That’s just how long information takes to process from behind the Great Wall, and even then we are left unsure.
I can say this: controlling the flow of information is something China is good at, and America is attempting to become better at, though it often violates our freedoms as citizens (Chinese citizens live under a different set of beliefs about their freedoms).
There are literally British, American, and other nationality of reporters stationed in Beijing working for BBC, CNN, etc. They can't be assed to write a proper news article when this happens? You think a quarter of China's bank closing and these reporters are absolutely clueless of it happening? If so, then wtf are they doing and can we even trust their reporting then?
You realize that all of those reporters and agencies are subject to local laws, right?
Take Bloomberg, their broadcast is on a delayed feed to allow censorship rules to be effective. Talk bad about Xi on live air? Your feed till be blacked out during those comments (I’ve literally watched this happen in almost real-time). Continue to do so? Further actions are taken to include having you removed from the broadcast.
Yes, reporters are able to report on things. It must be in accordance with what the government allows you to report otherwise you can lose the privilege to be there as a reporter or a news agency.
This policy change was literally back in 2024. Read the actual article:
>Beijing’s policy-led consolidation saw a record 670 lenders closed in 2025 — about one-quarter of banks in the country — as authorities ramped up mergers and dissolutions to create fewer, larger and better-capitalized institutions, according to Fitch Ratings analysis.
Just spending 5 mins, I was able to find the actual change on the Chinese gov website, published in 2024.
> That’s just how long information takes to process from behind the Great Wall,
not really there was articles about this back then as well, government even announced it back in 2025...the chinese GOVERNMENT announced it, publicly back in 2025 when they started this! BUT THE SCALE aka the total numbers are being reported first by the FT a few days ago.....which is just reporting NFRA (chinese government) data, of course the NFRA data wasn't really organized in way to make reporting on this easy so you'd have to download it and play with reporting software to get the numbers. Those numbers where crunched by Fitch.
So what i would suggest is you seek help. Conspiracy brained nonsense is a sign of mental illness.
That's hardly surprising given how many media outlets there are in the US vs how many that goes through the trouble of getting info in Chinese and translating to english.
Oh yeah totally, just 80% of employees and GDP are owned and controlled by privately held firms that don't report anything publicly (and we've made it much easier over the years to stay that way, under the rules nowadays an Amazon or a Microsoft never would have went public) and can avoid even judicial warrants when needed, entirely free to break up and reincorporate with as many layers of obfuscation as needed, including via foreign banks and companies.
What panama papers? What happened to that reporter anyway?
it is not the Great Wall, that only affects regular people not journalists. It is the fencing of business and government information behind state-controlled apparatus. Nobody outside of their government, especially regular Chinese citizens, can get easy access to them.
It's increasingly difficult each year to use VPNs, and no they don't travel freely. If you're working in a sensitive industry, you can't even leave the country. There's border controls on people leaving, not just entering. Same with money, increasingly difficult and costly to move money out of the country.
that was literally what the inital poster was saying that started this chain of comments.
>That’s just how long information takes to process from behind the Great Wall, and even then we are left unsure.
We (the west) have access to the information in China, because it's NOT behind the GFW. It is OUR internet that is behind the GFW, inaccessible to Chinese nationals without a VPN.
Well I went to China and used a VPN throughout my entire time there.
Every Chinese person has a phone and internet.
The reason why they're increasing restrictions on Chinese AI developers is because the US seeks to either kidnap them or steal them away for industrial espionage and geopolitical bullying ourposes. Maybe if the US would fuck off and stop ruining the world they wouldn't have to safeguard their citizens.
Look. I'm not here to bullshit over semantics with you
The idea that China is a repressive hell hole just doesn't work anymore.
Millions of people visit China as tourists every year. Millions of Chinese also travel abroad for holidays.
The simple fact is that most Chinese couldn't give a single fuck about accessing Reddit in the same way that Americans aren't beating down the door to access Chinese message boards on WeChat it whatever the fuck they use.
People in China cannot change their residence place easily. This is not misinformation or propaganda this is a fact. I hope that you inform yourself before accusing other people...
They have American YouTubers who are economists that live there that put out information on the on goings in China all the time. It's not really a mystery.
You can't blame the great wall for everything and shouldn't it's not helpful. Just because you dont follow financial news doesn't mean that this is part of the wall issue.
It has literally been in the news [since 2024](https://asianbankingandfinance.net/retail-banking/exclusive/mergers-and-closures-loom-chinas-3800-rural-banks)
If you cry wolf when there's not one, no one will listen when there is.
China has no desire to replace the dollar with the Yuan as the world’s reserve currency. It really enjoys the ability to devalue the Yuan. It would rather have Euros enter as a healthy alternative, but it doesn’t want its own currency to do that while it’s still growing
Also, to be a global reserve currency, China would need to run a trade deficit as per Triffin deilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
>This supply function is nominally accomplished by international trade, with the country holding reserve currency status being required to run an inevitable trade deficit.
China just annouced a 1T trade surplus. They are NOT interested in the Yuan being the reserve currency.
It is ironically very hard to fix, "Our Dollar, Your Problem" spends quite a bit of time on this topic.
In the Eurozone there are more differences than similarities economically and fiscally. Many countries dont want to be forced into austerity and many countries dont want to be supporting others. France and Italy would love it if Germany could foot the bill for them, but Germany would never agree to that. And France and Italy would never agree to making the reforms Germany would require. Thats just an example, there are numerous others
It's so unfortunate not only how many people understand just this, but then of course would never understand the 2nd and 3rd order effects of this as well.
Xi Jinping says in The Governance of China that they must continue to raise people's living standards and education even though it may result in greater criticism of the party. He says the party must continue to be accountable to the people.
So yes he's aware, but wants to do the right thing anyway.
Makes no sense, i doubt the china is any more unstable than what it was a few decades back when it's gdp per capita was a tiny fraction of what it is today.
There will be no single reserve currency after the dollar.
The superpower age is finished. No country will be powerfully enough on its own to dominate the way the US used to.
I don’t think the west has made its peace with this. The dollar will be the last reserve currency. The idea of one single reserve currency isn’t possible anymore, it won’t exist.
Not like this one. We now live in a globalized world. The US dominance was only possible because multiple co-existing empires had decimated the rest of the world’s economy and then militarily destroyed themselves. The US was already industrialized and one of the many co-existing empires, so it basically took over the whole world. The first and only empire of a globalized world.
That is extremely unlikely to happen again. The world is too big for a single empire; it never happened before and almost certainly is impossible to happen again. The only way is for the entire world to be impoverished while one single country that is already extremely strong is left standing.
I just don’t see it ever happening. If our globalized system falls apart we could have local empires that dominate disconnected regions of the world. But I can’t imagine another scenario of the entire world being on its knees while one already powerful country is left. It seems so unlikely.
The US saw previous global powers stretch themselves thin and bankrupt themselves trying to manage massive empires so it took a different approach by making the rest of the world relatively friendly through business while also maintaining a network of military bases to destroy potential threats before they become serious
The Internet and mobile phone have connected people more than ever before to the point that barring a cataclysmic event it’s unlikely we ever go back.
People talk about the rise of China but honestly it has risen as a part of the US system and whether they acknowledge it or not, the US-led system is responsible for how rich and powerful China has become
Do you think it’s possible for another country to recreate the US model or to find a new one to become this kind of superpower again? If we stay fully globalized, I have a hard time imagining another country rising with this kind of power after the US.
For better or worse the US will rise again. It's geographically situated to be a global power. It's still a super power and in spite of Trump still globally dominant. The real question (that no one can answer) is what will happen after Trump.
Yea, it’s basically inevitable. There will always be a state that has a degree of economic and military power over others and wants to exercise that power for its own benefit
Without the US acting as a counter-balance in Europe and Asia for example, we would likely see Russia and China become more assertive both inside and outside their respective regions
It’s hard to imagine right now because although China is a rising power, it’s not quite on the level of a global power yet, and there really aren’t any other candidates at the moment. But hey, a lot can change in only a few decades
No one is replacing the dollar. There will be no multipolar reserve. (If you actually talk to these countries, there’s too much political maneuvering going on to make it work.)
People probably said the same thing about the Dutch folder and the British pound.
There's always a successor.
When the US blows up an enormous amount of money will flow out of it looking for a new host. Sure there'll be competition for that capital but when it eventually settles one nation will claim the spoils. It's highly unlikely to be Europe or India. It's going to be China.
There was no world economy back then. Those currencies weren’t the reserve of the entire world. The US dollar is the first reserve currency. That’s my point. Now the entire world is one economy. No currency has ever been the reserve for the world before. It didn’t exist.
The world as they knew it wasn’t the whole world. The whole world is too big for one country, even as the head of an empire, to dominate.
Even the UK didn’t dominate the world. Whole continents were outside its economic system, and also China, totally disconnected from the pound.
Yes, any country could dominate Europe. Sure. But no country can dominate Latin America, Africa, India, China, Europe all at once… the entire world won’t use one single currency as the reserve. It will never happen. It never happened before the dollar and will never happen again.
Sure, a country could dominate Europe again, you’re right. Easy.
The British empire was much bigger than Europe. In fact Europe wasn't part of the British empire.
The UK dominated the world as it existed.
The US dominated the world as it exists right now.
But the world is changing and the US is in late stage decline and China is it's successor. There's no other country that's even close to China right now, and that gap is only going to get bigger
Alright. I don’t see a possible reality in which an entire globally connected world uses the same reserve currency. It never happened before the dollar. Never. You keep saying that part of the world is the whole world. It’s not. Part of the world was interconnected in the past, never the whole world. You think that part of the world is equivalent with the whole world, and I don’t.
The global economy as it existed back then was dominated by the reserve currency of the time.
A reserve currency has network effects that's undeniable. If fact it's often the last vestige of empire. But there's absolutely nothing that says that one global reserve currency can't dissolve and be replaced by another.
China is already a bigger trade partner for most of the world than the US. They're already global. Once they do their finance buildout, it's game over for the dollar. People act like capital controls can't be rescinded. They absolutely can be, and China will wait for the right time to do so.
To be a reserve currency you have import a lot and run deficits. China has an internal consumption problem and is export dependent and doesn't necessarily need imports. There's a reason the Chinese keep the Yuan within their borders. They enjoy the exchange rates control they do have already and it's stability. The second the Yuan leaves their borders they lose that.
To name a few , their solution is to export their way out of it resulting in other countries closing their markets seeing its becoming a one way street which any decent economist could tell you 2 years ago when they switched all the funding from the housing market to production.
So please enlighten me how China will solve these issues?
This is an economics reddit but i see way to many post with no economic basis whatsoever.
There will be a single synthetic trade currency. It’s a terrible name, but the Canadian PM is working on a Hegemonic Synthetic Currency in the background. The first step is to get Europe to consolidate their financial markets - which they just started discussing.
Do you see this actually coming to fruition in reality or just being a goal that never is put into practice? It would require an enormous amount of coordination with the developing world (the vast majority of the world’s population), and I doubt they are interested in it.
But has anyone asked them? They had a very negative reaction to Carney’s Davos speech and some others of his, and Europe and Canada still have no idea. They seem to not be interested in a world in which the former colonial powers build their own international institutions and then try to foist them on the rest of the world.
I don’t think they’re interested. Europe and Canada are interested, but they are alone in that, I think. They are their own little bubble. I don’t think the majority of the world is interested. They won’t be “brought in” by anyone if they don’t want to. We should ask them. They’ll tell us, and then we won’t be mistaken anymore.
Who is they? MERCOSUR? They just signed a trade agreement with the EU. I don’t think they’ve been asked yet they are too politically unstable right now with the US interfering a lot.
Ask them if they want a synthetic trade currency created by Europe and Canada. That’s what I mean, that’s the topic at hand. And ask China and India and Russia.
They don’t want it. Ask them if they want a synthetic trade currency created by Europe and Canada. They don’t want it and won’t use it.
A synthetic trade currency would use a basket made of a weighted combination of all participants currencies. I think they would be open to that. There would however have to be conditions they meet on their currency management. China wouldn’t qualify for example.
So a reserve currency that doesn’t include the second largest economy in the world and through which Europe controls the domestic monetary policy of non-European states?
Not only is this not a global reserve currency, it is not a deal that non-European countries will agree to.
Europe and Canada and maybe Australia or whatever can choose to do their own thing and use it. But they will only be able to use it with each other. Doesn’t seem worth the effort to me.
To be a reserve currency you need to import. China is export dependent and struggles with internal consumption. There's no way they'll import enough to be a reserve currency for a very long time. As of right now, Chinese policy is to keep as much yuan within their borders as possible.
>Small and rural commercial banks “remain the weakest part of the system” in China, Fitch said in a report, which flagged their “poor asset quality, low capitalization and governance shortcomings,” especially in less-developed regions of the country.
I believe this move is to create stability you daft ape
I would rather see a basket of currencies as a buffer for reserves, not another USD wannabee, but I'm not sure how realistic that would be performance wise. I would like even more if regions created economic blocks with their own (parallel, though it could always evolve to become something like the euro not "just an ECU") currency, to increase stability (not just monetary), and those could work wonderfully as reserves.
The alternative would be having stakes on the other country's market not the currency itself. Iirc Norway does this to an extent?
> Fitch said, noting that stress at smaller lenders is unlikely to lead to system-wide contagion, pointing to their largely localized operations and limited interbank exposure.
This is a nothing burger from last year. All countries have problems, but it seem China is actively solving them while the west seem to be digging themselves into a deeper hole.
hmmm let's see...more rural unemployment, less lending. less support for small businesses
meanwhile in the cities the banks survive on gov't loans to SOEs
banks in China don't even know how to lend wisely, they've never been incentivized to learn
this might be a 'safer' move but it is not fixing any sort of problem. it will quite obviously lead to less lending, less business development...it's a concession, and a big one.
moreesq | 5 hours ago
The headline makes it sound like this was a recent move by the Chinese financial authorities, but the article says that the closures occurred in 2025.
petr_bena | 3 hours ago
I work in fintech this started long time ago, foreign companies providing consumer loans started being significantly limited more like 6 years ago
082426grateful | 5 hours ago
That’s just how long information takes to process from behind the Great Wall, and even then we are left unsure.
I can say this: controlling the flow of information is something China is good at, and America is attempting to become better at, though it often violates our freedoms as citizens (Chinese citizens live under a different set of beliefs about their freedoms).
sicklyslick | 4 hours ago
There are literally British, American, and other nationality of reporters stationed in Beijing working for BBC, CNN, etc. They can't be assed to write a proper news article when this happens? You think a quarter of China's bank closing and these reporters are absolutely clueless of it happening? If so, then wtf are they doing and can we even trust their reporting then?
Hellsniperr | 3 hours ago
You realize that all of those reporters and agencies are subject to local laws, right?
Take Bloomberg, their broadcast is on a delayed feed to allow censorship rules to be effective. Talk bad about Xi on live air? Your feed till be blacked out during those comments (I’ve literally watched this happen in almost real-time). Continue to do so? Further actions are taken to include having you removed from the broadcast.
Yes, reporters are able to report on things. It must be in accordance with what the government allows you to report otherwise you can lose the privilege to be there as a reporter or a news agency.
sicklyslick | 2 hours ago
This policy change was literally back in 2024. Read the actual article:
>Beijing’s policy-led consolidation saw a record 670 lenders closed in 2025 — about one-quarter of banks in the country — as authorities ramped up mergers and dissolutions to create fewer, larger and better-capitalized institutions, according to Fitch Ratings analysis.
Just spending 5 mins, I was able to find the actual change on the Chinese gov website, published in 2024.
http://english.scio.gov.cn/m/pressroom/2024-09/12/content_117424186_6.html
So, again, I ask, wtf are these foreigners reporters in China doing in 2024, if they're not going to bother report these policy changes?
90_degrees | an hour ago
Completely agreed. This is beyond absurd now.
Suitable-Economy-346 | 2 hours ago
This has been widely known for years now. You're still brainwashed with anti-China propaganda because you're an old man stuck in the 1990's.
Willing_Activity_855 | 5 hours ago
> That’s just how long information takes to process from behind the Great Wall,
not really there was articles about this back then as well, government even announced it back in 2025...the chinese GOVERNMENT announced it, publicly back in 2025 when they started this! BUT THE SCALE aka the total numbers are being reported first by the FT a few days ago.....which is just reporting NFRA (chinese government) data, of course the NFRA data wasn't really organized in way to make reporting on this easy so you'd have to download it and play with reporting software to get the numbers. Those numbers where crunched by Fitch.
So what i would suggest is you seek help. Conspiracy brained nonsense is a sign of mental illness.
NotTooShahby | 5 hours ago
None of what he said was conspiracy brained. It’s a fact that we don’t know exactly what’s happening in China compared to the US
Transparency Index: https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/china
TinyParamedic | 4 hours ago
That's hardly surprising given how many media outlets there are in the US vs how many that goes through the trouble of getting info in Chinese and translating to english.
Iron-Fist | 3 hours ago
>compared to US
Oh yeah totally, just 80% of employees and GDP are owned and controlled by privately held firms that don't report anything publicly (and we've made it much easier over the years to stay that way, under the rules nowadays an Amazon or a Microsoft never would have went public) and can avoid even judicial warrants when needed, entirely free to break up and reincorporate with as many layers of obfuscation as needed, including via foreign banks and companies.
What panama papers? What happened to that reporter anyway?
Like we said total transparency.
June1994 | 4 hours ago
That’s because you don’t speak or read Mandarin. Not because of the Great Firewall.
NotTooShahby | 2 hours ago
Cope: https://www.transparency.org/en/countries/china
Another one: https://composite-indicators.jrc.ec.europa.eu/explorer/indices/t-index/transparency-index
June1994 | 40 minutes ago
Cope. Learn Mandarin.
082426grateful | 5 hours ago
I would suggest, to myself, that I block you, as considerate and respectful conversation doesn’t appear to be your strong suit. Or a skill at all.
If you have bias toward the DRC, please come forth with that ahead of time, rather than gaslighting others on the sub.
No_Expert_6093 | 4 hours ago
What the fuck are you talking about?
082426grateful | 4 hours ago
We’re having a block party around here today. Perhaps bots. Perhaps nervous citizens, who are betting on the good times continuing forever.
Informal_Alarm_5369 | 3 hours ago
it is not the Great Wall, that only affects regular people not journalists. It is the fencing of business and government information behind state-controlled apparatus. Nobody outside of their government, especially regular Chinese citizens, can get easy access to them.
Ahoramaster | 4 hours ago
You realise the Chinese have internet right. They travel freely.
ChaosRevealed | 4 hours ago
I'd argue you're wrong on both counts.
It's increasingly difficult each year to use VPNs, and no they don't travel freely. If you're working in a sensitive industry, you can't even leave the country. There's border controls on people leaving, not just entering. Same with money, increasingly difficult and costly to move money out of the country.
sicklyslick | 4 hours ago
The GFW is one way. It blocks information on western sites for people IN china.
You can freely access Chinese sites in the west, although some may requrie a Chinese phone number to register, like Douyin.
ChaosRevealed | 3 hours ago
I don't think anyone was talking about access to Chinese Internet.
sicklyslick | 3 hours ago
that was literally what the inital poster was saying that started this chain of comments.
>That’s just how long information takes to process from behind the Great Wall, and even then we are left unsure.
We (the west) have access to the information in China, because it's NOT behind the GFW. It is OUR internet that is behind the GFW, inaccessible to Chinese nationals without a VPN.
ChaosRevealed | 3 hours ago
I responded to
>You realise the Chinese have internet right. They travel freely.
I think we're talking past each other at this point
Ahoramaster | 3 hours ago
Well I went to China and used a VPN throughout my entire time there.
Every Chinese person has a phone and internet.
The reason why they're increasing restrictions on Chinese AI developers is because the US seeks to either kidnap them or steal them away for industrial espionage and geopolitical bullying ourposes. Maybe if the US would fuck off and stop ruining the world they wouldn't have to safeguard their citizens.
ChaosRevealed | 3 hours ago
>Well I went to China
This is your justification?
别闹了😂😂
Ahoramaster | 3 hours ago
It's my own personal experience and used a VPN first hand.
ChaosRevealed | 3 hours ago
It's almost as if I said
>It's increasingly difficult each year to use VPNs.
Ahoramaster | 3 hours ago
Look. I'm not here to bullshit over semantics with you
The idea that China is a repressive hell hole just doesn't work anymore.
Millions of people visit China as tourists every year. Millions of Chinese also travel abroad for holidays.
The simple fact is that most Chinese couldn't give a single fuck about accessing Reddit in the same way that Americans aren't beating down the door to access Chinese message boards on WeChat it whatever the fuck they use.
ChaosRevealed | 3 hours ago
这老外为什么还在说教？
BluePrintSpec | 3 hours ago
name one kidnapping
Ahoramaster | 3 hours ago
Meng from Huawei
BluePrintSpec | 3 hours ago
that was a Canada trial. try again.
Ahoramaster | 3 hours ago
Sure it occurred in Canada but the order came from John Bolton on behalf of the Trump admin. It's well documented.
Don't be clueless.
BluePrintSpec | 3 hours ago
The US doesn't give Canada orders. Understand what a sovereign nation is.
Meng's charges were only dismissed when China kidnapped two Canadians.
haroldthehampster | 2 hours ago
Almost every country has restrictions for sensitive industry travel. The US has 16 industries this applies to.
XMabbX | 4 hours ago
They don't travel freely, you cannot even relocate, change your residence, inside China itself.
Ahoramaster | 4 hours ago
Explain to me why I saw a shit load of Chinese tourists in Scotland then.
You guys are ingesting too much propaganda and misrepresentation.
XMabbX | 3 hours ago
People in China cannot change their residence place easily. This is not misinformation or propaganda this is a fact. I hope that you inform yourself before accusing other people...
Ahoramaster | 3 hours ago
It's a different thing.
You're confusing the Hukou system with freedom to travel.
Overfree | 3 hours ago
现如今，中国各个城市都在抢人口。除了北京上海的户口难以获得，其他地方都已经是自由迁徙了。
Ass4ssinX | an hour ago
They have American YouTubers who are economists that live there that put out information on the on goings in China all the time. It's not really a mystery.
DrawingDramatic1641 | 4 hours ago
literally false
there is like minutes of gap in firewall.
firewall means it blocks harmful media that china thinks not that it makes a literal wall you gotta climb,its the same internet
chinese internet is part of the the internet.
it takes one button to open vpn for me
082426grateful | 4 hours ago
The block party continues.
Post makes no sense.
haroldthehampster | 2 hours ago
You can't blame the great wall for everything and shouldn't it's not helpful. Just because you dont follow financial news doesn't mean that this is part of the wall issue.
It has literally been in the news [since 2024](https://asianbankingandfinance.net/retail-banking/exclusive/mergers-and-closures-loom-chinas-3800-rural-banks)
If you cry wolf when there's not one, no one will listen when there is.
AffectionateKey7126 | 2 hours ago
China banks SLAMMED as CCP shutters bank in midst of banking CHAOS
daftmonkey | 5 hours ago
When people talk about replacing the dollar as he worlds reserve currency stories like this don’t exactly inspire confidence in the alternatives…
herworkthrowaway | 5 hours ago
China has no desire to replace the dollar with the Yuan as the world’s reserve currency. It really enjoys the ability to devalue the Yuan. It would rather have Euros enter as a healthy alternative, but it doesn’t want its own currency to do that while it’s still growing
ThirdHuman | 5 hours ago
Right. Chinese economic policy is totally incompatible with meaningful reserve currency status.
Elizabeth-WildFox886 | 5 hours ago
Capital controls is also a major problem due to flight risks
Ada_Kaleh22 | 2 hours ago
and flight risks are a problem due to...lol
but you're right, no argument there
sicklyslick | 4 hours ago
Also, to be a global reserve currency, China would need to run a trade deficit as per Triffin deilemma https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma
>This supply function is nominally accomplished by international trade, with the country holding reserve currency status being required to run an inevitable trade deficit.
China just annouced a 1T trade surplus. They are NOT interested in the Yuan being the reserve currency.
PoopyisSmelly | 5 hours ago
Euros wont be either because they dont have the ability to issue debt as a single monetary authority. Debt is a neccesity for a reserve currency
Ada_Kaleh22 | 2 hours ago
that doesn't seem terribly hard to fix
PoopyisSmelly | 2 hours ago
It is ironically very hard to fix, "Our Dollar, Your Problem" spends quite a bit of time on this topic.
In the Eurozone there are more differences than similarities economically and fiscally. Many countries dont want to be forced into austerity and many countries dont want to be supporting others. France and Italy would love it if Germany could foot the bill for them, but Germany would never agree to that. And France and Italy would never agree to making the reforms Germany would require. Thats just an example, there are numerous others
Ada_Kaleh22 | 2 hours ago
yes, you are right I am wrong here, it's not so easy. the Eurozone has a ways to go.
I was thinking, well, not *structurally* impossible but as you say all sorts of structural problems in fact
Virtual_Magazine_860 | 5 hours ago
It's so unfortunate not only how many people understand just this, but then of course would never understand the 2nd and 3rd order effects of this as well.
NotTooShahby | 5 hours ago
Sometimes I wonder if China even wants the country to have a high GDP per capita lest it threatens the stability of the state
Ok_Industry_8377 | 3 hours ago
China wants to develop lol
moonsugarcornflakes | 2 hours ago
Xi Jinping says in The Governance of China that they must continue to raise people's living standards and education even though it may result in greater criticism of the party. He says the party must continue to be accountable to the people.
So yes he's aware, but wants to do the right thing anyway.
x_BlackWind | 4 hours ago
Why would a high gdp per capita threaten the state?
NotTooShahby | 4 hours ago
Higher consumer spending means higher standards and more autonomy.
x_BlackWind | 4 hours ago
Makes no sense, i doubt the china is any more unstable than what it was a few decades back when it's gdp per capita was a tiny fraction of what it is today.
Cybertronian10 | 2 hours ago
I don't think they want anyone to have the US' privileged status, they would rather be first amongst peers.
JefeRex | 5 hours ago
There will be no single reserve currency after the dollar.
The superpower age is finished. No country will be powerfully enough on its own to dominate the way the US used to.
I don’t think the west has made its peace with this. The dollar will be the last reserve currency. The idea of one single reserve currency isn’t possible anymore, it won’t exist.
Maleficent-Bug7998 | 5 hours ago
Last for now. Empires rise and fall.
JefeRex | 5 hours ago
Not like this one. We now live in a globalized world. The US dominance was only possible because multiple co-existing empires had decimated the rest of the world’s economy and then militarily destroyed themselves. The US was already industrialized and one of the many co-existing empires, so it basically took over the whole world. The first and only empire of a globalized world.
That is extremely unlikely to happen again. The world is too big for a single empire; it never happened before and almost certainly is impossible to happen again. The only way is for the entire world to be impoverished while one single country that is already extremely strong is left standing.
I just don’t see it ever happening. If our globalized system falls apart we could have local empires that dominate disconnected regions of the world. But I can’t imagine another scenario of the entire world being on its knees while one already powerful country is left. It seems so unlikely.
ResponsibleClock9289 | 4 hours ago
The US is responsible for the world globalizing
The US saw previous global powers stretch themselves thin and bankrupt themselves trying to manage massive empires so it took a different approach by making the rest of the world relatively friendly through business while also maintaining a network of military bases to destroy potential threats before they become serious
The Internet and mobile phone have connected people more than ever before to the point that barring a cataclysmic event it’s unlikely we ever go back.
People talk about the rise of China but honestly it has risen as a part of the US system and whether they acknowledge it or not, the US-led system is responsible for how rich and powerful China has become
JefeRex | 4 hours ago
Do you think it’s possible for another country to recreate the US model or to find a new one to become this kind of superpower again? If we stay fully globalized, I have a hard time imagining another country rising with this kind of power after the US.
Maleficent-Bug7998 | 4 hours ago
For better or worse the US will rise again. It's geographically situated to be a global power. It's still a super power and in spite of Trump still globally dominant. The real question (that no one can answer) is what will happen after Trump.
ResponsibleClock9289 | an hour ago
It’s undergoing a bit of an identity crisis IMO
Parts of the population don’t agree with the US having global influence/interventions overseas while others understand how beneficial it is
ResponsibleClock9289 | 4 hours ago
Yea, it’s basically inevitable. There will always be a state that has a degree of economic and military power over others and wants to exercise that power for its own benefit
Without the US acting as a counter-balance in Europe and Asia for example, we would likely see Russia and China become more assertive both inside and outside their respective regions
It’s hard to imagine right now because although China is a rising power, it’s not quite on the level of a global power yet, and there really aren’t any other candidates at the moment. But hey, a lot can change in only a few decades
origami_bluebird | an hour ago
!remind me in 20 years when the United States becomes a vassal state of China
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simonbleu | 5 hours ago
Hopefully no other one rises tho. Long live to (peaceful) multipolarity
omniumoptimus | 4 hours ago
No one is replacing the dollar. There will be no multipolar reserve. (If you actually talk to these countries, there’s too much political maneuvering going on to make it work.)
Ahoramaster | 4 hours ago
This is unlikely to age well.
People probably said the same thing about the Dutch folder and the British pound.
There's always a successor.
When the US blows up an enormous amount of money will flow out of it looking for a new host. Sure there'll be competition for that capital but when it eventually settles one nation will claim the spoils. It's highly unlikely to be Europe or India. It's going to be China.
JefeRex | 4 hours ago
There was no world economy back then. Those currencies weren’t the reserve of the entire world. The US dollar is the first reserve currency. That’s my point. Now the entire world is one economy. No currency has ever been the reserve for the world before. It didn’t exist.
Ahoramaster | 3 hours ago
Well that's not true because the world was the world as they knew it. The same is true now. Some countries are declining and some are rising.
The UK was all powerful and the US was a growing power. It's the same now except now it's China eclipsing the US.
JefeRex | 3 hours ago
The world as they knew it wasn’t the whole world. The whole world is too big for one country, even as the head of an empire, to dominate.
Even the UK didn’t dominate the world. Whole continents were outside its economic system, and also China, totally disconnected from the pound.
Yes, any country could dominate Europe. Sure. But no country can dominate Latin America, Africa, India, China, Europe all at once… the entire world won’t use one single currency as the reserve. It will never happen. It never happened before the dollar and will never happen again.
Sure, a country could dominate Europe again, you’re right. Easy.
Ahoramaster | 3 hours ago
The British empire was much bigger than Europe. In fact Europe wasn't part of the British empire.
The UK dominated the world as it existed.
The US dominated the world as it exists right now.
But the world is changing and the US is in late stage decline and China is it's successor. There's no other country that's even close to China right now, and that gap is only going to get bigger
JefeRex | 3 hours ago
Alright. I don’t see a possible reality in which an entire globally connected world uses the same reserve currency. It never happened before the dollar. Never. You keep saying that part of the world is the whole world. It’s not. Part of the world was interconnected in the past, never the whole world. You think that part of the world is equivalent with the whole world, and I don’t.
Ahoramaster | 3 hours ago
Yes. That's my argument
The global economy as it existed back then was dominated by the reserve currency of the time.
A reserve currency has network effects that's undeniable. If fact it's often the last vestige of empire. But there's absolutely nothing that says that one global reserve currency can't dissolve and be replaced by another.
China is already a bigger trade partner for most of the world than the US. They're already global. Once they do their finance buildout, it's game over for the dollar. People act like capital controls can't be rescinded. They absolutely can be, and China will wait for the right time to do so.
Dependent_Quantity8 | 3 hours ago
To be a reserve currency you have import a lot and run deficits. China has an internal consumption problem and is export dependent and doesn't necessarily need imports. There's a reason the Chinese keep the Yuan within their borders. They enjoy the exchange rates control they do have already and it's stability. The second the Yuan leaves their borders they lose that.
LostandFound255 | 48 minutes ago
Ok
So how will china solve
- Housing Crisis
- Pension Crisis
- Bankrupt Local govs
- Low birthrate
- Youth unemployment
- Low domestic consumption
To name a few , their solution is to export their way out of it resulting in other countries closing their markets seeing its becoming a one way street which any decent economist could tell you 2 years ago when they switched all the funding from the housing market to production.
So please enlighten me how China will solve these issues?
This is an economics reddit but i see way to many post with no economic basis whatsoever.
Harbinger2001 | 5 hours ago
There will be a single synthetic trade currency. It’s a terrible name, but the Canadian PM is working on a Hegemonic Synthetic Currency in the background. The first step is to get Europe to consolidate their financial markets - which they just started discussing.
JefeRex | 5 hours ago
Do you see this actually coming to fruition in reality or just being a goal that never is put into practice? It would require an enormous amount of coordination with the developing world (the vast majority of the world’s population), and I doubt they are interested in it.
Harbinger2001 | 3 hours ago
I expect the CPTPP with EU will make it happen. Then they’ll bring in MERCOSUR.
JefeRex | 3 hours ago
But has anyone asked them? They had a very negative reaction to Carney’s Davos speech and some others of his, and Europe and Canada still have no idea. They seem to not be interested in a world in which the former colonial powers build their own international institutions and then try to foist them on the rest of the world.
I don’t think they’re interested. Europe and Canada are interested, but they are alone in that, I think. They are their own little bubble. I don’t think the majority of the world is interested. They won’t be “brought in” by anyone if they don’t want to. We should ask them. They’ll tell us, and then we won’t be mistaken anymore.
Harbinger2001 | 3 hours ago
Who is they? MERCOSUR? They just signed a trade agreement with the EU. I don’t think they’ve been asked yet they are too politically unstable right now with the US interfering a lot.
JefeRex | 3 hours ago
Ask them if they want a synthetic trade currency created by Europe and Canada. That’s what I mean, that’s the topic at hand. And ask China and India and Russia.
They don’t want it. Ask them if they want a synthetic trade currency created by Europe and Canada. They don’t want it and won’t use it.
Harbinger2001 | 2 hours ago
A synthetic trade currency would use a basket made of a weighted combination of all participants currencies. I think they would be open to that. There would however have to be conditions they meet on their currency management. China wouldn’t qualify for example.
JefeRex | 18 minutes ago
So a reserve currency that doesn’t include the second largest economy in the world and through which Europe controls the domestic monetary policy of non-European states?
Not only is this not a global reserve currency, it is not a deal that non-European countries will agree to.
Europe and Canada and maybe Australia or whatever can choose to do their own thing and use it. But they will only be able to use it with each other. Doesn’t seem worth the effort to me.
Dependent_Quantity8 | 3 hours ago
To be a reserve currency you need to import. China is export dependent and struggles with internal consumption. There's no way they'll import enough to be a reserve currency for a very long time. As of right now, Chinese policy is to keep as much yuan within their borders as possible.
ReturnoftheSpack | 5 hours ago
>Small and rural commercial banks “remain the weakest part of the system” in China, Fitch said in a report, which flagged their “poor asset quality, low capitalization and governance shortcomings,” especially in less-developed regions of the country.
I believe this move is to create stability you daft ape
sabiondo | 2 hours ago
But this is something that all occidental countries did in the last 40 years.
Here they put in the title "consolidations or fusion", not "shut".
PrinnyFriend | 5 hours ago
There will not be another reserve currency. Instead there will be several. It is already happening more and more every year.
simonbleu | 5 hours ago
I would rather see a basket of currencies as a buffer for reserves, not another USD wannabee, but I'm not sure how realistic that would be performance wise. I would like even more if regions created economic blocks with their own (parallel, though it could always evolve to become something like the euro not "just an ECU") currency, to increase stability (not just monetary), and those could work wonderfully as reserves.
The alternative would be having stakes on the other country's market not the currency itself. Iirc Norway does this to an extent?
And well, of course, commodities
sb5550 | 3 hours ago
We will know better when the next financial meltdown hit and the US dollar bubble pops.
sndream | 3 hours ago
> Fitch said, noting that stress at smaller lenders is unlikely to lead to system-wide contagion, pointing to their largely localized operations and limited interbank exposure.
This is a nothing burger from last year. All countries have problems, but it seem China is actively solving them while the west seem to be digging themselves into a deeper hole.
Ada_Kaleh22 | 2 hours ago
hmmm let's see...more rural unemployment, less lending. less support for small businesses
meanwhile in the cities the banks survive on gov't loans to SOEs
banks in China don't even know how to lend wisely, they've never been incentivized to learn
this might be a 'safer' move but it is not fixing any sort of problem. it will quite obviously lead to less lending, less business development...it's a concession, and a big one.
LostandFound255 | 46 minutes ago
Its tiresome , most of these people dont pay any attention to actual economic data coming out of China besides a handfull of headlines.