The AI sell-off compared to well-known stock market crashes

Source: kadoa.com
77 points by hubraumhugo 13 hours ago on hackernews | 66 comments

6 Nov 2026

The recent AI sell-off brought a lot of fearmongering headlines. Put next to past stock market crashes, it's only a mild correction for the S&P 500, 6% below its record. Tech fell harder, with the Nasdaq down 11% and chip stocks down 36%, as much as they fell during Covid (35%). We'll be tracking the sell-off here with daily data updates.

The S&P 500 at the close on 6 Nov 2026

Below record
−6%
From its record close

Thursday 5 Nov
−4.4%
Worst day since 4 Apr 2025

Trading days since record
23
Since 6 Oct 2026

Slides that went past 15%
16 of 56
Slides since 1928 that reached 6%

How far the S&P 500 fell below a record close

Each line runs from a record high to the low that followed. Eight of the 16 falls past 15% since 1928 are shown.

Daily closes to 6 Nov 2026

100200300400500600 trading days

Four in five S&P 500 falls of 6% never reached −20%

All 56 falls of 6% or more from a record since 1928, one dot each at its lowest point.

Mild for the S&P 500, a crash for chip stocks

How far each index is below its record now, against the lows of its own best-known past falls. US chip stocks (the PHLX Semiconductor index) are 36% down from their 22 Jun record, as deep as their Covid fall.

Daily closes to 6 Nov 2026

Record−10%−20%−30%−40%−50%−60%−70%−80%−90%S&P 500

Nasdaq

US chip stocks

After dot-com, the S&P 500 took 7 years to recover, chip stocks 18

Years from each index's record close to its first close back at or above it. Prices only: with dividends reinvested, most recoveries were shorter. These are worst cases, for someone who bought at the record.

S&P 500NasdaqUS chip stocks

Great Depression25.0 yearsBefore indexBefore index

1973 oil shock7.5 years5.7 yearsBefore index

1987 crash1.9 years1.9 yearsBefore index

Dot-com7.2 years15.1 years17.7 years

2008 crisis5.5 yearsStill below 2000 highStill below 2000 high

Covid6 months3.5 months3.5 months

20222.0 years2.3 years2.0 years

April 20254 months6.5 months1.2 years

AI sell-offNot yet: 1 month, −6%Not yet: 1 month, −11%Not yet: 4.5 months, −36%

About the data

  • The S&P 500 is the price index, without dividends, from daily closes on Yahoo Finance. Before March 1957 the series is its predecessor, the S&P 90.
  • A fall runs from a record close to the next record, so the 2011 fall sits inside the 2007 to 2013 one. Its depth is the lowest close before the next record.
  • "AI sell-off" is our name for the slide since the 6 October 2026 record.
  • The S&P 500 is not the same index it was in 1929 or 1973: technology is now about a third of it, far more than then, so a tech-led sell-off moves it more than it would have.
  • "Still below 2000 high" means the Nasdaq and chip stocks had not got back to their 2000 records by 2008, so 2008 is part of their dot-com fall, not a fall of its own.
  • How we collect and check the data behind Company Tracker: About.

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