This subreddit should enable sharing and discussing economic research and news from the perspective of economists. Academic work and summaries are welcome. Image and video submissions are not allowed.
--
If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.
I dunno, maybe if you wanted lower rates you shouldn't have started a completely unnecessary, unending war that puts a lot of upward pressure on prices.....
Demand for labor in higher paying roles, mid-level wages, has absolutely cratered. As evidenced by job creation since 2023.
Demand for people who will work for low level wages is still high, but that wage will not suffice against the cost of living in America. Worse, the humans who would work for that wage still need shelter, still need to feed themselves, still need healthcare, transportation, etc, creating more inflation in all those areas.
We have massive, massive imbalance right now in our economy in how wages are being earned and what the cost of basic living is. Bringing in more humans and paying them next to nothing makes it worse. Period.
I’m referring only to the deportation of people that otherwise would have been in the labor pool, everything else you mention is a confounding variable to my point. Whatever demand reduction for labor you refer to is not as a result of deportations.
Hasn’t aggregate demand largely been driven by the top 10% for some time now? The skew towards those being deported is low wage earners/low spenders, the expected result would be higher required wages to replace production (ie increased pricing of goods to support higher wages), lower overall production despite this (some low desirability jobs simply won’t be replaced even if higher wages are offered—ie lower supply of goods/services), and yet still similar overall demand in the current K shaped economy. It’s absolutely inflationary in the current context.
Its not, since higher wages also increase spending. In addition even though there are fewer works we are crazy productive so even with less workers it wont have that large of an impact on demand to even out.
I’m simply asking for evidence that the higher spending due to greater wage bargaining outweighs the reduction in aggregate demand from a reduced work force.
Research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago evaluated the exact trade-off between disemployment and consumer spending. They modeled a modest federal minimum wage hike using historical adult disemployment elasticities (–0.25). [1] The result: Despite accounting for job losses, the hike generated a $48 billion boost in aggregate household spending in the immediate year following, demonstrating that the spending injection from higher wages net-outweighed the job destruction drag.
Granted not exactly the same but similar effects .
I don’t have a data set on hand, but the useful context is that the most common deportees - people of Hispanic descent - are usually poorer, and typically aren’t massive consumers due to low discretionary income. As such, their removal from the labor market, especially as it tends to be in physical labor jobs like farming, has a greater impact on labor costs for things everybody uses like food than it does for demand for consumer goods, which they typically weren’t major buyers of to begin with.
Huh this made me think. About this the opposite way around. The deportations reduce labor supply and also consumption demand. So which one is greater, the demand or the supply reduction? I'm inclined to thing the second.
> Isn’t the total workforce smaller, reducing aggregate demand?
here's the problem, each worker adds more supply than they create demand when you look at the middle lower end. That's usually because what they do doesnt scale globally its more regional.
It’s inflationary because producers have to pay higher wages to replace lower cost workers who are being deported. The deportations are also a drag on GDP as fewer people are working and producing goods and revenue. Double bad.
People don't want to face the fact that if we don't have immigration, then we don't have GDP growth. (most likely) 2026 could be the first year in the history of the USA that the population shrinks and if the trend continues into 2027 it almost certainly will be on the decline. If that happens, oh boy look out...
I cannot give you a quantisation in numbers - that would be a years study. BUT:
The deported ppl were not highly paid wallstreet banksters or managers, but mostly in low salary jobs - so probably no much impact on the general demand side. It is known that the demand in US is mainly determined by the wealthier part of the population.
On the other hand: In the low salary jobs the migrants had, like carwashing, agriculture, meat production and packing, restaurants etc it is hard or impossible to find replacement from US citizens for those salaries - so ist highly probable the firms either reduce production (supply shortage - price driver) or increase salary (labor costs) - or a combination of both. Depending on the labor cost intensity of the industry you focus on it has different impacts on prices - but e.g. in fruit and vegetable farming labor is a sizeable cost factor. In mass produced stuff like corn or wheat or soja certainly less.
But there are also chain effects - if you look at a Burger chain e.g. : The burgermeat, the salad and then the guy at the grill - all effected by labor costs in low salary jobs.
I think it depends on the individual regarding their particular contributions to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply. Everybody, including non-immigrants, is part of this equation.
Consider Person A who works for free but produces 1 billion dollars of X. They will add nothing to AD, but added a lot to AS, which should result in net deflation.
Person B works for exactly what they produced and spends everything, spending 1 billion on AD, while also producing 1 billion of X. Frankly, I'm not certain what the net result would be. I think no net effect?
Person C gets paid 1 billion dollars but produces nothing, and spends everything. That will certainly cause an inflationary effect because they only added to AD.
I am skipping over a lot of details like expenses, surplus, etc. but this was meant as a theoretical exercise. At the end of the day, AD=AS across the population (with imports/exports as well), and deviations are the de/inflation parts. I think that an illegal immigrant fits closer to Person A than Person C, but I'm just making assumptions that should be taken with a grain of salt, especially given that I'm unsure of Person B's net effect.
Deporting the low/underpaid workers would reduce aggregate demand, but not by much. These are people making less than minimum wage. OTOH, losing the cheap labor will spike wages, therefore raising prices.
Also, bargaining power for wages is not great in an automation boom. And aggregate demand decreases have not generally affected prices even though they being reported. Companies are reducing their workforce and cutting services to meet quarterly and waiting for the consumer to “get used to it.” Constantly increasing quarterly profit expectations will destroy some of these companies.
McDonalds raised prices very high then cut back a little, but is having a hard time reclaiming the idea of cheap fast food as are a lot of these places.
And finally, the amount of people being deported vs hiding and not working is a numbers game. If you roll up to a field with 20 illegal workers and deport them, the aggregate demand is not reduced very much in a nation of 300 million however the supply chain disruption to that farm depending on what it’s making is much greater a single modern farm feeds thousands of people or even hundreds of thousands. as well, the administration is focused on people they can easily get to which are often people with valid visas that they then cancel and deport or asylum seekers versus people who are not in the system at all. They have addresses for those people and they do not for your stereotypical illegal immigrant.
Could also reduce the supply. I understand a lot of sectors are not able to find workers and can’t continue their businesses without migrant workers… also tariffs on the wood from Canada that builds houses, tariffs on the steel/aluminum from Canada that builds everything, and the shock to energy prices from losing the war with Iran and disrupting oil trade routes. This will likely cause a new shock where investors further dump treasuries, because now either 1) The Fed lowers rates and investors dump bonds because the financial system has become politicized or 2) The Fed raises rates, causing existing bond prices to fall.
Vance is not going to be the heir to MAGA. Why does he do the things he does? If he wants a political future he really should be trying to separate himself from Trump like this.
They are betting Trump doesn't make it to the end of his term, ideally they just need him to make until Jan 21 2027. Then they get 2 years to reprogram the base into believing Vance is thier great savior.
Let's never forget that Vance is incapable of even ordering donuts. He's got the personality of a moldy Croc. Maga isn't seeing Vance as the heir apparent.
It is not his real name - it was his name at birth. Bowman is his bio father but left when Vance was a toddler. His mom changed his name when he was six to her new husband's last name, and then Vance eventually changed his last name to his mom's maiden name long after she divorced that guy.
Vance is a snake and a grifter but he had nothing whatsoever to do with his name being changed from James Donald Bowman, and his legal name is JD Vance.
Vance has an ideology, but he has always been anti intervention.
But this is the guy who is an acolyte of Americas Hitler, which was his own words. He is saying and doing anything to get power, being inflammatory and saying things he knows aren't true.
No hes part of the dark enlightenment ideology. He was plantee by peter thiel to bring about the end of democracy in the United States and move towards a techbro ran districting system think hunger games. Not even hyperbolic Thiel believes things like democracy or empathy are the biggest threats to humanity.
I don't doubt for a second he wouldn't drop that ideology like a hat if what's best for JD required it. He had what sounds like a pretty traumatic childhood and I think it made him into a chameleon as a survival strategy.
I had the exact theory in my mind as well. I grew up in a school rife with bullying around the same time Vance did. It was fairly traumatic avoiding being hunted by jocks as a weird and smart kid.
Years later I was still harboring a lot of pent up rage and cynicism about of the world. Eventually, things got better but I don’t think that’s the case for JD. I think his life experiences drove him to seek power at all costs and now he’s one of the (to quote the great Sir Michael Caine) “some men just want to watch the world burn” kind of villains.
The part the scares me most is people assume he’s an idiot. Which couldn’t be farther from the truth.
Glad to hear you made it out more intact than him. Yeah, people find different ways to deal with their issues. From one POV childhood is the time where you get calibrated to the world. To what is expected, what works, what doesn't. And he wasnt in a happy, stable environment. And what he seemed to get out of it is is that lying, manipulation and adapting to get along with whatever the strongest characters around you do work.
I don't think he's an idiot, but I don't think he's some kind of a mastermind either. He's a tool that Thiel chose and that made Trump choose him, in order to get the SV money.
That is so far off base. He is a Thiel puppet. He is beholden to the billionaires. You don't wonder how he came out of nowhere, became a senator for less than a term, and is now VP? That kind ascendence in DC in that timescale just doesn't happen unless someone is pulling strings behind the scenes.
Obama at least makes sense though. Constitutional scholar, great orator. An outsider to the corporate Clinton wing of the party. He saw a chance to catch lightning in a bottle being the first black president and he did it.
What's with the curious omission of articles in your comments? If I didn't know better, I'd think you were a native Slavic speaker; dare I say maybe even Russian?
Yeah, please. The guy who called Trump America’s Hitler, folded the moment he was offered some power. That guy does not have his country’s best interest at heart.
Again, he's clearly a sociopath. I don't know why it's not more obvious to more people. Have you listened to him talk? You can basically see the gears in his brain whirring as he contemplates what to say that will put him at the greatest advantage. He's barely even human.
We are lucky that he is a black hole of charisma. Some people I talked to on here after the 2028 election said he was a “cross party rockstar,” and a young Bill Clinton.
He’s a post-liberal. They believe in more isolation. Being against the war I completely believe. He seems to be less pro-Israel compared to the rest of the admin, so more reason to believe he would not have been drawn to the war like Trump was. That being said tariffs and all the anti-ally shit is still part of that ideology. Trump likes it because it allows his corruption. Vance supports it for its ideals.
You’re giving him way too much credit. Vance is a fascist just like his daddy Peter Thiel. Might equals right. He will lie and cheat to no end in order to gain power. There’s no moral centre there, just more lies and more greed.
“They’re eating the dogs. They’re eating the cats…”
Vance cares about himself and getting as much power as possible just like Trump. You don't go from calling someone cultural heroin, which is a legit devestating insult, to licking their boots enough to that they offer you the VP position if you actually care about your country.
Everyone with a brain new what a second Trump term would mean, and as odious as Mr. Bowman is he's not dumb, but suckling up to Trump's infected teats was the fastest way for Vance to advace his career. Think about how young this guy is. He didn't even finish his first term as a senator. He could have rode out the 2024 election as a Trump skeptic. He wasn't up for reelection till 2028 so Trump couldn't try to primary him and he could have thrown his hat into the 2028 presidential race at the end of his term.
If this is something you actually believe and not just a hot take you need to seriously reconsider your thought processes. Its so incredibly wrong that I am struggling to come up with a comparison.
I actually do believe Vance wants what's best for his country. What he believes is best for the country.
I don't think he is a smart guy though.
>He could have rode out the 2024 election as a Trump skeptic. He wasn't up for reelection till 2028 so Trump couldn't try to primary him and he could have thrown his hat into the 2028 presidential race at the end of his term.
That would be smart. Also losing some weight and working on appearance, impression would be smart.
lowering the rate isnt for us, silly, it is for their loans they take with collateral that is non existant unless they sell it, which they wouldnt do, bc they can just borrow against it for infinity.
It’s also because our national debt is so high and a large amount of bonds are scheduled to roll over in the next 1-2 years. This will be at higher rates, and thus more expensive, if they can’t convince the Fed to lower interest rates.
If I recall correctly, running large deficits, particularly after accumulating a total debt load substantially greater than GDP, tends to put upward pressure on interest rate on the long end of the curve.
>Vance added, “We’re doing a lot of things to try to keep those interest rates down"
This is a lie.
The Trump administration has done everything in their power to spur inflation. Stupid tariffs, starting a war with Iran, harsh immigration policy. Trump and JD Vance has done absolutely nothing to reduce pricing pressure that would allow for interest rates to be lowered.
JD Vance is a liar. He's also stupid and weak. But also a liar.
Devaluing of currency is easy to blame on external factors and these guys love pointing at the stock market like every American will see equal benefits from it. So the paper gains argument is there.
But on a larger scheme, this is exactly what they mean when they say “the country will grow out of debt.” It doesn’t magically result in paying off debt, it’s literally issuing short term bonds and higher and higher rates to buy back longterm.
Inflation doesn’t impact their donors - they either pass the increased costs to their customers, or for wealthy individuals they see higher gains on assets that typically negate the inflation.
This is essentially a shadow tax on Americans and most are too dumb to understand it.
But GDP growth is never reported in nominal terms, only in real terms. Nominal GDP growth wouldn't even be noticed. If you want to come up with an ulterior motive, high inflation and low interest rates will reduce the debt/GDP ratio.
In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the… Anyone? Anyone?… the Great Depression, passed the… Anyone? Anyone? The tariff bill? The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act? Which, anyone? Raised or lowered?… raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.
He’s a liar and as squirmy and weak as they come, but he’s very much NOT stupid.
He has dragged his own wife and kids to appease the worst people on earth, but he’s got a very quick mind. He’s also a bit of a survivor and they have less morals, typically. It’s a dangerous pairing and it’s to our own detriment to quickly dismiss him. He has very little charisma, but we are talking about voters that have been almost completely drained of rational thought at this point as they are almost literally hooked up to machines to propagandize.
They also think the Fed controls all the interest rates. The Fed just controls short term interest rates. Longer term rates, such as the 5 and 10 year rates which have more bearing on credit card and home loan interest rates, are controlled by the market.
Probably Russian or Indian, "manufactory" is not a word anyone actually uses, it's not being used correctly here, and it's misspelled in one of the two places they used it.
Trying to lay the blame on the Fed instead of the administration, that he is a part of, for the reason why inflation and the bond markets being high. It wouldn’t be like that if you guys were consistent and not decided policy by the mood you are having that day.
When did he get so chatty? Seems like you haven’t heard much about him for months and suddenly this week the twerp won’t shut up. I like him better when he’s silent and I forget he exists
More than likely they are positioning him to take over in 2027 after the midterms. Everything is indicating they are expecting the house to switch to a democrat majority and there is a real risk that the senate also become a dem majority. I suspect if that happens w/e republicans that are not MAGA will side with democrats to impeach. Personally, I don’t want the Dems to impeach rather keep Trump on a tight leash and prevent Vance from getting what he wants
JD, You had complete control of both the House and Senate, which you used to pass a budget reconciliation package that actually increased the debt, putting further pressure on interest rates. If you and the President were serious (which you’re not), you would have taken advantage of this rare opportunity to put the United States on a more responsible fiscal path.
Warsh is playing pretendhawkish! He’s beholden to Trump, and will not vote to increase rates.
Instead, he’s trying to persuade his colleagues at the Fed to accept his Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate as the rate which FOMC is supposed to focus on, and this is the rate that will low-ball the inflation numbers closer to 2%.
Just watch him. Warsh is no hawk when it comes to action (ie voting). When it comes to talking, he wants to be perceived as a hawk, but watch his actions, and not his words
For the sake of the country, and the world, I hope you’re right. But I have strong reservations about this, when you consider the linkages between Warsh and Trump:
Marsh is married to Jane Lauder (Estée Lauder heiress). Her father Ronald Lauder has been Trump's friend since the 1960s
Ronald Lauder donated $5 million to Trump's PAC in March 2025 and is a close informal advisor
This multi-decade personal & financial relationship creates perceived and actual alignment between Warsh's family and Trump
Warsh is / was also a partner at Duquesne Family Office with Stanley Druckenmiller, who also helped get Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) into the administration — creating a tight-knit group with shared allegiances. Though Druckenmiller has recently criticised Bessent for trying to implement Operation Twist to rein in long term bond yields, there’s no denying that Bessent and Warsh are unlikely to contradict each other when it comes to interest rate alignment. And Bessent wants lower rates, irrespective of inflation, because that what’s Trump wants
warsh has de facto raised rates. By removing forward guidance the market has responded. He's hoping that will be enough to put pressure on inflation, it wont.
Warsh is definitely a hawk, he was talking about raising interest rates to fight inflation during the Great Recession when inflation was already negative.
Well Vance, if this administration weren't a bunch f*cking clowns and imbeciles, the Fed wouldn't be in the position where they really can't lower rates without spiking inflation.
Lol. Help? Maybe don’t fuck everything up and you won’t need help right? Or how about you pull yourself up by your bootstraps couchboy. I bet guillotines would help at this point in time
Is Vance and Trump stupid? The economy is hot and running hot. Things are expensive and people are still spending like crazy. The economy has been running hot for five years now. If you reduce rates, it’ll run even hotter. Things will get even more expensive because they’ll be more demand since people will be able to borrow money cheaper. You reduce rates to stimulate the economy to get it to an environment that we’re currently living in.
Vance is actually quite ignorant. I made a comment above - from personal interactions I can tell you that he’s just not that bright but very eager to please.
I agree but the interest payment on national debt is becoming a problem. This administration would lower rates it goes with their goal to lower rates, weaken the dollar, and pump assets ie business, stocks, crypto, and housing. For national debt the interest rates on national debt would reduce and inflation would sky rocket essentially inflating the debt away and then the national debt problem is solved in a decade or two the US already dod this after world war 2.
I’m sure it would be fantastic to have some help, but in an economic environment where inflation is running higher thanks to his imbecile handler, the Fed can’t really do anything other than fight it.
It has 2 mandates… Maximum employment and price stability.
They can’t help you fix a problem you’ve created.
If only the government had the power to manage the federal budget then the government wouldn’t need the Fed’s help. Oh well. Big miss by the founders I guess.
Do any of this people understand ANYTHING about the economy? They handcuff the Fed then ask them to fix what they are actively tearing down. I don’t have a degree but I do understand the basics. They just don’t seem to apply any amount of critical thinking to these issues.
Yeah, let’s lower interest rates so inflation can climb even higher, that is a brilliant idea! It’s almost like he doesn’t understand how an economy works.
Simple. They are shifting blame. Most people don't really understand economics or the the reason there is independence between the government and the Fed. So by putting out bogus rhetoric they hope to further trick the people into believing that this isn't their doing but instead it is the Fed's fault.
Hmm.. what is most inflationary thing the US government could do (checks notes).. ah! Start a war in middle east that drives up oil prices for the whole world.
And this is exactly why the Fed must be independent from politicians. They would make decisions based on their personal need rather than appropriate factors.
Now they are asking the followers to choose between economics 101 and them. Always a fun game to ask: is it shameless gaslighting or do they not even have two real honest advisors to rub against each other.
Ah, the panicking is showing. A higher interest rate bump will slow the flow of money towards the bubble. If the bubble stops growing exponentially, then it will pop. Can't have that before the midterms. Otherwise, mlre progressives will get elected and there will be no bailout money for papa Thiel
Help with what, exactly? Bessent is now trying to lower rates by buying bonds, effectively fighting against the Fed’s attempt to lower inflation. He’s trying to circumvent the Fed, but the Fed still exists and still has its mandate so it may end up raising rates just to stop Bessent from causing more inflation.
They want everyone else to be so nice to them and give them everything while they go ahead and break things. I mean, don’t you get it, they have to troll canada to ignite their base, why is Canada upset? Just be nice to us and it’ll pass. Don’t you get it? We have to threaten to invade Greenland to energize our voters. They like the energy, we’re not serious, can we send some troops there just to pretend? We will buy it from you if you let us actually. Oh what the fuck why are you mad?? How dare you be angry at US, we subsidize your defense spending so you can spend it on healthcare! We own you!!! Wait whh are you actually posturing against us? No wait take us seriously.
These people are idiots. Basic supply and demand. right? If you lower interest rates, then you increase the supply of money… which is where we see inflation, no?
Increase rates and you reduce the supply of money to hopefully slow down the inflation. I for one would put money into CDs (reducing the supply of money) if rates go higher. Think back to the early 80s.
Problem is, all these rich fcks want free money. They borrow to live while wrecking the working class.
Vance wants the Fed to cut rates to help lower mortgages. Would cutting the Fed funds rate even do that? Lower rates would signal to the markets higher inflation leading to higher longer term rates. Mortgages are tied to 10 year treasuries. Not short term rates. Those administration’s view on rates makes no sense
Funny, Canadians are thinking the same thing about their sovereignty that’s being threatened. We keep hearing Americans are against it… yet the threats and attacks keep coming.
Americans hate being reminded of the mess they’ve made, they’d rather be the victim of themselves than do anything remotely productive that may cause a temporary hardship.
Reagan warned us about government saying they were here to help, and for once I’m inclined to agree. And that’s how bad it’s gotten, I’m agreeing with Reagan.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.
Well this administration is definitely known for being truthful. Insofar as you take the exact opposite of whatever comes out of their mouth and you know that is what they are actually trying to accomplish.
This is to pander to the lowest level of intelligence. It being made a scapegoat for their strategy of creating global chaos.
They have "changed the game" and now the world is unpredictable by nature. We have these contradicting situations now of increased cost of living which would lean to a rate decrease BUT now its not black and white with money production/ debt generation occuring.
We are in a very weird time right now where a rate increase or decrease are technically not the wrong option when variables are looked at independently.
A rate decrease with all variables considered would further destroy America and inflation would sky rocket...but this is why they're asking for it.
The call is coming from inside the house, the plan is to destroy the current America from within. Rate decreases with these psycho paths in charge would be one of the final nails.
But, while lowering interest rates might make it easier to get a mortgage, wouldn’t making mortgages easier to get increase the demand and therefore the price of houses?
So, sure, the Fed lowering interest rates might lower the interest rate on a mortgage. But, the total principal on the mortgage might increase…
Resign and submit to arrest, there you have Americans relief. So out of touch and I’ll add the mods here are too! Since apparently only a paragraph is approved on this shithole
Comically enough, long term rates would likely go down if the Fed increased the overnight rate. He’s just too obtuse to understand this.
I met Vance about 10ish years ago (around the time that his book was taking off). He was working for a firm that I knew and we had mutual friends given that we were both vets. I was shocked at how fucking stupid he was. I felt bad bc the premise of his book was basically how people look down on him bc of his background - I am a southerner so I was eager to connect and relate w him. He was so ignorant and eager to show off his limited experience and shitty reasoning that it was frankly embarrassing.
Would be nice to stop unnecessary oil wars, billions in tariffs, trade wars, government spending resulting in a $40 trillion debt, tax cuts for the wealthy and major corporations, etc.
The executive branch isn’t supposed to even meet with Fed officials informally, much less comment on interest rates like this. This is so fucking abnormal just a reminder. Fed should increase rates by even more just to fucking make this twerp and his dillhole boss get fucked
Stop your unnecessary war that's costing billions? These people are genuinely idiots. I don't know if I hit my character limit to answer, but oh, there it goes. 140.
Funny thing is they are helping them by not enabling the rapid inflation they’re trying so hard to get. That would destroy the stability and credibility of the dollar permanently
Unfortunately he wants "help" to destroy the economy and bankrupt the working man so he can come around, buy everything up and then rent it back to us later on
They pass trillions of dollars worth of tax cuts for the rich, they cut government programs that benefit the poor and working class, they cut environmental regulations, ICE is funded like our military, they cut foreign aid, they tariff other countries just because (except Russia and North Korea)…a Maga wishlist of policies and they need help from the Fed like it’s The Great Recession?
Economics-ModTeam | 11 hours ago
This subreddit should enable sharing and discussing economic research and news from the perspective of economists. Academic work and summaries are welcome. Image and video submissions are not allowed.
--
If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.
Spez_is-a-nazi | 21 hours ago
I dunno, maybe if you wanted lower rates you shouldn't have started a completely unnecessary, unending war that puts a lot of upward pressure on prices.....
alilhillbilly | 20 hours ago
Also tariffs (aka middle-class tax increase), tax cuts for the rich, firing all the food inspectors, deporting tons of cheap labor...
Etc etc etc
Prestigious_Load1699 | 18 hours ago
I’m ignorant of the current literature, but is mass deportation considered inflationary?
I could see it reducing aggregate demand, while also increasing bargaining power for wages.
Glad to read any response!
Greatest-Comrade | 17 hours ago
Labor costs are an input cost for producers, so yes it’s inflationary.
Prestigious_Load1699 | 17 hours ago
Isn’t the total workforce smaller, reducing aggregate demand?
I.e. less people to spend money.
Is this considered a lesser factor overall?
Mataelio | 16 hours ago
The demand for labor hasn’t changed, so if the supply has decreased that would drive wages up which is inflationary.
082426grateful | 16 hours ago
>demand for labor hasn’t changed
Gonna stop this back and forth convo right there.
Demand for labor in higher paying roles, mid-level wages, has absolutely cratered. As evidenced by job creation since 2023.
Demand for people who will work for low level wages is still high, but that wage will not suffice against the cost of living in America. Worse, the humans who would work for that wage still need shelter, still need to feed themselves, still need healthcare, transportation, etc, creating more inflation in all those areas.
We have massive, massive imbalance right now in our economy in how wages are being earned and what the cost of basic living is. Bringing in more humans and paying them next to nothing makes it worse. Period.
Mataelio | 16 hours ago
I’m referring only to the deportation of people that otherwise would have been in the labor pool, everything else you mention is a confounding variable to my point. Whatever demand reduction for labor you refer to is not as a result of deportations.
082426grateful | 15 hours ago
Agree with that statement. If anything, should create wage inflation, which is its own set of problems
Prestigious_Load1699 | 16 hours ago
I refer to aggregate demand - total spending on finished goods and services.
With fewer workers, there are fewer people to spend.
I’m asking if that reduction is outweighed by wage increases.
PengoMaster | 16 hours ago
It’s not entirely clear cut but in general the drop in labor has a greater impact than the drop in demand. So net, it is considered inflationary.
mybigwh1tecock | 13 hours ago
Sure but of all the factors that drive inflation, WAGE GROWTH is by far the one I’m most ok with.
Glad_Application2728 | 13 hours ago
But wages aren’t growing
CorporateKnowledge5 | 15 hours ago
Hasn’t aggregate demand largely been driven by the top 10% for some time now? The skew towards those being deported is low wage earners/low spenders, the expected result would be higher required wages to replace production (ie increased pricing of goods to support higher wages), lower overall production despite this (some low desirability jobs simply won’t be replaced even if higher wages are offered—ie lower supply of goods/services), and yet still similar overall demand in the current K shaped economy. It’s absolutely inflationary in the current context.
LearningAllTheTime | 16 hours ago
Its not, since higher wages also increase spending. In addition even though there are fewer works we are crazy productive so even with less workers it wont have that large of an impact on demand to even out.
Prestigious_Load1699 | 16 hours ago
I understand, my friend.
I’m simply asking for evidence that the higher spending due to greater wage bargaining outweighs the reduction in aggregate demand from a reduced work force.
LearningAllTheTime | 16 hours ago
Research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago evaluated the exact trade-off between disemployment and consumer spending. They modeled a modest federal minimum wage hike using historical adult disemployment elasticities (–0.25). [1]
The result: Despite accounting for job losses, the hike generated a $48 billion boost in aggregate household spending in the immediate year following, demonstrating that the spending injection from higher wages net-outweighed the job destruction drag.
Granted not exactly the same but similar effects .
ThrowRAZod | 16 hours ago
I don’t have a data set on hand, but the useful context is that the most common deportees - people of Hispanic descent - are usually poorer, and typically aren’t massive consumers due to low discretionary income. As such, their removal from the labor market, especially as it tends to be in physical labor jobs like farming, has a greater impact on labor costs for things everybody uses like food than it does for demand for consumer goods, which they typically weren’t major buyers of to begin with.
HunMyy | 16 hours ago
Huh this made me think. About this the opposite way around. The deportations reduce labor supply and also consumption demand. So which one is greater, the demand or the supply reduction? I'm inclined to thing the second.
WantCookiesNow | 15 hours ago
Right now, at least as far as I’m hearing/reading, consumer spending has not measurably decreased sufficient to affect inflationary pressure.
Smooth_Phone2 | 16 hours ago
Atleast in housing, it ends up being net neutral.
Willing_Activity_855 | 13 hours ago
remember the workers create things that are in demand.
Willing_Activity_855 | 13 hours ago
> Isn’t the total workforce smaller, reducing aggregate demand?
here's the problem, each worker adds more supply than they create demand when you look at the middle lower end. That's usually because what they do doesnt scale globally its more regional.
alilhillbilly | 11 hours ago
😂
Any_Deal_6993 | 16 hours ago
Wages going up: bad
Greatest-Comrade | 14 hours ago
No not at all in most cases. Wages increasing is typically very good actually.
But yes, it’s inflationary. And combined with other inflationary factors it can certainly get bad.
Any_Deal_6993 | 14 hours ago
Wow, did you figure that out all on your own?
Willing_Activity_855 | 13 hours ago
Only when combined with decreases in output
output goes up + wages go up = good
output goes down + wages go down = hold ye dick bruv.
Yooperplexed | 15 hours ago
It’s inflationary because producers have to pay higher wages to replace lower cost workers who are being deported. The deportations are also a drag on GDP as fewer people are working and producing goods and revenue. Double bad.
Leody | 14 hours ago
People don't want to face the fact that if we don't have immigration, then we don't have GDP growth. (most likely) 2026 could be the first year in the history of the USA that the population shrinks and if the trend continues into 2027 it almost certainly will be on the decline. If that happens, oh boy look out...
Sagronym | 16 hours ago
I cannot give you a quantisation in numbers - that would be a years study. BUT:
The deported ppl were not highly paid wallstreet banksters or managers, but mostly in low salary jobs - so probably no much impact on the general demand side. It is known that the demand in US is mainly determined by the wealthier part of the population.
On the other hand: In the low salary jobs the migrants had, like carwashing, agriculture, meat production and packing, restaurants etc it is hard or impossible to find replacement from US citizens for those salaries - so ist highly probable the firms either reduce production (supply shortage - price driver) or increase salary (labor costs) - or a combination of both. Depending on the labor cost intensity of the industry you focus on it has different impacts on prices - but e.g. in fruit and vegetable farming labor is a sizeable cost factor. In mass produced stuff like corn or wheat or soja certainly less.
But there are also chain effects - if you look at a Burger chain e.g. : The burgermeat, the salad and then the guy at the grill - all effected by labor costs in low salary jobs.
student_of_ | 14 hours ago
I think it depends on the individual regarding their particular contributions to Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply. Everybody, including non-immigrants, is part of this equation.
Consider Person A who works for free but produces 1 billion dollars of X. They will add nothing to AD, but added a lot to AS, which should result in net deflation.
Person B works for exactly what they produced and spends everything, spending 1 billion on AD, while also producing 1 billion of X. Frankly, I'm not certain what the net result would be. I think no net effect?
Person C gets paid 1 billion dollars but produces nothing, and spends everything. That will certainly cause an inflationary effect because they only added to AD.
I am skipping over a lot of details like expenses, surplus, etc. but this was meant as a theoretical exercise. At the end of the day, AD=AS across the population (with imports/exports as well), and deviations are the de/inflation parts. I think that an illegal immigrant fits closer to Person A than Person C, but I'm just making assumptions that should be taken with a grain of salt, especially given that I'm unsure of Person B's net effect.
notnutts | 13 hours ago
Deporting the low/underpaid workers would reduce aggregate demand, but not by much. These are people making less than minimum wage. OTOH, losing the cheap labor will spike wages, therefore raising prices.
beekersavant | 12 hours ago
Also, bargaining power for wages is not great in an automation boom. And aggregate demand decreases have not generally affected prices even though they being reported. Companies are reducing their workforce and cutting services to meet quarterly and waiting for the consumer to “get used to it.” Constantly increasing quarterly profit expectations will destroy some of these companies.
McDonalds raised prices very high then cut back a little, but is having a hard time reclaiming the idea of cheap fast food as are a lot of these places.
And finally, the amount of people being deported vs hiding and not working is a numbers game. If you roll up to a field with 20 illegal workers and deport them, the aggregate demand is not reduced very much in a nation of 300 million however the supply chain disruption to that farm depending on what it’s making is much greater a single modern farm feeds thousands of people or even hundreds of thousands. as well, the administration is focused on people they can easily get to which are often people with valid visas that they then cancel and deport or asylum seekers versus people who are not in the system at all. They have addresses for those people and they do not for your stereotypical illegal immigrant.
Fuzzy-Byte | 13 hours ago
Could also reduce the supply. I understand a lot of sectors are not able to find workers and can’t continue their businesses without migrant workers… also tariffs on the wood from Canada that builds houses, tariffs on the steel/aluminum from Canada that builds everything, and the shock to energy prices from losing the war with Iran and disrupting oil trade routes. This will likely cause a new shock where investors further dump treasuries, because now either 1) The Fed lowers rates and investors dump bonds because the financial system has become politicized or 2) The Fed raises rates, causing existing bond prices to fall.
ironteddybear | 20 hours ago
NYT had some reporting indicating that Vance behind closed doors was very against the Iran war, and now Trump is trying to pin the blame on him lol
Captbv | 19 hours ago
Vance is completely free to set the record straight, all he has to do is tell the truth
LizardmanJoe | 18 hours ago
Yeah but that will piss off the single brain cell that controls the MAGA hivemind so...
Mikestopheles | 18 hours ago
But it would be so funny to watch
vlatheimpaler | 17 hours ago
Vance is not going to be the heir to MAGA. Why does he do the things he does? If he wants a political future he really should be trying to separate himself from Trump like this.
ItsMeSlinky | 16 hours ago
Vance is Thiel’s puppet. If Thiel says jump, Vance says, “Yes sir.”
His fake country “aw shucks” shit is getting old.
Microplasticsharts | 16 hours ago
They are betting Trump doesn't make it to the end of his term, ideally they just need him to make until Jan 21 2027. Then they get 2 years to reprogram the base into believing Vance is thier great savior.
Wombatapus736 | 16 hours ago
Let's never forget that Vance is incapable of even ordering donuts. He's got the personality of a moldy Croc. Maga isn't seeing Vance as the heir apparent.
British_Rover | 18 hours ago
Man the one thing James Bowman is incapable of doing. Telling the truth.
bdd31415 | 16 hours ago
Thank you for this. It’s interesting that the reichsmarschall has dead names. I will now call him by his birth name.
Remote-Letterhead844 | 17 hours ago
Who?????
Dry_Postulate | 16 hours ago
It’s his real name. Kind of a hit on truth to how he goes by a different name
Remote-Letterhead844 | 16 hours ago
Exactly my point in asking the question.
I feel a ton of people don't know basic facts and history these days.
Always good to remind them.
Cheers 🍻
MisinformedGenius | 12 hours ago
It is not his real name - it was his name at birth. Bowman is his bio father but left when Vance was a toddler. His mom changed his name when he was six to her new husband's last name, and then Vance eventually changed his last name to his mom's maiden name long after she divorced that guy.
Vance is a snake and a grifter but he had nothing whatsoever to do with his name being changed from James Donald Bowman, and his legal name is JD Vance.
amusedmisanthrope | 17 hours ago
Vance last told the truth when he called Trump America’s Hitler. He’s in too deep now.
Physical-Dare5059 | 16 hours ago
Which truth?? They have like 4-5 different truths based on which set of “alternate facts” they’re spewing on said day of the week.
DefinitelyWet | 17 hours ago
He remembers what MAGA was bringing to the capital for Mike Pence.
NoPain4551 | 17 hours ago
Tell the truth? Thats gotta be as difficult for them as faithful to their spouses in that regime.
someonehasmygamertag | 20 hours ago
Probably because Vance has a brain. May not like him or his politics but he’s not thick.
DangerousCyclone | 20 hours ago
Vance has an ideology, but he has always been anti intervention.
But this is the guy who is an acolyte of Americas Hitler, which was his own words. He is saying and doing anything to get power, being inflammatory and saying things he knows aren't true.
Severe_Rise8694 | 19 hours ago
Does the name of the ideology start with JD..?
Tresach | 18 hours ago
No hes part of the dark enlightenment ideology. He was plantee by peter thiel to bring about the end of democracy in the United States and move towards a techbro ran districting system think hunger games. Not even hyperbolic Thiel believes things like democracy or empathy are the biggest threats to humanity.
Severe_Rise8694 | 18 hours ago
I don't doubt for a second he wouldn't drop that ideology like a hat if what's best for JD required it. He had what sounds like a pretty traumatic childhood and I think it made him into a chameleon as a survival strategy.
QuickAltTab | 16 hours ago
Haha, dumbest chameleon ever. I thought most sociopaths had pretty adept social manipulation skills, Vance is over here struggling to order donuts.
Level_Physics8620 | 15 hours ago
I had the exact theory in my mind as well. I grew up in a school rife with bullying around the same time Vance did. It was fairly traumatic avoiding being hunted by jocks as a weird and smart kid.
Years later I was still harboring a lot of pent up rage and cynicism about of the world. Eventually, things got better but I don’t think that’s the case for JD. I think his life experiences drove him to seek power at all costs and now he’s one of the (to quote the great Sir Michael Caine) “some men just want to watch the world burn” kind of villains.
The part the scares me most is people assume he’s an idiot. Which couldn’t be farther from the truth.
Severe_Rise8694 | 5 hours ago
Glad to hear you made it out more intact than him. Yeah, people find different ways to deal with their issues. From one POV childhood is the time where you get calibrated to the world. To what is expected, what works, what doesn't. And he wasnt in a happy, stable environment. And what he seemed to get out of it is is that lying, manipulation and adapting to get along with whatever the strongest characters around you do work.
I don't think he's an idiot, but I don't think he's some kind of a mastermind either. He's a tool that Thiel chose and that made Trump choose him, in order to get the SV money.
serpentjaguar | 18 hours ago
No, but he is pretty clearly a sociopath, which for my money is at least as dangerous as idiocy.
Easy-Concentrate2636 | 18 hours ago
If he has a brain, he uses it for nefarious reasons.
chumpandchive | 19 hours ago
does he have a brain or is it jusy peter thiel's sofa thoughts coming out of vances mouth
PunkPirate56364 | 20 hours ago
Probably because Vance actually cares about his country, may not like him or his politics, but he has best interest of his country in mind.
While Trump does things for himself... he will bankrupt entire country and become richer doing that.
FractalBranches | 20 hours ago
That is so far off base. He is a Thiel puppet. He is beholden to the billionaires. You don't wonder how he came out of nowhere, became a senator for less than a term, and is now VP? That kind ascendence in DC in that timescale just doesn't happen unless someone is pulling strings behind the scenes.
D-MAN-FLORIDA | 20 hours ago
The only way that could happen is if he had the charisma of Barack Obama. And, just no.
FractalBranches | 20 hours ago
Obama at least makes sense though. Constitutional scholar, great orator. An outsider to the corporate Clinton wing of the party. He saw a chance to catch lightning in a bottle being the first black president and he did it.
PunkPirate56364 | 19 hours ago
He is Thiel's project, I think Thiel also has best interest of his country in mind.
Do keep in mind that people with noble motivations can be horribly wrong, can end up doing horrible things.
Like Hitler had best interest for his ethnicity in mind, and we got to see how that turned out.
HeftySnow3920 | 17 hours ago
Peter Thiel doesn’t have my best interest in mind maybe yours.
PunkPirate56364 | 10 hours ago
I don't think he has my best interests in mind either.
serpentjaguar | 18 hours ago
What's with the curious omission of articles in your comments? If I didn't know better, I'd think you were a native Slavic speaker; dare I say maybe even Russian?
PunkPirate56364 | 10 hours ago
Good perception. Yep us Slavic speakers do not have articles in our languages so we often skip them when speaking in English language.
Not a Russian speaker though, Croatian.
And not pro-Russian, use that perception to also notice I wasn't actually being pro-Vance. You guys just assume too much.
D-MAN-FLORIDA | 20 hours ago
Pffft. More likely he knows this is another forever war and will ruin his chances in 2028.
ilikepizza2much | 20 hours ago
Yeah, please. The guy who called Trump America’s Hitler, folded the moment he was offered some power. That guy does not have his country’s best interest at heart.
D-MAN-FLORIDA | 20 hours ago
He seems like the type of person to throw his family under the bus if it added a small chance of being president.
serpentjaguar | 18 hours ago
Again, he's clearly a sociopath. I don't know why it's not more obvious to more people. Have you listened to him talk? You can basically see the gears in his brain whirring as he contemplates what to say that will put him at the greatest advantage. He's barely even human.
Creative_Text3018 | 20 hours ago
This is the answer. He does have a brain, to be clear, his motivations with said brain are to push himself forward however he can.
D-MAN-FLORIDA | 20 hours ago
We are lucky that he is a black hole of charisma. Some people I talked to on here after the 2028 election said he was a “cross party rockstar,” and a young Bill Clinton.
Different_Height_157 | 19 hours ago
He’s a post-liberal. They believe in more isolation. Being against the war I completely believe. He seems to be less pro-Israel compared to the rest of the admin, so more reason to believe he would not have been drawn to the war like Trump was. That being said tariffs and all the anti-ally shit is still part of that ideology. Trump likes it because it allows his corruption. Vance supports it for its ideals.
ilikepizza2much | 19 hours ago
You’re giving him way too much credit. Vance is a fascist just like his daddy Peter Thiel. Might equals right. He will lie and cheat to no end in order to gain power. There’s no moral centre there, just more lies and more greed.
“They’re eating the dogs. They’re eating the cats…”
serpentjaguar | 18 hours ago
He's not even a fascist. Say what you want about the tenets of national socialism, but at least it's an ethos.
Vance is a straight up sociopath. He doesn't care about anything apart from himself.
ilikepizza2much | 11 hours ago
Well, he can be both.
chumpandchive | 19 hours ago
oh the cushion coochies are out in full force today, sucking sofa dick for zero benefit to their personal lives
British_Rover | 18 hours ago
Vance cares about himself and getting as much power as possible just like Trump. You don't go from calling someone cultural heroin, which is a legit devestating insult, to licking their boots enough to that they offer you the VP position if you actually care about your country.
Everyone with a brain new what a second Trump term would mean, and as odious as Mr. Bowman is he's not dumb, but suckling up to Trump's infected teats was the fastest way for Vance to advace his career. Think about how young this guy is. He didn't even finish his first term as a senator. He could have rode out the 2024 election as a Trump skeptic. He wasn't up for reelection till 2028 so Trump couldn't try to primary him and he could have thrown his hat into the 2028 presidential race at the end of his term.
If this is something you actually believe and not just a hot take you need to seriously reconsider your thought processes. Its so incredibly wrong that I am struggling to come up with a comparison.
PunkPirate56364 | 10 hours ago
I actually do believe Vance wants what's best for his country. What he believes is best for the country.
I don't think he is a smart guy though.
>He could have rode out the 2024 election as a Trump skeptic. He wasn't up for reelection till 2028 so Trump couldn't try to primary him and he could have thrown his hat into the 2028 presidential race at the end of his term.
That would be smart. Also losing some weight and working on appearance, impression would be smart.
Spinoza42 | 20 hours ago
Eh, I think that's a good cop bad cop situation. Vance is playing the reasonable savior as long as the boss is still alive.
vovap_vovap | 16 hours ago
Who cares what he is behind closed doors.
chumpandchive | 19 hours ago
lowering the rate isnt for us, silly, it is for their loans they take with collateral that is non existant unless they sell it, which they wouldnt do, bc they can just borrow against it for infinity.
Digitalispurpurea2 | 15 hours ago
It’s also because our national debt is so high and a large amount of bonds are scheduled to roll over in the next 1-2 years. This will be at higher rates, and thus more expensive, if they can’t convince the Fed to lower interest rates.
KAM7 | 18 hours ago
And the dumbest tariffs in the history of dumb tariffs.
da_mess | 18 hours ago
Don't forget his admin spent $5 trillion in deficit spending over past two years.
No rate cuts JD until you finish your fiscal conservatism.
Different_Height_157 | 19 hours ago
Or tariffs
hinterstoisser | 17 hours ago
Wars and tariffs
ModerateDataDude | 14 hours ago
If I recall correctly, running large deficits, particularly after accumulating a total debt load substantially greater than GDP, tends to put upward pressure on interest rate on the long end of the curve.
IamInternationalBig | 21 hours ago
>Vance added, “We’re doing a lot of things to try to keep those interest rates down"
This is a lie.
The Trump administration has done everything in their power to spur inflation. Stupid tariffs, starting a war with Iran, harsh immigration policy. Trump and JD Vance has done absolutely nothing to reduce pricing pressure that would allow for interest rates to be lowered.
JD Vance is a liar. He's also stupid and weak. But also a liar.
Facktat | 20 hours ago
I mean, they want inflation and low interest rates because this combination makes the GDP skyrocket on paper.
Econmajorhere | 20 hours ago
Devaluing of currency is easy to blame on external factors and these guys love pointing at the stock market like every American will see equal benefits from it. So the paper gains argument is there.
But on a larger scheme, this is exactly what they mean when they say “the country will grow out of debt.” It doesn’t magically result in paying off debt, it’s literally issuing short term bonds and higher and higher rates to buy back longterm.
Inflation doesn’t impact their donors - they either pass the increased costs to their customers, or for wealthy individuals they see higher gains on assets that typically negate the inflation.
This is essentially a shadow tax on Americans and most are too dumb to understand it.
Emotional_Goal9525 | 19 hours ago
Maybe in nominal terms, but tank in real terms.
Facktat | 19 hours ago
That‘s why I say on paper.
MisinformedGenius | 12 hours ago
But GDP growth is never reported in nominal terms, only in real terms. Nominal GDP growth wouldn't even be noticed. If you want to come up with an ulterior motive, high inflation and low interest rates will reduce the debt/GDP ratio.
Spinoza42 | 20 hours ago
Also makes moving to Trump coins only more fun.
filmquotedude | 15 hours ago
In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the… Anyone? Anyone?… the Great Depression, passed the… Anyone? Anyone? The tariff bill? The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act? Which, anyone? Raised or lowered?… raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. Did it work? Anyone? Anyone know the effects? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.
nelly2929 | 14 hours ago
How dare you bring economic principles and math into a discussion that should only rely on thoughts and prayers!
GhostofBeowulf | 20 hours ago
Interest, not inflation. Lowering interest rates would also raise inflation.
IamInternationalBig | 20 hours ago
Corrected, thank you.
emp-sup-bry | 16 hours ago
He’s a liar and as squirmy and weak as they come, but he’s very much NOT stupid.
He has dragged his own wife and kids to appease the worst people on earth, but he’s got a very quick mind. He’s also a bit of a survivor and they have less morals, typically. It’s a dangerous pairing and it’s to our own detriment to quickly dismiss him. He has very little charisma, but we are talking about voters that have been almost completely drained of rational thought at this point as they are almost literally hooked up to machines to propagandize.
https://newrepublic.com/post/185988/jd-vance-family-donald-trump-laura-loomer
Amazing_Entrance_888 | 15 hours ago
Trump himself says he does not care about about these issues
majesticstraits | 20 hours ago
In his defense, the administration thinks those things will bring interest rates down. They’re incredibly stupid and wrong, but they do think that
Spinoza42 | 20 hours ago
No they don't. Destroying the USD is one of their top priorities.
CarlosHDanger | 19 hours ago
They also think the Fed controls all the interest rates. The Fed just controls short term interest rates. Longer term rates, such as the 5 and 10 year rates which have more bearing on credit card and home loan interest rates, are controlled by the market.
TheProfessional9 | 17 hours ago
Yep. Their whole plan is to try to inflate away the debt
AngryRepublican | 16 hours ago
The only thing they are doing to lower rates is tell other people to do shit to lower the rates.
daniel940 | 14 hours ago
The "things" cited include:
Blaming Biden
Whining
Angry tweets
Trying to fire Fed governors on bullshit charges
303uru | 12 hours ago
He knows his audience, they are idiots.
Plopsevenplop | 21 hours ago
This is the same Vance that thinks the US dollar shouldn’t be the world reserve currency, mind you.
He wants cryptocurrency instead.
https://www.vcinfodocs.com/implications-of-cryptocurrency
igotanewaccount | 15 hours ago
Because Project 2025 wants this
PunkPirate56364 | 20 hours ago
Because Vance thinks strategically, strong manufactory is strategically important, and $ being reserve currency hurts US manufactury.
WISCOrear | 19 hours ago
“Because Vance thinks”
Lemme stop you right there
dfsw | 18 hours ago
What the fuck? How are you in an economics sub?
madison0593 | 16 hours ago
You know most people don’t like to out to the public how uneducated they are yet here you are volunteering that information.
ringobob | 16 hours ago
Probably Russian or Indian, "manufactory" is not a word anyone actually uses, it's not being used correctly here, and it's misspelled in one of the two places they used it.
AlmanorDiscard | 13 hours ago
> Probably Russian or Indian
Croatian, and they've got a really weird posting history (including some AI generated posts).
PunkPirate56364 | 10 hours ago
Bingo for Croatian.
Never wrote an AI generated post though.
PunkPirate56364 | 10 hours ago
Well then go ahead and guess my education.
If you get it right I will consider you to be a genious.
If you guess it wrong, I will consider you to be just another dumbass.
EnamelKant | 17 hours ago
Yeah Vance is a real modern day von Clausewitz. Can't wait to read his (picture) book.
BuzzNitro | 14 hours ago
There really are actual adults out there that believe stuff like this, incredible.
PunkPirate56364 | 10 hours ago
I'm reading these comments and I'm under the impression that even if you guys are adults, most of you doesn't know shit about economy.
Also I guess these adults may be in early 20's.
I'm 42.
Gotta_Gett | 14 hours ago
Why would it hurt US producers if everyone has US dollars to buy US goods?
PunkPirate56364 | 10 hours ago
Because high demand for US$ makes $ strong.
So US products are expensive, and US industry isn't competetive on global markets.
Isn't competetive on domestic markets either because importing stuff is cheap.
D-MAN-FLORIDA | 20 hours ago
Trying to lay the blame on the Fed instead of the administration, that he is a part of, for the reason why inflation and the bond markets being high. It wouldn’t be like that if you guys were consistent and not decided policy by the mood you are having that day.
ringobob | 16 hours ago
It's half the inconsistency, and half just terrible decisions
BadAtExisting | 21 hours ago
When did he get so chatty? Seems like you haven’t heard much about him for months and suddenly this week the twerp won’t shut up. I like him better when he’s silent and I forget he exists
kthejoker | 20 hours ago
Never too early to start the 2028 "I never liked Trump" memory hole
D-MAN-FLORIDA | 20 hours ago
“But then why did you accept his offer of VP? And why didn’t you resign?”
“…Transgender bicycles…”
GrandMoff_Harry | 15 hours ago
I am going to scream when my friends and family start saying they never liked him after silently going along with everything.
maltNeutrino | 21 hours ago
Maybe he thinks Trump is on his eighth death bed.
SpecificOk1146 | 21 hours ago
Daddy stopped making his mascara run.
BlueFalcon89 | 17 hours ago
Trumps about to die and we need to remember who new potus is
Remote-Letterhead844 | 17 hours ago
Will he be taking a 4th name upon his inauguration?
I'm not sure JD remembers who JD is.......lol
Meat-Dimension | 16 hours ago
It’s because he’s out stumping for GOP candidates in the midterms right now. So he’s in public way more than usual
BadAtExisting | 15 hours ago
That’s unfortunate
Dont-be-a-smurf | 15 hours ago
The very specific answer is they have no White House Press Sec at the moment, so he’s taking lectern duty in front of the press.
BadAtExisting | 14 hours ago
Oh right. I forgot about that
TonyDanza888 | 16 hours ago
He takes a lot of vacations
Cant_run_away | 16 hours ago
There's whispers of Trump's descending health
Big_Test_Icicle | 14 hours ago
More than likely they are positioning him to take over in 2027 after the midterms. Everything is indicating they are expecting the house to switch to a democrat majority and there is a real risk that the senate also become a dem majority. I suspect if that happens w/e republicans that are not MAGA will side with democrats to impeach. Personally, I don’t want the Dems to impeach rather keep Trump on a tight leash and prevent Vance from getting what he wants
TheUnderCrab | 13 hours ago
Midterms. They’re going to use him for campaign events and have to remind people why they should care about a couch fucker.
ConfusionFlat691 | 17 hours ago
JD, You had complete control of both the House and Senate, which you used to pass a budget reconciliation package that actually increased the debt, putting further pressure on interest rates. If you and the President were serious (which you’re not), you would have taken advantage of this rare opportunity to put the United States on a more responsible fiscal path.
ironteddybear | 20 hours ago
Thank god the FOMC is still mostly independent. Even Warsh seems hawkish.
This is why central bank independence matters so much.
Inflation would be double digits if Trump was setting interest rates.
PurpleReign123 | 19 hours ago
Warsh is playing pretend hawkish! He’s beholden to Trump, and will not vote to increase rates.
Instead, he’s trying to persuade his colleagues at the Fed to accept his Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate as the rate which FOMC is supposed to focus on, and this is the rate that will low-ball the inflation numbers closer to 2%.
Just watch him. Warsh is no hawk when it comes to action (ie voting). When it comes to talking, he wants to be perceived as a hawk, but watch his actions, and not his words
AgencyNice4679 | 16 hours ago
Since he became the chairman, he is not beholden to anyone: Trump can’t remove him
I do have my reservations, but let’s see the next meeting results
PurpleReign123 | 15 hours ago
For the sake of the country, and the world, I hope you’re right. But I have strong reservations about this, when you consider the linkages between Warsh and Trump:
Marsh is married to Jane Lauder (Estée Lauder heiress). Her father Ronald Lauder has been Trump's friend since the 1960s
Ronald Lauder donated $5 million to Trump's PAC in March 2025 and is a close informal advisor
This multi-decade personal & financial relationship creates perceived and actual alignment between Warsh's family and Trump
Warsh is / was also a partner at Duquesne Family Office with Stanley Druckenmiller, who also helped get Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) into the administration — creating a tight-knit group with shared allegiances. Though Druckenmiller has recently criticised Bessent for trying to implement Operation Twist to rein in long term bond yields, there’s no denying that Bessent and Warsh are unlikely to contradict each other when it comes to interest rate alignment. And Bessent wants lower rates, irrespective of inflation, because that what’s Trump wants
mrpickles | 14 hours ago
Well I expected him to cut rates first meeting.
Willing_Activity_855 | 13 hours ago
warsh has de facto raised rates. By removing forward guidance the market has responded. He's hoping that will be enough to put pressure on inflation, it wont.
VoidMageZero | 11 hours ago
Warsh is definitely a hawk, he was talking about raising interest rates to fight inflation during the Great Recession when inflation was already negative.
tourdeforcemajeure | 18 hours ago
Oh boy no. They shoulda raised rates already
MisinformedGenius | 12 hours ago
Of course, Bessent and Warsh are discussing rewriting the Treasury Fed accord, which would deeply change the independence of the central bank.
zenmaster_B | 16 hours ago
There’s a lot of stuff you could do, JD, but your Trump administration just won’t do it, if fact, he doesn’t even care and even says as much
Youngpaniniz | 20 hours ago
So awesome that our VP has no fucking clue how the fed works
Words words words more words additional words and words words words words that word heavy
_pul | 15 hours ago
They know how the fed works. But they also know their base has no clue, so they can blame the fed anyway.
Xyrus2000 | 17 hours ago
Well Vance, if this administration weren't a bunch f*cking clowns and imbeciles, the Fed wouldn't be in the position where they really can't lower rates without spiking inflation.
NoPain4551 | 17 hours ago
Lol. Help? Maybe don’t fuck everything up and you won’t need help right? Or how about you pull yourself up by your bootstraps couchboy. I bet guillotines would help at this point in time
mrpickles | 14 hours ago
>The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $40 trillion as of August 2026, growing from roughly $36.2 trillion in January 2025.
Or you could stop spending money like a drunken sailor?
Resident_Window_9369 | 20 hours ago
Is Vance and Trump stupid? The economy is hot and running hot. Things are expensive and people are still spending like crazy. The economy has been running hot for five years now. If you reduce rates, it’ll run even hotter. Things will get even more expensive because they’ll be more demand since people will be able to borrow money cheaper. You reduce rates to stimulate the economy to get it to an environment that we’re currently living in.
morty_morty | 17 hours ago
Trump is stupid. Vance is not stupid, but is evil and calculated and works for Thiel. Which is worse.
755goodmorning | 11 hours ago
Vance is actually quite ignorant. I made a comment above - from personal interactions I can tell you that he’s just not that bright but very eager to please.
13mm6pt_deep38 | 17 hours ago
I agree but the interest payment on national debt is becoming a problem. This administration would lower rates it goes with their goal to lower rates, weaken the dollar, and pump assets ie business, stocks, crypto, and housing. For national debt the interest rates on national debt would reduce and inflation would sky rocket essentially inflating the debt away and then the national debt problem is solved in a decade or two the US already dod this after world war 2.
Synchwave1 | 19 hours ago
I’m sure it would be fantastic to have some help, but in an economic environment where inflation is running higher thanks to his imbecile handler, the Fed can’t really do anything other than fight it.
It has 2 mandates… Maximum employment and price stability.
They can’t help you fix a problem you’ve created.
crustang | 18 hours ago
If only the government had the power to manage the federal budget then the government wouldn’t need the Fed’s help. Oh well. Big miss by the founders I guess.
VeganDogPro | 17 hours ago
Do any of this people understand ANYTHING about the economy? They handcuff the Fed then ask them to fix what they are actively tearing down. I don’t have a degree but I do understand the basics. They just don’t seem to apply any amount of critical thinking to these issues.
Raven_Photography | 16 hours ago
Yeah, let’s lower interest rates so inflation can climb even higher, that is a brilliant idea! It’s almost like he doesn’t understand how an economy works.
TrickAssumption4177 | 14 hours ago
Simple. They are shifting blame. Most people don't really understand economics or the the reason there is independence between the government and the Fed. So by putting out bogus rhetoric they hope to further trick the people into believing that this isn't their doing but instead it is the Fed's fault.
I_Am_Robotic | 17 hours ago
Hmm.. what is most inflationary thing the US government could do (checks notes).. ah! Start a war in middle east that drives up oil prices for the whole world.
MarcooseOnTheLoose | 16 hours ago
And indiscriminately enact tariffs on pretty much everything imported.
Separate_Football914 | 15 hours ago
Buying it own bonds, thus creating money out of thin air?
Entire_Toe2640 | 19 hours ago
And this is exactly why the Fed must be independent from politicians. They would make decisions based on their personal need rather than appropriate factors.
bumpachedda | 15 hours ago
Now they are asking the followers to choose between economics 101 and them. Always a fun game to ask: is it shameless gaslighting or do they not even have two real honest advisors to rub against each other.
karl4319 | 15 hours ago
Ah, the panicking is showing. A higher interest rate bump will slow the flow of money towards the bubble. If the bubble stops growing exponentially, then it will pop. Can't have that before the midterms. Otherwise, mlre progressives will get elected and there will be no bailout money for papa Thiel
ArkhamKnight_1 | 15 hours ago
And make their inflation more rampant???
No thanks!
Why do we allow these morons to ruin what is left of America!?!
It is beyond insanity.
Can we get back to reality, with the big boys at the table ??
AdZealousideal5383 | 15 hours ago
Help with what, exactly? Bessent is now trying to lower rates by buying bonds, effectively fighting against the Fed’s attempt to lower inflation. He’s trying to circumvent the Fed, but the Fed still exists and still has its mandate so it may end up raising rates just to stop Bessent from causing more inflation.
u2shnn | 15 hours ago
'....Would be nice to have some help'?
Really -help?
According to your daddy, the economy is doing great!
NO! Just no, jd. You and your party are NOT going to get a political 'reset'.
Single-Refuse174 | 13 hours ago
They want everyone else to be so nice to them and give them everything while they go ahead and break things. I mean, don’t you get it, they have to troll canada to ignite their base, why is Canada upset? Just be nice to us and it’ll pass. Don’t you get it? We have to threaten to invade Greenland to energize our voters. They like the energy, we’re not serious, can we send some troops there just to pretend? We will buy it from you if you let us actually. Oh what the fuck why are you mad?? How dare you be angry at US, we subsidize your defense spending so you can spend it on healthcare! We own you!!! Wait whh are you actually posturing against us? No wait take us seriously.
PromotionOk2443 | 12 hours ago
"I'm trying to rape and pillage this country, can you please join me? there's still a small chance it recovers and I need you to make sure it's dead
thebeardofawesomenes | 17 hours ago
These people are idiots. Basic supply and demand. right? If you lower interest rates, then you increase the supply of money… which is where we see inflation, no?
Increase rates and you reduce the supply of money to hopefully slow down the inflation. I for one would put money into CDs (reducing the supply of money) if rates go higher. Think back to the early 80s.
Problem is, all these rich fcks want free money. They borrow to live while wrecking the working class.
Square-Chart6059 | 15 hours ago
Vance wants the Fed to cut rates to help lower mortgages. Would cutting the Fed funds rate even do that? Lower rates would signal to the markets higher inflation leading to higher longer term rates. Mortgages are tied to 10 year treasuries. Not short term rates. Those administration’s view on rates makes no sense
snasna102 | 20 hours ago
‘It would be nice if we had some help’
Funny, Canadians are thinking the same thing about their sovereignty that’s being threatened. We keep hearing Americans are against it… yet the threats and attacks keep coming.
Americans hate being reminded of the mess they’ve made, they’d rather be the victim of themselves than do anything remotely productive that may cause a temporary hardship.
ghostoftheradio | 16 hours ago
Reagan warned us about government saying they were here to help, and for once I’m inclined to agree. And that’s how bad it’s gotten, I’m agreeing with Reagan.
nav13eh | 19 hours ago
Bond marketa: not so fast buddy.
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.
Understruggle | 18 hours ago
Well this administration is definitely known for being truthful. Insofar as you take the exact opposite of whatever comes out of their mouth and you know that is what they are actually trying to accomplish.
glormosh | 16 hours ago
This is to pander to the lowest level of intelligence. It being made a scapegoat for their strategy of creating global chaos.
They have "changed the game" and now the world is unpredictable by nature. We have these contradicting situations now of increased cost of living which would lean to a rate decrease BUT now its not black and white with money production/ debt generation occuring.
We are in a very weird time right now where a rate increase or decrease are technically not the wrong option when variables are looked at independently.
A rate decrease with all variables considered would further destroy America and inflation would sky rocket...but this is why they're asking for it.
The call is coming from inside the house, the plan is to destroy the current America from within. Rate decreases with these psycho paths in charge would be one of the final nails.
boomares | 14 hours ago
He knows better than this. Lowering interest rates will raise spending, which causes more inflation. That will not help the average person.
It may be painful now but it's nothing compared to what they're asking for. I'd rather not see what happened to the Turkish currency.
The government held interest rates low and they got completly unmanageable inflation.
B1G_Fan | 13 hours ago
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong.
But, while lowering interest rates might make it easier to get a mortgage, wouldn’t making mortgages easier to get increase the demand and therefore the price of houses?
So, sure, the Fed lowering interest rates might lower the interest rate on a mortgage. But, the total principal on the mortgage might increase…
jeremiah181985 | 13 hours ago
Resign and submit to arrest, there you have Americans relief. So out of touch and I’ll add the mods here are too! Since apparently only a paragraph is approved on this shithole
Fuzzy-Byte | 13 hours ago
It’s almost as if the institutional investors saw this coming and decided to start dumping US Treasuries as America becomes more unreliable/unstable.
Wayelder | 12 hours ago
They think that rates are nothing more than the accelerator, like stepping on the gas will just automatically increase business activity.
They have no knowledge of economics. I wouldn’t trust these people to head a Starbucks let alone the nation.
755goodmorning | 11 hours ago
Comically enough, long term rates would likely go down if the Fed increased the overnight rate. He’s just too obtuse to understand this.
I met Vance about 10ish years ago (around the time that his book was taking off). He was working for a firm that I knew and we had mutual friends given that we were both vets. I was shocked at how fucking stupid he was. I felt bad bc the premise of his book was basically how people look down on him bc of his background - I am a southerner so I was eager to connect and relate w him. He was so ignorant and eager to show off his limited experience and shitty reasoning that it was frankly embarrassing.
Jumpy_Childhood7548 | 11 hours ago
Would be nice to stop unnecessary oil wars, billions in tariffs, trade wars, government spending resulting in a $40 trillion debt, tax cuts for the wealthy and major corporations, etc.
WellHung67 | 20 hours ago
The executive branch isn’t supposed to even meet with Fed officials informally, much less comment on interest rates like this. This is so fucking abnormal just a reminder. Fed should increase rates by even more just to fucking make this twerp and his dillhole boss get fucked
iceman333933 | 16 hours ago
Stop your unnecessary war that's costing billions? These people are genuinely idiots. I don't know if I hit my character limit to answer, but oh, there it goes. 140.
USA46Q | 21 hours ago
The Lord helps those that help themselves... and JD killed the Pope on Easter.
Pissing into the wind would be more helpful than asking other people for help at this point.
humanreporting4duty | 18 hours ago
Hmmmmm…. Try having a pair of balls and telling the banks that you don’t need them because Money originates from the Federal Government.
The federal government is the price setter. Act like it.
But nooooo. That ruins the facade of capitalism and free markets. Whomp whomp.
shortyman920 | 20 hours ago
Funny thing is they are helping them by not enabling the rapid inflation they’re trying so hard to get. That would destroy the stability and credibility of the dollar permanently
Z3r0sama2017 | 11 hours ago
Fed says Vance should increase tax rate : 'Would be nice to have some help'
It swings both ways and some extra words to deal with dunb automod word limit filter.
JoeBuskin | 11 hours ago
Unfortunately he wants "help" to destroy the economy and bankrupt the working man so he can come around, buy everything up and then rent it back to us later on
SecondPositive5513 | 11 hours ago
They pass trillions of dollars worth of tax cuts for the rich, they cut government programs that benefit the poor and working class, they cut environmental regulations, ICE is funded like our military, they cut foreign aid, they tariff other countries just because (except Russia and North Korea)…a Maga wishlist of policies and they need help from the Fed like it’s The Great Recession?