The US has over 23 million millionaires. This article is just about Fidelity 401k balances which is a tiny fraction of that. Source
https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/insights/global-wealth-report.html
Not really, if you own a home in an expensive area you can always cash out and downsize/rent somewhere cheaper. If you arent a millionaire in a cheaper area youre still probably screwed when it comes to your last 10 years of life. Holding costs on homes are going way up everywhere. Hopefully our elder care situation is going to be fixed in the next 2 decades but I doubt it.
No, medical and eldercare will bankrupt them, housing will just chip away. Repairs are getting more and more expensive, same with materials. Taxes arent ever going to go down either. I hope trends dont continue the way theyve been going but its hard to be optimistic.
My mom owns her home and is able to comfortably live off social security alone. Next year will be the first time she draws down her 401k because of RMDs.
Sorry but as far as I can see, we just minted a record number of millionaires under a capitalist system. These aren’t mega rich, they are average every day working people that got rich by working and being financially smart.
Communism or socialism has nothing to offer like that. Best I can do is a Soviet apartment block and an assignment to coal mining camp #16
CPI math says 1990’s $1M ≈ $2.5–2.6M today. But relative millionaire-ness — how rare or high-status that net worth actually is — has eroded faster than inflation alone, because asset prices (stocks, real estate) and top-end wealth concentration have grown faster than consumer prices. A “1990s millionaire” in terms of percentile standing would need something closer to $3–5M+ today, depending on which wealth benchmark you use.
Bottom line is there are more millionaires today than you could account for in just inflation adjustment alone.
Whats fiat currency have to do with socialism? I believe we should have a hybridization of all systems depending on the economic impact of a business or market segment to society. . . .
It’s actually really reasonable. 100% capitalism will leave millions in poverty (already seen, this would only get worse). What they’re proposing isn’t close to 100% socialism
Owning a home and having a retirement fund can make you a millionaire. Try to remember that the difference between a millionaire and a billionaire is $999 million dollars, and all billionaires are bad for humanity.
Many Americans got rich working for those billionaires, and would not have had those opportunities otherwise. You benefit from the work of billionaire every single day. They should be taxed more, but “all billionaires are bad for humanity” is just ideological and hyperbolic.
The purchasing power of every one of their dollars is dependent on the global majority being poor, lest inflationary pressures kick in. And given that aggregate debts inherently outpace dollars in circulation - such that all profits will tend to push others toward debt and so poverty against their will, especially as most growth flows toward those with a monopoly on land and credit, and as velocity is never high enough, and as rates of return on capital outpace growth, and as interest compounds - we can say that what you are defending is both a form of violence, and unethical.
You know, I bet you’d feel a lot less tired if you didn’t tie yourself in knots doing stuff like this to try to claim the economy is a form of violence lol
You are driving home a really important point here. In the early days of Economics it was more philosophical. Smith and Marx both approached it as such. The reason it is more a philosophy than a science is due to the fact that Economic conditions have real moral impact on the every day person. Now that it has been distilled down to a math equation, we are seeing what a complete lack of moral implications in Economic policy have.
Anyone familiar with Smiths work would tell you what we have today is not what he would consider capitalism. The centralization of wealth to a very few, I would wager he'd call this Feudalism with extra steps.
And it would only take about 5 minutes living in an actual feudal society or the Soviet Union for a person to learn about actual violence, instead of whatever you’ve dreamed up here in response to the American economic system.
Like the system could use some work and checks and balances, but get a grip on reality my dude lol
And yet, compared to someplace like the Soviet Union, US public bathrooms could at least achieve a decent supply of toilet paper. So I guess there are some perks to the funny money system lol
People continue to call for this so called bubble to burst. Is it? Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe we still have another 40% to run up before a 20% correction.
Keep buying and investing. It’s a long term game. Shift away from stocks as you approach retirement to lower your risk.
I'm not saying it's a bubble, but your example of 20% correction is on the optimistic side for an actual bubble. Multiple times in history, decades apart, the largest bunches of stocks have lost 70-80% in the largest corrections
Right, I don’t disagree. But what you don’t know is the when. These stocks could be a value at the moment. This is why we invest regularly over the long term and do not try to time the market. It is irrational and it could easily run another 50% before it crashes. I can just as easily say it tanks 50% tomorrow. It is impossible to say.
We are living on borrowed time, just the interest on our national debt is 20% of our GDP now, that’s not sustainable. Those million dollar 401Ks will lose at least a third of their value.
LOL, I'd love to see where you got the 20% because interest payments on the federal debt is about 3% of GDP.
And linking the national debt to 401k balances shows you don't know these accounts work. 401ks own equities, not government debt. Corporate earnings drive stock values, not the federal balance sheet.
A lot of these accounts have already been through and survived the dot-com crash in 2000, the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2020 COVID. Markets always pull back but if you're diversified, invest regularly and in it for the long-term, you virutally can't lose even if you try to.
The most likely "solution" to the debt is that the Government will inflate it away, hopefully at a gradual pace, but who knows.
If inflation occurs, the people who bought assets will become even wealthier because the assets will grow while the value of any debt they took on will be inflated away.
Inflation/Government Debt tends to worsen wealth inequality. Taxes would reduce wealth inequality, but I don't see an increase happening until the Dems get control of all 3 branches. 2-3 years at the earliest.
You do know this very thing happened during frumps first term right? It was a 30% drop, it bounced back quick but it did drop 30%… and yeah I’ll write back to you when the shit hits the fan. I’m as prepared as I can be, I have no debt , 6 figure job and quite a bit of savings in things that sustain value…I’m sorry to say it’s gonna happen sooner than you think.
So it dropped 30% and then rebounded? So you’re saying if you held your stock and didn’t sell, you’d be well in the black?
Please look at where the S&P500 was during Trump’s first term and now. This is not a political comment. Simply pointing out the level of growth we have seen. So I’m really not sure the point you’re trying to make.
There is a major difference between currency comparisons and real assets. Dollar has not gone up or down except maybe against the yen, which is down a lot. But with real assets yes all currencies are doing terrible.
Sure, what time scale would you prefer? It's also flat over the year, 2 year, 3 year, 4 year, 5 year... The past exchange rate isn't a mystery I'm not sure why you would try to argue this
The euro started slipping in February of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and threatened Europes natural gas supplies, and started strengthening again when Europe filled their natural gas storage facilities and the ecb raised rates by a percent if I'm not mistaken. We're 4 years out and this isn't disputed, but whatever.
Im not sure this is making the best point? Arent we at 2016 levels and in generally historically high compared to euro? The dollar was so strong the last year it was parity with euro…
The US dollar has remained relatively stable overall. After Biden left office, it surged due to tariff threats, then returned to normal levels. The euro’s appreciation has not been particularly large. Most importantly, according to SWIFT international payment data, the dollar’s share in July stood at 50.99%, remaining strong and higher than its share five years ago, while the euro’s share has fallen from around 25% five years ago to under 22% now.
Igorant people like you on this sub are so tiresome.
You didn't know anything about US exchange rates.
Then you see a headline about the USD declining and come to all sorts of mistaken conclusions because you are too ignorant to know that it is moving well within a historical range, you have no context to understand what you are hearing...but none of that matters because you are too lazy to do any actual research anyway.
How do people like you live in the real world? Are you a student?
Oh thank God. With higher gas, beef, and other commodity prices I thought we would lose the millionaires class. Just look at our healthcare system, it is not there to provide healthcare, it is made to create and sustain millionaires. It's good to know the millionaires will be ok, as far as us plebs are concerned we can fuck off
Are you complaining about the 0.01% or actually complaining about people who have $1M? My wife and I have over $1M saved and invested and I can assure you we are working people who bust our asses for 40+ hours every week.
These are average every day working people whose total net worth crossed over 1 million.
This is an overwhelming success for the working class / proletariat. Keep complaining that average every day people are able to get rich just by working regular jobs
You could easily be a millionaire if you invested for 30 years and took advantage of compound interest. God damn this is r/economics just do some basic math
Investing $25,000 per year for 30 years at a 7% annual return will grow your portfolio to an estimated final value of $2,361,520.
Since you’re too much of a pussy to stand by your false claims I’ll respond here:
Go ahead ignore the extremely basic math I just put out. Even 10k per year makes you a millionaire by the time you’re 65. I own a home and have a family with pets. I will be a millionaire by the time I’m 35.
I am 100% positive you do not have a degree in economics but good try at an appeal to credentials
I made a lot less than that up until the last 10 years. Hit $150k 2 years ago. I save 10% in my. 401k and have since I was 25 making $25k a year. I have 3 kids, 2 are in College now, which I help pay for. I bought a house that will be paid off when I hit 65. I hit millionaire status at 55. You are in better shape than I was, and if you can’t save that may be a discipline issue.
Well it is the 2020s, I laid out my expenses in a post in this thread. After everything is said and done I go home with $2;500. Which is a lot more than most people
You don't get it do you, we are fucked. I make double the average wage. At the end of the month I have $2,500 off to live off. Which is a lot more than most people. I also don't have a family. If you are not part of the millionaire club at birth you never will be. The rich have declared war on everyone else
I grew up working class, most of my family is working poor, grandma had to drop her 8 kids at an orphanage in Oklahoma in the 50’s when she could not feed them level of poor. those are the people I came from. I don’t accept your assertion. Keep that up and your prophecy may become your reality.
After retirement, healthcare and union dues and everything I take home $6,500. My mortgage is $3,100 with utilities say about $450 a month car payment $450 car insurance $300. So that's $4,300 gone right there. That gives me $2,200 to live off. Where is $,2,000 going to come from? This is how I know you guys live at home with your parents
LoL no you don't, let's see your expenses.. what is your job title?
Here are mine
After retirement, healthcare and union dues and everything I take home $6,500. My mortgage is $3,100 with utilities say about $450 a month car payment $450 car insurance $300. So that's $4,300 gone right there. That gives me $2,200 to live off. Where is $,2,000 going to come from? This is how I know you guys live at home with your parents
Ok let's do the math. After taxes, healthcare retirement and everything I take home $6,500. My mortgage is $3,100 with utilities say about $450 a month car payment $450 car insurance $300. So that's $4,300 gone right there. That gives me $2,200 to live off. Where is $,2,000 going to come from? This is how I know you guys live at home with your parents
Edit forgot my student loan, $190 a month
Edit ok potential home owners let's go over some things. Utilies could include power, garbage, good water, bad water, HOA, and someone help me out Malthusian something like that. Paying off a bond that was used to pay for ne infrastructure
The typical full-time American worker earns a median wage of about $64,220 to $65,052 per year ($1,235 to $1,251 per week), according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. [1] (https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us), [2] (https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/average-salary-in-us/)According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the typical full-time worker in the US earned a median wage of $1,235 per week in the first quarter of 2026, which would total about $64,220 per year.Average vs. Median IncomeMedian Income: Economists often look at the median (the exact middle point where half earn more and half earn less) because it avoids being skewed by multi-millionaires or billionaires. [1] (https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/average-salary-in-us/), [2] (https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us)Average (Mean) Income: When you add up all individ
After retirement, healthcare and union dues and everything I take home $6,500. My mortgage is $3,100 with utilities say about $450 a month car payment $450 car insurance $300. So that's $4,300 gone right there. That gives me $2,200 to live off. Where is $,2,000 going to come from? This is how I know you guys live at home with your parents
>These are average every day working people whose total net worth crossed over 1 million.
No, these aren't average, ordinary, everyday working people. A million-dollar net worth puts you in the top 20%. That is not "average".
>This is an overwhelming success for the working class / proletariat
No, this is what happens when you have inflation.
Thirty years ago, a $1 million net worth would put you in the top 5%. Now, that barely puts you in the top 20%. A million dollars today has the same approximate worth as $470K in 1996 dollars.
It's easy to make millionaires with inflation.
>Keep complaining that average every day people are able to get rich just by working regular jobs
People who work regular jobs aren't the ones crossing a million dollars in net worth. The article itself states this. The people working "regular jobs" have a median net worth of $190K.
Furthermore, a $1 million net worth is not rich by any stretch of the imagination. That's home equity plus an anemic 401k these days. It's not even enough to retire on comfortably.
LMFAO you might want to look up what a market failure is because half the classes I took to get my economics degree talked all about them. It's funny someone who has never stepped foot in an economics class telling someone with an economic degree they have nothing to contribute in an economic sub Reddit
Told my doctor I’ve always had trouble sleeping… didn’t realize it opened the gates to “medical equipment supplier” hell.
My wife I had two kids, one of which takes after me and has had several ER visits for minor injuries, so not like I’m completely oblivious to how the system works. Kids finally started sleeping well through the night so I took a sleep test…
Two weeks in to CPAP and it’s painfully obvious that the medical equipment supply game is essentially a chariot with a dozen horses champing at the same bit. Nobody knows where the cart is going, where the cart is supposed to be going, or who would be the one to ask for directions. But you gotta get there fast, so no time to ask questions.
All the comments in here proves that arguments on both sides of doomsday scenario has valid points but no one knows for sure which side will pull away in the future.
It's easy to make everyone a millionaire when you just print money.
Of course, when you start looking at the numbers, the picture is not nearly as rosy. It's like a doctor saying they have a record-low number of herpes cases when everyone has AIDS.
According to the Federal Reserve, 18% of US households were millionaires back in 2022. Seeing as the S&P500 has more than doubled since then I imagine it's gotta be over 1/4 of all households by now.
When the AI bubble bursts due to anthropic and open ai never becoming profitable due to their increased cost per inference, it will be a fun time to watch the olds struggle. Bootstrap gramps, you made this mess.
The inflation from trumps fuckery will be a nice icing on the cake. But at least most will sell a home or two, bringing down prices for some lucky people unless private equity grabs them all
Even if the market tanks 30% folks are way way up over the last 10 and 15 and 20 years. Hell even if it tanked 50%. I expect the bubble to pop and that's why I have moved to a large cash position. The bigger issue is Trump co has destroyed the future of the US. But if that keeps moving as it has you've got bigger problems than your portfolio.
The productive capacity and the competitive advantage of the US is currently being decimated. The effects will be felt for decades
The US and the rest of the western world is going to likely end up very Japanese. Their gdp per capita held up well but after their pop growth started to decline so did their economy. Nothing is going to bring back birth rates to where they were. Which woulda been ok if we still wanted to take the best and brightest from other countries. But see 1.
Productivity is at all time highs in the US. Earnings have been absolutely insane over the past few quarters. Do you do your economic analysis based on Reddit vibes alone?
The US also tends to subsidize population issues through immigration, which will be back on track once the mango retard is gone. It is extremely unlikely we end up like Japan.
It's comical when people who can't get facts straight want to chastise me. Productivity like gdp is always generally increasing. Productivity growth has actually slowed over the last 20 years not increased. This is a fact you can look up you don't have to take my word for it.
Have you paid zero attention to what's going on with immigration right now? It's basically ground to a halt. And even when Trump died or leaves office the damage is done for a generation.
The US took in 1.3 million immigrants net in 2025. Japan took in 140K. That's 9x more to the US AFTER a ~50% reduction in 2025 compared to 2024, when it peaked at 2.5M. Yet, the US is slightly less than 3X the size. So the US took in 3X more relative to its size.
I think it's worth noting we would not have Trump if there wasn't a significant anti-immigration sentiment among the American voter base, that isn't magically going away when Trump does. None of the circumstances around Trump really go away with him, even just the base culture of corruption and grifting. Even with a magic, completely impossible simultaneous replacement of everyone in power, the poisoned sentiment (especially internationally) remains. That's kinda the risk the bond market is pricing in as we speak.
I don't think it's necessarily a complete doomsday scenario, but it seems naive to pretend there's no risk of stagnation or gradual decay.
I see so many delusional posts about how the market is never going to correct more than it's inflated. How is it, living in that fantasy world?
Even if what you say is true (Highly unlikely), the 50% or even 30% tanking will not end there. You think everyone is just going to leave their stocks alone once it starts tanking?! There will be a massive sell off that will slam the market far harder than the correction.
There's been very few declines of more than 50% over the last like 200 years. I think it's 4 times in 200 years. To have it drop down 30 or 50% a lot of people already have to sell.
Nobody said it's not going to correct. You don't know WHEN it'll correct, and HOW MUCH. Therefore it's hard to know when to get into cash and when to get back in.
Those margins apply only to the API business. The $200/month subscription plans offered by these companies are often heavily subsidized; some individual Anthropic accounts have reportedly consumed more than $10,000 in AWS credits.
It’s the same subscription model as everything else. There’s a subset of power users who get more than their moneys worth while the larger group of users isn’t using their subscription fully
Anthropic doesn’t disclose exact figures. However, ChatGPT 5.6 Sol estimates that the average user on Anthropic’s $200/month plan may consume the equivalent of roughly $1,500–$2,000 per month in API credits. Assuming a 70% gross margin on API pricing, that would imply an underlying cost to Anthropic of approximately $450–$600 per month for the average $200/month account.
That apparent unit-level loss can make strategic sense. Anthropic is effectively subsidizing heavy usage to attract and retain power users, with the goal of eventually converting some of that usage into API consumption. API usage is where the economics are substantially more favorable for Anthropic, so the $200/month plan can function partly as a customer-acquisition and ecosystem-building strategy rather than as a standalone profit center.
Of course a16z, the group of chucklefucks in the bubble, are coping about inference costs dropping. Costs per token is technically decreasing (from their pricing, we don't know if they actually are) but the newer models when thinking use more tokens. Oh, and if you have agents those also use more tokens! At the end of the day though, both Anthropic and OpenAI are still being subsidized and there aren't enough corporations that will pay the true cost. Hell, they don't even exist now, 1% of companies are paying for 80% of Enterprise revenue. They need to make trillions in the next few years where there isn't even a trillion for R&D budgets across all corporations!
It’s prudent not to take just a16z’s estimate at face value. But their result is broadly consistent with other analyses using different methodologies: the cost of achieving a fixed level of model capability has been falling extremely quickly, with estimates generally in the range of roughly 5–10× per year in recent years.
The researchers also weren’t simply taking OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, and xAI’s posted pricing at face value. Their analysis included open-weight models as well, and they found a similarly rapid decline in the cost of achieving a given level of capability there too—broadly consistent with the 5–10× annual trend.
The entire AI trade is only 30% of the market. If you can’t see the value of AI tools you’re blind. These companies will certainly make money. Even if they don’t, the complete AI fall out is tiny and not that far reaching. Companies using AI are not getting absurd valuations.
I'm aware that Google's FCF was negative last quarter and Oracles credit is now one step above junk. I'm aware that so much has been spent on capex both on and off the books that even if AI eliminated 20% of the jobs (it won't) there's no path to profitability for these companies.
Companies like uber and Spotify ran without profit during a very low interest rate environment. Ten year treasury around 2. The ten year treasury is approaching 5 now. That's why both of those companies over the last 5 years have scrambled to actually make money.
They didn't post 100b profit or FCF. They posted 100b of revenue. 100b of revenue when you have 100b of expenses means you made no money. Why do people who can't read financial statements want to argue with me ? It's comical.
Spotify's investment made sense since they had a path to profitability with a likely payout for investors. AI has no path to profitability considering they invest 100 billion into these companies. Total investment Into spotify was 20 some billion. It does do a lot more, I, along with a great many people, do not think it does enough to warrant the investment.
AI can and has taken over a company like Google. Google does more in revenue than the entire music industry, actually it does 5x that and it's just on company.
Retirees with sufficiently high net worth, enough capacity to weather any reasonable market downturn, and an investment horizon focused primarily on their heirs may have little need for a significant bond allocation.
But so many people think LLMs are a magical brain that sits on a server (and a large chunk believe they can "escape" because of the hype propaganda). You can't blame boomers for needing a CS and ML degree to understand that the models are ridiculously expensive due to scaling laws.
It’s not nearly as hard as you’re implying to recognize snake oil for what it is. Besides, this is just the most recent in a long list of political actions taken to enrich themselves at the cost of younger generations.
Inference is actually currently high margin but capex for scaling data centers, training, research and subsidized free tiers is where the money burn comes from. Enterprise is not using free tier. If either company just stopped scaling they would both be profitable overnight.
He has only started getting propper attention in the last 6 month and only started betteroffline 2years ago. People are just slow to catch on to the bullshit that has been spewed at us for over 5 years.
Feel free to put your head in the sand. Tons here seem to want to.
When it bursts those $1m 401ks could go to 250k. Risk management of or even looking at your 401k is discouraged by the Epstein class. The news even tells people not to.
Dktathunda | 4 hours ago
The US has over 23 million millionaires. This article is just about Fidelity 401k balances which is a tiny fraction of that. Source https://www.ubs.com/us/en/wealth-management/insights/global-wealth-report.html
KIDWHOSBORED | 3 hours ago
Actually a lot smaller than I thought it would be. Under 8% millionaires, I wonder if that figure is for house holds though.
isigneduptomake1post | 2 hours ago
Unfortunately if youre not a millionaire by 50 or 55 youre probably in a bad spot unless youre getting a decent inheritance or have a good pension.
Aceous | 2 hours ago
Completely depends on where you live and whether you own your home.
isigneduptomake1post | 2 hours ago
Not really, if you own a home in an expensive area you can always cash out and downsize/rent somewhere cheaper. If you arent a millionaire in a cheaper area youre still probably screwed when it comes to your last 10 years of life. Holding costs on homes are going way up everywhere. Hopefully our elder care situation is going to be fixed in the next 2 decades but I doubt it.
Important-Proposal28 | an hour ago
The majority of people retire on less than $1 million. They don't live glamorous but survive.
Aceous | 2 hours ago
Holding costs of homes are what's going to bankrupt retirees? That's just comically pessimistic. Good luck with that.
isigneduptomake1post | 2 hours ago
No, medical and eldercare will bankrupt them, housing will just chip away. Repairs are getting more and more expensive, same with materials. Taxes arent ever going to go down either. I hope trends dont continue the way theyve been going but its hard to be optimistic.
Background-Depth3985 | 2 hours ago
Not everyone ends up in a nursing home. In fact, only about 25% of seniors ever set foot in a long term care facility.
isigneduptomake1post | an hour ago
Another thing that will trend upward due to declining birth rate among other things.
pacman2081 | an hour ago
what holding costs??
MrP1anet | 2 hours ago
That’s simply not true. You’d need that amount to feel like you have extremely low risk.
joeg26reddit | 2 hours ago
Are we talking net worth including all assets or just liquid assets (not real estate/property)
Sryzon | 2 hours ago
My mom owns her home and is able to comfortably live off social security alone. Next year will be the first time she draws down her 401k because of RMDs.
isigneduptomake1post | an hour ago
And how old is she? SS is running out for younger people which is why I said 50-55.
DeadForTaxPurposes | 17 minutes ago
As a 37 year old “millionaire” I have to say I feel pretty good.
rosen380 | an hour ago
8% of people, sure, but I think as a percentage of households is probably closer to what you are looking for (and it'd be like 18%)
pacman2081 | an hour ago
FIdelity has $769,000 401k millionaires
Busterlimes | 3 hours ago
More capitalist propaganda to instill faith in their funny money system
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
Sorry but as far as I can see, we just minted a record number of millionaires under a capitalist system. These aren’t mega rich, they are average every day working people that got rich by working and being financially smart.
Communism or socialism has nothing to offer like that. Best I can do is a Soviet apartment block and an assignment to coal mining camp #16
Busterlimes | 3 hours ago
Ill take "what is inflation" for 1000, alex
nickilous | 3 hours ago
CPI math says 1990’s $1M ≈ $2.5–2.6M today. But relative millionaire-ness — how rare or high-status that net worth actually is — has eroded faster than inflation alone, because asset prices (stocks, real estate) and top-end wealth concentration have grown faster than consumer prices. A “1990s millionaire” in terms of percentile standing would need something closer to $3–5M+ today, depending on which wealth benchmark you use.
Bottom line is there are more millionaires today than you could account for in just inflation adjustment alone.
Busterlimes | 3 hours ago
CPI is manipulated to keep faith in a broken fiat currency system. . .
Head_of_Lettuce | 3 hours ago
I’m constantly confused why you guys wander in here
Eric848448 | 3 hours ago
It’s because they’re stupid.
Busterlimes | 3 hours ago
I like to see what the rubes are doing to perpetuate a clearly broken system
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
Do you not think socialist countries experience inflation? Your rejection of basic facts is just ideological denialism
Busterlimes | 3 hours ago
Whats fiat currency have to do with socialism? I believe we should have a hybridization of all systems depending on the economic impact of a business or market segment to society. . . .
Head_of_Lettuce | 2 hours ago
That sounds awfully impractical
MrP1anet | 2 hours ago
It’s actually really reasonable. 100% capitalism will leave millions in poverty (already seen, this would only get worse). What they’re proposing isn’t close to 100% socialism
Busterlimes | 2 hours ago
Its the most practical.
Thatguy468 | 3 hours ago
Owning a home and having a retirement fund can make you a millionaire. Try to remember that the difference between a millionaire and a billionaire is $999 million dollars, and all billionaires are bad for humanity.
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
Many Americans got rich working for those billionaires, and would not have had those opportunities otherwise. You benefit from the work of billionaire every single day. They should be taxed more, but “all billionaires are bad for humanity” is just ideological and hyperbolic.
frongles23 | 3 hours ago
You really think more competition would lead to less employment? Why?
Busterlimes | 3 hours ago
Because this sub is chock full of rubes who listen to anything they are told. . . . Adam Smith would not call our current system "capitalist"
MrP1anet | 2 hours ago
Simping for billionaires is pretty funny. 99% of their benefit can be had with them at $100 million.
Wetness__Pensive | 3 hours ago
The purchasing power of every one of their dollars is dependent on the global majority being poor, lest inflationary pressures kick in. And given that aggregate debts inherently outpace dollars in circulation - such that all profits will tend to push others toward debt and so poverty against their will, especially as most growth flows toward those with a monopoly on land and credit, and as velocity is never high enough, and as rates of return on capital outpace growth, and as interest compounds - we can say that what you are defending is both a form of violence, and unethical.
papabearmormont01 | 2 hours ago
You know, I bet you’d feel a lot less tired if you didn’t tie yourself in knots doing stuff like this to try to claim the economy is a form of violence lol
Busterlimes | 2 hours ago
But it is. . .
You are driving home a really important point here. In the early days of Economics it was more philosophical. Smith and Marx both approached it as such. The reason it is more a philosophy than a science is due to the fact that Economic conditions have real moral impact on the every day person. Now that it has been distilled down to a math equation, we are seeing what a complete lack of moral implications in Economic policy have.
Anyone familiar with Smiths work would tell you what we have today is not what he would consider capitalism. The centralization of wealth to a very few, I would wager he'd call this Feudalism with extra steps.
papabearmormont01 | 2 hours ago
And it would only take about 5 minutes living in an actual feudal society or the Soviet Union for a person to learn about actual violence, instead of whatever you’ve dreamed up here in response to the American economic system.
Like the system could use some work and checks and balances, but get a grip on reality my dude lol
Big-Soup74 | 2 hours ago
Just say you’re jealous
Busterlimes | 2 hours ago
Oh look, another rube buying the propaganda.
Big-Soup74 | 2 hours ago
I have some good sites for you to get started if you want to send me a dm. I think I can help you
Busterlimes | 2 hours ago
Nice try scambot
Big-Soup74 | 2 hours ago
They were job boards 😂
Busterlimes | an hour ago
I made 82k last year and only owe 44k on my house, what exactly were you trying to help with.
papabearmormont01 | 2 hours ago
And yet, compared to someplace like the Soviet Union, US public bathrooms could at least achieve a decent supply of toilet paper. So I guess there are some perks to the funny money system lol
Busterlimes | 2 hours ago
You act like our currency isnt going to become toilet paper when they drop interest rates to 1.5% to appease the Oligarchs. . . . .
papabearmormont01 | 2 hours ago
Yup. People have been saying that for a good 50 years now “right around the corner!!” lol what a simpleton. Take care, bud!
I_Fuck_Whales | 4 hours ago
Good problem to have?
People continue to call for this so called bubble to burst. Is it? Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe we still have another 40% to run up before a 20% correction.
Keep buying and investing. It’s a long term game. Shift away from stocks as you approach retirement to lower your risk.
SpitefulSeagull | 2 hours ago
I'm not saying it's a bubble, but your example of 20% correction is on the optimistic side for an actual bubble. Multiple times in history, decades apart, the largest bunches of stocks have lost 70-80% in the largest corrections
I_Fuck_Whales | 2 hours ago
Right, I don’t disagree. But what you don’t know is the when. These stocks could be a value at the moment. This is why we invest regularly over the long term and do not try to time the market. It is irrational and it could easily run another 50% before it crashes. I can just as easily say it tanks 50% tomorrow. It is impossible to say.
sounddude | 3 hours ago
More than half the country don't have investments. Eventually when the top of the house gets too heavy, the cards give way.
fx2600 | 3 hours ago
You're right there's a good chunk of the country that doesn't own stock but most households do own stocks, directly or indirectly.
thewimsey | an hour ago
62% of Americans own stocks.
LVLimmensite | 3 hours ago
yeah man i’m sure it’s the wealthy and asset holders that will lose when there’s 4% inflation.
liroyjenkins | 3 hours ago
You can keep hoping for that to happen or you can join in the fun
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
They would rather stay poor and complain
CauliflowerDaffodil | 2 hours ago
Crabs in a bucket.
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
58% of Americans own stock, so you’re wrong about that. Anyone can buy stocks at any dollar amount and grow their net worth over time
laxnut90 | 2 hours ago
Not necessarily.
Plenty of historical economies (and present ones) function with a portion of the population responsible for the majority of economic activity.
Unrest can occur, obviously. But there is no mathematical reason an economy can not continue growing with just a subset of the economy.
We arguably have that in the US already if you look at the different economies between States.
JoeTiccalo | 3 hours ago
We are living on borrowed time, just the interest on our national debt is 20% of our GDP now, that’s not sustainable. Those million dollar 401Ks will lose at least a third of their value.
moshennik | 2 hours ago
funny math here? Interest on debt right now $1trillion a year
GDP about $32 trillion a year..
CauliflowerDaffodil | 2 hours ago
LOL, I'd love to see where you got the 20% because interest payments on the federal debt is about 3% of GDP.
And linking the national debt to 401k balances shows you don't know these accounts work. 401ks own equities, not government debt. Corporate earnings drive stock values, not the federal balance sheet.
A lot of these accounts have already been through and survived the dot-com crash in 2000, the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2020 COVID. Markets always pull back but if you're diversified, invest regularly and in it for the long-term, you virutally can't lose even if you try to.
laxnut90 | 2 hours ago
Will they?
The most likely "solution" to the debt is that the Government will inflate it away, hopefully at a gradual pace, but who knows.
If inflation occurs, the people who bought assets will become even wealthier because the assets will grow while the value of any debt they took on will be inflated away.
Inflation/Government Debt tends to worsen wealth inequality. Taxes would reduce wealth inequality, but I don't see an increase happening until the Dems get control of all 3 branches. 2-3 years at the earliest.
JoeTiccalo | 2 hours ago
We have a consumer driven economy,if the vast majority of people don’t have money to purchase goods and services then they economy tanks
Jkayakj | 2 hours ago
Hopefully they're diversified enough to not lose most of their value
I_Fuck_Whales | 2 hours ago
Let me know when!
JoeTiccalo | 2 hours ago
You do know this very thing happened during frumps first term right? It was a 30% drop, it bounced back quick but it did drop 30%… and yeah I’ll write back to you when the shit hits the fan. I’m as prepared as I can be, I have no debt , 6 figure job and quite a bit of savings in things that sustain value…I’m sorry to say it’s gonna happen sooner than you think.
I_Fuck_Whales | 2 hours ago
So it dropped 30% and then rebounded? So you’re saying if you held your stock and didn’t sell, you’d be well in the black?
Please look at where the S&P500 was during Trump’s first term and now. This is not a political comment. Simply pointing out the level of growth we have seen. So I’m really not sure the point you’re trying to make.
JoeTiccalo | 2 hours ago
I’m sorry I don’t suffer fools anymore, my advice is to just read up on all this
doomslice | 2 hours ago
Point is… keep investing, don’t hold tons of cash. It’ll go back up and you can’t time it.
fumar | 4 hours ago
Now look at the value of the US dollar over the last several years vs the euro, pound etc.
The dollar goes down, assets go up in USD. Almost as if that was the current administration's intention
Cidence | 4 hours ago
USD-Euro and USD-Pound are basically identical to what they were 5 years ago
rhino369 | 3 hours ago
And ten year ago too.
PResidentFlExpert | 3 hours ago
How bout gold?
Eric848448 | 3 hours ago
Who cares? You can’t spend that.
Reddit_-_username | 3 hours ago
USD to Euro has been flat for over a decade.. not sure where you're getting your info from.
Fermugle | 3 hours ago
If by flat you mean fluctuating by over 40% i totally agree
unurbane | 3 hours ago
There is a major difference between currency comparisons and real assets. Dollar has not gone up or down except maybe against the yen, which is down a lot. But with real assets yes all currencies are doing terrible.
Reddit_-_username | 3 hours ago
Fluctuating from .86 to .86, yes. What a wild debasement the dollar has had..
Fermugle | 3 hours ago
This guy says several years, you say decade. Not the same
Reddit_-_username | 3 hours ago
Sure, what time scale would you prefer? It's also flat over the year, 2 year, 3 year, 4 year, 5 year... The past exchange rate isn't a mystery I'm not sure why you would try to argue this
Fermugle | 3 hours ago
What was it Oct 8 2022? .86?
Reddit_-_username | 3 hours ago
The euro started slipping in February of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and threatened Europes natural gas supplies, and started strengthening again when Europe filled their natural gas storage facilities and the ecb raised rates by a percent if I'm not mistaken. We're 4 years out and this isn't disputed, but whatever.
imtrying2listen | 3 hours ago
15% range over the last 10 years. If you want to make a point look at a damn chart and get your head out of your ideological behind.
fumar | 2 hours ago
K it's down 15% in 18 months. That's rough
End3rWi99in | an hour ago
It's down about 7% over 18 months. So as countless others have said, it's pretty flat.
South-Attorney-5209 | 4 hours ago
Im not sure this is making the best point? Arent we at 2016 levels and in generally historically high compared to euro? The dollar was so strong the last year it was parity with euro…
fumar | 3 hours ago
That was the end of 2024 but sure. The trade war started the crash of the dollar down to .86 vs the euro
No_Resolve608 | 2 hours ago
The US dollar has remained relatively stable overall. After Biden left office, it surged due to tariff threats, then returned to normal levels. The euro’s appreciation has not been particularly large. Most importantly, according to SWIFT international payment data, the dollar’s share in July stood at 50.99%, remaining strong and higher than its share five years ago, while the euro’s share has fallen from around 25% five years ago to under 22% now.
weightedslanket | 2 hours ago
It’s amazing how confidently incorrect you managed to be.
Evening_Mushroom_331 | 3 hours ago
Pretty flat. Not much change in value
thewimsey | an hour ago
Igorant people like you on this sub are so tiresome.
You didn't know anything about US exchange rates.
Then you see a headline about the USD declining and come to all sorts of mistaken conclusions because you are too ignorant to know that it is moving well within a historical range, you have no context to understand what you are hearing...but none of that matters because you are too lazy to do any actual research anyway.
How do people like you live in the real world? Are you a student?
fumar | an hour ago
Enlighten me, what metric should I look at besides a tanking exchange rate in the last 18 months?
Or you just here to be a condescending fuck?
PurpleCoat6656 | 3 hours ago
Yup, go ask post-war Germany about being a millionaire...
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
We are absolutely nothing like post war Germany lmao
PurpleCoat6656 | 17 minutes ago
Not yet little buddy!
FlyinDtchman | 3 hours ago
Yeah, I was looking at my 401k the other day and thought I might actually be able to retire.... Still can't buy a house, but might be able to retire.
Which means the market is about to crash.
CauliflowerDaffodil | 2 hours ago
The markets crashed in 2000, 2008, 2020 and plenty of times before then. These 401k accounts are still making a record-number of (paper) millionaires.
OESRecoveryEmployee | 3 hours ago
Oh thank God. With higher gas, beef, and other commodity prices I thought we would lose the millionaires class. Just look at our healthcare system, it is not there to provide healthcare, it is made to create and sustain millionaires. It's good to know the millionaires will be ok, as far as us plebs are concerned we can fuck off
DavidCaller69 | 3 hours ago
“The millionaire class” and it’s just employer-matched 401(k) contributions compounded over 30 years.
khearan | 3 hours ago
Are you complaining about the 0.01% or actually complaining about people who have $1M? My wife and I have over $1M saved and invested and I can assure you we are working people who bust our asses for 40+ hours every week.
pacman2081 | an hour ago
do not give them any ideas ??
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
These are average every day working people whose total net worth crossed over 1 million.
This is an overwhelming success for the working class / proletariat. Keep complaining that average every day people are able to get rich just by working regular jobs
OESRecoveryEmployee | 52 minutes ago
How the hell someone so wrong get up voted in an economic sub?
OESRecoveryEmployee | 3 hours ago
LoL the average wage for American is $65k a year. I make double that and never will be a millionaire
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
You could easily be a millionaire if you invested for 30 years and took advantage of compound interest. God damn this is r/economics just do some basic math
Investing $25,000 per year for 30 years at a 7% annual return will grow your portfolio to an estimated final value of $2,361,520.
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
Since you’re too much of a pussy to stand by your false claims I’ll respond here:
Go ahead ignore the extremely basic math I just put out. Even 10k per year makes you a millionaire by the time you’re 65. I own a home and have a family with pets. I will be a millionaire by the time I’m 35.
I am 100% positive you do not have a degree in economics but good try at an appeal to credentials
OESRecoveryEmployee | 3 hours ago
LoL ok kid, get a job and move out of your parents house than we will talk. Life is expensive LoL you talk about saving $25,000 a year is no big deal.
You are full of shit, I make six figures no kids, no dog, no expensive hobbies and there is no way in hell could I save $2,000 a month
lovingthechaos | an hour ago
I made a lot less than that up until the last 10 years. Hit $150k 2 years ago. I save 10% in my. 401k and have since I was 25 making $25k a year. I have 3 kids, 2 are in College now, which I help pay for. I bought a house that will be paid off when I hit 65. I hit millionaire status at 55. You are in better shape than I was, and if you can’t save that may be a discipline issue.
OESRecoveryEmployee | an hour ago
Well it is the 2020s, I laid out my expenses in a post in this thread. After everything is said and done I go home with $2;500. Which is a lot more than most people
lovingthechaos | an hour ago
You start small when you are young and it grows. Compound interest for the win. My monthly deposits are no where near $2000.
OESRecoveryEmployee | an hour ago
You don't get it do you, we are fucked. I make double the average wage. At the end of the month I have $2,500 off to live off. Which is a lot more than most people. I also don't have a family. If you are not part of the millionaire club at birth you never will be. The rich have declared war on everyone else
lovingthechaos | an hour ago
I grew up working class, most of my family is working poor, grandma had to drop her 8 kids at an orphanage in Oklahoma in the 50’s when she could not feed them level of poor. those are the people I came from. I don’t accept your assertion. Keep that up and your prophecy may become your reality.
thewimsey | an hour ago
Bullshit.
You are either lying or are just terrible at saving. Or both.
I was saving $25k when I made $100k. And it wasn't really that hard.
thewimsey | an hour ago
> there is no way in hell could I save $2,000 a month
That's a you problem, then.
OESRecoveryEmployee | an hour ago
Ok where is it going to come from
After retirement, healthcare and union dues and everything I take home $6,500. My mortgage is $3,100 with utilities say about $450 a month car payment $450 car insurance $300. So that's $4,300 gone right there. That gives me $2,200 to live off. Where is $,2,000 going to come from? This is how I know you guys live at home with your parents
Edit forgot my student loan, $190 a month
drbigtoe | 44 minutes ago
Lmao I make six figures at a Fortune 500 company :)
If you make 125k/yr and can’t put away 10k/yr you are making severe financial mistakes lmao
OESRecoveryEmployee | 43 minutes ago
LoL no you don't, let's see your expenses.. what is your job title?
Here are mine
After retirement, healthcare and union dues and everything I take home $6,500. My mortgage is $3,100 with utilities say about $450 a month car payment $450 car insurance $300. So that's $4,300 gone right there. That gives me $2,200 to live off. Where is $,2,000 going to come from? This is how I know you guys live at home with your parents
Edit forgot my student loan, $190 a month
Eric848448 | 3 hours ago
Your second sentence is wildly incorrect.
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
You can literally do the math right now lmao
OESRecoveryEmployee | 2 hours ago
Ok let's do the math. After taxes, healthcare retirement and everything I take home $6,500. My mortgage is $3,100 with utilities say about $450 a month car payment $450 car insurance $300. So that's $4,300 gone right there. That gives me $2,200 to live off. Where is $,2,000 going to come from? This is how I know you guys live at home with your parents
Edit forgot my student loan, $190 a month
Edit ok potential home owners let's go over some things. Utilies could include power, garbage, good water, bad water, HOA, and someone help me out Malthusian something like that. Paying off a bond that was used to pay for ne infrastructure
thewimsey | an hour ago
>My mortgage is $3,100 with utilities say about $450 a month car payment $450 car insurance $300.
You have a spending problem.
OESRecoveryEmployee | an hour ago
LMFAO my house is a brand new build 3/2.5 1,500 sq ft that's how much they costs these days. Sorry Boomer things are more expensive
OESRecoveryEmployee | 2 hours ago
Derrrrrrrrrppppppppp Google doesn't exists
The typical full-time American worker earns a median wage of about $64,220 to $65,052 per year ($1,235 to $1,251 per week), according to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. [1] (https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us), [2] (https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/average-salary-in-us/)According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the typical full-time worker in the US earned a median wage of $1,235 per week in the first quarter of 2026, which would total about $64,220 per year.Average vs. Median IncomeMedian Income: Economists often look at the median (the exact middle point where half earn more and half earn less) because it avoids being skewed by multi-millionaires or billionaires. [1] (https://www.sofi.com/learn/content/average-salary-in-us/), [2] (https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us)Average (Mean) Income: When you add up all individ
thewimsey | an hour ago
> I make double that and never will be a millionaire
If you never save or invest, absolutely.
OESRecoveryEmployee | an hour ago
Ok where is the money going to come to invest?
After retirement, healthcare and union dues and everything I take home $6,500. My mortgage is $3,100 with utilities say about $450 a month car payment $450 car insurance $300. So that's $4,300 gone right there. That gives me $2,200 to live off. Where is $,2,000 going to come from? This is how I know you guys live at home with your parents
Edit forgot my student loan, $190 a month
Xyrus2000 | an hour ago
>These are average every day working people whose total net worth crossed over 1 million.
No, these aren't average, ordinary, everyday working people. A million-dollar net worth puts you in the top 20%. That is not "average".
>This is an overwhelming success for the working class / proletariat
No, this is what happens when you have inflation.
Thirty years ago, a $1 million net worth would put you in the top 5%. Now, that barely puts you in the top 20%. A million dollars today has the same approximate worth as $470K in 1996 dollars.
It's easy to make millionaires with inflation.
>Keep complaining that average every day people are able to get rich just by working regular jobs
People who work regular jobs aren't the ones crossing a million dollars in net worth. The article itself states this. The people working "regular jobs" have a median net worth of $190K.
Furthermore, a $1 million net worth is not rich by any stretch of the imagination. That's home equity plus an anemic 401k these days. It's not even enough to retire on comfortably.
drbigtoe | 41 minutes ago
Wait so is it a lot of money or is it not? In one breath you say millionaires aren’t average people and in another you say it’s easy to become one.
$1 million is an enormous amount of money and it may not be what it used to be, but you could retire on it if you live frugally
Big_IPA_Guy21 | an hour ago
I thought this was an Economics forum. Apparently it's just for people to complain about being poor
OESRecoveryEmployee | an hour ago
The rich taking so much money out of the economy is the reason why so many people are poor. It is a zero sum game
Big_IPA_Guy21 | an hour ago
Please get out of r/Economics !!! You are here in bad faith and have nothing to contribute to this.
OESRecoveryEmployee | an hour ago
LMFAO you might want to look up what a market failure is because half the classes I took to get my economics degree talked all about them. It's funny someone who has never stepped foot in an economics class telling someone with an economic degree they have nothing to contribute in an economic sub Reddit
thewimsey | an hour ago
> someone with an economic degree they have nothing to contribute in an economic sub Reddit
Someone with an economics degree who thinks that the economy is a zero sum game is the victim of educational malpractice.
No wonder you can't save.
OESRecoveryEmployee | an hour ago
Maybe you should get a job and move out of your parents house. Maybe than you will realize how expensive life is
OESRecoveryEmployee | an hour ago
LoL only someone without a economics degree would say that. Let me guess, a MAGA who thinks they know more than experts .
LeetSawse | 3 hours ago
Told my doctor I’ve always had trouble sleeping… didn’t realize it opened the gates to “medical equipment supplier” hell.
My wife I had two kids, one of which takes after me and has had several ER visits for minor injuries, so not like I’m completely oblivious to how the system works. Kids finally started sleeping well through the night so I took a sleep test…
Two weeks in to CPAP and it’s painfully obvious that the medical equipment supply game is essentially a chariot with a dozen horses champing at the same bit. Nobody knows where the cart is going, where the cart is supposed to be going, or who would be the one to ask for directions. But you gotta get there fast, so no time to ask questions.
Bakasur279 | 2 hours ago
All the comments in here proves that arguments on both sides of doomsday scenario has valid points but no one knows for sure which side will pull away in the future.
Xyrus2000 | an hour ago
It's easy to make everyone a millionaire when you just print money.
Of course, when you start looking at the numbers, the picture is not nearly as rosy. It's like a doctor saying they have a record-low number of herpes cases when everyone has AIDS.
TheMelvins66 | an hour ago
I’ve lost track of how many times I’ve questioned how the market had the day it did.
thewimsey | an hour ago
> when you start looking at the numbers, the picture is not nearly as rosy.
It looks pretty rosy to me.
>It's easy to make everyone a millionaire when you just print money.
Are you going to pretend that the market hasn't increased much more than the inflation rate?
the_sexy_muffin | 3 hours ago
According to the Federal Reserve, 18% of US households were millionaires back in 2022. Seeing as the S&P500 has more than doubled since then I imagine it's gotta be over 1/4 of all households by now.
brunnock | 3 hours ago
Wut?
AwkwardTickler | 4 hours ago
When the AI bubble bursts due to anthropic and open ai never becoming profitable due to their increased cost per inference, it will be a fun time to watch the olds struggle. Bootstrap gramps, you made this mess.
The inflation from trumps fuckery will be a nice icing on the cake. But at least most will sell a home or two, bringing down prices for some lucky people unless private equity grabs them all
Wasatchian | 4 hours ago
Even if the market tanks 30% folks are way way up over the last 10 and 15 and 20 years. Hell even if it tanked 50%. I expect the bubble to pop and that's why I have moved to a large cash position. The bigger issue is Trump co has destroyed the future of the US. But if that keeps moving as it has you've got bigger problems than your portfolio.
Routine_Street_5674 | 4 hours ago
Time in the market vs timing the market.
spez_eats_nazi_ass | 3 hours ago
Risk management in an obvious asset bubble is not timing the market and not doing that is fucking stupid.
Routine_Street_5674 | 2 hours ago
I also had people tell me to go into cash in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024...
At some point you're right, but I hope you catch the knife when it falls and know when to go back in. Best of luck!
spez_eats_nazi_ass | 2 hours ago
Going all cash is not what risk management means.
Routine_Street_5674 | 2 hours ago
I'm responding to this: "I expect the bubble to pop and that's why I have moved to a large cash position."
What was your comment about, if not going into cash? And I never said all cash.
Wasatchian | 3 hours ago
Generally but this time could be very different.
The productive capacity and the competitive advantage of the US is currently being decimated. The effects will be felt for decades
The US and the rest of the western world is going to likely end up very Japanese. Their gdp per capita held up well but after their pop growth started to decline so did their economy. Nothing is going to bring back birth rates to where they were. Which woulda been ok if we still wanted to take the best and brightest from other countries. But see 1.
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
Productivity is at all time highs in the US. Earnings have been absolutely insane over the past few quarters. Do you do your economic analysis based on Reddit vibes alone?
The US also tends to subsidize population issues through immigration, which will be back on track once the mango retard is gone. It is extremely unlikely we end up like Japan.
Wasatchian | 2 hours ago
It's comical when people who can't get facts straight want to chastise me. Productivity like gdp is always generally increasing. Productivity growth has actually slowed over the last 20 years not increased. This is a fact you can look up you don't have to take my word for it.
Have you paid zero attention to what's going on with immigration right now? It's basically ground to a halt. And even when Trump died or leaves office the damage is done for a generation.
Routine_Street_5674 | 2 hours ago
The US took in 1.3 million immigrants net in 2025. Japan took in 140K. That's 9x more to the US AFTER a ~50% reduction in 2025 compared to 2024, when it peaked at 2.5M. Yet, the US is slightly less than 3X the size. So the US took in 3X more relative to its size.
jhdragon742 | 3 hours ago
I think it's worth noting we would not have Trump if there wasn't a significant anti-immigration sentiment among the American voter base, that isn't magically going away when Trump does. None of the circumstances around Trump really go away with him, even just the base culture of corruption and grifting. Even with a magic, completely impossible simultaneous replacement of everyone in power, the poisoned sentiment (especially internationally) remains. That's kinda the risk the bond market is pricing in as we speak.
I don't think it's necessarily a complete doomsday scenario, but it seems naive to pretend there's no risk of stagnation or gradual decay.
JamesLahey08 | 3 hours ago
50% cash is absolutely wild.
Wasatchian | 3 hours ago
I didn't say how much cash I had. I just said I have a lot of cash.
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
Which is being eaten by inflation
Wasatchian | 2 hours ago
I'm FI. I'm not worried about it. My inflation rate is not the CPI. But life is too short to argue with morons on the Internet.
Rogue_Einherjar | 3 hours ago
I see so many delusional posts about how the market is never going to correct more than it's inflated. How is it, living in that fantasy world?
Even if what you say is true (Highly unlikely), the 50% or even 30% tanking will not end there. You think everyone is just going to leave their stocks alone once it starts tanking?! There will be a massive sell off that will slam the market far harder than the correction.
markpemble | 3 hours ago
When it starts tanking, I'll be buying more.
Wasatchian | 3 hours ago
There's been very few declines of more than 50% over the last like 200 years. I think it's 4 times in 200 years. To have it drop down 30 or 50% a lot of people already have to sell.
molski79 | 3 hours ago
so what are you doing with your money?
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
Plowing it into the market lmao
liroyjenkins | 3 hours ago
Bold of you to assume they have money
throwaway00119 | 3 hours ago
Reddit doom wishcasting at its finest.
khearan | 3 hours ago
It’s just as much a fantasy to pretend you know what’s going to happen. If you’re so sure of it then start betting against the market.
Routine_Street_5674 | 2 hours ago
Nobody said it's not going to correct. You don't know WHEN it'll correct, and HOW MUCH. Therefore it's hard to know when to get into cash and when to get back in.
jeffwulf | 3 hours ago
??? Costs to provide inference have been trending strongly downward and margins on inference are like 70%.
WSBshepherd | 3 hours ago
Those margins apply only to the API business. The $200/month subscription plans offered by these companies are often heavily subsidized; some individual Anthropic accounts have reportedly consumed more than $10,000 in AWS credits.
jeffwulf | 3 hours ago
The API business is the business. The subscription plans are a effectively advertising.
Individual_Laugh1335 | 3 hours ago
It’s the same subscription model as everything else. There’s a subset of power users who get more than their moneys worth while the larger group of users isn’t using their subscription fully
WSBshepherd | 2 hours ago
Anthropic doesn’t disclose exact figures. However, ChatGPT 5.6 Sol estimates that the average user on Anthropic’s $200/month plan may consume the equivalent of roughly $1,500–$2,000 per month in API credits. Assuming a 70% gross margin on API pricing, that would imply an underlying cost to Anthropic of approximately $450–$600 per month for the average $200/month account.
That apparent unit-level loss can make strategic sense. Anthropic is effectively subsidizing heavy usage to attract and retain power users, with the goal of eventually converting some of that usage into API consumption. API usage is where the economics are substantially more favorable for Anthropic, so the $200/month plan can function partly as a customer-acquisition and ecosystem-building strategy rather than as a standalone profit center.
Dense_Substance7635 | 4 hours ago
I think we can blame the boomers for a lot of things … but not this AI bubble. This is a Millennial problem.
WSBshepherd | 3 hours ago
What are you talking about when you say Anthropic and OpenAI may never become profitable because of rising inference costs?
For a given level of model capability, inference costs have actually been falling dramatically—roughly an order of magnitude per year.
Source: https://a16z.com/llmflation-llm-inference-cost/
Olangotang | 3 hours ago
Of course a16z, the group of chucklefucks in the bubble, are coping about inference costs dropping. Costs per token is technically decreasing (from their pricing, we don't know if they actually are) but the newer models when thinking use more tokens. Oh, and if you have agents those also use more tokens! At the end of the day though, both Anthropic and OpenAI are still being subsidized and there aren't enough corporations that will pay the true cost. Hell, they don't even exist now, 1% of companies are paying for 80% of Enterprise revenue. They need to make trillions in the next few years where there isn't even a trillion for R&D budgets across all corporations!
WSBshepherd | 2 hours ago
It’s prudent not to take just a16z’s estimate at face value. But their result is broadly consistent with other analyses using different methodologies: the cost of achieving a fixed level of model capability has been falling extremely quickly, with estimates generally in the range of roughly 5–10× per year in recent years.
The researchers also weren’t simply taking OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, and xAI’s posted pricing at face value. Their analysis included open-weight models as well, and they found a similarly rapid decline in the cost of achieving a given level of capability there too—broadly consistent with the 5–10× annual trend.
doubagilga | 3 hours ago
The entire AI trade is only 30% of the market. If you can’t see the value of AI tools you’re blind. These companies will certainly make money. Even if they don’t, the complete AI fall out is tiny and not that far reaching. Companies using AI are not getting absurd valuations.
Rymasq | 4 hours ago
why would the AI bubble burst? are you aware of how long household name tech companies run without a profit?
Uber and Spotify are great examples.
The_Adman | 3 hours ago
Look, when this bubble bursts in like 30 or 40 years, you'll really understand then pal.
Wasatchian | 3 hours ago
I'm aware that Google's FCF was negative last quarter and Oracles credit is now one step above junk. I'm aware that so much has been spent on capex both on and off the books that even if AI eliminated 20% of the jobs (it won't) there's no path to profitability for these companies.
Companies like uber and Spotify ran without profit during a very low interest rate environment. Ten year treasury around 2. The ten year treasury is approaching 5 now. That's why both of those companies over the last 5 years have scrambled to actually make money.
Rymasq | 3 hours ago
Google's FCF was negative in one quarter oh god. the company must be melting down from the billions is does quarterly.
drbigtoe | 3 hours ago
Google free cash flow was negative after posting a 100 billion dollar quarter previously lmao. They are absolutely printing money hand over fist
Wasatchian | 2 hours ago
They didn't post 100b profit or FCF. They posted 100b of revenue. 100b of revenue when you have 100b of expenses means you made no money. Why do people who can't read financial statements want to argue with me ? It's comical.
Otherwise-Ad-1057 | 3 hours ago
Spotify didn't need a nuclear reactor to stream Taylor swift dude. What you're saying makes no sense.
Rymasq | 3 hours ago
What you're saying makes no sense, cause AI does a lot more than something that lets you stream music
Otherwise-Ad-1057 | 2 hours ago
Spotify's investment made sense since they had a path to profitability with a likely payout for investors. AI has no path to profitability considering they invest 100 billion into these companies. Total investment Into spotify was 20 some billion. It does do a lot more, I, along with a great many people, do not think it does enough to warrant the investment.
Rymasq | an hour ago
AI can and has taken over a company like Google. Google does more in revenue than the entire music industry, actually it does 5x that and it's just on company.
SorenShieldbreaker | 4 hours ago
People nearing retirement should be moving towards fixed income (bonds). Also it seems mean to root for peoples retirement savings to crater.
WSBshepherd | 3 hours ago
Retirees with sufficiently high net worth, enough capacity to weather any reasonable market downturn, and an investment horizon focused primarily on their heirs may have little need for a significant bond allocation.
Fit_Significance8598 | 3 hours ago
That's not necessarily correct.
"The Poor Swiss" website has a thorough new look at the 4% withdrawal rate for more time-frames and also asset allocation.
Take a good look!
Unctuous_Robot | 3 hours ago
Seems meaner to destroy young peoples’ careers in the name of a Ponzi scheme.
Olangotang | 3 hours ago
But so many people think LLMs are a magical brain that sits on a server (and a large chunk believe they can "escape" because of the hype propaganda). You can't blame boomers for needing a CS and ML degree to understand that the models are ridiculously expensive due to scaling laws.
Unctuous_Robot | 3 hours ago
It’s not nearly as hard as you’re implying to recognize snake oil for what it is. Besides, this is just the most recent in a long list of political actions taken to enrich themselves at the cost of younger generations.
Individual_Laugh1335 | 4 hours ago
Inference is actually currently high margin but capex for scaling data centers, training, research and subsidized free tiers is where the money burn comes from. Enterprise is not using free tier. If either company just stopped scaling they would both be profitable overnight.
AwkwardTickler | 2 hours ago
here is an easy overview from Ed Zitron
Individual_Laugh1335 | an hour ago
Yes famous big tech critic and the man that’s been calling for the AI bubble for years surely has a reasonable take on big techs AI.
AwkwardTickler | an hour ago
He has only started getting propper attention in the last 6 month and only started betteroffline 2years ago. People are just slow to catch on to the bullshit that has been spewed at us for over 5 years.
Feel free to put your head in the sand. Tons here seem to want to.
spez_eats_nazi_ass | 3 hours ago
When it bursts those $1m 401ks could go to 250k. Risk management of or even looking at your 401k is discouraged by the Epstein class. The news even tells people not to.