Maybe stock prices will begin to reflect reality and this idea that everything is great will meet reality in the middle and the powers that be will be forced to do something about it- because so long as the stocks keep going up, why would they?
It's a bunch of very wealthy people pumping money into stocks and a bunch of not so wealthy but still have plenty of money people not panic selling and a bunch of institutions pumping more money than anybody into these stocks.
But business spending isn’t down. Consumer spending isn’t really down holistically. Aggregate PE is elevated but not spiked. And stocks aren’t bread or eggs. “Stocks are too expensive for common folk” is a meaningless statement from a market valuation basis.
What is the actual logic in terms of the market fundamentals that say the market should crash?
Consumer spending isn't down because the items being purchased are more expensive. More money spent on less product/services gives a distorted picture.
To add to your point, there's at least a chance that the modern stock market...just doesn't care that much about employment figures on a monthly basis. For all the talk about AI replacing people in the workforce, maybe it's replaced people as an economic indicator on the stock market.
Investors over leveraging themselves and making far less than their expected return. Is that going to happen? I’m leaning yes but I’m not naive enough to entirely toss out AI as a sunk cost.
I do think if/when we reach a point where we transition from “AI will make returns but not yet” to “AI is not going to make returns,” that will generate a major correction.
Most likely it will make massive returns for some and middling returns for the other, so things could just be flat for a bit because nobody wants to be the one pulling out
Should not will. Should because it'd be good for the little guy in the long run, won't because, as others have said, so many people are into trading now that even the little guy without much money is putting his or her spare change into the markets.
I know guys who barely make $40k a year who put every spare penny they have into stocks.
They already own enough of the market for them to not have all that much to gain by buying it for less.
Besides, their money comes from stocks. If the market crashes, so does their purchasing power. They're not going to be starving, but it's not great for buying yachts either.
They need to be putting that in a HYSA savings account rather than in stocks tbh.
Build that up to have coverage in case shit hits the fan. When stocks crash, that person won't have much to take out in case of job loss, medical emergencies, etc.
I know I know buy the dip. I am talking some kind of pressure on employers to improve wages and pressure on companies to refocus on affordability. It’s pie in the sky stuff.
Yeah, exactly. This just doesn't feel sustainable. Someone will pull the plug, which will create a domino effect and then... well, we didn't *truly* recover until WW2, which took about 10 years to be realized by and large....
The country and economy would flourish if capital was spread more evenly but the wealthy and powerful can't help themselves but pillage the working class as the expense of everyone
Price to earnings ratios are much higher than historic norms. Investors are pushing up company values based on potential earnings far into the future, not based on proven consistent revenue growth. An extreme example is Tesla, technically worth more than the big 3 American manufacturers combined, yet their 2025 revenue is less than 1/5 of that collective. And that's their best year ever.
On whether the market is likely to crash, that depends on available credit for these companies to invest and keep growing. The largest tech companies have all started borrowing insane sums of money the last year or so. That makes borrowing more expensive for everyone else, there is only so much money available. And if/when interest rates increase (which is long overdue as well), a lot of companies living on free credit will no longer be competitive.
That is how the Great Depression started. Musk and what he is doing with the various companies is the direct comparison here. The further we go without a correction, the more pain there will be.
Musk has a few major companies.
Tesla stock values have been manipulated for years. Check how many times he continues to publicly discuss full self-driving. Reports came out a while back showing how Tesla was obfuscating data about how many vehicles were being sold in their quarterly reports. Tesla was caught selling its vehicles to another musk company, spacex. There is no punishment for him going on public TV and promising things that he will never deliver on.
Ai investment will cause so many companies to become insolvent and he will hide how unprofitable it is by creating shell companies and buying each other's assets. See how many times his AI company has been sold to another of his companies.
He has already been refusing to pay contractors who are building his data centers. I wonder where he got that idea?
When the party is over and the check is due, expect handouts from the government much like the 2008 crisis because his companies are "too big to fail" and it would be a "national security threat" if they would be allowed to go under. Let's ignore that the only way his companies have gotten so big is the cozying up to this administration.
It’s not the same comparison. Retail market engagement is at the highest it’s ever been, and that’s a good thing. We shouldn’t fight policy that literally incentivizes investing in the US market.
The US has a fundamental capital/income ratio problem and one major cause of the US's inflation woes is the fact that there is a huge amount of private capital which has been gradually growing over the last 30 years which has had no where to go because the economy isn't growing fast enough. It is being ejected into assets because this is the only place it can be put.
The US is currently undergoing the largest allocation of capital in recorded history. Over 50% of all venture capital in the US economy is currently being allocated to AI. Billions, and billions of USD of private capital is being pumped into the US stock market - it is all under-regulated leverage.
This is a catastrophe waiting to happen but the average person might not be as badly harmed in the long run as we might think. This isn't 2008 because the majority of the reality warping capital flows are private. It isn't household debt, or institutional lenders being over-exposed to risk. The 2008 bubble was relatively democratized in that really anyone who could get cheap credit could try their luck investing into property. This time around, it is an elite club of the top 10% throwing their money into a bubble. When it pops, they will lose their money. It won't decimate households unless they're working in AI development, or data centers.
What is going to happen next is a collapse of the US shadow banking sector which is exactly what happened in China during COVID only it was property, and not AI that triggered the collapse. This shock won't impact the average person at all unless their pension is tied into the shadow banking system. Interest rates are already high, and so long as inflation persists will remain high. AI is a bizarre problem which is going to destroy the top 10%.
The big picture question is 'why wasn't this capital allocated to housing development, infrastructure development, and jobs?' Why wasn't this money used appropriately instead of gambled at the AI-casino? This is the question policymakers should be thinking about now. Why is there more venture capital than there is GDP? How do you end up with such a fundamental problem?
This is really interesting analysis. My one quibble though, is that anyone with a 401k or a Roth IRA probably has investments in tech companies, so wouldn't that collapse still badly affect all of them?
I should qualify it by saying the AI bubble will destroy the top 10% but that this is going to be socialized through bailouts and austerity. Most Western governments would do this, but given the Trump government is intrinsically linked into the speculative bubble I would expect them to go very hard on austerity to essentially bail themselves out personally.
>My one quibble though, is that anyone with a 401k or a Roth IRA probably has investments in tech companies, so wouldn't that collapse still badly affect all of them?
Yes, this will impact them and I said that in my comment. The point I was trying to make is the risk is exceptionally high, but the overall exposure is relatively small. This isn't like 2008 when everyone could get in on the speculation.
There is a bit of a morbid trend hidden underneath all of this. Since 2008, the economy has grown so unequal and out of balance that the amount of people capable of rolling the dice is a constantly decreasing number.
I just wanted to point out that while this is the single biggest speculative bubble in history, it is a bubble to which only 10% of the population are exposed to. Sadly, another record being simultaneously broken is the 'most corrupt government in US history' category which means those scumbags are going to run austerity to the absolute max to salvage their own personal bank accounts.
You are painting an optimistic picture of an AI crash that doesn't directly affect the overall 'real' economy a la 2008, but how can we be confident that the financial system will remain solvent when/if the people that control all the capital are forced to liquidate? Are not the financial institutions heavily invested in the PE/hedge funds that are bankrolling the speculation? Or do you mean also that lending isn't a 'real' part of the economy?
And furthermore, I believe the reality is that austerity is more or less a foregone conclusion given the existing debt, persistent deficits, demographics and general can-kicking policy in the US post-Clinton. Hell we're bailing out Japan right now so we don't have to deal with our debt.
Wouldn’t the working class who is currently relying on the heavy investment into AI and data centers builds and all of the infrastructure that surrounds that be quite negatively affected? For instance, recently in the Midwest trade unions were so in need of workers that they were essentially waving their entrance standards to move people through apprenticeships in order to get data centers built. If that all collapses at once wouldn’t that have pretty significant consequences for those people?
This is me. I'm not panic selling and I am continuing to invest anywhere between $75.00-$1,000 per week. I agree the numbers don't make sense though. I am keeping about $20,000 cash earmarked for a shopping spree if a crash happens. The market seems to be held up by smoke in mirrors right now.
Thanks. Yeah I am in a very fortunate position at the moment and very aware of how fortunate I am. I was not always doing this well. I'm doing everything in my power to prevent myself from ever having to live in poverty again. I am still much closer to being homeless than I am to being a billionaire.
I feel the same way. Investing still routinely, but more "safely" by using index funds instead of individual stocks. I'm also keeping cash on hand in a 4% savings account that is a 2 year safety net if everything goes catastrophic.
Yep! All my cash is in a HYSA making 4% also. You're doing better than me though. I only have 1 year of expenses in that account + the $20k that is for the stock market.
I’ve already been wiped out by unemployment last year. Got a job but someone ripped up the contract and our group gets cut in December. When will I be able to save a rainy day fund ever again?!?? My credit got toasted I ran out.
Are index funds even safe when the entire S&P is propped up by a handful of companies? I started looking into BRK-B it’s lighter on tech companies. Interestingly, it has beat VOO for the past 5 years.
Safe relative to trying to pick individual stocks. Historically they perform fairly well and have been less risk, but yes, it is too heavy.
The stock market itself isn't necessarily safe. Buffett's company has done a great job of investing in the right things, but is it sustainable now that he passed the torch?
> Are index funds even safe when the entire S&P is propped up by a handful of companies?
You can look back to 1926 and you'll find that almost all of the gains in the market came from only 4% of the stocks. Obviously not the same stocks, but it's always been the case that only a small number of stocks drive all the gains.
One of the theories for why index funds do so well is that they always own that 4%.
Index funds are as safe as you'll get (if you're in stocks), as long as you properly diversify. If you throw everything into QQQ, you'll have a bad time if an AI bubble pops, but if you split things up between tech, finances, internationals, etc., then it's going to be hard to lose unless every single industry is also losing.
I'm part of that second part. Sorry, I know reddit loves to doomerism and everything is 1 second away from complete collapse but the market is the only way to consistently make money and sure it as hell beats keeping it sitting in cash under the mattress but many magnitudes
You could have said this at the beginning of 2007 too. All these stock market gains only count when they're cashed out. If everyone rushes for the exit at the same time then a lot of those profits disappear quickly.
I am completely fine with that and more power to the individuals who are improving their situation through this.
I used the initial Palantir pump last year to finance my vacation. I’m not against it. Just wish the playing field was more fair to hard working blue collar folk- I am grey collared and in a cushy situation, so this isn’t a personal grievance, more of a principles thing.
> the market is the only way to consistently make money
when you say "consistent" are you including 10-year periods where the market loses value? because arguably 10 years of losing isn't consistently winning.
The Tesla stock is a perfect example. Company hasn't made money for years but it trades at some wild multiple of what any normal stock would trade for.
My conclusion is that Musk's corrupt tycoon buddies are all constantly pumping it.
I get it. Look, I made money on Gamestop when there was no reason for it to happen, but the Wall Street Bets guys just decided to pump it collectively based on specious information from "DeepFuckingValue". That shit went from like $3 to $300 or whatever and I, like a lot of people, made a nice chunk of change. It helped me a ton. Guys were posting about how being involved in that paid off their college debts, their mortgages, paid for their kids' college funds, etc. etc.
Now imagine someone knows how to do that at an exponential scale and has a bunch of buddies who can also do that alongside them to prop a stock up for retail investors to jump on the train of to pump their earlier investments even more and... you've got the stock market as it is today.
Me too. Sold a lot on the few high days past couple months, setting up some stop losses after checking the futures in the middle of the night; just pecking away. Have a little pile now. 🤦♀️
Well think about. What’s more profitable? To invest in a small to medium sized business and grow some wealth that way through the lottery that is owning a business in today’s economy or throw that into so AI stonks? The last few years your return would have been better off in the market. Now I’m sure it’s not healthy that the best use of those funds is on Wall Street instead of Main Street, but that’s probably going to change now that we’ve reached peak AI.
I agree this is the knee jerk response but what's actually happening between the carry trade and inflation is the fed can't do anything which is a bit scarier.
Exactly. Strange that bonds don't seem to be buying it though. I expected 10 and 20 year yields to go down but they have barely budged and are still higher than they were a few days ago.
Demographic trends don’t explain trend reversals on this short of a timeline. The rate was growing as recently as 2022/2023 and has started falling off a cliff right when trump started monkeying with the economy.
Probably mostly some combination or aging population and Covid causing more early retirements. It seems to me that LFPR for 55+ has mostly been in decline since Covid. The growth in 2022 was probably more related to Covid recovery than anything else, since the jump in 2021-2022 mirrors 25-54, and 55-65 is still working age for most people. Then the 55+ rate (annual basis) has been in decline since Jan 2023, which is too early to be caused by Trump.
P.S. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attributing this to Biden either. Just factors other than who's president and what they did.
We can get a little more nuanced than that by looking at the rate of change, rather than simply saying “down is down”. It was trending down gradually in 2023 in a way that could be explained by demographics. It’s been falling off a cliff since the tariff chaos started.
The stock market sees bad job numbers as an indicator the Fed won’t hike rates, which it views as a positive. That’s why the market is up on this news.
Paying employees is often the #1 expense for any company. A reduction of hiring due to productivity gains that we are experiencing results in higher corporate earnings.
Simple as that, a 25 bps reduction doesn't matter when these companies already can borrow at rates determined by their balance sheet strength and not the fed.
Geopolitics and the state of our economic reality for main street Americans will never reflect in a market driven by Tech Hyperscalers who make more money when the world goes to shit.
It's two things. It's a casino where people chase price momentum. And it's a way for the wealthy to extort consumers. Existing wealth is purchases and the owns demand a premium for access under the threat of being force to unnecessarily replace that wealth.
The first reason means that the stock market can go up simply because it was previously going up. The second reason means that there's always a reason to buy and hold.
As far as I can tell the market will never crash because there is just so much investment through various means now. 401Ks, 403Bs, 529s, IRAs, Roth IRAs, etc. all put the money of ordinary people into the market constantly, so until the amounts from those start to decrease (sometime after the population stops growing) the market will basically always trend upward. Wall Street may get spooked occasionally and things will drop a bit, but every regard over on WSB is in to buy the dip, and so is every fund manager trying to get his clients a good ROI.
The stock market reflects the economy. Americans will not stop spending. Yes, they moan, whine, and complain, but no, they won't put their wallets away.
I'm shocked that you or anyone else is shocked by this. Go to a mall recently? Wal mart? Buy anything expensive, whether luxury or not? Even the orange rapist moron's national sales tax on imports hasn't slowed us down. Borrow, spend, borrow...repeat.
People on Reddit also fundamentally don’t understand how MASSIVE and long-lasting the impacts of COVID era mortgages will be on consumers. Fully 47% of American households do not have a mortgage at all or are below 4% interest on their mortgage.
Every other person you interact with has no rent or a 40-50% discount every month. That’s a lot of discretionary spending available to consumers.
In our case, we were able to shave off half the length of our mortgage and went from 4.90% FR to 2.35%FR with our monthly payment going up by just $180. Just with the interest savings alone, we were able to buy another investment property.
true but misleading. you can have a bull market during high unemployment, e.g. if there's plenty of money to be made off of a handful of super wealthy workers lucky enough to be working.
Wasn’t it said that younger generations don’t see a point in saving because they will never own a home? They rather spend on travel and experiences. That’s why Coachella and concert tickets are the prices they are. The future is bleak so spend money and enjoy life while you can.
The age of smuggling cheaper options or making our own at home is long gone. It worked for us during the revolution through WWII but that kind of market doesn’t exist anymore with a global economy. Of course we are spending what money we do have. I can’t eat the numbers on my phone screen.
Because they think they can just manipulate the market forever and it’s never going to crash, when in reality they’re just making the potential energy of the crash build up more and more
It's because everyone's retirement funds are tied to the stock market now. We can't take that money out, so it will continue to artificially prop up the market right up until the moment we all lose everything.
why? Less jobs means no rate hike. The multi hundred billion dollar loans to build data centers can be refinanced at a lower rate thus freeing up money.
The modern economy has borrowed from the mobile gaming economic model and only goes after whales now. So when you see things like airlines overhauling jets to make more luxury seating or tickets to sporting events going for astronomical prices, know that you (and I) are not the target customers.
The market itself has been bolstered over the decades through the death of pension programs and the rise of 401k investment. These passive investors, (read: everyone with a 401K at their job) are not actively trading based on the news, but rather setting up their account and forgetting about it for the next 20-40 years while continuously pumping money in to the market funds they chose within the first 30 days of employment every paycheck regardless of the newscycle.
These two things on their own are not enough to explain the market's inexplicable non-reaction to the turmoil faced by the majority of the working class, but when taken together explain a big chunk of what is keeping the market afloat.
MY CEO pats himself on the back at how quickly he was able to do a turnaround from barely break even to profitable. Never mentions how he laid off 20% of the company and closed offices 8 months ago.
So yeah he ruined lots of lives, and Sales didn’t increase at all. Less overhead spend. Everybody leftover is miserable and overworked
You have to consider all the stuff that is happening that is deliberately not being advertised. The biggest military in the world is currently spraying a firehose of money at the defense and technology industries in an effort to pivot into drone and AI integrated warfare, WHILE FIGHTING IRAN. That kind of massive military spend is particularly good for the stock market because the law typically requires procurement to go to US outfits.
The Wall Street elite have a direct line to Bessent, Kushner et al, so they are trading based on inside info as well as the ability to manipulate the news and markets with zero accountability from a defanged SEC and corrupt DOJ. At some point, they will do the rug pull and make out like bandits.
If you strip out the top tech companies, the market is flat. Those same tech companies are feeding on the same funding they pay each other in a big circle. I’ve seen it described as “incestuous.” Once the AI bubble pops it’s over.
The numbers make sense if ppl are dumping 10-20% of their checks into 401(k)s and IRAs AND a lot of dark money needs a home that cant be taken by their home govts/the law.
The overall market has been pumping pretty much all gains to the top 10% who have nowhere else to put their money but the stock market. They can afford to keep the party going much longer than it should, but it will fall much harder when they have to liquidate.
They’re all in it together because everyone is leveraged to the nine. It’s the reason so mane car repossessions and home defaults are on pause cause they legitimately don’t know what do to with the assets and if they repossess it just become a maintenance expense
They don’t make sense to average_joe_American _001… the reason why the markets aren’t reacting is because rich people already expected these kinds of numbers knowing what trump’s policies would do.
Take a look at bls numbers yourself from Biden’s presidency till now, trump has a LOT of negative jobs numbers, but the rich people that play the stock market knew it was going to happen, so it wasn’t a surprise so stocks kept going up.
The rich are at best complicit and at worse actively hoping for all this.
I've been hearing about a pending market crater since Obama was president. At this point barring another pandemic I'm starting to doubt we'll see another crash.
A lot of people in grownup, important jobs believe debt and deficit are just abstract ideas that don't matter in practice. Not because they're smart, just greedy and short sighted.
People like you said the market was overvalued at every new all-time high since 2016.
Reddit has such a massive hate boner for anything that might make Trump look good. Wall Street doesn’t give a shit who is president, and neither do I - the market has basically put people who invested heavily and didn’t listen to the noise in an amazing position if you look at 2016 through today.
The alternative is stuffing the money under your mattress and losing out on both the gains until it does crash (which puts you in the same position as the people who predicted 2008, dropped out of the market, and then lost money because of how fast they jumped) and then trying to time the market against high expected inflation if the federal government tries to print their way out of the debt problem. A lot of the companies being held onto will probably try to pay dividends to buoy their prices in the event of a downturn, which makes being invested a hedge, rather than a liability.
I halted adding money to the market other than retirement accounts since last year. Instead putting money into HYSA waiting for some sort of correction
I read the other day that Private Equity has ~30,000 companies locked up with $5 to $6 trillion(on paper) tied up. They can't find buyers because all of the "efficiency gutting" has already been done and their Limited Partners demand unrealistic returns.
Next bailout incoming and we still won't get any transparency with the funds. The theory of Beneficial Ownership and AML is such a joke when it comes to these PE's.
Job loss is bullish for this stock market. It raises the odds that the Fed will either cut rates or hold them steady, which means that businesses will have a greater chance of being able to borrow money for cheaper.
Close, Job loss is bullish because it increases earnings. Stocks are a reflection of earnings, not the strength of the economy and fed rate effects are overstated when corporations ability to borrow is based on the strength of their balance sheet.
The Fed giving a 25 bps rate reduction don't mean shit compared to the ability to cut 10,000 jobs from your payroll due to AI productivity gains (which is reality despite people denying AI the productivity gains are undeniable)
It wont. The stock market rallied today on the news of a terrible jobs report. The stock market is by the wealthy and for the wealthy. The rest of us are struggling with inflationary pricing.
Yes. I am free to invest and have been for many years. That being said when the wealthy own basically all of the assets, saying that im free to invest ignores the wealth disparity already out there. Thr richest 1% of Americans already own 50% of all stocks in the market. As we continue to see more tax cuts for the wealthy for years to come, this divide will only get worse.
One has to have money to invest. When you’re only just scraping by, you don’t invest. I think your question was in bad faith though, so not like my response will matter. :)
while I agree that it's all vibe casino these days.. you have $500bil pension fund/hedge fund/etc where else would you move the money to?? for better or worse everybody has money in the ponzi scheme as there's no alternatives
The AI bubble is pushing stocks up along with general optimism across the board for now, plus some numbers in certain sectors aren't terrible.
Another thing is not every industry needs as many people now to achieve the same goals. So people being fired and unemployment can be seen as a positive for many public companies as investors simply see less payroll and more profits without any change to the fundaments. This doesn't mean it's great for either side long-term, but for now this is part of the reason stocks are staying high.
The stock market isn’t an indicator of the overall economy, it’s an indicator of the economy for the wealthy. The wealthy are doing spectacular and the stock market reflects that.
I don't know that trader's think everything is great - I think a lot of them know the crash is coming but also know they can make an asston of money before it happens. They're confident in their ability to get out before things go to shit....we'll see if they're right. I mean, in a crash there's always a lot of people left holding the bag.
I was living in the Detroit suburbs in 2007 and all the shops were closing up. I moved to the Chicago suburbs and the party continued for another year. Matket indicators diverged for at least 8 months before it started showing in the indexes.
They _are_ reflecting reality. The decrease in jobs means the Fed won’t have room to raise interest rates. This risk was already priced in so now the market can rise relative to where it was. This is all logical.
American companies make half if not more than half of their profits outside the USA. KFC is pretty much all China. Microsoft makes more than half of its profits from international sales.
The stock market is not allowed to crash until the demand for the Epstein files reaches a crescendo again. Then alone shall the stock market be allowed to crash to bury the demand for the Epstein files.
Well at least in the last few hours many stocks are rising because supposedly more people without jobs means the Fed is less likely to increase interest rate, which means more money would enter the market.
Stock prices are just a big circle-jerk for the "rich" (I.e. people who have enough to contribute to their 401k monthly and upwards in terms of richness)
The market is framed as a perpetual growth machine, and everyone is piling money in every month. It takes something really catastrophic to derail that.. and I think the AI bubble will pop at some point when they can't fulfil all the obligations they made to each other and their suppliers.
Is this shock in the room with us right now? The market is basically pushing to all the time high still This report just means the fed is less likely to raise rates.
Anybody that’s in the job hunt or even just slightly unhappy with their job and looking around knows this job market is horrific unless you’re in healthcare.
They probably don't think that jobs really has as much of an impact on the broader economy. The K shaped recover has meant increasingly that the high and ultra high net worth individuals are more than compensating for the reduction in spending from the middle and bottom.
What this says about their view of the economy is frankly bleak.
I have never wanted to be in healthcare but at 44 I am thinking about going back to school for nursing. At least by the time I graduated I’d have 20 years left to make decent money. I have a bachelors and make 54k a year. It’s awful.
Yah I’m 29 and I also have a bachelor’s and can’t get enough hours at my part time job to even think about surviving on my own. I can’t find anyone offering decent health insurance willing to hire more people right now that need training. It’s an absolute joke and nightmare out here right now. If it wasn’t for my parents fully supporting me I would either be homeless or dead right now. Shit is AWFUL right now.
The issue is that quite literally everyone is going to nursing bc it’s a ticket to the middle class. It has pushed competition for spots WAY up And will flood the industry in a couple years bringing wages down making it not worth it. I say this bc I’m in tech and looked into nursing and literally would not get accepted anywhere. The competition is insane.
The fuck are you on about? We are still in a nursing shortage; the market never recovered from a massive amount of RNs leaving the profession over how they were treated during COVID.
OP isn’t contradicting that. There’s a shortage now, but with the large amount of people currently flocking to nursing and other medically-adjacent roles, it’s only reasonable to assume the field will become more competitive in the future due to the influx of available candidates.
The same exact thing happened with computer science majors; there was a major demand and low supply for tech workers, it became one of the most popular and “safe” majors for high schoolers and career changers alike, and then the influx of graduates finally outpaced demand, resulting in an extremely competitive tech job market. You can say “it’s different” for the medical field due to the extra layers of required certifications and limited residency spots, but if there’s truly a dire shortage, those employment requirements will likely be eased. Tech companies stopped requiring 4 year degrees for prospective employees during the tech worker shortage, and now that requirement is back in place since supply met demand.
The influx of prospective workers probably wont be felt for at least the next 5-8 years, or maybe even 10, but it will become apparent at some point in the future if the enrollment trend continues. It’s the same “learn to code” initiative tech had, just on a far broader scale with a far lengthier oversaturation timeline.
I’m in healthcare. In the past 25 years I’ve never had a problem acquiring a job in my field. This last time around it took me three months to just get an interview. I was eventually offered that position and accepted it, even though it will be a 45 minute commute both ways.
Hospitals and other healthcare facilities are tightening their belts too, and healthcare positions are harder to obtain. Having a lot of experience can actually hurt you because they don’t want to pay you for it.
I went back to school and graduated a year ago, and have been looking for a "real" job since.....and nothing. Tuesday was exactly 15 months since I graduated and not a bite.
And even earlier this year, I lost my food service job and where usually that stuff is a super fast turnaround and I've never once had an issue with going from one job to another in the retail/food space (and to be clear I'm not at all a job hopper) it took me a little over 2 months before I started my current job and I was on unemployment, because even that retail/food hiring had slowed down. Even just listings are down.
Where I am at in particular:
Remodeled units, hired new supervisors, hired new education roles, paid bonuses to inexperienced nurses to staff remodeled unit....
Sure doesn't seem bad. They have enough money to make more management and support jobs. It doesn't make sense to me.
I don't even know what's happening anymore. My company announced earnings this quarter (which are always solid) and this is the first time the stock went up right after. It always drops on good earnings.
Maybe that's my signal, like the shoe-shine story. But nobody wants to get out of the market right now, and even when I want to, something holds me back.
Have these companies not been laying off like crazy despite their record stock prices and profits?
How is this job report a shock? Even if there are job available and ready to hire, people can’t get past the AI screening tools. The system is so beyond broken.
I usually reserve "horrendous" for pretty serious recessions, but the Trump economy has been "meh" at best.
Inflation running almost consistently above 3%, with some readings reaching 4%.
Jobs reports that are just poor. For instance, prior to COVID, we were averaging about 2 million new employees (nonfarm) per year. 2023 was 2.1 million, 2024 was 1.3 million. 2025 was 164,000. That's right. 164,000. We are at 266,000 through July.
Policy choices; tariffs, trade wars, another forever Middle Eastern war; all of these are depressing economic outcomes.
Q2 GDP was 1.5%; this is when companies are spending an obscene amount of investment money on AI buildouts, with the world's first trillionaire being appointed; we should be booming (>4%, in my estimation).
These come among some of the highest real wage growth trends we've seen in decades, during an AI buildout that should be leading to an economic boom, etc.
Eh. Even the most pessimistic of the budgeting models didn’t find much reduction in growth and employment from tariffs.
The oil cost shock from Iran? Absolutely; and it took a hell of a lot of SPR drawdowns everywhere to even mitigate it so far. If it continues, it absolutely is a trigger.
I happened to be watching the jobs numbers carefully in 2007-2008, and as a result was not surprised (although was also not prepared) by the recession. The depth of it, ok, but I did see it coming from those years of mid numbers.
With regard to #2, working age EPOP is still over 80%. Hard for me to say the labor economy is that bad when that is the case and the unemployment rate is so low. I'm not sure we even have the demographics to sustain 6 figure job gains unless we put all the grandmas back to work.
I’m sorry but you’re not qualified to opine on the labor market if you aren’t going to even mention immigration… by far the biggest factor in the slowdown.
I agree, if you want to blame inflation and high grocery prices, blame Joe Biden. His 2 trillion dollar stimulus is why things are so expensive and is why he was unpopular among his party.
You do realize, Trump had a 2.2 Trillion dollar stimulus the year before called the CARES act. The next year Biden passed the American rescue plan, which was a 1.9 Trillion dollar stimulus.
Oh, sweetie. Yes, the COVID era Biden fiscal stimulus was a major cause of inflation. In 2022 and 2023.
The fact that you can say Biden for the current inflation makes me wish that your parents opted for one of those post-birth abortions you dildos go on and on about.
And then the Dow Jones shot up, because of course it did. I've heard it many times, half the earth could be carved off. Zombie hordes could be maurading through the streets and the Dow would be up 500pts.
The employment figures over the past two years have severely overstated the market's strength. Revisions erased nearly one million previously reported jobs, revealing that employment growth has actually flatlined.
The stock market is extremely overvalued, pe ratios are sky high. If it wasnt for the tariff refunds stolen from the tariff payer, us, and gifted to some of these companies things would be even worse.
Do you know nothing from Warren buffet and munger? They have restated thr famous warning by economist John Maynard Keynes: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
Trump and the “republican” policies have absolutely destroyed the US economy. Most don’t realize it’s a dead man walking. Here in Canada, we just added 75,000 jobs in July and our unemployment rate is the lowest in 2 years.
Wall Street and broader economy are just entirely different things now.
It’s very similar to comparing the zoo and the great outdoors. Animals in captivity don’t behave the same way in the wild. I’ll let you all figure out which is the zoo and which is the wild between 18 Broad Street, Manhattan and Main Street, USA.
It should be mentioned that July was a good jobs report month for Canada. Not that the trade war was the only economic factor but the two economies are linked and policy does matter.
I thought we were supposed to keep cash on the sidelines and wait for the crash?…. the market has exploded and people are making money hand over fist while all the holders just sit and wait….. were we duped?
If you're a doomer, keep your money under your mattress for as long as you want. The rest of are riding this bullet train and enjoying the ride. See you on the other side if/when you get there.
This will un doubtedly be corrected / increased at the revision date. Also most likely spark a call for less reporting as past un favorable reporting has led to.
You mean the market that's up today? What is the shock exactly? I feel like sensationalism in markets journalism isn't exactly productive. But yeah. Not good.
Bunch of people in this sub that can’t comprehend the economy does not equal stock markets.
Hell, theres a reason the only posts that get comments here relate to some vague picture of a trading view chart on a 15m time frame or an annoyingly biased article.
Before I get downvoted, Trump is a dingus along with the rest of his cronies - never voted for him.
But why are we associating economic figures with the stock market when in the long run, they tend to be sparsely correlated at best.
Yes the job market sucks, but that does not discount the Mag 7 Capex that realizes as smaller company profits who are building out the AI supply chain.
$100 put into NVDA is not the same as $100 put into the 400th company in a market weighted index.
You’d think this sub would understand that, but here we are thinking that a bad jobs print should tank the market 10%.
I don’t know if we’re saying the same thing with different wording. The stock market hasn’t been correlated with ‘real life’ in years, perhaps since the financial crisis of 2007-2010. High unemployment, high inflation, Covid, Russian invasion of Ukraine, US war against Iran, negative oil prices, $120 barrel, tariffs, supply chain disruption, massive corporate bailouts, massive debt, you name it, the stock market goes through a correction and bounces back even stronger. It’s on an ever-expanding bubble. Go figure. Are we saying the same thing?
I thank god every day that my job is really, really hard to cut loose because I'm cheaper than hiring an MSP or an Agentic bullshit helper.
ISSO's baby, we're invincible.. for now.
Wall street doesnt care about main street, expext nothing to happen because of this report.
The consumer no longer drives the economy so why care about him?
Only 4 months of Trump's Presidency have they revised the previously reported numbers higher than initially reported. Every other month has been revised down. Only 1 month in 2024 had a positive revision; all others were negative as well.
This is a problem since Biden's Administration, and with the gutting of the BLS and lack of new approach to calculating actual unemployment (people who want to work, but cannot find work, including people who work gig economy work in attempts to make ends meet).
Market is +0.60% today. Wall Street must find it so horrendous… Come on… market is gonna keep ripping along so long as all this inflation keeps up and tech remains hot.
Things aren’t as bad as the internet would have you believe.
Consumers keep spending money while wage inflation is at 4% YOY...job changers at 7%. Banks have reported low default rates as consumers continue to pay mortgages and credit cards.
Businesses will slow spending until post November as the playing field becomes clearer. This cycle has been with us for decades and this November will determine how much power he will lose.
Businesses aren't stupid. Why won't spend money until you know what next year will look like.
>Businesses will slow spending until post November as the playing field becomes clearer. This cycle has been with us for decades and this November will determine how much power he will lose.
>Businesses aren't stupid. Why won't spend money until you know what next year will look like.
What are you imagining the business mindset being here? You think companies are going to increase spending/hiring if the GOP does better than expected in the election? If so, why?
GOP better than expected? lol…no don’t think so.
There is a long list of changes that can occur, if you listen to political news.
For one example…If the GOP loses at least one chamber, the “No Wars Act” may have legs to pass. Congress could put a stop to this war in Iran which could prevent a world wide economic catastrophe. This war is illegal while just about every GOP member hates it but does not have the balls to stop it.
“The No War through Reconciliation Act prevents Congress from abusing that process to fund an unauthorized war. Since this war began, 6,000 people have died, including 1,701 civilians, over 254 children and at least 13 U.S. Service Members.”
Also, if the Dems win back even “The House” there will be more probing into Caligula and his finances. This week, Capital One Bank announced they had closed Caligula‘s bank account due to claims of money laundering.
A few months back, I heard Caligula ask his supporters to vote during midterms. He said if he loses support he thinks he will be impeached…. and, this time the rest of the Epstein files will be exposed as the head of committees will be Democrat controlled.
And the list goes on…and on.
Consumers and businesses are watching this data as both need relief from high gas prices and inflation. And if this war continues it will only get worse as winter months are around the corner when gas and oil will be needed the most. There could be major shifts in policies after midterms that could affect money and politics.
Who’s to say. It depends what The House and The Senate plan to do to help consumers and businesses. Consumer spending is 70% of the U.S. economy. If Congress can find financial relief for consumers, businesses may become more confident to hire again.
I hear interviews with business leaders. Many say they would like to hire but have no confidence to do so, especially if the threat of inflation could cause interest rates to spike, which will increase business loan costs. Seems like everything is riding on the outcome of this war. Dems will fight for this war to end if they have more control and more voting power.
And here is more crazy data that Congress can fight for.
Currently, oil tankers are taking crazy routes out of the Mideast to transport oil. One major route is through the Panama Canal. I heard today that the Panama Canal moves ships by using fresh water. Unfortunately, with a constant threat of South America drought, there isn’t enough water to push larger oil tankers through the canal.
This oil data doesn’t get any better. New members voted into Congress can fight for this war to end.
This website doesn’t like positive numbers because it disagrees with their priors. They’ve been predicting a crash due to Trump/AI/“greed” for two years now and the economy and market keeps humming.
Some of this may be seasonal. Local governments and state governments did all their layoffs around the budget cycle/fiscal year which starts July 1st. I work in local government so that’s what I personally experienced. This may (hopefully) be temporary.
Once again, markets are sure the fed will continue to stimulate this disaster of an economy that cant hold itself up without big daddy government artificially manipulating its currency
>Wall Street reacts to shocking July jobs loss: 'This is a pretty horrendous report'
No Shit Sherlock.
Employment prospects especially beginner jobs such as retail associate jobs are in the shitter. Jobs in various departments are as well, when you can go through a job board in under an hour you know it is bad, having real job with reputable well known companies is the only way to fix the employment prospects, adding fake jobs which happens does not solve the problem.
Real signal isn’t just July’s number but it’s the change in the labor-market regime. A single month doesn’t make a recession but when the job losses replace job creation growth expectations and Fed policy can reprice very quickly. The trend is becoming increasingly concerning
Could a hot inflation number next week cause the market to price in a hike in September again, or will the market still think the risk to the job market is too great?
Lower job numbers are never good but it's not the doom most TDSers are hoping for. Most of the job losses were concentrated in government jobs, which happens every year around this time because it's seasonal, and in the leisure and hospitality sector which is due to the world Cup coming to an end.
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
Maybe stock prices will begin to reflect reality and this idea that everything is great will meet reality in the middle and the powers that be will be forced to do something about it- because so long as the stocks keep going up, why would they?
Mindless-Mulberry404 | a month ago
I'm pretty shocked the market hasn't crashed yet, the numbers dont make sense
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
It's a bunch of very wealthy people pumping money into stocks and a bunch of not so wealthy but still have plenty of money people not panic selling and a bunch of institutions pumping more money than anybody into these stocks.
It's basically an entire GameStop pump economy.
Seraph199 | a month ago
That and the top tech companies just passing the same lump sum investments around between each other and all counting the money as "profits"
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
Right. Round Trip Trading.
themiracy | a month ago
r/economiccirclejerk
But business spending isn’t down. Consumer spending isn’t really down holistically. Aggregate PE is elevated but not spiked. And stocks aren’t bread or eggs. “Stocks are too expensive for common folk” is a meaningless statement from a market valuation basis.
What is the actual logic in terms of the market fundamentals that say the market should crash?
bassman9999 | a month ago
Consumer spending isn't down because the items being purchased are more expensive. More money spent on less product/services gives a distorted picture.
_BarryObama | a month ago
To add to your point, there's at least a chance that the modern stock market...just doesn't care that much about employment figures on a monthly basis. For all the talk about AI replacing people in the workforce, maybe it's replaced people as an economic indicator on the stock market.
Stompnutz | a month ago
The bottom 60% of people are more or less completely irrelevant to the economy, and nothing they do one way or the other matters much at all.
thewimsey | a month ago
> The bottom 60% of people are more or less completely irrelevant to the economy,
No they aren't. This is dumb and based on some headline you didn't understand connected to an article you didn't read.
QuantitativeNonsense | a month ago
Investors over leveraging themselves and making far less than their expected return. Is that going to happen? I’m leaning yes but I’m not naive enough to entirely toss out AI as a sunk cost.
themiracy | a month ago
I do think if/when we reach a point where we transition from “AI will make returns but not yet” to “AI is not going to make returns,” that will generate a major correction.
Oryzae | a month ago
Most likely it will make massive returns for some and middling returns for the other, so things could just be flat for a bit because nobody wants to be the one pulling out
JitteryJoes1986 | a month ago
We're in the "Shoot now, ask questions later" economy right now.
thewimsey | a month ago
> Investors over leveraging themselves and making far less than their expected return.
Why do you think investors are leveraging themselves to begin with?
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
Should not will. Should because it'd be good for the little guy in the long run, won't because, as others have said, so many people are into trading now that even the little guy without much money is putting his or her spare change into the markets.
I know guys who barely make $40k a year who put every spare penny they have into stocks.
Again- extrapolate that... and yeah.
Petrichordates | a month ago
The market crashing is good for billionaires, definitely not the little guy. How did you come to believe the opposite of reality?
> I know guys who barely make $40k a year who put every spare penny they have into stocks.
That's literally what people are supposed to be doing. They're called retirement accounts..
OoglieBooglie93 | a month ago
They already own enough of the market for them to not have all that much to gain by buying it for less.
Besides, their money comes from stocks. If the market crashes, so does their purchasing power. They're not going to be starving, but it's not great for buying yachts either.
JitteryJoes1986 | a month ago
They need to be putting that in a HYSA savings account rather than in stocks tbh.
Build that up to have coverage in case shit hits the fan. When stocks crash, that person won't have much to take out in case of job loss, medical emergencies, etc.
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
I know I know buy the dip. I am talking some kind of pressure on employers to improve wages and pressure on companies to refocus on affordability. It’s pie in the sky stuff.
HumorAccomplished611 | a month ago
If you have money then that gives you leverage. If people dont buy stuff then companies adapt
look at mcdonalds they had that buy one for 3 get another for 1$ for quite a while to rope people back in. now its gone again.
adidasbdd | a month ago
Exactly what happened on 29. Everyone and their barber was leveraged to the hilt to invest in the market.
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
Yeah, exactly. This just doesn't feel sustainable. Someone will pull the plug, which will create a domino effect and then... well, we didn't *truly* recover until WW2, which took about 10 years to be realized by and large....
adidasbdd | a month ago
The country and economy would flourish if capital was spread more evenly but the wealthy and powerful can't help themselves but pillage the working class as the expense of everyone
coke_and_coffee | a month ago
PE is super elevated. Not sure what you mean by “not spiked”.
Aggravating-Bet-607 | a month ago
Real talk 💯
adidasbdd | a month ago
Price to earnings ratios are much higher than historic norms. Investors are pushing up company values based on potential earnings far into the future, not based on proven consistent revenue growth. An extreme example is Tesla, technically worth more than the big 3 American manufacturers combined, yet their 2025 revenue is less than 1/5 of that collective. And that's their best year ever.
On whether the market is likely to crash, that depends on available credit for these companies to invest and keep growing. The largest tech companies have all started borrowing insane sums of money the last year or so. That makes borrowing more expensive for everyone else, there is only so much money available. And if/when interest rates increase (which is long overdue as well), a lot of companies living on free credit will no longer be competitive.
tigeratemybaby | a month ago
Spending on non-essentials has crashed.
Just look at the sneaker market and all the brands having to deal with plummeting demand.
Everyone's just looking for cheap alternatives to everything now.
velvetacidchrist | a month ago
That is how the Great Depression started. Musk and what he is doing with the various companies is the direct comparison here. The further we go without a correction, the more pain there will be.
Musk has a few major companies.
Tesla stock values have been manipulated for years. Check how many times he continues to publicly discuss full self-driving. Reports came out a while back showing how Tesla was obfuscating data about how many vehicles were being sold in their quarterly reports. Tesla was caught selling its vehicles to another musk company, spacex. There is no punishment for him going on public TV and promising things that he will never deliver on.
Ai investment will cause so many companies to become insolvent and he will hide how unprofitable it is by creating shell companies and buying each other's assets. See how many times his AI company has been sold to another of his companies.
He has already been refusing to pay contractors who are building his data centers. I wonder where he got that idea?
When the party is over and the check is due, expect handouts from the government much like the 2008 crisis because his companies are "too big to fail" and it would be a "national security threat" if they would be allowed to go under. Let's ignore that the only way his companies have gotten so big is the cozying up to this administration.
alex88- | a month ago
It’s not the same comparison. Retail market engagement is at the highest it’s ever been, and that’s a good thing. We shouldn’t fight policy that literally incentivizes investing in the US market.
adidasbdd | a month ago
Retail engagement and volumes may be high, but ownership is as low as ever.
findingmike | a month ago
Depends on the company and the week. Often it is revenue and not profits.
hurler_jones | a month ago
https://youtu.be/s-ycvJC-qIQ
getwhirleddotcom | a month ago
I mean that’s not how that works.
Thom0 | a month ago
The US has a fundamental capital/income ratio problem and one major cause of the US's inflation woes is the fact that there is a huge amount of private capital which has been gradually growing over the last 30 years which has had no where to go because the economy isn't growing fast enough. It is being ejected into assets because this is the only place it can be put.
The US is currently undergoing the largest allocation of capital in recorded history. Over 50% of all venture capital in the US economy is currently being allocated to AI. Billions, and billions of USD of private capital is being pumped into the US stock market - it is all under-regulated leverage.
This is a catastrophe waiting to happen but the average person might not be as badly harmed in the long run as we might think. This isn't 2008 because the majority of the reality warping capital flows are private. It isn't household debt, or institutional lenders being over-exposed to risk. The 2008 bubble was relatively democratized in that really anyone who could get cheap credit could try their luck investing into property. This time around, it is an elite club of the top 10% throwing their money into a bubble. When it pops, they will lose their money. It won't decimate households unless they're working in AI development, or data centers.
What is going to happen next is a collapse of the US shadow banking sector which is exactly what happened in China during COVID only it was property, and not AI that triggered the collapse. This shock won't impact the average person at all unless their pension is tied into the shadow banking system. Interest rates are already high, and so long as inflation persists will remain high. AI is a bizarre problem which is going to destroy the top 10%.
The big picture question is 'why wasn't this capital allocated to housing development, infrastructure development, and jobs?' Why wasn't this money used appropriately instead of gambled at the AI-casino? This is the question policymakers should be thinking about now. Why is there more venture capital than there is GDP? How do you end up with such a fundamental problem?
IAmTheNightSoil | a month ago
This is really interesting analysis. My one quibble though, is that anyone with a 401k or a Roth IRA probably has investments in tech companies, so wouldn't that collapse still badly affect all of them?
Thom0 | a month ago
I should qualify it by saying the AI bubble will destroy the top 10% but that this is going to be socialized through bailouts and austerity. Most Western governments would do this, but given the Trump government is intrinsically linked into the speculative bubble I would expect them to go very hard on austerity to essentially bail themselves out personally.
>My one quibble though, is that anyone with a 401k or a Roth IRA probably has investments in tech companies, so wouldn't that collapse still badly affect all of them?
Yes, this will impact them and I said that in my comment. The point I was trying to make is the risk is exceptionally high, but the overall exposure is relatively small. This isn't like 2008 when everyone could get in on the speculation.
There is a bit of a morbid trend hidden underneath all of this. Since 2008, the economy has grown so unequal and out of balance that the amount of people capable of rolling the dice is a constantly decreasing number.
I just wanted to point out that while this is the single biggest speculative bubble in history, it is a bubble to which only 10% of the population are exposed to. Sadly, another record being simultaneously broken is the 'most corrupt government in US history' category which means those scumbags are going to run austerity to the absolute max to salvage their own personal bank accounts.
xorfivesix | a month ago
You are painting an optimistic picture of an AI crash that doesn't directly affect the overall 'real' economy a la 2008, but how can we be confident that the financial system will remain solvent when/if the people that control all the capital are forced to liquidate? Are not the financial institutions heavily invested in the PE/hedge funds that are bankrolling the speculation? Or do you mean also that lending isn't a 'real' part of the economy?
And furthermore, I believe the reality is that austerity is more or less a foregone conclusion given the existing debt, persistent deficits, demographics and general can-kicking policy in the US post-Clinton. Hell we're bailing out Japan right now so we don't have to deal with our debt.
kent_eh | a month ago
> This is the question policymakers should be thinking about now
Today's policy makers are a large part of the problem.
DwarfFart | a month ago
Wouldn’t the working class who is currently relying on the heavy investment into AI and data centers builds and all of the infrastructure that surrounds that be quite negatively affected? For instance, recently in the Midwest trade unions were so in need of workers that they were essentially waving their entrance standards to move people through apprenticeships in order to get data centers built. If that all collapses at once wouldn’t that have pretty significant consequences for those people?
CptTurnersOpticNerve | a month ago
Well, it will affect us when they use tax payer dollars to get bailed out, as is the custom.
DrXaos | a month ago
> Why is there more venture capital than there is GDP? How do you end up with such a fundamental problem?
tax cuts for the rich, and enormous compensation for the ultra rich executives and investors
Do that for 40 years since 1980s. VC money comes only from really wealthy people's circle.
coke_and_coffee | a month ago
AI is here to stay, bud. It’s the real deal. There is no bubble.
caligirl0889 | a month ago
This is me. I'm not panic selling and I am continuing to invest anywhere between $75.00-$1,000 per week. I agree the numbers don't make sense though. I am keeping about $20,000 cash earmarked for a shopping spree if a crash happens. The market seems to be held up by smoke in mirrors right now.
Financial-Sweet-4648 | a month ago
Holy shit. At least somebody has money. Keep being smart. The superwealthy are high on their own supply and steering us toward the cliff.
caligirl0889 | a month ago
Thanks. Yeah I am in a very fortunate position at the moment and very aware of how fortunate I am. I was not always doing this well. I'm doing everything in my power to prevent myself from ever having to live in poverty again. I am still much closer to being homeless than I am to being a billionaire.
Ihate_reddit_app | a month ago
I feel the same way. Investing still routinely, but more "safely" by using index funds instead of individual stocks. I'm also keeping cash on hand in a 4% savings account that is a 2 year safety net if everything goes catastrophic.
caligirl0889 | a month ago
Yep! All my cash is in a HYSA making 4% also. You're doing better than me though. I only have 1 year of expenses in that account + the $20k that is for the stock market.
GlystophersCorpse003 | a month ago
I’ve already been wiped out by unemployment last year. Got a job but someone ripped up the contract and our group gets cut in December. When will I be able to save a rainy day fund ever again?!?? My credit got toasted I ran out.
Mundane_Log_7169 | a month ago
Are index funds even safe when the entire S&P is propped up by a handful of companies? I started looking into BRK-B it’s lighter on tech companies. Interestingly, it has beat VOO for the past 5 years.
Ihate_reddit_app | a month ago
Safe relative to trying to pick individual stocks. Historically they perform fairly well and have been less risk, but yes, it is too heavy.
The stock market itself isn't necessarily safe. Buffett's company has done a great job of investing in the right things, but is it sustainable now that he passed the torch?
thewimsey | a month ago
> Are index funds even safe when the entire S&P is propped up by a handful of companies?
You can look back to 1926 and you'll find that almost all of the gains in the market came from only 4% of the stocks. Obviously not the same stocks, but it's always been the case that only a small number of stocks drive all the gains.
One of the theories for why index funds do so well is that they always own that 4%.
jokodude | a month ago
Index funds are as safe as you'll get (if you're in stocks), as long as you properly diversify. If you throw everything into QQQ, you'll have a bad time if an AI bubble pops, but if you split things up between tech, finances, internationals, etc., then it's going to be hard to lose unless every single industry is also losing.
sophrocynic | a month ago
> The market seems to be held up by smoke in mirrors right now.
But how do they get the smoke inside the mirror?
Etereve | a month ago
U
Sarosite | a month ago
I'm part of that second part. Sorry, I know reddit loves to doomerism and everything is 1 second away from complete collapse but the market is the only way to consistently make money and sure it as hell beats keeping it sitting in cash under the mattress but many magnitudes
weluckyfew | a month ago
You could have said this at the beginning of 2007 too. All these stock market gains only count when they're cashed out. If everyone rushes for the exit at the same time then a lot of those profits disappear quickly.
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
I am completely fine with that and more power to the individuals who are improving their situation through this.
I used the initial Palantir pump last year to finance my vacation. I’m not against it. Just wish the playing field was more fair to hard working blue collar folk- I am grey collared and in a cushy situation, so this isn’t a personal grievance, more of a principles thing.
Jets237 | a month ago
My view - if the market crashes everyone is effed, so might as well enjoy the ride and make money before it happens (if)
dust4ngel | a month ago
> the market is the only way to consistently make money
when you say "consistent" are you including 10-year periods where the market loses value? because arguably 10 years of losing isn't consistently winning.
PrivacyIsDemocracy | a month ago
The Tesla stock is a perfect example. Company hasn't made money for years but it trades at some wild multiple of what any normal stock would trade for.
My conclusion is that Musk's corrupt tycoon buddies are all constantly pumping it.
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
I get it. Look, I made money on Gamestop when there was no reason for it to happen, but the Wall Street Bets guys just decided to pump it collectively based on specious information from "DeepFuckingValue". That shit went from like $3 to $300 or whatever and I, like a lot of people, made a nice chunk of change. It helped me a ton. Guys were posting about how being involved in that paid off their college debts, their mortgages, paid for their kids' college funds, etc. etc.
Now imagine someone knows how to do that at an exponential scale and has a bunch of buddies who can also do that alongside them to prop a stock up for retail investors to jump on the train of to pump their earlier investments even more and... you've got the stock market as it is today.
RedParaglider | a month ago
It's a house of debt cards. All it takes is a couple companies to start paying their bills late and it all unwinds like crazy.
emtheory09 | a month ago
The ultra wealthy have nothing else to do with their gains but buy more assets, so this is almost exactly what’s going on.
Salty_Introduction31 | a month ago
Yes. Warren buffet is sitting on cash waiting for winners from this bloodbath
Valuable-Storm8793 | a month ago
Me too. Sold a lot on the few high days past couple months, setting up some stop losses after checking the futures in the middle of the night; just pecking away. Have a little pile now. 🤦♀️
beams13 | a month ago
Well that and every 401k into the country is tied to it. It'll always have money feeding into it.
Masta0nion | a month ago
GameStop pumped because of naked short selling.
PlandemicPapi | a month ago
Don’t worry, once the regular 7 figure rich people start losing their money will they finally realize they created monsters out of the ultra rich.
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
Yeah and I am aware that most of them are doing great in the market right now.
davidw223 | a month ago
Well think about. What’s more profitable? To invest in a small to medium sized business and grow some wealth that way through the lottery that is owning a business in today’s economy or throw that into so AI stonks? The last few years your return would have been better off in the market. Now I’m sure it’s not healthy that the best use of those funds is on Wall Street instead of Main Street, but that’s probably going to change now that we’ve reached peak AI.
Actual_Violinist290 | a month ago
Because a bad jobs report = less chance of interest rate hikes
Violin1990 | a month ago
High unemployment => fed less likely to raise interest rates => stonks go up
sendymcsendersonboi | a month ago
Bingo
austinwiltshire | a month ago
I agree this is the knee jerk response but what's actually happening between the carry trade and inflation is the fed can't do anything which is a bit scarier.
Lopsided_Package9033 | a month ago
Exactly. Strange that bonds don't seem to be buying it though. I expected 10 and 20 year yields to go down but they have barely budged and are still higher than they were a few days ago.
Bismar7 | a month ago
If only we would use direct taxes instead of inflationary controls to direct velocity of money.
Thrasymachus77 | a month ago
That would require a functional legislature, and we don't really have that.
Intelligent_Mud1266 | a month ago
that would require making fiscal policy. We don't do that here
Petrichordates | a month ago
Since when do we have high unemployment?
Ernst_and_winnie | a month ago
We don’t but labor participation is declining/low.
pigvwu | a month ago
Aging population / demographic shift. Labor participation for ages 25-54 is near all time high.
Scrandon | a month ago
Demographic trends don’t explain trend reversals on this short of a timeline. The rate was growing as recently as 2022/2023 and has started falling off a cliff right when trump started monkeying with the economy.
pigvwu | a month ago
Probably mostly some combination or aging population and Covid causing more early retirements. It seems to me that LFPR for 55+ has mostly been in decline since Covid. The growth in 2022 was probably more related to Covid recovery than anything else, since the jump in 2021-2022 mirrors 25-54, and 55-65 is still working age for most people. Then the 55+ rate (annual basis) has been in decline since Jan 2023, which is too early to be caused by Trump.
P.S. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attributing this to Biden either. Just factors other than who's president and what they did.
Scrandon | a month ago
We can get a little more nuanced than that by looking at the rate of change, rather than simply saying “down is down”. It was trending down gradually in 2023 in a way that could be explained by demographics. It’s been falling off a cliff since the tariff chaos started.
Willster328 | a month ago
Yeah these people, in an Economics sub of all places, dont know wtf theyre talking about
CauliflowerDaffodil | a month ago
Most redditors regardless of the sub don't know what they're talking about.
sendymcsendersonboi | a month ago
The really interesting thing is that the “unemployment rate” actually moved down, but that’s because of how the metric is calculated I think.
By removing jobs from the pool, the unemployment rate as a % moved relative to the offset. Unless I’m an idiot and I’m reading this wrong.
jtmn | a month ago
It's sad this has way less upvotes than the wrong answer.
Stags304 | a month ago
Yep just that simple. The best case scenario is a very mild downturn that will get rates cut without impacting business
burnthatburner1 | a month ago
The stock market sees bad job numbers as an indicator the Fed won’t hike rates, which it views as a positive. That’s why the market is up on this news.
origami_bluebird | a month ago
The stock market is driven by corporate earnings.
Paying employees is often the #1 expense for any company. A reduction of hiring due to productivity gains that we are experiencing results in higher corporate earnings.
Simple as that, a 25 bps reduction doesn't matter when these companies already can borrow at rates determined by their balance sheet strength and not the fed.
Geopolitics and the state of our economic reality for main street Americans will never reflect in a market driven by Tech Hyperscalers who make more money when the world goes to shit.
Mindless-Mulberry404 | a month ago
Right, but the past 2 years, the numbers just dont add up with the jobs reports
Also, the market itself doesnt make sense, its like the same 4 stocks keeping it up?
burnthatburner1 | a month ago
what do you mean by that?
Microtom_ | a month ago
You don't understand what the market is.
It's two things. It's a casino where people chase price momentum. And it's a way for the wealthy to extort consumers. Existing wealth is purchases and the owns demand a premium for access under the threat of being force to unnecessarily replace that wealth.
The first reason means that the stock market can go up simply because it was previously going up. The second reason means that there's always a reason to buy and hold.
fx2600 | a month ago
You can't even come up with a coherent theory
SleepingCod | a month ago
Why are you surprised? The economy is already running on 20%.
We only need 20% of people with money and employment to keep this ship afloat. The k shaped economy and what have yous.
bloodontherisers | a month ago
As far as I can tell the market will never crash because there is just so much investment through various means now. 401Ks, 403Bs, 529s, IRAs, Roth IRAs, etc. all put the money of ordinary people into the market constantly, so until the amounts from those start to decrease (sometime after the population stops growing) the market will basically always trend upward. Wall Street may get spooked occasionally and things will drop a bit, but every regard over on WSB is in to buy the dip, and so is every fund manager trying to get his clients a good ROI.
mottledmussel | a month ago
Retirement accounts make up about 40% of the stock market. That's an enormous amount of investments essentially being bought on autopilot.
TheHomersapien | a month ago
The stock market reflects the economy. Americans will not stop spending. Yes, they moan, whine, and complain, but no, they won't put their wallets away.
I'm shocked that you or anyone else is shocked by this. Go to a mall recently? Wal mart? Buy anything expensive, whether luxury or not? Even the orange rapist moron's national sales tax on imports hasn't slowed us down. Borrow, spend, borrow...repeat.
Open_Climate_3760 | a month ago
People on Reddit also fundamentally don’t understand how MASSIVE and long-lasting the impacts of COVID era mortgages will be on consumers. Fully 47% of American households do not have a mortgage at all or are below 4% interest on their mortgage.
Every other person you interact with has no rent or a 40-50% discount every month. That’s a lot of discretionary spending available to consumers.
Emergency-Style7392 | a month ago
The median american has discretionary spending in like top 10% of western europeans, and that's a shitload of money and peopl3
CauliflowerDaffodil | a month ago
In our case, we were able to shave off half the length of our mortgage and went from 4.90% FR to 2.35%FR with our monthly payment going up by just $180. Just with the interest savings alone, we were able to buy another investment property.
dust4ngel | a month ago
> The stock market reflects the economy
true but misleading. you can have a bull market during high unemployment, e.g. if there's plenty of money to be made off of a handful of super wealthy workers lucky enough to be working.
cpudude30k | a month ago
The top 10% of earners are driving 50% of consumer spending.
We're in a K shaped economy.
Those at the top are having a blast, everyone else is just getting by or not even that.
Mundane_Log_7169 | a month ago
Wasn’t it said that younger generations don’t see a point in saving because they will never own a home? They rather spend on travel and experiences. That’s why Coachella and concert tickets are the prices they are. The future is bleak so spend money and enjoy life while you can.
Petrichordates | a month ago
I mean that's just basic fiscal irresponsibility. Perceptions aren't reality, and that's moreso true today than probably ever before.
Stompnutz | a month ago
The stock market reflects the vibes that the wealthy are feeling
"Go to a mall recently?" No. "Wal mart?" No. "Buy anything expensive, whether luxury or not?" No.
sPoonamus | a month ago
The age of smuggling cheaper options or making our own at home is long gone. It worked for us during the revolution through WWII but that kind of market doesn’t exist anymore with a global economy. Of course we are spending what money we do have. I can’t eat the numbers on my phone screen.
Bluestreaked | a month ago
Because they think they can just manipulate the market forever and it’s never going to crash, when in reality they’re just making the potential energy of the crash build up more and more
blindollie | a month ago
November right after midterms, it's booked already
Mindless-Mulberry404 | a month ago
Would make complete sense
kosk11348 | a month ago
It's because everyone's retirement funds are tied to the stock market now. We can't take that money out, so it will continue to artificially prop up the market right up until the moment we all lose everything.
HumorAccomplished611 | a month ago
why? Less jobs means no rate hike. The multi hundred billion dollar loans to build data centers can be refinanced at a lower rate thus freeing up money.
LongLiveStaceyKing | a month ago
The modern economy has borrowed from the mobile gaming economic model and only goes after whales now. So when you see things like airlines overhauling jets to make more luxury seating or tickets to sporting events going for astronomical prices, know that you (and I) are not the target customers.
The market itself has been bolstered over the decades through the death of pension programs and the rise of 401k investment. These passive investors, (read: everyone with a 401K at their job) are not actively trading based on the news, but rather setting up their account and forgetting about it for the next 20-40 years while continuously pumping money in to the market funds they chose within the first 30 days of employment every paycheck regardless of the newscycle.
These two things on their own are not enough to explain the market's inexplicable non-reaction to the turmoil faced by the majority of the working class, but when taken together explain a big chunk of what is keeping the market afloat.
-XanderCrews- | a month ago
5 guys have as much money as the rest of us. It’s all a lie and a joke on us. They can make the market say whatever they want.
Oceanbreeze871 | a month ago
MY CEO pats himself on the back at how quickly he was able to do a turnaround from barely break even to profitable. Never mentions how he laid off 20% of the company and closed offices 8 months ago.
So yeah he ruined lots of lives, and Sales didn’t increase at all. Less overhead spend. Everybody leftover is miserable and overworked
Legally_a_Tool | a month ago
A circular centibillion dollar financing scheme between tech giants has a way of inflating the stock market.
getwhirleddotcom | a month ago
I know it’s easy to blame a boogie man but that’s literally not how it works.
Emergency-Style7392 | a month ago
The market has been pumping if you remove these companies as well.
cruzer86 | a month ago
Stocks are priced on corporate earnings, not employment statistics
EatsRats | a month ago
Poor numbers decrease likelihood of rate hikes.
Prestigious-Cup-4239 | a month ago
You have to consider all the stuff that is happening that is deliberately not being advertised. The biggest military in the world is currently spraying a firehose of money at the defense and technology industries in an effort to pivot into drone and AI integrated warfare, WHILE FIGHTING IRAN. That kind of massive military spend is particularly good for the stock market because the law typically requires procurement to go to US outfits.
yoooooooooooo | a month ago
The job data being bad means it is less likely the fed increases interest rates, which is good for companies on the S&P 500.
Dazzling-Rub-8550 | a month ago
The Wall Street elite have a direct line to Bessent, Kushner et al, so they are trading based on inside info as well as the ability to manipulate the news and markets with zero accountability from a defanged SEC and corrupt DOJ. At some point, they will do the rug pull and make out like bandits.
thesouthdotcom | a month ago
If you strip out the top tech companies, the market is flat. Those same tech companies are feeding on the same funding they pay each other in a big circle. I’ve seen it described as “incestuous.” Once the AI bubble pops it’s over.
DiskSalt4643 | a month ago
The numbers make sense if ppl are dumping 10-20% of their checks into 401(k)s and IRAs AND a lot of dark money needs a home that cant be taken by their home govts/the law.
adidasbdd | a month ago
The overall market has been pumping pretty much all gains to the top 10% who have nowhere else to put their money but the stock market. They can afford to keep the party going much longer than it should, but it will fall much harder when they have to liquidate.
shadeandshine | a month ago
They’re all in it together because everyone is leveraged to the nine. It’s the reason so mane car repossessions and home defaults are on pause cause they legitimately don’t know what do to with the assets and if they repossess it just become a maintenance expense
Dilapidated_girrafe | a month ago
Rich people keep making money due to Trump manipulating the stocks.
spaghettiking216 | a month ago
Bad jobs report raises odds of a rate cut, which the markets like
Resurgo_DK | a month ago
They don’t make sense to average_joe_American _001… the reason why the markets aren’t reacting is because rich people already expected these kinds of numbers knowing what trump’s policies would do.
Take a look at bls numbers yourself from Biden’s presidency till now, trump has a LOT of negative jobs numbers, but the rich people that play the stock market knew it was going to happen, so it wasn’t a surprise so stocks kept going up.
The rich are at best complicit and at worse actively hoping for all this.
flyingasian2 | a month ago
The numbers don’t need to make sense, passive investing bolsters the market because people buy into these funds regardless of conditions.
Intelligent-Pear-783 | a month ago
Trump just launched his subscription based api trading service, so not surprised it continues to climb. The crash will be epic.
QuesoMeHungry | a month ago
It’s still riding high on AI hopium. The fuel will run out sometime soon.
WallaceCorpPC | a month ago
High unemployment is much better for share holders than low unemployment
braumbles | a month ago
I've been hearing about a pending market crater since Obama was president. At this point barring another pandemic I'm starting to doubt we'll see another crash.
S_Belmont | a month ago
A lot of people in grownup, important jobs believe debt and deficit are just abstract ideas that don't matter in practice. Not because they're smart, just greedy and short sighted.
LetsGetPenisy69 | a month ago
People like you said the market was overvalued at every new all-time high since 2016.
Reddit has such a massive hate boner for anything that might make Trump look good. Wall Street doesn’t give a shit who is president, and neither do I - the market has basically put people who invested heavily and didn’t listen to the noise in an amazing position if you look at 2016 through today.
The-Magic-Sword | a month ago
The alternative is stuffing the money under your mattress and losing out on both the gains until it does crash (which puts you in the same position as the people who predicted 2008, dropped out of the market, and then lost money because of how fast they jumped) and then trying to time the market against high expected inflation if the federal government tries to print their way out of the debt problem. A lot of the companies being held onto will probably try to pay dividends to buoy their prices in the event of a downturn, which makes being invested a hedge, rather than a liability.
austinwiltshire | a month ago
So far propped up by retail
tatertotmagic | a month ago
I halted adding money to the market other than retirement accounts since last year. Instead putting money into HYSA waiting for some sort of correction
OffalSmorgasbord | a month ago
I read the other day that Private Equity has ~30,000 companies locked up with $5 to $6 trillion(on paper) tied up. They can't find buyers because all of the "efficiency gutting" has already been done and their Limited Partners demand unrealistic returns.
Next bailout incoming and we still won't get any transparency with the funds. The theory of Beneficial Ownership and AML is such a joke when it comes to these PE's.
hooligan045 | a month ago
AI bubble
Significant-Land-716 | a month ago
Job loss is bullish for this stock market. It raises the odds that the Fed will either cut rates or hold them steady, which means that businesses will have a greater chance of being able to borrow money for cheaper.
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
I get that, it just fucks everybody more in the long run.
Significant-Land-716 | a month ago
Yup. But the shareholders don’t care because they’ll be fine 🤷♂️
Sommern | a month ago
“ Après moi, le déluge” - Louis XV
After me, the flood
origami_bluebird | a month ago
Close, Job loss is bullish because it increases earnings. Stocks are a reflection of earnings, not the strength of the economy and fed rate effects are overstated when corporations ability to borrow is based on the strength of their balance sheet.
The Fed giving a 25 bps rate reduction don't mean shit compared to the ability to cut 10,000 jobs from your payroll due to AI productivity gains (which is reality despite people denying AI the productivity gains are undeniable)
Trick-Interaction396 | a month ago
Everyone who has extra money is putting it into the market to hedge against inflation. It’s no longer about fundamentals.
DjCyric | a month ago
It wont. The stock market rallied today on the news of a terrible jobs report. The stock market is by the wealthy and for the wealthy. The rest of us are struggling with inflationary pricing.
PatchyWhiskers | a month ago
"good news! Payroll costs reduced"
alex88- | a month ago
It rallies on bad jobs because that means Fed will reduce interest rates -> incentivizes capex -> companies hire more.
Everything is cyclical, and in this case the intentional role of the Fed.
gocountgrainsofrice | a month ago
You are free to invest as well, no?
DjCyric | a month ago
Yes. I am free to invest and have been for many years. That being said when the wealthy own basically all of the assets, saying that im free to invest ignores the wealth disparity already out there. Thr richest 1% of Americans already own 50% of all stocks in the market. As we continue to see more tax cuts for the wealthy for years to come, this divide will only get worse.
Daily-Lizard | a month ago
One has to have money to invest. When you’re only just scraping by, you don’t invest. I think your question was in bad faith though, so not like my response will matter. :)
slo1111 | a month ago
I think it highlights the often cited K shape of the economy. AI, consumer spending of the top 50% is powering it through.
Can the lower bit of the K where consumer is struggling cause the greater credit markets to dry up? I imagine it can go on quite a bit longer.
Aggravating-Bet-607 | a month ago
Crap jobs report = stocks go up. Gives Kev & the Fed bois another reason to not to raise rates.
livefromheaven | a month ago
Just ask Claude to fix the economy
janethefish | a month ago
We just need to decamp from the middle east and accept Iran is getting tolls.
Redd411 | a month ago
while I agree that it's all vibe casino these days.. you have $500bil pension fund/hedge fund/etc where else would you move the money to?? for better or worse everybody has money in the ponzi scheme as there's no alternatives
bselite | a month ago
The AI bubble is pushing stocks up along with general optimism across the board for now, plus some numbers in certain sectors aren't terrible.
Another thing is not every industry needs as many people now to achieve the same goals. So people being fired and unemployment can be seen as a positive for many public companies as investors simply see less payroll and more profits without any change to the fundaments. This doesn't mean it's great for either side long-term, but for now this is part of the reason stocks are staying high.
WSBiden | a month ago
The stock market isn’t an indicator of the overall economy, it’s an indicator of the economy for the wealthy. The wealthy are doing spectacular and the stock market reflects that.
weluckyfew | a month ago
> this idea that everything is great
I don't know that trader's think everything is great - I think a lot of them know the crash is coming but also know they can make an asston of money before it happens. They're confident in their ability to get out before things go to shit....we'll see if they're right. I mean, in a crash there's always a lot of people left holding the bag.
ColbysHairBrush_ | a month ago
Remind me again what its called when we have high inflation and high unemployment (on our way)
Appropriate_Formal64 | a month ago
I believe it’s called a Melancholy…
adoodas | a month ago
In this world bad means good! And good sometimes means bad but usually good!
JuryOpposite5522 | a month ago
I was living in the Detroit suburbs in 2007 and all the shops were closing up. I moved to the Chicago suburbs and the party continued for another year. Matket indicators diverged for at least 8 months before it started showing in the indexes.
TrueClassicTease | a month ago
Stocks looooove a bad jobs report
GurProfessional9534 | a month ago
They _are_ reflecting reality. The decrease in jobs means the Fed won’t have room to raise interest rates. This risk was already priced in so now the market can rise relative to where it was. This is all logical.
colcardaki | a month ago
And these are the cooked books! Imagine how bad things actually are!
Narrow-Business302 | a month ago
Bad job numbers mean more pressure for interest rate cuts.
Substantial_Coat_229 | a month ago
Nah
Speedstick2 | a month ago
American companies make half if not more than half of their profits outside the USA. KFC is pretty much all China. Microsoft makes more than half of its profits from international sales.
TheRealTexasGovernor | a month ago
Worry not, Trump will simply announce that Iran will sign a peace agreement and stocks will skyrocket apropos of nothing.
ScienceGeeker | a month ago
Bad job report = lower interest rates = easier to borrow.
veilwalker | a month ago
The stock market is not allowed to crash until the demand for the Epstein files reaches a crescendo again. Then alone shall the stock market be allowed to crash to bury the demand for the Epstein files.
So say we all!
It’s almost like the whole thing is rigged. 🤬
oblongsimplex | a month ago
Stock prices do reflect reality.
RevenueStimulant | a month ago
The stock market isn’t the economy, and I’m not parking my money in bonds or a damn savings account with current rates of return.
The stock market only doesn’t make sense right now to young broke people who don’t understand what it’s actually like managing significant savings.
Families aren’t going to be calling their advisors to rip money out of the markets because of a damn jobs report.
aeon-one | a month ago
Well at least in the last few hours many stocks are rising because supposedly more people without jobs means the Fed is less likely to increase interest rate, which means more money would enter the market.
LegDayDE | a month ago
Stock prices are just a big circle-jerk for the "rich" (I.e. people who have enough to contribute to their 401k monthly and upwards in terms of richness)
The market is framed as a perpetual growth machine, and everyone is piling money in every month. It takes something really catastrophic to derail that.. and I think the AI bubble will pop at some point when they can't fulfil all the obligations they made to each other and their suppliers.
thewimsey | a month ago
> (I.e. people who have enough to contribute to their 401k monthly and upwards in terms of richness)
That's 60% of the population.
SmartPatientInvestor | a month ago
Stock prices are (or should be) driven by earnings, and earnings are insanely good right now. Like maybe too good
ixid | a month ago
The AI Enron (AIron?) bubble is going to crash so hard, the cracks are showing.
einulfr | a month ago
You done messed up, A-I-ron!
ixid | a month ago
Isn't it AIronic, don't you think? It's like paaaaiiinnn on your vesting day.
horseman5K | a month ago
The stock market is not the economy. This is the most basic, most repeated fact about the stock market.
kananishino | a month ago
Is this shock in the room with us right now? The market is basically pushing to all the time high still This report just means the fed is less likely to raise rates.
Upstairs_Baby8424 | a month ago
Anybody that’s in the job hunt or even just slightly unhappy with their job and looking around knows this job market is horrific unless you’re in healthcare.
kananishino | a month ago
Yes the job market is horrific right now. What Wall Street perceives it as is a different story.
OK_x86 | a month ago
They probably don't think that jobs really has as much of an impact on the broader economy. The K shaped recover has meant increasingly that the high and ultra high net worth individuals are more than compensating for the reduction in spending from the middle and bottom.
What this says about their view of the economy is frankly bleak.
Thom0 | a month ago
What is reality to you? The numbers being reported by a small club of people, or the life you live and experience?
-whis | a month ago
This is an economics sub right? When the fuck did anecdotes become evidence?
Furthermore, stocks != economy so why does it matter what Wall Street is pricing in?
This sub is not an economics sub by any stretch of the imagination and hasn’t been for a long time
Sl1m_Charles | a month ago
Its an absolute shitshow tbh. Im no Alan greenspan but this was my major in college and the lack of basic understanding is exhausting.
And then you have people who sound like they know what they're talking about spouting absolute nonsense.
kananishino | a month ago
Well the life I live and experience is way different than what the numbers report. But I understand that what I have doesn't mean everybody else does.
-worryaboutyourself- | a month ago
I have never wanted to be in healthcare but at 44 I am thinking about going back to school for nursing. At least by the time I graduated I’d have 20 years left to make decent money. I have a bachelors and make 54k a year. It’s awful.
Biggest-Benjamin | a month ago
Yah I’m 29 and I also have a bachelor’s and can’t get enough hours at my part time job to even think about surviving on my own. I can’t find anyone offering decent health insurance willing to hire more people right now that need training. It’s an absolute joke and nightmare out here right now. If it wasn’t for my parents fully supporting me I would either be homeless or dead right now. Shit is AWFUL right now.
adotar | a month ago
The issue is that quite literally everyone is going to nursing bc it’s a ticket to the middle class. It has pushed competition for spots WAY up And will flood the industry in a couple years bringing wages down making it not worth it. I say this bc I’m in tech and looked into nursing and literally would not get accepted anywhere. The competition is insane.
theriskybusinesscar | a month ago
The fuck are you on about? We are still in a nursing shortage; the market never recovered from a massive amount of RNs leaving the profession over how they were treated during COVID.
The-Magic-Sword | a month ago
Demand for elder care is also going to rise on an ongoing basis for a while yet.
CookieCacti | a month ago
OP isn’t contradicting that. There’s a shortage now, but with the large amount of people currently flocking to nursing and other medically-adjacent roles, it’s only reasonable to assume the field will become more competitive in the future due to the influx of available candidates.
The same exact thing happened with computer science majors; there was a major demand and low supply for tech workers, it became one of the most popular and “safe” majors for high schoolers and career changers alike, and then the influx of graduates finally outpaced demand, resulting in an extremely competitive tech job market. You can say “it’s different” for the medical field due to the extra layers of required certifications and limited residency spots, but if there’s truly a dire shortage, those employment requirements will likely be eased. Tech companies stopped requiring 4 year degrees for prospective employees during the tech worker shortage, and now that requirement is back in place since supply met demand.
The influx of prospective workers probably wont be felt for at least the next 5-8 years, or maybe even 10, but it will become apparent at some point in the future if the enrollment trend continues. It’s the same “learn to code” initiative tech had, just on a far broader scale with a far lengthier oversaturation timeline.
Apprehensive-Test577 | a month ago
I’m in healthcare. In the past 25 years I’ve never had a problem acquiring a job in my field. This last time around it took me three months to just get an interview. I was eventually offered that position and accepted it, even though it will be a 45 minute commute both ways.
Hospitals and other healthcare facilities are tightening their belts too, and healthcare positions are harder to obtain. Having a lot of experience can actually hurt you because they don’t want to pay you for it.
TiberiusCornelius | a month ago
I went back to school and graduated a year ago, and have been looking for a "real" job since.....and nothing. Tuesday was exactly 15 months since I graduated and not a bite.
And even earlier this year, I lost my food service job and where usually that stuff is a super fast turnaround and I've never once had an issue with going from one job to another in the retail/food space (and to be clear I'm not at all a job hopper) it took me a little over 2 months before I started my current job and I was on unemployment, because even that retail/food hiring had slowed down. Even just listings are down.
duckbonez | a month ago
I’m in the corporate side of healthcare and it’s still pretty bad.
MidnightGloomy7016 | a month ago
Where I am at in particular: Remodeled units, hired new supervisors, hired new education roles, paid bonuses to inexperienced nurses to staff remodeled unit....
Sure doesn't seem bad. They have enough money to make more management and support jobs. It doesn't make sense to me.
CornFedIABoy | a month ago
How many times does it have to be explained that the stock market is not the economy?
kananishino | a month ago
Look at what the headline is suggesting
So_HauserAspen | a month ago
All praise the DOW
Long live the shareholders
psychohistorian8 | a month ago
possibly dumb question, but isn't this kind of a good thing?
If I lose my job tomorrow at least I know my stock portfolio is growing and can be used as a source of funds
SidewaysFancyPrance | a month ago
I don't even know what's happening anymore. My company announced earnings this quarter (which are always solid) and this is the first time the stock went up right after. It always drops on good earnings.
Maybe that's my signal, like the shoe-shine story. But nobody wants to get out of the market right now, and even when I want to, something holds me back.
adeniumlover | a month ago
Good data -> economy good stonk go up.
Bad data -> rate cut stonk go up.
fungi43 | a month ago
Fuck yeah, dude. If we had millions of job losses, even better.
drama_rolyat | a month ago
By reacts, do we mean it hits another all time high?
With the way things are going, the thing that appears to cancel out facts is a post from Trump saying the opposite.
“Them job losses are the Mexicans getting deported”. -probably Trump
SnooCauliflowers3235 | a month ago
Did you even say thank you?
bomilk19 | a month ago
I doubt that he’s even wearing a suit, let alone holding any cards of import!
bomilk19 | a month ago
Why do you hate winning?
surprise-mailbox | a month ago
Would someone mind putting the text of the article into a comment? I do not have CNBCPro
Apparently my comment must contain at least 140 characters, ok now we’re there. Thanks!
hedahedaheda | a month ago
Have these companies not been laying off like crazy despite their record stock prices and profits?
How is this job report a shock? Even if there are job available and ready to hire, people can’t get past the AI screening tools. The system is so beyond broken.
awesome-alpaca-ace | a month ago
I got 3 offers after I graduated. In the tech industry no less.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
I usually reserve "horrendous" for pretty serious recessions, but the Trump economy has been "meh" at best.
Inflation running almost consistently above 3%, with some readings reaching 4%.
Jobs reports that are just poor. For instance, prior to COVID, we were averaging about 2 million new employees (nonfarm) per year. 2023 was 2.1 million, 2024 was 1.3 million. 2025 was 164,000. That's right. 164,000. We are at 266,000 through July.
Policy choices; tariffs, trade wars, another forever Middle Eastern war; all of these are depressing economic outcomes.
Q2 GDP was 1.5%; this is when companies are spending an obscene amount of investment money on AI buildouts, with the world's first trillionaire being appointed; we should be booming (>4%, in my estimation).
These come among some of the highest real wage growth trends we've seen in decades, during an AI buildout that should be leading to an economic boom, etc.
gentlewaterboarding | a month ago
Just the tariffs and middle eastern war are world recession material. And we didn’t even elect him.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
Eh. Even the most pessimistic of the budgeting models didn’t find much reduction in growth and employment from tariffs.
The oil cost shock from Iran? Absolutely; and it took a hell of a lot of SPR drawdowns everywhere to even mitigate it so far. If it continues, it absolutely is a trigger.
Greatest-Comrade | a month ago
Oil prices are HEAVILY leaning on the SPR and China’s equivalent. Once those exhaust then shit will hit the fan.
Ada_Kaleh22 | a month ago
I happened to be watching the jobs numbers carefully in 2007-2008, and as a result was not surprised (although was also not prepared) by the recession. The depth of it, ok, but I did see it coming from those years of mid numbers.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
Prime age LFPR had fallen a few years before (with at best a mild recovery). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060#
LFPR was stagnant (falling now, but its retirements mostly). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART#
There’s also pretty robust wage growth.
I have a hard time seeing 2007-2009. But the labor market certainly isn’t booming; it’s meh. With warning signs.
Ada_Kaleh22 | a month ago
back then there were additional workers coming in, they thought the war would goose the economy and they pushed down interest rates.
we don't have the housing crisis like then, but we don't not have a housing crisis.
so overall I agree, we've seen the economy hold up well through a lot of tough times recently.
i guess the triggers here would be the ever-increasing debt matched with high inflation. Along with the bizarre swings from tariffs/oil prices.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
If we had voted in an orange traffic cone instead of Trump, this economy would be humming.
I think you can pretty easily point to a recession during Trump 2.0 as caused by policy.
Ada_Kaleh22 | a month ago
yeah, thanks for saying it.
but worse, because if a crisis hits who knows what he will do
but if we're really lucky the midterms could help a lot, in theory help a whole lot.
at least he will face pushback
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
We’ve been lucky this has been a dysfunctional Congressional seating.
But yeah. I’m hoping for a solid midterms, though I’m nervous about the DS candidates…
Ada_Kaleh22 | a month ago
they are the least of our problems at this point. besides, the conservatives have shown themselves to be completely unable to manage the economy.
erath_droid | a month ago
> I’m nervous about the DS candidates…
Nervous about them getting in and implementing their policies or nervous about them spoiling elections and letting the Rs keep their grip on power?
McGrupp1979 | a month ago
Robust Wage growth? It really seems like wages are stagnant this year and I could have sworn I read that as well.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
In 2026 so far, hovering between 3.5 and 3.9%.
https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/wage-growth-tracker
Edit: and by robust, I had been talking about 2019-2025. 2026 is TBD.
barkinginthestreet | a month ago
With regard to #2, working age EPOP is still over 80%. Hard for me to say the labor economy is that bad when that is the case and the unemployment rate is so low. I'm not sure we even have the demographics to sustain 6 figure job gains unless we put all the grandmas back to work.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
Fair point. HOWEVER...we were over 80% prior to COVID, and have been over post-COVID. In fact, we've been >83% since 2023 (with the prior numbers).
So, I'm not too sure we can't attribute it to this (either exclusively or even a major component).
Labor Force Participation Rate - 25-54 Yrs. (LNS11300060) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
pugwalker | a month ago
I’m sorry but you’re not qualified to opine on the labor market if you aren’t going to even mention immigration… by far the biggest factor in the slowdown.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
lol. Ok, child.
DisneyPandora | a month ago
I agree, if you want to blame inflation and high grocery prices, blame Joe Biden. His 2 trillion dollar stimulus is why things are so expensive and is why he was unpopular among his party.
Zerix_Albion | a month ago
You do realize, Trump had a 2.2 Trillion dollar stimulus the year before called the CARES act. The next year Biden passed the American rescue plan, which was a 1.9 Trillion dollar stimulus.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
You think u/DisneyPandora is interested in facts?
This pussy ain’t coming back.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
Oh, sweetie. Yes, the COVID era Biden fiscal stimulus was a major cause of inflation. In 2022 and 2023.
The fact that you can say Biden for the current inflation makes me wish that your parents opted for one of those post-birth abortions you dildos go on and on about.
It’s all Trump. All of it.
EconomistWithaD | a month ago
You may just want to stick to talking about TV shows.
You are out of your depth on adult topics.
Ssshizzzzziit | a month ago
And then the Dow Jones shot up, because of course it did. I've heard it many times, half the earth could be carved off. Zombie hordes could be maurading through the streets and the Dow would be up 500pts.
DiligentAd7956 | a month ago
The employment figures over the past two years have severely overstated the market's strength. Revisions erased nearly one million previously reported jobs, revealing that employment growth has actually flatlined.
Fragrant_Entry9232 | a month ago
The stock market is extremely overvalued, pe ratios are sky high. If it wasnt for the tariff refunds stolen from the tariff payer, us, and gifted to some of these companies things would be even worse.
thecodeofsilence | a month ago
So to that end, why did the markets rally today on overvalued stocks and a shitty jobs report?
Everything you said was true, yet markets went UP today—on a major jobs miss.
I don’t get it.
hypekit | a month ago
Bad jobs = no rate hike = stonks go up
Too good jobs = maybe rate hike = stonks go down
Fragrant_Entry9232 | a month ago
Do you know nothing from Warren buffet and munger? They have restated thr famous warning by economist John Maynard Keynes: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
the_millenial_falcon | a month ago
Why is this a surprise to absolutely anyone? Corporations have been laying off people in droves and anecdotally the job market is a nightmare.
karbaayen | a month ago
Trump and the “republican” policies have absolutely destroyed the US economy. Most don’t realize it’s a dead man walking. Here in Canada, we just added 75,000 jobs in July and our unemployment rate is the lowest in 2 years.
Imfatinreallife | a month ago
Canada took the easy route and imported half of India. 75,000 is nothing.
061826heart | a month ago
Wall Street and broader economy are just entirely different things now.
It’s very similar to comparing the zoo and the great outdoors. Animals in captivity don’t behave the same way in the wild. I’ll let you all figure out which is the zoo and which is the wild between 18 Broad Street, Manhattan and Main Street, USA.
Elegant-Lawfulness25 | a month ago
It should be mentioned that July was a good jobs report month for Canada. Not that the trade war was the only economic factor but the two economies are linked and policy does matter.
BigvalBROski | a month ago
I thought we were supposed to keep cash on the sidelines and wait for the crash?…. the market has exploded and people are making money hand over fist while all the holders just sit and wait….. were we duped?
davidw223 | a month ago
Yes. As the old adage goes, “time in the market beats timing the market.”
throwaway00119 | a month ago
I’m gonna assume this is sarcasm.
im_a_goat_factory | a month ago
Only people without much common sense have kept their money out of the market
BlueRoller | a month ago
Let me know when you buy
maskedmarvel199 | a month ago
Who ever said to keep cash on the sidelines? There's a mountain of evidence that shows timing the market doesn't work.
scolbert08 | a month ago
Redditors constantly say this shit
Jacqueline_Hiide | a month ago
Yeah probably. On average the market goes up so just buy a little bit whenever you get paid and check in 1-4 times a year.
CauliflowerDaffodil | a month ago
If you're a doomer, keep your money under your mattress for as long as you want. The rest of are riding this bullet train and enjoying the ride. See you on the other side if/when you get there.
drawkbox | a month ago
It is all manipulation and when that is going on you gotta stay in.
Standby_fire | a month ago
This will un doubtedly be corrected / increased at the revision date. Also most likely spark a call for less reporting as past un favorable reporting has led to.
Johnnadawearsglasses | a month ago
You mean the market that's up today? What is the shock exactly? I feel like sensationalism in markets journalism isn't exactly productive. But yeah. Not good.
-whis | a month ago
Bunch of people in this sub that can’t comprehend the economy does not equal stock markets.
Hell, theres a reason the only posts that get comments here relate to some vague picture of a trading view chart on a 15m time frame or an annoyingly biased article.
Before I get downvoted, Trump is a dingus along with the rest of his cronies - never voted for him.
But why are we associating economic figures with the stock market when in the long run, they tend to be sparsely correlated at best.
Yes the job market sucks, but that does not discount the Mag 7 Capex that realizes as smaller company profits who are building out the AI supply chain.
$100 put into NVDA is not the same as $100 put into the 400th company in a market weighted index.
You’d think this sub would understand that, but here we are thinking that a bad jobs print should tank the market 10%.
MarcooseOnTheLoose | a month ago
I don’t know if we’re saying the same thing with different wording. The stock market hasn’t been correlated with ‘real life’ in years, perhaps since the financial crisis of 2007-2010. High unemployment, high inflation, Covid, Russian invasion of Ukraine, US war against Iran, negative oil prices, $120 barrel, tariffs, supply chain disruption, massive corporate bailouts, massive debt, you name it, the stock market goes through a correction and bounces back even stronger. It’s on an ever-expanding bubble. Go figure. Are we saying the same thing?
DadIsVeryMad | a month ago
I thank god every day that my job is really, really hard to cut loose because I'm cheaper than hiring an MSP or an Agentic bullshit helper.
ISSO's baby, we're invincible.. for now.
BlueRoller | a month ago
Lol are you? I think a junior with a $1k/mon Claude budget can fill that gap
DadIsVeryMad | a month ago
Luckily my companies CTO fucking hates AI shit so I'm steady as long as he maintains his hatred.
BlueRoller | a month ago
Haha foster that
Olmsted77 | a month ago
But market goes up.
Seems like the new norm is: negative economic data->fed will lower or maintain rates->market has a good day
It has happened for long enough now for this to be a trend. It’s like an addict getting a hint that they may get a hit.
fizzybrain | a month ago
Wall street doesnt care about main street, expext nothing to happen because of this report. The consumer no longer drives the economy so why care about him?
vertigo3pc | a month ago
Only 4 months of Trump's Presidency have they revised the previously reported numbers higher than initially reported. Every other month has been revised down. Only 1 month in 2024 had a positive revision; all others were negative as well.
This is a problem since Biden's Administration, and with the gutting of the BLS and lack of new approach to calculating actual unemployment (people who want to work, but cannot find work, including people who work gig economy work in attempts to make ends meet).
I_Fuck_Whales | a month ago
Market is +0.60% today. Wall Street must find it so horrendous… Come on… market is gonna keep ripping along so long as all this inflation keeps up and tech remains hot.
Things aren’t as bad as the internet would have you believe.
burnthatburner1 | a month ago
The market is up because a bad jobs report means less chance of a rate hike. Not because things are fine.
RealisticForYou | a month ago
Consumers keep spending money while wage inflation is at 4% YOY...job changers at 7%. Banks have reported low default rates as consumers continue to pay mortgages and credit cards.
Businesses will slow spending until post November as the playing field becomes clearer. This cycle has been with us for decades and this November will determine how much power he will lose.
Businesses aren't stupid. Why won't spend money until you know what next year will look like.
burnthatburner1 | a month ago
>Businesses will slow spending until post November as the playing field becomes clearer. This cycle has been with us for decades and this November will determine how much power he will lose.
>Businesses aren't stupid. Why won't spend money until you know what next year will look like.
What are you imagining the business mindset being here? You think companies are going to increase spending/hiring if the GOP does better than expected in the election? If so, why?
RealisticForYou | a month ago
GOP better than expected? lol…no don’t think so.
There is a long list of changes that can occur, if you listen to political news.
For one example…If the GOP loses at least one chamber, the “No Wars Act” may have legs to pass. Congress could put a stop to this war in Iran which could prevent a world wide economic catastrophe. This war is illegal while just about every GOP member hates it but does not have the balls to stop it.
“The No War through Reconciliation Act prevents Congress from abusing that process to fund an unauthorized war. Since this war began, 6,000 people have died, including 1,701 civilians, over 254 children and at least 13 U.S. Service Members.”
Also, if the Dems win back even “The House” there will be more probing into Caligula and his finances. This week, Capital One Bank announced they had closed Caligula‘s bank account due to claims of money laundering.
https://www.npr.org/2026/08/02/g-s1-136834/capital-one-trump-bank-anti-money-laundering
A few months back, I heard Caligula ask his supporters to vote during midterms. He said if he loses support he thinks he will be impeached…. and, this time the rest of the Epstein files will be exposed as the head of committees will be Democrat controlled.
And the list goes on…and on.
Consumers and businesses are watching this data as both need relief from high gas prices and inflation. And if this war continues it will only get worse as winter months are around the corner when gas and oil will be needed the most. There could be major shifts in policies after midterms that could affect money and politics.
burnthatburner1 | a month ago
So you’re suggesting that business hiring will spike if Dems do better than expected?
Just trying to distill your point, which still escapes me.
RealisticForYou | a month ago
Who’s to say. It depends what The House and The Senate plan to do to help consumers and businesses. Consumer spending is 70% of the U.S. economy. If Congress can find financial relief for consumers, businesses may become more confident to hire again.
I hear interviews with business leaders. Many say they would like to hire but have no confidence to do so, especially if the threat of inflation could cause interest rates to spike, which will increase business loan costs. Seems like everything is riding on the outcome of this war. Dems will fight for this war to end if they have more control and more voting power.
RealisticForYou | a month ago
And here is more crazy data that Congress can fight for.
Currently, oil tankers are taking crazy routes out of the Mideast to transport oil. One major route is through the Panama Canal. I heard today that the Panama Canal moves ships by using fresh water. Unfortunately, with a constant threat of South America drought, there isn’t enough water to push larger oil tankers through the canal.
This oil data doesn’t get any better. New members voted into Congress can fight for this war to end.
DJMagicHandz | a month ago
*Buying using credit.
RealisticForYou | a month ago
Like most people I haven't used cash in years. But can consumers pay off their credit debt is the real question. Time will tell.
CauliflowerDaffodil | a month ago
>Things aren’t as bad as ~~the internet~~ reddit would have you believe.
FIFO
madeapizza | a month ago
This website doesn’t like positive numbers because it disagrees with their priors. They’ve been predicting a crash due to Trump/AI/“greed” for two years now and the economy and market keeps humming.
Market up 13% YTD…
7818 | a month ago
Inflation and USD devaluation kinda make that 13% growth pretty negligible.
player89283517 | a month ago
Some of this may be seasonal. Local governments and state governments did all their layoffs around the budget cycle/fiscal year which starts July 1st. I work in local government so that’s what I personally experienced. This may (hopefully) be temporary.
RealisticForYou | a month ago
This makes sense for sure.
Long-Blood | a month ago
Once again, markets are sure the fed will continue to stimulate this disaster of an economy that cant hold itself up without big daddy government artificially manipulating its currency
amiibohunter2015 | a month ago
>Wall Street reacts to shocking July jobs loss: 'This is a pretty horrendous report'
No Shit Sherlock.
Employment prospects especially beginner jobs such as retail associate jobs are in the shitter. Jobs in various departments are as well, when you can go through a job board in under an hour you know it is bad, having real job with reputable well known companies is the only way to fix the employment prospects, adding fake jobs which happens does not solve the problem.
Low_Ability4450 | a month ago
Real signal isn’t just July’s number but it’s the change in the labor-market regime. A single month doesn’t make a recession but when the job losses replace job creation growth expectations and Fed policy can reprice very quickly. The trend is becoming increasingly concerning
AntitheistArchangel | a month ago
Could a hot inflation number next week cause the market to price in a hike in September again, or will the market still think the risk to the job market is too great?
CauliflowerDaffodil | a month ago
Lower job numbers are never good but it's not the doom most TDSers are hoping for. Most of the job losses were concentrated in government jobs, which happens every year around this time because it's seasonal, and in the leisure and hospitality sector which is due to the world Cup coming to an end.
Exile4444 | a month ago
I.... don't even know where to start