U.S. debt suddenly draws weaker demand as $10 trillion must be rolled over this year amid Iran war. 'The bond market remains undefeated'

1242 points by Secure-Address4385 22 hours ago on reddit | 89 comments

Just_Candle_315 | 21 hours ago

And interest rates are going UP as a result of the new Iran war. Frightening to think, but there's no way this is going to be mathematically sustainable interest already consumes more than anything else now tack on a forever war?

nostrademons | 20 hours ago

It's sustainable if you assume the government can just print more money to cover the interest, indefinitely.

The value of that money will trend toward zero, but there is no upper bound on potential inflation.

artbystorms | 19 hours ago

America about to learn what hyper-inflation is.

GWBrooks | 18 hours ago

No country with reserve-currency status has experienced hyperinflation in the 20th or 21st centuries. Germany in the early 1920s is the counterfactual, but by the time hyperinflation hit the country had lost its reserve-currency status (WWI loss, Treaty of Versailles, etc.)

Doesn't mean it's impossible; it does mean we're a long way from it right now.

nostrademons | 18 hours ago

The reserve currency status disappears first, as your post mentions.

morbie5 | 17 hours ago

Which no one (both our allies or enemies) actually wants to happen (contrary to what reddit thinks)

nostrademons | 16 hours ago

Reserve currency status is an emergent property of the global economy, not something that any one party decides upon. It’s just the currency that everybody else collectively decides is most stable, universal, and likely to be accepted by the other participants.

If those properties are lost and the reserve currency becomes unstable or non-universal, it ceases to be the reserve currency, regardless of what people want. Indeed, the decline can be extremely rapid as other countries dump their reserves before they become worthless, looking out for their own national self-interest even if it would be overall better off for everybody had it just maintained its reserve currency status. It’s one of those situations, like climate change, where if everybody could just do the logical thing we’d all be better off, and yet that doesn’t happen because people need to protect their own interests.

The-Magic-Sword | 16 hours ago

Kind of, but it's also self-stabilizing since a lot of entities that make that determination have a vested interest in the dollar.

logosobscura | 10 hours ago

That interest was ‘I can buy oil with dollars’ on the basis that US military assets and technology could ensure the free flow of said oil and security of those who produce the oil. That bargain is as dead as Bretton-Woods.

Appropriate_Scar_262 | 3 hours ago

It has been, but the US being hostile to allied investors and threatening to intervene with the Fed and change how we handle our debt is making investors weary, which in turn is driving up interest rates, which in turn is driving up debt, which again is making investors weary because the US seems like they're going to default/print their way out, repeat.

Ambulating-meatbag | 17 hours ago

So the one time it happened was to a country experiencing exactly the same scenario as USA, got it, failed wars check, spiraling debt check, dictator takes power check.

Born_Worldliness2558 | 17 hours ago

Reserve currency status is already disappearing. The writing is on the wall. Too bad illiteracy rates are so high.

eskjcSFW | 18 hours ago

No country has experienced it yet...

ToastedandTripping | 17 hours ago

Yup and as more and more countries move towards the BRICS block that deals in Yen, America will suddenly find out that the "world reserve currency" is just a title they've given themselves and no longer the reality.

I think this shockwave will cause western banking collapse which will undermine the entire international banking system and lead to the official change to Yen worldwide.

Born_Worldliness2558 | 17 hours ago

*Yuen, not yen. Japan isn't in BRICS. But yeah, I agree with the rest of it.

raptorMk1 | 16 hours ago

It’s actually Yuan

2starsucks2 | an hour ago

So if Germany can lose it's status, why can't the US?

Magjee | 17 hours ago

No country with reserve currency status meandered there was into a war either

The-Magic-Sword | 16 hours ago

There might be some things that can be done about it, but they don't play very well with the poor international relations synonymous with the Trump Administration's approach to trade.

m77je | 18 hours ago

If America has hyperinflation, will we be allowed to post about bitcoin here?

Born_Worldliness2558 | 17 hours ago

Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme. It will go first.

Substantial_Pick6897 | 34 minutes ago

I'm not very knowledgeable about crypto but if people have to start selling it off to cover for hyperinflation, won't the price of crypto go down as there are more sellers and fewer buyers? Or are people expecting the market to remain stable somehow?

Born_Worldliness2558 | 17 hours ago

Ahh yes the Zimbabwe school of economics. A real classic.

ShadowTacoTuesday | 19 hours ago

Printing money would mean lowering interest rates not raising them. That’s how money is printed: encouraging more money to enter circulation via borrowing from the federal reserve.

nostrademons | 17 hours ago

It doesn’t have to be lowered interest rates in nominal terms, only a rate lower than the neutral rate (r*). If r* increases (say, because of a supply shock, or capital stock destroyed in war, or just waning demographics), then holding nominal central bank rates constant will result in inflation.

Drss4 | 18 hours ago

Right and how is interest paid? They just pull out of their ass? The system has been broken since 2020, they owed too much debt and now they have to print money to pay the interest.

Test-NetConnection | 11 hours ago

Erm, no? Printing money is inflationary by definition. One only needs to look at the shock from the COVID era for proof. Furthermore, printing money results in higher interest rates. The value of a dollar goes down, which means investors demand more dollars. Why would an investor purchase a bond with a 4% yield when the inflation is 7%?

PhilosophyEasy71 | 7 hours ago

Scott Bessent and other Wall Street goons are already talking about intentionally defaulting on US debt

Either_Job4716 | 15 hours ago

You’re right that the government can print the money for the interest payments.

What you’re shaky on is inflation.

Inflation can only happen when there’s too much nominal spending for a given level of production.

Allowing more interest-bearing assets on the bond market is how the Fed decreases nominal spending and thus brings inflation under control.

Sure, the government might be printing more money for interest payments but more treasuries outstanding absorbs a much greater quantity of money out of the financial sector and parks it with the government; higher rates themselves also lead to a decrease in lending, borrowing and spending across the entire economy by making private sector debt more expensive.

You can’t have inflation if the total level of spending is being kept in check, can you? In our system interest-bearing government debt is how we do that.

watch-nerd | 20 hours ago

Inflationary effects due to oil price increases also nudging rates up.

SilencedObserver | 20 hours ago

The US is a War Country that requires War to maintain it's Economy. The only currency the USA has left is violence, and without it, their dollar collapses.

Buckle up, this is where Hyper-Inflation starts until the world shifts to another world currency.

lopix | 20 hours ago

Like Iran offering to let oil through the Strait if it is purchased with Chinese Yuan?

edit: pointed out I can't spell, fixed

SilencedObserver | 20 hours ago

Exactly like that.

Venezuela was immediately invaded as soon as they sold oil in currency that wasn't USD.

Let that sink in.

The USA is speed-running it's collapse while pretending it's for security.

Everyone's free to believe what they want, of course.

wayne099 | 19 hours ago

Chinese don’t want their currency to become reserve currency. Because they are mostly export driven economy.

Optimal_Beyond_1600 | 19 hours ago

Yeah I keep seeing people talking about how the US will lose reserve currency status to China but that would be in direct conflict with how their whole economy is structured.

Cre0na | 9 hours ago

Plus their currency is pegged to other currencies... Including the dollar.

There's no great options for a new reserve currency, but the only one I could see supplanting the greenback is the Euro.

wayne099 | 17 hours ago

These are same people who did 1+1=3 in their math class. So don’t expect them to understand how economy works.

PicoRascar | 18 hours ago

Xi has made clear his government's ambition to make the Renminbi a reserve currency. I think they even publicly detailed their plan for making it happen. It's a very long ways off but I think they're trying to expedite it.

phonyToughCrayBrave | 11 hours ago

citation? i mean even owning yuan is almost impossible for outsiders right now so…

Naurgul | 9 hours ago

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3341958/china-strong-currency-mission-make-yuan-global-reserve-xi

rintzscar | 18 hours ago

Except it's not going to be the Yuan, it's going to be the Euro. Nobody trusts China. And they themselves don't want their currency to be reserve.

averysmallbeing | 11 hours ago

Strait, ffs

Cinq_A_Sept | an hour ago

This is the thing. Just because something has never happened before, doesn’t mean it won’t happen now. People can get so blinded by this, it amazes me. Step back and look at the bigger picture. The US has become a pariah and the World is no longer supporting us. Any and all alternatives will be explored. USD days are numbered, sadly.

AutoThwart | 20 hours ago

Is there any legitimatacy to this statement? The US has an exceptional range of industry and access to natural resources and technical/industrial workforce.

The way you talk, is like the US must obligatorily wage war or else it won't thrive, which almost excuses our crap government's decision making.

Nonsense.

SilencedObserver | 19 hours ago

> Is there any legitimatacy to this statement?

Look at the power that is the US. It comes from it's Navy.

> The US has an exceptional range of industry and access to natural resources and technical/industrial workforce.

Exceptional range of industry, yes.

Access to the necessary natural resources to keep it's military industrial complex afloat? Not so much.

The United States requires minerals that can be found in the countries he's been bullying, namely Greenland and Canada, and those are power plays to try to decouple from the steel manufacturing supply that comes from China.

Without Steel, the US can't wage war. The United States, without a steel source, dies 20 years from now. These power struggles aren't 4 year cycle problems; they're longer, more drawn out issues that have real table stakes, and the United States is losing, bigtime.

> The way you talk, is like the US must obligatorily wage war or else it won't thrive, which almost excuses our crap government's decision making.

Show me an example counter to the fact that the United States has and continues to wage wars to support a country that the United States decided should exist in the 1900's.

I'll wait.

Call it nonsense, or call it paying attention, but you're the one asking for more information. I'm not asking you to believe me - just look around for more information and make your own judgements.

Edit: Or, you could, know, keep watching the news.

Xeynon | 19 hours ago

> The United States requires minerals that can be found in the countries he's been bullying, namely Greenland and Canada, and those are power plays to try to decouple from the steel manufacturing supply that comes from China.

These minerals can also be found in the US. And you can also trade for them instead of going to war for them, which is actually a better way to do it. Don't mistake Trump's belligerent grandiose idiocy for an inescapable law of nature that would apply no matter who was in charge. Leaders matter.

> Without Steel, the US can't wage war. The United States, without a steel source, dies 20 years from now.

Do you think the US can't produce its own steel? This is complete nonsense.

Spam_Hand | 10 hours ago

>Do you think the US can't produce its own steel? This is completely nonsense.

I don't think this is complete nonsense at all. You're correct in saying that we can produce steel, but to become even close to self sustaining in the realm of steel production would likely take a complete economic overhaul and we would probably push close to that hypothetical 20 years the other poster mentioned.

Things like that can't just be turned on an off on a whim. Construction prices went up quickly because of those new restrictions on "Buy American, Build American" - you could no longer use any foreign sourced products on any part during the production of steel at the beginning, middle, or end. Those costs went up because we didn't have the means to make those changes as quickly as needed to be compliant on a mass scale.

AutoThwart | 19 hours ago

At this point the information I'm asking is what exactly are you trying to say because I'm not getting it.. the U.S. will have a strong economy regardless of if it's fighting dumb wars or not.

The U.S. doesn't NEED to wage these wars for Israel, or empire-expanding, nation-building, or any other kind of wars for the sake of it's economy.

The U.S. can be isolationist in international policy and it would be JUST FiNE.

SilencedObserver | 19 hours ago

> The U.S. can be isolationist in international policy and it would be JUST FiNE.

That's basically what we're going to find out.

AutoThwart | 19 hours ago

How are we going to possibly find that out at this point? The U.S. has been consistently at war and throwing money away for 24 years. That ship has sailed bro.

GTR_11 | 19 hours ago

I think he trying to say is:

  1. Fiat Currency backed up by Petro Dollar is being compromised.

  2. Only country that can refine rear earth minerals is China. Over 90% is being supplied by them. They put sanctions on US after tariff war. Without them you can't make this high accuracy missiles and rest of the military stuff.

MegaThot2023 | 15 hours ago

The reason that the US doesn't have domestic rare earth mineral capacity is because its cheaper to get them from China. If that source goes away, an alternative will be found very quickly.

Sayhei2mylittlefrnd | 19 hours ago

The US since the 60’s was designed to consume from its allies as it became a net negative exporter. Looks at what the US produces vs what it requires to consume — nearly all major items require imports from its allies.

Xeynon | 19 hours ago

This is nonsense. The US economy has done extremely well when it hasn't been at war over the last thirty years. It was killing it in the 1990s during Clinton's presidency.

SilencedObserver | 19 hours ago

> This is nonsense.

Why? Because of your correlative thinking which I'll respond to, next?

> The US economy has done extremely well when it hasn't been at war over the last thirty years.

This is exactly my point.

The US hasn't not-been at war for the last 30 years; it's been off an on, and the economy does great when it's not at war, but it requires that war in order for it's economy to work.

That is the whole argument.

It all started in 1971 and the continued manipulation of the world reserve currency has other countries in a tight situation where they have to play the game or else fight the fight.

The United States currently fights the biggest fight, and that's why USD is the world reserve. As soon as someone whos the world there's a bigger power than the US Navy, people won't care about USD anymore, and the fed in the US knows it; they've been talking about it worryingly since the money injected during Covid.

Let me be clear: USD is on a race to hyper-inflation and there isn't a single thing anyone can do about it. It is why mortgage rates are expected to rise when we're in the current situation we're in, when policy levers would suggest lowering rates is the solution, but lowering rates means near-negative interest, and while other countries have paid their citizens to fix their economy, the greedy capitalist Americans will not.

And so again, believe what you want, but calling it nonsense is an ignorant statement defending a mental state that doesn't want to look at the facts. The facts have been laid out in front of us for the last 30 years. You not being aware and only waking up to it now doesn't make it any less true.

Edit: bolded the important part.

Xeynon | 19 hours ago

The US is a large, diverse economy which does lots of things well, most of which have nothing to do with war.

It's a dumb argument.

Brokenandburnt | 17 hours ago

He is not saying that War in itself is inherently what creates value.
Contrary to the masses who thinks that War is good for the economy because the military suppliers get big contracts, in reality war is always a giant money drain.

What the US earns from War is staying on top, not necessarily in power. For instance Iran in the 50's who nationalized BP oil because none of the profits stayed in Iran. The US and UK swiftly arranged a coup and military support for the Sha.
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was also about oil.

Now, war isn't the only way to gain influence, there's also the soft power which works wonders to secure sweetheart deals for resources. But that soft power is subsequently enhanced by the numerous small interventions the US performs so often that they never hit the News, but other goverments see them. And if you are a small, poor, developing country, you don't wish to cross that power.

No threats made, no need for antagonistic diplomacy. The soft power and USAID was the sweet, sweet carrot. The unquestionable might of the US Navy is the stick. The Navy never sailed around the world for the benefit of that world. It was showing the flag, showing everyone that stick so it stayed in everyone's mind. The same with all US bases around the world. They were never about protecting the country it was placed in, except as a secondary effect. Those based are there to extend and enhance the ability of the US to project power.

The US has waged war to protect it's interests, thats what's meant when someone says that the US is dependent on Wars. Now that the Trump administration has effectively killed the soft power, might is all that's left. Turning isolationist in the western hemisphere thus becomes a problem. No presence, no Stick. No USAID, no carrot. Which means the importance of US will vane.

Remember, countries don't have friends. They have interests.

Xeynon | 17 hours ago

Many of the wars the US has launched were not in its interest though.

Brokenandburnt | 17 hours ago

Oh? Please do tell.

Xeynon | 16 hours ago

The Iraq and Afghanistan wars cost the US trillions of dollars and thousands of lives and left us in a worse situation security wise.

SilencedObserver | 15 hours ago

Thank you for articulating what i was implying, but more clearly. You nailed it.

Spirited-Tie8758 | 7 hours ago

read this guys comment history and you will see not worth engaging

Xeynon | 7 hours ago

He can't use basic English words correctly so I'd already worked that out. Blocked him so won't here from him again.

2starsucks2 | an hour ago

So the US is in a war now and you are saying the dollar is still going to collapse? What kind of logic is this?

pseudonominom | 14 hours ago

It’s hard to convince yourself they didn’t know this would happen.

The GOP are traitors.

citiclosethrowaway | 7 hours ago

It already is unsustainable. People keep saying we’re close to unsustainable, but don’t realize we are already here in the debt death spiral.

stfzendjjv | 16 hours ago

Hard to be reserve currency if you cook the books. Unfortunately the Trump administration is doing just this and Chinese govt reporting may now be more trustworthy.

Ghoulius-Caesar | 19 hours ago

I used to buy US bonds… not planning on it after the orange turd called my country “the 51st State.” That money is now going to inverse market ETFs. I’ll make money watching Trump burn down the stock market. Call it revenge, but it’s calculated, I have zero faith in American leadership right now.

EarningsPal | 19 hours ago

Bond:

  1. Give me $1000.

  2. I give you $50 of your own money back, per year, for 10 years. Total given back, $500.

You aged 10 years to get back your $500 you gave me 10 years ago.

  1. 10 years later, I borrow $1000 from someone else and give you back your $1000 that will buy 50% less than 10 years ago.

Now I have another 10 years to give that new person $500 of their own money back.

  1. During that 10 years I will run the government poorly, expanding the money supply faster to enrich asset holder that don’t hold bonds.

Alone-Promise-8904 | 9 hours ago

Say bye-bye to tax refunds in the coming years. Congress should be increasing the tax rates and collecting more taxes. Too bad so many people in the IRS were let go -- that could have helped with collections.

Dull_Bird3340 | 11 hours ago

You'd think this is the one thing that would make Republicans actually do their job,, unless they see their job now as the same as Trump's, which is to make our main enemies stronger

goodbodha | 18 hours ago

Fed will buy bonds and raise rates, wait for recession and sell some bonds while cutting rates. Alternatively they will just let rates at the in longer end climb and buy while keeping shorter term rates steady and wait for recession.

The recession will cure the bulk of the issue.

Chemical-Fault-7331 | 15 hours ago

It always seemed weird to me that a country’s government can buy its own debt issued by its government. Like that meme with the power strip and its own plug plugging into it. Infinite money glitch.

Upper_Author2105 | 13 hours ago

Infinite currency glitch but value of that currency relative to other currencies really limits the effectiveness of the glitch.

goodbodha | 15 hours ago

Why can corporations do buybacks?

PlanetCosmoX | 45 minutes ago

Website is broken, nothing but mush, can’t read a single word.

Perhaps Fortune should be banned from the forum, in favour of websites who have competent programmers.

/s

m77je | 18 hours ago

Yes, they may run the money printer for trillions to pay for the accelerating debt and the new forever war, wiping out anyone who saves in dollars.

But the REAL scam is bitcoin! /s

devliegende | 16 hours ago

I think you are confusing the concepts of "accounting your savings in dollars" and "saving in dollars". Not the same thing. For example: People who save in bitcoin still account for their savings in dollars.

It's a bit like confusing a unit of distance like a kilometer for distance itself.

m77je | 13 hours ago

No I am talking about people who save in dollars. Of course anyone who does this would be regarded as a fool for getting wrecked by inflation. They should instead seek something inflation resistant like stock market or real estate. But those things are investments, not money.

devliegende | 9 hours ago

Sincerely doubt anyone outside gansters and corrupt politicians still keeps stacks of cash in their freezers