Friends,
No one knows what Trump is going to do from minute to minute, least of all Trump. But it’s looking ever more likely he’ll be exiting Iran within days, declaring his “excursion” into it (as he’s termed his war) a major victory — and then changing the subject.
On Friday, Trump posted on his social media site that “we are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East.”
Today, Monday, in a post written in all caps, Trump said the U.S. and Iran had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” He said “they want very much to make a deal. We’d like to make a deal too.”
He added that he hopes the Strait of Hormuz would be opened soon. Asked who would control the strait, Trump said, “Maybe me,” adding that the new Iranian leader would also play a role in controlling the strait, a vital global shipping lane.
Despite Iran’s denial that any such talks are underway, oil prices tumbled and the stock market roared.
He’s about to wind down and exit because he doesn’t give a damn about anything except maintaining his wealth and power — and the war is now costing him both.
It’s hurting his financial backers in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar — whose wealth has been seriously diminished by the war and whose vulnerability has been exposed. Even luxury resorts like Dubai, frequented by some of America’s biggest investors from the Middle East, are under fire.
It’s pissing off Trump’s wealthy political backers at home — who are getting pummeled as the U.S. stock market sinks under the weight of the war.
It’s infuriating American voters, as gasoline sells for nearly $4 a gallon — causing Republicans to become ever more anxious about a political backlash in the midterm elections. Most were elected on Trump’s coattails in the 2024 election, in which Trump promised to reduce prices and avoid foreign entanglements — rather than do the exact opposite.
So, forget regime change. Forget freedom for Iranians. Forget “obliterating” Iran’s nuclear capabilities (which Trump claimed he accomplished last June).
Trump will soon say he vanquished Iran’s military and defense capacities, destroyed its economy, and decapitated its leadership.
Job over. Mission accomplished. Iran obliterated (again).
Now, Trump will wait until Friday to give Iran time to open the Strait of Hormuz. Then, what? He’ll leave the job to other countries, claiming that the U.S. doesn’t need the Strait because we produce enough oil on our own (which is untrue because oil prices depend on the global market, and U.S. refiners depend on foreign grades of crude).
And he’ll leave the bombing of Iran to Benjamin Netanyahu, who’d rather continue striking Iran and Hezbollah’s strongholds in Lebanon than stand trial in Israel for bribery and corruption. (Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Friday that the military campaign in Iran would “escalate significantly” this week.)
So what will America have gotten out of Trump’s “excursion”? Zilch. Actually, less than zilch because in many ways we’re worse off than when it started. We’ve lost blood and fortune.
Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed, and the war has cost the U.S. an estimated $18 billion so far, not counting the costs to American consumers of higher-priced energy and food.
The regime in Iran has changed, but there’s been no “regime change.” And the change that’s occurred has been toward a harder, more nationalist, more belligerent Islamic state.
Iran is still hiding its enriched uranium and is presumably more determined than ever to turn it into nuclear warheads.
Trump and Israel may crow about destroying Iranian launchers and missile stocks, but Iran is firing even more ballistic missiles and drones across the Middle East now than it did a week ago — launching new missile attacks on Israeli cities and damaging key energy installations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
On Friday, Iran launched intermediate-range ballistic missiles at the U.S.-U.K. Diego Garcia military base 2,500 miles away. That’s far enough to hit much of Europe.
Iran figures that political and economic pressures are mounting against Trump faster than they are mounting against Iran. While Iran uses cheap drones and missiles to disrupt global supply chains, it’s generating huge profits on its sale of oil (mostly to China), reportedly $8.7 billion in additional oil profits since the war began, driven by a $47 per barrel increase in prices compared to pre-war levels.
On Friday, desperately seeking to lower oil prices, the Trump regime lifted sanctions on Iranian oil currently at sea, which will allow Iran to sell about 140 million barrels of oil, worth about $14 billion, including to the United States.
Iran will demand an even higher price to end the war, such as massive reparations from the U.S. and the expulsion of American military from the region.
Iran is also considering making the Strait of Hormuz into a kind of Iranian toll booth subjecting a third of the world’s shipborne crude oil to payments.
We have no way of knowing whether America will now be more vulnerable to Iran-sponsored terrorism, but the risk seems greater than before Trump launched his war.
All told, there has been no American victory here, only tragedy — although the sociopath in the Oval Office will surely claim victory and lie through his teeth about what he has accomplished.
Make no mistake: This will be a surrender. As Vermont Republican Senator George Aiken suggested in 1966 when the U.S. found itself mired in another unwinnable war, Trump’s only real course of action now is to “declare victory and get out,” which I expect him to do momentarily.