Some of these US treasury yields are up quite a bit too. High levels.
Tough economy we’re in. It was before the Iran ordeal, as we’ll politely refer to it. We know it’s a quagmire, but so was the casino business for our commander in chief, when he was running that. He could break a steel ball with a rubber hammer, I swear.
it's quite something. All he had to do was literally nothing. The economy had a lot of momentum from the Biden years. Inflation was on track to be on target per the feds goal. Full employment, Covid basically behind us. Oh and the oil industry was OVER SUPPLIED. Saud was tired of holding out while everyone else grew their production. We're talking MILLIONS of bbls over supplied PER DAY. 2026 was going to see 40 maybe even 30 dollar oil if Trump had just done literally nothing.
Instead he ruined all our relationships with our trade partners. Completely disrupted the global economy and more importantly our local economies. Taxed the shit out of Americans while doing this. Then starts a war with a country that can disrupt 20 million bbls/ of oil per day. A war we can't win.
This is truely baffling and the worst part about it is that outside of reddit not a lot is talked about on these very subjects.
People are genuinely scared of that ego maniac that they wont even say these very simple to verify facts. Nor will his own party just tell him to settle it the fuck down.
They were handed a gift honestly. A boom time if you will. Not for oil, but for EVERYONE else.
Instead they let Trump do what he wants and now, hopefully, many will be losing their jobs. Either way though recovering from this will take several administrations doing things perfectly and literally unwinding everything he did.
Sadly we have an even newer tax. The Iran tax that generations will be paying.
In 2020, he could have stood back and done nothing about Covid. Let the existing Federal machinery work. Dr Fauci would have gladly let the President take the credit. He would have sailed to an easy re-election.
He's not as much destroying as he is converting it all to cash in pocket. Selling physical assets as well as the hopes and dreams of Americans, our very futures. The exchange rate is terrible and he needs to trash a trillion in hard-earned value to put a billion into his accounts, but he's happy with that deal. The GOP gets a taste so they not only let him, they hire thugs to attack anyone who criticizes him or calls attention to it.
I know I'm a nobody, but before the 2024 election, I've said that whoever was in office would preside over an ongoing economic crisis that's going critical. The debt was always going to reach $40 trillion, the deficit could not be shrunk quickly enough to prevent that debt level.
The BLS has been failing to deliver reliable numbers and statistics even back in 2023 (the 2023 employment revision down almost 1 million jobs was a HUGE siren nobody listened to), before they admitted in 2025 to being underfunded and understaffed. Most of the time, wealth and power that directs much of the US vote falsely believed that whoever was in the WH was irrelevant, but Trump demonstrated that you don't need a FULL coup to take over; you just need enough useful idiots and sycophantic maniacs.
I think they were counting on the collapse, this is the liquidation of America because they know the enormous bubble of our stock market and economy can NEVER tackle the debt we're facing.
So they'll scuttle the US government, destroy the currency, and sneak away while Americans quarrel over the scraps.
Perhaps it's my doomerism but I just don't see a way that the united States of America as a federal entity can survive. The only way forward is considerable taxation on the American people, which would destabilize and damage a number states. Those State economies are the last remaining economic life raft for Americans before plunging into total and complete anarchy.
I don't think that states will willingly accept onerous taxation for bad debts written by this federal government, especially given the adversarial posture of this Federal government to allies as well as states that "didn't vote for them." The fact remains that most tax "giver" states are blue, and taker states are red. Blue will alliance with blue, but the red states failing will need assistance from other red states, and that will only come with territorial expansion.
The fact that someone like Donald Trump could even get elected, let alone elected twice, shows the lack of confidence in the continuation of this Federal entity.
If another viable option exists, I'm happy to hear it. But given the US military posturing, the harm done in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and regional escalation threatening Bab El-Mandeb transit, I don't know how the United States Federal government can use $24 trillion in GDP (the largest globally) to pay down $40 trillion in debt and $1 trillion in debt service annually without serious budgetary oversight; which America has refused for decades. Remember 9/11 took the headlines away from the Pentagon admitting they had "lost" trillions of dollars.
Trump was probably the last nail in the coffin for the Balkanization of the US.
The federal government acting so nakedly partisan removes a lot of their legitimacy, and their seeming favoritism for the "taker states" doesn't go unnoticed in the "giver states".
The equity and balance that the federal government is supposed to impose to keep these "separate but equal" states functioning and together has completely gone away. People will increasingly ask what value does system have? Years of poor financial planning in the name of short term profits have destroyed American ability to manage their economy without it becoming a massive social and political disaster.
The individualistic culture of the US will only serve to bolster these notions too. Americans have no sense of unity and community, and have been poisoned by propaganda to the point multiple generations will be lost simply deconstructing the American exceptionalist lie.
They're in for a hard road, and it's entirely their own fault.
Just to add: America famously had violent polarization over slavery, and much of that polarization has remained. Racism is the obvious, but now economic factors have created have's and have-not's, and generations of systemic "winners" and "losers" of the system now trading their anger for indoctrination, their discontent into active harm.
Im nobody, but during Trump's first term, I saw voting for him as a small act of terrorism that people saw necessary to upend a corrupt system that had left them behind; at least as far as they saw things. Every MAGAt voter offering a small grain of black powder that, alone, flashed and disappeared; but in a massive keg, or several? Could topple anything.
Regarding this comment, for anyone here that's knowledgeable on US bonds, I have a question: the 10yr has been below 5% for almost 30 years, with few exceptions. But before that the norm was for it to be over 5%. So what are the primary reasons for the freakout over that yield surpassing the 5% threshold?
My only thoughts are:
Because we've been sub-5% for so long that our current economy is built on that expectation, and a reversion would cause severe economic strain
Because it would expedite the point at which the national debt becomes unserviceable
> Because it would expedite the point at which the national debt becomes unserviceable
This is the bigger issue now. If you borrow at 5%+ your debt will run up much faster. We are not growing anywhere close to 5% (closer to 1.5% atm), so our debt will grow faster than our economy. Eventually it will hit a breaking point where too much of our government's spending will be only for covering the debt payments. How can we grow when so much of our money is being diverted to pay for our past?
I remember rates were getting "low" as in low enough to consider refinancing like a day before the Iran War haha. Think mortgage rates were about 5.99%. They were also dropping before it looked like Trump might win again before his tariff rants on the campaign trail.
>Oil prices surged more than 3% after U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on the Strait of Hormuz, marking their first military action in a month. The Trump administration just days earlier had shifted its focus to economic pressure, and a return to open conflict would be dangerous for the region.
>Brent crude, the international standard, jumped 3.8% to $91.40 per barrel early Monday. U.S. benchmark crude oil was trading 3.8% higher at $86.58 per barrel.
>“The Middle East had finally gone quiet enough for oil traders to start sanding some of the war premium out of crude. Then Sunday arrived, with a reminder that quiet in the Strait of Hormuz is not the same as peace,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.
We’re slow walking our way towards a cliff’s edge. Treasury rates, dwindling oil reserves, the AI bubble. The economy has been “good” (ie growing gdp with fairly low unemployment) since Covid, but instead of getting our fiscal ship in order we’ve done the opposite and will be unable to respond with the stimulus needed to deal with the next recession. I feel like we’re purposely trying to redo 2008 when a more normal dot com burst was the more likely scenario. But who knows…
082426grateful | 15 hours ago
Some of these US treasury yields are up quite a bit too. High levels.
Tough economy we’re in. It was before the Iran ordeal, as we’ll politely refer to it. We know it’s a quagmire, but so was the casino business for our commander in chief, when he was running that. He could break a steel ball with a rubber hammer, I swear.
Defiant-Classroom-20 | 14 hours ago
It takes a special talent to effortlessly destroy everything you touch
bdiddy_ | 12 hours ago
it's quite something. All he had to do was literally nothing. The economy had a lot of momentum from the Biden years. Inflation was on track to be on target per the feds goal. Full employment, Covid basically behind us. Oh and the oil industry was OVER SUPPLIED. Saud was tired of holding out while everyone else grew their production. We're talking MILLIONS of bbls over supplied PER DAY. 2026 was going to see 40 maybe even 30 dollar oil if Trump had just done literally nothing.
Instead he ruined all our relationships with our trade partners. Completely disrupted the global economy and more importantly our local economies. Taxed the shit out of Americans while doing this. Then starts a war with a country that can disrupt 20 million bbls/ of oil per day. A war we can't win.
This is truely baffling and the worst part about it is that outside of reddit not a lot is talked about on these very subjects.
People are genuinely scared of that ego maniac that they wont even say these very simple to verify facts. Nor will his own party just tell him to settle it the fuck down.
They were handed a gift honestly. A boom time if you will. Not for oil, but for EVERYONE else.
Instead they let Trump do what he wants and now, hopefully, many will be losing their jobs. Either way though recovering from this will take several administrations doing things perfectly and literally unwinding everything he did.
Sadly we have an even newer tax. The Iran tax that generations will be paying.
CliftonForce | an hour ago
This happened before.
In 2020, he could have stood back and done nothing about Covid. Let the existing Federal machinery work. Dr Fauci would have gladly let the President take the credit. He would have sailed to an easy re-election.
But he had to go sabotage it.
Z3r0sama2017 | 14 hours ago
Those big strong hands of his are like WMD's
7ddlysuns | 14 hours ago
Strong? Makeup covered bruised hands more like it
Slunkx | 10 hours ago
Hands strong enough for a bitch slap.
sereneandeternal | 14 hours ago
And it takes a special country to elect that special talent for a second term in office, and remove all guardrails against that special talent.
Moarbrains | 11 hours ago
The guard rails were mostly about lying to keep up appearances.
Any_Sale2030 | 7 hours ago
Please note that nearly all cities and suburbs did not vote for Trump. Google a county level election map.
VindicoAtrum | 14 hours ago
But a lot less talent to enrich yourself and family/friends when you can lie your way to the Presidency.
makemeking706 | 11 hours ago
Average two year old.
SidewaysFancyPrance | 9 hours ago
He's not as much destroying as he is converting it all to cash in pocket. Selling physical assets as well as the hopes and dreams of Americans, our very futures. The exchange rate is terrible and he needs to trash a trillion in hard-earned value to put a billion into his accounts, but he's happy with that deal. The GOP gets a taste so they not only let him, they hire thugs to attack anyone who criticizes him or calls attention to it.
Any_Sale2030 | 7 hours ago
No. Just evil intent.
vertigo3pc | 12 hours ago
I know I'm a nobody, but before the 2024 election, I've said that whoever was in office would preside over an ongoing economic crisis that's going critical. The debt was always going to reach $40 trillion, the deficit could not be shrunk quickly enough to prevent that debt level.
The BLS has been failing to deliver reliable numbers and statistics even back in 2023 (the 2023 employment revision down almost 1 million jobs was a HUGE siren nobody listened to), before they admitted in 2025 to being underfunded and understaffed. Most of the time, wealth and power that directs much of the US vote falsely believed that whoever was in the WH was irrelevant, but Trump demonstrated that you don't need a FULL coup to take over; you just need enough useful idiots and sycophantic maniacs.
I think they were counting on the collapse, this is the liquidation of America because they know the enormous bubble of our stock market and economy can NEVER tackle the debt we're facing.
So they'll scuttle the US government, destroy the currency, and sneak away while Americans quarrel over the scraps.
082426grateful | 10 hours ago
I see your points and agree with you. No plan to cut spending was shown or even hinted at from 2021-2024.
Running the economy on debt is absolutely bipartisan. And let’s keep it mind when late 2028 comes, when the old party comes back into power.
It’ll be same shit, different day. Bipartisan, protecting the powerful at the sacrifice of the proletariat.
vertigo3pc | 10 hours ago
I don't see a 2028 election as feasible.
Perhaps it's my doomerism but I just don't see a way that the united States of America as a federal entity can survive. The only way forward is considerable taxation on the American people, which would destabilize and damage a number states. Those State economies are the last remaining economic life raft for Americans before plunging into total and complete anarchy.
I don't think that states will willingly accept onerous taxation for bad debts written by this federal government, especially given the adversarial posture of this Federal government to allies as well as states that "didn't vote for them." The fact remains that most tax "giver" states are blue, and taker states are red. Blue will alliance with blue, but the red states failing will need assistance from other red states, and that will only come with territorial expansion.
The fact that someone like Donald Trump could even get elected, let alone elected twice, shows the lack of confidence in the continuation of this Federal entity.
If another viable option exists, I'm happy to hear it. But given the US military posturing, the harm done in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and regional escalation threatening Bab El-Mandeb transit, I don't know how the United States Federal government can use $24 trillion in GDP (the largest globally) to pay down $40 trillion in debt and $1 trillion in debt service annually without serious budgetary oversight; which America has refused for decades. Remember 9/11 took the headlines away from the Pentagon admitting they had "lost" trillions of dollars.
jellyhessman | 9 hours ago
Trump was probably the last nail in the coffin for the Balkanization of the US.
The federal government acting so nakedly partisan removes a lot of their legitimacy, and their seeming favoritism for the "taker states" doesn't go unnoticed in the "giver states".
The equity and balance that the federal government is supposed to impose to keep these "separate but equal" states functioning and together has completely gone away. People will increasingly ask what value does system have? Years of poor financial planning in the name of short term profits have destroyed American ability to manage their economy without it becoming a massive social and political disaster.
The individualistic culture of the US will only serve to bolster these notions too. Americans have no sense of unity and community, and have been poisoned by propaganda to the point multiple generations will be lost simply deconstructing the American exceptionalist lie.
They're in for a hard road, and it's entirely their own fault.
vertigo3pc | 6 hours ago
Just to add: America famously had violent polarization over slavery, and much of that polarization has remained. Racism is the obvious, but now economic factors have created have's and have-not's, and generations of systemic "winners" and "losers" of the system now trading their anger for indoctrination, their discontent into active harm.
Im nobody, but during Trump's first term, I saw voting for him as a small act of terrorism that people saw necessary to upend a corrupt system that had left them behind; at least as far as they saw things. Every MAGAt voter offering a small grain of black powder that, alone, flashed and disappeared; but in a massive keg, or several? Could topple anything.
brainrotbro | 13 hours ago
Regarding this comment, for anyone here that's knowledgeable on US bonds, I have a question: the 10yr has been below 5% for almost 30 years, with few exceptions. But before that the norm was for it to be over 5%. So what are the primary reasons for the freakout over that yield surpassing the 5% threshold?
My only thoughts are:
smackrock | 12 hours ago
> Because it would expedite the point at which the national debt becomes unserviceable
This is the bigger issue now. If you borrow at 5%+ your debt will run up much faster. We are not growing anywhere close to 5% (closer to 1.5% atm), so our debt will grow faster than our economy. Eventually it will hit a breaking point where too much of our government's spending will be only for covering the debt payments. How can we grow when so much of our money is being diverted to pay for our past?
dust4ngel | 12 hours ago
> what are the primary reasons for the freakout over that yield surpassing the 5% threshold?
what you said, and:
SwindlingAccountant | 13 hours ago
I remember rates were getting "low" as in low enough to consider refinancing like a day before the Iran War haha. Think mortgage rates were about 5.99%. They were also dropping before it looked like Trump might win again before his tariff rants on the campaign trail.
00Boner | 15 hours ago
From the Article
>Oil prices surged more than 3% after U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on the Strait of Hormuz, marking their first military action in a month. The Trump administration just days earlier had shifted its focus to economic pressure, and a return to open conflict would be dangerous for the region.
>Brent crude, the international standard, jumped 3.8% to $91.40 per barrel early Monday. U.S. benchmark crude oil was trading 3.8% higher at $86.58 per barrel.
>“The Middle East had finally gone quiet enough for oil traders to start sanding some of the war premium out of crude. Then Sunday arrived, with a reminder that quiet in the Strait of Hormuz is not the same as peace,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.
handsoapdispenser | 6 hours ago
The war will end Jan 21 2029. Oil traders should price it in.
rollem | 11 hours ago
We’re slow walking our way towards a cliff’s edge. Treasury rates, dwindling oil reserves, the AI bubble. The economy has been “good” (ie growing gdp with fairly low unemployment) since Covid, but instead of getting our fiscal ship in order we’ve done the opposite and will be unable to respond with the stimulus needed to deal with the next recession. I feel like we’re purposely trying to redo 2008 when a more normal dot com burst was the more likely scenario. But who knows…