Every article I have read in the past 48 hours have been contradictory, even the ones coming out 30 minutes apart from each other.
Strait is open, strait is closed. Negotiations halted, negotiations continuing. Iran tolling ships, Iran agreeing to no tolls. The US giving Iran 300 billion, the US not going to give them a single cent. Tankers moving through the strait, mines in the strait closing all traffic. US blockade lifted, blockade still in effect.
I'm starting to think nobody actually knows what is going on.
>I'm starting to think nobody actually knows what is going on.
We, as a country, literally voted for “concepts of a plan” and are now shocked, shocked!, that every plan is still entirely conceptual even mid-execution.
To paraphrase the line, we’re getting what we voted for good and hard.
Not only "concepts of a plan" but also a career scammer, narcissist, and reality TV star who has to make everything a big dramatic show about how strong he is.
Even if you ignore how stupid the war is in the first place and his inability to get a lasting peace plan, a normal leader would involve all factions in peace talks and wait until there's actually a finished negotiation before making any type of announcement.
With this administration, every week there's a new big "announcement" despite being a complete lie or not involving one of the major parties conveniently timed around the markets closing/opening.
I will always say those were coordinated efforts to undermine him. None of the many good things he did got coverage. The famously 24 hour News cycle managed to focus on a presidential debate for a month, barely losing focus when Trump literally got shot on the head. That story lasted less than a week, and right back to November having a bad debate (but little focus on how bad Trump also did in the debate. 🧐
You would have a good jobs report but the news would harp how this will keep rates and inflation high.
If you had a bad one they would say the economy and jobs were in trouble.
Nary a mention of the largest infrastructure bill or green new deal. lots on striking down student loan forgiveness or every senior pharmacy capped at 2k for meds or insulin at 35$ or how hes getting billions back from rich people skipping out on taxes or hundreds of billions by allowing medicare to negotiate with pharma.
I saw some reports on journalist news celebrate when trump won thinking they would be getting that sweet money engagement they got from the first trump presidency. Only for their entire ratings to tank 50%. Turns out when you colluded and sanewash to help trump win people didnt want to watch you anymore.
That's because you're intentionally blind on the left eye.
Their explicit and systemic racism and sexism, euphemised as affirmative action earlier and as DEI nowadays, makes each and every Dem unelectable from the get-go.
And of course that doesn't even touch on the abuse and genital mutilation of minors under the LGBT banner.
Haha. You’re a kind thief. It’s the short version of an old (Turkish?) proverb, something to the effect of, “when a jester sits in the throne, he doesn’t become a king, the palace becomes a circus”.
That’s exactly what we have. The greatest charlatan of all times was elected. The whole federal apparatus is now a circus. But wait, they knew it, we warned them, they voted for the clown anyway. Ugh.
Please, you're giving too much credit to the senile bastard. He might be one of the most destructive, but for pure art of it I gotta give it to P T Barnum instead.
Hence the greatest con of all times. Nobody has reached his level of ‘success’. Not Madoff, not Bankman-Fried, not Hitler, not Napoleon, nobody. Surreal that those with the power and the votes to stop Trump, let him be so prolific. Surreal.
Are you AI that has a short context window? Remember DOGE and how the federal government got purged of competent people? And how his administration is now full of sycophantic yes-men/women chancers?
They know they'd be bottom-feeders instead of having titles like "presidential advisor", so they're going to put all their incompetent effort into maintaining the corrupt Trumpian system going, rather than the job of serving the public.
Well they’re not contradictory. It followed a series of events.
The MoU was signed. The United States lifted their blockade. Iran started allowing traffic through. Then clause one of the MoU was violated, when Israel continued operations in Lebanon. So Iran, who fought hard for clause 1, said they will not be able to comply with their obligations if clause 1 is not fulfilled. Clause 1 explicitly states the end of military operations in Lebanon. The United States negotiated on behalf of Israel without Israel’s consent, however the United States should be able to guarantee this clause because of its leverage over Israel as its guarantor of regional security.
We will see how things move but this was an obvious obstacle of the MoU, and there is probably still hope from the American side that Iran will allow Israeli aggression against Hezbollah to slide. Ultimately, the permanence of peace talks relies on what happens with Israel and Hezbollah.
Not certain of this leverage over Israel. The administration has already said Israel can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants to, and Israel has not really concerned itself with anyone else’s opinion concerning their military operations. Netanyahu got what he wanted, namely direct US air and naval help against Iran, and will now proceed to do whatever he feels necessary. Not only does Iran have the upper hand in negotiations, but the main ally of the US is totally out of control. Trumps mess is spectacularly huge.
Trump vastly overestimated his influence with Netanyahu. It should not surprise us as he clearly has a personality disorder that causes grandiose thinking.
All those years he was in real estate using the fortune he inherited from his father other people went along with whatever he wanted because of his fortune.
Now as president he gets angry that he doesn’t get the same control so he uses the government to try to punish people who are not obsequious.
But he is in a tough spot with Israel because Congress holds the cards in this relationship - not the Presidency.
Yeah, but unfortunately, the influence of AIPAC and the Israel lobby holds sway over both parties to an alarming degree. It's one of the few times where you can, in fact, say both parties are the same, because the mainstream elements of both parties have proven repeatedly they will not denounce or cut off military support for Israel.
And now Congress is passing laws basically making it illegal to cut off military support to Israel. It's absolutely insane.
The United States has diplomatic leverage over Israel, and military leverage. They obviously provide them with military aid, and work in concert with Israel’s intelligence agencies, but what’s more important is that if the UN drafts a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire, and the US does not veto such a resolution, the security council could issue arms embargoes, sanctions, (if they were passed) that would economically isolate Israel.
This is the leverage the US has over Israel. It’s similar to the leverage it has over Iran regarding Iran’s nuclear program, the leverage that they used to get Iran to agree to the JCPOA.
It is reasonable to treat the US and Israel as a single unit because they are allies in this conflict. But Israel seems intent on following their own agenda regardless of what the US says. And we seem unwilling to put conditions on our unconditional military support of Israel.
The whole thing is a mess. Who could have guessed peace in the middle east would be so difficult?
No it isn't reasonable to pretend Israel is a US puppet administration. It's also unreasonable to believe the IRGC and Hezbollah should be able to conduct their campaign of terror without response.
It is reasonable but that doesn’t mean that the American executive administration is interested in isolating themselves from the legislative branch by strong arming Israel into complying with clause 1. All of this is about the carrot for Iran and the stick for Israel. Will Iran chase the carrot of economic relief before the United States uses the stick against Israel in order finish the conflict. That is our limbo.
Looks like you're getting tripped up on language and technicalities. My understanding:
> Strait is open, strait is closed.
The straight was "open" but difficult to pass. Think, "We won't fire missiles at you, but there are still all those mines to worry about. So you should probably hold tight until we finish removing them."
> Iran tolling ships, Iran agreeing to no tolls.
The MOU says:
"The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz."
The argument was that "applicable international law" means Iran cannot impose tolls on international waterways. So Iran according to the MOU says they can't charge "tolls".
The way out of that is by calling the tolls "fees" and saying you provided a service for our charges (this explains the phrase "maritime services" above in the MOU). This allows Iran to charge money for passage of the straight while everyone agrees Iran's not allowed to charge "tolls".
> The US giving Iran 300 billion, the US not going to give them a single cent.
Again, from the MOU:
"The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
The US developing a development plan worth $300 billion doesn't mean the US is paying for it, so Trumpers will argue this doesn't commit the US to spending anything. The US can form a coalition of gulf states that invest $300 billion in the plan, and if they do, they're not paying a cent.
Non Trumpers will say, "yeah, well, what if the gulf states don't want to commit $300 billion to a plan they didn't agree to that gives money to a country that was just destroying their infrastructure?" That money's gotta come from somewhere, and it's hard to imagine where else that money would come from other than the US in that circumstance.
>mines in the strait closing all traffic
You may have misread titles like the one from this post (saving you a click, the title is, "Hormuz disruption will continue until 80 mines blocking route are cleared. Tanker owner trade body says centre of strait will stay shut for ‘some time’, and vessels forced to hug Omani coast risk running aground.") Note: at the time this article was written, Iran had not yet walked away from the deal due to Israel's attacks.
Hormuz traffic was "disrupted" and will continue to be disrupted because the whole straight isn't open, the center part of the strait is mined. But the strait of Hormuz wasn't "closed", because ships could still circumvent the mines by taking a different route near the Omani shoreline.
So at the time of the article, the state of Hormuz traffic was "it's open, but disrupted due to mines".
Iran is probably aware that the $300B promise is a bag of shit as any Trump promise...
IIRC before he was just some sleazy "businessman" and not a sleazy president, he got to be the guest of honor of some charity event because he promised to donate to them. The event finished, and the donation never showed up.
I think its important to also keep in mind that Donald Trump raped children and is causing chaos on purpose to distract, while enriching himself. No need to make sense of it.
Interesting. A quick search says the average ships per day through Hormuz prior to the war was 100 to 200. But that site says normal daily average is 60. It also lists traffic as restricted, though it also says traffic is 90% of expected normal.
Are you saying firing every non-sycophant of the US government and world most powerful military would cause disruption and confusion???
Fuck, color me shocked. Now don’t mind me, just going to go drink some green algae-paint water from the reflecting pool like the god damn patriot I am 🇺🇸 🦅 🧨
Congratulations. You can finally peak behind the curtain and see that truly no one knows what the f is going on and everyone is playing catch up with their agenda/motives.
Iran knows what's going on with global oil reserves. They know when the US midterms are. They are well aware of Donald's personality disorders, dementia, and other health problems. They will be the first to stop a peace deal at any violation, making the Clown Show beg for forgiveness. This is the current state of the United States of America; it's going to be months of repeated humiliation.
Good. The MAGAs in my life are starting to become unhappy with Dear Leader. They just need a little bit more of a push to see the truth about the shit head they elected. They're so close.
The script flips with delusion - I've heard plenty of them start to use phrases like 'we're just not focusing on politics anymore-'. They'll just quietly pretend that they never really supported this adminstration in the first place as it goes down in flames.
At this point it's looking a lot more like Congress than Trump is at fault. I mean, Trump is incompetent to be sure, and if he lead just a little bit this would have never been a problem, but Congress needs to step in and cut off Israel. And there's bipartisan support for giving Israel a blank check.
Not so sure about that. I remember someone talking about their conversation with a GOP lawmaker (Dems have a similar problem). They were discussing US policy issues, and even on that, the Congressman plainly said "I'll have to check with my AIPAC guy." It's well known that just about every member of Congress has a dedicated AIPAC rep, and everything must be approved by them. It's not just the money they give, it's how much they will spend if someone steps out of line.
Problematically, they can push a depression BUT the problems gonna show up at their doorstep if the US really wants to. The willingness of boots on the ground is low but if push comes to shove the regime will have big problems domestically if land starts being ceded
Boots on the ground would be a blood bath for the United States. Sure Iran might temporarily lose control of some mountain areas... But holding on to those pyrrhic gains would not be sustainable.
There would be losses but the full might of the US military would stomp them hard. This isn’t Vietnam where they can move supply lines blindly. The regime would be having an existential crisis almost immediately. They themselves would have tremendous trouble holding onto their stranglehold of the country. Sure, civil war and cells will drag it out but they will not be able to hold onto their country
If competent US military leadership was in full charge of that? Sure.
But you have to be realistic. This version of the US declared war on Iran with 1 carrier in the area and no preparation of regional forces for the escalation.
No other iteration of the US would have ever been so stupid.
There is no reason to believe that if this US decided to launch a land invasion, it would do so with any more intelligence, preparation, planning or foresight.
If US military leadership had actual leverage, this whole war would have either been done differently, or not at all.
Given those conditions, I doubt Trump could achieve what Bush did in Iraq. Especially as Iran is geographically harder to invade and is better prepared.
It wouldn’t be about popularity if they forced their hand, it would be about global economic stability and they wouldn’t have any choice at that point.
Lol what's that supposed to mean? You're just gonna disregard the future ramifications of your choices? That's how we ended up here in the first place. Let's learn from that.
It'd take at least 6 months, in not a year to get a full invasion force in place. It'd also require securing political acceptance from neighbouring countries where that build up would take place (unless you think a solely amphibious invasion of Iran is plausible lol).
And unlike Iraq, US invasion forces will likely be under fire and drone strikes for the entire time during that build up.
Even then, you could see Iran decide to blow the oil infrastructure in the ME at any time if it feels its going down anyway in order to worsen the situation for the US.
Turns out the time to prepare for invasion was before starting the war. Not after.
I sometimes wonder who is more impulsive. The president of US or the investors, who were celebrating the deal and brought the oil futures down to $75 considering the fact that it would take months to get the oil flowing “normally” from the the strait.
i think you may underestimate the sophistication of futures traders. because i think you missed the part where futures are contracts for FUTURE delivery. you seriously think they don’t know what you, a random reddit poster, think you know better?
Huh, isn’t $80 per barrel the exact price that oil companies said oil needed to be for investing in Trump’s Venezuela shit to be financially worth the investment?
and that’s exactly what producers are willing to sell for and consumers are willing to pay for august delivery. see my point? how many spec traders do you think have been holding back supply on anchored ships trying to sell into higher prices that are now not coming? do you have access to ship gps data? traders do.
Did you consider that he is a random smug redditor commenting from possibly his couch with potato chip debris on his chest, and that counters all of it?
Japan and the US are actively shorting futures in order to calm prices. There's a lot more emotions and algos trading on buzzwords in the market then "sophisticated" Future traders
I never indicated that I am smarter than the traders and do truly believe in people that put their money where their mouth is. I am genuinely here to learn, how these things accounted for.
They have information that’s not available to the public that they use to profit from. That’s insider trading and how they bought low before every time Trump said or did something antagonistic to Iran and sold high and shorted before the president TACOed on Iran.
Make a deal, rip it up immediately and ask for more. If you don’t like it, talk to the lawyers. I have a feeling it’ll be the original 300 billion (plus another 300 billion in assets that can’t be so easily picked apart on US domestic media).
No. They are serious about Israel getting out of Lebanon though and it's obvious Israel is equally serious about continuing to create a buffer zone in Lebanon.
Israel has been creating a buffer zone in Lebanon by clearing villages and evicting the population with zero consideration of who those people are. People can debate it all they want, but it's hard to see how that aligns with western democratic values. Many of those people evicted are not Hezbollah supporters and in at least one case it was a Christian village. Iran sees all that and this is an opportunity to push us into a corner where we either support Israel when it's clearly not in our own self interest or we break with Israel. Based upon how a lot of people in the West have reacted to what has happened over there Iran has a decent chance of creating a wedge between the US and Israel over this.
The US will probably have to cut aid to Israel before the strait reopens at this point because Israel is run by hawks who can't seem to figure out when to quit.
The morons bombed Afghanistan for 20 years and lost, they dropped more bombs on Vietnam than WWII and lost, I'm sure it's different this time for all the Americans who believe themselves special.
Trump started a war, killed thousands of their citizens, wrecked billions of dollars of their infrastructure on a pointless, ego driven whim, so let's commit more war crimes. Surely, that will lower oil prices.
The market doesn't determine right and wrong friend. Also, gas prices are in no way lower right now ( and they won't be) then before the war started.
Trump is a fool, and so are the people who continue to worship him, which sadly is the bulk of the Republican party. I'd be ok with that, it's just that the sane fraction of America are shackled to those gibbering morons.
Crude is where it was in January and it’s almost flat year over year.
It takes a few weeks to hit the pump but I see gas around 3.50 where I live already and that’s pretty much where it’s been the last 5 years. Every region is its own local market.
Does it provide water to their factories and soldiers? You replied this same message to another post please move this conversation to that one or this one, not both.
I want to say that I hope you someday live in the world that you’re advocating for. But you’re a human being with your own hopes, dreams and aspirations. So I won’t do that.
I hope that some day you can see your fellow man on a similar light.
I don’t understand why, then, you are advocating for destroying the civilian infrastructure necessary for those aggrieved women to survive.
Which is fine. I don’t think we have anything else to discuss here.
Edit: at least those that would kill them for showing their hair are alleging some kind of crime, no matter how ridiculous. You’re advocating for their death for no reason and to serve no purpose.
If you threaten to destroy all water and electricity indiscriminately? Yeah, that's a war crime. You can say it over and over but it doesn't make it true.
He gets what you’re trying to say he’s just too busy citing Geneva conventions that Iran and the U.S. never ratified to claim we are committing war crimes lmao
I challenge you to ever find an instance where I supported or disregarded those Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure. I contend that you’ve invented a strange hypothetical regarding reddit at large that you’re reacting to, rather than dealing with other people at a personal level regarding their personal beliefs.
But I honestly thank you for taking the time to explain your comments. I was very confused.
You don’t have to challenge me with anything - the norm is to gloss over Muslim atrocities while putting a microscope on the US.
This thread is emblematic of that kind of “I’m confused” response the moment we bring up atrocities of a Muslim nation followed by “well the real issue is you and your personal commentary” concern trolling.
I can assure you that if the US intentionally targeted a civilian hotel as legit retaliation, we’d never hear the end of it and you’d be less concerned about “personal beliefs” - you’d just agree lmao.
You can pretend I hold whatever positions you like - it does not make it so.
To your point, I care about Americans committing war crimes because I am an American, it is being done in my name and on my behalf, and I pay for it with my tax dollars. I’d prefer that my government not blow up schools full of children, or commit other war crimes on purpose, thanks.
Lebanon was a big asking point from Iran, which is good that they care for their ally, but this is 100% on the USA, who can’t bring Israel under control from attacking just for the sake of elections.
When the 14 points were put forward, I knew that more than the uranium and the 300 billion dollar investment (which will cripple the chances of America repaying its debt), it will be Lebanon which will cause this deal to collapse or come close to collapse.
The MAGAs in my life are very unhappy about the idea of 300 billion in reparations to a country that they saw as the aggressor. Trump is seriously mis-stepping with his base here.
The narrative that LGBT voters shifted away from Trump is true, but the narrative that they shifted to Harris may be incorrect. Harris received dramatically fewer votes than Biden. Those polls don't address answer the question of how many LGBTQ people didn't vote who did in 2020. Which is very relevant when substantially, for the most part, people who voted in 2020 did not vote in 2024, and while Trump did receive slightly more votes in 2024, statistically it's not a significant change, while the change from Biden to "didn't vote" is dramatic.
> According to the exit poll, 8% of American voters identified as LGBT in 2024. That’s the highest share on record. The percentage of the electorate identifying as LGBT has doubled since Barack Obama was elected president in 2008, when it was 4%.
Guess you responded to me without reading the source I posted in the earlier comment.
That doesn't answer how many LGBT voters voted for Harris, Trump, or third-party/neither in 2020 vs 2024. "As a percentage, straight voters gave up on Harris more than queer voters." that is not supported by what you quoted. And my whole point is that "as a percentage" is misleading when in absolute terms Harris received fewer votes, the percentages tell the story you're trying to tell, but it's not a very good description of what happened.
Based on the amount of LGBT voters in the 2020 election, and the percentage that chose Biden, he got: 6,966,735 votes.
Based on the amount of LGBT voters in the 2024 election, and the percentage that chose Harris, she got: 10,479,629 votes.
3,512,894 more homosexuals chose Harris in 2024 over Biden in 2020 using the information from NBC Exit Polls.
This was really clear from the article, but I guess you needed to actually see the calculations. Feel free to correct me if any of my calculations are incorrect.
Something like $2000 per tax-paying American, given away as reparations for an unsanctioned war started and lost by the Trump Administration.
Also, you can play coy about the amount, but half a percent here and half a percent there adds up over time. Acting like it’s fine to add “just a little more” is what makes it snowball and is the exact sort of thinking that leads untold millions into unmanageable personal debts, the same thinking that bankrupted POTUS’s personal businesses.
Meanwhile the combination of tariffs and elevated energy prices have been a drag on the average American to the tune of something like $5000 in real incremental living costs since “Liberation Day”.
Everything costs more and the tax burden will now have to be even higher if the debt crisis is ever to be addressed.
… you do realise how big 300 billion dollars is right? Right?
Compare it with the GDP of most countries in the world just for a comparison, maybe then you will realise how big it is…
That combined with the other debts the kid-leader is taking on, will cause a bigger version of 2008, but when? No one knows
That isn't a good take. The US should never have bothered to negotiate without Israel and Lebanon at the table. Israel needs to be held to account for its own actions. They are not an American territory. The deal was always going to fall apart because it is not in Israel's interest to back down now, they want more territory and influence for the Zionist project.
Now is the best possible chance Israel have to rapidly expand their country through colonization so that they can become the undisputed power in the region and thus prevent attacks from starting in the first place and assimilate Arabs in the region to it's state philosophies. This is classic imperialist behaviour.
They let Witkoff and Kushner lead the first negotiations and they ended up killing the Iranian representatives. That's the negotiating attitude Israel would bring to the table, they're out for total, no compromise war
Do you think Iran isn’t aware of it? We should have learnt by now that they now have the world by the nuts, and this is their best chance to get Israel to stop their plan of building their greater Israel.
If they want Israel to stop, the best plan of action would be to get the world to make them stop, not just the USA. And let’s be honest, the USA is also supporting Israel openly at this point, even though the orange man says he is scolding the dictator
And that’s exactly why this deal is a farce to just get trumps markets up, the stock markets have become a goddamn joke at this point.
He also must have done all this to reduce oil prices just so the Fed can keep rates at the same rates instead of the actually needed hike that would have occurred if the oil prices were above 90 at that point.
Iran may not be a great country in terms of human rights, but right now, it’s ironically not the wrongdoer in this war, and it will do anything to ensure that Israel doesn’t get big enough to threaten it directly in the future
Gotta love it; the 250th anniversary of the country is facing the possibility of rolling blackouts and brownouts. Assuming we even acknowledge we are in an energy crisis that we were stupid enough to create.
Or, resource owning corporations will be fine on energy, which they're also exporting, while consumers will be f*'d on this like most everything that they already are? Corporate profits are at record highs. The working class pays for that.
There is an extreme imbalance of power in the US between workers and the capital class. I'm not sure what other evidence do we need to see that. It seems pretty apparent.
Not arguing with you OP or anything, just frustrated by the circumstances ...and the countless lies and lack of accountability it took to get here, and the enormous corruption that exists.
Things look increasingly bad, but the future is an opportunity for change. Will it be seized or fumbled yet again? It's hard to be optimistic with our track record.
The future promises nothing. But if you’re looking at the world purely from a view of who can supply themselves, the American continent is definitely the most self sufficient one. Europe and Asia could not handle the stress of a Hormuz closure, while America could get by with fracking and gulf oil
People who deep down want it to be true but won’t admit it to themselves and it manifests in them furiously upvoting things that validate that deep-seated desire they may not recognize in themselves.
> the 250th anniversary of the country is facing the possibility of rolling blackouts and brownouts.
Which country are you referring to? The closing of the Strait is not going to cause any sort of rolling blackouts and brownouts anytime in the near future, in the US.
Uh no....Only around 0.7% of the US electrical grid is powered via oil. And even then we aren't going to instantly run out of oil one day.
The current energy crisis is a boulder slowly rolling down hill, picking up speed. The effects will be gradual for the US.
For 99% of the US population it will be felt with rapid increased living costs across the board, particularly in food prices. It will also exhasterbate the rapidly accelerating economic downturn/job loss/etc
Grim? Yes, but not in the Mad Max sort of way you describe.
Negotiating with Trump backed officials must be the most maddening thing, they will tell you they want to make a deal and insist they are truthful, but you KNOW full fucking well they are lying through their teeth
It’s one thing to work with liars. That’s just an information problem. Liars can have patterns. It’s possible to find out what they’re lying about and work around/hedge it.
The ones that ignore their commitments are truly maddening. How to strike an agreement with officials knowing that anything in the agreement can be ignored at any time? The officials may be fully sincere. But their boss doesn’t care about anything in any agreement. It’s not even about lying. It’s about “nothing applies to me.”
The Iranians probably like it because it allows them to constantly remind the Trump envoys that they have no authority to speak. Everytime there's a sticking point they can ask Jared to go check with daddy. That way they may drag out the talks for as long as they want to.
The headline badly needs to be corrected. The powerless government of Iran is possibly heading to Switzerland as the IRGC, the people who actually hold power in Iran and the only ones who have coercive power, are closing the strait.
The central dumbness of mass media today is truly something to behold.
The government of Iran is not going to Geneva. Envoys are and they're going as negotiators for whomever is in power. Whether that is the Ajatollah or the IRGC or the elected government is really immaterial. The dumbness here is not the media. It's you.
No.... your incorrect the ajatollah hasn't been calling the shots for months now..... it's the IRGC we are fighting and they will never serrender as long as they live.
Okay real talk when the fuck is this shit going to end. I’ve been nervously teetering on whether this will lead to a global recession since March and I’m convinced by July or Halloween at the latest shit’s going to collapse altogether. This can’t keep going on forever. It has to end eventually
All this snip snapping is far worse than anything Michael Scott endured. You literally can’t keep up which is the up to date news. The mere back and forth essentially makes the strait closed, as no one in their mind would route their ships without insane risks, insurance is probably is thinking the same exact thing.
There's no incentive for Iran stop jerking the West around by the dog collar, they gotten everything they've wanted and then some, they can keep doing it because they know the West doesn't have the stomach for a ground war.
I feel like Iran is just doing this to keep the US from shooting. Say they'll negotiate, 'do it', proceed to do w/e they wanted before 'negotiations' and proclaim deal is off, but theyre open to negotiations again.
I suppose if one wants to ignore the reality that the US and Israel are continuously breaking the deal after whole cloth creating the conflict, then ok.
But when you have Israeli leaders publicly demanding “All of Lebanon must Burn” it’s kinda difficult to pin this on Iran.
Why do we care about the strait? From what I hear renewable energy is cheaper, especially in places that need it like Europe and Asia (1). Why don't we just build more renewable energy?
Why don't we get the gulf states (other than Iran) that can't sell their oil to build solar panels and wind turbines and transport them to ports on the red sea to Europe?
Hezbollah also needs to stop, and Iran needs to make that happen. There's no universe in which Hezbollah attacks Israel and Israel doesn't hit Lebanon. Israel needs to cut the crap, but taking hits from Hezbollah without responding is not part of the crap they need to cut.
They have less rights than Muslims and are under constant surveillance. If they can even get a passport, they have to leave a family member behind as collateral they will return.
I mean do you see reddit ever saying it’s ok the US backs Israel? Virtually every second comment is screaming about it.
But if we merely renamed Israel “Iran” and had it shoot directly into hotels, reddit would suddenly shrug and move on. It’s always ok when Islamists do it around here.
People comment about us giving money to Israel because we give money to Israel. We don't give money to Iran. No one is ignoring missiles hitting civilians. And in fact it's Israel who's been hitting civilian infrastructure mostly. So idk what you're talking about.
Lmao sure they are - this idea that we dgaf about Islamist civilian crimes even when we give them a shit ton of money extends past this conflict. See Pakistan. Wanna know who we’ve given money to longer that Israel? Oh yeah, Pakistan - and needless to say there were no marches against their genocide in the early 70’s the way there were against Vietnam or Israel. This is a common morally bankrupt hypocrisy within the west.
But the point is that reddit is super permissive when Islamists do literally anything - change that name to Israel, India, or the US, and suddenly it’s “genocide” and “we’re all against war crimes”. Tf you are.
I love how when I point out the Jewish people in every country outside of Israel in the Middle East has been either expelled or murdered, they just stop responding.
Israel is the only place you can exist and practice your faith as a Jewish people in the Middle East. They’ve already been genocided everywhere else.
Iran can demand Israel stop fighting hezbollah, and the US stop arming Israel. Chances of that happening are slim to none, but considering the alternative is Iran collecting millions in tolls, they’re coming out alright.
That's exactly what they are going for. Even if they fail to achieve their maximalist goals, they create incredible discord between the US and Israel at a time when support for Israel has plummeted among American voters.
Edit: they also know how the system works in liberal democracies. Both the US and Israel have pivotal elections in just a few months. Why would Iran give up its leverage now?
“They don’t control their airspace, 14 of their leaders are killed to the point where the current one won’t show his face, Tehran is bombed with impunity, inflation is out of control, water shortages always loom, their closure of the strait didn’t even touch all time highs of oil, and their supposed allies didn’t show up….
And Iran can stop arming Hezbollah it’s the same thing.
Considering we didn’t give up on Israel when we were embargoed in the 70’s I doubt they can expect we will now that we’re the number 1 oil exporter lol
Hey if Israel is going to kill Lebanese civilians and literally bulldoze their communities as they annex land they’re not much different than Hezbollah who wants to do the same to the Jewish people.
> dual-use infrastructure like power and water plants.
It's ridiculous that people have come to accept this bullshit framing. Dual use as a term was originally meant for things like microchips that could also be used in guided missiles, lab equipment that could be used to make chemical weapons, nuclear materials that could be weaponized, etc.
This new framing of anything that could be useful to a military (by virtue of a military being made up of humans who need things like water) is actually dangerous to peace globally.
We don't need to accept this framing and shouldn't. If we want to be a moral actor, that is.
lol it’s not “new” framing we bombed everything over 2 stories in world war 2 on both sides of the globe gtfo out of here trying to apply a new standard to a terrorist regime like the IRGC
Keep your morals - how many of our boys and girls would you put in coffins unnecessarily to maintain your fictional moral high ground
NameLips | a day ago
Every article I have read in the past 48 hours have been contradictory, even the ones coming out 30 minutes apart from each other.
Strait is open, strait is closed. Negotiations halted, negotiations continuing. Iran tolling ships, Iran agreeing to no tolls. The US giving Iran 300 billion, the US not going to give them a single cent. Tankers moving through the strait, mines in the strait closing all traffic. US blockade lifted, blockade still in effect.
I'm starting to think nobody actually knows what is going on.
Muroid | a day ago
>I'm starting to think nobody actually knows what is going on.
We, as a country, literally voted for “concepts of a plan” and are now shocked, shocked!, that every plan is still entirely conceptual even mid-execution.
To paraphrase the line, we’re getting what we voted for good and hard.
Yellowdog727 | a day ago
Not only "concepts of a plan" but also a career scammer, narcissist, and reality TV star who has to make everything a big dramatic show about how strong he is.
Even if you ignore how stupid the war is in the first place and his inability to get a lasting peace plan, a normal leader would involve all factions in peace talks and wait until there's actually a finished negotiation before making any type of announcement.
With this administration, every week there's a new big "announcement" despite being a complete lie or not involving one of the major parties conveniently timed around the markets closing/opening.
Unique_Yak4659 | a day ago
It feels like a reality Tv show with chaotic drama to keep us all hooked.
StunningCloud9184 | 20 hours ago
Yep people hated the calm presidency of biden.
Literally two things happened that got wall to wall news.
Afghanistan pullout and his debate.
Bay1Bri | 20 hours ago
I will always say those were coordinated efforts to undermine him. None of the many good things he did got coverage. The famously 24 hour News cycle managed to focus on a presidential debate for a month, barely losing focus when Trump literally got shot on the head. That story lasted less than a week, and right back to November having a bad debate (but little focus on how bad Trump also did in the debate. 🧐
StunningCloud9184 | 20 hours ago
Agreed. Felt like I was in crazyville
You would have a good jobs report but the news would harp how this will keep rates and inflation high.
If you had a bad one they would say the economy and jobs were in trouble.
Nary a mention of the largest infrastructure bill or green new deal. lots on striking down student loan forgiveness or every senior pharmacy capped at 2k for meds or insulin at 35$ or how hes getting billions back from rich people skipping out on taxes or hundreds of billions by allowing medicare to negotiate with pharma.
I saw some reports on journalist news celebrate when trump won thinking they would be getting that sweet money engagement they got from the first trump presidency. Only for their entire ratings to tank 50%. Turns out when you colluded and sanewash to help trump win people didnt want to watch you anymore.
Yellowdog727 | 4 hours ago
Afghanistan pullout was also just him following through with Trump's plan.
Trump organized a withdrawal and released 5000 Taliban prisoners right before the end of his first term
godmode-failed | 18 hours ago
That's because you're intentionally blind on the left eye.
Their explicit and systemic racism and sexism, euphemised as affirmative action earlier and as DEI nowadays, makes each and every Dem unelectable from the get-go.
And of course that doesn't even touch on the abuse and genital mutilation of minors under the LGBT banner.
StunningCloud9184 | an hour ago
Huh thats wild that dems are out performing 2024 by 10 points because trumps dei of drunk white guys and pedos makes everyone sick.
RuleOk481 | 7 hours ago
Oh I did not want to watch the sequels or second season; whatever you want to call it. Everything he touches gets destroyed.
MarcooseOnTheLoose | a day ago
Elect a clown, get a circus.
SuperspyAnon | a day ago
I'm stealing the fuck out of that line thank you very much.
MarcooseOnTheLoose | 23 hours ago
Haha. You’re a kind thief. It’s the short version of an old (Turkish?) proverb, something to the effect of, “when a jester sits in the throne, he doesn’t become a king, the palace becomes a circus”.
That’s exactly what we have. The greatest charlatan of all times was elected. The whole federal apparatus is now a circus. But wait, they knew it, we warned them, they voted for the clown anyway. Ugh.
a_library_socialist | 2 hours ago
> the greatest charlatan of all times
Please, you're giving too much credit to the senile bastard. He might be one of the most destructive, but for pure art of it I gotta give it to P T Barnum instead.
MarcooseOnTheLoose | 8 minutes ago
Hence the greatest con of all times. Nobody has reached his level of ‘success’. Not Madoff, not Bankman-Fried, not Hitler, not Napoleon, nobody. Surreal that those with the power and the votes to stop Trump, let him be so prolific. Surreal.
GoofManRoofMan | 17 hours ago
Do you think trump is the cause of the circus? Why is every branch of govt and his advisors/administration enabling all of these shenanigans?
thaway314156 | 10 hours ago
Are you AI that has a short context window? Remember DOGE and how the federal government got purged of competent people? And how his administration is now full of sycophantic yes-men/women chancers?
They know they'd be bottom-feeders instead of having titles like "presidential advisor", so they're going to put all their incompetent effort into maintaining the corrupt Trumpian system going, rather than the job of serving the public.
MarcooseOnTheLoose | 17 hours ago
Trump is the ring master.
GoofManRoofMan | 17 hours ago
You think that guy has the brain power to be master of anything? He’s the mouthpiece at best, the distraction/hate sponge most likely.
DerpsAndRags | 17 hours ago
Follow who is making money from the bullshit, and you'll have your answer.
GoofManRoofMan | 17 hours ago
So,.. tech billionaires and possibly oil guys? Honest question, who is making money from all this?
DerpsAndRags | 17 hours ago
Always check the stock market dips first, and find out who is investing. Then, check the constituents. Who were the campaign contributions?
SuperspyAnon | 22 hours ago
Ciest la vie. 🤷♂️
paupaupaupau | 21 hours ago
Elect a rapist, expect to get fucked
jammy-git | 21 hours ago
You guys are far too old to erect this clown.
fdesouche | a day ago
And we, non-Americans, did not vote at all but are paying some consequences anyway.
wbruce098 | a day ago
I voted for the female person of color, and am paying some consequences anyway. Because too many Americans stayed home in 2024.
a_library_socialist | 2 hours ago
I voted for De La Cruz as well, but sadly most people would not actually make a stand against this system.
Bay1Bri | 20 hours ago
Kinda like all the times America didn't start world wars but got dragged into them anyway.
MiniTab | a day ago
These dipshits can’t even fix a reflecting pool. They are as hell aren’t going to fix this self inflicted cluster fuck.
AysheDaArtist | 5 hours ago
I didn't vote for this, fuck anyone who did
Regit_Jo | a day ago
Well they’re not contradictory. It followed a series of events.
The MoU was signed. The United States lifted their blockade. Iran started allowing traffic through. Then clause one of the MoU was violated, when Israel continued operations in Lebanon. So Iran, who fought hard for clause 1, said they will not be able to comply with their obligations if clause 1 is not fulfilled. Clause 1 explicitly states the end of military operations in Lebanon. The United States negotiated on behalf of Israel without Israel’s consent, however the United States should be able to guarantee this clause because of its leverage over Israel as its guarantor of regional security.
We will see how things move but this was an obvious obstacle of the MoU, and there is probably still hope from the American side that Iran will allow Israeli aggression against Hezbollah to slide. Ultimately, the permanence of peace talks relies on what happens with Israel and Hezbollah.
Distinct-Response907 | a day ago
Not certain of this leverage over Israel. The administration has already said Israel can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants to, and Israel has not really concerned itself with anyone else’s opinion concerning their military operations. Netanyahu got what he wanted, namely direct US air and naval help against Iran, and will now proceed to do whatever he feels necessary. Not only does Iran have the upper hand in negotiations, but the main ally of the US is totally out of control. Trumps mess is spectacularly huge.
TheWorldofScience | a day ago
Trump vastly overestimated his influence with Netanyahu. It should not surprise us as he clearly has a personality disorder that causes grandiose thinking.
All those years he was in real estate using the fortune he inherited from his father other people went along with whatever he wanted because of his fortune.
Now as president he gets angry that he doesn’t get the same control so he uses the government to try to punish people who are not obsequious.
But he is in a tough spot with Israel because Congress holds the cards in this relationship - not the Presidency.
Flimsy_Category_9369 | a day ago
You bring ip a good point about Congress and Netanyahu knows that next year there will be a less Israel friendly congress
ItsMeSlinky | a day ago
Yeah, but unfortunately, the influence of AIPAC and the Israel lobby holds sway over both parties to an alarming degree. It's one of the few times where you can, in fact, say both parties are the same, because the mainstream elements of both parties have proven repeatedly they will not denounce or cut off military support for Israel.
And now Congress is passing laws basically making it illegal to cut off military support to Israel. It's absolutely insane.
Regit_Jo | a day ago
The United States has diplomatic leverage over Israel, and military leverage. They obviously provide them with military aid, and work in concert with Israel’s intelligence agencies, but what’s more important is that if the UN drafts a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire, and the US does not veto such a resolution, the security council could issue arms embargoes, sanctions, (if they were passed) that would economically isolate Israel.
This is the leverage the US has over Israel. It’s similar to the leverage it has over Iran regarding Iran’s nuclear program, the leverage that they used to get Iran to agree to the JCPOA.
NameLips | a day ago
It is reasonable to treat the US and Israel as a single unit because they are allies in this conflict. But Israel seems intent on following their own agenda regardless of what the US says. And we seem unwilling to put conditions on our unconditional military support of Israel.
The whole thing is a mess. Who could have guessed peace in the middle east would be so difficult?
Such_Radio_9152 | a day ago
> Who could have guessed peace in the middle east would be so difficult?
With an "ally" as belligerent as them, is it any wonder why
magikatdazoo | 22 hours ago
No it isn't reasonable to pretend Israel is a US puppet administration. It's also unreasonable to believe the IRGC and Hezbollah should be able to conduct their campaign of terror without response.
Miserable-Track-2545 | 13 hours ago
Remind us again, who started the war by launching suprise attacks in the middle of negotiations?
Regit_Jo | a day ago
It is reasonable but that doesn’t mean that the American executive administration is interested in isolating themselves from the legislative branch by strong arming Israel into complying with clause 1. All of this is about the carrot for Iran and the stick for Israel. Will Iran chase the carrot of economic relief before the United States uses the stick against Israel in order finish the conflict. That is our limbo.
nastywillow | a day ago
So we're all being held hostage by two groups of armed fucking crazy fanatics bad as each other.
Well that's lovely, bloody lovely.
hungryhungrynippos | a day ago
Looks like you're getting tripped up on language and technicalities. My understanding:
> Strait is open, strait is closed.
The straight was "open" but difficult to pass. Think, "We won't fire missiles at you, but there are still all those mines to worry about. So you should probably hold tight until we finish removing them."
> Iran tolling ships, Iran agreeing to no tolls.
The MOU says:
"The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz."
The argument was that "applicable international law" means Iran cannot impose tolls on international waterways. So Iran according to the MOU says they can't charge "tolls".
The way out of that is by calling the tolls "fees" and saying you provided a service for our charges (this explains the phrase "maritime services" above in the MOU). This allows Iran to charge money for passage of the straight while everyone agrees Iran's not allowed to charge "tolls".
> The US giving Iran 300 billion, the US not going to give them a single cent.
Again, from the MOU:
"The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
The US developing a development plan worth $300 billion doesn't mean the US is paying for it, so Trumpers will argue this doesn't commit the US to spending anything. The US can form a coalition of gulf states that invest $300 billion in the plan, and if they do, they're not paying a cent.
Non Trumpers will say, "yeah, well, what if the gulf states don't want to commit $300 billion to a plan they didn't agree to that gives money to a country that was just destroying their infrastructure?" That money's gotta come from somewhere, and it's hard to imagine where else that money would come from other than the US in that circumstance.
>mines in the strait closing all traffic
You may have misread titles like the one from this post (saving you a click, the title is, "Hormuz disruption will continue until 80 mines blocking route are cleared. Tanker owner trade body says centre of strait will stay shut for ‘some time’, and vessels forced to hug Omani coast risk running aground.") Note: at the time this article was written, Iran had not yet walked away from the deal due to Israel's attacks.
Hormuz traffic was "disrupted" and will continue to be disrupted because the whole straight isn't open, the center part of the strait is mined. But the strait of Hormuz wasn't "closed", because ships could still circumvent the mines by taking a different route near the Omani shoreline.
So at the time of the article, the state of Hormuz traffic was "it's open, but disrupted due to mines".
thaway314156 | 10 hours ago
Iran is probably aware that the $300B promise is a bag of shit as any Trump promise...
IIRC before he was just some sleazy "businessman" and not a sleazy president, he got to be the guest of honor of some charity event because he promised to donate to them. The event finished, and the donation never showed up.
Fragrant_Lobster_917 | 3 hours ago
On the other states funding it... it sounds like Mexico is paying for it.
ap1618 | a day ago
Flooding the zone with shit
junesix | a day ago
They know they are working with a counterparty that doesn’t honor promises, contracts, or agreements. So why should they operate any differently?
This is to be expected when all parties are unreliable actors.
weiistone | a day ago
Schrodinger's strait
What_A_Weak | a day ago
I think its important to also keep in mind that Donald Trump raped children and is causing chaos on purpose to distract, while enriching himself. No need to make sense of it.
Fuddle | a day ago
There is a website somewhere that shows you live traffic in the area, that is the only source you need.
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com
NameLips | a day ago
Interesting. A quick search says the average ships per day through Hormuz prior to the war was 100 to 200. But that site says normal daily average is 60. It also lists traffic as restricted, though it also says traffic is 90% of expected normal.
sliken | 22 hours ago
Thats all you need bro. Trust
Not_A_Doctor_redux | a day ago
Israel is desperate for America to go to war for it: America has to fund the war and America has to put forth troops. That's insanity.
MrFyxet99 | a day ago
“There will come a time when the rich own all the media and it will be impossible for the public to make an informed decision”
-Albert Einstein 1949
snoogins355 | a day ago
We have entered into The Office politics "snip snap snip snap snip snap" diplomacy
Impressive_Oaktree | a day ago
What we do know is that Trump will announce an almost or done deal next week.
Rick_AssPounda | a day ago
It's intentional to work the markets
mpbh | a day ago
Straight up 1984 shit. Narrative is more important than truth.
ensui67 | a day ago
The capital markets know. They knew since April. It’s very telling.
Julio_Ointment | a day ago
I mean, gestures wildly at the White House
BuckingWilde | a day ago
Tbh it tracks for all the other market manipulation tactics used thus far by this current administration
ThePirateKing01 | a day ago
Are you saying firing every non-sycophant of the US government and world most powerful military would cause disruption and confusion???
Fuck, color me shocked. Now don’t mind me, just going to go drink some green algae-paint water from the reflecting pool like the god damn patriot I am 🇺🇸 🦅 🧨
viewerno20883 | a day ago
Congratulations. You can finally peak behind the curtain and see that truly no one knows what the f is going on and everyone is playing catch up with their agenda/motives.
Additional_Froyo | a day ago
Snip snap snip snap
LA_search77 | a day ago
Iran knows what's going on with global oil reserves. They know when the US midterms are. They are well aware of Donald's personality disorders, dementia, and other health problems. They will be the first to stop a peace deal at any violation, making the Clown Show beg for forgiveness. This is the current state of the United States of America; it's going to be months of repeated humiliation.
Isosorbide | a day ago
Good. The MAGAs in my life are starting to become unhappy with Dear Leader. They just need a little bit more of a push to see the truth about the shit head they elected. They're so close.
chuckles11 | a day ago
Anyone with a narcissist parent can tell you they will never, ever admit to doing anything wrong.
actuallyacatmow | a day ago
The script flips with delusion - I've heard plenty of them start to use phrases like 'we're just not focusing on politics anymore-'. They'll just quietly pretend that they never really supported this adminstration in the first place as it goes down in flames.
DICKPICDOUG | a day ago
Yeah, like almkst every republican claims to have never supported G.W, but most of them have to be lying
serpentjaguar | 21 hours ago
And the sad thing is that the smarter they are, the better they'll be at coming up with reasons why they weren't wrong to support Trump.
FlyingBishop | a day ago
At this point it's looking a lot more like Congress than Trump is at fault. I mean, Trump is incompetent to be sure, and if he lead just a little bit this would have never been a problem, but Congress needs to step in and cut off Israel. And there's bipartisan support for giving Israel a blank check.
Isosorbide | 22 hours ago
Isn’t Israel a major contributor of political funds to the US? Congress would never bite the hand that bribes them
FlyingBishop | 22 hours ago
The US support of Israel has more to do with the Evangelical Christian lobby than the Israel lobby.
SituationSouth5955 | 21 hours ago
Who do you think convinced evangelical Christian’s to support the Israeli state so hard?
LA_search77 | 22 hours ago
Not so sure about that. I remember someone talking about their conversation with a GOP lawmaker (Dems have a similar problem). They were discussing US policy issues, and even on that, the Congressman plainly said "I'll have to check with my AIPAC guy." It's well known that just about every member of Congress has a dedicated AIPAC rep, and everything must be approved by them. It's not just the money they give, it's how much they will spend if someone steps out of line.
VivianneCrowley | 6 hours ago
[ Removed by Reddit ]
Ok_Eagle_3079 | a day ago
Can you tell us more?
Isosorbide | 22 hours ago
Sure, what specifically are you curious about
ItGradAws | a day ago
Problematically, they can push a depression BUT the problems gonna show up at their doorstep if the US really wants to. The willingness of boots on the ground is low but if push comes to shove the regime will have big problems domestically if land starts being ceded
LA_search77 | a day ago
Boots on the ground would be a blood bath for the United States. Sure Iran might temporarily lose control of some mountain areas... But holding on to those pyrrhic gains would not be sustainable.
ItGradAws | a day ago
There would be losses but the full might of the US military would stomp them hard. This isn’t Vietnam where they can move supply lines blindly. The regime would be having an existential crisis almost immediately. They themselves would have tremendous trouble holding onto their stranglehold of the country. Sure, civil war and cells will drag it out but they will not be able to hold onto their country
LA_search77 | a day ago
Netanyahu burner account...
impossiblefork | 14 hours ago
The leadership are civilians. Unless they are illegally targeted, they will be alive once the war is over.
If they have popular support, they will then end up back in leadership positions.
AK_Panda | 2 hours ago
If competent US military leadership was in full charge of that? Sure.
But you have to be realistic. This version of the US declared war on Iran with 1 carrier in the area and no preparation of regional forces for the escalation.
No other iteration of the US would have ever been so stupid.
There is no reason to believe that if this US decided to launch a land invasion, it would do so with any more intelligence, preparation, planning or foresight.
If US military leadership had actual leverage, this whole war would have either been done differently, or not at all.
Given those conditions, I doubt Trump could achieve what Bush did in Iraq. Especially as Iran is geographically harder to invade and is better prepared.
tpounds0 | a day ago
Already the most unpopular war in the last century, and you think having more American casualties would help?
People would die taking those mountains, and people would continue to die maintaining the areas we took over.
ItGradAws | a day ago
It wouldn’t be about popularity if they forced their hand, it would be about global economic stability and they wouldn’t have any choice at that point.
tpounds0 | a day ago
Are we going to deploy in Iran for 20 years?
What stops them from closing the strait the minute we leave?
Why would this be any different than Afganistan?
ItGradAws | a day ago
Things for the future but the regime likely won’t be around anymore
hungryhungrynippos | 18 hours ago
> Things for the future
Lol what's that supposed to mean? You're just gonna disregard the future ramifications of your choices? That's how we ended up here in the first place. Let's learn from that.
AK_Panda | 2 hours ago
It'd take at least 6 months, in not a year to get a full invasion force in place. It'd also require securing political acceptance from neighbouring countries where that build up would take place (unless you think a solely amphibious invasion of Iran is plausible lol).
And unlike Iraq, US invasion forces will likely be under fire and drone strikes for the entire time during that build up.
Even then, you could see Iran decide to blow the oil infrastructure in the ME at any time if it feels its going down anyway in order to worsen the situation for the US.
Turns out the time to prepare for invasion was before starting the war. Not after.
musafir6 | a day ago
I sometimes wonder who is more impulsive. The president of US or the investors, who were celebrating the deal and brought the oil futures down to $75 considering the fact that it would take months to get the oil flowing “normally” from the the strait.
unobtrusiveaffluence | a day ago
i think you may underestimate the sophistication of futures traders. because i think you missed the part where futures are contracts for FUTURE delivery. you seriously think they don’t know what you, a random reddit poster, think you know better?
Pleasant-Radio5771 | a day ago
August contracts for Brent are at $80.
Traders in general, are wildly optimistic and backwardation can be a real issue.
HostileCakeover1 | a day ago
Huh, isn’t $80 per barrel the exact price that oil companies said oil needed to be for investing in Trump’s Venezuela shit to be financially worth the investment?
Suspicious_Place1270 | a day ago
futures change all the time, i would not rely on that coincidence
3_Thumbs_Up | 15 hours ago
I hope you're enjoying all that free money.
unobtrusiveaffluence | a day ago
and that’s exactly what producers are willing to sell for and consumers are willing to pay for august delivery. see my point? how many spec traders do you think have been holding back supply on anchored ships trying to sell into higher prices that are now not coming? do you have access to ship gps data? traders do.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Did you consider that he is a random smug redditor commenting from possibly his couch with potato chip debris on his chest, and that counters all of it?
musafir6 | a day ago
Thats rude?
Or a random smart enough person to understand macro economics but not highly involved in the oil industry trading but willing to learn?
illiter-it | a day ago
I wonder if economists wonder why no one likes them
musafir6 | a day ago
I wonder who doesn’t like economists. They are theorists. People usually don’t like traders
resuwreckoning | a day ago
You’re calling the entire gamut of investors who do this for a living as “impulsive” in order to make some equivalence with Trump.
Maybe that’s more emblematic of your commentary.
unobtrusiveaffluence | a day ago
i did. it’s just for sport.
Organic-Ad-7105 | a day ago
Japan and the US are actively shorting futures in order to calm prices. There's a lot more emotions and algos trading on buzzwords in the market then "sophisticated" Future traders
musafir6 | a day ago
I understand that, I know they have access to lot of information than we do & are much smarter too.
But please enlighten me on why risk management (across the board, including AI investments) is tilted towards very optimistic side?
unobtrusiveaffluence | a day ago
it isn’t. it’s tilted towards truth finding. i sit in rooms with people who trade this stuff professionally. you don’t know more than they do.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Maybe they have info you don’t and have the means to assess risk better than you do, so they put their money where their mouth is?
musafir6 | a day ago
I never indicated that I am smarter than the traders and do truly believe in people that put their money where their mouth is. I am genuinely here to learn, how these things accounted for.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Yeah you sound genuine lmao.
Fine_Project9388 | a day ago
So they’re insider trading. Got it.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Or they literally understand the market better than perpetually aggrieved Redditors.
Fine_Project9388 | a day ago
They have information that’s not available to the public that they use to profit from. That’s insider trading and how they bought low before every time Trump said or did something antagonistic to Iran and sold high and shorted before the president TACOed on Iran.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
I mean that and they’re not aggreivedly whining online about everything and instead actually working on their jobs.
Sometimes not being perpetually aggrieved frees up time to do other things that leads to success.
Shocking for Redditors, I’m sure.
Fine_Project9388 | 23 hours ago
Am I a Redditor because I’m on Reddit?
resuwreckoning | 22 hours ago
If you participate in that narrative then sure. 👍
creosote____ | a day ago
Yeah not only do they know better, they can see into the future. Plus line always go up, or go down in this case.
dwninswamp | a day ago
I think they read “the art of the deal”.
Make a deal, rip it up immediately and ask for more. If you don’t like it, talk to the lawyers. I have a feeling it’ll be the original 300 billion (plus another 300 billion in assets that can’t be so easily picked apart on US domestic media).
goodbodha | a day ago
No. They are serious about Israel getting out of Lebanon though and it's obvious Israel is equally serious about continuing to create a buffer zone in Lebanon.
Israel has been creating a buffer zone in Lebanon by clearing villages and evicting the population with zero consideration of who those people are. People can debate it all they want, but it's hard to see how that aligns with western democratic values. Many of those people evicted are not Hezbollah supporters and in at least one case it was a Christian village. Iran sees all that and this is an opportunity to push us into a corner where we either support Israel when it's clearly not in our own self interest or we break with Israel. Based upon how a lot of people in the West have reacted to what has happened over there Iran has a decent chance of creating a wedge between the US and Israel over this.
The US will probably have to cut aid to Israel before the strait reopens at this point because Israel is run by hawks who can't seem to figure out when to quit.
mXyder | 18 hours ago
Is it really so hard to just say "genocide and ethnic cleansing"
"Western democratic values" is a joke
Worth-Original3825 | a day ago
The morons bombed Afghanistan for 20 years and lost, they dropped more bombs on Vietnam than WWII and lost, I'm sure it's different this time for all the Americans who believe themselves special.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Or we just knock out all of their water and electricity and they can go back to riding canals and eating dates
pasterhatt | a day ago
Trump started a war, killed thousands of their citizens, wrecked billions of dollars of their infrastructure on a pointless, ego driven whim, so let's commit more war crimes. Surely, that will lower oil prices.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Oil prices are about where they were before the Iran war so I assume the market just doesn’t care that much about what Iran can do :) .
pasterhatt | a day ago
The market doesn't determine right and wrong friend. Also, gas prices are in no way lower right now ( and they won't be) then before the war started.
Trump is a fool, and so are the people who continue to worship him, which sadly is the bulk of the Republican party. I'd be ok with that, it's just that the sane fraction of America are shackled to those gibbering morons.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Gas was 3.50 where I am and that par with with January
Futures are under $70 a barrel which is where it was in January
pasterhatt | 9 hours ago
US average prices are up 1.70.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?f=m&n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg
I'm glad you have a magical mystery had station. No one else seems too.
Open_Pollution_8038 | 6 hours ago
Crude is where it was in January and it’s almost flat year over year.
It takes a few weeks to hit the pump but I see gas around 3.50 where I live already and that’s pretty much where it’s been the last 5 years. Every region is its own local market.
Newtohonolulu18 | a day ago
Well, that would be a war crime. So I hope we don’t do that. Check Article 54 of additional protocol I of the Geneva conventions.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
False dual use infrastructure is fair game under Geneva and always has been
pasterhatt | a day ago
Water infrastructure is dual use?
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Does it provide water to their factories and soldiers? You replied this same message to another post please move this conversation to that one or this one, not both.
I won’t reply to a follow up here
pasterhatt | a day ago
Ok, you just justified a gaza like leveling of Iran. Everything is dual use under your definition.
I won't reply to a reply here.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Got it will carry on in the other message
Newtohonolulu18 | a day ago
Incorrect, if the civilian use predominates. Military infrastructure is fair game, civilian infrastructure is not.
All the war crimes in the world will not fix the mess that Trump created, but your support for them shows the world the type of person you are.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
We never ratified the additional protocols and… neither did Iran so not a war crime for either country and that’s a fact
Newtohonolulu18 | a day ago
I want to say that I hope you someday live in the world that you’re advocating for. But you’re a human being with your own hopes, dreams and aspirations. So I won’t do that.
I hope that some day you can see your fellow man on a similar light.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
I do live in that world today and we’re going to vanquish the people (IRGC terrorists) who behead women for the grave crime of showing their hair.
Newtohonolulu18 | a day ago
I don’t understand why, then, you are advocating for destroying the civilian infrastructure necessary for those aggrieved women to survive.
Which is fine. I don’t think we have anything else to discuss here.
Edit: at least those that would kill them for showing their hair are alleging some kind of crime, no matter how ridiculous. You’re advocating for their death for no reason and to serve no purpose.
Johnny-Unitas | a day ago
You're arguing with a troll or a bot. One month old account with 1500 posts and comments, blocked history and low karma.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
If their military uses it and wraps themselves in civilians it just is what it is. No way around it.
There’s not anything left to discuss.
kafktastic | a day ago
I don’t think Hegseth could hit a canal if he fell out of a boat in Venice
Ch1Guy | a day ago
Then we can send our military leaders and president Trump to the Hague for violations of the Geneva convention and crimes against humanity.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Oh no The Hague I’m so afraid of their army whatever will I do
It’s not a war crime to attack dual use infrastructure
RashmaDu | a day ago
Ah yes, war crimes to end a war of aggression you started without taking a beat to think about whether you could win. Always a good time
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
It’s not a war crime if we attack dual use infrastructure sorry you can say it over and over but it doesn’t make it true
RashmaDu | a day ago
If you threaten to destroy all water and electricity indiscriminately? Yeah, that's a war crime. You can say it over and over but it doesn't make it true.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
If that water is supplying their military or factories it’s not a war crime and that’s a fact.
RashmaDu | a day ago
So every single water and electricity plant in Iran is dual use?
Thank god this administration is known for showing restraints and not casually brushing aside war crimes.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
We can attack the ones that are dual use and leave the ones that are not? sounds like we’re in agreement?
RashmaDu | a day ago
You were the one arguing for the bombing of every single water and electricity plant in Iran, so I don't think so no
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Got it so we’ll just bomb the dual use ones, in agreement sounds like
pasterhatt | a day ago
Water infrastructure is dual use?
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Does it provide water to their factories and soldiers?
pasterhatt | a day ago
That's justifying leveling everything. Housing? Soldiers can use it. Food production, same. Hospitals? Can't have those soldiers getting treatment.
It's psychopathic, and illegal.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Iran could surrender it doesn’t have to be that way
pasterhatt | 9 hours ago
Why would they, they won.
Open_Pollution_8038 | 6 hours ago
Their supreme leader position is taking applications!
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Yes but remember now thats unfair - this is an equivalent power to the US, so you cannot use tactics that make them feel less than that.
The only time that’s ok to do is in reverse.
Didn’t you read the reddit memo?
Newtohonolulu18 | a day ago
I’m not sure what you’re trying to say. But generally, countries should avoid committing war crimes.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Not if you’re a Muslim group and it’s Reddit. Then we seem to think it’s payback or some absurdity.
Like notice how Irans response is to fling drones at hotels in Dubai and reddit is like “that’s what you get”?
Totally, it’s all about the civilians. Don’t tell on yourselves this transparently lmao.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
He gets what you’re trying to say he’s just too busy citing Geneva conventions that Iran and the U.S. never ratified to claim we are committing war crimes lmao
Newtohonolulu18 | a day ago
I read and reread your message - I have no idea what you’re trying to say.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
What’s confusing? Iran is targeting civilian infrastructure in the gulf states and Reddit’s response to that being war crimes is crickets.
So yeah, you’re all fine with war crimes when it’s a Muslim nation doing it. As usual.
Newtohonolulu18 | a day ago
I challenge you to ever find an instance where I supported or disregarded those Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure. I contend that you’ve invented a strange hypothetical regarding reddit at large that you’re reacting to, rather than dealing with other people at a personal level regarding their personal beliefs.
But I honestly thank you for taking the time to explain your comments. I was very confused.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
You don’t have to challenge me with anything - the norm is to gloss over Muslim atrocities while putting a microscope on the US.
This thread is emblematic of that kind of “I’m confused” response the moment we bring up atrocities of a Muslim nation followed by “well the real issue is you and your personal commentary” concern trolling.
I can assure you that if the US intentionally targeted a civilian hotel as legit retaliation, we’d never hear the end of it and you’d be less concerned about “personal beliefs” - you’d just agree lmao.
Stop telling on yourselves.
Newtohonolulu18 | a day ago
Oh, fuck off.
You can pretend I hold whatever positions you like - it does not make it so.
To your point, I care about Americans committing war crimes because I am an American, it is being done in my name and on my behalf, and I pay for it with my tax dollars. I’d prefer that my government not blow up schools full of children, or commit other war crimes on purpose, thanks.
Extension-Put309 | a day ago
Lebanon was a big asking point from Iran, which is good that they care for their ally, but this is 100% on the USA, who can’t bring Israel under control from attacking just for the sake of elections.
When the 14 points were put forward, I knew that more than the uranium and the 300 billion dollar investment (which will cripple the chances of America repaying its debt), it will be Lebanon which will cause this deal to collapse or come close to collapse.
Isosorbide | a day ago
The MAGAs in my life are very unhappy about the idea of 300 billion in reparations to a country that they saw as the aggressor. Trump is seriously mis-stepping with his base here.
Extension-Put309 | a day ago
But they will vote for him even then.
Imagine, members of the LGBTQ and immigrants voted for him in 2024, despite his epic (lol) first term and the Project 2025 blueprint.
And the margin with which he got beaten by Biden was close
tpounds0 | a day ago
> Harris’ performance among LGBT voters was stronger than that of any Democratic candidate in the last five presidential elections.
LGBT voters, a larger share of the electorate than ever, shift away from Trump Nov. 6, 2024 By Patrick J. Egan
Saying technically true things (1+ LGBT person voted for Trump) that is framed as you did is pure misinformation.
FlyingBishop | a day ago
The narrative that LGBT voters shifted away from Trump is true, but the narrative that they shifted to Harris may be incorrect. Harris received dramatically fewer votes than Biden. Those polls don't address answer the question of how many LGBTQ people didn't vote who did in 2020. Which is very relevant when substantially, for the most part, people who voted in 2020 did not vote in 2024, and while Trump did receive slightly more votes in 2024, statistically it's not a significant change, while the change from Biden to "didn't vote" is dramatic.
tpounds0 | a day ago
The 2024 voting demographic had the highest number of queer voters recorded.
As a percentage, straight voters gave up on Harris more than queer voters.
FlyingBishop | 22 hours ago
Source?
tpounds0 | 21 hours ago
> According to the exit poll, 8% of American voters identified as LGBT in 2024. That’s the highest share on record. The percentage of the electorate identifying as LGBT has doubled since Barack Obama was elected president in 2008, when it was 4%.
Guess you responded to me without reading the source I posted in the earlier comment.
FlyingBishop | 20 hours ago
That doesn't answer how many LGBT voters voted for Harris, Trump, or third-party/neither in 2020 vs 2024. "As a percentage, straight voters gave up on Harris more than queer voters." that is not supported by what you quoted. And my whole point is that "as a percentage" is misleading when in absolute terms Harris received fewer votes, the percentages tell the story you're trying to tell, but it's not a very good description of what happened.
tpounds0 | 20 hours ago
Here is my spreadsheet, titled Data to prove FlyingBishop Wrong.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ieXXC-v54jdaT7PvMhN1CPQ_clFNSuujeI_WftlIGH8/edit?usp=sharing
But to give you the results:
Based on the amount of LGBT voters in the 2020 election, and the percentage that chose Biden, he got: 6,966,735 votes.
Based on the amount of LGBT voters in the 2024 election, and the percentage that chose Harris, she got: 10,479,629 votes.
3,512,894 more homosexuals chose Harris in 2024 over Biden in 2020 using the information from NBC Exit Polls.
This was really clear from the article, but I guess you needed to actually see the calculations. Feel free to correct me if any of my calculations are incorrect.
CollaWars | a day ago
300 billion is less than half a percent of US debt lol
Extension-Put309 | a day ago
Combined with the BBB that is being implemented, that will definitely pack a punch.
And no one’s likes spending on stuff they could have avoided
clvnmllr | 21 hours ago
Something like $2000 per tax-paying American, given away as reparations for an unsanctioned war started and lost by the Trump Administration.
Also, you can play coy about the amount, but half a percent here and half a percent there adds up over time. Acting like it’s fine to add “just a little more” is what makes it snowball and is the exact sort of thinking that leads untold millions into unmanageable personal debts, the same thinking that bankrupted POTUS’s personal businesses.
Meanwhile the combination of tariffs and elevated energy prices have been a drag on the average American to the tune of something like $5000 in real incremental living costs since “Liberation Day”.
Everything costs more and the tax burden will now have to be even higher if the debt crisis is ever to be addressed.
CollaWars | 20 hours ago
Fuck off with putting words in my mouth. Saying the the 300 billion will cripple the US repaying debt is just dumb
clvnmllr | 11 hours ago
Acting like it’s no big thing is what’s dumb. And you’ve done it again so I’m not putting words in your mouth, genius.
Extension-Put309 | 10 hours ago
… you do realise how big 300 billion dollars is right? Right?
Compare it with the GDP of most countries in the world just for a comparison, maybe then you will realise how big it is…
That combined with the other debts the kid-leader is taking on, will cause a bigger version of 2008, but when? No one knows
thrilled_to_be_there | a day ago
That isn't a good take. The US should never have bothered to negotiate without Israel and Lebanon at the table. Israel needs to be held to account for its own actions. They are not an American territory. The deal was always going to fall apart because it is not in Israel's interest to back down now, they want more territory and influence for the Zionist project.
Now is the best possible chance Israel have to rapidly expand their country through colonization so that they can become the undisputed power in the region and thus prevent attacks from starting in the first place and assimilate Arabs in the region to it's state philosophies. This is classic imperialist behaviour.
gatosaurio | a day ago
They let Witkoff and Kushner lead the first negotiations and they ended up killing the Iranian representatives. That's the negotiating attitude Israel would bring to the table, they're out for total, no compromise war
Extension-Put309 | a day ago
I still can’t believe they did that.
Imagine going there telling you want to stop the war and you decide “meh, bye bye”
And pull the trigger
Height of overconfidence in Kushner, which defined his first term too
Extension-Put309 | a day ago
Do you think Iran isn’t aware of it? We should have learnt by now that they now have the world by the nuts, and this is their best chance to get Israel to stop their plan of building their greater Israel.
If they want Israel to stop, the best plan of action would be to get the world to make them stop, not just the USA. And let’s be honest, the USA is also supporting Israel openly at this point, even though the orange man says he is scolding the dictator
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
Wiping out Israel from existence is only solution
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
Only option is North Korea, Russia and China together nuking Israel out of existence
1-Dollar-Doge-Coins | 23 hours ago
Your user name is so close to being what you actually want it to be.
Savings-Secretary-78 | a day ago
You can't have a deal without involving israel and Hezbollah, any peace deal in the region has to involve both of the parties
Extension-Put309 | a day ago
And that’s exactly why this deal is a farce to just get trumps markets up, the stock markets have become a goddamn joke at this point.
He also must have done all this to reduce oil prices just so the Fed can keep rates at the same rates instead of the actually needed hike that would have occurred if the oil prices were above 90 at that point.
Iran may not be a great country in terms of human rights, but right now, it’s ironically not the wrongdoer in this war, and it will do anything to ensure that Israel doesn’t get big enough to threaten it directly in the future
CyberSmith31337 | a day ago
Energy crisis right on schedule for July 4th.
Gotta love it; the 250th anniversary of the country is facing the possibility of rolling blackouts and brownouts. Assuming we even acknowledge we are in an energy crisis that we were stupid enough to create.
Jimbobsupertramp | a day ago
Eh I think that’s a tad hyperbolic.. BUT yeah we are headed (still and probably indefinitely imo) toward bad times.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
A tad? Lmao - even when oil hit an ATH during the GFC there weren’t rolling brownouts and blackouts.
Weaselpuss | a day ago
Realistically the US will be okay in terms of energy, but yeah it wouldn’t be good surely.
h4ms4ndwich11 | a day ago
Or, resource owning corporations will be fine on energy, which they're also exporting, while consumers will be f*'d on this like most everything that they already are? Corporate profits are at record highs. The working class pays for that.
There is an extreme imbalance of power in the US between workers and the capital class. I'm not sure what other evidence do we need to see that. It seems pretty apparent.
Not arguing with you OP or anything, just frustrated by the circumstances ...and the countless lies and lack of accountability it took to get here, and the enormous corruption that exists.
Things look increasingly bad, but the future is an opportunity for change. Will it be seized or fumbled yet again? It's hard to be optimistic with our track record.
Weaselpuss | 21 hours ago
The future promises nothing. But if you’re looking at the world purely from a view of who can supply themselves, the American continent is definitely the most self sufficient one. Europe and Asia could not handle the stress of a Hormuz closure, while America could get by with fracking and gulf oil
iAmTheWildCard | a day ago
We absolutely are not facing that. Who upvotes this garbage?
CollaWars | a day ago
This sub is pretty much identical to any front page sub now so you get that crowd
Jimbobsupertramp | a day ago
People who deep down want it to be true but won’t admit it to themselves and it manifests in them furiously upvoting things that validate that deep-seated desire they may not recognize in themselves.
Spider_pig448 | a day ago
Yeah, the US can just stop exporting oil and be just fine. It's Asia that will be seeing blackouts
ActivatingEMP | a day ago
US doesn't use oil for electricity. Gas shortages would be the thing if there is an oil crisis
DrQuestDFA | a day ago
Spot on, the electric grid will be fine but I pray for that poor SPR getting milked until it’s drier than the Sahara.
snoogins355 | a day ago
Can it actually go to zero or does it have a minimum level?
DrQuestDFA | a day ago
There is a minimum “cushion” of fuel needed for the facilities to properly operate.
jeremiah256 | a day ago
There’s a minimum but it’s practical, not a cushion in the sense we want to have a minimum vs we **have** to keep a minimum.
The oil at the bottom of the salt mines is sludge and there’s a possibility of collapse if lower than a certain level.
1-Dollar-Doge-Coins | 23 hours ago
> the 250th anniversary of the country is facing the possibility of rolling blackouts and brownouts.
Which country are you referring to? The closing of the Strait is not going to cause any sort of rolling blackouts and brownouts anytime in the near future, in the US.
Woogies | 19 hours ago
Uh no....Only around 0.7% of the US electrical grid is powered via oil. And even then we aren't going to instantly run out of oil one day.
The current energy crisis is a boulder slowly rolling down hill, picking up speed. The effects will be gradual for the US.
For 99% of the US population it will be felt with rapid increased living costs across the board, particularly in food prices. It will also exhasterbate the rapidly accelerating economic downturn/job loss/etc
Grim? Yes, but not in the Mad Max sort of way you describe.
Just_Candle_315 | a day ago
Negotiating with Trump backed officials must be the most maddening thing, they will tell you they want to make a deal and insist they are truthful, but you KNOW full fucking well they are lying through their teeth
junesix | a day ago
It’s one thing to work with liars. That’s just an information problem. Liars can have patterns. It’s possible to find out what they’re lying about and work around/hedge it.
The ones that ignore their commitments are truly maddening. How to strike an agreement with officials knowing that anything in the agreement can be ignored at any time? The officials may be fully sincere. But their boss doesn’t care about anything in any agreement. It’s not even about lying. It’s about “nothing applies to me.”
devliegende | 22 hours ago
The Iranians probably like it because it allows them to constantly remind the Trump envoys that they have no authority to speak. Everytime there's a sticking point they can ask Jared to go check with daddy. That way they may drag out the talks for as long as they want to.
Realanise1 | a day ago
The headline badly needs to be corrected. The powerless government of Iran is possibly heading to Switzerland as the IRGC, the people who actually hold power in Iran and the only ones who have coercive power, are closing the strait.
The central dumbness of mass media today is truly something to behold.
devliegende | 21 hours ago
The government of Iran is not going to Geneva. Envoys are and they're going as negotiators for whomever is in power. Whether that is the Ajatollah or the IRGC or the elected government is really immaterial. The dumbness here is not the media. It's you.
SuchDogeHodler | 20 hours ago
No.... your incorrect the ajatollah hasn't been calling the shots for months now..... it's the IRGC we are fighting and they will never serrender as long as they live.
devliegende | 12 hours ago
Who is calling the shots at the IRGC
WasabiComprehensive2 | a day ago
Okay real talk when the fuck is this shit going to end. I’ve been nervously teetering on whether this will lead to a global recession since March and I’m convinced by July or Halloween at the latest shit’s going to collapse altogether. This can’t keep going on forever. It has to end eventually
Nervous-Lock7503 | 22 hours ago
Same here. I have been waiting for this war to tank the market and burst the AI bubble along way.
FIFofNovember | 20 hours ago
End of June, 1 - 2 weeks if nothing is resolved firmly
ariukidding | 23 hours ago
All this snip snapping is far worse than anything Michael Scott endured. You literally can’t keep up which is the up to date news. The mere back and forth essentially makes the strait closed, as no one in their mind would route their ships without insane risks, insurance is probably is thinking the same exact thing.
Sturdily5092 | 22 hours ago
There's no incentive for Iran stop jerking the West around by the dog collar, they gotten everything they've wanted and then some, they can keep doing it because they know the West doesn't have the stomach for a ground war.
SuchDogeHodler | 20 hours ago
It's not stomach......it's liberal.....
FrostyWalrus2 | a day ago
I feel like Iran is just doing this to keep the US from shooting. Say they'll negotiate, 'do it', proceed to do w/e they wanted before 'negotiations' and proclaim deal is off, but theyre open to negotiations again.
5minArgument | a day ago
I suppose if one wants to ignore the reality that the US and Israel are continuously breaking the deal after whole cloth creating the conflict, then ok.
But when you have Israeli leaders publicly demanding “All of Lebanon must Burn” it’s kinda difficult to pin this on Iran.
ilikemyprivacytbt | a day ago
Why do we care about the strait? From what I hear renewable energy is cheaper, especially in places that need it like Europe and Asia (1). Why don't we just build more renewable energy?
Why don't we get the gulf states (other than Iran) that can't sell their oil to build solar panels and wind turbines and transport them to ports on the red sea to Europe?
CITATION
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
At this point I don’t understand what the Iranians want.
Hezbollah and Israel are going to continue fighting, there isn’t much either Iran or the U.S. can do about it.
The deal will go back because the alternative is we start bombing dual-use infrastructure like power and water plants.
UnluckyText | a day ago
US can cut off military aid to Israel.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
We won’t do that as long as Iran funds Hezbollah.
Silly_Mustache | a day ago
USA funded Israel way before Hezbollah existed.
FrankDrebinOnReddit | a day ago
Hezbollah also needs to stop, and Iran needs to make that happen. There's no universe in which Hezbollah attacks Israel and Israel doesn't hit Lebanon. Israel needs to cut the crap, but taking hits from Hezbollah without responding is not part of the crap they need to cut.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Ask yourself why there are no Jewish people living in the Middle East outside of Israel.
Silly_Mustache | 7 hours ago
There are jewish people living in Iran, and Israel bombed their synagogues.
Open_Pollution_8038 | 7 hours ago
15,000 out of 93,000,000 lmfao
They have less rights than Muslims and are under constant surveillance. If they can even get a passport, they have to leave a family member behind as collateral they will return.
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
Castrated eunuchs
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
You spend a lot of time thinking about Jewish penises don’t you?
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
Eww
resuwreckoning | a day ago
But that’s ok according to Reddit.
Orange_Tang | a day ago
But it's totally fine when the US backs Israel, the same US that isn't even a part of the region. Y'all are so hypocritical.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
I mean do you see reddit ever saying it’s ok the US backs Israel? Virtually every second comment is screaming about it.
But if we merely renamed Israel “Iran” and had it shoot directly into hotels, reddit would suddenly shrug and move on. It’s always ok when Islamists do it around here.
Orange_Tang | a day ago
People comment about us giving money to Israel because we give money to Israel. We don't give money to Iran. No one is ignoring missiles hitting civilians. And in fact it's Israel who's been hitting civilian infrastructure mostly. So idk what you're talking about.
resuwreckoning | a day ago
Lmao sure they are - this idea that we dgaf about Islamist civilian crimes even when we give them a shit ton of money extends past this conflict. See Pakistan. Wanna know who we’ve given money to longer that Israel? Oh yeah, Pakistan - and needless to say there were no marches against their genocide in the early 70’s the way there were against Vietnam or Israel. This is a common morally bankrupt hypocrisy within the west.
But the point is that reddit is super permissive when Islamists do literally anything - change that name to Israel, India, or the US, and suddenly it’s “genocide” and “we’re all against war crimes”. Tf you are.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
I love how when I point out the Jewish people in every country outside of Israel in the Middle East has been either expelled or murdered, they just stop responding.
Israel is the only place you can exist and practice your faith as a Jewish people in the Middle East. They’ve already been genocided everywhere else.
Mushroom5940 | a day ago
Iran can demand Israel stop fighting hezbollah, and the US stop arming Israel. Chances of that happening are slim to none, but considering the alternative is Iran collecting millions in tolls, they’re coming out alright.
BarkerBarkhan | a day ago
That's exactly what they are going for. Even if they fail to achieve their maximalist goals, they create incredible discord between the US and Israel at a time when support for Israel has plummeted among American voters.
Edit: they also know how the system works in liberal democracies. Both the US and Israel have pivotal elections in just a few months. Why would Iran give up its leverage now?
resuwreckoning | a day ago
“They don’t control their airspace, 14 of their leaders are killed to the point where the current one won’t show his face, Tehran is bombed with impunity, inflation is out of control, water shortages always loom, their closure of the strait didn’t even touch all time highs of oil, and their supposed allies didn’t show up….
….but that means their coming out alright”.
Lmao never change Reddit.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
And Iran can stop arming Hezbollah it’s the same thing.
Considering we didn’t give up on Israel when we were embargoed in the 70’s I doubt they can expect we will now that we’re the number 1 oil exporter lol
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
US is struggling due to shortage of oil
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
No struggle if I want gas I’ll buy it
Poor countries like Iran will be the ones that get hurt the worlds because Americans have more money to buy what’s left
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
America is a sinking ship
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Number 1 baby sucks to suck
hilterfilter1 | 18 hours ago
Number 1 in homelessness and drug addicts
Open_Pollution_8038 | 18 hours ago
Get angry more I don’t spend a second thinking about whatever shit hole your live in
hilterfilter1 | 18 hours ago
Whatever helps you sleep at night in a shit hole
DeepSpaceVixen | a day ago
Israel acts however it wants due in great part to the U.S. giving it free rein.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
It’s literally the same for Hezbollah and Iran. There’s no difference.
TripleH18 | a day ago
One is a nation arming and paying another nation. The other is a militant group. It’s not the same.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Hey if Israel is going to kill Lebanese civilians and literally bulldoze their communities as they annex land they’re not much different than Hezbollah who wants to do the same to the Jewish people.
KingfishingYoMama | a day ago
> dual-use infrastructure like power and water plants.
It's ridiculous that people have come to accept this bullshit framing. Dual use as a term was originally meant for things like microchips that could also be used in guided missiles, lab equipment that could be used to make chemical weapons, nuclear materials that could be weaponized, etc.
This new framing of anything that could be useful to a military (by virtue of a military being made up of humans who need things like water) is actually dangerous to peace globally.
We don't need to accept this framing and shouldn't. If we want to be a moral actor, that is.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
lol it’s not “new” framing we bombed everything over 2 stories in world war 2 on both sides of the globe gtfo out of here trying to apply a new standard to a terrorist regime like the IRGC
Keep your morals - how many of our boys and girls would you put in coffins unnecessarily to maintain your fictional moral high ground
KingfishingYoMama | a day ago
You're just arguing that war crimes are fair game. Fuck that shit.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
It’s not a war crime to bomb dual use infrastructure that’s a fact
Unfortunate for the civilians but hey the government of Iran could always surrender
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
Iran will launch invasion of Israel
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Yeah right after they cross a few other countries lmfao
That’s like hating the neighbor 4 houses down what losers
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
All the countries in the Middle East except Israel now support Iran
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
Ahh so the way it’s been since Israel was created sounds right
hilterfilter1 | 18 hours ago
That means they can help Iran in invasion of Israel
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
US military has been proved to be eunuch. So no chance against Iran.
Open_Pollution_8038 | a day ago
You think a lot about penises don’t you?
hilterfilter1 | a day ago
Why?
Charamei | 15 hours ago
Assuming English isn't your first language due to the weird word choice: the word you were looking for is 'impotent'.
hilterfilter1 | 14 hours ago
Yes English is not my first language and yes you found the right word.