Don’t worry. Supply and demand doesn’t matter anymore. We live in a circus.
All Trump needs to do is have Barak Ravid write another Axios article that they are TALKING TO QATAR about setting up a meeting with Iran, to have a CONCEPT of a peace deal. Boom oil down to $50
I think we are just seeing the outcome of inequality at large.
Most developing economies are grossly unequal with the majority being oligarchies or authoritarian regimes. The developed world isn't faring much better with cartel activity, and wealth inequality reaching all time highs resulting on de facto oligarchies.
Capital is now stagnant and increasingly centralized meaning the entire world is now being manipulated by competing billionaires and we are all just along for the ride. So much for free markets and democracy. We've gone right back to the era of mercantilism, and protectionism.
It's hard to take a pure numbers view on this as any economists might be inclined to do simply because we are seeing market manipulation and collusion in the US on a scale not see in modern times. An absurd level of corruption has become normalized and the boundary between public-private is becoming increasingly blurry. If it is this bad in the US then Russia, China, India, etc are either the same or worse.
I mean, is anyone even still using the GATT anymore? Not really, bilateral FTA's and BIT's have been the norm for decades at this point. I'm not sure how to describe the present situation as anything other than a return to mercantilism, and the kind of politics that comes with it.
you can have capitalism, or you can have free markets and democracy, but you can't have both. markets and democracy are by definition characterized by the distribution of power, and the goal of capitalism and the thing that makes it work is the concentration of power.
I had the idea even like 15 years ago that our current global economic and financial system is broken and if allowed to persist inevitably results in a world where a very few corporations and their owner families have purchased the "rights" to everything that matters.
I believe that competition and collaboration are both good and that people should have the freedom and capacity to run and manage their own production, but our modern unregulated mess of a system takes the idea of fair competition and commensurate rewards and shoots them both in the back.
To make an allegory it's not so much Trump suspending a red card with a call to the head of FIFA, rather it's like Trump and US billionaires successfully lobbying FIFA to seed team USA directly to the finals, where they start the match with a lead 100-0 and can't be called for fouls. And as long as FIFA gets its money, that's every World Cup.
BRICS countries are the same or worse? Did you just use the logic that bc America is going downhill, then all of these other countries must be even worse, bc logically America is better than all of these other countries all of the time? What trash.
No, you're 100% right and I did mention this point in my comment but to be perfectly clear - the West is not the worst.
There is an overwhelming anti-Western bias in any, and all international contexts so it is important to emphasize that as bad as the West may be, the Global East and South is far worse in almost all metrics.
Iran knows that the SOR is running dangerous low and the US and China can't keep up the artificially low price for far longer and may try to see how far they can take this.
That’s exactly what they’re gonna do. I feel like this is the elephant in the room right now. Anybody who thinks this conflict will be resolved in a matter of months is delusional. This will easily carry into 2027, barrels are going to climb well above $100, and consumer gas price is gonna be above $6 a gallon. On top of that Republicans are going to subvert democracy and rig the midterms. The French had some ideas about how to correct this oligarchy.
After a 20 year career in the military I feel confident saying that the Iran War is the next big American military campaign.
This isn’t going to be over in 2027. We’ll be lucky if it’s done in 2037. But the overwhelming likelihood, in my opinion, is that this will carry us to 2050.
The Defense Industrial Base aka the Military Industrial Complex, is running the show and has been for decades. Until killing people becomes unprofitable this is our next forever war.
Maybe. If Democrats take both chambers, I think they gut funding for this thing. Even if that doesn't happen, I'm unconvinced that the next administration continues the war. It is massively unpopular and if it expands to a ground war, it will be even more unpopular. I think the next administration will be pressured to put an end to it.
Even if they just take the house they have to defund it. Or at least put reasonable demands on the funds that Trump can’t meet. Fire the man responsible etc
> After a 20 year career in the military I feel confident saying that the Iran War is the next big American military campaign.
At the risk of straying far from economics, it's certainly not clear that the american people would support a war with iran. We get pretty shook up about single or double digit KIA numbers. Iran would be several orders of magnitude larger.
When the strategic reserves start failing, the economic screws will really start to turn. We can't make this a aforever war where we just sit back and lob missiles at them for decades because that implies that hormuz and bab el mandeb will remain closed.
We have to stop saying that he is an idiot. He is a genius at playing his base and the media like a fiddle. The whole "I'm not real bright, but I can do things" is classic GRIFTER 101.
Every time you say he is dumb you are helping him out. It is exactly what he wants you to do.
> We have to stop saying that he is an idiot. He is a genius
we have to stop saying he's a mastermind playing 92-dimensional chess. he is very, very obviously an idiot. does he happen to be a circus animal that gets clicks because it's a huge spectacle that a chimpanzee in a diaper is in the whitehouse? yes. does that make him a genius? in the name of god, it does not.
This 100%. I often feel like the dialogue painting him up as any sort of mastermind comes from people who feel somewhat seen when others point out just how extensively the GOP's current power comes from long-running phenomena like creeping public apathy, lame-assed suburban white people constantly nudging the Overton window to the right because of brainrot and rampant consumerism, etc...
He's obviously an idiot. He could never have done any of this without the brainwashing of half of America: he never did that, he just rode it to power.
Agreed. Trump and MAGA is nothing beyond super-successful branding that was slapped on top of 150 years of neo-Confederate realignment that was best made possible by the fact that the U.S. didn't spend the 1870s-80s relentlessly hunting down and hanging every member of the South's traitorous leadership.
While it's clear to me the Republicans are going to try to rig the midterms it's not clear to me that they'll succeed. And I think the market for gasoline is now elastic enough that $6/gallon in the USA is not especially likely. (If nothing else we'll start seeing demand destruction at those prices.)
But we’ve already used up that safety valve. There isn’t another China in the wings to re-stop imports. Where’s the next buffer going to come from if the war keeps stretching forward?
China can only do so much though, and we don't know how much of that is from them releasing reserves as well as transitioning. We just know that they decreased their oil imports.
This is why i have a hybrid. All those old boomers where laughing (I work in a manufacturing plant) and all I have to do is say "damn gas was pricy, cost me $30 to fill up this week" and I get a lot of angry looks. For context most own pickup trucks.
I bought a used 2020 Chevy Bolt with 30k miles for $12k soon after the war started. It has a 300+ mile range for my driving habits. I have a 50-mile total commute each day. It fully charges overnight in my garage with just a regular wall outlet. Costs me maybe $75/month in electricity to run it.
Oh, and my state gave me a $2.5k rebate for buying it.
I work in a manufacturing plant with a bunch of old boomers. They wouldn't harass me persae, but they did make remarks, which granted were jokes, about it. So now im just returning the favor.
Right-wing Boomers and Xers are obsessed with a cartoon version of masculinity to a point where it's turned them completely degenerate. At the last job where I had to interact with a handful of those morons, I remember numerous interactions where I was declared 'gay', a 'pussy', 'a effeminate piece of shit', etc... because (a.) I drove a compact car, (b.) I had a stable hetero-normative marriage, (c.) I don't drink or smoke cigarettes, (d.) I don't care much about gambling, (e.) I got my COVID boosters, and (f.) I have a college degree (which played a role in the fact that I held a higher-paying role than them). Though I was considerably progressive in my political views, I always found it funny how I was also light years more lower-case-C conservative than all of those shitheads, the lot of whom were divorced, had neglected/estranged children all over the map, were constantly up to their ears in debt, and were usually alcoholics and/or drug addicts.
I bought a new Camry hybrid last year. We did the math and my wife, who teaches school in town, can do her entire commute for the entire school year on two tanks of gas. I work from home and take my 2003 Ranger out on Friday evenings to take the dog to the park and pick up beer.
Meanwhile there's all these dumbasses who bought $70K pavement princess pickups that get 12 MPG and are getting fucked up the ass by gas prices. And they all voted for Trump.
Its just like the dumb bastards who bought Hummers and Tuberbalanches in 2006 and then couldn't afford to drive them when oil hit $150 a barrel in 2008.
The average American is a dumb motherfucker, and half are dumber than that. They don't learn.
The issue is that all the everyday items you consume or use are in one way or another are tied to sea freight, that very much runs on oil. If not the products themselves, probably at least the precursors are tied to the chinese industry.
I also reckon that is why China bailed out the US and the world by reducing their oil buying. They want to keep their export economy going.
like 30-40% more than what is costs across the line id say right now
which is actually interesting becasue it used to be waaaaay more expensive here vs the US where it was worth driving down for the day to load up but now it really isnt so I can definitely see the rising cost of living in the US
overall its still cheaper than up here but its also been rising quicker ya know
Motorbike here, it cost me 20 bucks to fill. I used to fill half a tank of my car with 20 bucks during Biden. Will be super cool if everyone ride broke or scooter to go to work.
But the past few months have shown us a number of facts.
Our economy is no longer like the 1970's; the impact of oil cost shocks on the U.S. economy is much more muted, for a number of reasons (less impact of oil in the supply chains, more domestic production, more energy efficiency, ...). The Fed has noted this several times now.
The world and the various iterations of the SPR's actually work at mitigating the impacts of oil shocks; now, we have drawn down to 311 million barrels, which is the lowest in history (slightly lower than 2023), and the statuatory minimum is ~250 million barrels (who knows what the actual minimum is, due to collapse of the storage systems). So, in some way, we should marvel at the decision in 1975 to create the SPR, as it has done its job.
Inflation WAS likely going to cool; the new announcement of tariffs (pharmaceuticals, new ones on 60 countries, new Canadian tariffs) AND this new oil shock is going to raise it again. I'd imagine we could see us bouncing between 3 and 5 (non-core). This only raises the chances of a rate hike at the next meeting (IIRC, the probability was about a coin flip on various trading platforms).
This three way energy shock (Black Sea, Bandeb, Hormuz) is definitely going to be bigger; export restrictions from oil producing countries are likely to be a thing if this lasts appreciably longer. But the impacts on the downstream consumers and businesses are likely to be bigger.
This is about so much more than energy. Fertilizer prices were up as much as 87% this year, aluminum and Zinc are up more than 20%, Cobalt, tin etc. all up 60+% this year alone.
Inputs are flashing red across the board. How could this not lead to significant price inflation?
China essentially stopped importing oil. Their demand destruction helped by their frankly massive reserves has likely helped more than the United State's draw down.
Yes; I haven’t seen any reputable source estimating the impacts of the various SPR’s and policies, but the EU, US, and China have all had significant contributions to mitigating problems; so far.
Prices shooting up daily by my local gas stations out here in TX. Monday was 3.29 and yesterday was 3.79. At this rate, I expect it to be close to 4 or over today or tomorrow. I wish all these lunatics that support Trump could see the untold amounts of damage he’s caused this run. It’s midterms or bust yall
Im in PA and went on vacation for a week. Prices went from $3 before my vacation to $4.25 when I returned. A lot of gas stations are sitting at $4.30 right now. So much for the $2 gas Trump promised 🫤
Unfortunately, prices only matter when Democrats are in power and, even then, the people who make a big deal are usually just lying about that being a concern at all. Without exception, every MAGA person I've met in the past five years is usually in some crazy amount of credit-card debt, to a point where it's more than clear that they never stop to get a handle on their spending habits.
I think Iran knew they had time on their side and the cards as Trump likes to say. An escalation will favor Iran. They never wanted Trump in office and they will ride this past the midterms to destroy him.
$200 oil is coming.
Iran just needs to keep this up for another 5 months and trump will be toast.
Trumps war is no longer 2-3 weeks.
Oil is going to the moon not spacex
Paper or real price? Paper has lagged the actual physical exchange price which breached $150. I'm not calling it but we are one irrational decision away from catastrophe - and Iran isn't too stable either.
Paper price. My understanding is that the spikes/shocks of the last 20 years have all been assessed using the paper prices, so it's a more stable guide to what follows than the physical price. Physical prices are also subject to regional availability and aren't ideal for assessing the big picture.
Negative 40 oil came because of idiots in the Middle East so don’t be so naive.
Iran knows they can Fawk the world with oil prices. So that everyone who consumes oil will lose in their pocket books. That hitting you at the pumps, food will give you less money to give your kids a good life.
200 oil is not even that bad when indexed for inflation. Equivalent to prior oil spikes from the past.
Don’t be an ostrich and put your head in the sand and ignore it. Refineries are telling a very different story on oil with crack spreads at the highest levels ever! No past war or anything have raised them this high.
You’re very naive to think demand destruction.
“Oh don’t worry about oil going high, demand destruction, a new term I just learned will kick in and all will be well.”
sereneandeternal | 8 hours ago
Don’t worry. Supply and demand doesn’t matter anymore. We live in a circus.
All Trump needs to do is have Barak Ravid write another Axios article that they are TALKING TO QATAR about setting up a meeting with Iran, to have a CONCEPT of a peace deal. Boom oil down to $50
Thom0 | 8 hours ago
I think we are just seeing the outcome of inequality at large.
Most developing economies are grossly unequal with the majority being oligarchies or authoritarian regimes. The developed world isn't faring much better with cartel activity, and wealth inequality reaching all time highs resulting on de facto oligarchies.
Capital is now stagnant and increasingly centralized meaning the entire world is now being manipulated by competing billionaires and we are all just along for the ride. So much for free markets and democracy. We've gone right back to the era of mercantilism, and protectionism.
It's hard to take a pure numbers view on this as any economists might be inclined to do simply because we are seeing market manipulation and collusion in the US on a scale not see in modern times. An absurd level of corruption has become normalized and the boundary between public-private is becoming increasingly blurry. If it is this bad in the US then Russia, China, India, etc are either the same or worse.
I mean, is anyone even still using the GATT anymore? Not really, bilateral FTA's and BIT's have been the norm for decades at this point. I'm not sure how to describe the present situation as anything other than a return to mercantilism, and the kind of politics that comes with it.
dust4ngel | 3 hours ago
> So much for free markets and democracy
you can have capitalism, or you can have free markets and democracy, but you can't have both. markets and democracy are by definition characterized by the distribution of power, and the goal of capitalism and the thing that makes it work is the concentration of power.
No_Seaworthiness3625 | 41 minutes ago
Will the revolution be global? 🤔
Ezpz_commentz | 40 minutes ago
I had the idea even like 15 years ago that our current global economic and financial system is broken and if allowed to persist inevitably results in a world where a very few corporations and their owner families have purchased the "rights" to everything that matters.
I believe that competition and collaboration are both good and that people should have the freedom and capacity to run and manage their own production, but our modern unregulated mess of a system takes the idea of fair competition and commensurate rewards and shoots them both in the back.
To make an allegory it's not so much Trump suspending a red card with a call to the head of FIFA, rather it's like Trump and US billionaires successfully lobbying FIFA to seed team USA directly to the finals, where they start the match with a lead 100-0 and can't be called for fouls. And as long as FIFA gets its money, that's every World Cup.
jejunum32 | 7 hours ago
BRICS countries are the same or worse? Did you just use the logic that bc America is going downhill, then all of these other countries must be even worse, bc logically America is better than all of these other countries all of the time? What trash.
Thom0 | 6 hours ago
No, you're 100% right and I did mention this point in my comment but to be perfectly clear - the West is not the worst.
There is an overwhelming anti-Western bias in any, and all international contexts so it is important to emphasize that as bad as the West may be, the Global East and South is far worse in almost all metrics.
ReserveFormal3910 | 8 hours ago
Iran knows that the SOR is running dangerous low and the US and China can't keep up the artificially low price for far longer and may try to see how far they can take this.
bsfurr | 7 hours ago
That’s exactly what they’re gonna do. I feel like this is the elephant in the room right now. Anybody who thinks this conflict will be resolved in a matter of months is delusional. This will easily carry into 2027, barrels are going to climb well above $100, and consumer gas price is gonna be above $6 a gallon. On top of that Republicans are going to subvert democracy and rig the midterms. The French had some ideas about how to correct this oligarchy.
Lord-Dongalor | 6 hours ago
After a 20 year career in the military I feel confident saying that the Iran War is the next big American military campaign.
This isn’t going to be over in 2027. We’ll be lucky if it’s done in 2037. But the overwhelming likelihood, in my opinion, is that this will carry us to 2050.
The Defense Industrial Base aka the Military Industrial Complex, is running the show and has been for decades. Until killing people becomes unprofitable this is our next forever war.
24Seven | 6 hours ago
Maybe. If Democrats take both chambers, I think they gut funding for this thing. Even if that doesn't happen, I'm unconvinced that the next administration continues the war. It is massively unpopular and if it expands to a ground war, it will be even more unpopular. I think the next administration will be pressured to put an end to it.
7ddlysuns | 5 hours ago
Even if they just take the house they have to defund it. Or at least put reasonable demands on the funds that Trump can’t meet. Fire the man responsible etc
Fantastic-Head-128 | 4 hours ago
While I agree, I also think it's going to be difficult to get the genie back in the bottle.
twenty_three_three | 6 hours ago
> After a 20 year career in the military I feel confident saying that the Iran War is the next big American military campaign.
At the risk of straying far from economics, it's certainly not clear that the american people would support a war with iran. We get pretty shook up about single or double digit KIA numbers. Iran would be several orders of magnitude larger.
When the strategic reserves start failing, the economic screws will really start to turn. We can't make this a aforever war where we just sit back and lob missiles at them for decades because that implies that hormuz and bab el mandeb will remain closed.
bsfurr | 6 hours ago
Thank god we have a pedo narcissist reality tv show star as president with dementia. He’s almost as dumb as the people who voted for him… almost
arkofjoy | 5 hours ago
We have to stop saying that he is an idiot. He is a genius at playing his base and the media like a fiddle. The whole "I'm not real bright, but I can do things" is classic GRIFTER 101.
Every time you say he is dumb you are helping him out. It is exactly what he wants you to do.
dust4ngel | 3 hours ago
> We have to stop saying that he is an idiot. He is a genius
we have to stop saying he's a mastermind playing 92-dimensional chess. he is very, very obviously an idiot. does he happen to be a circus animal that gets clicks because it's a huge spectacle that a chimpanzee in a diaper is in the whitehouse? yes. does that make him a genius? in the name of god, it does not.
SanDiegoDude | 2 hours ago
he's just reaaaally good at being reeeeeaally corrupt.
A_Monster_Named_John | 2 hours ago
This 100%. I often feel like the dialogue painting him up as any sort of mastermind comes from people who feel somewhat seen when others point out just how extensively the GOP's current power comes from long-running phenomena like creeping public apathy, lame-assed suburban white people constantly nudging the Overton window to the right because of brainrot and rampant consumerism, etc...
thebigeverybody | 4 hours ago
He's obviously an idiot. He could never have done any of this without the brainwashing of half of America: he never did that, he just rode it to power.
A_Monster_Named_John | 2 hours ago
Agreed. Trump and MAGA is nothing beyond super-successful branding that was slapped on top of 150 years of neo-Confederate realignment that was best made possible by the fact that the U.S. didn't spend the 1870s-80s relentlessly hunting down and hanging every member of the South's traitorous leadership.
arkofjoy | 4 hours ago
Of course he did. Thry are all grifters. It is the biggest grift in the history of the grift.
But when you call them "idiots"
You are helping them. I am unlikely to change your mind. You have too much invested in them being idiots.
The best I can hope for is that someday they all write you a nice thank you note for your assistance in their grift.
thebigeverybody | 4 hours ago
> But when you call them "idiots"
Quote where I said that.
arkofjoy | 4 hours ago
You said "dumb" they essentially mean the same thing, the words are immaterial.
The point is that you are aiding and abetting them.
Do you want to be doing that?
AnswerGuy301 | 7 hours ago
While it's clear to me the Republicans are going to try to rig the midterms it's not clear to me that they'll succeed. And I think the market for gasoline is now elastic enough that $6/gallon in the USA is not especially likely. (If nothing else we'll start seeing demand destruction at those prices.)
Groovychick1978 | 7 hours ago
Where is this elasticity in the market? The only thing that has kept global inventory even remotely stable is because China stopped importing oil.
They have over a billion barrels in reserve, and their solar and wind programs take care of a huge chunk of energy demand.
AnswerGuy301 | 7 hours ago
You half-answered your own question. China is adapting even if the US is bringing up the rear.
eukomos | 7 hours ago
But we’ve already used up that safety valve. There isn’t another China in the wings to re-stop imports. Where’s the next buffer going to come from if the war keeps stretching forward?
HedonisticFrog | 6 hours ago
China can only do so much though, and we don't know how much of that is from them releasing reserves as well as transitioning. We just know that they decreased their oil imports.
bsfurr | 6 hours ago
You’re much more optimistic than me. I guess we’ll find out soon
Less_Volume8174 | 8 hours ago
I've been riding g and electric scooter to work and every thought it was funny at first but wait till gas hits $5. Who's going to be laughing now?
Freud-Network | 7 hours ago
Them, because people have proven they are incapable of learning a lesson they don't want to learn.
drizdar | 7 hours ago
There are still people who don't wash their hands after surviving COVID. Wild.
dust4ngel | 3 hours ago
pete hegseth doesn't wash his hands after taking a shit
volanger | 7 hours ago
This is why i have a hybrid. All those old boomers where laughing (I work in a manufacturing plant) and all I have to do is say "damn gas was pricy, cost me $30 to fill up this week" and I get a lot of angry looks. For context most own pickup trucks.
GreatLakesBadgerWI | 7 hours ago
You should try electric, only 9 bucks to fill up
volanger | 7 hours ago
Can't afford it, and too far for a scooter (23 miles one way)
lazydictionary | 4 hours ago
I bought a used 2020 Chevy Bolt with 30k miles for $12k soon after the war started. It has a 300+ mile range for my driving habits. I have a 50-mile total commute each day. It fully charges overnight in my garage with just a regular wall outlet. Costs me maybe $75/month in electricity to run it.
Oh, and my state gave me a $2.5k rebate for buying it.
TravestyTravis | an hour ago
I got a used 2013 Leaf for $2k, 50k miles. ~50 miles range (With my driving habits).
I can charge to full in about 2 hours at home for like $3.
DJanomaly | 6 hours ago
People were laughing at you for buying a hybrid? I can’t possibly imagine why. Saving money on gas is…bad?
People in this country are so incredibly stupid.
volanger | 5 hours ago
I work in a manufacturing plant with a bunch of old boomers. They wouldn't harass me persae, but they did make remarks, which granted were jokes, about it. So now im just returning the favor.
DJanomaly | 5 hours ago
Good for you!
A_Monster_Named_John | 2 hours ago
Right-wing Boomers and Xers are obsessed with a cartoon version of masculinity to a point where it's turned them completely degenerate. At the last job where I had to interact with a handful of those morons, I remember numerous interactions where I was declared 'gay', a 'pussy', 'a effeminate piece of shit', etc... because (a.) I drove a compact car, (b.) I had a stable hetero-normative marriage, (c.) I don't drink or smoke cigarettes, (d.) I don't care much about gambling, (e.) I got my COVID boosters, and (f.) I have a college degree (which played a role in the fact that I held a higher-paying role than them). Though I was considerably progressive in my political views, I always found it funny how I was also light years more lower-case-C conservative than all of those shitheads, the lot of whom were divorced, had neglected/estranged children all over the map, were constantly up to their ears in debt, and were usually alcoholics and/or drug addicts.
Constant-Plant-9378 | 4 hours ago
I bought a new Camry hybrid last year. We did the math and my wife, who teaches school in town, can do her entire commute for the entire school year on two tanks of gas. I work from home and take my 2003 Ranger out on Friday evenings to take the dog to the park and pick up beer.
Meanwhile there's all these dumbasses who bought $70K pavement princess pickups that get 12 MPG and are getting fucked up the ass by gas prices. And they all voted for Trump.
Its just like the dumb bastards who bought Hummers and Tuberbalanches in 2006 and then couldn't afford to drive them when oil hit $150 a barrel in 2008.
The average American is a dumb motherfucker, and half are dumber than that. They don't learn.
Emotional_Goal9525 | 5 hours ago
The issue is that all the everyday items you consume or use are in one way or another are tied to sea freight, that very much runs on oil. If not the products themselves, probably at least the precursors are tied to the chinese industry.
I also reckon that is why China bailed out the US and the world by reducing their oil buying. They want to keep their export economy going.
TheGracefulCrane | 5 hours ago
im paying like $8 a gallon here in canada lol
$5 sounds like a dream
HowdyDiarrhea | 4 hours ago
That's close to $5 in USD
TheGracefulCrane | 4 hours ago
Yeah but I dont get paid in usd lol
8 bucks usd to you is the same as 8 bucks cad to me ya know
HowdyDiarrhea | 4 hours ago
For sure. It's totally brutal.
TheGracefulCrane | 4 hours ago
Yeah man im really jealous of American cost of living sometimes but shit is what it is
HowdyDiarrhea | 4 hours ago
How's food up there? It's become insane down here. Even produce.
TheGracefulCrane | 4 hours ago
like 30-40% more than what is costs across the line id say right now
which is actually interesting becasue it used to be waaaaay more expensive here vs the US where it was worth driving down for the day to load up but now it really isnt so I can definitely see the rising cost of living in the US
overall its still cheaper than up here but its also been rising quicker ya know
No-Double-Trouble | 2 hours ago
Motorbike here, it cost me 20 bucks to fill. I used to fill half a tank of my car with 20 bucks during Biden. Will be super cool if everyone ride broke or scooter to go to work.
EconomistWithaD | 8 hours ago
We will see where they go.
But the past few months have shown us a number of facts.
Our economy is no longer like the 1970's; the impact of oil cost shocks on the U.S. economy is much more muted, for a number of reasons (less impact of oil in the supply chains, more domestic production, more energy efficiency, ...). The Fed has noted this several times now.
The world and the various iterations of the SPR's actually work at mitigating the impacts of oil shocks; now, we have drawn down to 311 million barrels, which is the lowest in history (slightly lower than 2023), and the statuatory minimum is ~250 million barrels (who knows what the actual minimum is, due to collapse of the storage systems). So, in some way, we should marvel at the decision in 1975 to create the SPR, as it has done its job.
Inflation WAS likely going to cool; the new announcement of tariffs (pharmaceuticals, new ones on 60 countries, new Canadian tariffs) AND this new oil shock is going to raise it again. I'd imagine we could see us bouncing between 3 and 5 (non-core). This only raises the chances of a rate hike at the next meeting (IIRC, the probability was about a coin flip on various trading platforms).
This three way energy shock (Black Sea, Bandeb, Hormuz) is definitely going to be bigger; export restrictions from oil producing countries are likely to be a thing if this lasts appreciably longer. But the impacts on the downstream consumers and businesses are likely to be bigger.
circuitloss | 3 hours ago
This is about so much more than energy. Fertilizer prices were up as much as 87% this year, aluminum and Zinc are up more than 20%, Cobalt, tin etc. all up 60+% this year alone.
Inputs are flashing red across the board. How could this not lead to significant price inflation?
HowdyDiarrhea | 4 hours ago
All good points. Should be interesting to see the effect of items 1 and 2 if a much prolonged war causes reserves to run dry.
greenroom628 | 3 hours ago
It's good thing we have US leadership that's really good at saving and using resources wisely. /s
gplfalt | 4 hours ago
On point 2.
China essentially stopped importing oil. Their demand destruction helped by their frankly massive reserves has likely helped more than the United State's draw down.
EconomistWithaD | 4 hours ago
Yes; I haven’t seen any reputable source estimating the impacts of the various SPR’s and policies, but the EU, US, and China have all had significant contributions to mitigating problems; so far.
ILoveTheAtomicBomb | 8 hours ago
Prices shooting up daily by my local gas stations out here in TX. Monday was 3.29 and yesterday was 3.79. At this rate, I expect it to be close to 4 or over today or tomorrow. I wish all these lunatics that support Trump could see the untold amounts of damage he’s caused this run. It’s midterms or bust yall
Forgot_my_name78 | 7 hours ago
Im in PA and went on vacation for a week. Prices went from $3 before my vacation to $4.25 when I returned. A lot of gas stations are sitting at $4.30 right now. So much for the $2 gas Trump promised 🫤
ballmermurland | 6 hours ago
It wasn't down to $3 it was around $3.60 or so. Now it's back up to $4.39 in central PA.
SanDiegoDude | 2 hours ago
> So much for the #### Trump promised 🫤
Insert anything you want, it's not gonna matter.
SkyDragon_0214 | 6 hours ago
Really, man? You haven't seen the meme that goes:
"Man, Donald Trump is doing such a great job! I used to only be able to put $60 worth of gas in my car. Now I can put $200 worth of gas!"
That's gonna be the lunatics you run into.
A_Monster_Named_John | 2 hours ago
Unfortunately, prices only matter when Democrats are in power and, even then, the people who make a big deal are usually just lying about that being a concern at all. Without exception, every MAGA person I've met in the past five years is usually in some crazy amount of credit-card debt, to a point where it's more than clear that they never stop to get a handle on their spending habits.
roarjah | 4 hours ago
I think Iran knew they had time on their side and the cards as Trump likes to say. An escalation will favor Iran. They never wanted Trump in office and they will ride this past the midterms to destroy him.
Resident_Window_9369 | 7 hours ago
$200 oil is coming.
Iran just needs to keep this up for another 5 months and trump will be toast.
Trumps war is no longer 2-3 weeks.
Oil is going to the moon not spacex
shiningdickhalloran | 7 hours ago
Demand destruction will take hold long before $200 arrives.
MickKeithCharlieRon | 7 hours ago
If that’s the case, we’ll be dealing with broader and bigger problems.
aurelorba | 6 hours ago
Paper or real price? Paper has lagged the actual physical exchange price which breached $150. I'm not calling it but we are one irrational decision away from catastrophe - and Iran isn't too stable either.
shiningdickhalloran | 5 hours ago
Paper price. My understanding is that the spikes/shocks of the last 20 years have all been assessed using the paper prices, so it's a more stable guide to what follows than the physical price. Physical prices are also subject to regional availability and aren't ideal for assessing the big picture.
Resident_Window_9369 | 6 hours ago
Negative 40 oil came because of idiots in the Middle East so don’t be so naive.
Iran knows they can Fawk the world with oil prices. So that everyone who consumes oil will lose in their pocket books. That hitting you at the pumps, food will give you less money to give your kids a good life.
200 oil is not even that bad when indexed for inflation. Equivalent to prior oil spikes from the past.
Don’t be an ostrich and put your head in the sand and ignore it. Refineries are telling a very different story on oil with crack spreads at the highest levels ever! No past war or anything have raised them this high.
You’re very naive to think demand destruction.
“Oh don’t worry about oil going high, demand destruction, a new term I just learned will kick in and all will be well.”
I have to say in the nicest way you’re dumb.
Fun-Classic-4694 | 5 hours ago
Oil to the moon not space x is amazing lmao
jejunum32 | 7 hours ago
Let’s hope oil price keeps climbing through November baby!
Constant-Plant-9378 | 4 hours ago
> $200 oil is coming.
Good. It will skyrocket EV demand.
You can shear a sheep many times, but you can only skin them once.