I think it would be less distracting if they updated at a reasonable rate. If the pointer events were serialized using a small binary format, the update rate could be raised dramatically with minimal bandwidth increase over the current implementation.
I really think the main factor in determining if prediction markets are valuable is their predictions from outside election day. Once the “blue tsunami” was “expected” most of the markets shot overwhelmingly in one direction as the night wrapped up. You need to have a boundary for comparison that isn’t influenced by election night. Starting at 5AM is a decent cut point but I would argue the final poll date is the best comparison.
Love or hate PolyMarket, it should be on this list too.
what are people suggesting is the "right" way for prediction markets to indicate that they are accurate? what should prediction market prices be if they are predicting accurately?
if you can predict accurately, you will win all your plays. If who you are predicting is the favorite, and the favorite wins, you will earn less money than if you can predict the upsets. That's what the markets do, you do the predicting, the market rewards you.
We should permanently rename "prediction markets" to "betting markets".
People linked to them came up with the "prediction" nonsense to sound modern and technological as a way to dissociate themselves from the life/family destroying gambling of old.
But they are gambling, pure and simple, with no value to society.
Probably combination of "information laundering" and "betting market".
If you are making money (i.e. beating the "house") you are by definition laundering information, and profiting off of deniability. Everyone who isn't doing this is the sucker losing money on a betting market.
The funny thing is these companies want to be considered information laundries, because that's what serves the real customer (politicians, celebrities, etc). The people "betting" (i.e. losing) are the product.
>If you are making money (i.e. beating the "house") you are by definition laundering information, and profiting off of deniability. Everyone who isn't doing this is the sucker losing money on a betting market.
???
There's no allowance for skill? Even in financial markets, there's no reason to believe why people who continually beat the market must be insider trading. That's not the same as saying that people should be day trading, but that doesn't mean the reverse is true.
Number of errors with the polls: 30
Number of errors with Kalshi: 25
Error reduction: 16%
Quoting Scott Alexander [1]
> Either over a long time scale, a prediction market will always be at least as good as the best expert, authoritative organization, or other information source. Or you can get rich quick.
shizcakes | 11 hours ago
1e1a | 10 hours ago
[OP] nuwandavek | 36 minutes ago
devin | 11 hours ago
jmathai | 10 hours ago
[OP] nuwandavek | 35 minutes ago
woggy | 10 hours ago
closetkantian | 10 hours ago
Grimburger | 10 hours ago
Shank | 10 hours ago
Love or hate PolyMarket, it should be on this list too.
arionmiles | 10 hours ago
Who are these people?
0gs | 3 hours ago
fsckboy | 10 hours ago
if you can predict accurately, you will win all your plays. If who you are predicting is the favorite, and the favorite wins, you will earn less money than if you can predict the upsets. That's what the markets do, you do the predicting, the market rewards you.
unclebucknasty | 9 hours ago
I'm actually not a fan of prediction markets for reasons.
But, them being "a wash" with fancy-pants models and expensive, not super-efficient polling processes is actually pretty remarkable.
glimshe | 8 hours ago
People linked to them came up with the "prediction" nonsense to sound modern and technological as a way to dissociate themselves from the life/family destroying gambling of old.
But they are gambling, pure and simple, with no value to society.
avaer | 7 hours ago
If you are making money (i.e. beating the "house") you are by definition laundering information, and profiting off of deniability. Everyone who isn't doing this is the sucker losing money on a betting market.
The funny thing is these companies want to be considered information laundries, because that's what serves the real customer (politicians, celebrities, etc). The people "betting" (i.e. losing) are the product.
gruez | 6 hours ago
???
There's no allowance for skill? Even in financial markets, there's no reason to believe why people who continually beat the market must be insider trading. That's not the same as saying that people should be day trading, but that doesn't mean the reverse is true.
conorcleary | 2 hours ago
kkoncevicius | 7 hours ago
> Either over a long time scale, a prediction market will always be at least as good as the best expert, authoritative organization, or other information source. Or you can get rich quick.
[1]: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq
netsharc | 5 hours ago