We are just starting to see the secondary supply chain effects of the closure of Hormuz. A 2.2% decrease in the global supply of aluminum will have meaningful price impacts first in aluminum, and then air travel, consumer goods, electric transmission and generation, and anything else that uses aluminum as an input.
Aluminum processing requires an absurd amount of energy. Prices are going to fly on it between the shipping and production both being heavily influenced by oil prices.
" The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just an energy story - it's now spreading into industrial metals. These second- and third-order effects could soon disrupt global supply chains and tighten aluminium availability, thus pressuring prices higher."
So on top of tariffs, which have already created uncertainty for manufacturers when ordering substrates and supplies - the possibility of even more price increases due to further strain on supply chains is yet another hurdle for American manufacturers.
i feel like eventually this MF is going to force the earth into the sun.
a single human fuckhead is destroying global commerce.
due to stupidity.
al queda is just laughing their ass off.
the us government make the taliban look professional and polished.
trump makes putin look like a Patton.
this should put to rest the whole “white supremacy” ideology
Oil, fertilizer and aluminum outbound through the strait; food, containerized finished goods and bulk commodities (cement?) inbound. What other supplies and commodities go through Hormuz?
This is benefiting Canada btw, cuz guess what some of our biggest exports are? Oil, Potash fertalizer, and Aluminum. Too bad Trump put 10, 10, and 25% tarrifs respectively on them. Holy FUCK that guy is stupid! 🤣
LNG and helium, both extremely important to the semiconductor industry. Between that and higher energy costs to run data centers, making the profitability math work for AI companies is about to get even more daunting than it already is.
Good thing the USA has a loyal ally that hasn't been antagonized that produces all three of those crucial input bases in extremely efficient quantities.
It'd be incredibly silly to start a war potentially hitting your economic inputs to your value added economy while simultaneously having a trade war with said ally.
Its kinda funny. Here in Canada, we have fertilizer and we have aluminium. So, when renegotiating USMCA, we put export taxes on fertilizers and aluminium, gotcha.
There is one way to fuck over the US that Carney may have up his sleeve still. But we don't want to fuck them over too much yet, cuz 65% of our trade is still with them and we'll be affected too....
Get the planet off of using the US dollar as the global reserve currency. If you check out Carney's Wikipedia page, which he's mentioned he used to edit himself, he has ideas for this under the Views=>Economics=>Monetary Policy section. It's been there since he ran for Liberal leader, and has changed overtime.
I suspect he'll use that as leverage during CUSMA negotiations. I also like to think he's already been discussing this behind closed doors as he travels around the world signing trade deals. It's not BRICS either, and it DOES match what he said in his Davos speech.
Dedollarisation is going to happen, whether Carney prepares Canada for it or not. Just dont expect the US$ to disappear or become irrelevant. As for the trade talks, me I'd be fine with the good ol' nafta. But when Trump begins to whine about our dairy industry, this time we say fuck off and no, we dont give you more this time around.
Hopefully now Canada remembers the importance of controlling a sufficient local food supply.
The secondary effects of this crisis alone are going to send the global economy into a deep stagflationary recession, and we're only beginning to see them.
[OP] twenafeesh | 21 hours ago
We are just starting to see the secondary supply chain effects of the closure of Hormuz. A 2.2% decrease in the global supply of aluminum will have meaningful price impacts first in aluminum, and then air travel, consumer goods, electric transmission and generation, and anything else that uses aluminum as an input.
SilverBack88 | 15 hours ago
My HVAC commissions are going up again.
bailtail | 20 hours ago
Aluminum processing requires an absurd amount of energy. Prices are going to fly on it between the shipping and production both being heavily influenced by oil prices.
lowsparkedheels | 16 hours ago
" The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just an energy story - it's now spreading into industrial metals. These second- and third-order effects could soon disrupt global supply chains and tighten aluminium availability, thus pressuring prices higher."
So on top of tariffs, which have already created uncertainty for manufacturers when ordering substrates and supplies - the possibility of even more price increases due to further strain on supply chains is yet another hurdle for American manufacturers.
This is not economically 'winning'.
ariadesitter | 13 hours ago
i feel like eventually this MF is going to force the earth into the sun.
a single human fuckhead is destroying global commerce.
due to stupidity.
al queda is just laughing their ass off.
the us government make the taliban look professional and polished. trump makes putin look like a Patton.
this should put to rest the whole “white supremacy” ideology
chipoatley | 17 hours ago
Oil, fertilizer and aluminum outbound through the strait; food, containerized finished goods and bulk commodities (cement?) inbound. What other supplies and commodities go through Hormuz?
Someone remind us again, what is the Plan B?
Tribe303 | 15 hours ago
This is benefiting Canada btw, cuz guess what some of our biggest exports are? Oil, Potash fertalizer, and Aluminum. Too bad Trump put 10, 10, and 25% tarrifs respectively on them. Holy FUCK that guy is stupid! 🤣
MrD3a7h | 16 hours ago
This implies there was a Plan A
Xeynon | 16 hours ago
LNG and helium, both extremely important to the semiconductor industry. Between that and higher energy costs to run data centers, making the profitability math work for AI companies is about to get even more daunting than it already is.
gplfalt | 14 hours ago
>Oil, fertilizer and aluminum
Good thing the USA has a loyal ally that hasn't been antagonized that produces all three of those crucial input bases in extremely efficient quantities.
It'd be incredibly silly to start a war potentially hitting your economic inputs to your value added economy while simultaneously having a trade war with said ally.
Microplasticsharts | 14 hours ago
Chemicals and plastics, Naphtha is critical, it’s the primary feedstock for crackers and plastic production in Asia.
Express_Spirit_3350 | 16 hours ago
Its kinda funny. Here in Canada, we have fertilizer and we have aluminium. So, when renegotiating USMCA, we put export taxes on fertilizers and aluminium, gotcha.
Tribe303 | 15 hours ago
Trump already taxed Americans with 10% tarrifs on Potash, and 25% on Aluminum. He's already fucking over his own citizens so we don't have to. 🤣
Express_Spirit_3350 | 15 hours ago
We are good neighbors, we can do our part.
Tribe303 | 14 hours ago
There is one way to fuck over the US that Carney may have up his sleeve still. But we don't want to fuck them over too much yet, cuz 65% of our trade is still with them and we'll be affected too....
Get the planet off of using the US dollar as the global reserve currency. If you check out Carney's Wikipedia page, which he's mentioned he used to edit himself, he has ideas for this under the Views=>Economics=>Monetary Policy section. It's been there since he ran for Liberal leader, and has changed overtime.
I suspect he'll use that as leverage during CUSMA negotiations. I also like to think he's already been discussing this behind closed doors as he travels around the world signing trade deals. It's not BRICS either, and it DOES match what he said in his Davos speech.
Express_Spirit_3350 | 14 hours ago
Dedollarisation is going to happen, whether Carney prepares Canada for it or not. Just dont expect the US$ to disappear or become irrelevant. As for the trade talks, me I'd be fine with the good ol' nafta. But when Trump begins to whine about our dairy industry, this time we say fuck off and no, we dont give you more this time around.
Hopefully now Canada remembers the importance of controlling a sufficient local food supply.
Xeynon | 16 hours ago
It's not just about oil prices.
The secondary effects of this crisis alone are going to send the global economy into a deep stagflationary recession, and we're only beginning to see them.