U.S. wheat crops wither, herds thin as spring drought deepens | Fortune

812 points by kootles10 18 hours ago on reddit | 97 comments

Guest_0_ | 18 hours ago

Nice, more good news.

The fertilizer crisis and energy shock that are now hitting farmers, who were already reeling from tariffs and loss of exports, is going to cause food inflation to sky rocket and more than likely lead to global famine.

Thanks Trump.

Oh and my head exploded yesterday when Hegseth, at a press conference, actually said this war was a gift to the world. Yea the gift of global depression.

Yvaelle | 17 hours ago

US farmers will find a way to blame it on the Demonrats when they go back to the polls to re-elect Trump in November, having just lost their family farms.

GaiusAutisticus | 16 hours ago

Vance's AcreTrader buddies will buy their farms for pennies on the dollar and they'll vote for him in 2028 with smiles

AcknowledgeUs | 15 hours ago

Instead of predicting their sickness, they need to be inoculated. Or something

Nebraska716 | 16 hours ago

We are lots of years out from farms being sold cheap. Lots of farmers with deep pockets.

Savings_Pie_8470 | 16 hours ago

>Lots of farmers with deep pockets.

The only farmers I have met with deep pockets are really rich people playing "farmer" to write it off on their taxes.

Most actual farmers I've met are poor as shit and one to two bad seasons away from going belly up. There is a reason suicides are sky high for farmers in the US.

Nebraska716 | 12 hours ago

You haven’t met many farmers then. Farmers are not gonna let a piece of ground near them go for nothing. And rich people don’t buy farms to “write it off”. They buy it for an investment.

RotalumisEht | 11 hours ago

When investors buy farms who grows the crops on that land?

(The answer is poor farmers)

GoalPuzzleheaded5946 | 2 hours ago

>We are lots of years out from farms being sold cheap. Lots of farmers with deep pockets.

lmao sure Jan. Deep pockets meaning tax payer subsidies.

Isosorbide | 16 hours ago

Was demonrats intentional or a delightful typo?

Yvaelle | 16 hours ago

It's a thing MAGA people call Democrats.

Isosorbide | 16 hours ago

For when "libtard" just won't do the trick.

imalurkernotaposter | 16 hours ago

See also: demoncrats.

judgejuddhirsch | 17 hours ago

Well, project 25 wrote that the death of non whites around the globe would strengthen America. By their own rubric, famine in poor countries is the best case scenario.

If people wanted global prosperity, they would have voted differently.

RichIndependence8930 | 16 hours ago

I truly hope the boats head right here full of people with lethal intent. God knows there are plenty of people here that deserve to taste the fruit of their harvest.

yourlittlebirdie | 18 hours ago

Yes but on the other hand, trans girls aren’t able to win middle school track meets so I’m sure we can all agree it’s been worth it.

oneWeek2024 | 17 hours ago

every time a farmer commits suicide a republican grifter gets it's wings....

Pretend_Handle_7639 | 6 hours ago

every time a farmer commits suicide a t-girl gets her puss

weealex | 16 hours ago

Well, get tied for 5th

RedK_33 | 17 hours ago

Behold, the era of scarcity beckons us forth.

Ghoulius-Caesar | 17 hours ago

I hate how every day is Opposite Day for this administration. Constant lies that are laughably false presented as the “truth”….

Blood_Casino | 12 hours ago

Just spray more Glyphosate on it and call it a day

spidereater | 18 hours ago

There is some chance this will lead to decreased meat consumption as people seek alternatives. Once people find tasty meatless or low meat recipes it will make it less attractive to go back to meat if prices ever come down. Just like the people looking at EVs with high gas prices. Once people switch they won’t go back.

RedK_33 | 17 hours ago

Bring on the BEANS!!!!!

Earthwarm_Revolt | 17 hours ago

Bring on lab grown meat. Once steak is too expensive lab meat will only get cheaper and take the market. No killing, you can eat any animal you want and the environmental impact will drop substantially and allow for grassland rewilding.

spidereater | 13 hours ago

I wonder how much beef will even be grown? Maybe everyone will be eating water buffalo burgers.

SoftballLesbian | 17 hours ago

They're not going to go back to meat because meat will never be cheap again. Likewise, legumes will become more and more expensive as it becomes less and less profitable to grow cheap commodities. Farmers will allow fields to go fallow and then pivot to raising pasture fed beef for wealthy clientele. Ordinary people will be SOL unless they luck into a food cooperative.

Reznerk | 17 hours ago

Meats still relatively cheap excluding beef, and legumes would have to shoot up like 1000% to even be in the same ballpark. Not totally discounting your point but we're still a ways away from needing a food co-op to survive. Fairly likely beef becomes more of a delicacy in the next 30 years though, it's just not economical. People can blame meatpackers for prices but it's just not a realistic view of the real cost of goods that go into raising and bringing you a pound of beef.

Vegetable-Board-5547 | 16 hours ago

We'll be eating offline and chicken parts like they do in the Philippines.

joepez | 16 hours ago

You're giving the American consumer too much critical thinking. Look at post-recession car sales. Around that same time people were abandoning SUVs and trucks because of the high payments and opex costs. Fuel efficient cars sales went up. Fast foward ten years, less, and SUV and truck sales were back up. Repeat cycle.

Same will be true with meat. People will pull back. Complain and then increase consumption all over again while going through another debt cycle. There's a reason people call it a hangover even for the economy. THe lesson isn't learned by the majority.

SurinamPam | 16 hours ago

And overconsumption of red meat and processed meats is associated with reduced healthspan.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-03-02-regular-meat-consumption-linked-wide-range-common-diseases

pabodie | 16 hours ago

Wow man. That is some silver lining you found there.

RickSt3r | 17 hours ago

Americans are by and large bad cooks. They will flock back to easy to cook tasty beef as soon as they can afford it again. I’ve went down Midwest food critic TikTok and I didn’t know how bad that region was at cooking. Not a single spice ever used. Their flavor spice of choice is mayonnaise, because it has acid, salt, and fat. They spread that shit on everything.

azerty543 | 17 hours ago

Its embarrassing that you are basing your assumptions about these things on TikTok. You are accusing Americans of being ignorant and uncultured, but really just proving that you have those qualities yourself

RickSt3r | 17 hours ago

Have you seen average American diets? There is whole cultural stereotypes based off people’s experience of bland flavorless food being an American thing. Not only that it due to American puritan founding.

“Puritans largely avoided spices due to a religious and cultural commitment to austerity, viewing indulgent food as a sinful distraction that overstimulated bodily appetites. They favored bland, simple diets as part of a pious, self-denying lifestyle, viewing intense flavors, foreign spices, and rich foods as markers of decadent Roman Catholic traditions or "perverted appetites"”

https://manyheadedmonster.com/2014/08/08/elizabethan-madmen-part-iii-puritans-plums-and-a-cereal-complainer-geddit/#:~:text=The%20puritan%20relationship%20with%20food,deliberately%20refrain%20from%20eating%20it.

azerty543 | 11 hours ago

Yeah I've been working in restaurants 20 years. Im VERY aware of what people eat. Nobody cares what the Puritans eat. Towns of 200 have Mexican and Chinese joints and even small cities have thai, Indian, Ethiopian ect.

You are completely misinformed, and should stop being so confidently ignorant. Stereotypes are dumb and often based on outdated information by generations.

Late_Stage_Exception | 17 hours ago

It’s always weird when people throw in the “you don’t use a lot of spices when cooking” thing likes it’s a diss. Like, sure, you can add depth of flavor to things by adding complimentary spices and herbs, but not everything NEEDS it. Hell, tons of spice is often used to mask low quality ingredients in the first place or to make food last longer in warmer climates, so its existence also doesn’t mean good cooking. A well made croissant has literally no spice in it but that shits delicious. Chicken tikka has its place, but so do other forms of cooking.

RickSt3r | 16 hours ago

Using spices to make low quality food good is the epitome of good cooking. Using spices to make food taste better is an art. Take your basic croissant, the thin layered bread with a good dough is also an art that I’m sure your average American can’t make from basics of flour, water and salt well. But then to up it a step now a honey, saffron infused butter to top it off. See how just simple spice can up it.

Late_Stage_Exception | 14 hours ago

Nah b, sometimes you wanna taste the thing that you’re making, and good quality ingredients can speak for themselves. Spiced foods have their place, but so does enjoying the flavor of fresh baked bread, or a nice juicy steak, or some delicious tuna sashimi. All cooking is valid and you trying to put others down just cause your fam out old bay in everything is kinda shitty.

RickSt3r | 14 hours ago

That’s a very privileged perspective . Oh just use good ingredients and your food will taste good. My point in an economic reddit, is that people won’t turn to meat alternatives because they lack the knowledge skills and abilities to make simple foods taste good. There is more to seasoning than old bay, it’s using fresh herbs such as thyme, rosemary, bay leaves, cilantro, so many to name I have a full cupboard. The fact you point out oh this guy likes the lowest tier seasons means you have no cooking skills or knowledge of seasonings. I’m sure you’re wondering why restaurants food tastes so much better, it’s because of seasoning.

Most people don’t know how to bake either, that’s even more challenging than traditional cooking. Steak and tuna when made well use seasoning, and they are also a luxurious privileged items only available to upper class for most of human exists, and from the economic outlook we’ve made it back to that state. There is a large percentage of Americans who would cook both steaks and tuna well done then add ketchup and fish sauce.

It’s also not 1626, with information availability at easily accessible to all. A whole group of people having a bland diet is a conscious choice at this point. You probably ask the breakfast dinner to hold the pepper.

Late_Stage_Exception | 13 hours ago

Dude you came in shitting ok the Midwest, like what?

Also, I’m not the one talking about adding literal saffron to the humble croissant. Like, come on homes. Be consistent .

RickSt3r | 13 hours ago

Have you ever cooked with a herbs and spices, shit goes a long ways and cost per serving is in the pennies. Literally cents to make food taste good. Midwest food is lacking flavor is my main point. The cost is in knowledge skills and abilities.

You came in defending bland food, with the premise of if you spend money it doesn’t taste bad.

missbwith2boys | 15 hours ago

They’re used to factory foods. Heck, a lot of Americans are. Not enough folks know how to cook from scratch.

gemfountain | 17 hours ago

Bless your heart and butter my biscuits. You ain't right. You ain't never been right.

MyotisX | 17 hours ago

>Hegseth, at a press conference, actually said this war was a gift to the world

Was it before or after he blamed Obama and cried about Hilary ?

Beelzabubba | 16 hours ago

Hegseth’s “world” probably consists of defense contractors. This is absolutely a gift to them.

Slumunistmanifisto | 17 hours ago

Wars a gift if you hate life and love

nanoH2O | 17 hours ago

Thankfully we will all be getting a tariff refund (/s)

Hautamaki | 17 hours ago

Hard to decide if it's worse whether Hegseth actually believes that, or knows he's brazenly lying.

vulgrin | 10 hours ago

It’s almost as a species we’ve decided we’re too dumb to survive.

OracleofFl | 9 hours ago

Maybe, just maybe, God is trying to tell them something?

[OP] kootles10 | 18 hours ago

From the article:

Farmers across the Great Plains are confronting an intense drought that threatens winter wheat harvests and is pushing cattle producers toward costly feed purchases, prompting some to abandon plans to expand their herds.

The dryness is expected to persist through spring after weeks of scant rainfall and a late-winter heat spell that fueled massive pasture fires across the nation’s breadbasket. Drought now covers nearly 90% of Nebraska and Oklahoma, with more than half of Nebraska in “extreme” drought. Such conditions have historically driven cattle producers to sell off animals and forced farmers to drill new irrigation wells as rivers run dry.

Buckle up again I guess Y'all

spidereater | 18 hours ago

I guess beef prices are going to remain sky high for a least another year. If farmers are shrinking their herd it will take a long while for any shortages to be corrected.

RedParaglider | 18 hours ago

Multiple years.  Our aquifers are fucked from ethanol among other things, mega corps now own the beef packing plants and are laying off and closing a ton of capacity to drive down costs by constricting markets, simple tree barriers to block winds have been systematically abandoned by industrial farms that no longer steward the land causing higher drought impacts.  It's going to be a bumpy ride.

lost_horizons | 18 hours ago

Screw beef prices, wheat going up in price is scary for actual famine across the world. We can live without beef (sure it's good but there are cheaper proteins), but damn. Food shortages could be said to have caused or contributed to the Arab Spring, this is really dangerous (I'm worried because of the Hormuz crisis, with lack of fertilizer etc. Corn is in trouble too as I understand).

Willthethrill605 | 17 hours ago

That’s what I was thinking. Cattle will find feed lots or grazing elsewhere. Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas are wheat country. If there is a crop failure, it would make wheat profitable again. It’s been a loss for years.

Never_Really_Right | 18 hours ago

I wonder why the only mention NB and OK. Add CO and KS, at least, to that list. Colorado was wild. I was in the mountains in January and it looked like May in terms of snowpack.

Nebraska716 | 16 hours ago

Majority of the corn belt is not in any drought. We will still have plenty of corn and the I states will once again benefit from a drought out west and still complain that farming is tough.

onceinawhile222 | 18 hours ago

This is not limited to the Midwest. Southeast is also experiencing extensive drought conditions that have potential to impact agriculture and food prices. Also minimal snow pack will probably impact western agriculture as well.

[OP] kootles10 | 17 hours ago

Very true (although I wouldn't consider Oklahoma and Nebraska the Midwest but I get what you're saying)

azerty543 | 17 hours ago

It doesn't really matter what you think is the midwest. 90% of Nebraskans consider themselves midwestern and its not up to outsiders to decide what a state identifies as.

Nebraska716 | 12 hours ago

90 percent of Nebraska’s live in the eastern half of the country. Midwest is such an outdated term that needs to go away.

juggett | 14 hours ago

I identify as ciswestern.

[OP] kootles10 | 17 hours ago

Well as someone who actually lives in the Midwest, no one in the Midwest believes Nebraska is in the Midwest. The Plains? Sure. The Midwest? Never

azerty543 | 17 hours ago

I'm born and raised in Minnesota and Live in Kansas City. Most people don't at all care about this question anyways. Again though, your existence in another midwestern state doesn't give you any authority to define the region or decide who is in or who is out. Its not up to a democratic vote.

At any rate though, polls say that Most Americans think that Nebraska is a midwestern state. Moreso than most other states considered midwestern. Your experience is anecdotal, contrary to the opinions of the rest of the country, contrary to what Nebraskans think and frankly contrary to the existence and history of the word (which was originally used to describe Kansas)

You just want the midwest to be a smaller club so you feel more special. Well its not. Its fucking farmland from Nebraska to Ohio.

SWtoNWmom | 13 hours ago

If it's not the Midwest, then what is it? It's not the south. It's not either coast. It's not New England. What's left?

es-ganso | 9 hours ago

Yeah... You're wrong. Even the census considers it the Midwest

https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/maps-data/maps/reference/us_regdiv.pdf

SurinamPam | 17 hours ago

Passing legislation that shields oil and gas companies from the consequences of their actions likely means that these kinds of weather events will probably become more frequent and more severe.

thecamino | 18 hours ago

The fact that the US continues to alienate the rest of the world with tariffs, threats, and assorted bad neighbor behavior makes me worry about our ability to make up for food shortages with imports.

S_p_M_14 | 17 hours ago

The US is a net exporter of wheat by a MASSIVE margin. No one here is ever going to starve.

Farmers right now are struggling on a variety of factors, but a big concern with wheat is that it is generally a rotation crop and wheat prices are still near a historically low level (inflation adjusted) on top of the input costs (global market is FLUSHED with wheat).

Depending on the region, if they can, farmers are growing more soy or corn cash crops. In those markets, the trade war is a big issue for our export markets, namely China.

But in terms of having enough calories to feed people in the US at a reasonable price? It's an issue only in that we still have enough food to inflate the average BMI to new heights.

ExquisiteOrifice | 15 hours ago

"The US is a net exporter of wheat by a MASSIVE margin. No one here is ever going to starve."

Don't underestimate capitalism. If China or someone else can pay more than you, it'll get shipped there.

SurrealDali1985 | 17 hours ago

The amount of wildfires in Alabama are unheard of this year. Well over a thousand acres have been on fire

Sky over Birmingham has been hazy at least half a dozen times this year

[OP] kootles10 | 17 hours ago

I know there's some in Georgia and Florida I believe as well. Didn't know about the ones in Alabama

RichIndependence8930 | 16 hours ago

I live in Florida, it is way too dry. We are getting rain once every 10 or so days when usually this time of the year its every 2 or 3 days.

[OP] kootles10 | 16 hours ago

I remember when I was in st augustine, rained 3 or 4 times a day some days

SurrealDali1985 | 16 hours ago

So far this year we have gotten a fraction of the rain we usually get

It was supposed to rain all day here and it drizzled early on and hasn’t rained since

[OP] kootles10 | 16 hours ago

I'd gladly give you the multiple inches of rain we're getting/got here in IL. Can't mow the lawn because of the puddles

karl4319 | 16 hours ago

So glad I grow most of my produce now. And do my own composting. And began serious prepping after that one debate. Biggest regret is not having enough to fully go solar, but that is a minor thing.

photon1701d | 16 hours ago

They could purchase surplus wheat from Canada...oh...I forgot, Trump says he needs nothing from Canada.

These poor farmers are taking a beating from the guy they all helped get elected.

picardo85 | an hour ago

> These poor farmers are taking a beating from the guy they all helped get elected.

Imagine if anyone would have told them that it was bad electing this president. Oh, wait...

Low_Ability4450 | 5 hours ago

Its looking like a usual supply shock with lower crop yields leadung to less supply so prices rise and this touches real incomes even if demand hasn’t changed.