Microsoft is still going to win because they are the no risk option for many businesses but wow I might actually be embarrassed to be part of these efforts. I hate to use such hyperbolic language too but they have continued year over year for the past 3 years failed to deliver in AI. From the useless frameworks they have been building on the Azure side, the partnership with Anthropic where they are still building copilot to be uniquely their own (and confusing) and now this. It is extremely interesting to watch this unfold!
How's your IBM mainframe doing, these days? Wait, you use Watson, right?
IBM still exists. They're the perfect example of how far a corporate behemoth can keep rolling after it effectively dies.
Microsoft is effectively dead.
It's easier and less hassle to use Linux desktop environments than to wrestle with Windows bullshit. Their flagship product is a sad joke, their leadership is flailing for purpose, and their entire corporation is bloated and unable to focus on anything meaningful.
That doesn't mean they'll disappear tomorrow, or in 5 years, or even in 20. They've already lost whatever relevance they had, and will have to fight to get it back. There will be something called Microsoft still churning recognizably Microsoft slop, because they have a lot of money and resources with which to continue flailing.
It's the year of the Linux desktop, and Windows has fallen.
Tesla trades at a massive multiple, Microsoft doesn't. I think a lot of you just hate Microsoft and ignore (or rather prefer to pretend) the reality that the world runs on it.
Yes. They're not in any danger of disappearing. They just don't have any purpose anymore. They don't provide anything to the market that can't be gotten elsewhere, more cheaply, at higher quality, with better support, or with any other product advantage you might suggest.
The only advantage they have is inertia; software works on windows that doesn't work on other platforms. Those are a tiny, tiny percentage of cases. Microsoft brings nothing to the table; you're going to have an easier time, be more secure, spend less money, deal with less hassle, if you use Linux. Linux hassles me less over the course of a month than Windows does in a single day of use.
So yeah, Microsoft has a lot of wealth and resources. They don't have a point, anymore. There's no innovation, progress in development, novel or unique products, etc - they're effectively dead, as far as the market goes. They're going to have to undergo an epic struggle and battle for relevance, or within 20 years they're going to be a lot like IBM or Yahoo or even Bear Sterns.
They're the 4th largest company because they underwent an epic struggle and seized on a purpose and were driven to develop the best in class enterprise operating system and went tooth and nail against Apple for decades. Now they're a second rate mishmash of adtech surveillance grifting, meaningless, flailing product development, prancing around and cashing out the reputation that was built, and supremely vulnerable.
But yeah, they're big. I'm sure that will suffice to keep them alive for a long time. There just won't be a point - unless they get leadership that revitalizes the entire organization. I don't see that happening.
There is no other IAM/SIEM solution that I know of out there that makes it possible for a single guy to manage the companies' strict compliance requirements.
The complete integration just keeps getting more valuable and hard to replace every day.
Eh, I don't think they're quite dead yet. Microsoft isn't a direct parallel to IBM. IBM ignored the cloud early and fell behind because of it, they had to buy Red Hat to remain any kind of relevance at all.
Meanwhile, Azure is the #2 cloud and still growing pretty fast. They own nearly the entire dev tool ecosystem at most companies (Github, VSCode, NPM), and pretty much every single F500 company's IT runs on Microsoft tech, for better or for worse.
The mistake is thinking that Windows is still their flagship product. It's not, it's basically a side quest now.
But can really say any of their products are top of their respective niches? Windows, Xbox, Azure are not the gold standard. They had the lead or close to it in these niches but floundered that.
I never understand these takes like they did this much in revenue. OP acknowledges that, they have enterprise down and are too big to fail. What’s to say they couldn’t be doing more revenue? Or even better year over year if they played their cards right. Don’t get me started on GitHub and VSCode. Popular projects are leaving GitHub and VSCode wasn’t able to monetize itself where many forks were able to do so.
If Windows isn't the gold standard having 70% of the market, then what is? Azure is in second place not by far after AWS. And these are huge, HUGE markets. I wouldn't say your local grocer is dead because it's not Costco, and of course by this logic Costco is itself dead because it's not Walmart.
Maybe we are jumping the gun on Windows. My echo chamber is tech people and they seemed to have lost faith in windows after they Windows 11 introduced ads and plugged every hole that allowed to bypass needing a Microsoft account. Gaming and anti-cheat not working on Linux will keep that market share high for a while.
It's dead for you and me since we won't willfully use any of the slop products they put out, but as long as they produce the default OS for most of the PCs that the average Joe buys, they aren't going anywhere. I'm not entirely sure how this works, but I don't think there are many Linux distros/organizations that will pay for manufacturers to install Linux on the PCs.
The there is also the cloud like other comments already mentioned.
Are you high on your own supply, or did you genuinely hallucinate a reality where a $3 trillion company is dying because a handful of Redditors learned how to use Proton?
- c# is a great language that is looked down on by people who haven't used it.
- typescript is also amazing and has helped massively in web front end development and backend.
- .net is cross platform especially in the backend world.
- windows backwards compatibility and hardware support is way better than the alternatives.
- yeah windows 11 is full of so much adware crap it's a shame but i recently switchedy home desktop back to it after giving up trouble shooting a network card driver issue on Linux. The same issue I've encountered multiple times over 22 years running on different hardware.
- and all my gog games just work on windows :)
- yes I know proton, it's amazing, I have a steam deck, but not everything works easily or at all.
> It's easier and less hassle to use Linux desktop environments than to wrestle with Windows bullshit.
Almost every corporate IT deployment disagrees with you. Linux is free, if companies could switch to it with no negative consequences they would. And yet they don't.
Huh? That’s what I said. They are going to win but wow the AI product team lacks a lot of imagination. I feel like an arm chair jerk saying it but they have had years to copy others and still don’t. They have the data agreements with business but lack product vision.
At $37B they also have the highest publicly disclosed AI ARR in the industry, so the article above is probably not too wrong. Sure it can all go sour in the future, but so far they seem to be doing better than most in the industry.
MSFT has never done too well on the vibes meter, but also it seems vibes don't matter as much in enterprise.
This is likely more to do with data security than feature set.
M365 Copilot is the only provider that offers some level of confidence that data will stay within tenancy bounds.
For a lot of businesses outside of the US, using other cloud models is considered a serious data risk.
Right but that’s my point of them winning. They power the world’s businesses which have data agreements in place already and they have restructured renewals now to throw in copilot. People are not using it because it’s great but it’s all that’s available for a large number of orgs.
Mark Zuckerberg has thrown how much into AI and Microsoft is passing them by as if they don't even exist. You know that meme about how IE is the browser eating paste, while Firefox and Chrome fight it out... Meta AI is the "kid" eating paste, while Google, Anthropic, OpenAI and Microsoft duke it out.
Even if it were somehow a flop, whats Mark Zuckerberg offering? My key point still stands. Mark Zuckerberg is asleep at the wheel burning billions with zero to show for it.
"Get the confidence to move from agentic AI experimentation to enterprise-scale operations by giving your IT and security teams a control plane to observe, govern, and secure every agent across your organization."
I'm sorry, did OpenClaw improve by orders of magnitude in the last couple of months? Maybe so because it was an absolute dumpster fire when I looked at it, you could taste the "vibe" it was so poorly put together, I can't imagine anyone respectable building on top of it, better to just steal the compelling ideas (agent with a cron wrapper)
It is the least reliable piece of software I have ever used. While I was still using it I got into states that were completely broken and the easiest way to get out was to wait for the next version and hope that did something.
Neat! I have plenty of time to read these Microsoft announcements today because Microsoft 365 exchange online is borked and my emails aren’t going out and teams in browser is jank-city.
What did i just read? Microsoft putting their name in total vibe coded slop that breaks every release and super bloated? And coding it is not even that hard
> Microsoft putting their name in total vibe coded slop that breaks every release and super bloated?
They never seem to have any problem with this if you take out the words "vibe coded", so it's not that crazy to me that adding it doesn't make a difference
What would be another example of Microsoft forking an OS program and slapping their name on it?
As far as I know MSFT started open sourcing some of their own tech just shy of a decade ago, but white labelling OS tech I haven't seen much, maybe WSL?
> What would be another example of Microsoft forking an OS program and slapping their name on it?
I'm not sure, but it's not what I said, so I'm not sure why you're asking me. What I said is that if you take out "vibe coded" from "Microsoft putting their name in total vibe coded slop that breaks every release and super bloated", you get something that they already do. I don't see anything about OS programs in that.
Tax the tokens, I actually like that idea. It'd be like a gasoline tax -- drivers pay for infrastructure maintenance. In this case, token consumers would pay for the increased burden on the grid.
Wow, listening to the article [a], with the flat, tinny AI voice - it's hard to shake the feeling that this is satire.
And in the YouTube video, I think I glimpse the AI delegating and assigning work to the user (hey, you should review this file/presentation) - via Teams or some other chat interface that probably grabs your attention with an obnoxious ping!
Ironically, the vision they seem to be peddling looks quite close to what NocoBase[n] is selling.
Key difference being that NocoBase at least try to increase human agency.
They both suffer a bit from 4gl flaws; how do you version your code, how do you move it to another system, eg when changing employer.
Like, how do bring your customized Chad - senior assistant - with you to Google workspace or fastmail?
For NocoBase AFAIK they have modules, but no real versioning - so I don't see how it is a good fit for developers.
I just recently came across it as I was looking for a ticketing system - and no, I don't want to build my own in a 4gl system if I can help it. But holy shit would I be more inclined to let our org users play with NocoBase rather than set things on fire with chaos agents running on top of OpenClaw!
PS: We looked at libreDesk (too simple, missing things like merging issues) - looks like we'll go for FreeScout.
I'm kind of sad that Trac/Apache bloodhound died (and I think died, not just became feature complete) - they worked pretty well for email first support tickets.
This reminds me of when Microsoft announced Bing Chat (which became Copilot) as a thin wrapper around ChatGPT. It turned out their value added wasn't integration, but tanking the quality and usefulness of it.
infecto | 21 days ago
observationist | 21 days ago
IBM still exists. They're the perfect example of how far a corporate behemoth can keep rolling after it effectively dies.
Microsoft is effectively dead.
It's easier and less hassle to use Linux desktop environments than to wrestle with Windows bullshit. Their flagship product is a sad joke, their leadership is flailing for purpose, and their entire corporation is bloated and unable to focus on anything meaningful.
That doesn't mean they'll disappear tomorrow, or in 5 years, or even in 20. They've already lost whatever relevance they had, and will have to fight to get it back. There will be something called Microsoft still churning recognizably Microsoft slop, because they have a lot of money and resources with which to continue flailing.
It's the year of the Linux desktop, and Windows has fallen.
andsoitis | 21 days ago
Microsoft is the 4th largest company by market cap.
economistbob | 21 days ago
vitally3643 | 21 days ago
partiallypro | 21 days ago
observationist | 21 days ago
The only advantage they have is inertia; software works on windows that doesn't work on other platforms. Those are a tiny, tiny percentage of cases. Microsoft brings nothing to the table; you're going to have an easier time, be more secure, spend less money, deal with less hassle, if you use Linux. Linux hassles me less over the course of a month than Windows does in a single day of use.
So yeah, Microsoft has a lot of wealth and resources. They don't have a point, anymore. There's no innovation, progress in development, novel or unique products, etc - they're effectively dead, as far as the market goes. They're going to have to undergo an epic struggle and battle for relevance, or within 20 years they're going to be a lot like IBM or Yahoo or even Bear Sterns.
They're the 4th largest company because they underwent an epic struggle and seized on a purpose and were driven to develop the best in class enterprise operating system and went tooth and nail against Apple for decades. Now they're a second rate mishmash of adtech surveillance grifting, meaningless, flailing product development, prancing around and cashing out the reputation that was built, and supremely vulnerable.
But yeah, they're big. I'm sure that will suffice to keep them alive for a long time. There just won't be a point - unless they get leadership that revitalizes the entire organization. I don't see that happening.
jongjong | 21 days ago
The main purpose of the software is as a narrative device for making sales.
aniceperson | 21 days ago
grim_io | 21 days ago
There is no other IAM/SIEM solution that I know of out there that makes it possible for a single guy to manage the companies' strict compliance requirements.
The complete integration just keeps getting more valuable and hard to replace every day.
thewebguyd | 21 days ago
Meanwhile, Azure is the #2 cloud and still growing pretty fast. They own nearly the entire dev tool ecosystem at most companies (Github, VSCode, NPM), and pretty much every single F500 company's IT runs on Microsoft tech, for better or for worse.
The mistake is thinking that Windows is still their flagship product. It's not, it's basically a side quest now.
john_strinlai | 21 days ago
wish i ran a dead company that did 67 billion in revenue last year, with year-over-year increases.
>Microsoft is effectively dead.
damn, and this dead company did 280 billion in revenue last year.
(you have a ~unique~ definition of dead.)
theturtletalks | 21 days ago
I never understand these takes like they did this much in revenue. OP acknowledges that, they have enterprise down and are too big to fail. What’s to say they couldn’t be doing more revenue? Or even better year over year if they played their cards right. Don’t get me started on GitHub and VSCode. Popular projects are leaving GitHub and VSCode wasn’t able to monetize itself where many forks were able to do so.
wan23 | 21 days ago
theturtletalks | 21 days ago
dafelst | 21 days ago
altmanaltman | 21 days ago
justinclift | 21 days ago
Didn't IBM used to be north of US$100B/yr?
Xfx7028 | 21 days ago
The there is also the cloud like other comments already mentioned.
pjmlp | 21 days ago
GCC, OpenJ9, Wayland, GNOME, systemd,...
Valve has to translate Windows games to have any content worth playing on Steam Deck.
Everyone and their dog use VSCode, npm, Typescript, Github, LinkedIn,...
gigel82 | 21 days ago
pipes | 21 days ago
- c# is a great language that is looked down on by people who haven't used it.
- typescript is also amazing and has helped massively in web front end development and backend.
- .net is cross platform especially in the backend world.
- windows backwards compatibility and hardware support is way better than the alternatives.
- yeah windows 11 is full of so much adware crap it's a shame but i recently switchedy home desktop back to it after giving up trouble shooting a network card driver issue on Linux. The same issue I've encountered multiple times over 22 years running on different hardware.
- and all my gog games just work on windows :)
- yes I know proton, it's amazing, I have a steam deck, but not everything works easily or at all.
conception | 21 days ago
afavour | 21 days ago
Almost every corporate IT deployment disagrees with you. Linux is free, if companies could switch to it with no negative consequences they would. And yet they don't.
joemazerino | 21 days ago
throawayonthe | 21 days ago
infecto | 21 days ago
gchamonlive | 21 days ago
keeda | 21 days ago
The vibes may not be with them but enterprise adoption seems to be:
https://www.a16z.news/p/leaders-gainers-and-unexpected-winne...
At $37B they also have the highest publicly disclosed AI ARR in the industry, so the article above is probably not too wrong. Sure it can all go sour in the future, but so far they seem to be doing better than most in the industry.
MSFT has never done too well on the vibes meter, but also it seems vibes don't matter as much in enterprise.
soundworlds | 21 days ago
For a lot of businesses outside of the US, using other cloud models is considered a serious data risk.
infecto | 21 days ago
vdfs | 21 days ago
reaperducer | 21 days ago
baq | 21 days ago
tartoran | 21 days ago
JohnTHaller | 21 days ago
hurfdurf | 21 days ago
verdverm | 21 days ago
wiether | 21 days ago
layer8 | 21 days ago
giancarlostoro | 21 days ago
Edit for those curious:
https://devhumor.com/content/uploads/images/August2016/Chrom...
eckelhesten | 21 days ago
Octoth0rpe | 21 days ago
_Which_ copilot? Lots of big businesses are buying github copilot for their devs, I wouldn't call it a flop by any stretch.
giancarlostoro | 21 days ago
cheschire | 21 days ago
I doubt you’ll feel so strongly in a month or two.
giancarlostoro | 21 days ago
moolcool | 21 days ago
homarp | 21 days ago
so I guess, one more tool does not really matter
tartoran | 21 days ago
Microsoft is about to introduce a worse and less secure version of OpenClaw to their Enterprise customers. What could go wrong??
wiether | 21 days ago
spogbiper | 21 days ago
"Get the confidence to move from agentic AI experimentation to enterprise-scale operations by giving your IT and security teams a control plane to observe, govern, and secure every agent across your organization."
wiether | 21 days ago
A bit disappointed by the name
spogbiper | 20 days ago
emsign | 21 days ago
PUSH_AX | 21 days ago
robryan | 21 days ago
yashau | 21 days ago
650REDHAIR | 21 days ago
moshun | 21 days ago
fuzzfactor | 21 days ago
>managed with the same rigor you expect from any first-party Microsoft service.
pulkittt | 21 days ago
saghm | 21 days ago
They never seem to have any problem with this if you take out the words "vibe coded", so it's not that crazy to me that adding it doesn't make a difference
TZubiri | 21 days ago
As far as I know MSFT started open sourcing some of their own tech just shy of a decade ago, but white labelling OS tech I haven't seen much, maybe WSL?
saghm | 21 days ago
I'm not sure, but it's not what I said, so I'm not sure why you're asking me. What I said is that if you take out "vibe coded" from "Microsoft putting their name in total vibe coded slop that breaks every release and super bloated", you get something that they already do. I don't see anything about OS programs in that.
lgsymons | 21 days ago
aniceperson | 21 days ago
TZubiri | 21 days ago
Meta ruining it's pristine cybersecurity reputation, and Nadella throwing this buffoonery on the same week.
When the AI market crashes, it will be the first market crisis where employees will be hired en masse rather than fired.
ruduhudi | 21 days ago
torben-friis | 21 days ago
There's a running joke that you don't pay some mariachis for singing, you tip them to get them to go away.
In a similar vein, Maybe Microsoft can figure out how to monetize not having to use Windows as a service.
"You don't have to use teams and outlook any longer" is certainly a nice pitch.
luplex | 21 days ago
chips_not_fries | 21 days ago
TAX THE TOKENS
100%
Don't let these companies take from our societies without giving back
politicians: if you aren't taxing the tokens you ain't getting my vote
pton_xd | 21 days ago
onesociety2022 | 21 days ago
SeriousM | 21 days ago
mNovak | 21 days ago
layer8 | 21 days ago
e12e | 21 days ago
And in the YouTube video, I think I glimpse the AI delegating and assigning work to the user (hey, you should review this file/presentation) - via Teams or some other chat interface that probably grabs your attention with an obnoxious ping!
Ironically, the vision they seem to be peddling looks quite close to what NocoBase[n] is selling.
Key difference being that NocoBase at least try to increase human agency.
They both suffer a bit from 4gl flaws; how do you version your code, how do you move it to another system, eg when changing employer.
Like, how do bring your customized Chad - senior assistant - with you to Google workspace or fastmail?
For NocoBase AFAIK they have modules, but no real versioning - so I don't see how it is a good fit for developers.
I just recently came across it as I was looking for a ticketing system - and no, I don't want to build my own in a 4gl system if I can help it. But holy shit would I be more inclined to let our org users play with NocoBase rather than set things on fire with chaos agents running on top of OpenClaw!
PS: We looked at libreDesk (too simple, missing things like merging issues) - looks like we'll go for FreeScout.
I'm kind of sad that Trac/Apache bloodhound died (and I think died, not just became feature complete) - they worked pretty well for email first support tickets.
[a] https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/blog/2026/06/0...
[n] https://www.nocobase.com/
jdlyga | 21 days ago
outofpaper | 21 days ago
h4kunamata | 21 days ago
They didn't learn with CoPilot having no adoption.
They didn't learn with Windows 11 being completely useless
They didn't learn with GitHub having security breach left and right
Some companies never learn I guess.
nigelglenday | 20 days ago