tbh at this point, how can I get in on this? Where do I throw my money? Can I track Trump's trades? Because damn if this is gonna keep happening we should at least get something out of it.
People don’t realize that TACOing is not as easy as it sounds. They think Trump just reverses course and everything magically resets. But Iran isn’t tariffs. With tariffs, Trump has full control over his chaos machine. Here, reality keeps interrupting the rebrand.
So first he TACOs on the rhetoric. But that doesn’t fix the situation and creates other problems. Then he TACOs on the TACO to undo the first TACO. But now we’re back to square one, except somehow with more press conferences.
So then he TACOs on the second TACO, which was originally meant to repair the first TACO that was supposed to fix the mess created before the original TACO, ... and so forth. You get the idea!
The main issue is that trump doesn't have strategic thinking. He has impulsive thinking that he thinks might look good on TV, which won't solve problems, just changes their forms.
If anyone that is interested and believes this story on its face , i have a bridge in a Manhattan borough i am looking to off load ........... please inquire within ............. like new , little maintenance needed , only serious offers please !!
It's really amazing how reactionary the market is when the ground truth hasn't changed in over a month. It's one thing to believe Trump's lies but what is this even based on? Its's not clear where these reports came from.
Sure, but this has been the case all along so why hasn't it led to any changes? What's different today that wasn't true 6 weeks ago?
To be clear, I'm agreeing with you the market thinks no shortage will happen, but I don't agree it's because of anything Trump says or does. I think their models do not allow for the possibility of an actual shortage so they assume there won't be one. If that's the case, the price will strangely go down the closer we get to shortage bc we will be getting closer to the end of the event that MUST result in more oil, even though the actual facts on the ground have not changed an iota.
6 weeks of US demonstrating they do not have the desire to go back to war.
More oil reaching markets in other ways, a few more ships making it out of gulf.
Some demand reductions.
I mean I don't even disagree with you here... we might still be sleepwalking off the cliff... if physical inventory starts to become a problem.
BUT.... 20mbpd were coming thru SoH pre-war. World was in an oversupply condition. Since then we've:
pushed more saudi oil out thru red sea
Allowed more russian oil onto market
Allowed more Venezuelan Oil onto market
Released from strategic reserves
Exported more US crude (likely happened everywhere with oil exports, everyone else can push a bit out more when price is high)
other stuff I am not remembering.
So the drawdown from inventories isn't 20mbpd... it is some number lower.
but there's still lots of risk. Even just the tanker fleet is probably insufficient to move all the oil if time on water is extended from what the world is normalized around.
We actually know that it is more than "some number". It's between 8 and 12 mpbd with an aggregate hole of approximately a billion barrels now which has been filled with strategic reserves. But many countries reserves are drawing on empty now, particularly for distilled product.
I think it's a lot more stupid than that. I think the models they are using to auto trade simply are being manipulated because they are now integrating LLM analyses of news sources, and also build on each other. It's GIGO, and because as you note these models were never meant to handle black swan events they are going to flip out once reality hits them which seems inevitable now.
It's bigger than that, 55% of exportable oil in the world passed through Hormuz before the war. Much of the world's oil is produced and consumed domestically, so the 13% supply shortage is including that in the denominator.
But if your a country that doesn't produce domestically, you probably bought from Hormuz.
Its because accepting reality means the economy explodes and they all lose a fuck ton of money. They will keep this game of musical chairs going as long as they can. Eventually some facet of reality (oil availability, bonds, etc.) will come to force them to accept reality, but who knows when that will happen.
I think it partially comes from the fact that the market wants to do well. The market would do amazing if it weren't for Trump. Between his gross incompetence as a person and him purposely playing roller coaster with the market to make a bajillion dollars for himself the market and economy would thrive. Ya markets knee jerk but he's so unpredictable and they want to keep growing they're rebounding hard on any hope he gives them and then crash because they don't want to lose more.
AI driven investing scraping the headlines that was back tested against a time when the news media cared more about credibility and societal responsibility than clicks… or sophisticated enough to bet that the punters will keep investing as long as the markets keep going up
The market had been reacting to Iran blinking and revealing that it wants to negotiate, rather than refuse negotiations and just keep the Strait closed. Iran agreed to an ceasefire on April 8th and the market has been rising since then. And the public spat between the IRGC and the civilian government of Iran about whether the ceasefire was happening or whether the Strait was open revealed they were internally divided. They are now broadcasting a draft agreement on state media, so they are prepping their own population for this agreement.
The market saw that Iran wasn't as committed to the war as IRGC spokesmen made it sound, and the market reacted.
It probably also helped that other powerful modem militaries started moving military assets into the region and stated that they intended to uphold international law, which means opposing Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
>And the public spat between the IRGC and the civilian government of Iran about whether the ceasefire was happening or whether the Strait was open revealed they were internally divided. They are now broadcasting a draft agreement on state media, so they are prepping their own population for this agreement.
Source on any of this? Specifically changes to state media messaging?
If you go through the day by day summaries for April, they detail the power struggle and contradictory messaging between the Foreign Minister and IRGC.
A month ago Iranian state media was reporting that it would not participate in new peace talks. It wasn't true, but it made the regime sound confident. It's just a mouthpiece for the regime, and they cut off internet access. The stories they run are for domestic consumption.
I have one in Brooklyn that is definitely a much better deal than your bridge. If anyone’s looking to buy a bridge, hit me up instead. This guy is a scammer
I think people are mad that the administration keeps making fake claims like this so Trump can manipulate the stock market, like the other 39 times a deal has been teased. Hope this helps!
I'm mad because paper manipulation will blow up and this will be worse than it needed to be. A functioning market recognizes that supply cannot be back to normal within 30-90 days and adjusts prices to avoid running out of product. Basic supply and demand. If supply goes down, prices go up until a new equilibrium is established.
Instead, jawboning and SPR releases are surpressing everything with the fiction that "normal" is possible by end of 2026. The price of physical delivery jumped at the start of the conflict - which is rational if supplies are dwindling. But refineries staring at the futures curve and headlines slowed their purchases and SPR provided a buffer that disappears in July. Stocks go down gradually with everyone banking on better prices 3 months from now when they'll be running out. War premium basically vanished even though nothing changed in terms of supply projections.
This all works out if there is enough supply to cover everyone as demand kicks up seasonally and stocks continue to dwindle. And there definitely won't be, which everyone watching the physical markets and reality of the supply chain is screaming right now. There's the logistics of the strait and shipping issues...there's also the fact that every country on earth caught flat footed by this now has reason to build up its own reserves ASAP. Australia comes to mind.
The best case scenario is oil stays elevated forever. That's the realistic goal with these spr releases and jawboning: permanent moderate elevation without spikes.
The worst case is supplies hit operational minimums and oil goes parabolic when a bidding war starts instead of gradually increasing over time the way it should have. Poor countries get obliterated. Rich ones pay out the ass.
Assuming you are talking about the oil markets I don't think you are right. The market was disconnected before this hormuz incident. We were WAY over supplied. Far more than what was being reported by the IEA.
The fact of the matter is EVs are making a dent especially in China, India, and EU.
Oil demand growth has been flat for YEARS while production from all countries continues to grow.
This hormuz closure is not stopping oil production. It's still there. OPEC has shut in 14m bbls/day and is ready to open the taps while governments have been flooding their reserves.
The markets are a prediction of the future. If hormuz open AND Saudi finishes that pipeline the market is going to be instantly flooded.
Add to that this price hike has created and even worse situation for demand growth sending it negative on the year.
It's going to take a minute to get things flowing again, but the world will be awash in oil and this is probably perpetually as more and more realize EV is 10x better tech than ICE engines and gasoline is 40-50% of oils usage.
Aside from that the bombed out refineries can't take a bunch of oil until they are back online.
That means oil will be filling storage, demand growth will continue to wane because product will be more expensive for longer thanks to fewer refineries.
Truth is there is SERIOUS downside risk to oil. Like insane downside risk.
Assuming THAT specific market is what you are talking about??
Most of what you are saying is correct…long term (next 5 years). Short term the market was not over producing 20 million barrels per day. If it was, then why was the US strategic reserve not full? Shouldn’t the US have been filling up the reserves at historically cheap prices since there was this huge glut of excess production? Why are we pulling historic levels of oil out of reserves (9 mil barrels last week)? Why are we having global shortages of jet fuel if there is all this excess supply?
So I would totally buy that 5 years from now oil is below $70. The problem is we are here today and the world is not set up for the shock of an instantaneous drop of 10 to 20 million barrels per day.
No one said it was 20m bbls over supplied. We were 3 million bbls over which is more than it was when the 2015 oil bust hit. We are only 6m bbl under supplied right now even with OPECs 14m sidelined.
Trump doesn't make good decisions that's why we have not been filling the SPR while oil was in the 60s.
Commercial stocks are still well supplied. We've had draw downs but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.
Assuming Hormuz comes back open it won't take long for prices to plummet. Traders are wary of betting against that.
I’m skeptical that these redditors who think they’re much smarter than the market would do better day trading than simply holding index funds. In my opinion everything is obvious in hindsight and people over estimate their intuition.
You can make the argument that this applies to investors on wall street as well. If you look at actively managed funds, factoring in fees, their outperformance/underperformance relative to index funds isn't significantly different from 0%.
Agree and those are professionals who spend their entire workdays trying to outsmart the market. It’s why I think it’s funny that half of this subreddit think they have it all figured out. If they do they should be rich.
I agree Trump is corrupt but that’s a separate point from their claim. If the market is acting irrationally and over reacting to noise/messaging it should be easy to make money.
How is it not easy? the market literally has been parabolic. Anyone who has been steadily pouring money into the market over the last few years has been making a killing.
Going long equities doesn’t rely on believing you’re smarter than the market. If you really are smarter than the market there’s even more money to be made in day trading. Of course most people aren’t as good at predictions as they think they are so they typically do worse than passive investors.
It isn’t easy for anyone to make money in the short term, but go look at Trump’s stock trades for Q1 next to his public comments about companies/events tied to those companies. He and his cronies are doing continuous insider trading. Though if you’re the one making the markets move it is something worse and more insidious than insider trading that I’m not sure we have a proper term yet. Don’t try to minimize the incredible grift/corruption/harm he is doing to the markets and nation on a daily and hourly basis.
Half the comments in the post are saying how predicable this all is and how dumb the market is for not realizing that. Some posts are even providing day by day forcasts of what will happen. If you are smarter than the market you should cash in. I think Trump is as unpredicable as he is corrupt, I don't think I know what next Monday holds but if you, as many here, are confident it will involve the war re-escalating you should invest accordingly.
You weren't responding to a comment that claimed they could accurately time the market. They just said Trump's behavior is predictable because it's repeated consistently and the market is irrational.
Just because the market is irrational doesn't mean anyone can accurately time to bubble bursting.
The oil embargo of 1973 was in effect for about 6 months and it took months for the markets to completely feel the effects.
If you can predict Trump’s actions better than the market you could definitely profit from this conflict. That is so obvious it shouldn’t have to be stated. There’s plenty of volatility to take advantage of.
Predicting what is likely to happen is not the same as timing the market. If you were just holding stocks during this time you'd be up, no timing required. Although I am still expecting a significant correction within a year due to at the very least the oil crisis.
Whether there is "a deal" or not* doesn't matter, the damage is done, its a matter of when it manifest in prices not whether some meaningless "deal" is made.
Because a deal is impossible. The US has no credibility to hold to anything, so its just a matter of what empty statement they can cajole out of Tehran to spin this as anything less than an abject failure, the underling fundamental conditions will remain largely the same, seeing as most of the hostility has winded down, the authorization has run out, the political will for escalation beyond empty threats on twitter is near zero. The only unexpected outcome would be the worse case.
I do lol Knowing reality but also knowing the market is disconnected from reality is profitable, now and in the future when things reverse. Being caught up in the short term news cycle about meaningless "deals" and only being right by happenstance because the market is equality disconnected from reality only makes you lucky for now.
I'm sorry how does anyone buy this anymore? I swear every week it's the same dance, there are talks that are "promising", then trump says "I don't know if I like this" and kills a bunch of civilians, rinse and repeat. Is it just wishful delusion on wall streets part?
I swear it's the culmination of being a "religious society." That whole protestant work ethic fucking with the minds of our less scrupulous citizens. You only rise to a position of power because you worked hard. You worked hard so God bestowed upon you plenty. Have faith in those that God have given plenty for they obviously did something to deserve it.
"Iran is 115% destroyed and Hormuz is no issue...."
Every article on this subject that doesn't have a "Trump and Iran have both repeatedly claimed then unclaimed having a deal for the last 3 months" disclaimer at the bottom is doing a disservice to journalism.
"Tehran had obtained a draft of an initial, unofficial framework for a memorandum of understanding with the United States on ending their conflict."
"Iran would restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, while the United States would withdraw military forces from Iran's vicinity and lift a naval blockade."
"...the framework, which excludes military vessels and envisages Iran managing ship traffic through the strait in cooperation with Oman, was not yet finalised and that Tehran would take no steps without "tangible verification".
"It added that if a final agreement was reached within 60 days, it could be approved as a binding U.N. Security Council resolution."
Who believes anything coming out of this administration? Some unknown source makes bets on oil and Trump 15 minutes later makes an announcement that makes that bet worth millions of dollars.
Most corrupt administration American history and history will not look kindly on how we allowed this to happen.
Why does it feel like oil prices are running on hopium? They were literally shooting at each other yesterday, and doubling down on the things they will never negotiate.
At some point the hope and fear run into reality. You can't run a refinery on hope. If the oil literally isn't available it becomes a lot harder to manipulate the market with tweets.
Is it TACO Tuesday already? Crazy how much the price fluctuates on the same regurgitated headlines every week with no difference in results. It's either "We're close to a deal, everything's opening up" or "they refuse to negotiate, we're bombing them back to the stone age", and while that has become such a predictable pattern, i'm still baffled how the market still buys into this to the point of being influenced by the same cheap talk.
Satellite imagery shows that ships are indeed getting through The Strait. This all began last week. Reports are saying that approximately 10% of ships are, once again, loading up on oil.
And what is Caligula gonna do about that? Do we really think he‘s gonna bomb a tanker from China as they load up on oil?
And this is why oil is down, because even a small amount of ships getting through The Strait, is better than no ships at all.
Restore traffic in one month. Even if they could, the flow of oil and gas has been decimated. It will take years for the amounts to total what was flowing before this idiot trump decided to do what every other POTUS wasn't stupid enough to do.
> However, Iran will manage ship traffic through Hormuz in cooperation with Oman, state television said. U.S. military forces would withdraw from the vicinity of Iran and lift the naval blockade, the reports said.
This is absolutely fucking horrible. In what was once a free water way that wasn't managed by any regional actor, it will no be managed by two powers, one of which has shown the ability to shut it down with ease. This is a total win for the Iranians and a sign that Trump just wants this over so it doesn't further hurt the Republicans in the midterms. Not that it will matter, it'll take months for things to get back to the way they were and the price shock will last quite some time.
Yes, it’s terrible that Obama made all this happen when he bombed Iran last year. And Biden launched the Iraq invasion in 2018 which made Saddam blow up the twin towers, so now Bin Laden is closing the Suez Strait and something something Jimmy Carter.
I mean, yea if they make a deal, one month is actually longer than I'd expect. Why keep it closed for a month after a deal? And the hard part is the deal itself since they want money and to keep at least as much of their nuclear program as the Obama deal, both of which were derided by Trump/GOP for political reasons, so they can't agree because then they lost U.S. lives and spent billions on this war just to ultimately give Iran more money and the same or better program than they had before Trump.
That's what stops the detente here and this is not relevant news to that, but a suggestion that opening will take LONGER than expectations would be otherwise.
Oh, so it's market manipulation, and now every country involved and every media source is also in on it? Nobody is even trying to be an actual journalist anymore and call out the absolute hypocrisy for what it is. They're just trying to pump the market.
But what really gets me is that this is state subsidized market manipulation. The troops, the weapons, the equipment, all of the resources to transport and feed our manpower are paid for by us so Trump and company can continually manipulate the markets.
I wonder if companies like airlines - should buy oil futures? Or buy all the oil they can get at $89. Sure algorithms may move commodities prices of oil based on headline news. But actual companies need oil delivered (long term contracts,etc). Seems like the prudent thing to do, as geopolitics news can spike the price of oil.
Edit - I see a lot of comments about market manipulation (White House/Trump,etc). I wonder how the market moves this drastically. If an unreliable narrator says there will be peace, reopening, ceasefire and keeps in reneging. Sure perhaps the first few times they can time the market. But later now (like with this news report) - companies that actually need oil deliveries can get it for cheaper during the down spikes.
Oil futures are now down to $77. They dipped that low previously at the beginning of May before shooting right back up to over $100. Let's hope the prices can finally stay down and an actual agreement happens.
Edit: You can downvote me all you want, but it doesn't change facts. CLW00
For West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded on the NYMEX, the prompt month is currently the July 2026 contract, sitting around \(\$90\text{--}\$91\) per barrel
There won’t be an agreement. The only agreement Iran would agree to at this point is one that makes them better off. That will make it look like the USA lost. They promised at the beginning the war would be over in 4 weeks. They’ve lost control and are in an escalation trap.
Not necessarily. Trump doesn’t have to get a better deal than Obama did. He just has to get some sort of deal, and he’ll announce that it is better than the Obama deal, most of his minions will believe him, then we’ll move on to the next catastrophe.
And Israel will do everything in their power to tank any deal. I would agree with you if Israel wasn’t factor in this but they absolutely do not want any regional power that can challenge them.
Iran won’t walk away without control of the straight. If they give it up there’s no guarantee they could control it again. They’ve also asked for reparations to the tune of 270 billion. Remember how conservatives flipped out because Obama unfroze 1.7 billion?
Doing both or either will look like a loss except to die hard MAGA. It would politically be over for Trump. First clear loss for America since Vietnam. So they are stuck in an escalation trap. We will lose eventually but the President isn’t ready for that.
Iran is comfortable. They’re getting millions every day. They see their losses as martyrdom. They’re not stopping.
The algorithms are owned and trained by someone. They are not some forgone organic conclusion. Hopefully international trading partners can help curb lack of US regulation
supercyberlurker | 5 hours ago
Today (Wednesday) is Tentative Talks. Thursday is Positive Talks. Friday is Productive Talks.
Then on Monday bombing and all that begin again, again.
Previous_Coat8376 | 5 hours ago
Pump and dump
supercyberlurker | 5 hours ago
MAGA Market Manipulation Mondays
EkbatDeSabat | an hour ago
tbh at this point, how can I get in on this? Where do I throw my money? Can I track Trump's trades? Because damn if this is gonna keep happening we should at least get something out of it.
BobbyBucherBabineaux | an hour ago
Yes you can. He just disclosed 3711 trades he has made in a late filling to the SEC. Check out quiver quant.
EkbatDeSabat | an hour ago
Hmm I have a few grand in play money on the market I can throw into something over there and see how it rolls. Thanks!
P2029 | 4 hours ago
Bro it's Market Manipulation Friday, Casual Saturday, Existential Dread Sunday, then Pump 'n Dump Monday
jeff5551 | 4 hours ago
No but on Friday they're gonna be too busy playing the new POE2 patch to keep the strait closed so they'll finally open it back up, art of the deal.
siali | an hour ago
People don’t realize that TACOing is not as easy as it sounds. They think Trump just reverses course and everything magically resets. But Iran isn’t tariffs. With tariffs, Trump has full control over his chaos machine. Here, reality keeps interrupting the rebrand.
So first he TACOs on the rhetoric. But that doesn’t fix the situation and creates other problems. Then he TACOs on the TACO to undo the first TACO. But now we’re back to square one, except somehow with more press conferences.
So then he TACOs on the second TACO, which was originally meant to repair the first TACO that was supposed to fix the mess created before the original TACO, ... and so forth. You get the idea!
The main issue is that trump doesn't have strategic thinking. He has impulsive thinking that he thinks might look good on TV, which won't solve problems, just changes their forms.
myrichphitzwell | 4 hours ago
Who doesn't love a goodish rollercoaster!!!!???
highso | 2 hours ago
Six Day Market Manipulation
[OP] TACO_Orange_3098 | 5 hours ago
If anyone that is interested and believes this story on its face , i have a bridge in a Manhattan borough i am looking to off load ........... please inquire within ............. like new , little maintenance needed , only serious offers please !!
handsoapdispenser | 5 hours ago
It's really amazing how reactionary the market is when the ground truth hasn't changed in over a month. It's one thing to believe Trump's lies but what is this even based on? Its's not clear where these reports came from.
[OP] TACO_Orange_3098 | 5 hours ago
it is based on what positions Barron and his other rat holes get on and how much :D
it is all about market manipulation and money money money ............ only thing they are transparent about
Governor_Abbot | 5 hours ago
Don’t forget the Epstein Billionaires. Where they bet their money is where it goes.
[OP] TACO_Orange_3098 | 5 hours ago
oh yeah , those pillars of society :/
Cool-Signature-dude | 5 hours ago
There is a 10-13% shortage in global supply until at least the end of 2027.
Just more market manipulation. They need to get their money before the end of July when the reserves they released are used up.
o08 | 4 hours ago
All Iran needs to do is wait till November. I doubt that a country like that would ever agree to a time table where midterms are unaffected.
rayfound | 2 hours ago
I think as much as anything this is the structure of the market right now:
The question is: does supply recover before reserves are depleted?
Market thinks 'yes', more or less.
And the thing is, the world is seeing Trump doesn't care about Iran. He has no geopolitical goals there that he values more than "Good vibes" at home.
He just wants something he can sell as a "Win" and for the oil prices to come down.
jimmiejames | an hour ago
Sure, but this has been the case all along so why hasn't it led to any changes? What's different today that wasn't true 6 weeks ago?
To be clear, I'm agreeing with you the market thinks no shortage will happen, but I don't agree it's because of anything Trump says or does. I think their models do not allow for the possibility of an actual shortage so they assume there won't be one. If that's the case, the price will strangely go down the closer we get to shortage bc we will be getting closer to the end of the event that MUST result in more oil, even though the actual facts on the ground have not changed an iota.
rayfound | 41 minutes ago
What has happened in 6 weeks is:
6 weeks of US demonstrating they do not have the desire to go back to war.
More oil reaching markets in other ways, a few more ships making it out of gulf.
Some demand reductions.
I mean I don't even disagree with you here... we might still be sleepwalking off the cliff... if physical inventory starts to become a problem.
BUT.... 20mbpd were coming thru SoH pre-war. World was in an oversupply condition. Since then we've:
pushed more saudi oil out thru red sea
Allowed more russian oil onto market
Allowed more Venezuelan Oil onto market
Released from strategic reserves
Exported more US crude (likely happened everywhere with oil exports, everyone else can push a bit out more when price is high)
other stuff I am not remembering.
So the drawdown from inventories isn't 20mbpd... it is some number lower.
but there's still lots of risk. Even just the tanker fleet is probably insufficient to move all the oil if time on water is extended from what the world is normalized around.
awildstoryteller | 6 minutes ago
We actually know that it is more than "some number". It's between 8 and 12 mpbd with an aggregate hole of approximately a billion barrels now which has been filled with strategic reserves. But many countries reserves are drawing on empty now, particularly for distilled product.
Demand destruction is the next step.
awildstoryteller | 7 minutes ago
I think it's a lot more stupid than that. I think the models they are using to auto trade simply are being manipulated because they are now integrating LLM analyses of news sources, and also build on each other. It's GIGO, and because as you note these models were never meant to handle black swan events they are going to flip out once reality hits them which seems inevitable now.
Yvaelle | an hour ago
It's bigger than that, 55% of exportable oil in the world passed through Hormuz before the war. Much of the world's oil is produced and consumed domestically, so the 13% supply shortage is including that in the denominator.
But if your a country that doesn't produce domestically, you probably bought from Hormuz.
Cybertronian10 | 2 hours ago
Its because accepting reality means the economy explodes and they all lose a fuck ton of money. They will keep this game of musical chairs going as long as they can. Eventually some facet of reality (oil availability, bonds, etc.) will come to force them to accept reality, but who knows when that will happen.
God I hope it happens this summer.
WorkReddit1191 | 4 hours ago
I think it partially comes from the fact that the market wants to do well. The market would do amazing if it weren't for Trump. Between his gross incompetence as a person and him purposely playing roller coaster with the market to make a bajillion dollars for himself the market and economy would thrive. Ya markets knee jerk but he's so unpredictable and they want to keep growing they're rebounding hard on any hope he gives them and then crash because they don't want to lose more.
invisible___hand | 5 hours ago
AI driven investing scraping the headlines that was back tested against a time when the news media cared more about credibility and societal responsibility than clicks… or sophisticated enough to bet that the punters will keep investing as long as the markets keep going up
getwhirleddotcom | 4 hours ago
Honestly, Iran would be absolutely stupid not to be getting in on the market manipulation themselves.
FantasticlyWarmLogs | 4 hours ago
I mean, part of the new status quo is they get paid for every ship passing through the straight. That's a powerful motivator too.
Longjumping_Share444 | 4 hours ago
They desperately WANT to believe this, so they will until it's proven to be otherwise.
oscarnyc | 4 hours ago
Click. It is based on reports from Iran state media.
Jest_out_for_a_Rip | 3 hours ago
The market had been reacting to Iran blinking and revealing that it wants to negotiate, rather than refuse negotiations and just keep the Strait closed. Iran agreed to an ceasefire on April 8th and the market has been rising since then. And the public spat between the IRGC and the civilian government of Iran about whether the ceasefire was happening or whether the Strait was open revealed they were internally divided. They are now broadcasting a draft agreement on state media, so they are prepping their own population for this agreement.
The market saw that Iran wasn't as committed to the war as IRGC spokesmen made it sound, and the market reacted.
It probably also helped that other powerful modem militaries started moving military assets into the region and stated that they intended to uphold international law, which means opposing Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
jimmiejames | an hour ago
>And the public spat between the IRGC and the civilian government of Iran about whether the ceasefire was happening or whether the Strait was open revealed they were internally divided. They are now broadcasting a draft agreement on state media, so they are prepping their own population for this agreement.
Source on any of this? Specifically changes to state media messaging?
Jest_out_for_a_Rip | 41 minutes ago
If you go through the day by day summaries for April, they detail the power struggle and contradictory messaging between the Foreign Minister and IRGC.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-april-17-2026/
A month ago Iranian state media was reporting that it would not participate in new peace talks. It wasn't true, but it made the regime sound confident. It's just a mouthpiece for the regime, and they cut off internet access. The stories they run are for domestic consumption.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/19/iran-says-talks-continue-while-it-retains-control-of-strait-of-hormuz-.html
MarsTellus13 | 5 hours ago
They were laying more lines like 3 days ago but full reopening within 30 days. Definitely. Safe bet. Plz send pics of the bridge.
Stonk_Newboobie | 4 hours ago
"Laying more lines." Welp, with everything going on, might as well go full Scarface.
MarsTellus13 | 4 hours ago
It's a funny typo so I'ma leave it.
TheWokenessInjector | 3 hours ago
Don Jr is working for the IRGC?
Jaxcat_21 | 4 hours ago
😂
Akiraooo | 4 hours ago
To expand on this. Who is the USA talking with to make such agreement?
Awhile back. The USA had to meet in Pakistan. Pakistan had to use some type of note system to get someone to talk with.
Note systems take awhile to communicate through...
[OP] TACO_Orange_3098 | 4 hours ago
i think the mirror in the oval :D
so much smoke and mirrors, so many times crying wolf , it is just noise anymore from a mouthpiece and bad hair piece
starlulz | 4 hours ago
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
tribbans95 | 4 hours ago
I have one in Brooklyn that is definitely a much better deal than your bridge. If anyone’s looking to buy a bridge, hit me up instead. This guy is a scammer
Clear-Role6880 | 5 hours ago
Why are you people mad that price of oil is down while Iran is still under blockade?
This fact is good for literally the entire world except IRGC Russia China NK
DIYsurgery | 5 hours ago
Maybe folks are just mad at the manipulation that is happening, and at the realization that the markets are broken and detached from reality 🤷♂️
Lemp_Triscuit11 | 4 hours ago
I think people are mad that the administration keeps making fake claims like this so Trump can manipulate the stock market, like the other 39 times a deal has been teased. Hope this helps!
SlowkayCoomer | 5 hours ago
Why are you a hawk for the most obviously losing war the United States has ever been in?
You're supposed to at least hide your comments you dunce.
MarsTellus13 | 4 hours ago
I'm mad because paper manipulation will blow up and this will be worse than it needed to be. A functioning market recognizes that supply cannot be back to normal within 30-90 days and adjusts prices to avoid running out of product. Basic supply and demand. If supply goes down, prices go up until a new equilibrium is established.
Instead, jawboning and SPR releases are surpressing everything with the fiction that "normal" is possible by end of 2026. The price of physical delivery jumped at the start of the conflict - which is rational if supplies are dwindling. But refineries staring at the futures curve and headlines slowed their purchases and SPR provided a buffer that disappears in July. Stocks go down gradually with everyone banking on better prices 3 months from now when they'll be running out. War premium basically vanished even though nothing changed in terms of supply projections.
This all works out if there is enough supply to cover everyone as demand kicks up seasonally and stocks continue to dwindle. And there definitely won't be, which everyone watching the physical markets and reality of the supply chain is screaming right now. There's the logistics of the strait and shipping issues...there's also the fact that every country on earth caught flat footed by this now has reason to build up its own reserves ASAP. Australia comes to mind.
The best case scenario is oil stays elevated forever. That's the realistic goal with these spr releases and jawboning: permanent moderate elevation without spikes.
The worst case is supplies hit operational minimums and oil goes parabolic when a bidding war starts instead of gradually increasing over time the way it should have. Poor countries get obliterated. Rich ones pay out the ass.
Illustrious-Lime-878 | 5 hours ago
In some ways if the price is going to high long term its better to get there faster. Oh course, we don't know, hence the market price.
Petrichordates | 4 hours ago
It's not real and thus won't hold.
Though lower oil prices arent better for the world long term.
microdosingrn | 5 hours ago
You don't need bridge buyers, if you're so confident go place your bet on poly market.
[OP] TACO_Orange_3098 | 4 hours ago
lol !!! poly market ..............
AmericaVotedTrump | 5 hours ago
The market is completely disconnected from reality. There is no due diligence, no rationalizing, just pure pump and dumps over and over again.
GuelphEastEndGhetto | 5 hours ago
80% bots.
bdiddy_ | 3 hours ago
Assuming you are talking about the oil markets I don't think you are right. The market was disconnected before this hormuz incident. We were WAY over supplied. Far more than what was being reported by the IEA.
The fact of the matter is EVs are making a dent especially in China, India, and EU.
Oil demand growth has been flat for YEARS while production from all countries continues to grow.
This hormuz closure is not stopping oil production. It's still there. OPEC has shut in 14m bbls/day and is ready to open the taps while governments have been flooding their reserves.
The markets are a prediction of the future. If hormuz open AND Saudi finishes that pipeline the market is going to be instantly flooded.
Add to that this price hike has created and even worse situation for demand growth sending it negative on the year.
It's going to take a minute to get things flowing again, but the world will be awash in oil and this is probably perpetually as more and more realize EV is 10x better tech than ICE engines and gasoline is 40-50% of oils usage.
Aside from that the bombed out refineries can't take a bunch of oil until they are back online.
That means oil will be filling storage, demand growth will continue to wane because product will be more expensive for longer thanks to fewer refineries.
Truth is there is SERIOUS downside risk to oil. Like insane downside risk.
Assuming THAT specific market is what you are talking about??
Vralo84 | 2 hours ago
Most of what you are saying is correct…long term (next 5 years). Short term the market was not over producing 20 million barrels per day. If it was, then why was the US strategic reserve not full? Shouldn’t the US have been filling up the reserves at historically cheap prices since there was this huge glut of excess production? Why are we pulling historic levels of oil out of reserves (9 mil barrels last week)? Why are we having global shortages of jet fuel if there is all this excess supply?
So I would totally buy that 5 years from now oil is below $70. The problem is we are here today and the world is not set up for the shock of an instantaneous drop of 10 to 20 million barrels per day.
bdiddy_ | 22 minutes ago
No one said it was 20m bbls over supplied. We were 3 million bbls over which is more than it was when the 2015 oil bust hit. We are only 6m bbl under supplied right now even with OPECs 14m sidelined.
Trump doesn't make good decisions that's why we have not been filling the SPR while oil was in the 60s.
Commercial stocks are still well supplied. We've had draw downs but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.
Assuming Hormuz comes back open it won't take long for prices to plummet. Traders are wary of betting against that.
SirGlass | 4 hours ago
Its driven by algos. The algos have been trained to trade bases on the news
However they have not been trained to realize Trump is a liar and will say anything to keep the price of oil down.
mccoyn | 4 hours ago
Its that phrase "buy the rumor, sell the news". Traders are trying to front-run the news, because that is how they can make the most money.
fec2245 | 5 hours ago
So why aren’t you getting rich?
gs87 | 5 hours ago
most of people who invested getting richer but it's nothing compared to the people who already richy rich and has inside trade information
fec2245 | 5 hours ago
I’m skeptical that these redditors who think they’re much smarter than the market would do better day trading than simply holding index funds. In my opinion everything is obvious in hindsight and people over estimate their intuition.
Dutch1206 | 4 hours ago
You can make the argument that this applies to investors on wall street as well. If you look at actively managed funds, factoring in fees, their outperformance/underperformance relative to index funds isn't significantly different from 0%.
fec2245 | 4 hours ago
Agree and those are professionals who spend their entire workdays trying to outsmart the market. It’s why I think it’s funny that half of this subreddit think they have it all figured out. If they do they should be rich.
High_Contact_ | 5 hours ago
A lot of us are basically following the fact that there is extreme corruption.
fec2245 | 5 hours ago
I agree Trump is corrupt but that’s a separate point from their claim. If the market is acting irrationally and over reacting to noise/messaging it should be easy to make money.
High_Contact_ | 5 hours ago
How is it not easy? the market literally has been parabolic. Anyone who has been steadily pouring money into the market over the last few years has been making a killing.
fec2245 | 5 hours ago
Going long equities doesn’t rely on believing you’re smarter than the market. If you really are smarter than the market there’s even more money to be made in day trading. Of course most people aren’t as good at predictions as they think they are so they typically do worse than passive investors.
NJTigers | 4 hours ago
It isn’t easy for anyone to make money in the short term, but go look at Trump’s stock trades for Q1 next to his public comments about companies/events tied to those companies. He and his cronies are doing continuous insider trading. Though if you’re the one making the markets move it is something worse and more insidious than insider trading that I’m not sure we have a proper term yet. Don’t try to minimize the incredible grift/corruption/harm he is doing to the markets and nation on a daily and hourly basis.
High_Contact_ | 4 hours ago
The point is you don’t need to trade in this market stocks move up so fast and with such little pullbacks, it would be stupid to trade.
Raise_A_Thoth | 4 hours ago
"Trump changes his mind on a whim and tells his investor buddies when he's about to claim a deal is done"
"Oh if that's the case why aren't you one of Trump's insider buddies?!"
🤦♂️
fec2245 | 3 hours ago
Half the comments in the post are saying how predicable this all is and how dumb the market is for not realizing that. Some posts are even providing day by day forcasts of what will happen. If you are smarter than the market you should cash in. I think Trump is as unpredicable as he is corrupt, I don't think I know what next Monday holds but if you, as many here, are confident it will involve the war re-escalating you should invest accordingly.
Raise_A_Thoth | 3 hours ago
You weren't responding to a comment that claimed they could accurately time the market. They just said Trump's behavior is predictable because it's repeated consistently and the market is irrational.
Just because the market is irrational doesn't mean anyone can accurately time to bubble bursting.
The oil embargo of 1973 was in effect for about 6 months and it took months for the markets to completely feel the effects.
fec2245 | 3 hours ago
If you can predict Trump’s actions better than the market you could definitely profit from this conflict. That is so obvious it shouldn’t have to be stated. There’s plenty of volatility to take advantage of.
Raise_A_Thoth | 3 hours ago
Predicting what is likely to happen is not the same as timing the market. If you were just holding stocks during this time you'd be up, no timing required. Although I am still expecting a significant correction within a year due to at the very least the oil crisis.
Illustrious-Lime-878 | 5 hours ago
Well, we are lol have you seen stock prices? How long that will last is another question...
fec2245 | 5 hours ago
If you doubt there will be a deal, or if you think the war will light back off next week as a different person said, then go long oil.
Illustrious-Lime-878 | 4 hours ago
Whether there is "a deal" or not* doesn't matter, the damage is done, its a matter of when it manifest in prices not whether some meaningless "deal" is made.
Because a deal is impossible. The US has no credibility to hold to anything, so its just a matter of what empty statement they can cajole out of Tehran to spin this as anything less than an abject failure, the underling fundamental conditions will remain largely the same, seeing as most of the hostility has winded down, the authorization has run out, the political will for escalation beyond empty threats on twitter is near zero. The only unexpected outcome would be the worse case.
fec2245 | 4 hours ago
Sounds like you should invest on your hypothesis
Illustrious-Lime-878 | 3 hours ago
I do lol Knowing reality but also knowing the market is disconnected from reality is profitable, now and in the future when things reverse. Being caught up in the short term news cycle about meaningless "deals" and only being right by happenstance because the market is equality disconnected from reality only makes you lucky for now.
TheDadThatGrills | 5 hours ago
I don't think you're participating in the market based on this comment. What pumps and dumps are you experiencing?
notkevin_durant | 4 hours ago
They say it for the memes because it’s absolutely not based in reality.
TheDadThatGrills | 4 hours ago
100%. I should have looked at their comment history before bothering to reply. It's exclusively cynical doomerism.
Atalung | 5 hours ago
I'm sorry how does anyone buy this anymore? I swear every week it's the same dance, there are talks that are "promising", then trump says "I don't know if I like this" and kills a bunch of civilians, rinse and repeat. Is it just wishful delusion on wall streets part?
NotAnotherEmpire | 4 hours ago
Headline trades always happen before humans could mentally form an execution order, let alone read a 1 minute article.
Economy_Zombie_3026 | an hour ago
I swear it's the culmination of being a "religious society." That whole protestant work ethic fucking with the minds of our less scrupulous citizens. You only rise to a position of power because you worked hard. You worked hard so God bestowed upon you plenty. Have faith in those that God have given plenty for they obviously did something to deserve it.
"Iran is 115% destroyed and Hormuz is no issue...."
"Well, I guess there's nothing to worry about..."
Tibreaven | 5 hours ago
Every article on this subject that doesn't have a "Trump and Iran have both repeatedly claimed then unclaimed having a deal for the last 3 months" disclaimer at the bottom is doing a disservice to journalism.
Groovychick1978 | 4 hours ago
Yeah, that's not what it says.
"Tehran had obtained a draft of an initial, unofficial framework for a memorandum of understanding with the United States on ending their conflict."
"Iran would restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, while the United States would withdraw military forces from Iran's vicinity and lift a naval blockade."
"...the framework, which excludes military vessels and envisages Iran managing ship traffic through the strait in cooperation with Oman, was not yet finalised and that Tehran would take no steps without "tangible verification".
"It added that if a final agreement was reached within 60 days, it could be approved as a binding U.N. Security Council resolution."
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-draft-us-deal-would-reopen-hormuz-shipping-end-naval-blockade-2026-05-27/
So if a final agreement is reached in 60 days, then they will have a month to return the strait of Hormuz into the pre-war state.
"Managed" in cooperation with Oman.
Own-Chemist2228 | 4 hours ago
A concept of a plan.
NotAnotherEmpire | 4 hours ago
And if the agreement gives Iran what it wants (free oil sales, no nuke concessions).
cheweychewchew | 4 hours ago
Trump today: "WE GOT A 'DEAL'! BUY!! BUY!! BUYYYYYY!!"
Trump three days from now: "THE DEAL FELL THROUGH!! SELL WHEN IT HITS $105!! THEN WE'LL MAKE ANOTHER 'DEAL' WITH IRAN NEXT WEEK LOLOLOLOL!!"
Berserker76 | 4 hours ago
Who believes anything coming out of this administration? Some unknown source makes bets on oil and Trump 15 minutes later makes an announcement that makes that bet worth millions of dollars.
Most corrupt administration American history and history will not look kindly on how we allowed this to happen.
NameLips | 4 hours ago
Why does it feel like oil prices are running on hopium? They were literally shooting at each other yesterday, and doubling down on the things they will never negotiate.
differentshade | 3 hours ago
That is literally how market pricing works? On hope and fear. It is the same for stocks.
NameLips | 3 hours ago
At some point the hope and fear run into reality. You can't run a refinery on hope. If the oil literally isn't available it becomes a lot harder to manipulate the market with tweets.
[OP] TACO_Orange_3098 | 4 hours ago
Age of algos ! this is how headline risk works and snaps one way or another at the literal speed of light ( or close )
but dont forget this way is the better way .............. just not for the little guy :D
Foxxthegreat | 3 hours ago
Is it TACO Tuesday already? Crazy how much the price fluctuates on the same regurgitated headlines every week with no difference in results. It's either "We're close to a deal, everything's opening up" or "they refuse to negotiate, we're bombing them back to the stone age", and while that has become such a predictable pattern, i'm still baffled how the market still buys into this to the point of being influenced by the same cheap talk.
maldovix | 3 hours ago
technically wednesday but only because it is a short holiday week
[OP] TACO_Orange_3098 | an hour ago
everyday is taco day :D
you get a taco and i get a taco and we all get a TACO !!!
when will enough be enough , the matrix was a nice movie I DO NOT WANT TO TRY IT FOR REAL !!
RealisticForYou | 5 hours ago
Satellite imagery shows that ships are indeed getting through The Strait. This all began last week. Reports are saying that approximately 10% of ships are, once again, loading up on oil.
And what is Caligula gonna do about that? Do we really think he‘s gonna bomb a tanker from China as they load up on oil?
And this is why oil is down, because even a small amount of ships getting through The Strait, is better than no ships at all.
TipAfraid4755 | 4 hours ago
People still believe that shit? It's been "over very very soon" for several weeks stale now.
How about believing the Ukraine war also ended in 24hrs?
whatfresh_hellisthis | 4 hours ago
Hahahahahaha
Restore traffic in one month. Even if they could, the flow of oil and gas has been decimated. It will take years for the amounts to total what was flowing before this idiot trump decided to do what every other POTUS wasn't stupid enough to do.
I-Might-Be-Something | 4 hours ago
> However, Iran will manage ship traffic through Hormuz in cooperation with Oman, state television said. U.S. military forces would withdraw from the vicinity of Iran and lift the naval blockade, the reports said.
This is absolutely fucking horrible. In what was once a free water way that wasn't managed by any regional actor, it will no be managed by two powers, one of which has shown the ability to shut it down with ease. This is a total win for the Iranians and a sign that Trump just wants this over so it doesn't further hurt the Republicans in the midterms. Not that it will matter, it'll take months for things to get back to the way they were and the price shock will last quite some time.
flickh | 3 hours ago
Yes, it’s terrible that Obama made all this happen when he bombed Iran last year. And Biden launched the Iraq invasion in 2018 which made Saddam blow up the twin towers, so now Bin Laden is closing the Suez Strait and something something Jimmy Carter.
SikatSikat | 5 hours ago
I mean, yea if they make a deal, one month is actually longer than I'd expect. Why keep it closed for a month after a deal? And the hard part is the deal itself since they want money and to keep at least as much of their nuclear program as the Obama deal, both of which were derided by Trump/GOP for political reasons, so they can't agree because then they lost U.S. lives and spent billions on this war just to ultimately give Iran more money and the same or better program than they had before Trump.
That's what stops the detente here and this is not relevant news to that, but a suggestion that opening will take LONGER than expectations would be otherwise.
ToastedandTripping | 5 hours ago
I would guess they want to wait 30days to ensure Trump doesn't just bomb them again...
Greedyanda | 4 hours ago
The US has only very limited demining capabilities.
zetaphi938 | 4 hours ago
Oh, so it's market manipulation, and now every country involved and every media source is also in on it? Nobody is even trying to be an actual journalist anymore and call out the absolute hypocrisy for what it is. They're just trying to pump the market.
But what really gets me is that this is state subsidized market manipulation. The troops, the weapons, the equipment, all of the resources to transport and feed our manpower are paid for by us so Trump and company can continually manipulate the markets.
dontbanme55 | 3 hours ago
I wonder if companies like airlines - should buy oil futures? Or buy all the oil they can get at $89. Sure algorithms may move commodities prices of oil based on headline news. But actual companies need oil delivered (long term contracts,etc). Seems like the prudent thing to do, as geopolitics news can spike the price of oil.
Edit - I see a lot of comments about market manipulation (White House/Trump,etc). I wonder how the market moves this drastically. If an unreliable narrator says there will be peace, reopening, ceasefire and keeps in reneging. Sure perhaps the first few times they can time the market. But later now (like with this news report) - companies that actually need oil deliveries can get it for cheaper during the down spikes.
DollarBillAxeCap | 19 minutes ago
Love how the market is reacting to literally nothing. Doesn't say IRAN has agreed to anything. Just the agreement would restore traffic. 🤦♂️
NewNick30 | 5 hours ago
Oil futures are now down to $77. They dipped that low previously at the beginning of May before shooting right back up to over $100. Let's hope the prices can finally stay down and an actual agreement happens.
Edit: You can downvote me all you want, but it doesn't change facts. CLW00
[OP] TACO_Orange_3098 | 5 hours ago
which month is 77 ?
NewNick30 | 5 hours ago
Front month futures
[OP] TACO_Orange_3098 | 5 hours ago
really so , the June contract is 77 ?
For West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded on the NYMEX, the prompt month is currently the July 2026 contract, sitting around \(\$90\text{--}\$91\) per barrel
only month i currently show at 77.45 is DEC 2026
nice try :D
NewNick30 | 4 hours ago
I'm not trying to do anything...
https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/CLW00:NYMEX
You can even compare to Brent Crude futures which are down to $84 and headed in the same direction. Not sure what you think I'm trying to do
gumbykook | 3 hours ago
Nice try diddy
irvmuller | 5 hours ago
There won’t be an agreement. The only agreement Iran would agree to at this point is one that makes them better off. That will make it look like the USA lost. They promised at the beginning the war would be over in 4 weeks. They’ve lost control and are in an escalation trap.
rawkguitar | 5 hours ago
Not necessarily. Trump doesn’t have to get a better deal than Obama did. He just has to get some sort of deal, and he’ll announce that it is better than the Obama deal, most of his minions will believe him, then we’ll move on to the next catastrophe.
colorovfire | 4 hours ago
And Israel will do everything in their power to tank any deal. I would agree with you if Israel wasn’t factor in this but they absolutely do not want any regional power that can challenge them.
rawkguitar | an hour ago
Just because Israel bombed the people we were negotiating with while we were negotiating with them doesn’t mean they would tank any deal….
Wait…….
Own-Chemist2228 | 4 hours ago
This is how things work in the Post Truth era.
irvmuller | 4 hours ago
Iran won’t walk away without control of the straight. If they give it up there’s no guarantee they could control it again. They’ve also asked for reparations to the tune of 270 billion. Remember how conservatives flipped out because Obama unfroze 1.7 billion?
Doing both or either will look like a loss except to die hard MAGA. It would politically be over for Trump. First clear loss for America since Vietnam. So they are stuck in an escalation trap. We will lose eventually but the President isn’t ready for that.
Iran is comfortable. They’re getting millions every day. They see their losses as martyrdom. They’re not stopping.
Extra_Toppings | 4 hours ago
The algorithms are owned and trained by someone. They are not some forgone organic conclusion. Hopefully international trading partners can help curb lack of US regulation