Maybe stock prices will begin to reflect reality and this idea that everything is great will meet reality in the middle and the powers that be will be forced to do something about it- because so long as the stocks keep going up, why would they?
It's a bunch of very wealthy people pumping money into stocks and a bunch of not so wealthy but still have plenty of money people not panic selling and a bunch of institutions pumping more money than anybody into these stocks.
But business spending isn’t down. Consumer spending isn’t really down holistically. Aggregate PE is elevated but not spiked. And stocks aren’t bread or eggs. “Stocks are too expensive for common folk” is a meaningless statement from a market valuation basis.
What is the actual logic in terms of the market fundamentals that say the market should crash?
Investors over leveraging themselves and making far less than their expected return. Is that going to happen? I’m leaning yes but I’m not naive enough to entirely toss out AI as a sunk cost.
I do think if/when we reach a point where we transition from “AI will make returns but not yet” to “AI is not going to make returns,” that will generate a major correction.
Most likely it will make massive returns for some and middling returns for the other, so things could just be flat for a bit because nobody wants to be the one pulling out
To add to your point, there's at least a chance that the modern stock market...just doesn't care that much about employment figures on a monthly basis. For all the talk about AI replacing people in the workforce, maybe it's replaced people as an economic indicator on the stock market.
Consumer spending isn't down because the items being purchased are more expensive. More money spent on less product/services gives a distorted picture.
Should not will. Should because it'd be good for the little guy in the long run, won't because, as others have said, so many people are into trading now that even the little guy without much money is putting his or her spare change into the markets.
I know guys who barely make $40k a year who put every spare penny they have into stocks.
They already own enough of the market for them to not have all that much to gain by buying it for less.
Besides, their money comes from stocks. If the market crashes, so does their purchasing power. They're not going to be starving, but it's not great for buying yachts either.
I know I know buy the dip. I am talking some kind of pressure on employers to improve wages and pressure on companies to refocus on affordability. It’s pie in the sky stuff.
They need to be putting that in a HYSA savings account rather than in stocks tbh.
Build that up to have coverage in case shit hits the fan. When stocks crash, that person won't have much to take out in case of job loss, medical emergencies, etc.
Yeah, exactly. This just doesn't feel sustainable. Someone will pull the plug, which will create a domino effect and then... well, we didn't *truly* recover until WW2, which took about 10 years to be realized by and large....
The country and economy would flourish if capital was spread more evenly but the wealthy and powerful can't help themselves but pillage the working class as the expense of everyone
Price to earnings ratios are much higher than historic norms. Investors are pushing up company values based on potential earnings far into the future, not based on proven consistent revenue growth. An extreme example is Tesla, technically worth more than the big 3 American manufacturers combined, yet their 2025 revenue is less than 1/5 of that collective. And that's their best year ever.
On whether the market is likely to crash, that depends on available credit for these companies to invest and keep growing. The largest tech companies have all started borrowing insane sums of money the last year or so. That makes borrowing more expensive for everyone else, there is only so much money available. And if/when interest rates increase (which is long overdue as well), a lot of companies living on free credit will no longer be competitive.
That is how the Great Depression started. Musk and what he is doing with the various companies is the direct comparison here. The further we go without a correction, the more pain there will be.
Musk has a few major companies.
Tesla stock values have been manipulated for years. Check how many times he continues to publicly discuss full self-driving. Reports came out a while back showing how Tesla was obfuscating data about how many vehicles were being sold in their quarterly reports. Tesla was caught selling its vehicles to another musk company, spacex. There is no punishment for him going on public TV and promising things that he will never deliver on.
Ai investment will cause so many companies to become insolvent and he will hide how unprofitable it is by creating shell companies and buying each other's assets. See how many times his AI company has been sold to another of his companies.
He has already been refusing to pay contractors who are building his data centers. I wonder where he got that idea?
When the party is over and the check is due, expect handouts from the government much like the 2008 crisis because his companies are "too big to fail" and it would be a "national security threat" if they would be allowed to go under. Let's ignore that the only way his companies have gotten so big is the cozying up to this administration.
It’s not the same comparison. Retail market engagement is at the highest it’s ever been, and that’s a good thing. We shouldn’t fight policy that literally incentivizes investing in the US market.
The US has a fundamental capital/income ratio problem and one major cause of the US's inflation woes is the fact that there is a huge amount of private capital which has been gradually growing over the last 30 years which has had no where to go because the economy isn't growing fast enough. It is being ejected into assets because this is the only place it can be put.
The US is currently undergoing the largest allocation of capital in recorded history. Over 50% of all venture capital in the US economy is currently being allocated to AI. Billions, and billions of USD of private capital is being pumped into the US stock market - it is all under-regulated leverage.
This is a catastrophe waiting to happen but the average person might not be as badly harmed in the long run as we might think. This isn't 2008 because the majority of the reality warping capital flows are private. It isn't household debt, or institutional lenders being over-exposed to risk. The 2008 bubble was relatively democratized in that really anyone who could get cheap credit could try their luck investing into property. This time around, it is an elite club of the top 10% throwing their money into a bubble. When it pops, they will lose their money. It won't decimate households unless they're working in AI development, or data centers.
What is going to happen next is a collapse of the US shadow banking sector which is exactly what happened in China during COVID only it was property, and not AI that triggered the collapse. This shock won't impact the average person at all unless their pension is tied into the shadow banking system. Interest rates are already high, and so long as inflation persists will remain high. AI is a bizarre problem which is going to destroy the top 10%.
The big picture question is 'why wasn't this capital allocated to housing development, infrastructure development, and jobs?' Why wasn't this money used appropriately instead of gambled at the AI-casino? This is the question policymakers should be thinking about now. Why is there more venture capital than there is GDP? How do you end up with such a fundamental problem?
This is really interesting analysis. My one quibble though, is that anyone with a 401k or a Roth IRA probably has investments in tech companies, so wouldn't that collapse still badly affect all of them?
I should qualify it by saying the AI bubble will destroy the top 10% but that this is going to be socialized through bailouts and austerity. Most Western governments would do this, but given the Trump government is intrinsically linked into the speculative bubble I would expect them to go very hard on austerity to essentially bail themselves out personally.
>My one quibble though, is that anyone with a 401k or a Roth IRA probably has investments in tech companies, so wouldn't that collapse still badly affect all of them?
Yes, this will impact them and I said that in my comment. The point I was trying to make is the risk is exceptionally high, but the overall exposure is relatively small. This isn't like 2008 when everyone could get in on the speculation.
There is a bit of a morbid trend hidden underneath all of this. Since 2008, the economy has grown so unequal and out of balance that the amount of people capable of rolling the dice is a constantly decreasing number.
I just wanted to point out that while this is the single biggest speculative bubble in history, it is a bubble to which only 10% of the population are exposed to. Sadly, another record being simultaneously broken is the 'most corrupt government in US history' category which means those scumbags are going to run austerity to the absolute max to salvage their own personal bank accounts.
You are painting an optimistic picture of an AI crash that doesn't directly affect the overall 'real' economy a la 2008, but how can we be confident that the financial system will remain solvent when/if the people that control all the capital are forced to liquidate? Are not the financial institutions heavily invested in the PE/hedge funds that are bankrolling the speculation? Or do you mean also that lending isn't a 'real' part of the economy?
And furthermore, I believe the reality is that austerity is more or less a foregone conclusion given the existing debt, persistent deficits, demographics and general can-kicking policy in the US post-Clinton. Hell we're bailing out Japan right now so we don't have to deal with our debt.
This is me. I'm not panic selling and I am continuing to invest anywhere between $75.00-$1,000 per week. I agree the numbers don't make sense though. I am keeping about $20,000 cash earmarked for a shopping spree if a crash happens. The market seems to be held up by smoke in mirrors right now.
Thanks. Yeah I am in a very fortunate position at the moment and very aware of how fortunate I am. I was not always doing this well. I'm doing everything in my power to prevent myself from ever having to live in poverty again. I am still much closer to being homeless than I am to being a billionaire.
I feel the same way. Investing still routinely, but more "safely" by using index funds instead of individual stocks. I'm also keeping cash on hand in a 4% savings account that is a 2 year safety net if everything goes catastrophic.
Yep! All my cash is in a HYSA making 4% also. You're doing better than me though. I only have 1 year of expenses in that account + the $20k that is for the stock market.
I’ve already been wiped out by unemployment last year. Got a job but someone ripped up the contract and our group gets cut in December. When will I be able to save a rainy day fund ever again?!?? My credit got toasted I ran out.
Are index funds even safe when the entire S&P is propped up by a handful of companies? I started looking into BRK-B it’s lighter on tech companies. Interestingly, it has beat VOO for the past 5 years.
Safe relative to trying to pick individual stocks. Historically they perform fairly well and have been less risk, but yes, it is too heavy.
The stock market itself isn't necessarily safe. Buffett's company has done a great job of investing in the right things, but is it sustainable now that he passed the torch?
> Are index funds even safe when the entire S&P is propped up by a handful of companies?
You can look back to 1926 and you'll find that almost all of the gains in the market came from only 4% of the stocks. Obviously not the same stocks, but it's always been the case that only a small number of stocks drive all the gains.
One of the theories for why index funds do so well is that they always own that 4%.
I'm part of that second part. Sorry, I know reddit loves to doomerism and everything is 1 second away from complete collapse but the market is the only way to consistently make money and sure it as hell beats keeping it sitting in cash under the mattress but many magnitudes
I am completely fine with that and more power to the individuals who are improving their situation through this.
I used the initial Palantir pump last year to finance my vacation. I’m not against it. Just wish the playing field was more fair to hard working blue collar folk- I am grey collared and in a cushy situation, so this isn’t a personal grievance, more of a principles thing.
You could have said this at the beginning of 2007 too. All these stock market gains only count when they're cashed out. If everyone rushes for the exit at the same time then a lot of those profits disappear quickly.
> the market is the only way to consistently make money
when you say "consistent" are you including 10-year periods where the market loses value? because arguably 10 years of losing isn't consistently winning.
Me too. Sold a lot on the few high days past couple months, setting up some stop losses after checking the futures in the middle of the night; just pecking away. Have a little pile now. 🤦♀️
Well think about. What’s more profitable? To invest in a small to medium sized business and grow some wealth that way through the lottery that is owning a business in today’s economy or throw that into so AI stonks? The last few years your return would have been better off in the market. Now I’m sure it’s not healthy that the best use of those funds is on Wall Street instead of Main Street, but that’s probably going to change now that we’ve reached peak AI.
I agree this is the knee jerk response but what's actually happening between the carry trade and inflation is the fed can't do anything which is a bit scarier.
Demographic trends don’t explain trend reversals on this short of a timeline. The rate was growing as recently as 2022/2023 and has started falling off a cliff right when trump started monkeying with the economy.
Probably mostly some combination or aging population and Covid causing more early retirements. It seems to me that LFPR for 55+ has mostly been in decline since Covid. The growth in 2022 was probably more related to Covid recovery than anything else, since the jump in 2021-2022 mirrors 25-54, and 55-65 is still working age for most people. Then the 55+ rate (annual basis) has been in decline since Jan 2023, which is too early to be caused by Trump.
P.S. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attributing this to Biden either. Just factors other than who's president and what they did.
We can get a little more nuanced than that by looking at the rate of change, rather than simply saying “down is down”. It was trending down gradually in 2023 in a way that could be explained by demographics. It’s been falling off a cliff since the tariff chaos started.
Exactly. Strange that bonds don't seem to be buying it though. I expected 10 and 20 year yields to go down but they have barely budged and are still higher than they were a few days ago.
The stock market sees bad job numbers as an indicator the Fed won’t hike rates, which it views as a positive. That’s why the market is up on this news.
It's two things. It's a casino where people chase price momentum. And it's a way for the wealthy to extort consumers. Existing wealth is purchases and the owns demand a premium for access under the threat of being force to unnecessarily replace that wealth.
The first reason means that the stock market can go up simply because it was previously going up. The second reason means that there's always a reason to buy and hold.
Paying employees is often the #1 expense for any company. A reduction of hiring due to productivity gains that we are experiencing results in higher corporate earnings.
Simple as that, a 25 bps reduction doesn't matter when these companies already can borrow at rates determined by their balance sheet strength and not the fed.
Geopolitics and the state of our economic reality for main street Americans will never reflect in a market driven by Tech Hyperscalers who make more money when the world goes to shit.
As far as I can tell the market will never crash because there is just so much investment through various means now. 401Ks, 403Bs, 529s, IRAs, Roth IRAs, etc. all put the money of ordinary people into the market constantly, so until the amounts from those start to decrease (sometime after the population stops growing) the market will basically always trend upward. Wall Street may get spooked occasionally and things will drop a bit, but every regard over on WSB is in to buy the dip, and so is every fund manager trying to get his clients a good ROI.
The stock market reflects the economy. Americans will not stop spending. Yes, they moan, whine, and complain, but no, they won't put their wallets away.
I'm shocked that you or anyone else is shocked by this. Go to a mall recently? Wal mart? Buy anything expensive, whether luxury or not? Even the orange rapist moron's national sales tax on imports hasn't slowed us down. Borrow, spend, borrow...repeat.
People on Reddit also fundamentally don’t understand how MASSIVE and long-lasting the impacts of COVID era mortgages will be on consumers. Fully 47% of American households do not have a mortgage at all or are below 4% interest on their mortgage.
Every other person you interact with has no rent or a 40-50% discount every month. That’s a lot of discretionary spending available to consumers.
In our case, we were able to shave off half the length of our mortgage and went from 4.90% FR to 2.35%FR with our monthly payment going up by just $180. Just with the interest savings alone, we were able to buy another investment property.
Wasn’t it said that younger generations don’t see a point in saving because they will never own a home? They rather spend on travel and experiences. That’s why Coachella and concert tickets are the prices they are. The future is bleak so spend money and enjoy life while you can.
true but misleading. you can have a bull market during high unemployment, e.g. if there's plenty of money to be made off of a handful of super wealthy workers lucky enough to be working.
The age of smuggling cheaper options or making our own at home is long gone. It worked for us during the revolution through WWII but that kind of market doesn’t exist anymore with a global economy. Of course we are spending what money we do have. I can’t eat the numbers on my phone screen.
MY CEO pats himself on the back at how quickly he was able to do a turnaround from barely break even to profitable. Never mentions how he laid off 20% of the company and closed offices 8 months ago.
So yeah he ruined lots of lives, and Sales didn’t increase at all. Less overhead spend. Everybody leftover is miserable and overworked
Because they think they can just manipulate the market forever and it’s never going to crash, when in reality they’re just making the potential energy of the crash build up more and more
why? Less jobs means no rate hike. The multi hundred billion dollar loans to build data centers can be refinanced at a lower rate thus freeing up money.
It's because everyone's retirement funds are tied to the stock market now. We can't take that money out, so it will continue to artificially prop up the market right up until the moment we all lose everything.
They’re all in it together because everyone is leveraged to the nine. It’s the reason so mane car repossessions and home defaults are on pause cause they legitimately don’t know what do to with the assets and if they repossess it just become a maintenance expense
They don’t make sense to average_joe_American _001… the reason why the markets aren’t reacting is because rich people already expected these kinds of numbers knowing what trump’s policies would do.
Take a look at bls numbers yourself from Biden’s presidency till now, trump has a LOT of negative jobs numbers, but the rich people that play the stock market knew it was going to happen, so it wasn’t a surprise so stocks kept going up.
The rich are at best complicit and at worse actively hoping for all this.
You have to consider all the stuff that is happening that is deliberately not being advertised. The biggest military in the world is currently spraying a firehose of money at the defense and technology industries in an effort to pivot into drone and AI integrated warfare, WHILE FIGHTING IRAN. That kind of massive military spend is particularly good for the stock market because the law typically requires procurement to go to US outfits.
The Wall Street elite have a direct line to Bessent, Kushner et al, so they are trading based on inside info as well as the ability to manipulate the news and markets with zero accountability from a defanged SEC and corrupt DOJ. At some point, they will do the rug pull and make out like bandits.
If you strip out the top tech companies, the market is flat. Those same tech companies are feeding on the same funding they pay each other in a big circle. I’ve seen it described as “incestuous.” Once the AI bubble pops it’s over.
The numbers make sense if ppl are dumping 10-20% of their checks into 401(k)s and IRAs AND a lot of dark money needs a home that cant be taken by their home govts/the law.
I've been hearing about a pending market crater since Obama was president. At this point barring another pandemic I'm starting to doubt we'll see another crash.
The modern economy has borrowed from the mobile gaming economic model and only goes after whales now. So when you see things like airlines overhauling jets to make more luxury seating or tickets to sporting events going for astronomical prices, know that you (and I) are not the target customers.
The market itself has been bolstered over the decades through the death of pension programs and the rise of 401k investment. These passive investors, (read: everyone with a 401K at their job) are not actively trading based on the news, but rather setting up their account and forgetting about it for the next 20-40 years while continuously pumping money in to the market funds they chose within the first 30 days of employment every paycheck regardless of the newscycle.
These two things on their own are not enough to explain the market's inexplicable non-reaction to the turmoil faced by the majority of the working class, but when taken together explain a big chunk of what is keeping the market afloat.
The overall market has been pumping pretty much all gains to the top 10% who have nowhere else to put their money but the stock market. They can afford to keep the party going much longer than it should, but it will fall much harder when they have to liquidate.
I halted adding money to the market other than retirement accounts since last year. Instead putting money into HYSA waiting for some sort of correction
I read the other day that Private Equity has ~30,000 companies locked up with $5 to $6 trillion(on paper) tied up. They can't find buyers because all of the "efficiency gutting" has already been done and their Limited Partners demand unrealistic returns.
Next bailout incoming and we still won't get any transparency with the funds. The theory of Beneficial Ownership and AML is such a joke when it comes to these PE's.
Job loss is bullish for this stock market. It raises the odds that the Fed will either cut rates or hold them steady, which means that businesses will have a greater chance of being able to borrow money for cheaper.
Close, Job loss is bullish because it increases earnings. Stocks are a reflection of earnings, not the strength of the economy and fed rate effects are overstated when corporations ability to borrow is based on the strength of their balance sheet.
The Fed giving a 25 bps rate reduction don't mean shit compared to the ability to cut 10,000 jobs from your payroll due to AI productivity gains (which is reality despite people denying AI the productivity gains are undeniable)
It wont. The stock market rallied today on the news of a terrible jobs report. The stock market is by the wealthy and for the wealthy. The rest of us are struggling with inflationary pricing.
Yes. I am free to invest and have been for many years. That being said when the wealthy own basically all of the assets, saying that im free to invest ignores the wealth disparity already out there. Thr richest 1% of Americans already own 50% of all stocks in the market. As we continue to see more tax cuts for the wealthy for years to come, this divide will only get worse.
One has to have money to invest. When you’re only just scraping by, you don’t invest. I think your question was in bad faith though, so not like my response will matter. :)
while I agree that it's all vibe casino these days.. you have $500bil pension fund/hedge fund/etc where else would you move the money to?? for better or worse everybody has money in the ponzi scheme as there's no alternatives
The stock market isn’t an indicator of the overall economy, it’s an indicator of the economy for the wealthy. The wealthy are doing spectacular and the stock market reflects that.
Spot on. The disconnect between Wall Street asset prices and Main Street labor conditions has been unsustainable for a while.When bad economic news like job losses gets interpreted by the market as a catalyst for Fed rate cuts, stock prices rally on easy-money expectations rather than underlying economic fundamentals
The AI bubble is pushing stocks up along with general optimism across the board for now, plus some numbers in certain sectors aren't terrible.
Another thing is not every industry needs as many people now to achieve the same goals. So people being fired and unemployment can be seen as a positive for many public companies as investors simply see less payroll and more profits without any change to the fundaments. This doesn't mean it's great for either side long-term, but for now this is part of the reason stocks are staying high.
I don't know that trader's think everything is great - I think a lot of them know the crash is coming but also know they can make an asston of money before it happens. They're confident in their ability to get out before things go to shit....we'll see if they're right. I mean, in a crash there's always a lot of people left holding the bag.
They _are_ reflecting reality. The decrease in jobs means the Fed won’t have room to raise interest rates. This risk was already priced in so now the market can rise relative to where it was. This is all logical.
American companies make half if not more than half of their profits outside the USA. KFC is pretty much all China. Microsoft makes more than half of its profits from international sales.
I was living in the Detroit suburbs in 2007 and all the shops were closing up. I moved to the Chicago suburbs and the party continued for another year. Matket indicators diverged for at least 8 months before it started showing in the indexes.
Stock prices are just a big circle-jerk for the "rich" (I.e. people who have enough to contribute to their 401k monthly and upwards in terms of richness)
The market is framed as a perpetual growth machine, and everyone is piling money in every month. It takes something really catastrophic to derail that.. and I think the AI bubble will pop at some point when they can't fulfil all the obligations they made to each other and their suppliers.
Well at least in the last few hours many stocks are rising because supposedly more people without jobs means the Fed is less likely to increase interest rate, which means more money would enter the market.
Is this shock in the room with us right now? The market is basically pushing to all the time high still This report just means the fed is less likely to raise rates.
Anybody that’s in the job hunt or even just slightly unhappy with their job and looking around knows this job market is horrific unless you’re in healthcare.
I have never wanted to be in healthcare but at 44 I am thinking about going back to school for nursing. At least by the time I graduated I’d have 20 years left to make decent money. I have a bachelors and make 54k a year. It’s awful.
Yah I’m 29 and I also have a bachelor’s and can’t get enough hours at my part time job to even think about surviving on my own. I can’t find anyone offering decent health insurance willing to hire more people right now that need training. It’s an absolute joke and nightmare out here right now. If it wasn’t for my parents fully supporting me I would either be homeless or dead right now. Shit is AWFUL right now.
The issue is that quite literally everyone is going to nursing bc it’s a ticket to the middle class. It has pushed competition for spots WAY up And will flood the industry in a couple years bringing wages down making it not worth it. I say this bc I’m in tech and looked into nursing and literally would not get accepted anywhere. The competition is insane.
The fuck are you on about? We are still in a nursing shortage; the market never recovered from a massive amount of RNs leaving the profession over how they were treated during COVID.
I’m in healthcare. In the past 25 years I’ve never had a problem acquiring a job in my field. This last time around it took me three months to just get an interview. I was eventually offered that position and accepted it, even though it will be a 45 minute commute both ways.
Hospitals and other healthcare facilities are tightening their belts too, and healthcare positions are harder to obtain. Having a lot of experience can actually hurt you because they don’t want to pay you for it.
I went back to school and graduated a year ago, and have been looking for a "real" job since.....and nothing. Tuesday was exactly 15 months since I graduated and not a bite.
And even earlier this year, I lost my food service job and where usually that stuff is a super fast turnaround and I've never once had an issue with going from one job to another in the retail/food space (and to be clear I'm not at all a job hopper) it took me a little over 2 months before I started my current job and I was on unemployment, because even that retail/food hiring had slowed down. Even just listings are down.
I don't even know what's happening anymore. My company announced earnings this quarter (which are always solid) and this is the first time the stock went up right after. It always drops on good earnings.
Maybe that's my signal, like the shoe-shine story. But nobody wants to get out of the market right now, and even when I want to, something holds me back.
I usually reserve "horrendous" for pretty serious recessions, but the Trump economy has been "meh" at best.
Inflation running almost consistently above 3%, with some readings reaching 4%.
Jobs reports that are just poor. For instance, prior to COVID, we were averaging about 2 million new employees (nonfarm) per year. 2023 was 2.1 million, 2024 was 1.3 million. 2025 was 164,000. That's right. 164,000. We are at 266,000 through July.
Policy choices; tariffs, trade wars, another forever Middle Eastern war; all of these are depressing economic outcomes.
Q2 GDP was 1.5%; this is when companies are spending an obscene amount of investment money on AI buildouts, with the world's first trillionaire being appointed; we should be booming (>4%, in my estimation).
These come among some of the highest real wage growth trends we've seen in decades, during an AI buildout that should be leading to an economic boom, etc.
Eh. Even the most pessimistic of the budgeting models didn’t find much reduction in growth and employment from tariffs.
The oil cost shock from Iran? Absolutely; and it took a hell of a lot of SPR drawdowns everywhere to even mitigate it so far. If it continues, it absolutely is a trigger.
I happened to be watching the jobs numbers carefully in 2007-2008, and as a result was not surprised (although was also not prepared) by the recession. The depth of it, ok, but I did see it coming from those years of mid numbers.
With regard to #2, working age EPOP is still over 80%. Hard for me to say the labor economy is that bad when that is the case and the unemployment rate is so low. I'm not sure we even have the demographics to sustain 6 figure job gains unless we put all the grandmas back to work.
I agree, if you want to blame inflation and high grocery prices, blame Joe Biden. His 2 trillion dollar stimulus is why things are so expensive and is why he was unpopular among his party.
You do realize, Trump had a 2.2 Trillion dollar stimulus the year before called the CARES act. The next year Biden passed the American rescue plan, which was a 1.9 Trillion dollar stimulus.
Oh, sweetie. Yes, the COVID era Biden fiscal stimulus was a major cause of inflation. In 2022 and 2023.
The fact that you can say Biden for the current inflation makes me wish that your parents opted for one of those post-birth abortions you dildos go on and on about.
Have these companies not been laying off like crazy despite their record stock prices and profits?
How is this job report a shock? Even if there are job available and ready to hire, people can’t get past the AI screening tools. The system is so beyond broken.
And then the Dow Jones shot up, because of course it did. I've heard it many times, half the earth could be carved off. Zombie hordes could be maurading through the streets and the Dow would be up 500pts.
Trump and the “republican” policies have absolutely destroyed the US economy. Most don’t realize it’s a dead man walking. Here in Canada, we just added 75,000 jobs in July and our unemployment rate is the lowest in 2 years.
The stock market is extremely overvalued, pe ratios are sky high. If it wasnt for the tariff refunds stolen from the tariff payer, us, and gifted to some of these companies things would be even worse.
Do you know nothing from Warren buffet and munger? They have restated thr famous warning by economist John Maynard Keynes: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
The employment figures over the past two years have severely overstated the market's strength. Revisions erased nearly one million previously reported jobs, revealing that employment growth has actually flatlined.
Wall Street and broader economy are just entirely different things now.
It’s very similar to comparing the zoo and the great outdoors. Animals in captivity don’t behave the same way in the wild. I’ll let you all figure out which is the zoo and which is the wild between 18 Broad Street, Manhattan and Main Street, USA.
I thought we were supposed to keep cash on the sidelines and wait for the crash?…. the market has exploded and people are making money hand over fist while all the holders just sit and wait….. were we duped?
If you're a doomer, keep your money under your mattress for as long as you want. The rest of are riding this bullet train and enjoying the ride. See you on the other side if/when you get there.
It should be mentioned that July was a good jobs report month for Canada. Not that the trade war was the only economic factor but the two economies are linked and policy does matter.
This will un doubtedly be corrected / increased at the revision date. Also most likely spark a call for less reporting as past un favorable reporting has led to.
Only 4 months of Trump's Presidency have they revised the previously reported numbers higher than initially reported. Every other month has been revised down. Only 1 month in 2024 had a positive revision; all others were negative as well.
This is a problem since Biden's Administration, and with the gutting of the BLS and lack of new approach to calculating actual unemployment (people who want to work, but cannot find work, including people who work gig economy work in attempts to make ends meet).
You mean the market that's up today? What is the shock exactly? I feel like sensationalism in markets journalism isn't exactly productive. But yeah. Not good.
I thank god every day that my job is really, really hard to cut loose because I'm cheaper than hiring an MSP or an Agentic bullshit helper.
ISSO's baby, we're invincible.. for now.
Bunch of people in this sub that can’t comprehend the economy does not equal stock markets.
Hell, theres a reason the only posts that get comments here relate to some vague picture of a trading view chart on a 15m time frame or an annoyingly biased article.
Before I get downvoted, Trump is a dingus along with the rest of his cronies - never voted for him.
But why are we associating economic figures with the stock market when in the long run, they tend to be sparsely correlated at best.
Yes the job market sucks, but that does not discount the Mag 7 Capex that realizes as smaller company profits who are building out the AI supply chain.
$100 put into NVDA is not the same as $100 put into the 400th company in a market weighted index.
You’d think this sub would understand that, but here we are thinking that a bad jobs print should tank the market 10%.
Market is +0.60% today. Wall Street must find it so horrendous… Come on… market is gonna keep ripping along so long as all this inflation keeps up and tech remains hot.
Things aren’t as bad as the internet would have you believe.
Consumers keep spending money while wage inflation is at 4% YOY...job changers at 7%. Banks have reported low default rates as consumers continue to pay mortgages and credit cards.
Businesses will slow spending until post November as the playing field becomes clearer. This cycle has been with us for decades and this November will determine how much power he will lose.
Businesses aren't stupid. Why won't spend money until you know what next year will look like.
>Businesses will slow spending until post November as the playing field becomes clearer. This cycle has been with us for decades and this November will determine how much power he will lose.
>Businesses aren't stupid. Why won't spend money until you know what next year will look like.
What are you imagining the business mindset being here? You think companies are going to increase spending/hiring if the GOP does better than expected in the election? If so, why?
GOP better than expected? lol…no don’t think so.
There is a long list of changes that can occur, if you listen to political news.
For one example…If the GOP loses at least one chamber, the “No Wars Act” may have legs to pass. Congress could put a stop to this war in Iran which could prevent a world wide economic catastrophe. This war is illegal while just about every GOP member hates it but does not have the balls to stop it.
“The No War through Reconciliation Act prevents Congress from abusing that process to fund an unauthorized war. Since this war began, 6,000 people have died, including 1,701 civilians, over 254 children and at least 13 U.S. Service Members.”
Also, if the Dems win back even “The House” there will be more probing into Caligula and his finances. This week, Capital One Bank announced they had closed Caligula‘s bank account due to claims of money laundering.
A few months back, I heard Caligula ask his supporters to vote during midterms. He said if he loses support he thinks he will be impeached…. and, this time the rest of the Epstein files will be exposed as the head of committees will be Democrat controlled.
And the list goes on…and on.
Consumers and businesses are watching this data as both need relief from high gas prices and inflation. And if this war continues it will only get worse as winter months are around the corner when gas and oil will be needed the most. There could be major shifts in policies after midterms that could affect money and politics.
Who’s to say. It depends what The House and The Senate plan to do to help consumers and businesses. Consumer spending is 70% of the U.S. economy. If Congress can find financial relief for consumers, businesses may become more confident to hire again.
I hear interviews with business leaders. Many say they would like to hire but have no confidence to do so, especially if the threat of inflation could cause interest rates to spike, which will increase business loan costs. Seems like everything is riding on the outcome of this war. Dems will fight for this war to end if they have more control and more voting power.
And here is more crazy data that Congress can fight for.
Currently, oil tankers are taking crazy routes out of the Mideast to transport oil. One major route is through the Panama Canal. I heard today that the Panama Canal moves ships by using fresh water. Unfortunately, with a constant threat of South America drought, there isn’t enough water to push larger oil tankers through the canal.
This oil data doesn’t get any better. New members voted into Congress can fight for this war to end.
This website doesn’t like positive numbers because it disagrees with their priors. They’ve been predicting a crash due to Trump/AI/“greed” for two years now and the economy and market keeps humming.
Could a hot inflation number next week cause the market to price in a hike in September again, or will the market still think the risk to the job market is too great?
Some of this may be seasonal. Local governments and state governments did all their layoffs around the budget cycle/fiscal year which starts July 1st. I work in local government so that’s what I personally experienced. This may (hopefully) be temporary.
Once again, markets are sure the fed will continue to stimulate this disaster of an economy that cant hold itself up without big daddy government artificially manipulating its currency
Lower job numbers are never good but it's not the doom most TDSers are hoping for. Most of the job losses were concentrated in government jobs, which happens every year around this time because it's seasonal, and in the leisure and hospitality sector which is due to the world Cup coming to an end.
Appropriate_Formal64 | 13 hours ago
Maybe stock prices will begin to reflect reality and this idea that everything is great will meet reality in the middle and the powers that be will be forced to do something about it- because so long as the stocks keep going up, why would they?
Mindless-Mulberry404 | 13 hours ago
I'm pretty shocked the market hasn't crashed yet, the numbers dont make sense
Appropriate_Formal64 | 13 hours ago
It's a bunch of very wealthy people pumping money into stocks and a bunch of not so wealthy but still have plenty of money people not panic selling and a bunch of institutions pumping more money than anybody into these stocks.
It's basically an entire GameStop pump economy.
Seraph199 | 13 hours ago
That and the top tech companies just passing the same lump sum investments around between each other and all counting the money as "profits"
Appropriate_Formal64 | 13 hours ago
Right. Round Trip Trading.
themiracy | 13 hours ago
r/economiccirclejerk
But business spending isn’t down. Consumer spending isn’t really down holistically. Aggregate PE is elevated but not spiked. And stocks aren’t bread or eggs. “Stocks are too expensive for common folk” is a meaningless statement from a market valuation basis.
What is the actual logic in terms of the market fundamentals that say the market should crash?
QuantitativeNonsense | 12 hours ago
Investors over leveraging themselves and making far less than their expected return. Is that going to happen? I’m leaning yes but I’m not naive enough to entirely toss out AI as a sunk cost.
themiracy | 12 hours ago
I do think if/when we reach a point where we transition from “AI will make returns but not yet” to “AI is not going to make returns,” that will generate a major correction.
Oryzae | 3 hours ago
Most likely it will make massive returns for some and middling returns for the other, so things could just be flat for a bit because nobody wants to be the one pulling out
JitteryJoes1986 | 4 hours ago
We're in the "Shoot now, ask questions later" economy right now.
thewimsey | 45 minutes ago
> Investors over leveraging themselves and making far less than their expected return.
Why do you think investors are leveraging themselves to begin with?
_BarryObama | 6 hours ago
To add to your point, there's at least a chance that the modern stock market...just doesn't care that much about employment figures on a monthly basis. For all the talk about AI replacing people in the workforce, maybe it's replaced people as an economic indicator on the stock market.
Stompnutz | 2 hours ago
The bottom 60% of people are more or less completely irrelevant to the economy, and nothing they do one way or the other matters much at all.
thewimsey | 44 minutes ago
> The bottom 60% of people are more or less completely irrelevant to the economy,
No they aren't. This is dumb and based on some headline you didn't understand connected to an article you didn't read.
bassman9999 | 8 hours ago
Consumer spending isn't down because the items being purchased are more expensive. More money spent on less product/services gives a distorted picture.
Appropriate_Formal64 | 13 hours ago
Should not will. Should because it'd be good for the little guy in the long run, won't because, as others have said, so many people are into trading now that even the little guy without much money is putting his or her spare change into the markets.
I know guys who barely make $40k a year who put every spare penny they have into stocks.
Again- extrapolate that... and yeah.
Petrichordates | 12 hours ago
The market crashing is good for billionaires, definitely not the little guy. How did you come to believe the opposite of reality?
> I know guys who barely make $40k a year who put every spare penny they have into stocks.
That's literally what people are supposed to be doing. They're called retirement accounts..
OoglieBooglie93 | 5 hours ago
They already own enough of the market for them to not have all that much to gain by buying it for less.
Besides, their money comes from stocks. If the market crashes, so does their purchasing power. They're not going to be starving, but it's not great for buying yachts either.
Appropriate_Formal64 | 12 hours ago
I know I know buy the dip. I am talking some kind of pressure on employers to improve wages and pressure on companies to refocus on affordability. It’s pie in the sky stuff.
HumorAccomplished611 | 11 hours ago
If you have money then that gives you leverage. If people dont buy stuff then companies adapt
look at mcdonalds they had that buy one for 3 get another for 1$ for quite a while to rope people back in. now its gone again.
JitteryJoes1986 | 4 hours ago
They need to be putting that in a HYSA savings account rather than in stocks tbh.
Build that up to have coverage in case shit hits the fan. When stocks crash, that person won't have much to take out in case of job loss, medical emergencies, etc.
adidasbdd | 4 hours ago
Exactly what happened on 29. Everyone and their barber was leveraged to the hilt to invest in the market.
Appropriate_Formal64 | 4 hours ago
Yeah, exactly. This just doesn't feel sustainable. Someone will pull the plug, which will create a domino effect and then... well, we didn't *truly* recover until WW2, which took about 10 years to be realized by and large....
adidasbdd | 4 hours ago
The country and economy would flourish if capital was spread more evenly but the wealthy and powerful can't help themselves but pillage the working class as the expense of everyone
Aggravating-Bet-607 | 13 hours ago
Real talk 💯
coke_and_coffee | 2 hours ago
PE is super elevated. Not sure what you mean by “not spiked”.
tigeratemybaby | 54 minutes ago
Spending on non-essentials has crashed.
Just look at the sneaker market and all the brands having to deal with plummeting demand.
Everyone's just looking for cheap alternatives to everything now.
adidasbdd | 4 hours ago
Price to earnings ratios are much higher than historic norms. Investors are pushing up company values based on potential earnings far into the future, not based on proven consistent revenue growth. An extreme example is Tesla, technically worth more than the big 3 American manufacturers combined, yet their 2025 revenue is less than 1/5 of that collective. And that's their best year ever.
On whether the market is likely to crash, that depends on available credit for these companies to invest and keep growing. The largest tech companies have all started borrowing insane sums of money the last year or so. That makes borrowing more expensive for everyone else, there is only so much money available. And if/when interest rates increase (which is long overdue as well), a lot of companies living on free credit will no longer be competitive.
velvetacidchrist | 9 hours ago
That is how the Great Depression started. Musk and what he is doing with the various companies is the direct comparison here. The further we go without a correction, the more pain there will be.
Musk has a few major companies.
Tesla stock values have been manipulated for years. Check how many times he continues to publicly discuss full self-driving. Reports came out a while back showing how Tesla was obfuscating data about how many vehicles were being sold in their quarterly reports. Tesla was caught selling its vehicles to another musk company, spacex. There is no punishment for him going on public TV and promising things that he will never deliver on.
Ai investment will cause so many companies to become insolvent and he will hide how unprofitable it is by creating shell companies and buying each other's assets. See how many times his AI company has been sold to another of his companies.
He has already been refusing to pay contractors who are building his data centers. I wonder where he got that idea?
When the party is over and the check is due, expect handouts from the government much like the 2008 crisis because his companies are "too big to fail" and it would be a "national security threat" if they would be allowed to go under. Let's ignore that the only way his companies have gotten so big is the cozying up to this administration.
alex88- | 8 hours ago
It’s not the same comparison. Retail market engagement is at the highest it’s ever been, and that’s a good thing. We shouldn’t fight policy that literally incentivizes investing in the US market.
adidasbdd | 4 hours ago
Retail engagement and volumes may be high, but ownership is as low as ever.
findingmike | 12 hours ago
Depends on the company and the week. Often it is revenue and not profits.
hurler_jones | 3 hours ago
https://youtu.be/s-ycvJC-qIQ
getwhirleddotcom | 13 hours ago
I mean that’s not how that works.
Thom0 | 11 hours ago
The US has a fundamental capital/income ratio problem and one major cause of the US's inflation woes is the fact that there is a huge amount of private capital which has been gradually growing over the last 30 years which has had no where to go because the economy isn't growing fast enough. It is being ejected into assets because this is the only place it can be put.
The US is currently undergoing the largest allocation of capital in recorded history. Over 50% of all venture capital in the US economy is currently being allocated to AI. Billions, and billions of USD of private capital is being pumped into the US stock market - it is all under-regulated leverage.
This is a catastrophe waiting to happen but the average person might not be as badly harmed in the long run as we might think. This isn't 2008 because the majority of the reality warping capital flows are private. It isn't household debt, or institutional lenders being over-exposed to risk. The 2008 bubble was relatively democratized in that really anyone who could get cheap credit could try their luck investing into property. This time around, it is an elite club of the top 10% throwing their money into a bubble. When it pops, they will lose their money. It won't decimate households unless they're working in AI development, or data centers.
What is going to happen next is a collapse of the US shadow banking sector which is exactly what happened in China during COVID only it was property, and not AI that triggered the collapse. This shock won't impact the average person at all unless their pension is tied into the shadow banking system. Interest rates are already high, and so long as inflation persists will remain high. AI is a bizarre problem which is going to destroy the top 10%.
The big picture question is 'why wasn't this capital allocated to housing development, infrastructure development, and jobs?' Why wasn't this money used appropriately instead of gambled at the AI-casino? This is the question policymakers should be thinking about now. Why is there more venture capital than there is GDP? How do you end up with such a fundamental problem?
IAmTheNightSoil | 8 hours ago
This is really interesting analysis. My one quibble though, is that anyone with a 401k or a Roth IRA probably has investments in tech companies, so wouldn't that collapse still badly affect all of them?
Thom0 | 8 hours ago
I should qualify it by saying the AI bubble will destroy the top 10% but that this is going to be socialized through bailouts and austerity. Most Western governments would do this, but given the Trump government is intrinsically linked into the speculative bubble I would expect them to go very hard on austerity to essentially bail themselves out personally.
>My one quibble though, is that anyone with a 401k or a Roth IRA probably has investments in tech companies, so wouldn't that collapse still badly affect all of them?
Yes, this will impact them and I said that in my comment. The point I was trying to make is the risk is exceptionally high, but the overall exposure is relatively small. This isn't like 2008 when everyone could get in on the speculation.
There is a bit of a morbid trend hidden underneath all of this. Since 2008, the economy has grown so unequal and out of balance that the amount of people capable of rolling the dice is a constantly decreasing number.
I just wanted to point out that while this is the single biggest speculative bubble in history, it is a bubble to which only 10% of the population are exposed to. Sadly, another record being simultaneously broken is the 'most corrupt government in US history' category which means those scumbags are going to run austerity to the absolute max to salvage their own personal bank accounts.
xorfivesix | 7 hours ago
You are painting an optimistic picture of an AI crash that doesn't directly affect the overall 'real' economy a la 2008, but how can we be confident that the financial system will remain solvent when/if the people that control all the capital are forced to liquidate? Are not the financial institutions heavily invested in the PE/hedge funds that are bankrolling the speculation? Or do you mean also that lending isn't a 'real' part of the economy?
And furthermore, I believe the reality is that austerity is more or less a foregone conclusion given the existing debt, persistent deficits, demographics and general can-kicking policy in the US post-Clinton. Hell we're bailing out Japan right now so we don't have to deal with our debt.
kent_eh | 2 hours ago
> This is the question policymakers should be thinking about now
Today's policy makers are a large part of the problem.
coke_and_coffee | 2 hours ago
AI is here to stay, bud. It’s the real deal. There is no bubble.
CptTurnersOpticNerve | 5 hours ago
Well, it will affect us when they use tax payer dollars to get bailed out, as is the custom.
DrXaos | 4 hours ago
> Why is there more venture capital than there is GDP? How do you end up with such a fundamental problem?
tax cuts for the rich, and enormous compensation for the ultra rich executives and investors
Do that for 40 years since 1980s. VC money comes only from really wealthy people's circle.
caligirl0889 | 13 hours ago
This is me. I'm not panic selling and I am continuing to invest anywhere between $75.00-$1,000 per week. I agree the numbers don't make sense though. I am keeping about $20,000 cash earmarked for a shopping spree if a crash happens. The market seems to be held up by smoke in mirrors right now.
Financial-Sweet-4648 | 13 hours ago
Holy shit. At least somebody has money. Keep being smart. The superwealthy are high on their own supply and steering us toward the cliff.
caligirl0889 | 13 hours ago
Thanks. Yeah I am in a very fortunate position at the moment and very aware of how fortunate I am. I was not always doing this well. I'm doing everything in my power to prevent myself from ever having to live in poverty again. I am still much closer to being homeless than I am to being a billionaire.
Ihate_reddit_app | 12 hours ago
I feel the same way. Investing still routinely, but more "safely" by using index funds instead of individual stocks. I'm also keeping cash on hand in a 4% savings account that is a 2 year safety net if everything goes catastrophic.
caligirl0889 | 12 hours ago
Yep! All my cash is in a HYSA making 4% also. You're doing better than me though. I only have 1 year of expenses in that account + the $20k that is for the stock market.
GlystophersCorpse003 | 11 hours ago
I’ve already been wiped out by unemployment last year. Got a job but someone ripped up the contract and our group gets cut in December. When will I be able to save a rainy day fund ever again?!?? My credit got toasted I ran out.
Mundane_Log_7169 | 12 hours ago
Are index funds even safe when the entire S&P is propped up by a handful of companies? I started looking into BRK-B it’s lighter on tech companies. Interestingly, it has beat VOO for the past 5 years.
Ihate_reddit_app | 11 hours ago
Safe relative to trying to pick individual stocks. Historically they perform fairly well and have been less risk, but yes, it is too heavy.
The stock market itself isn't necessarily safe. Buffett's company has done a great job of investing in the right things, but is it sustainable now that he passed the torch?
thewimsey | 41 minutes ago
> Are index funds even safe when the entire S&P is propped up by a handful of companies?
You can look back to 1926 and you'll find that almost all of the gains in the market came from only 4% of the stocks. Obviously not the same stocks, but it's always been the case that only a small number of stocks drive all the gains.
One of the theories for why index funds do so well is that they always own that 4%.
sophrocynic | 6 hours ago
> The market seems to be held up by smoke in mirrors right now.
But how do they get the smoke inside the mirror?
Etereve | 11 hours ago
U
Sarosite | 12 hours ago
I'm part of that second part. Sorry, I know reddit loves to doomerism and everything is 1 second away from complete collapse but the market is the only way to consistently make money and sure it as hell beats keeping it sitting in cash under the mattress but many magnitudes
Jets237 | 10 hours ago
My view - if the market crashes everyone is effed, so might as well enjoy the ride and make money before it happens (if)
Appropriate_Formal64 | 12 hours ago
I am completely fine with that and more power to the individuals who are improving their situation through this.
I used the initial Palantir pump last year to finance my vacation. I’m not against it. Just wish the playing field was more fair to hard working blue collar folk- I am grey collared and in a cushy situation, so this isn’t a personal grievance, more of a principles thing.
weluckyfew | 9 hours ago
You could have said this at the beginning of 2007 too. All these stock market gains only count when they're cashed out. If everyone rushes for the exit at the same time then a lot of those profits disappear quickly.
dust4ngel | 8 hours ago
> the market is the only way to consistently make money
when you say "consistent" are you including 10-year periods where the market loses value? because arguably 10 years of losing isn't consistently winning.
RedParaglider | 13 hours ago
It's a house of debt cards. All it takes is a couple companies to start paying their bills late and it all unwinds like crazy.
emtheory09 | an hour ago
The ultra wealthy have nothing else to do with their gains but buy more assets, so this is almost exactly what’s going on.
Salty_Introduction31 | 12 hours ago
Yes. Warren buffet is sitting on cash waiting for winners from this bloodbath
Valuable-Storm8793 | 8 hours ago
Me too. Sold a lot on the few high days past couple months, setting up some stop losses after checking the futures in the middle of the night; just pecking away. Have a little pile now. 🤦♀️
beams13 | 7 hours ago
Well that and every 401k into the country is tied to it. It'll always have money feeding into it.
Masta0nion | 5 hours ago
GameStop pumped because of naked short selling.
PlandemicPapi | 13 hours ago
Don’t worry, once the regular 7 figure rich people start losing their money will they finally realize they created monsters out of the ultra rich.
Appropriate_Formal64 | 13 hours ago
Yeah and I am aware that most of them are doing great in the market right now.
davidw223 | 13 hours ago
Well think about. What’s more profitable? To invest in a small to medium sized business and grow some wealth that way through the lottery that is owning a business in today’s economy or throw that into so AI stonks? The last few years your return would have been better off in the market. Now I’m sure it’s not healthy that the best use of those funds is on Wall Street instead of Main Street, but that’s probably going to change now that we’ve reached peak AI.
Actual_Violinist290 | 13 hours ago
Because a bad jobs report = less chance of interest rate hikes
Violin1990 | 13 hours ago
High unemployment => fed less likely to raise interest rates => stonks go up
sendymcsendersonboi | 13 hours ago
Bingo
austinwiltshire | 13 hours ago
I agree this is the knee jerk response but what's actually happening between the carry trade and inflation is the fed can't do anything which is a bit scarier.
Bismar7 | 13 hours ago
If only we would use direct taxes instead of inflationary controls to direct velocity of money.
Thrasymachus77 | 11 hours ago
That would require a functional legislature, and we don't really have that.
Intelligent_Mud1266 | 58 minutes ago
that would require making fiscal policy. We don't do that here
Petrichordates | 12 hours ago
Since when do we have high unemployment?
Ernst_and_winnie | 9 hours ago
We don’t but labor participation is declining/low.
pigvwu | 9 hours ago
Aging population / demographic shift. Labor participation for ages 25-54 is near all time high.
Scrandon | 8 hours ago
Demographic trends don’t explain trend reversals on this short of a timeline. The rate was growing as recently as 2022/2023 and has started falling off a cliff right when trump started monkeying with the economy.
pigvwu | 8 hours ago
Probably mostly some combination or aging population and Covid causing more early retirements. It seems to me that LFPR for 55+ has mostly been in decline since Covid. The growth in 2022 was probably more related to Covid recovery than anything else, since the jump in 2021-2022 mirrors 25-54, and 55-65 is still working age for most people. Then the 55+ rate (annual basis) has been in decline since Jan 2023, which is too early to be caused by Trump.
P.S. Don't get me wrong, I'm not attributing this to Biden either. Just factors other than who's president and what they did.
Scrandon | 6 hours ago
We can get a little more nuanced than that by looking at the rate of change, rather than simply saying “down is down”. It was trending down gradually in 2023 in a way that could be explained by demographics. It’s been falling off a cliff since the tariff chaos started.
Willster328 | 10 hours ago
Yeah these people, in an Economics sub of all places, dont know wtf theyre talking about
CauliflowerDaffodil | 6 hours ago
Most redditors regardless of the sub don't know what they're talking about.
Lopsided_Package9033 | 12 hours ago
Exactly. Strange that bonds don't seem to be buying it though. I expected 10 and 20 year yields to go down but they have barely budged and are still higher than they were a few days ago.
sendymcsendersonboi | 4 hours ago
The really interesting thing is that the “unemployment rate” actually moved down, but that’s because of how the metric is calculated I think.
By removing jobs from the pool, the unemployment rate as a % moved relative to the offset. Unless I’m an idiot and I’m reading this wrong.
jtmn | 3 hours ago
It's sad this has way less upvotes than the wrong answer.
Stags304 | 2 hours ago
Yep just that simple. The best case scenario is a very mild downturn that will get rates cut without impacting business
burnthatburner1 | 13 hours ago
The stock market sees bad job numbers as an indicator the Fed won’t hike rates, which it views as a positive. That’s why the market is up on this news.
Mindless-Mulberry404 | 13 hours ago
Right, but the past 2 years, the numbers just dont add up with the jobs reports
Also, the market itself doesnt make sense, its like the same 4 stocks keeping it up?
burnthatburner1 | 13 hours ago
what do you mean by that?
Microtom_ | 13 hours ago
You don't understand what the market is.
It's two things. It's a casino where people chase price momentum. And it's a way for the wealthy to extort consumers. Existing wealth is purchases and the owns demand a premium for access under the threat of being force to unnecessarily replace that wealth.
The first reason means that the stock market can go up simply because it was previously going up. The second reason means that there's always a reason to buy and hold.
fx2600 | 12 hours ago
You can't even come up with a coherent theory
origami_bluebird | 7 hours ago
The stock market is driven by corporate earnings.
Paying employees is often the #1 expense for any company. A reduction of hiring due to productivity gains that we are experiencing results in higher corporate earnings.
Simple as that, a 25 bps reduction doesn't matter when these companies already can borrow at rates determined by their balance sheet strength and not the fed.
Geopolitics and the state of our economic reality for main street Americans will never reflect in a market driven by Tech Hyperscalers who make more money when the world goes to shit.
SleepingCod | 13 hours ago
Why are you surprised? The economy is already running on 20%.
We only need 20% of people with money and employment to keep this ship afloat. The k shaped economy and what have yous.
bloodontherisers | 13 hours ago
As far as I can tell the market will never crash because there is just so much investment through various means now. 401Ks, 403Bs, 529s, IRAs, Roth IRAs, etc. all put the money of ordinary people into the market constantly, so until the amounts from those start to decrease (sometime after the population stops growing) the market will basically always trend upward. Wall Street may get spooked occasionally and things will drop a bit, but every regard over on WSB is in to buy the dip, and so is every fund manager trying to get his clients a good ROI.
mottledmussel | 13 hours ago
Retirement accounts make up about 40% of the stock market. That's an enormous amount of investments essentially being bought on autopilot.
TheHomersapien | 13 hours ago
The stock market reflects the economy. Americans will not stop spending. Yes, they moan, whine, and complain, but no, they won't put their wallets away.
I'm shocked that you or anyone else is shocked by this. Go to a mall recently? Wal mart? Buy anything expensive, whether luxury or not? Even the orange rapist moron's national sales tax on imports hasn't slowed us down. Borrow, spend, borrow...repeat.
Open_Climate_3760 | 12 hours ago
People on Reddit also fundamentally don’t understand how MASSIVE and long-lasting the impacts of COVID era mortgages will be on consumers. Fully 47% of American households do not have a mortgage at all or are below 4% interest on their mortgage.
Every other person you interact with has no rent or a 40-50% discount every month. That’s a lot of discretionary spending available to consumers.
Emergency-Style7392 | 10 hours ago
The median american has discretionary spending in like top 10% of western europeans, and that's a shitload of money and peopl3
CauliflowerDaffodil | 6 hours ago
In our case, we were able to shave off half the length of our mortgage and went from 4.90% FR to 2.35%FR with our monthly payment going up by just $180. Just with the interest savings alone, we were able to buy another investment property.
Mundane_Log_7169 | 12 hours ago
Wasn’t it said that younger generations don’t see a point in saving because they will never own a home? They rather spend on travel and experiences. That’s why Coachella and concert tickets are the prices they are. The future is bleak so spend money and enjoy life while you can.
Petrichordates | 12 hours ago
I mean that's just basic fiscal irresponsibility. Perceptions aren't reality, and that's moreso true today than probably ever before.
cpudude30k | 8 hours ago
The top 10% of earners are driving 50% of consumer spending.
We're in a K shaped economy.
Those at the top are having a blast, everyone else is just getting by or not even that.
dust4ngel | 8 hours ago
> The stock market reflects the economy
true but misleading. you can have a bull market during high unemployment, e.g. if there's plenty of money to be made off of a handful of super wealthy workers lucky enough to be working.
Stompnutz | 2 hours ago
The stock market reflects the vibes that the wealthy are feeling
"Go to a mall recently?" No. "Wal mart?" No. "Buy anything expensive, whether luxury or not?" No.
sPoonamus | 13 hours ago
The age of smuggling cheaper options or making our own at home is long gone. It worked for us during the revolution through WWII but that kind of market doesn’t exist anymore with a global economy. Of course we are spending what money we do have. I can’t eat the numbers on my phone screen.
Oceanbreeze871 | 13 hours ago
MY CEO pats himself on the back at how quickly he was able to do a turnaround from barely break even to profitable. Never mentions how he laid off 20% of the company and closed offices 8 months ago.
So yeah he ruined lots of lives, and Sales didn’t increase at all. Less overhead spend. Everybody leftover is miserable and overworked
Bluestreaked | 13 hours ago
Because they think they can just manipulate the market forever and it’s never going to crash, when in reality they’re just making the potential energy of the crash build up more and more
blindollie | 11 hours ago
November right after midterms, it's booked already
Mindless-Mulberry404 | 11 hours ago
Would make complete sense
HumorAccomplished611 | 11 hours ago
why? Less jobs means no rate hike. The multi hundred billion dollar loans to build data centers can be refinanced at a lower rate thus freeing up money.
Legally_a_Tool | 13 hours ago
A circular centibillion dollar financing scheme between tech giants has a way of inflating the stock market.
getwhirleddotcom | 13 hours ago
I know it’s easy to blame a boogie man but that’s literally not how it works.
Emergency-Style7392 | 10 hours ago
The market has been pumping if you remove these companies as well.
kosk11348 | 12 hours ago
It's because everyone's retirement funds are tied to the stock market now. We can't take that money out, so it will continue to artificially prop up the market right up until the moment we all lose everything.
-XanderCrews- | 5 hours ago
5 guys have as much money as the rest of us. It’s all a lie and a joke on us. They can make the market say whatever they want.
shadeandshine | 4 hours ago
They’re all in it together because everyone is leveraged to the nine. It’s the reason so mane car repossessions and home defaults are on pause cause they legitimately don’t know what do to with the assets and if they repossess it just become a maintenance expense
Resurgo_DK | 12 hours ago
They don’t make sense to average_joe_American _001… the reason why the markets aren’t reacting is because rich people already expected these kinds of numbers knowing what trump’s policies would do.
Take a look at bls numbers yourself from Biden’s presidency till now, trump has a LOT of negative jobs numbers, but the rich people that play the stock market knew it was going to happen, so it wasn’t a surprise so stocks kept going up.
The rich are at best complicit and at worse actively hoping for all this.
flyingasian2 | 13 hours ago
The numbers don’t need to make sense, passive investing bolsters the market because people buy into these funds regardless of conditions.
cruzer86 | 12 hours ago
Stocks are priced on corporate earnings, not employment statistics
EatsRats | 12 hours ago
Poor numbers decrease likelihood of rate hikes.
Prestigious-Cup-4239 | 12 hours ago
You have to consider all the stuff that is happening that is deliberately not being advertised. The biggest military in the world is currently spraying a firehose of money at the defense and technology industries in an effort to pivot into drone and AI integrated warfare, WHILE FIGHTING IRAN. That kind of massive military spend is particularly good for the stock market because the law typically requires procurement to go to US outfits.
yoooooooooooo | 11 hours ago
The job data being bad means it is less likely the fed increases interest rates, which is good for companies on the S&P 500.
Dazzling-Rub-8550 | 10 hours ago
The Wall Street elite have a direct line to Bessent, Kushner et al, so they are trading based on inside info as well as the ability to manipulate the news and markets with zero accountability from a defanged SEC and corrupt DOJ. At some point, they will do the rug pull and make out like bandits.
Intelligent-Pear-783 | 9 hours ago
Trump just launched his subscription based api trading service, so not surprised it continues to climb. The crash will be epic.
QuesoMeHungry | 9 hours ago
It’s still riding high on AI hopium. The fuel will run out sometime soon.
WallaceCorpPC | 8 hours ago
High unemployment is much better for share holders than low unemployment
thesouthdotcom | 8 hours ago
If you strip out the top tech companies, the market is flat. Those same tech companies are feeding on the same funding they pay each other in a big circle. I’ve seen it described as “incestuous.” Once the AI bubble pops it’s over.
DiskSalt4643 | 8 hours ago
The numbers make sense if ppl are dumping 10-20% of their checks into 401(k)s and IRAs AND a lot of dark money needs a home that cant be taken by their home govts/the law.
braumbles | 8 hours ago
I've been hearing about a pending market crater since Obama was president. At this point barring another pandemic I'm starting to doubt we'll see another crash.
LongLiveStaceyKing | 7 hours ago
The modern economy has borrowed from the mobile gaming economic model and only goes after whales now. So when you see things like airlines overhauling jets to make more luxury seating or tickets to sporting events going for astronomical prices, know that you (and I) are not the target customers.
The market itself has been bolstered over the decades through the death of pension programs and the rise of 401k investment. These passive investors, (read: everyone with a 401K at their job) are not actively trading based on the news, but rather setting up their account and forgetting about it for the next 20-40 years while continuously pumping money in to the market funds they chose within the first 30 days of employment every paycheck regardless of the newscycle.
These two things on their own are not enough to explain the market's inexplicable non-reaction to the turmoil faced by the majority of the working class, but when taken together explain a big chunk of what is keeping the market afloat.
adidasbdd | 5 hours ago
The overall market has been pumping pretty much all gains to the top 10% who have nowhere else to put their money but the stock market. They can afford to keep the party going much longer than it should, but it will fall much harder when they have to liquidate.
Dilapidated_girrafe | 2 hours ago
Rich people keep making money due to Trump manipulating the stocks.
austinwiltshire | 13 hours ago
So far propped up by retail
tatertotmagic | 11 hours ago
I halted adding money to the market other than retirement accounts since last year. Instead putting money into HYSA waiting for some sort of correction
hooligan045 | 13 hours ago
AI bubble
OffalSmorgasbord | 5 hours ago
I read the other day that Private Equity has ~30,000 companies locked up with $5 to $6 trillion(on paper) tied up. They can't find buyers because all of the "efficiency gutting" has already been done and their Limited Partners demand unrealistic returns.
Next bailout incoming and we still won't get any transparency with the funds. The theory of Beneficial Ownership and AML is such a joke when it comes to these PE's.
Significant-Land-716 | 13 hours ago
Job loss is bullish for this stock market. It raises the odds that the Fed will either cut rates or hold them steady, which means that businesses will have a greater chance of being able to borrow money for cheaper.
Appropriate_Formal64 | 13 hours ago
I get that, it just fucks everybody more in the long run.
Significant-Land-716 | 13 hours ago
Yup. But the shareholders don’t care because they’ll be fine 🤷♂️
Sommern | 3 hours ago
“ Après moi, le déluge” - Louis XV
After me, the flood
origami_bluebird | 7 hours ago
Close, Job loss is bullish because it increases earnings. Stocks are a reflection of earnings, not the strength of the economy and fed rate effects are overstated when corporations ability to borrow is based on the strength of their balance sheet.
The Fed giving a 25 bps rate reduction don't mean shit compared to the ability to cut 10,000 jobs from your payroll due to AI productivity gains (which is reality despite people denying AI the productivity gains are undeniable)
Trick-Interaction396 | 13 hours ago
Everyone who has extra money is putting it into the market to hedge against inflation. It’s no longer about fundamentals.
DjCyric | 13 hours ago
It wont. The stock market rallied today on the news of a terrible jobs report. The stock market is by the wealthy and for the wealthy. The rest of us are struggling with inflationary pricing.
PatchyWhiskers | 12 hours ago
"good news! Payroll costs reduced"
alex88- | 8 hours ago
It rallies on bad jobs because that means Fed will reduce interest rates -> incentivizes capex -> companies hire more.
Everything is cyclical, and in this case the intentional role of the Fed.
gocountgrainsofrice | 12 hours ago
You are free to invest as well, no?
DjCyric | 12 hours ago
Yes. I am free to invest and have been for many years. That being said when the wealthy own basically all of the assets, saying that im free to invest ignores the wealth disparity already out there. Thr richest 1% of Americans already own 50% of all stocks in the market. As we continue to see more tax cuts for the wealthy for years to come, this divide will only get worse.
Daily-Lizard | 10 hours ago
One has to have money to invest. When you’re only just scraping by, you don’t invest. I think your question was in bad faith though, so not like my response will matter. :)
slo1111 | 13 hours ago
I think it highlights the often cited K shape of the economy. AI, consumer spending of the top 50% is powering it through.
Can the lower bit of the K where consumer is struggling cause the greater credit markets to dry up? I imagine it can go on quite a bit longer.
livefromheaven | 13 hours ago
Just ask Claude to fix the economy
janethefish | 10 hours ago
We just need to decamp from the middle east and accept Iran is getting tolls.
Aggravating-Bet-607 | 13 hours ago
Crap jobs report = stocks go up. Gives Kev & the Fed bois another reason to not to raise rates.
colcardaki | 11 hours ago
And these are the cooked books! Imagine how bad things actually are!
Redd411 | 8 hours ago
while I agree that it's all vibe casino these days.. you have $500bil pension fund/hedge fund/etc where else would you move the money to?? for better or worse everybody has money in the ponzi scheme as there's no alternatives
ColbysHairBrush_ | 7 hours ago
Remind me again what its called when we have high inflation and high unemployment (on our way)
Appropriate_Formal64 | 7 hours ago
I believe it’s called a Melancholy…
WSBiden | 13 hours ago
The stock market isn’t an indicator of the overall economy, it’s an indicator of the economy for the wealthy. The wealthy are doing spectacular and the stock market reflects that.
adoodas | 12 hours ago
In this world bad means good! And good sometimes means bad but usually good!
VacanyeraYT | 12 hours ago
Spot on. The disconnect between Wall Street asset prices and Main Street labor conditions has been unsustainable for a while.When bad economic news like job losses gets interpreted by the market as a catalyst for Fed rate cuts, stock prices rally on easy-money expectations rather than underlying economic fundamentals
bselite | 10 hours ago
The AI bubble is pushing stocks up along with general optimism across the board for now, plus some numbers in certain sectors aren't terrible.
Another thing is not every industry needs as many people now to achieve the same goals. So people being fired and unemployment can be seen as a positive for many public companies as investors simply see less payroll and more profits without any change to the fundaments. This doesn't mean it's great for either side long-term, but for now this is part of the reason stocks are staying high.
weluckyfew | 9 hours ago
> this idea that everything is great
I don't know that trader's think everything is great - I think a lot of them know the crash is coming but also know they can make an asston of money before it happens. They're confident in their ability to get out before things go to shit....we'll see if they're right. I mean, in a crash there's always a lot of people left holding the bag.
TrueClassicTease | 5 hours ago
Stocks looooove a bad jobs report
GurProfessional9534 | 13 hours ago
They _are_ reflecting reality. The decrease in jobs means the Fed won’t have room to raise interest rates. This risk was already priced in so now the market can rise relative to where it was. This is all logical.
Narrow-Business302 | 12 hours ago
Bad job numbers mean more pressure for interest rate cuts.
Substantial_Coat_229 | 11 hours ago
Nah
Speedstick2 | 9 hours ago
American companies make half if not more than half of their profits outside the USA. KFC is pretty much all China. Microsoft makes more than half of its profits from international sales.
TheRealTexasGovernor | 8 hours ago
Worry not, Trump will simply announce that Iran will sign a peace agreement and stocks will skyrocket apropos of nothing.
JuryOpposite5522 | 6 hours ago
I was living in the Detroit suburbs in 2007 and all the shops were closing up. I moved to the Chicago suburbs and the party continued for another year. Matket indicators diverged for at least 8 months before it started showing in the indexes.
ScienceGeeker | 6 hours ago
Bad job report = lower interest rates = easier to borrow.
RevenueStimulant | 12 hours ago
The stock market isn’t the economy, and I’m not parking my money in bonds or a damn savings account with current rates of return.
The stock market only doesn’t make sense right now to young broke people who don’t understand what it’s actually like managing significant savings.
Families aren’t going to be calling their advisors to rip money out of the markets because of a damn jobs report.
LegDayDE | 13 hours ago
Stock prices are just a big circle-jerk for the "rich" (I.e. people who have enough to contribute to their 401k monthly and upwards in terms of richness)
The market is framed as a perpetual growth machine, and everyone is piling money in every month. It takes something really catastrophic to derail that.. and I think the AI bubble will pop at some point when they can't fulfil all the obligations they made to each other and their suppliers.
thewimsey | 39 minutes ago
> (I.e. people who have enough to contribute to their 401k monthly and upwards in terms of richness)
That's 60% of the population.
aeon-one | 11 hours ago
Well at least in the last few hours many stocks are rising because supposedly more people without jobs means the Fed is less likely to increase interest rate, which means more money would enter the market.
SmartPatientInvestor | 11 hours ago
Stock prices are (or should be) driven by earnings, and earnings are insanely good right now. Like maybe too good
ixid | 9 hours ago
The AI Enron (AIron?) bubble is going to crash so hard, the cracks are showing.
einulfr | 8 hours ago
You done messed up, A-I-ron!
ixid | 8 hours ago
Isn't it AIronic, don't you think? It's like paaaaiiinnn on your vesting day.
horseman5K | 9 hours ago
The stock market is not the economy. This is the most basic, most repeated fact about the stock market.
kananishino | 13 hours ago
Is this shock in the room with us right now? The market is basically pushing to all the time high still This report just means the fed is less likely to raise rates.
Upstairs_Baby8424 | 12 hours ago
Anybody that’s in the job hunt or even just slightly unhappy with their job and looking around knows this job market is horrific unless you’re in healthcare.
kananishino | 12 hours ago
Yes the job market is horrific right now. What Wall Street perceives it as is a different story.
Thom0 | 8 hours ago
What is reality to you? The numbers being reported by a small club of people, or the life you live and experience?
-whis | 5 hours ago
This is an economics sub right? When the fuck did anecdotes become evidence?
Furthermore, stocks != economy so why does it matter what Wall Street is pricing in?
This sub is not an economics sub by any stretch of the imagination and hasn’t been for a long time
Sl1m_Charles | 4 hours ago
Its an absolute shitshow tbh. Im no Alan greenspan but this was my major in college and the lack of basic understanding is exhausting.
And then you have people who sound like they know what they're talking about spouting absolute nonsense.
kananishino | 3 hours ago
Well the life I live and experience is way different than what the numbers report. But I understand that what I have doesn't mean everybody else does.
-worryaboutyourself- | 12 hours ago
I have never wanted to be in healthcare but at 44 I am thinking about going back to school for nursing. At least by the time I graduated I’d have 20 years left to make decent money. I have a bachelors and make 54k a year. It’s awful.
Biggest-Benjamin | 9 hours ago
Yah I’m 29 and I also have a bachelor’s and can’t get enough hours at my part time job to even think about surviving on my own. I can’t find anyone offering decent health insurance willing to hire more people right now that need training. It’s an absolute joke and nightmare out here right now. If it wasn’t for my parents fully supporting me I would either be homeless or dead right now. Shit is AWFUL right now.
adotar | 2 hours ago
The issue is that quite literally everyone is going to nursing bc it’s a ticket to the middle class. It has pushed competition for spots WAY up And will flood the industry in a couple years bringing wages down making it not worth it. I say this bc I’m in tech and looked into nursing and literally would not get accepted anywhere. The competition is insane.
theriskybusinesscar | 2 hours ago
The fuck are you on about? We are still in a nursing shortage; the market never recovered from a massive amount of RNs leaving the profession over how they were treated during COVID.
Apprehensive-Test577 | 3 hours ago
I’m in healthcare. In the past 25 years I’ve never had a problem acquiring a job in my field. This last time around it took me three months to just get an interview. I was eventually offered that position and accepted it, even though it will be a 45 minute commute both ways.
Hospitals and other healthcare facilities are tightening their belts too, and healthcare positions are harder to obtain. Having a lot of experience can actually hurt you because they don’t want to pay you for it.
TiberiusCornelius | 2 hours ago
I went back to school and graduated a year ago, and have been looking for a "real" job since.....and nothing. Tuesday was exactly 15 months since I graduated and not a bite.
And even earlier this year, I lost my food service job and where usually that stuff is a super fast turnaround and I've never once had an issue with going from one job to another in the retail/food space (and to be clear I'm not at all a job hopper) it took me a little over 2 months before I started my current job and I was on unemployment, because even that retail/food hiring had slowed down. Even just listings are down.
duckbonez | an hour ago
I’m in the corporate side of healthcare and it’s still pretty bad.
CornFedIABoy | 13 hours ago
How many times does it have to be explained that the stock market is not the economy?
kananishino | 13 hours ago
Look at what the headline is suggesting
So_HauserAspen | 12 hours ago
All praise the DOW
Long live the shareholders
psychohistorian8 | 7 hours ago
possibly dumb question, but isn't this kind of a good thing?
If I lose my job tomorrow at least I know my stock portfolio is growing and can be used as a source of funds
SidewaysFancyPrance | 12 hours ago
I don't even know what's happening anymore. My company announced earnings this quarter (which are always solid) and this is the first time the stock went up right after. It always drops on good earnings.
Maybe that's my signal, like the shoe-shine story. But nobody wants to get out of the market right now, and even when I want to, something holds me back.
adeniumlover | 9 hours ago
Good data -> economy good stonk go up.
Bad data -> rate cut stonk go up.
fungi43 | 5 hours ago
Fuck yeah, dude. If we had millions of job losses, even better.
drama_rolyat | 13 hours ago
By reacts, do we mean it hits another all time high?
With the way things are going, the thing that appears to cancel out facts is a post from Trump saying the opposite.
“Them job losses are the Mexicans getting deported”. -probably Trump
SnooCauliflowers3235 | 13 hours ago
Did you even say thank you?
bomilk19 | 13 hours ago
I doubt that he’s even wearing a suit, let alone holding any cards of import!
bomilk19 | 13 hours ago
Why do you hate winning?
surprise-mailbox | 9 hours ago
Would someone mind putting the text of the article into a comment? I do not have CNBCPro
Apparently my comment must contain at least 140 characters, ok now we’re there. Thanks!
EconomistWithaD | 13 hours ago
I usually reserve "horrendous" for pretty serious recessions, but the Trump economy has been "meh" at best.
Inflation running almost consistently above 3%, with some readings reaching 4%.
Jobs reports that are just poor. For instance, prior to COVID, we were averaging about 2 million new employees (nonfarm) per year. 2023 was 2.1 million, 2024 was 1.3 million. 2025 was 164,000. That's right. 164,000. We are at 266,000 through July.
Policy choices; tariffs, trade wars, another forever Middle Eastern war; all of these are depressing economic outcomes.
Q2 GDP was 1.5%; this is when companies are spending an obscene amount of investment money on AI buildouts, with the world's first trillionaire being appointed; we should be booming (>4%, in my estimation).
These come among some of the highest real wage growth trends we've seen in decades, during an AI buildout that should be leading to an economic boom, etc.
gentlewaterboarding | 13 hours ago
Just the tariffs and middle eastern war are world recession material. And we didn’t even elect him.
EconomistWithaD | 13 hours ago
Eh. Even the most pessimistic of the budgeting models didn’t find much reduction in growth and employment from tariffs.
The oil cost shock from Iran? Absolutely; and it took a hell of a lot of SPR drawdowns everywhere to even mitigate it so far. If it continues, it absolutely is a trigger.
Ada_Kaleh22 | 10 hours ago
I happened to be watching the jobs numbers carefully in 2007-2008, and as a result was not surprised (although was also not prepared) by the recession. The depth of it, ok, but I did see it coming from those years of mid numbers.
EconomistWithaD | 10 hours ago
Prime age LFPR had fallen a few years before (with at best a mild recovery). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060#
LFPR was stagnant (falling now, but its retirements mostly). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART#
There’s also pretty robust wage growth.
I have a hard time seeing 2007-2009. But the labor market certainly isn’t booming; it’s meh. With warning signs.
Ada_Kaleh22 | 8 hours ago
back then there were additional workers coming in, they thought the war would goose the economy and they pushed down interest rates.
we don't have the housing crisis like then, but we don't not have a housing crisis.
so overall I agree, we've seen the economy hold up well through a lot of tough times recently.
i guess the triggers here would be the ever-increasing debt matched with high inflation. Along with the bizarre swings from tariffs/oil prices.
EconomistWithaD | 6 hours ago
If we had voted in an orange traffic cone instead of Trump, this economy would be humming.
I think you can pretty easily point to a recession during Trump 2.0 as caused by policy.
Ada_Kaleh22 | 6 hours ago
yeah, thanks for saying it.
but worse, because if a crisis hits who knows what he will do
but if we're really lucky the midterms could help a lot, in theory help a whole lot.
at least he will face pushback
EconomistWithaD | 6 hours ago
We’ve been lucky this has been a dysfunctional Congressional seating.
But yeah. I’m hoping for a solid midterms, though I’m nervous about the DS candidates…
Ada_Kaleh22 | 6 hours ago
they are the least of our problems at this point. besides, the conservatives have shown themselves to be completely unable to manage the economy.
erath_droid | 3 hours ago
> I’m nervous about the DS candidates…
Nervous about them getting in and implementing their policies or nervous about them spoiling elections and letting the Rs keep their grip on power?
McGrupp1979 | 6 hours ago
Robust Wage growth? It really seems like wages are stagnant this year and I could have sworn I read that as well.
EconomistWithaD | 5 hours ago
In 2026 so far, hovering between 3.5 and 3.9%.
https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/wage-growth-tracker
Edit: and by robust, I had been talking about 2019-2025. 2026 is TBD.
Greatest-Comrade | 9 hours ago
Oil prices are HEAVILY leaning on the SPR and China’s equivalent. Once those exhaust then shit will hit the fan.
barkinginthestreet | 7 hours ago
With regard to #2, working age EPOP is still over 80%. Hard for me to say the labor economy is that bad when that is the case and the unemployment rate is so low. I'm not sure we even have the demographics to sustain 6 figure job gains unless we put all the grandmas back to work.
EconomistWithaD | 7 hours ago
Fair point. HOWEVER...we were over 80% prior to COVID, and have been over post-COVID. In fact, we've been >83% since 2023 (with the prior numbers).
So, I'm not too sure we can't attribute it to this (either exclusively or even a major component).
Labor Force Participation Rate - 25-54 Yrs. (LNS11300060) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
DisneyPandora | 12 hours ago
I agree, if you want to blame inflation and high grocery prices, blame Joe Biden. His 2 trillion dollar stimulus is why things are so expensive and is why he was unpopular among his party.
Zerix_Albion | 10 hours ago
You do realize, Trump had a 2.2 Trillion dollar stimulus the year before called the CARES act. The next year Biden passed the American rescue plan, which was a 1.9 Trillion dollar stimulus.
EconomistWithaD | 10 hours ago
You think u/DisneyPandora is interested in facts?
This pussy ain’t coming back.
EconomistWithaD | 12 hours ago
Oh, sweetie. Yes, the COVID era Biden fiscal stimulus was a major cause of inflation. In 2022 and 2023.
The fact that you can say Biden for the current inflation makes me wish that your parents opted for one of those post-birth abortions you dildos go on and on about.
It’s all Trump. All of it.
EconomistWithaD | 11 hours ago
You may just want to stick to talking about TV shows.
You are out of your depth on adult topics.
hedahedaheda | 7 hours ago
Have these companies not been laying off like crazy despite their record stock prices and profits?
How is this job report a shock? Even if there are job available and ready to hire, people can’t get past the AI screening tools. The system is so beyond broken.
awesome-alpaca-ace | 4 hours ago
I got 3 offers after I graduated. In the tech industry no less.
Ssshizzzzziit | 13 hours ago
And then the Dow Jones shot up, because of course it did. I've heard it many times, half the earth could be carved off. Zombie hordes could be maurading through the streets and the Dow would be up 500pts.
karbaayen | 4 hours ago
Trump and the “republican” policies have absolutely destroyed the US economy. Most don’t realize it’s a dead man walking. Here in Canada, we just added 75,000 jobs in July and our unemployment rate is the lowest in 2 years.
Fragrant_Entry9232 | 11 hours ago
The stock market is extremely overvalued, pe ratios are sky high. If it wasnt for the tariff refunds stolen from the tariff payer, us, and gifted to some of these companies things would be even worse.
thecodeofsilence | 5 hours ago
So to that end, why did the markets rally today on overvalued stocks and a shitty jobs report?
Everything you said was true, yet markets went UP today—on a major jobs miss.
I don’t get it.
hypekit | 5 hours ago
Bad jobs = no rate hike = stonks go up
Too good jobs = maybe rate hike = stonks go down
Fragrant_Entry9232 | 3 hours ago
Do you know nothing from Warren buffet and munger? They have restated thr famous warning by economist John Maynard Keynes: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
the_millenial_falcon | 8 hours ago
Why is this a surprise to absolutely anyone? Corporations have been laying off people in droves and anecdotally the job market is a nightmare.
DiligentAd7956 | 12 hours ago
The employment figures over the past two years have severely overstated the market's strength. Revisions erased nearly one million previously reported jobs, revealing that employment growth has actually flatlined.
061826heart | 13 hours ago
Wall Street and broader economy are just entirely different things now.
It’s very similar to comparing the zoo and the great outdoors. Animals in captivity don’t behave the same way in the wild. I’ll let you all figure out which is the zoo and which is the wild between 18 Broad Street, Manhattan and Main Street, USA.
BigvalBROski | 13 hours ago
I thought we were supposed to keep cash on the sidelines and wait for the crash?…. the market has exploded and people are making money hand over fist while all the holders just sit and wait….. were we duped?
davidw223 | 13 hours ago
Yes. As the old adage goes, “time in the market beats timing the market.”
throwaway00119 | 8 hours ago
I’m gonna assume this is sarcasm.
im_a_goat_factory | 10 hours ago
Only people without much common sense have kept their money out of the market
Jacqueline_Hiide | 12 hours ago
Yeah probably. On average the market goes up so just buy a little bit whenever you get paid and check in 1-4 times a year.
BlueRoller | 13 hours ago
Let me know when you buy
maskedmarvel199 | 11 hours ago
Who ever said to keep cash on the sidelines? There's a mountain of evidence that shows timing the market doesn't work.
scolbert08 | 4 hours ago
Redditors constantly say this shit
drawkbox | 8 hours ago
It is all manipulation and when that is going on you gotta stay in.
CauliflowerDaffodil | 7 hours ago
If you're a doomer, keep your money under your mattress for as long as you want. The rest of are riding this bullet train and enjoying the ride. See you on the other side if/when you get there.
Elegant-Lawfulness25 | 13 hours ago
It should be mentioned that July was a good jobs report month for Canada. Not that the trade war was the only economic factor but the two economies are linked and policy does matter.
Standby_fire | 12 hours ago
This will un doubtedly be corrected / increased at the revision date. Also most likely spark a call for less reporting as past un favorable reporting has led to.
vertigo3pc | 6 hours ago
Only 4 months of Trump's Presidency have they revised the previously reported numbers higher than initially reported. Every other month has been revised down. Only 1 month in 2024 had a positive revision; all others were negative as well.
This is a problem since Biden's Administration, and with the gutting of the BLS and lack of new approach to calculating actual unemployment (people who want to work, but cannot find work, including people who work gig economy work in attempts to make ends meet).
Johnnadawearsglasses | 13 hours ago
You mean the market that's up today? What is the shock exactly? I feel like sensationalism in markets journalism isn't exactly productive. But yeah. Not good.
DadIsVeryMad | 13 hours ago
I thank god every day that my job is really, really hard to cut loose because I'm cheaper than hiring an MSP or an Agentic bullshit helper.
ISSO's baby, we're invincible.. for now.
BlueRoller | 13 hours ago
Lol are you? I think a junior with a $1k/mon Claude budget can fill that gap
DadIsVeryMad | 12 hours ago
Luckily my companies CTO fucking hates AI shit so I'm steady as long as he maintains his hatred.
BlueRoller | 12 hours ago
Haha foster that
-whis | 5 hours ago
Bunch of people in this sub that can’t comprehend the economy does not equal stock markets.
Hell, theres a reason the only posts that get comments here relate to some vague picture of a trading view chart on a 15m time frame or an annoyingly biased article.
Before I get downvoted, Trump is a dingus along with the rest of his cronies - never voted for him.
But why are we associating economic figures with the stock market when in the long run, they tend to be sparsely correlated at best.
Yes the job market sucks, but that does not discount the Mag 7 Capex that realizes as smaller company profits who are building out the AI supply chain.
$100 put into NVDA is not the same as $100 put into the 400th company in a market weighted index.
You’d think this sub would understand that, but here we are thinking that a bad jobs print should tank the market 10%.
I_Fuck_Whales | 12 hours ago
Market is +0.60% today. Wall Street must find it so horrendous… Come on… market is gonna keep ripping along so long as all this inflation keeps up and tech remains hot.
Things aren’t as bad as the internet would have you believe.
burnthatburner1 | 8 hours ago
The market is up because a bad jobs report means less chance of a rate hike. Not because things are fine.
RealisticForYou | 11 hours ago
Consumers keep spending money while wage inflation is at 4% YOY...job changers at 7%. Banks have reported low default rates as consumers continue to pay mortgages and credit cards.
Businesses will slow spending until post November as the playing field becomes clearer. This cycle has been with us for decades and this November will determine how much power he will lose.
Businesses aren't stupid. Why won't spend money until you know what next year will look like.
burnthatburner1 | 8 hours ago
>Businesses will slow spending until post November as the playing field becomes clearer. This cycle has been with us for decades and this November will determine how much power he will lose.
>Businesses aren't stupid. Why won't spend money until you know what next year will look like.
What are you imagining the business mindset being here? You think companies are going to increase spending/hiring if the GOP does better than expected in the election? If so, why?
RealisticForYou | 6 hours ago
GOP better than expected? lol…no don’t think so.
There is a long list of changes that can occur, if you listen to political news.
For one example…If the GOP loses at least one chamber, the “No Wars Act” may have legs to pass. Congress could put a stop to this war in Iran which could prevent a world wide economic catastrophe. This war is illegal while just about every GOP member hates it but does not have the balls to stop it.
“The No War through Reconciliation Act prevents Congress from abusing that process to fund an unauthorized war. Since this war began, 6,000 people have died, including 1,701 civilians, over 254 children and at least 13 U.S. Service Members.”
Also, if the Dems win back even “The House” there will be more probing into Caligula and his finances. This week, Capital One Bank announced they had closed Caligula‘s bank account due to claims of money laundering.
https://www.npr.org/2026/08/02/g-s1-136834/capital-one-trump-bank-anti-money-laundering
A few months back, I heard Caligula ask his supporters to vote during midterms. He said if he loses support he thinks he will be impeached…. and, this time the rest of the Epstein files will be exposed as the head of committees will be Democrat controlled.
And the list goes on…and on.
Consumers and businesses are watching this data as both need relief from high gas prices and inflation. And if this war continues it will only get worse as winter months are around the corner when gas and oil will be needed the most. There could be major shifts in policies after midterms that could affect money and politics.
burnthatburner1 | 6 hours ago
So you’re suggesting that business hiring will spike if Dems do better than expected?
Just trying to distill your point, which still escapes me.
RealisticForYou | 6 hours ago
Who’s to say. It depends what The House and The Senate plan to do to help consumers and businesses. Consumer spending is 70% of the U.S. economy. If Congress can find financial relief for consumers, businesses may become more confident to hire again.
I hear interviews with business leaders. Many say they would like to hire but have no confidence to do so, especially if the threat of inflation could cause interest rates to spike, which will increase business loan costs. Seems like everything is riding on the outcome of this war. Dems will fight for this war to end if they have more control and more voting power.
RealisticForYou | 5 hours ago
And here is more crazy data that Congress can fight for.
Currently, oil tankers are taking crazy routes out of the Mideast to transport oil. One major route is through the Panama Canal. I heard today that the Panama Canal moves ships by using fresh water. Unfortunately, with a constant threat of South America drought, there isn’t enough water to push larger oil tankers through the canal.
This oil data doesn’t get any better. New members voted into Congress can fight for this war to end.
DJMagicHandz | 9 hours ago
*Buying using credit.
RealisticForYou | 8 hours ago
Like most people I haven't used cash in years. But can consumers pay off their credit debt is the real question. Time will tell.
CauliflowerDaffodil | 7 hours ago
>Things aren’t as bad as ~~the internet~~ reddit would have you believe.
FIFO
madeapizza | 12 hours ago
This website doesn’t like positive numbers because it disagrees with their priors. They’ve been predicting a crash due to Trump/AI/“greed” for two years now and the economy and market keeps humming.
Market up 13% YTD…
7818 | 8 hours ago
Inflation and USD devaluation kinda make that 13% growth pretty negligible.
AntitheistArchangel | 13 hours ago
Could a hot inflation number next week cause the market to price in a hike in September again, or will the market still think the risk to the job market is too great?
player89283517 | 13 hours ago
Some of this may be seasonal. Local governments and state governments did all their layoffs around the budget cycle/fiscal year which starts July 1st. I work in local government so that’s what I personally experienced. This may (hopefully) be temporary.
RealisticForYou | 11 hours ago
This makes sense for sure.
Long-Blood | 13 hours ago
Once again, markets are sure the fed will continue to stimulate this disaster of an economy that cant hold itself up without big daddy government artificially manipulating its currency
CauliflowerDaffodil | 6 hours ago
Lower job numbers are never good but it's not the doom most TDSers are hoping for. Most of the job losses were concentrated in government jobs, which happens every year around this time because it's seasonal, and in the leisure and hospitality sector which is due to the world Cup coming to an end.