another Middle East war is only going to make things increasingly more expensive, faster.  And by his own admission, the guy behind it all isn't thinking of American's finances at all.

One of the worst own-goals in history.

dust4ngel | 11 hours ago

> One of the worst own-goals in history

i can't wait for the history books to correct everyone that this wasn't a period of inexplicable incompetence, but intentional sabotage

aNewHope_v_ThaEmpire | 10 hours ago

I know, right? It's infuriating that there are countless examples of writings, interviews, online posts and manifestos by the people now in power in which they've openly discussed their beliefs over the years, yet for some reason, no one seems to care to acknowledge that these primary sources exist.

They may have differing views on what the "new world" should like like, but what the likes of Elon Musk, Peter Theil, Stephen Miller, Kevin Roberts, Russ Vought all have in common is that they firmly believe that the current system should be totally destroyed so that their vision of a new system can come into existence.

Devaluing the USD so badly that it gets abandoned as the global reserve currency is a FEATURE, NOT A BUG. These people have openly stated that either 1)they they do not believe that the USD should be a thing anymore, eschewed in favor of crpyto taking it's place, or 2) that the USD could continue, but that it should stop being so intertwined in the rest of the world's business (removing it as the global reserve).

Skyrocketing hyperinflation is a FEATURE, NOT A BUG. They've also openly discussed the endorsement of the idea that anyone other than themselves shouldn't even own anything, that good and services to the average person should be provided in lease/subscription agreements that depend on your employment to even be eligible for. Basically, revival of the "company towns" that saw workers get paid in "company dollars" to shop at company-owned stores, and live in company-owned housing. But in order to facilitate this transition at scale, everyone first needs to be priced out of any other alternative by draining bank accounts and forcing foreclosures in order to buy everything up. After all, if your billions (trillions?) are mostly represented as stock value, your worth will actually rise as those stocks get more and more expensive during a period of hyperinflation.

Destroying the capability and credibility of public institutions is a FEATURE, NOT A BUG. These institutions have been the enemies of the people who are now in charge for their entire lives. These institutions were built as a bulwark against the very corruption, theft, and abuse that these people have always leveraged as the means to their wealth and power in the first place. If they can destroy these institutions, or better yet, convert them into perverted doppelgängers of themselves in service of their corruption, thievery and abuse, then they'll enthusiastically do so. And in the case that they aren't able to hold the power they've seized, they don't want any semblance of functional institutions left that may be later used to try and hold them accountable, or especially to rebuild themselves.

Again, this is not conjecture. This is what these people have been saying out loud, in public, repeatedly, for many years now.

There's always been a tacit understanding that political leaders say one thing before getting into power, and then act differently when taking office. Well we have to hand it to them, these people are now taking exactly the actions that support what they've explicitly and consistently promoted for their whole lives - which is the complete destruction of the status quo.

Maxamillion-X72 | 9 hours ago

The part about the wealthy looking to devalue and remove the USD as the global reserve currency seems counterintuitive to me. Wouldn't that devalue their wealth? Wouldn't it limit the ability of the US and major US corps to raise funds through treasury bills and stock offerings because other countries would no longer have an excess of US funds collected through trade?

reciphered | 6 hours ago

The massive domestic inflation caused by de-dollarization would spike interest rates. Owners who locked into low mortgage rates would have their homes effectively subsidized by the renters. This would deepen the rift in a K shaped economy

BasedKaleb | 3 hours ago

The erasure of the dollar is the equal to the erasure of their debt. Also consider the benefit to the system of having all countries under the same digital currency, which is part of the NWO plan.

Caracalla81 | 2 hours ago

Some version of this comment appears in basically every thread, so some people care about it.

Sea_Dawgz | 9 hours ago

Might not happen. I have smart, knowledgeable friends in high places in media.

They know they are lying to people. They won't acknowledge their owners are nazis.

They are all "thru the looking glass" and have full on blinders shading the world from them bc they just wanna get a paycheck and go home.

It's crazy, these are people that spent decades trying to report the truth. Now they all just want to do what they are told.

ScoffersGonnaScoff | 12 hours ago

Good thing my corporate America job in healthcare slashed my benefits across the board from insurance, severance, to my 401k. That 1% raise this year doing some heavy lifting for me.

Thank god the CEO and shareholders decided to hide behind the A.I. hype while laying off 40,000+ people while simultaneously outsourcing tens of thousands of jobs to India.

I wouldn’t be able to sleep if my company helped US employees instead of the top dudes raking in stock compensation. Who needs sustainability? Just gotta chase the next best quarterly results and lie to the workers.

Stack0verf10w | 12 hours ago

No raise, bonus, or equity in 4 years here. Company doesn't 401k match either and I think in 4 years I've only ever heard back from 4-5 companies when sending out resumes. I was getting ready to buy a house around covid when prices and rates exploded and its like my life has been on pause for the last 5-6 years with the goalposts just continual getting further and further away. Meanwhile idiots wonder why birth rates are down and everyone they know is on antidepressants. Add the idiocy/grift of the government over the last decade and its hard to have hope anymore, even with being in a decent position compared to a lot of people; at least I think.

Sorry to bitch, I'm frustrated.

memphisjones | 9 hours ago

Which company do you work for? I think it’s time for people to start naming and shaming

Pjpjpjpjpj | 7 hours ago

There is a very short list of companies that have laid off 40,000 people in the past 2 years.

UPS - 48,000

For those that have announced layoffs getting close to 40,000, there is:

Intel - 36,000-39,000 (15,000 then 24,000)

Amazon - 30,000

Oracle - 30,000

Wipro - 24,000

ScoffersGonnaScoff | 4 hours ago

UHG, they disclosed 30,000 “voluntary” buyouts in 2025. Across the board and multiple sectors of the United healthcare and Optum and all of the other delegated entities… I’m certain there’s more than 10 K additional since 2025 from hearing of whole departments being shut down in Optum, UHC and smaller entities. With a hiring freeze… yet had a MASSIVE amount amounts of outsourcing.

Kind of nuts how inefficient the United States is with healthcare even with all these shortcuts they take….

And the subsidizing

(if they’re not laying off more than 50 people in one area of the country at any given time they are not legally required to disclose the layoffs, what we see is incremental nationwide downsizing. Purposefully crafted to where they don’t have to disclose it to the public)

SanDiegoDude | 8 hours ago

You first. Seriously. If you're not willing to throw yourself under the bus, why demand others do it? Cuz I sure af wouldn't risk my livelihood for some useless reddit upvotes. Just sayin'

memphisjones | 7 hours ago

I work for Autozone. Now you go

Pjpjpjpjpj | 7 hours ago

The only company to cut more than 40,000 employees is UPS, which cut 48,000.

The company has more than half a million employees. It's not like they are going to know who this one person is.

ErectionEngineering | 8 hours ago

Should’ve studied comp sci!!

everyeargiants | 4 hours ago

No no. Trades. Should have got into the trades.

ScoffersGonnaScoff | 4 hours ago

Agreed

liroyjenkins | 6 hours ago

You are in healthcare. Start your own company and pay people fairly. Almost everyone in healthcare has a skill that would translate to some sort of independent contractor company.

jarena009 | 12 hours ago

I'd be interested to see the impact on consumer spending now vs the prior inflation spike, given back in 2022 there was thousands of dollars per household from COVID stimulus to cushion the blow (increased disposable income, savings), plus there was a hiring and job hoping bonanza 2022 through 2023 (however since then jobs are highly fragmented, with losses or stagnant in key sectors). Households may have less of an ability to take on these increased prices.

Doctor_Shotbottom | 12 hours ago

Is there anyone in this country who doesn't want this to stop? Is there anyone who is confused about how to stop it come November? Just checking. We should all be following the same playbook this fall.

YouWereBrained | 11 hours ago

MAGA justifies it by saying it’s temporary pain for long-term gain. They’re hypocritical assholes.

DetoursDisguised | 8 hours ago

They couldn't wear a face mask for a couple months due to the pandemic their guy refused to acknowledge because it was politically convenient, but now they're saying that we must be forced to accommodate their big "let's shut up about Epstein" distraction war / grift cycle?

I truly think our current circumstances necessitate a national divorce. Rogue agents are manipulating the functions of government to punish the world. We need to be separated from anyone who supports this regime for the world to have any chance.

Momoselfie | 11 hours ago

It is long term pain for long term gain. Except the pain and gain are happening at the same time, depending on who you are.

Mostly pain....

IPredictAReddit | 11 hours ago

To be honest, I'm not even clear on what the "gain" is. Iran will always hate the US, especially now that we've bombed their schools and basically printed up their religious fanatic recruitment posters for them. They were mostly held at bay in the region and represented little threat to the US before, so the gain is....back to the status quo before the war?

Icedidit | 11 hours ago

Forever pain for the working class forever gain for the elite

xeyed4good | 11 hours ago

Pain for thee but not for meee.

snoogins355 | 11 hours ago

Cult has to cult!

dust4ngel | 11 hours ago

> Is there anyone in this country who doesn't want this to stop?

33%:

  • kamala would have started two wars in iran instead of one
  • kamala would have opened concentration camps for everyone instead of just brown people
  • kamala would have changed medicare so that someone shoots you at the hospital, instead of you just going bankrupt and then shooting yourself

so as you see, we have to keep electing MAGA even though they are blowing the country up, because they're using conventional explosives, rather than the radioactive explosives that kamala would have used. also she has a weird laugh.

Happy_Feet333 | 10 hours ago

You forgot to add that Kamala was personally killing every single Gazan in all of space and time, so it was a moral imperative for Democrats to not vote for her.

"No compromise on Genocide!" was the mantra.

Shaskakmat | 10 hours ago

And Kamala laugh funny

Overwatchhatesme | 11 hours ago

Well the party gerrymandering the country is trying to make it to where it doesn’t matter how many peoples lives they destroy. They warp a system to only benefit them then whine and complain when people do much as criticize them doing so or what the system is and have the audacity to call those people who haven’t even so much as openly protested it “domestic terrorist”

Snapingbolts | 9 hours ago

I am really hoping the Gerrymandering fails because its always based on historic voting trends so a larger than expected turnout would make these thin margin districts much more competitive in red states.

Barnyard_Rich | 7 hours ago

It won't. I worked in politics for 20 years and once it became the norm for the politicians to choose their constituents instead of the other way around, the only thing that could stop it was the Supreme Court.

Instead, the Court essentially released pages of semen because they couldn't control how happy they were about gerrymandering ending representation.

Saephon | 10 hours ago

[ Removed by Reddit ]

LogicalBichon | 10 hours ago

a democrat isn't going to stop the iran war, if that's what you're implying

OddlyFactual1512 | 11 hours ago

>In the most recent forecast three months ago, the panel put the expected consumer price index gain at just 2.7%. However, that was just before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran

So, whoever made the decision to enter into a conflict with Iran is solely responsible for a jump in inflation expectations of 3.3%. Winning.

Scrandon | 9 hours ago

Don’t forget that same person’s brain dead tariffs were the reason 2.7% was the starting number instead of 2.0%.

HolyMoleyGuacamoly | an hour ago

we had it pretty good

chpbnvic | 11 hours ago

Does Trump really trust that he's rigged the midterms well enough that the people who didn't vote at all in 2024 or people who voted for him aren't going to now vote for whoever the Blue side is rather than the obviously corrupt GOP?

1900grs | 9 hours ago

Yes and don't worry, there will be more actions to come. The entire GOP knows that if they don't win, there will be consequences. I would love to see assets and bank accounts frozen and jail time for all the corruption, but I just don't see current federal Dems prosecuting all the crimes. They didn't do it during the Biden admin, there are only a select few calling for consequences, so the best we can seemingly hope for is a reduction in harm. But we're hosed for generations.

SanDiegoDude | 8 hours ago

Folks around here were calling bullshit hard every time the Biden admin would roll out those words 'Transitory Inflation'. Good to see they're doing it again now that this admin is trying the same hand-waiving nonsense. JFC, get ready to tighten those belts even further.

Rude_Mirror7441 | 7 hours ago

If that’s true then they need to fking raise interest rates before a loaf of bread costs $20. God our government officials are so fking mentally retarded it’s not even funny.

LowellForCongress | 11 hours ago

Once Powell is out, and the new trump Fed chair is lowering the interest rates, should make inflation even worse. Here is another sentence that confirms what I just said. Further, I would like to have a 3rd sentence, so my comment doesn’t get auto removed.

In conclusion, here is an additional paragraph that further proves my point.

OrcOgi | 10 hours ago

Brother stop spread such blatant lies. The enitre fed board must vote for it to pass. Really wish the 22 year old idiots would not be allowed on here anymore when they present dumb opinions as facts.

DomProLuxPolished | an hour ago

The same thing happens when talking about Social Security. All the knowledge they have is surface level (they only read titles).

B00marangTrotter | 10 hours ago

#Meanwhile, leopard face eating economy is booming!

That's right, leopards everywhere are gorging on faces of all shapes and sizes. Intoxicated on maga tears these leapards pose zero threat to you, but sadly you have to endure the stupidity and hardship of the now faceless morons.

But do not dispare, soon the face eaten idiots will start eating each other. The great implosion is approaching.

GearTwunk | 10 hours ago

You all have enough energy to write a whole paragraph on reddit bitching about this but you can't be bothered to show up and vote

You have the economy you deserve

Snapingbolts | 9 hours ago

I vote in every mid-term, general, and this year I voted in my first primary. People not voting makes me so angry! Our forefathers literally spilled blood for the right to vote and people can't be bothered to register and then show up!