Stock futures bounce 500 points as traders shake off firm inflation data and oil prices retreat: Live updates

225 points by One-Emu-1103 14 hours ago on reddit | 124 comments

d4electro | 14 hours ago

Market rises as a giant portal to the netherworld opens in the middle of the US, the sea turns red as blood and the sky is enveloped in a starless darkness

Netherworld portal already priced in.

discosoc | 8 hours ago

Traders are forward-looking and expect netherworld portal to be gone next quarter.

absat41 | 8 hours ago

Data driven portals hit deeper; new AI driven core-memory netherworld portals are all front functional. Thus, market upticks.

EDIT; I am talking BS.

__Rick_Sanchez__ | 14 hours ago

Thank you

Shoddy_Walk_8106 | 12 hours ago

Why are aliens and portals to the netherworld always coming for the US?

d4electro | 12 hours ago

Because it's the greatest country in the history of mankind obviously

callmesnake13 | 11 hours ago

I wonder who is meant to be buying this shit that seems to be priced-in 275 years into the future at this point

d4electro | 10 hours ago

People that want to hold onto it as the value goes up and sell it to make a profit later

callmesnake13 | 10 hours ago

Like beanie babies

WayneKrane | 12 hours ago

The dow at five hundred thou!

Quick1711 | 8 hours ago

Leave Vance out of this /s

jmdybf | 6 hours ago

Every other day…. Small DIP (Purchases) medium rise! Rinse repeat

CremedelaSmegma | 4 hours ago

S&P rises even as infernal entities negotiate territorial rights; investors say the real story is tomorrow’s Fed press conference.

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 14 hours ago

With all the bad news like that inflation report, the strong probability that the Fed is going to hike interest rates, Houthis seizing that port in the Red Sea, diesel being $6.00 a gallon in the US and oil over $100.00 a barrel why is it going up?

Straight_Flan1347 | 14 hours ago

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

Raidaz75 | 14 hours ago

You'll hit psychosis before markets stabilize

WayneKrane | 12 hours ago

Yep, just buy and don’t look at your portfolio if you want to sleep well at night.

crowcawer | 12 hours ago

Shadow trading also happens: ie overnight floats, undisclosed cash infusions, Banana Republic had a pretty good Labor Day sale.

Clawdius_Talonious | 13 hours ago

Sadly if the market remains irrational long enough, we may need to become Soylent. /s

RYNNYMAYNE | 12 hours ago

The people need Soylent Green

ChaoticGoodSamaritan | 7 hours ago

Markets surge on news the average man now has a chance to be inside Sydney Sweeney

DialecticEnjoyer | 13 hours ago

or in other words, hope springs eternal and investors tend to be rather myopic when it comes to a win.

by end of day i suspect this rally will largely have fizzled out, if not turned negative once again because:

- Bessent cant help himself and will probably reassert his distaste for a rate hike.

- Trump cant help himself and will probably propose something bombastic like shuttering trade entirely with Canada or restarting the tariff war with China.

- Investors will have to change the channel sometime. Houthis now control the entirety of the coastline of Yemen into the red sea, rendering the Saudi pipeline alternative useless. they have also reiterated intent to attack any saudi ship.

spendology | 13 hours ago

Volatility happens in both directions: up and down.

kosk11348 | 11 hours ago

But not forever.

readtheinstructions5 | 13 hours ago

In 2006 when it became common knowledge just how much fraud was in the bond market. The stocks for the bond holding companies did not go down and went up in a few instances. It had a Wylie Coyote off the cliff moment and it took about two weeks to figure out they were fucked and crashed

Maxpowr9 | 12 hours ago

I see the same with private lending. The cracks are already there and higher rates means the cracks grow wider. Those rate resets are gonna be nasty in Q1 2027.

thewayshesaidLA | 13 hours ago

October is for crashes.

Olangotang | 10 hours ago

Anthropic is IPOing then! 🤔

Thecuckeningends | 14 hours ago

Because its all made up

joepez | 13 hours ago

The market has moved into heavy speculation mode. There’s betting going on that reflects the good times won’t end come Nov elections. There’s speculation that consumer spend will keep on rolling and couple with inflation yields even higher profits. And of course the magic of AI. Finally you have the roller coaster taco “everyday” chaos that you can bet on.

Put that all together and you have a market that can defy reality for quite a while.

Micksar | 14 hours ago

Time will tell.

Fluid-Sense-4273 | 13 hours ago

Prop it up long enough to make it the next administration’s problem and your reelection campaign promise to fix

Boheed | 14 hours ago

The market trends upward no matter what unless it has literally no choice but to go down temporarily. Everybody is in the market to make money, so there is near-infinite upward pressure on stock prices.

nefrina | 12 hours ago

no other place for money to go, never-mind the constant influx of new money from employer retirement plans and the pressure from this new generation of retail investors, plus a huge % of people passively investing with index funds.

Oatz3 | 14 hours ago

Inflation

Available_Finger_513 | 12 hours ago

Losing money is good for stocks now

Yourdataisunclean | 10 hours ago

"Oh shit! If the market goes down we don't make any money!" - The oligarchy.

Salty-Bid1597 | 12 hours ago

Markets are forward looking. Inflation was as expected and everything else is dependent on a war of choice that The Erratic One could decide to end tomorrow.

Oracle's results probably had a larger effect on the market than any of this because it suggests the AI trade might still have some legs.

NextGen-Panic | 12 hours ago

> why is it going up?

Because they need it to.

Oh, were y'all under the impression the markets AREN'T completely fraudulent?

Dreadsin | 11 hours ago

probably just inequality. while a lot of people have next to no money, lots of people have more money than they even know what to do with and they gotta spend it somewhere

Flashmode2 | 12 hours ago

You can thank the Trump administration for failing to make any type of peace deal and then suddenly increasing strikes on Iran. It’s going up because it’s becoming increasingly insecure and the global supply chain. Thanks to the trumpet administration’s actions.

MalikTheHalfBee | 11 hours ago

You believe insecure supply chains cause a market to go up?

suprachromat | 13 hours ago

Annual core CPI held steady at 2.4% while headline inflation rose 3.4%, both were in line with estimates. This is despite the craziness going on with diesel and gas. Basically energy shock, for now, doesn't seem to be causing inflation to surge out of control. Good news for markets, means the Fed may not have to hike as much.

jackpearson2788 | 11 hours ago

There’s a good chance like with ppi the data was before oil and diesel ripped higher

TrailJunky | 13 hours ago

It's all fake. Thats why.

Gandalftron | 12 hours ago

Markets are going up because earnings, particularly tech earnings, were incredibly strong and guidance was phenomenal.  Until earnings are not strong (probably wont happen for a long time), markets will continue to go up. Long and strong.

FederalExpressMan | 12 hours ago

No one knows what it means, but it's provocative. It gets the people going

how-could-ai | 12 hours ago

It’s fed by algorithmic buys. 401ks, passive investment, etc.

OK_x86 | 12 hours ago

People keep buying the dip. There's an expectation that the markets only temporarily go down and that expectation has become a self fulfilling prophecy.

At this point American markets are seen as an infinite money machine. It's been a very long time since the markets have corrected that significantly and people have short term memories.

Other markets are a bit more if a dice roll. American markets have long had this effect of sucking up all the available liquidity.

regaphysics | 9 hours ago

Oil went back down and interest rates came in as expected…?

Definitely not bad news versus yesterday…

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 8 hours ago

Saudi Arabia just shut down their oil pipeline

regaphysics | 7 hours ago

Sure, but oil prices are down….

You can always find negatives and risks and worries.

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 7 hours ago

To 100 and 104 a barrel

regaphysics | 6 hours ago

It was 104 yesterday and is down to 100 today.

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 6 hours ago

Brent crude is over 104 a barrel

regaphysics | 6 hours ago

Yes, down from 109. Brent and wti both dropped today.

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 6 hours ago

It was107 yesterday, 97 3 days ago , 101 2 days ago and 104 today. I sure hope Saudi Arabia protects their pipeline

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-us-war-live-trump-houthis-red-sea-yemen-oil-b3048368.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=personalized-push

regaphysics | 6 hours ago

Ok….? Went down today. You asked why the market is up today.

How is this confusing to you?

CremedelaSmegma | 4 hours ago

All money everywhere has to be somewhere.  As new money keep being created-where is it going to go?

US tech and….uh….uhm….hmm.

drive_chip_putt | 14 hours ago

The market has to go up to get a good margin on shorting the market.

The money is being made on the yen carry trade right now.  The Yen has increased dramatically after Besset states that the US is providing a backstop.

In short, traders are buying stocks through the Yen carry trade and loaning them out out to manufacturer a short on the market at higher US rates.

Raidaz75 | 14 hours ago

The main metrics the fed looks at almost guarantee they'll continue holding rates

carlos_the_dwarf_ | 14 hours ago

What are those metrics? The vibe feels strongly like they’re going to raise.

Raidaz75 | 14 hours ago

Fed's mandate is the keep a steady job market and maintain inflation at nominal levels yes? Unemployment ticked down to 4.1% so job market in the Fed's eyes is steady. Inflation basically remained the same as last month so it shows signs of sticking. So fed overall is still caught between a rock and a hard place despite potus demanding lower rates

voiceOfHoomanity | 14 hours ago

Warsh said if inflation does not go down, they will be raising rates

(BUT IT'S NOT FORWARD GUIDANCE!! TEEHEE)

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 14 hours ago

Then why is there a 70% chance that they will raise rates?

Raidaz75 | 14 hours ago

Because the market can stay retarded longer than you'll stay solvent for

carlos_the_dwarf_ | 13 hours ago

Yeah, I’d think better job numbers than anticipated would increase the chance of a raise.

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 14 hours ago

ambal87 | 14 hours ago

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-to-90-on-monthly-jump-in-core-prices-131206510.html

HowdyDiarrhea | 13 hours ago

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

85%

082426grateful | 14 hours ago

Even IF there was a stronger case than now for rate hikes, the political climate is just too hostile, violently-so, to even consider it.

There is essentially no situation right now that would cause this Fed to hike rates. That’s correct: there will be no hike, even if it meant the economy would skid off the rails, which is unlikely in an inflationary environment (though very likely in any deflationary environment).

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 14 hours ago

If that's the case the Fed lacks independence

082426grateful | 13 hours ago

Does that even need to be stated anymore? I have zero, even negative if that were possible, confidence that the United States Federal Reaerve has true independence from politicians in power or, notably, the force of Wall Street influence.

thecodeofsilence | 12 hours ago

FedWatch has a 86.9% chance of a rate hike next week. I don't see that being a possibility for all the political reasons that have been discussed in this thread and beyond.

082426grateful | 12 hours ago

It’s entirely plausible that THIS version of the Fed Reserve is taking the stance of allowing something fundamental to our economy (no guess as to what) to BREAK, then proceed to cutting rates.

Again, for posterity- until and unless something does break, creating a reason to cut rates, there will be no rate hike.

thecodeofsilence | 9 hours ago

I don't disagree. The concern I have right now is with the 10- and 30-year doing what they're doing, I don't know if this is going to stay within the control of the Fed, at least not in the consumer space.

Any_Narwhal_4437 | 13 hours ago

I wouldn’t say NO situation where a rate hike occurs, because the Fed board is made up of more people than just Warsh, but agree politics are definitely in play more than they’ve been in the past.

082426grateful | 13 hours ago

It’s a strong word, “no”, speaking of the probability of a rate hike. It’s just how confident I am that supposed Fed “independence” is a mirage.

Can anyone place a “remind Me” thing on this post? I never do it right. I’m 101% confident that no rate hike comes before this administration leaves office in January, 2029.

carlos_the_dwarf_ | 13 hours ago

I set a reminder the other day after arguing with a guy about fed independence. It doesn’t seem to me like Warsh is dancing to the admin’s tune—they’ve been publicly mad at him just in the last week and he’s repeatedly signaled he’s open to raising rates. And besides that, there are 11 other board members (8 of whom agreed with Warsh the last time out on holding).

And holding is already not what the admin wants, they want a cut.

!remindme 60 days

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Raidaz75 | 12 hours ago

Goat JP is also still on the board too

Raidaz75 | 14 hours ago

Literally this

Automatic-Ocelot3957 | 13 hours ago

Inflation means things get more expensive, including stocks.

makemeking706 | 14 hours ago

Why not?

Dazzling-Rub-8550 | 12 hours ago

Shorts? This is a temporary blip before Black Friday 2026?

quite_a_gEnt | 12 hours ago

Money printer go BRRRRRRRR. So now bigger number worth less.

MalikTheHalfBee | 11 hours ago

Stocks are ownership of private companies & private company profits have been through the roof. Headlines only matter when the are affecting those profits & thus far they have not had much negative effect so remain background noise.

People “into politics” are the worst investors.

theerrantpanda99 | 14 hours ago

Every week, millions of Americans have 401k deductions automatically taken out of their paychecks, and invested in the market. That money flow hasn’t slowed down at all. Retirement plans keep parking that money into stocks.

Facebook_Lawyer_Gym | 13 hours ago

The estimation is that is about 1-3% of market volume daily. Essentially trivial.

theerrantpanda99 | 11 hours ago

3% a day isn’t trivial.

Facebook_Lawyer_Gym | 10 hours ago

When 97% of the market going up or down is controlled by others, it is trivial, sorry bro.

yergonnalikeme | 14 hours ago

The stock market climbs despite high gas and oil prices because large tech and AI market leaders are not energy-intensive, benefiting from strong earnings that offset fuel costs.

[OP] One-Emu-1103 | 14 hours ago

They are betting on the probability that Ai is going to be transformative. An interest rate hike will make everything a lot more expensive including that crap.

Lo_jak | 13 hours ago

LMAO the Houthi rebels have taken a port in the red sea, the pipe line that was being used to ease the pressure of the Strait being closed has been blown up and the price of oil goes DOWN just hours after this news..... you couldn't make this up!

I saw that the reason for the oil prices going down was due to a meeting between Iran and the gulf states. Absolutely nothing will come of these meetings and Iran is going to turn the screw as they can see how much pressure they can assert on the global economy.

kirime | 6 hours ago

That's because it wasn't "just hours after this news".

Both the Red Sea coast capture and the oil pipeline destruction are yesterday's news, that's why oil went up yesterday.

BlueFalcon89 | 11 hours ago

I feel like we have this article justifying a jump every Friday following a bearish week. Shorts are closing which drives up share prices. That’s the story.

tr941 | 14 hours ago

It's all a giant charade. The fed is acting tough save face for the bond market. Warsh is going to cut rates by 25 bps like he was given the job to do so.

sharpiemustach | 13 hours ago

Fortunately, Warsh only has one vote on the matter

Mo-shen | 11 hours ago

This is just the usually jump that happens every time there's a big dip.

Also long as the eveyones not dying the market say oh look we can make money off of buying it lower today.

Either way it's a gamble..

Jujubatron | 13 hours ago

Bad news for the Reddit doomers. Please please tell me how this is bad. I desperately need bad news! Someone? We can't let this go. Give me anything!

whatfresh_hellisthis | 13 hours ago

The stock market is not the economy. If you're a working class American, many of whom are not invested in the stock market, this has no bearing whatsoever on them. Even if you are invested in the stock market, the price of groceries and gas is so high that many are pausing their contributions bc they can't afford to live.

So like, if we wanna focus on just one minute thing, then sure stock market up, good. Weigh it against all the other fuck ups and what have you got?

Jujubatron | 12 hours ago

Thank you good samaritarian this is what I needed. Someone to tell me it's all doom and gloom.

Piratarojo | 11 hours ago

So you only want people to say only good things are happening? Lol that's some fucked up living lalaland bullshit

They genuinely answer your question and because it's not a great outlook it makes their point invalid? I don't think so, you instead have to deflect because you have no valid points to argue with, what a fucking loser.

Grow up and learn to express yourself like an adult.

whatfresh_hellisthis | 8 hours ago

You asked for it, you're welcome!

LordoftheScheisse | 13 hours ago

How's that Ruble faring on the global stage? lmao

If you aren't being paid to post bad takes, you're really doing yourself a disservice.

Jujubatron | 12 hours ago

Any opinion opposite to mine is coming from Russian bots. I choose to believe that. Although it doesn't work in my favor in real life.

LordoftheScheisse | 12 hours ago

Go post on r-doomercirclejerk more.

Jujubatron | 12 hours ago

Yeah I think your post history belongs there. Good idea.

LordoftheScheisse | 12 hours ago

lmao good one! Why don't you be a doomer about how Žan Videnov is a big, scary SOCIALIST some more?

"It's only being a doomer when someone else does it!" - you, Bulgaria's fattest vagina

Jujubatron | 11 hours ago

There's no need to be so emotional.

LordoftheScheisse | 11 hours ago

Jujubatron | 9 hours ago

My man is posting doomerism material for 9 yrs it's actually crazy lol

LordoftheScheisse | 9 hours ago

That's almost as long as you've inconsolably cried about doomers LMAO

You should be proud of your consistently bad takes. But seriously if you can't recognize doomercirclejsrk as a blatant attempt to minimize fascist power taking his them you're a goddamn idiot. Lol. Again, I hope you're getting paid, Boris.

dust4ngel | 7 hours ago

> Bad news for the Reddit doomers. I desperately need bad news!

agree that there are unserious people on reddit.